(I realize with the boards being as dead as they are, and with very few people watching college basketball here anymore, this may end up just being me talking to myself in this post, lol. But it's the best way for me to organize some of my thoughts on these guys, and I know at least a few folks here are always interested in reading about the prospects before the draft. So I'll keep this tradition alive.)

I'll list the prospects, you list your thoughts, as detailed or as basic ("he'll be good"/"he'll be sorry") as you want. As meticulously bias-free as possible or as blindly agenda-driven as you want.

Get on record before these guys play a single NBA game as to how you think they'll pan out. Stake claims, "buy stock," etc.

BUT DON'T BE LATE.

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Insanely reductive, but imagine a 6'8 Ben Simmons who has alpha mentality and can shoot 40% from 3 on high volume, and you're getting the idea. He can be your primary scorer, or he can be a terrific facilitator with mismatch height. He's a multi-positional defender with high IQ who's always in the right position. He made multiple end-of-game clutch baskets at Oklahoma State while double and triple teamed.

He showed on Montverde that he can lead an insanely talented roster, facilitate, share the wealth, keep everyone happy, and win. And he carried the load on an Oklahoma State team with very limited talent, dragging them as their primary weapon nearly singlehandedly to a 4 seed. He's just a winner, through and through.

I've heard a couple people whispering that it should be between a couple of guys for the #1 pick, but I think those people are just mining for clicks. Cade is the clear #1 pick, the safest pick for a team looking for their franchise star by a landslide.

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>Insanely reductive, but imagine a 6'8 Ben Simmons who has
>alpha mentality and can shoot 40% from 3 on high volume, and
>you're getting the idea. He can be your primary scorer, or he
>can be a terrific facilitator with mismatch height. He's a
>multi-positional defender with high IQ who's always in the
>right position. He made multiple end-of-game clutch baskets at
>Oklahoma State while double and triple teamed.
>
>He showed on Montverde that he can lead an insanely talented
>roster, facilitate, share the wealth, keep everyone happy, and
>win. And he carried the load on an Oklahoma State team with
>very limited talent, dragging them as their primary weapon
>nearly singlehandedly to a 4 seed. He's just a winner, through
>and through.
>
>I've heard a couple people whispering that it should be
>between a couple of guys for the #1 pick, but I think those
>people are just mining for clicks. Cade is the clear #1 pick,
>the safest pick for a team looking for their franchise star by
>a landslide.

-------------------
I wanna go to where the martyrs went
the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...

There's a very strong chance that they get three lottery picks in this draft alone, four first rounders this year alone, and at least another two first rounders in the next two drafts. Just an absurd collection of talent.

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>There's a very strong chance that they get three lottery
>picks in this draft alone, four first rounders this year
>alone, and at least another two first rounders in the next two
>drafts. Just an absurd collection of talent.

https://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/montverde-academy-eagles-(montverde,fl)/basketball/all_time_roster.htm

Moses Moody might be another top 10 pick..they need to be investigated , how the fuck do we not get players like that but ARKANSAS? does.

I hate college basketball.

-------------------
I wanna go to where the martyrs went
the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...

I think this team has them on depth, but that Simmons/Russell/Embiid trio is hard to beat in terms of purely top three.

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>can shoot 40% from 3 on high volume

who does this currently in the league not named Steph Curry?

unfortunately this kid is probably going to struggle on a bad Detroit team

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

There’s nearly 50 NBA players a season shooting 3 or more 3s per game making 40+%. Nearly two dozen making 40+% on 6+ attempts per game.

Did you not know that?

Even if you don’t think he hits 40% for his career, if you adjust it to 38% from 3 on the volume he’ll shoot… that’s still fantastic. The point is the same regardless of number: dude can actually shoot, and dude wants to take the shots. Combining that with his skill set is formidable.

If you don’t think he’s that franchise type of guy, by all means, let it be known.

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>There’s nearly 50 NBA players a season shooting 3 or more
>3s per game making 40+%. Nearly two dozen making 40+% on 6+
>attempts per game.
>
>Did you not know that?
>
>Even if you don’t think he hits 40% for his career, if you
>adjust it to 38% from 3 on the volume he’ll shoot…
>that’s still fantastic. The point is the same regardless of
>number: dude can actually shoot, and dude wants to take the
>shots. Combining that with his skill set is formidable.
>
>If you don’t think he’s that franchise type of guy, by all
>means, let it be known

You’re mostly right but I’m here to point out as usual that youve been burned for years citing college 3 for nba prospects. It’s a hole different shot in the pros and the game is mostly played differently— though over the last 2-3 there’s been more confluence

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

>You’re mostly right but I’m here to point out as usual that youve been burned for years citing college 3 for nba prospects.

The biggest burns I've faced on this have been players who shoot 3s well but who shot free throws poorly. But Cade shot 85% on nearly 6 attempts a game from the free throw line. I don't think he's that guy.

Outside of that specific category? I think the majority of players who shoot free throws very well and college 3s well correlate to shooting 3s generally well at the next level. There are exceptions, obviously, but college guys who shoot 40%+ from 3 and 85%+ from FT tend to largely have a positive correlation as 3 point shooters in the NBA.

On top of that, considering that Cade faced so many double teams and *still* shot 40% from 3? I mean, this isn't a Justise Winslow popping wide open college 3s at a 40% clip. Cade was doing it all. I have zero concerns there, and nor should anyone who actually watched him play imo.

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>There’s nearly 50 NBA players a season shooting 3 or more
>3s per game making 40+%. Nearly two dozen making 40+% on 6+
>attempts per game.
>
>Did you not know that?
>
>Even if you don’t think he hits 40% for his career, if you
>adjust it to 38% from 3 on the volume he’ll shoot…
>that’s still fantastic. The point is the same regardless of
>number: dude can actually shoot, and dude wants to take the
>shots. Combining that with his skill set is formidable.
>
>If you don’t think he’s that franchise type of guy, by all
>means, let it be known.

on a bad Detroit team no way he shoots that well

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

Long term, he projects as a strong 3 point shooter.

And again, even if he's merely an above average NBA 3 point shooter, that's still incredible when combined with his myriad other skills.

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________________________________________
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

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________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

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________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

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________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

>Did you not know that?

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

>
>>Did you not know that?
>

-------------------
I wanna go to where the martyrs went
the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

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For some content, here are the KenPom rankings for USC under Andy Enfield the last six seasons: 49, 53, 51, 82, 55... 6. The scheme didn't change, the coaching didn't change, the talent level beyond Mobley didn't change-- in fact, the guards were less talented than normal. But Mobley by himself took a team that usually hovers around 50th in the country... to 6th.

Mobley's a stud center, on that Towns/Ayton/Embiid level coming out of college. Honestly even better than Ayton in college as an all-around player. First off, the defense-- he's just so fluid, so smooth, so quick even away from the rim. He's an exceptional rim protector (in this draft, only Isaiah Jackson had a higher block rate), but he can also easily defend in a scheme that switches all 5, and he knows where to be to help. This is the type of big man who can make All-Defense teams before the end of his rookie contract if all goes accordingly.

Usually these sorts of bigs struggle on offense... not Mobley. He's got really good handles for a big, he's a good passer as a big, and he even shot 30% from 3 on over an attempt per game in college, so there's potential for him as a pick and pop guy. He even showed a little bit of shot creation potential as well, even though that's not necessarily who he is at present. So yeah, this body with this skill means All-Star upside. He'd have gone #1 last season.

My only *small* concern-- he's not today the sort of talkative alpha guy you may want as your franchise player. He communicates well, he seems like a great kid, but he's not currently the "give me the ball!" type of guy. (His brother seemed a bit more demonstrative for USC last year, honestly.) He's very young, so that could change, but especially in today's NBA, he feels like the sort of guy who would benefit best from playing alongside an elite guard leader. It's a perimeter game nowadays anyway. That would allow Mobley to do what he does best: defend, pass, create mismatches, do a little shooting, help your team win.

If, say, Houston takes him at 2, I'm not convinced he's the guy to throw the team on his back right away, but if, say, Toronto gets him at 4? Mobley's the guy to put them back over the edge into the playoffs Year 1 imo.

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Too chill for me but I guess he can turn his motor up a notch.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

technically that sounds like Ayton, too

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

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Early on I see him more of a stretch 4 who can grow into a 5. To my eyes he seems so "small." but he has that wingspan. I think Houston takes him because its kind of part of their brand at this point to draft top Center prospects. He also fills a need, even with Wood there.

I think thats a solid core to have with KPJ, Wood, and Mobley. If nothing else its a fun team.



He isn't alpha and I think he'll take a few years and the right system to develop -- but if the team is patient with him he can be a really good developing player. He is just so good and skilled at everything for his size. The floor is someone like Serge Ibaka and I think the ceiling if he can get time to mature skillwise and bodywise -- would be Embiid.

Embiid has shown quite the personality -- but he was nowhere like he is now at Kansas.



>For some content, here are the KenPom rankings for USC under
>Andy Enfield the last six seasons: 49, 53, 51, 82, 55... 6.
>The scheme didn't change, the coaching didn't change, the
>talent level beyond Mobley didn't change-- in fact, the guards
>were less talented than normal. But Mobley by himself took a
>team that usually hovers around 50th in the country... to 6th.
>
>
>Mobley's a stud center, on that Towns/Ayton/Embiid level
>coming out of college. Honestly even better than Ayton in
>college as an all-around player. First off, the defense-- he's
>just so fluid, so smooth, so quick even away from the rim.
>He's an exceptional rim protector (in this draft, only Isaiah
>Jackson had a higher block rate), but he can also easily
>defend in a scheme that switches all 5, and he knows where to
>be to help. This is the type of big man who can make
>All-Defense teams before the end of his rookie contract if all
>goes accordingly.
>
>Usually these sorts of bigs struggle on offense... not Mobley.
>He's got really good handles for a big, he's a good passer as
>a big, and he even shot 30% from 3 on over an attempt per game
>in college, so there's potential for him as a pick and pop
>guy. He even showed a little bit of shot creation potential as
>well, even though that's not necessarily who he is at present.
>So yeah, this body with this skill means All-Star upside. He'd
>have gone #1 last season.
>
>My only *small* concern-- he's not today the sort of talkative
>alpha guy you may want as your franchise player. He
>communicates well, he seems like a great kid, but he's not
>currently the "give me the ball!" type of guy. (His brother
>seemed a bit more demonstrative for USC last year, honestly.)
>He's very young, so that could change, but especially in
>today's NBA, he feels like the sort of guy who would benefit
>best from playing alongside an elite guard leader. It's a
>perimeter game nowadays anyway. That would allow Mobley to do
>what he does best: defend, pass, create mismatches, do a
>little shooting, help your team win.
>
>If, say, Houston takes him at 2, I'm not convinced he's the
>guy to throw the team on his back right away, but if, say,
>Toronto gets him at 4? Mobley's the guy to put them back over
>the edge into the playoffs Year 1 imo.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

Him and Jarrett Allen together are formidable.

------------------
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Great athlete, great skill, but above all else is his feel. He rarely ever looked sped up at the college level like so many of even the best freshmen do. He's just exceptionally patient. The counterargument here could be "well, he was surrounded by more talent than any other freshman in the NCAA, so he could afford to be patient," and, okay, fair argument. But I suspect more likely than not it translates, largely because his feel is just so advanced for his age. Very few OAD PGs have that natural feel-- he might be top 5-8 of the decade in that regard.

He's also a strong on-ball defender, a high motor energy player on that end... which, again, for PGs with his offensive talents, you just so rarely see that combination. On top of all of that, he's clearly the guy who wants the ball in the big moment, a true alpha dog on the perimeter. The one concern I've heard is his perimeter jump shot... but I'm less concerned than those who've griped about this. He shot 34% from 3 on the season, which isn't great... but he shot 38% from 3 on 4 attempts per game against Tier A and B opponents, and in the Tier A games, the biggestt games? He shot 43% from 3 on over 4 attempts a game. And that was in 13 games, which compared to other players in the draft is a good sample size. (Cade, by comparison, played 15 Tier A games. And, to Cade's credit, shot just shy of 40% on over *7* attempts per game in those.)

He's one of four players I'd have taken above LaMelo and Edwards in last year's draft. He just feels like the type of player who's very high floor but still has star potential. And if he ends up in Toronto, as many people are projecting, he'd be genuinely the *perfect* backcourt pairing with VanVleet.

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>He's one of four players I'd have taken above LaMelo and
>Edwards in last year's draft.

wow, really? who are the other 3?

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

The fourth... truthfully, I don't think I've watched enough of Jalen Green to definitively say I'd have taken him over them. That said, Green was better in the G-League than Edwards was in college. Edwards is stronger, more of a bully than Green, but Green is a better shooter, better defender, better passer, and honestly probably the better athlete.

As for taking these guys over Melo... I was higher on Melo than some, but coming into the draft, there's no denying that there were questions. He was a straight-up bad shooter. He made a lot of bad decisions forcing the issue. He was an abysmal defender. Now, I still thought he should've gone #1 overall, because the upside was absurd, and he was the highest ceiling prospect in the draft. But I have fewer questions going into the draft about Suggs and Green than I did going into the draft about Melo.

Now, if you were asking me whether I'd pick one of these guys today or have Melo or Edwards today, knowing what I know now? Yeah, the only one I'd even entertain is Cade. But going into the respective drafts, if these four guys were on the same timeline as Melo and Edwards, I think at least three and probably all four of the guys this year would've gone above Melo and Edwards.

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...and DOESN'T trade Spicy P, they back

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

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<---
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Was trying to think of a good player comparison, and I think Zach LaVine is where I've settled. Monster athlete, one of the best in the draft, insanely quick twitch. Can score from any level, can pull up, can close strong, can stroke off the catch. Decent passer and playmaker. Defense is probably more potential right now than reality, but he showed in flashes the ability to lock down 1 through 3 at a pro level with his speed and athleticism.

And when you remember LaVine at 18 wasn't the scorer or the defender in the Pac-12 that Green at 18 was in the G-League... it's hard not to get excited. He would've easily been a Top 2 pick last draft, maybe #1 overall. Scoring 18 PPG in the G-League at such a young age is just really, really hard to ignore.

I'd like to see his shooting get a little less streaky, I'd like the decision making to improve, and I'd like the defense to be consistent... but these are definitely all things one can chalk up to youth and a huge leap in opposition talent. I think worst case scenario, he ends up the type of guy who's a 15+ PPG scorer but not much else. Best case scenario, there's obvious All-Star talent here.

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Like, if you think Kuminga can shoot the ball, then he's an All-Star caliber talent. Terrific wing size, great strength and body control for his age. Scored most efficiently in the G-League on cuts and physical force, which is pretty impressive considering he's playing against players 5-10 years older than him. There's also his defensive profile-- on ball, he could potentially guard 1 through 4, maybe even small ball 5s.

That said, I don't love his skills at the moment. He's not a shooter right now, especially off the bounce, and he doesn't have the touch you'd think a prospect of his hype would have. Again, it's the G-League, so it's a huge step up in competition, but he shot under 40% from the field, under 25% from 3, and under 65% from the FT line. It's not like his form is completely broken, but he's just not a shooter right now. He's also not a passer at all, so... that combination of problems is a problem on offense. Incredible raw talent, but right now he's just a really good driver who can't shoot or pass.

Also, off ball on defense, he loses focus. He's pretty awesome on ball, but from the admittedly small sample size I have of watching him play, he struggles to stay engaged sometimes when the ball's not in his hand or when the ball's not in front of him on defense. So he allowed a bunch of back cut layups and things of that nature defensively, which... isn't great for a guy whose calling card really should be his defense at this point.

I still think you take him Top 6 or 7, because there just aren't a lot of players with his type of obvious star potential in this draft. And again, if you think he can shoot 3s at a 36% clip and FTs at a 75+% clip one day, then he's almost certainly an All-Star, because his driving ability is potent, and he'll have serious mismatches if teams can't just sag off him. But if you can't shoot, can't pass, and can't play team defense entering the league, then you're liable to see some real growing pains. Like, Scottie Barnes can't shoot, but I know he can pass, he can play team D, and he can play with consistent energy on or off ball. But you know, it was a COVID bubble and a jump to the G-League, maybe you have to take some of the struggles with a grain of salt. I don't know.

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He genuinely played PG at FSU at 6'9 and 225 lbs. Try to throw a guy his size on him? Barnes has the speed, handles, and quick lateral mobility to get around you. Try to throw a guard on him? Barnes will just flat out bully him. He's definitely a matchup nightmare. And his passing is exceptional, not just for his size but for this draft class in general. He's one of those guys with elite feel for the game, where you sense he's always in control.

He's also easily one of the highest IQ defenders in the draft. Not just a terrific on-ball defender, but great off-ball, high motor at all times, and absolutely disruptive with his long arms and timing. He's also probably the only player in the draft who can genuinely guard 1 through 5. There just aren't many NBA players with his combination of length, strength, speed, motor, and IQ on both ends.

The problem is, of course, that he can't shoot. I know ThaTruth called him "broke Ben Simmons" in the other post, and while I think that might be a reasonable jab at what his floor could be, Barnes always plays with high motor, something that can't be said about Simmons (certainly not Simmons coming out of college, anyway). And much like Simmons, if you think Barnes can develop even an NBA average jump shot and free throw stroke, then he's probably an All-Star, the sort of player that be can your franchise guy.

Even if he can't ever shoot, I still think he can be a Draymond Green type, where he's limited away from the rim, but he's just so high IQ and high energy and versatile that he helps you find ways to secure the big wins, a great culture guy and a great tone setter. There's no chance he slides to Golden State at 7, but man, I'd love to see it happen. If I'm a team looking to try to win sooner rather than later, I'd easily take Barnes over Kuminga.

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in the league, unless Barnes ends up on that team with those players I can't see him having similar success

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

he was immediately the guy I wanted to pick because he made me think of Bam and Donkeylips, but unlike the latter, he had some SPEEEEEEEEEEEED.

watch OKC get him though

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

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------------------
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His range is iffy, but time in the gym will fix that.

Can finish at the rim with both hands, has the potential to be an above average defender.

Ball handling is better than advertised...but because of his frame, he can be pressured. The extra year to get in the weight room is really what I thought he should do, but he wasn't going to gain anything else learning from Hurley.

He is somewhere between Rip and Lamb....better than Jeremy but not as tough as Rip. If he lands on the right team he'll be fine in a couple of years...if not...he'll bounce around like Lamb.

------------------
One Hundred.

<---
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He's got to knock down 3s at a higher clip at the next level to keep teams honest. He's so brilliant at getting to and finishing at the rim, and he's got a knack for knocking down some big off-the-dribble shots in the midrange too... but teams will just go under screens and sag off him for the first few seasons at the next level until he proves he can make 3s consistently.

Other concerns: he's not good at creating for others right now, so he can't really serve as a secondary ball handler, which more and more teams want from their 2 guard. He averages 3.1 assists per 100 possessions for his career at UConn, which... yes, they didn't have a ton of guys around him, but that sucks. (Compare that to Anthony Edwards, who also isn't a very good/willing passer, and who had *way less* talent around him at Georgia... who put up 3.4 assists per 100 possessions.) I also don't think Bouknight was as good an off-ball defender as he was on-ball, but that can be fixed with experience and the right system.

But yeah, if he wants to be more than a bench scorer, he's gotta have two of the three of (a) good 3 point shooting, (b) good passing, (c) good overall defense. I'm not convinced the passing gets there, so the swing skill really will be that perimeter shot. If he can shoot at, say, a 36%+ clip consistently, I think he could be an NBA starter. Otherwise, yeah, Jeremy Lamb journeyman status-- not a knock, that's still a decade long NBA career, but considering he'll probably be drafted Top 10, I'm sure people want more from him.

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that Mo Wagner could be a solid starter on a competitive team

some of those same folks are in this post but I bet they won't comment on this lol

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

He's got a more clearly defined role in today's NBA, because unlike Mo, he's got great lateral quickness and is switchable on D. Defense was his calling card at Michigan-- he was great on-ball, he was elite off-ball. His instincts are among the better defensive instincts for a wing in this draft. He's also a really good passer for a 6'9 wing, doesn't turn it over much,

The 3 point shot is the big swing skill here, and I think it projects well despite shooting 34% last year from 3-- he's a great FT shooter, and his shot ran hot-and-cold rather than hovering consistently around that 34% mark. If he ends up in a system that can help him develop better consistency on that 3 point shot, I think he's the sort of role player that could start for a lot of teams.

So if you think he can't shoot, he's an 8th/9th man journeyman type. If you think he can shoot, he's starter/sixth man type in a clearly defined and coveted role in today's NBA. I'd bank on the latter, personally. But either way, he's really different than Mo, lol.

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One Hundred.

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Keon is maybe the best athlete in the draft, straight up-- elite leaping ability (smashed the combine record for vertical leap), elite burst, great length, great speed. But, much like Jaylen Brown coming out of college, his jumpshot is non-existent at present, and his handles aren't up to snuff for NBA standards. While he's one of the better on-ball defenders in the draft, he still has some discipline issues off-ball, and same goes for the offense when the ball's not in his hands.

I said this about Jaylen in the 2016 Justivity post about some of my concerns: "It won't matter if he can make a 3-pointer at a 35%+ clip and get even harder to stop going to the rack. If he fixes those, I'd totally believe that he could be a starter for a long time, and maybe even have All-Star potential... but that's a ways away from where he is now." I feel the same about Keon. Now, it worked out beautifully for Jaylen (shooting 38% from 3 for his career!), but it could've easily not gone that way.

If you told me Keon develops a 38% 3-point shot in the NBA, I'd tell you his All-Star potential going forward is real. If it's 35%? Maybe more like Miles Bridges. 33% or lower? I struggle to see a world in which he starts. All depends on if you think he can shoot. I'll probably have him lower on my big board than most. (But worth pointing out I had Jaylen Brown lower than most too!)

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and he gets to his spots to set folks up.

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One Hundred.

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<---
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While he may be a bit small for the point position, I think Davion Mitchell is a smart, high-motor, quick athlete who likes to make his name on the defensive end. In an increasingly point guard driven league, I think having a guy who's a skilled table setter, a strong defender, and a terrific finisher with blow-by speed... is of notable value.

I *do* have some questions about the jump shooting, though. He's a career 65% FT shooter (64% this year, only 53% in Tier A and B games), and he shot 30% from 3 in his two seasons before this one. Mitchell got a lot of very open looks playing in an offense with Butler and Teague, and I kind of wonder just how fluky his 45% 3 point average this year is. There's no question it's fluky... but is it "he's improved but is more like a 38% 3 point shooter right now" fluky, or is it "he's more like a 33-35% 3 point shooter right now" fluky?

Look, either way, he's likely a good enough shooter to keep defenses at least marginally honest-- and if that's not true at first, he's a really hard worker and high character kid, and I don't doubt he can be at least an NBA average 3 point threat. Combine that with the defense and the passing, and I think he'd be a really nice fit off the bench on a team looking to win now, with some eventual starter upside. Maybe if he can make the 40+% 3PT shot a long term reality, he can become a real star type of guy... but I suspect that's a bigger ask than last year's numbers signify.

That said, as I say every year, PG is the hardest position for me to predict, especially guys who don't have strong NBA size. Donovan Mitchell couldn't shoot in college and he became a star, because he found the right system. Davion's such a dog, who knows, maybe he could find some of Donovan's magic. I'd probably take him in that 11-15 range.

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He's 6'6 with a 6'11 wingspan. He shot 36% from 3 (38% in conference play) and 81% from the FT line (85% in conference play), so the stroke is good. He was also their primary perimeter threat, so a lot of his shots were tough by necessity-- I think there's absolutely 40% shooting upside here once he's surrounded by stars.

He's also a really good defender on ball, using his size to his advantage on the perimeter and moving his feet well. He doesn't have elite speed or athleticism, but I think he'd still function well in a switchable scheme.

I don't think there's serious star potential here, but the pitch is obvious. He may not have the highest ceiling, but he does have a really high floor. His worst case scenario is, like, bench 3-and-D guy. Which still has clear value. His best case scenario is the 3-and-D guy who serves to help spread the floor for a title contender's 2 or 3 stars. He'd thrive in that role. I've got to think teams like New Orleans and Charlotte should give him a very real look at 10 and 11... and if he slips anywhere beyond that, I suspect someone's getting a steal.

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major upside for whoever gets him

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"I *always* quote myself. I'm the only reliable source on *most* subjects" - OKP's First Lady of Knowledge, Janey

If Pop can somehow steal him for the Spurs, he becomes an all-star.

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One Hundred.

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He just started playing basketball at age 15, and he's 19 today, so he still has to figure out, y'know, how to play basketball. But hooooooly shit, the upside is just so unreal.

- He'd be one of the most athletic 6'11 guys in the NBA right away.
- Phenomenal leaper, great lateral quickness, great speed for his size. Moves fluidly too.
- Looks like he can shoot-- still a work in progress, but passes the eye test. Smooth release for a 6'11 guy, and he's even shown some propensity to shoot off the dribble and in midrange.
- Terrific on-ball defender. Off-ball definitely a work in progress, but again, he started organized basketball four years ago-- he's got the length and quickness to be insanely disruptive at the rim and on closeouts on the perimeter.
- More than anything, he has that holy shit factor, where he busts out plays someone like him just... shouldn't be able to do. Like making a smooth Euro step around defenders to a reverse layup, or crossing up a wing defender before popping a 3, or just navigating traffic on a dribble drive to a slam. People his size, with 4 years of experience, shouldn't be able to do the things he does.

So I don't doubt he won't be able to help a team win for the next 2-3 years. But put him on a team that's going to take their time with him-- the Thunder at 16 would be *perfect* if he falls that far-- and he absolutely has massive potential. Guys with his combination of size, athleticism, and raw skill at both ends just don't come around too often. Worst case, he's, like, Robert Williams-esque. Best case, he's Robert Williams with better speed, handles, switchability, and perimeter game... and you've gotta think that's an All-Star if that comes to pass. This is the sort of "could be Giannis-esque" upside swing that you just have to take if you're a team picking in the teens who won't be in serious playoff contention for the next few years-- especially if you're a small market team.

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That’s all I can see.

<---
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Dude was a few free throws away from a 50-40-90 season last year... and until a complacent stretch during some blowouts in the WCC, he seriously looked like he could've had a 50-50-90 season. Which, on the volume of 3s he takes, is absolutely preposterous. And before people say "what about the competition?"... 13 of Gonzaga's 32 games were Tier A competition, and in those games, he actually shot *better* than he did on the season-- over 44% from 3 on over 7 attempts per game. For his entire career, he shot over 42% from 3 on high volume against Tier A opponents. Dude can just flat out stroke it. There's no better catch-and-shoot player in the draft-- and he's one of the best catch-and-shoot guys in the last few drafts.

He's not going to be a great defender next level-- he's got good size and moves his feet well, but he's not a plus athlete-- but he's a better defender than, say, Joe Harris. And we've seen the value of Joe Harris in the pros-- he's led the NBA in 3P% two of the last three years. And there's really no question that Corey Kispert as a college player was a much better shooter than Joe Harris as a college player.

So he's the perfect pick for a team that needs shooting, especially a team looking to win now. The last two games of the season didn't go Kispert's way, so I think his stock has dipped a little, but I would've considered him a serious threat to go Top 10 during the season. He's absolutely in my Top 15 at lowest, and as long as you draft him to play his role, not to be a star, then he will absolutely shine.

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I'm curious your thoughts on him.

https://digife.com

It's easy to just toss out this season for Ziaire.

- no preseason
- hurt his knee in the fall
- Stanford was insanely stringent on COVID, so way fewer facilities than most schools
- had to sit out a chunk due to COVID issues
- had *two* deaths in the family that he missed time for

And he was never really the same after his extended absence... so I'm inclined to just say "fuck it, don't judge any of this game tape."

But here's what I think from the few early games I saw and the few HS games I saw him play:

- great wing size. combined with athleticism, he should be a disruptive defender on the wing.
- good feel for the game. not a point forward or anything, but could maybe even do some secondary playmaking.
- not a very good shooter last year... but I don't *hate* the shot. I think questioning it would be reasonable... but I also think of the big wings in the first round of the draft, guys like Kuminga, Barnes, Franz Wagner, Jalen Johnson... Williams is the best shooter off the bounce by a fairly good margin and is at worst the second best shooter in catch-and-shoot situations after Wagner. Granted, I'd take all those guys ahead of Zaire (except for Jalen Johnson), but I wouldn't be surprised if Ziaire passes some of them in productivity if the shot pops off.
- I think the concerns about his strength, frame, and durability are all real. He definitely needs to build strength, but he also may have a cap to how strong he can get. He definitely wasn't very effective in college at the rim or when dealing with physicality. And certainly that would affect his defensive upside (as we've seen with Brandon Ingram, who was a positive defender in college but hasn't really ever been so as a pro).

So yeah, I think he could go anywhere between, like, 10 and 30. I think if he shoots and bulks up, he could be one of the ten best pros in the draft. I think there's also a real chance you end up with a 3-and-D guy who's an average shooter and an average defender, which means he's a bench guy at best. Ultimately, I'm tossing out last year and he's got a good feel and IQ, so I'd be inclined to lean above his media outcome instead of below. But yeah, he's a mystery box. Probably best suited to go to a team picking mid to late teens that has zero interest in winning immediately but big interest in potential future star power (the Thunder would be a great spot for him).

(I realize that's a lot of words for "I don't know." lol. But yeah, he's one of the more intriguing options in this draft due to all the mystery around what to do with last season's game tape.)

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He's old (24), not a great passer, and not an elite athlete... but he's got all the tools to be an immediate 3-and-D guy. One of the best 3-point shooters in the class. One of the better mid-range shooters as well. Can shoot off the catch, can pull up off the bounce. Decent dribble-drive guy too, so he's not one-dimensional there. He's also a really good defender, moves well away from the ball, good quickness on the perimeter. Hard worker, high character guy.

Any team looking to make the playoffs next year should take him. And I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck into the lottery for a team who really needs minutes next season from their pick. In a draft where a *lot* of guys who'll go first round are high-upside-but-not-ready guys? Duarte stands out as being ready.

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One Hundred.