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Forum nameOkay Sports
Topic subjectHe's a mystery box with serious upside. Gonna be a total gamble.
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2741470&mesg_id=2742119
2742119, He's a mystery box with serious upside. Gonna be a total gamble.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jul-01-21 03:14 PM
It's easy to just toss out this season for Ziaire.

- no preseason
- hurt his knee in the fall
- Stanford was insanely stringent on COVID, so way fewer facilities than most schools
- had to sit out a chunk due to COVID issues
- had *two* deaths in the family that he missed time for

And he was never really the same after his extended absence... so I'm inclined to just say "fuck it, don't judge any of this game tape."

But here's what I think from the few early games I saw and the few HS games I saw him play:

- great wing size. combined with athleticism, he should be a disruptive defender on the wing.
- good feel for the game. not a point forward or anything, but could maybe even do some secondary playmaking.
- not a very good shooter last year... but I don't *hate* the shot. I think questioning it would be reasonable... but I also think of the big wings in the first round of the draft, guys like Kuminga, Barnes, Franz Wagner, Jalen Johnson... Williams is the best shooter off the bounce by a fairly good margin and is at worst the second best shooter in catch-and-shoot situations after Wagner. Granted, I'd take all those guys ahead of Zaire (except for Jalen Johnson), but I wouldn't be surprised if Ziaire passes some of them in productivity if the shot pops off.
- I think the concerns about his strength, frame, and durability are all real. He definitely needs to build strength, but he also may have a cap to how strong he can get. He definitely wasn't very effective in college at the rim or when dealing with physicality. And certainly that would affect his defensive upside (as we've seen with Brandon Ingram, who was a positive defender in college but hasn't really ever been so as a pro).

So yeah, I think he could go anywhere between, like, 10 and 30. I think if he shoots and bulks up, he could be one of the ten best pros in the draft. I think there's also a real chance you end up with a 3-and-D guy who's an average shooter and an average defender, which means he's a bench guy at best. Ultimately, I'm tossing out last year and he's got a good feel and IQ, so I'd be inclined to lean above his media outcome instead of below. But yeah, he's a mystery box. Probably best suited to go to a team picking mid to late teens that has zero interest in winning immediately but big interest in potential future star power (the Thunder would be a great spot for him).

(I realize that's a lot of words for "I don't know." lol. But yeah, he's one of the more intriguing options in this draft due to all the mystery around what to do with last season's game tape.)