Like, the potential is there. For his height, he's a very good passer. Maybe even an elite passer for his size. Playmaking potential is obvious. Not an elite athlete, but he runs the floor well-- definitely a positive impact player in transition, and he definitely looks for the big moments.

That said, I don't think it's a coincidence that Duke *immediately* got better the second Jalen Johnson left the team.

- Can't shoot. Did a good job taking only the widest open 3s on very limited attempts, but his midrange was bad, and his FT shooting was bad (63%).
- *Very* high and loose handle at present. Which, of course, means he was very turnover prone, especially in the half court.
- His desire for the splashy play often resulted in him forcing passes or action, once again leading to turnovers, especially in the half court.
- As you may have gathered from the above, he's currently a negative value half court player.
- His overall defensive awareness is atrocious. He's a good weak side shot blocker and a decent presence in the passing lanes due to his size, but he completely lacks the lateral speed to defend players off the dribble or in pick and roll. Johnson's positional speed advantage is basically only in straight line running. Side to side, he looks like he's moving through mud. He also rarely ever rotated correctly, and he was content to jump out of position to try to force turnovers, often leaving his man wide open to drive or shoot.

Some of these things are age-related, sure... but right now, he's essentially a slower, less athletic Ben Simmons who doesn't play defense. So, like, who is that as a player? How does he serve winning?

I didn't bring up the character stuff, that he's now left multiple teams midseason, and some of the clear chemistry problem stuff he's had over the last two years and change, because if you're a crazy asshole but you can ball? You'll play. Like, Kevin Porter is gonna stick in the NBA one way or another, because dude has a gift for scoring at the highest level. But right now? I don't know what Jalen Johnson does.

Now, I think he'll be taken in the first round, because someone will see him and say, "If we tighten his handle, and if we get him to commit to defense, and if we can teach him to shoot a basketball, there's mismatch star potential there," because that's true. You do all of those things, and he could be... I don't know, a taller Coke Zero version of Paul Pierce? But like, if Paul Pierce shot 30% from 3, 65% from FT, was a net negative defender, and had a 20+% turnover rate? Does that player even get a second contract in Boston?

I fully acknowledge there's a world in which Jalen Johnson becomes the star that everyone thought he'd be last season. But he's just a long way from getting there, at least according to what he showed last season. I'd wait until the twenties at earliest to draft him and I'd stash him in the G-League or something-- or, if I'm OKC or some team in a rebuild, I let him struggle for a couple of seasons on an NBA court and get him used to the speed of the game. But who knows-- he could tumble on draft night, or a team could fall in love with his potential and take him as high as mid-lottery. I hope he works out, because I want any Duke player to succeed... but I think the concerns about how he fits in the league with his current lack of half court offense and all-around defense skills are very real.