Is Trump about to get his Grover Cleveland on?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/02/trump-biden-poll-new-york-times-siena-00144555

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but its America and we are getting dumber every year. I definitely think polls can find shitty folk to skew polls but I think the media prefers Trump presidency because he makes them more money.

Definitely feel like it will be another “OMG, how could the polls get this wrong”

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Which I think creates a lot of noise in polling because folks want to air their unhappiness with their choices.

in 8 months we will be in the, it's Biden versus Trump phase, who do you pick?

Also, I don't think national polling matters so much. I want to see just the swing states.



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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

https://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13499433&mesg_id=13499433&listing_type=search#13499499

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We know that now.

if he is alive, he will be the next President. his team has put multiple things into place nationally, since 2020, for that to happen, especially in the "swing states".

continued intense gerrymandering, takeovers of state election boards, intimidation of district attorneys and state legislators...on and on.

he won't 'win' tho.

d

"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

You could what was coming in 2020….he was setting up all his lies the entire way, and was about to cheat his ass off, you could see Jan. 6th coming…..

and literally nothing happened to him. He’s still fucking here, pulling all kinds of shit, and nobody cares.

His ass should’ve been dead or in jail on Jan. 7th, 2021. He’s a criminal terrorist traitor.

everybody here should key into exactly what is happening in their state....especially their county.

what are the protections for the election? poll volunteers? state election officials? county election officials?

y'all need to get hyper local cuz the republicans are 10 steps ahead.

d

"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

If Biden can come across as mentally competent in the debates, he will win. If he shits the bed it's a wrap (and I'm strongly considering leaving the country if that happens fr).

--

Woe unto him who in this world courts not dishonor.

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Interesting theory.

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Woe unto him who in this world courts not dishonor.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

>If Biden can come across as mentally competent in the
>debates

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http://www.last.fm/user/dagu85

maybe they should debate before the conventions while there's still a chance for a plan b

and only speaking anecdotally, I don't know any trump voters who have changed their mind about him but I know quite a few people who have either trended more to the right after 2020, or are still hard left but think biden is just as evil , or (mostly) people who have checked out completely. And I'm in a state where biden will still win handily. Maybe outside of my little world things are trending differently but I imagine in swing states, things aren't much better for Joe.

I'd feel better if he wasn't so.. old, or people werent acting like that's some made up overblown thing. maybe trump being trump will get us thru this again but, man idk

I think it comes down to attrition and I just don't think there are folks who voted Biden who will now vote Trump. But I do think there are a fair amount of Biden and Trump voters who will stay home in Nov.


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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

i know a couple bernibros who reluctantly voted for hilary, and maybe biden, who are pretty much trumpers. its not exactly shocking. i know another guy who got radicalized after the pandemic so he's likely an rfk guy who i assume would vote trump before biden. i know another dude who voted hilary/joe, who posts free palestine videos every day. i can't see him voting for either.

sure most people are relatively the same, and a lot of people keep things close to the vest, but i don't think ive ever seen this much mistrust in institutions, or just general 'fuck all these people'. and i also think there's an idea out there that things weren't *that* bad under trump, pre-pandemic, or compare 2019 to today. not saying its not a fair comparison. its just people's mindset.

but it's mostly biden's age that concerns me that has little to do with the actual number.

>i know another dude who voted hilary/joe,
>who posts free palestine videos every day. i can't see him
>voting for either.

But I'll undoubtedly be at the polls voting Biden in November.

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"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

its mostly videos of himself talking about it.

and i haven't seen him in years. i would think at this point he falls into a single issue voter category but we're in california so he doesn't need to vote for biden, but he also has a pretty decent amount of followers on tiktok. not saying he's got this huge influence or i know for sure how he'd vote, but it's hard for me to see him pushing for joe at this point. even if the greater evil is trump

We're at the point where it's almost impossible to predict what will happen no matter what data sources we use

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We should have learned this during the mid term elections when every single media outlet without fail predicated this huge red wave and nothing of the sort happens.

Only a certain type of person actually answers poll questions and it's not reflective of the average voter.

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I hope you live a life you’re proud of. If you find that you’re not, I hope you have the strength to start all over again.

— F. Scott Fitzgerald

I have been voting for 30 years and I have NEER been polled to see who I would vote for as it pertains to President.

I'm generally shocked when I see specific polls pertaining to my age bracket and demographic because I don't know anyone else who has been part of a poll.

IG: @illharmonic.orchestra
Youtube: www.youtube.com/theephantom

But I don't answer my house phone nor answer calls from unknown numbers on my cell, I assume many are the same, maybe even yourself.

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"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

think they even slid a $5 bill on there.

I just gave the money to my kids and threw the poll in the trash.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

Which is what the polls indicate, IMO. I don't think four and five-point leads are enough to accurately predict a winner, especially this early in the year.


_______________________________
gamblers and masturbators.

www.twitter.com/urkelmoedee
www.instagram.com/urkelmoedee
www.twitch.tv/urkelmoedee
www.mixcloud.com/returntozero
www.albumism.com/search?q=Marcus%20Willis

Is that a thing?

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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

(Or at least that's my memory of various 538 analyses back when 538 was good.)

A year or more in advance of voting, they're useless.

That said, I think a case can be made that this cycle is different, because the poll respondents aren't really taking the poll condition at face value. A lot of Democrats still don't believe Trump will be the GOP nominee, and a lot of Republicans still don't believe Biden will be the Dem nominee.


I do think Democrats should be concerned (though I always think Democrats should be concerned). Biden is still the only plausible option to win, though. Kamala consistently polls much weaker than Biden. And anybody else is an unknown quantity, with skeletons still out there to be found, and nominating them would require party bosses to explicitly jump *over* the only woman of color ever on a winning presidential ticket, which is a recipe for disaster. I think Gretchen Whitmer is the most promising candidate we have right now, but she won't be able to run successfully until SHE's the VP, or until (God forbid) a Republican term gives us a chance to reset.

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Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

There are good arguments that polls will eventually become inaccurate as self-selection clouds the sampling and the pollsters' attempts to fix it by weighting eventually become a matter of punditry driving statistics, rather than the other way around. But people have been looking for that phenomenon for years and still haven't convincingly found it.

What's been bad in the last few years is people's interpretation of the polls.

In 2016 the FiveThirtyEight model gave Trump over 30% odds on election day (there was admittedly a quick shift after Comey's genius announcement, and it showed up better in the FiveThirtyEight model than in Upshot and other models that weren't set up to estimate the quality of recent polls). When someone has 30% odds to win, we shouldn't expect them to win, but we also shouldn't be surprised if they win. That result was entirely within the error bars.

In 2018 the polls clearly predicted a blue wave and we got a blue wave, basically as big as the FiveThirtyEight models predicted.

In 2020 they predicted Biden would win a moderately close race, and he won a moderately close race. The state-by-state estimates were broadly consistent (though not as consistent as in the Obama elections, simply because those elections were not as competitive).

In 2022 the polls showed a lot of general dissatisfaction, but they also showed an enormous shift in voter activity triggered by the Dobbs decision. Pundits chose to see the former but ignore the latter, and they predicted a red wave that didn't materialize. That was a failure of punditry, not of polling.

People find some weird satisfaction in thinking eggheads don't really know anything. But I honestly can't think of an election result in my lifetime that wasn't consistent with polls about a month out.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

They're more accurate one month out than two months out. They're more accurate two months out than four months out, and they're more accurate four months out than eight months out.

But they can be, and historically have been, much more predictive than some idiot's gut feeling, even mine months in advance.

There's no wisdom in ignorance.

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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

become a diss?!?! LOL.

Why don't you shut the fuck you seemingly happily married, beautiful family ass nigga.

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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

stay Black Buddy G!!!

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Meanwhile I am the Black Employeee Network's sponsor and everyone knows I got the open door for black and brown employees who constantly stay in my office.

If you going to take shots, you going to need another angle.


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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

but want him to come to you when he was the new guy.

I’m fucking with you but you do know you came off like bad on that post.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

https://twitter.com/findareaction/status/1571994574721093637

___________________

Mar-A-Lago delenda est

Y'all buy those labels, I was born supreme

individual polls should def be scrutinized, but the overall polling is probably more accurate than vibes from within our own city or our own personal bubbles.

Polls are also a snapshot of sentiment as of today. So they will fluctuate a lot between now and November.

In a generation of swine, the one-eyed pig is king.
-Hunter S. Thompson

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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

I mean, OP asked if we should be concerned with polls now

and 99% of people said no, not until a month out.

yet they still trying to sell us all polls matter

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

it's just not gonna happen.

also, getting down to the brass tacks, i just don't see for Trump. as "BLAH" as Biden is, we saw what Trump did to the country once and no one wants to see it again unless you're an ardent supporter of his.

on top of that, the country is doing well financially and that's all that really matters to a lot of people. if Trump is elected, that WILL take a hit.

i do expect some folks to abstain from the Biden/Trump choice. i don't expect it to be enough that Biden loses. i think once push comes to shove, people will keep the status quo (Biden).

now, a caveat: i never thought Trump would win the first time, and humans are crazy...so there ya go.

person in the post on the subject explained.


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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

most polls had Hilldawg in a landslide

of course as ling as there is an election there is a chance of an upset but just google “2016 polls” and all types of articles with excuses pop up.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

His boys in Russia are holdin' it down with the AI fake news.

....is...

The polls predicted a 2022 "Red Wave"

When the 2022 "Red Wave" didn't happen...


The repeated response from several analysts was: "young people voted" and/or "they didn't expect young people to vote."



Now tell me.....


EXACTLY HOW FLAWED A "SCIENCE" IS POLLING IF EVER SINCE THE 2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THE POLLSTERS KEEP "MISSING" CERTAIN GROUPS IN THESE "SCIENTIFIC" CALCULATIONS?


They were predicting Bush to win the popular vote over Al Gore which set extreme left on a third party run...and they did run to Nader, ESPECIALLY IN FLORIDA IN 2000.


THAT'S THE GAME - DISCOURAGE AND SEND THE FAR LEFT ON THEIR WAY


again, bye, no back and forth.

its far too many variables
too many ways to game the data for it to be accurate as claimed


its MATH
and guess who struggles with math because they run from it?

>its MATH
>and guess who struggles with math because they run from it?


Uneducated white voters!!!

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

I would note that the 48-44 isn’t Bidens problem
The enthusiasm gap is - and that shit is real real

Jesus Christ I can’t believe they’re putting these 2 fucktards in front of us again

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

<--- Big Baller World Order

Yes, I believe them - though "consistently" isn't the same as "universally." Of the four most recently listed (released in the last week), Biden is slightly ahead two, behind in one, and tied in another.

And so, no. I don't think that says anything very instructive right now. Polls read the present, not tell the future. Something weird like a new disease, war, banking mishap, furiously politicized pop culture phenomenon, etc. is gonna happen and the entire world is going to shed it's skin and change between now and November. Or change and then change back.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Biden is also unpopular, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and inflation aren't helping.

peace

J305
___________________

People of color are NOT a minority. Think Global.

Don't Let Hollywood fool you.

http://www.twitter.com/Jtronic
http://www.last.fm/user/Jtronic

The economy and stock market are crushing it

Unemployment has been at or below 4% for a while now and that's the first time in 40-50 years that it's been this low.

The post-recession gains in manufacturing employment under Biden have been the strongest in 72 years, and the second strongest since World War II.

Inflation is a corporation price gouging thing, but Biden has passed Inflation Reduction legislation
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/16/fact-sheet-one-year-in-president-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-is-driving-historic-climate-action-and-investing-in-america-to-create-good-paying-jobs-and-reduce-costs/

I'm not even a Biden fan, but the equal parts blind omission to his accomplishments and selective amnesia to what we ALL witnessed during Drumpf's run is crazy to me.

IG: @illharmonic.orchestra
Youtube: www.youtube.com/theephantom

The majority of Americans have no idea about the absolute shit show that Covid left behind for the Biden administration to walk into and clean up.

Realistically things should be even worse than they are now and not only is that not the case but by a lot of metrics were soaring.

If they lose this election to Trump AGAIN after the openly criminal and destructive tirade he has been on then they deserve it and we deserve it for being this fucking ridiculously petty.

I don't like Joe Biden but I HATE HATE HATE Donald Trump. I don't like Biden for the same reason I don't like most politicians. They are pseudo dignitaries who speak in ideology only at this point. But Trump wants to be an autocrat and to let a man like that back into the White House would be insane. But we're about to do it.

that Trump's attitude and actions in the early part of COVID led to the deaths of thousands (millions?) and threw the economy into meltdown, and that Biden (love him or hate him) has led the country out of that dark place.

in fact, the economy always tanks during a republican presidency, and then a democrat comes along and resuscitates it. the entire messaging shouldbe that Dems are the party of financial prosperity and the Repugs are the party of financial ruin.

how hard is it to say that?

they know the truth

they just don’t give a shit.

the man said he could shoot someone and not lose votes

he said “grab em by the pussy”

the sad truth is America is a shit show and these Trump supporters still think Obama is in charge and Kamala is up next.

Its Idiocracy

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

https://www.mediaite.com/entertainment/debate-and-switch-jimmy-kimmel-gets-trump-supporters-to-reveal-blatant-hypocrisy-in-wild-segment/


Jimmy Kimmel and his staff got supporters of former President Donald Trump to engage in blatant hypocrisy in what was truly a wild segment of the ABC late night show.

During his opening monologue Friday, Kimmel explained the premise of the bit — which was filmed in South Carolina ahead of Saturday’s primary.

“We asked people who identified themselves as supporters of Donald Trump for their take on some of Joe Biden’s more controversial actions and quotes,” Kimmel said. “But what we didn’t tell them at first. Is that what we said wasn’t from Joe Biden. It was actually from Donald Trump.”

A Kimmel staffer then asked a South Carolina voter, “What did you think when Joe Biden suggested that Covid could be cured by shining a bright light inside the body?”

“It is very sad that Joe Biden is clearly a dementia patient,” the voter replied.

Of course, it was Trump who infamously made that suggestion. When the voter was given that information, she immediately and drastically changed her tune about the validity of the comment.

“It depends what that technology is,” the voter said. “That’s a broad spectrum, because, you know, you have MRI machines and CT machines and, infrared and different things. So it just depends the context of that.”

Kimmel’s staffer then confronted another Trump fan about the following: There are accusations that Joe Biden cheated on his wife with a porn star after his son was born. And there’s actually a paper trail showing he paid the sex worker $130,000 to keep quiet about it.”

“And he he was making, I think, less than $100,000 a year at that time?” The voter said, adding “Now, how does he do that?”

When the voter was told that actually applied to Trump, he too pulled a 180.

“My father had affairs too, and I still respect him,” the voter said.

Watch above, via ABC.

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when confronted with Trumps “grab’em by the pussy” quote.

These people have no shame.

They stormed the fucking capital. If you still vote for someone after that, there is no clear message that will change their mind.

Its gonna be Handmaids Tale if Trump wins. America is sick.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Yep they gone.

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>Its gonna be Handmaids Tale if Trump wins. America is sick.

I hate to say that as someone raising a young daughter here. But it's true. I'll/we'll have to figure something out if he does.

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"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

or potential dem voters.

the trump kooks are too far kook'd to even be worth trying to redeem.

maybe it's something outta nothing and dem voters or those who would vote dem will come around on their own.

still, democratic messaging sucks ass and it shouldn't take a room of brain surgeons to figure it out yet is seems like it takes way more than that.

It almost exclusively is distributed by right wing media and privately-funded right wing interests. It’s not the message, it’s the megaphone.

Democrats also have a more expansive coalition. The party is not a monolithic hivemind, messaging has to acknowledge broader priorities and points of view. Conservatives tend to see things from a more binary perspective.

>still, democratic messaging sucks ass and it shouldn't take a
>room of brain surgeons to figure it out yet is seems like it
>takes way more than that.

>Democrats also have a more expansive coalition. The party is
>not a monolithic hivemind, messaging has to acknowledge
>broader priorities and points of view. Conservatives tend to
>see things from a more binary perspective.

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"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

Seriously, not trying to be cold but what in the entire fuck do you need as a Dem to motivate you to vote in 2024?

This is the type of shit that scares me about America.

Everyone needs someone to coddle the fuck out of them to vote for their own best interest?

FOH at any Dem acting like they need Biden to woo them.

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Who are mostly uninformed/stupid.

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"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

and, i think most Dem voters will vote Biden out of sheer disdain for Trump and what he could to this country if given another crack at it.

however, i do think there is a sizeable contigent of those voters where only the negative stuff gets through about Biden and none of the positive...and part of winning is actually making people feel good about the candidate - that's messaging.

and that's not even speaking to people who are on the fence. if they are already on the fence, then they probably think even less of Biden to even be considering Trump in any way, shape or form.