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Subject: "2013 Summer (Domestic) Box Office Predictions" Previous topic | Next topic
SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Fri May-03-13 07:21 PM

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"2013 Summer (Domestic) Box Office Predictions"


          

This is a crazy summer season with a ton of contenders and fewer sure things than usual. This is IMO the hardest year to predict and I have zero confidence in my money predictions this time around. (I did alright last year save for severely underestimating The Avengers.)

So which ten films do you think will break the bank this summer and bring home the most (domestic) bucks?

I think there are seven solid selections:

1. Iron Man 3 (400 million): #1 because of The Avengers and because it's the first major summer movie, a slot which has become IMO the best weekend of the season. I also am a believer in Shane Black and think this could be the best Iron Man movie yet.

2. Man of Steel (375 million): I was actually nervous about this one yesterday's trailer release. Still, I think the memories of the lackluster Superman Returns, opening against the Apatow Gang's This is The End, and having more competition in theaters when it opens will keep it from overtaking Iron Man.

3. Star Trek: Into Darkness (315 million): I could be way too low on this one but JJ Abrams penchant for lens flare and alternate dimensions bugs me so I'm admittedly biased against this one. Also, it faces the toughest second weekend out there with Fast and Furious 6 and Hangover III.

4. Monsters University (277 million): The Monsters just don't seem like they are that popular with the kids. Granted, Cars might be the most popular and those movies don't make much money but I'm not seeing Monsters U. rake in a ton of money, especially because it only has two weekends before Despicable Me 2 opens.

5. Despicable Me 2 (263 million): I wouldn't be stunned if this one beats Monsters University but it's got a tougher opening weekend and I'm still not willing to bet against Pixar.

6. The Hangover 3 (204 million): Toughest weekend of the year and coming off of a sequel that most people didn't like but Bradley Cooper is bigger than ever and it looks like they've at least tried to switch up the formula a tiny bit. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes south of 200 million but I'll bank on enough people coming back to finish the trilogy.

7. Fast and Furious 6 (170 million): The previous film benefitted from opening the summer season a couple years ago. This year is the polar opposite as it's going to have a ton of competition with Iron Man, Star Trek, and Great Gatsby in theaters already and Hangover 3 opening against it. Still, I love this stupid franchise, the trailer got people excited, and I think the following weekends are weak enough* that it could have some legs. (*Personally, I think The Purge and Now You See Me both look good but they don't scream summer blockbuster.)

After those seven, it's anybody's ballgame. There are a lot of films will pedigree (Lone Ranger, Great Gatsby, Grown Ups 2) and promise (Pacific Rim, Elysium) but I'm going to opt for these three.

8. The Heat (136 million): Melissa McCarthy is hot right now, Sandra Bullock is a bonafide star, and it has a Bridesmaids connection. I've been surprised by how many people enjoyed Identity Thief and all this has to do is match that film's box office, albeit in a far more crowded season.

9. Wolverine (127 million): Honestly, the main reason I'm giving this film, which I'm getting more and more lukewarm about with each passing day, the nod is because it has the least amount of competition on its opening weekend.

10. World War Z (114 million): I'm kind of rooting against this film because it looks stupid but takes itself seriously and it has a rough opening weekend and the more I type the more I want to pick something else for this slot but I'm going to bet on zombies and Brad Pitt to bring in enough people.

So what say you?

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
I cant wait to up this at the end of the summer.. lol
Apr 17th 2013
1
I can't wait to see your predictions
Apr 17th 2013
2
After Earth moves release date; Flop of the Summer?
Apr 23rd 2013
3
nope...these post-millenials bout to stun y'all.
Apr 23rd 2013
4
Cosign. At absolute worst 225 domestic.
Apr 23rd 2013
5
Will Smith hasn't broken 700 million since ID4
Apr 23rd 2013
6
I don't think it'll do 700 mil.
Apr 23rd 2013
7
it'll have a huge opening weekend and the plummet
Apr 24th 2013
9
L for me
Jun 07th 2013
80
No way this flops.
Apr 25th 2013
16
      130 million is the PTP-defined "Flop" line for this
Apr 25th 2013
17
RE: i predict i will be at home continuing to catch up
Apr 23rd 2013
8
I wouldn't be stunned if Despiable Me outdrew everything except
Apr 24th 2013
10
RE: I wouldn't be stunned if Despiable Me outdrew everything except
Apr 26th 2013
21
      Not sure much is expected from 2 Guns
Apr 26th 2013
22
           RE: Not sure much is expected from 2 Guns
Apr 26th 2013
23
Word of mouth on Man of Steel is gonna give it legs.
Apr 24th 2013
11
If it's like Batman Begins, I'm in trouble
Apr 24th 2013
12
what's the surprise comedy of the summer?
Apr 24th 2013
13
Does "The Heat" count?
Apr 24th 2013
14
The Heat will be the biggest non-Hangover comedy imo.
Apr 24th 2013
15
RE: 2013 Summer (Domestic) Box Office Predictions
Apr 26th 2013
18
One Weekend Until Kickoff... Here are the release dates
Apr 26th 2013
19
RE: 2Guns
Apr 26th 2013
20
If Lone Ranger has good word of mouth, it'll do fine
Apr 26th 2013
24
Fine probably still means flop. It cost 250 million
Apr 26th 2013
25
ADDENDUM: White House Down trailer won me over
May 02nd 2013
26
Note: Always go with your first answer.
Jun 29th 2013
87
I'll give this a whirl.
May 02nd 2013
27
let me guess Man of Steel wins the year
May 03rd 2013
28
I'd be stunned if Iron Man 3 makes less than 150 mil this weekend.
May 03rd 2013
29
I mean, they put zero effort into Iron Man 2
May 03rd 2013
30
      Iron Man 3 is breaking records overseas
May 03rd 2013
31
           Exactly. Iron Man 3 is now an Avengers sequel, not an Iron Man sequel.
May 03rd 2013
32
           I don't think Returns factors in at all, but you're right about
May 03rd 2013
33
Man of Steel will have MAJOR legs
May 03rd 2013
34
Wall Street weighs in
May 03rd 2013
35
LOL at Hangover 3 higher than Man of Steel
May 03rd 2013
36
      Yep. I thought he was too high on Wolverine/Turbo too
May 03rd 2013
37
           RE: Yep. I thought he was too high on Wolverine/Turbo too
May 03rd 2013
38
RE: 2013 Summer box office flops
May 03rd 2013
41
RE: 2013 Summer box office flops
May 05th 2013
43
      RE: 2013 Summer box office flops
May 05th 2013
44
      Fuck that. Go fangs out in that shit.
May 05th 2013
45
      I would place money on After Earth passing double digits.
May 05th 2013
46
           Domesticly no.
May 07th 2013
50
           I'd bet on it doing triple digit mil domestically, yeah.
May 12th 2013
58
                RE: I'd bet on it doing triple digit mil domestically, yeah.
May 28th 2013
65
                     When all is said and done, yeah.
May 28th 2013
66
                          RE: If they were making Bad Boys 3 i would bet on that,lol
May 29th 2013
71
                          So do you STILL think it's gonna do triple digits in the US of A?
May 31st 2013
72
                               If it doesn't pass 25, then no, I don't.
May 31st 2013
73
                                    I told you Now You See Me would be a sleeper hit....
Jun 02nd 2013
76
                                         RE: Now you see me with more dollars than Will Smith,lol
Jun 02nd 2013
77
           I hope you dont bet much.
Jun 23rd 2013
82
RE: 2013 Summer (Domestic) Box Office Predictions
May 04th 2013
42
Tony's already halfway there
May 05th 2013
47
Are there any real sleeper Comedies out there?
May 07th 2013
48
It'll be hard in a packed summer
May 07th 2013
49
And the GI Joe Award for Summer Relocation goes to...
May 09th 2013
51
Great Gatsby opening at $50 million +
May 12th 2013
52
I expect a huge second week drop
May 12th 2013
53
      RE:Reply to 52 and 53
May 12th 2013
54
           Yeah, you're flat out lying, lol.
May 12th 2013
57
                To be fair, she did peg it at 115 million
May 12th 2013
59
                Every summer drama that opened to 30 mil hit 120 mil total box office.
May 12th 2013
60
                     lol, we getting mad about this shit now?
May 12th 2013
62
                          I'm mostly just bored.
May 12th 2013
63
                RE: all of leo's films make money even his misfires
May 12th 2013
61
Entertainment Weekly weighs in
May 12th 2013
55
RE:i am adding another one to the flop list
May 12th 2013
56
Damn. Hangover III might not make Top 10
May 28th 2013
64
I KNEW I shoulda put The Heat above it, lol.
May 28th 2013
67
      I'm starting to wonder about This is the End.
May 28th 2013
68
           I can't get over how average The Heat's trailer is
May 28th 2013
69
                Yeah, I'll happily be wrong about The Heat
May 28th 2013
70
                     It's counter-programming...
May 31st 2013
74
                          Kind of the same demo though
May 31st 2013
75
RE: revised list (OK i guess i am cheating a little) but
Jun 03rd 2013
78
Google: Search & YouTube key predictors of box office performance
Jun 07th 2013
79
65% drop for Man of Steel
Jun 23rd 2013
81
RE:lol, You taking a jab at me,lol okay maybe i ...
Jun 24th 2013
83
White House Down will be huge
Jun 25th 2013
84
      "Seeming different" definitely isn't a strength
Jun 25th 2013
85
      White House down is looking like a "flop" so far
Jun 29th 2013
86
           RE: see post # 56
Jun 29th 2013
90
           I'll take my L
Jun 30th 2013
97
HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!! R.I.P.D. projected to have a $14 mill opening
Jun 29th 2013
88
Looks bad and is up against three other openers
Jun 29th 2013
89
      What's worse is it's budget is $130 million. Marinate on that...
Jul 09th 2013
104
prediction results so far:
Jun 30th 2013
91
RE: don't go nowhere near Frank's list, lol
Jun 30th 2013
92
      lol, I'm doing great with two exceptions, actually.
Jun 30th 2013
93
           I was about to say...
Jun 30th 2013
94
           RE: you got 3 major fuck ups
Jun 30th 2013
96
My Results as of June 30th
Jun 30th 2013
95
Update as of July 7, 2013
Jul 07th 2013
98
RE: Update as of July 7, 2013
Jul 07th 2013
99
      the power of Brad Pitt......dude is likable
Jul 07th 2013
100
      ... and the movie happens to be good, which begets word-of-mouth
Jul 08th 2013
101
           Agreed
Jul 08th 2013
102
           If women like your action flick, it'll be a hit. Period.
Jul 09th 2013
105
      I completely forgot to include Pacific Rim in my list
Jul 08th 2013
103
Lone Ranger looking at 190+ loss for Disney
Jul 10th 2013
106
update:
Jul 19th 2013
107
Rough weekend for Ryan Reynolds
Jul 20th 2013
108
He's a good actor with a bad eye for mainsteam flicks
Jul 20th 2013
109
Looking like Wolverine won't make the cut
Aug 03rd 2013
110
Current Standings: Congrats Frank!
Aug 23rd 2013
111
*pages whoever that was that was mocking how awful my picks were*
Aug 23rd 2013
112
Thanks for putting together the results
Aug 27th 2013
113
RE:oh hell naw
Aug 29th 2013
114
lmao @ a list revised after several had been released.
Aug 30th 2013
117
      RE: only 4 of the top 12 had been released
Aug 30th 2013
118
           I'm on pins and needles.
Aug 30th 2013
119
RE: OK i am doing the numbers
Aug 29th 2013
115
Going by your original list...
Sep 01st 2013
120
      RE: this is getting too complicated
Sep 01st 2013
121
RE: frank's list
Aug 29th 2013
116
RE: What really happened this summer?
Sep 01st 2013
122
the action films you named all had political messages
Sep 03rd 2013
123
Elysium is not a flop. Not a hit, but not a flop either.
Sep 11th 2013
125
      RE: i hate saying this but Damon is not a draw
Sep 11th 2013
126
           Um, Matt Damon still brings people in.
Sep 12th 2013
127
RE: Honorable Mention: We're the Millers
Sep 11th 2013
124

jswerve386
Member since Jun 25th 2007
8979 posts
Wed Apr-17-13 06:43 PM

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1. "I cant wait to up this at the end of the summer.. lol"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Wed Apr-17-13 07:15 PM

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2. "I can't wait to see your predictions"
In response to Reply # 1


          

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Tue Apr-23-13 01:15 PM

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3. "After Earth moves release date; Flop of the Summer?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Not quite sure what the studio was thinking. They've moved the release date up so now it's up against Now You See Me instead of The Internship (which looks awful) and it's a week after Hangover III/Fast and Furious 6, which means more competition. I thought they'd be much better off with a weekend between them and Hangover/Furious 6.

It'll still be tough to beat Lone Ranger for Flop of the Summer because of that film's insane budget but this could be a problem for Will. Men in Black III only opened to 50 million or so against less competition.

On the bright side, The Purge was moved against The Internship and I think it'll help that film, which looks pretty damn interesting. Granted, I have no idea why the studio is opening up films in back to back weekends.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Basaglia
Member since Nov 30th 2004
49463 posts
Tue Apr-23-13 04:04 PM

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4. "nope...these post-millenials bout to stun y'all. "
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

this about jaden, not will. 250 milli easy. 700 world.

____________________________________________________


Steph: I was just fooling about

Kyrie: I wasn't.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8OWNspU_yE

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Tue Apr-23-13 05:20 PM

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5. "Cosign. At absolute worst 225 domestic."
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

And overseas, folks will go bananas.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Tue Apr-23-13 05:44 PM

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6. "Will Smith hasn't broken 700 million since ID4"
In response to Reply # 5


          

You really think After Earth is going to be the 2nd biggest movie of Will's career? (And 4th biggest domestic after ID4, Men in Black, and I Am Legend)

I could see it making 170 million domestic (Karate Kid, MIB 3 money) but I'd be stunned if it broke 250 and think it's more likely to make closer to 100 million.

Maybe I'm underestimating the draw of Jaden but I just don't think many people are looking forward to After Earth (can't imagine it'll draw many women) and I think you guys are underestimating the impact that opening a week after Hangover III and Fast and Furious is going to have. It does have a more open 2nd weekend but then it's pretty much over as Man of Steel (and This is The End) open the following weekend.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Tue Apr-23-13 06:50 PM

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7. "I don't think it'll do 700 mil."
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

I think it'll do well worldwide-- not a flop. It should push towards 500 at worst.

I think domestically it could do Hancock numbers, yeah. And if I'm wrong, I still don't really see it doing far under 200 mil domestic. Since the budget is reported as 130 mil, nearing 200 mil domestic and let's say 500 mil worldwide would push it well out of the flop range IMO.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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ternary_star
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Wed Apr-24-13 07:56 AM

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9. "it'll have a huge opening weekend and the plummet"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

but you're right about international...they gonna eat it up

  

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Basaglia
Member since Nov 30th 2004
49463 posts
Fri Jun-07-13 03:54 PM

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80. "L for me"
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

____________________________________________________


Steph: I was just fooling about

Kyrie: I wasn't.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8OWNspU_yE

  

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spades
Member since Mar 22nd 2006
44258 posts
Thu Apr-25-13 03:55 PM

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16. "No way this flops."
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Thu Apr-25-13 05:01 PM

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17. "130 million is the PTP-defined "Flop" line for this"
In response to Reply # 16


          

The going definition has been Domestic Box Office << Budget = Flop so it has to crack that, which, it seems, most people besides me think it'll do.

But, seeing that the budget is only 130 though, there's no way it beats Lone Ranger and its 250 million dollar budget as Flop of the Summer.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Tue Apr-23-13 09:14 PM

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8. "RE: i predict i will be at home continuing to catch up"
In response to Reply # 0


          

on classics and rewatching my favorites. Got any recommendations?

  

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Tiger Woods
Member since Feb 15th 2004
18388 posts
Wed Apr-24-13 08:13 AM

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10. "I wouldn't be stunned if Despiable Me outdrew everything except "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Iron Man and Supes

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Fri Apr-26-13 08:13 PM

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21. "RE: I wouldn't be stunned if Despiable Me outdrew everything except "
In response to Reply # 10


          

>Iron Man and Supes

I agree
I expect World War Z, After Earth and 2Guns (which looks awful) to
take in less money than expected.

I am betting against *aging* actors in action roles.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Fri Apr-26-13 08:21 PM

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22. "Not sure much is expected from 2 Guns"
In response to Reply # 21


          

This August is packed with films that I think will make less than expected. Although I'm hoping Kick Ass 2 can break through.

I'm with you on After Earth and kind of feel like World War Z might struggle as well. It's the film I feel least confident about in my top 10.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Fri Apr-26-13 10:19 PM

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23. "RE: Not sure much is expected from 2 Guns"
In response to Reply # 22


          

i understand,

i think your top 7 is on point but in a different order.

Man of Steel( i think this will top Iron Man)
Iron Man 3
Despicable Me 2
Star Trek
Monsters University
Fast and the furious 6
Hangover 3

i am still catching up on trailers when i am done i will have the flop list.


  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Wed Apr-24-13 01:55 PM

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11. "Word of mouth on Man of Steel is gonna give it legs."
In response to Reply # 0


          

Just like Batman Begins. When y'all niggas see this shit your jaw is gonna drop. Niggas is gonna runteldat to everyone they know.

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Wed Apr-24-13 02:40 PM

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12. "If it's like Batman Begins, I'm in trouble"
In response to Reply # 11


          

Batman Begins still only made about 200 million. Although now that I look at it, I think I'm expecting too big of an open for Man of Steel. Batman Begins only opened to 48 million. Superman Returns to 52. I'm expecting a pretty huge open for Man of Steel; 80 million at least.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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will_5198
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Wed Apr-24-13 03:13 PM

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13. "what's the surprise comedy of the summer?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

--------

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Wed Apr-24-13 03:29 PM

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14. "Does "The Heat" count?"
In response to Reply # 13


          

That's my bet.

"This is the End" (the Apatow gang apocalypse movie) seems like it could make some scratch but it opens against Man of Steel which is a tough one. Although the trailer was pretty funny. Meanwhile, "The World's End" (Simon Pegg/Edgar Wright and friend's apocalypse movie) probably won't open big enough to make much noise.

Similarly, Grown Ups 2 opens against Pacific Rim, although I think it'll fair better than expected and Pacific Rim might disappoint a bit.

I'll be stunned if The Internship makes much noise.

With such a packed summer, I'm not sure if there will be any Magic Mike type surprises. I think This is the End and Grown Ups 2 will both come close to 100 million but I'm banking on The Heat as the comedy to break out (besides Hangover III, of course.)

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Wed Apr-24-13 04:05 PM

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15. "The Heat will be the biggest non-Hangover comedy imo."
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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nipsey
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9924 posts
Fri Apr-26-13 07:10 PM

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18. "RE: 2013 Summer (Domestic) Box Office Predictions"
In response to Reply # 0
Fri Apr-26-13 07:13 PM by nipsey

  

          

1. Iron Man 3 (425 million): Will outgross #2. Buzz is better.

2. Monsters University (325 million): Pixar looking to get its swagger back.

3. Star Trek: Into Darkness (300 million): Built in audience will propel this to higher gross than #1.

4. Man of Steel (275 million): Had trouble with this one. Although Superman movies have been sucking for a minute. People still love Superman.

5. Despicable Me 2 (275 million): Opens a month after Monsters U. Built in audience.

6. Lone Ranger ($250 million): It's no "Pirates".

7. The Hangover 3 (225 million): Another tough one. I was going to go < $200 million. But it's the highest profile comedy. I think it will counter program well.

8. Fast and Furious 6 (225 million): The grosses keep going up with each movie. Since Vin rejoined.

9. World War Z (169 million): Brad Pitt name and curiosity will drive this film. But if the reviews are bad I'd drop the prediction by $40 million.

10. Wolverine (150 million): Will gross less than the first one despite the fact it might actually be a better movie.

11. The Heat (140 million): Sandra Bullock is hit or miss, but Melissa McCarthy got that buzz.

EDIT:

After Earth ($95 million): I doubt it breaks $100 million.

____________________________________
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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Fri Apr-26-13 07:13 PM

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19. "One Weekend Until Kickoff... Here are the release dates"
In response to Reply # 0


          

http://boxofficemojo.com/schedule/

Forgot to post that in the initial post. Get your guesses in!

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Fri Apr-26-13 07:50 PM

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20. "RE: 2Guns"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Denzel and Mark Wahlberg are doing Lethal Weapon 5!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVNe3RK2fgI


This looks kinda meh,lol, i might be putting this on the no watch list.

  

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mrshow
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Fri Apr-26-13 11:25 PM

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24. "If Lone Ranger has good word of mouth, it'll do fine"
In response to Reply # 0


          

If it gets Battleship-esqe reviews, forget it.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Fri Apr-26-13 11:28 PM

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25. "Fine probably still means flop. It cost 250 million"
In response to Reply # 24


          

It has to have a big opening and great word of mouth to make anywhere close to that. I'm not saying that it can't happen (especially if Pacific Rim and Wolverine are bad and disappoint) but it's going to take all of Johnny Depp's good box-office will to meet that budget.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Thu May-02-13 07:34 PM

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26. "ADDENDUM: White House Down trailer won me over"
In response to Reply # 0
Thu May-02-13 07:44 PM by SoulHonky

          

I'm going to change up my #9 spot.
9. White House Down (135 million)

I'm rethinking #10. I was thinking Lone Ranger but Wolverine might stay there. Lone Ranger's competition is brutal.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Sat Jun-29-13 01:57 AM

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87. "Note: Always go with your first answer."
In response to Reply # 26


          

I'm going to pretend I didn't post this. WORLD WAR Z!

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Thu May-02-13 09:04 PM

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27. "I'll give this a whirl."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

The only thing I remember being right about last year is Avengers passing 600 mil, which I felt good about. I was crazy wrong on Ted though (though I think most everyone underestimated it, honestly).

1. Iron Man 3: 430 mil. Won't beat Avengers opening weekend but should give second place a real run for its money.

2. Man Of Steel: 325 mil. Exceeds expectations. If it's as good as I've been hearing it is, it could push 400.

3. Despicable Me 2: 300 mil. Realistic bets would be closer to 275-280, but kids fucking LOVE those Minions.

4. Star Trek 2: 280 mil. This thing has crowd-pleaser written all over it.

5. Monsters University: 230 mil. Could be really underestimating it due to not liking prequels.

6. After Earth: 225 mil. Obviously this is assuming it's halfway decent, which I believe it will be. If it's a critical dud, it will likely top out at 175... but I don't see it doing less than that. Kids LOVE Jaden Smith, everyone else loves Will.

7. Fast Six: 200 mil. Should be roughly what the last one did.

8. The Hangover Part III: 180 mil. I want to put this below The Heat... but every kid I know is twitching in anticipation of this.

9. The Heat: 175 mil. Not gonna underestimate the original comedy hit of this summer. Bullock plus McCarthy plus Feig? If it does less than 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, I'll knock it down to 150... but this thing should move units.

10. (tie) Pacific Rim: 140 mil. This one truly does depend on critical response. A really poorly received robot film ends up around 100-110. A critical smash might go closer to 175. I hedged my bets here.

10. (tie) Wolverine: 140 mil. I was stunned to find out the previous one did 180. This'll do less, but I don't think it'll flop entirely, since only Elysium seems likely to cross the 100 mil mark out of all non-animated flicks coming out in August.

12. (tie) World War Z: 130 mil. Still a flop, but I think it might exceed critical expectations, a la Men In Black 3, due to how low expectations currently are.

12. (tie) Elysium: 130 mil. Hoping this is a 90% and up RT score, letting it coast through August closer to 150. This is a safer bet.

14. White House Down: 125 mil. ALL HAIL EMMERICH. In a just world, this goes closer to 150-160.

15. Lone Ranger: 110 mil. Flop Central. Might not make it to 100. Nobody gives a shit about Westerns.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
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will_5198
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Fri May-03-13 01:27 AM

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28. "let me guess Man of Steel wins the year"
In response to Reply # 0


          

purely anecdotal, but I don't feel the same buzz for Iron Man 3. while I have no faith in Snyder, the marketing has been perfect and this reboot feels like the "it" franchise the public will rally to this summer.

--------

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Fri May-03-13 01:56 AM

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29. "I'd be stunned if Iron Man 3 makes less than 150 mil this weekend."
In response to Reply # 28
Fri May-03-13 01:56 AM by Frank Longo

  

          

Realistically, closer to 175.

And it's funny and entertaining enough that it should have legs.

I agree that folks underrate what Man of Steel is going to do though. Wouldn't be surprised to see it push the 400 mil mark if reviews are consistent with advance word.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
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will_5198
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Fri May-03-13 02:21 AM

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30. "I mean, they put zero effort into Iron Man 2"
In response to Reply # 29


          

and did $300 million anyway. but the marketing for Man of Steel has really impressed me, especially as a guy who is not a big Supes fan. the washed out palette and tone is hitting that Nolan-sweet spot very nicely.

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Fri May-03-13 11:23 AM

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31. "Iron Man 3 is breaking records overseas"
In response to Reply # 30


          

Most people are predicting a 160 - 180 opening weekend here.

Iron Man 2 was hurt by the fact that Marvel decided to use it to help launch Avengers. They basically tried to make a sequel to Iron Man and a prequel to Avengers and did a shitty job with it.

If Iron Man 3 was coming right after Iron Man 2, I'd agree that it would make less but it's coming after the Avengers which will help it. On the other hand, Man of Steel still has to deal with the stink of Superman Returns and first reboot movies always make less than the subsequent films. I think it'll be top five but I'd be surprised if it beat Iron Man.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Fri May-03-13 11:33 AM

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32. "Exactly. Iron Man 3 is now an Avengers sequel, not an Iron Man sequel."
In response to Reply # 31


  

          

The most popular character in the biggest comic book movie ever has a new flick a year later? Cha-ching. Second highest grossing opening weekend ever is very doable.

Plus, having seen it, it's gonna be a crowd-pleaser with legs.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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will_5198
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Fri May-03-13 12:51 PM

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33. "I don't think Returns factors in at all, but you're right about"
In response to Reply # 31
Fri May-03-13 12:51 PM by will_5198

          

everything else

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
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Fri May-03-13 01:41 PM

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34. "Man of Steel will have MAJOR legs"
In response to Reply # 28


          

I'm telling you, niggas are gonna go back for seconds and thirds and telling everyone they know about it.

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Fri May-03-13 02:57 PM

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35. "Wall Street weighs in"
In response to Reply # 0
Fri May-03-13 03:01 PM by SoulHonky

          

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/#more-489559

After Earth, The Lone Ranger, R.I.P.D., and World War Z are among the “most notable candidates” to join the ranks of “several high profile failures” from the major studios that Cowen and Co’s Doug Creutz predicts this morning. He worries Summer 2013 has “the most crowded release slate in recent memory” and could produce at least 8 underperformers. Creutz has been making these domestic predictions for 5 of the last seven years.

1. Iron Man 3: 350m
2. Monsters U: 250m
3. Star Trek: 250m
4. Despicable Me 2: 250m
5. Hangover Part III: 225m
6. Man of Steel: 220m
7. Fast and Furious 6: 200M
8. The Wolverine: 190m
9. Turbo: 171m
10. The Great Gatsby: 150m
10. Pacific Rim: 150m

Grown Ups 2: 125m
Lone Ranger 120m
Epic: 100m
White House Down: 90m
World War Z: 85m
Smurfs 2: 80m
After Earth: 80m
This is the End: 75m
Red 2: 75m
The Heat: 70m
The Internship: 70m
RIPD: 50m

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Fri May-03-13 03:19 PM

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36. "LOL at Hangover 3 higher than Man of Steel"
In response to Reply # 35


          

>http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/#more-489559
>
>After Earth, The Lone Ranger, R.I.P.D., and World War Z are
>among the “most notable candidates” to join the ranks of
>“several high profile failures” from the major studios that
>Cowen and Co’s Doug Creutz predicts this morning.

No way R.I.P.D. makes major bank seeing as they just put out a trailer that looks like MIB lite, looks like at BEST can be something that people go "*shrugs* It was fun.", and Ryan Reynolds and comic book movies do not mix. It also opens the weekend after Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2, the same weekend as RED 2 and Turbo, and the next weekend The Wolverine opens, it pretty much has no shot in hell on making major bank.

He worries
>Summer 2013 has “the most crowded release slate in recent
>memory” and could produce at least 8 underperformers. Creutz
>has been making these domestic predictions for 5 of the last
>seven years.
>

Yea shit is OD packed this summer. Stuff is bound to fall through the cracks. Seeing as The Lone Ranger drops after a heavy June and is opening against Despicable Me 2, it living on a prayer right now.



>1. Iron Man 3: 350m
>2. Monsters U: 250m
>3. Star Trek: 250m
>4. Despicable Me 2: 250m
>5. Hangover Part III: 225m
>6. Man of Steel: 220m
>7. Fast and Furious 6: 200M
>8. The Wolverine: 190m
>9. Turbo: 171m
>10. The Great Gatsby: 150m
>10. Pacific Rim: 150m
>
>Grown Ups 2: 125m
>Lone Ranger 120m
>Epic: 100m
>White House Down: 90m
>World War Z: 85m
>Smurfs 2: 80m
>After Earth: 80m
>This is the End: 75m
>Red 2: 75m
>The Heat: 70m
>The Internship: 70m
>RIPD: 50m

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Fri May-03-13 05:22 PM

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37. "Yep. I thought he was too high on Wolverine/Turbo too"
In response to Reply # 36


          

I think this is going to be a bad summer for Ryan Reynolds.

And, yeah, unless Hangover III is hilarious (which I highly doubt) I think it'll make less than the second movie did. And I agree that he's underestimating Man of Steel.

I'd love to find this guy's previous Summer Box Office predictions because a lot of his numbers seem off.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Fri May-03-13 05:33 PM

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38. "RE: Yep. I thought he was too high on Wolverine/Turbo too"
In response to Reply # 37


          

Yea, Wolvie will do them overseas numbers, but here it's only gonna do $150. And Turbo is definitely not gonna clear $150 unless it's amazing.

------------------------------------------
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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Fri May-03-13 10:55 PM

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41. "RE: 2013 Summer box office flops"
In response to Reply # 0


          

300 sequel
R.I.P.D.
The Internship
The Lone Ranger, will gross between 120- 130 million.
World War Z i say this will be about 90 million.
After Earth, 105 million.

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
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Sun May-05-13 01:15 PM

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43. "RE: 2013 Summer box office flops"
In response to Reply # 41


          

>300 sequel
Saw a teaser during my IMAX press day and was not that impressed. Granted, we weren't shown much since it was a teaser, but my question is WB waited this long to do something else with the franchise why not wait a little longer since Zack Snyder said he'd love to come back? Also, there's still no PUBLICLY released material besides a basic website with very little info and a poster.
>R.I.P.D.
Already stated in previous post
>The Internship
So sick of seeing trailers for this.
>The Lone Ranger, will gross between 120- 130 million.
I'd be surpised it'd make that much
>World War Z i say this will be about 90 million.
Maybe.
>After Earth, 105 million.
More like 90 million.

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Sun May-05-13 04:38 PM

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44. "RE: 2013 Summer box office flops"
In response to Reply # 43


          


>>The Lone Ranger, will gross between 120- 130 million.
>I'd be surpised it'd make that much
>>World War Z i say this will be about 90 million.
>Maybe.
>>After Earth, 105 million.
>More like 90 million.
>
i know my projections may be a bit high but i was trying not to be so grim.

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Sun May-05-13 05:20 PM

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45. "Fuck that. Go fangs out in that shit."
In response to Reply # 44


          

nm

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Sun May-05-13 05:52 PM

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46. "I would place money on After Earth passing double digits."
In response to Reply # 43


  

          

Easiest bet in the world.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Tue May-07-13 04:53 PM

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50. "Domesticly no."
In response to Reply # 46


          

With Fast & Furious 6, Epic, and Hangover 3 the previous weekend, opening the same weekend as Now You See Me (which will be a sleeper hit)and The Purge (which again I think will be a sleeper hit provided it thrills as much as the trailer did).

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Sun May-12-13 04:19 PM

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58. "I'd bet on it doing triple digit mil domestically, yeah."
In response to Reply # 50
Sun May-12-13 04:20 PM by Frank Longo

  

          

It will be opening bigger than Now You See Me (that's another bet I'd make, an easier one too), and The Purge crowd is a totally different audience.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Tue May-28-13 01:23 PM

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65. "RE: I'd bet on it doing triple digit mil domestically, yeah."
In response to Reply # 58


          

Still think this is gonna do tripe digit domestically?

Cause it's not happening.

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Tue May-28-13 04:31 PM

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66. "When all is said and done, yeah."
In response to Reply # 65


  

          

A Will Smith action film hasn't failed to hit 100 mil domestically since the original Bad Boys. Feels like a safer bet than betting against it hitting 100 mil domestic.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Wed May-29-13 10:12 PM

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71. "RE: If they were making Bad Boys 3 i would bet on that,lol"
In response to Reply # 66


          

Wiil and Martin yeah they would get my money but not Will and Shyamalan.

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Fri May-31-13 03:03 PM

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72. "So do you STILL think it's gonna do triple digits in the US of A?"
In response to Reply # 66


          

Cause this shit is pretty much DOA. Not to mention the juggernaut that is Man of Steel right around the corner.


I mean son, Now You See Me did more business last night that After Earth...

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Fri May-31-13 04:43 PM

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73. "If it doesn't pass 25, then no, I don't."
In response to Reply # 72
Fri May-31-13 04:44 PM by Frank Longo

  

          

If it gets to 35-40, I think it still has a chance.

But seeing as how literally no one had it going under 25 opening weekend, I don't feel too bad about it if I'm wrong.

I do still think overall it'll open higher than Now You See Me, despite Thursday's numbers.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Sun Jun-02-13 11:27 AM

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76. "I told you Now You See Me would be a sleeper hit...."
In response to Reply # 73


          

...and After Earth opening against it was a bad idea...

Niggas never wanna listen to bwood though...

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/now-you-see-me-pulls-28-mil-plus-rabbit-beating-after-earth-with-27-mil-1200491051/

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Sun Jun-02-13 11:03 PM

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77. "RE: Now you see me with more dollars than Will Smith,lol"
In response to Reply # 76


          

i overestimated a bit myself. My new projection for AE is 70-75 million.

  

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ErnestLee
Member since Mar 03rd 2003
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Sun Jun-23-13 05:16 PM

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82. "I hope you dont bet much."
In response to Reply # 46


  

          

>Easiest bet in the world.

---------------------------------------------------------

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Sat May-04-13 12:11 AM

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42. "RE: 2013 Summer (Domestic) Box Office Predictions"
In response to Reply # 0


          

1. Man of Steel, 375 million
2. Iron Man 3, 350 million
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Star rek
5. Monster's University
6. Fast and Furious 6
7. Hangover 3
8. Wolverine
9. Pacific Rim
10. Turbo tie with The Heat
I see these grossing about 140-150 million
11. Elysium
the next three will make between 120-130
The Smurfs 2, Grown ups 2 and the Lone ranger
The Great Gatsby will do about 115 million


  

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Beamer6178
Member since Jan 09th 2006
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Sun May-05-13 10:04 PM

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47. "Tony's already halfway there"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3682&p=.htm

  

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Buddy_Gilapagos
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48. "Are there any real sleeper Comedies out there?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

The comedies mentioned so far have all the usual suspects. Doesn't have to be a 100+ but something at least the critics love and exceeds expectations like (500) Days of Summer?


**********
"naive as the dry leaves on the ground looking past the trees to the blue sky asking 'why me?'" -Blu

Why I still fuzz with the Lesson
http://open.spotify.com/user/brothersport86/playlist/3DhEhilho77Z0UCPbJlEJf

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Tue May-07-13 04:18 PM

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49. "It'll be hard in a packed summer"
In response to Reply # 48


          

The Way, Way Back looks alright and could be a nice surprise. The Kings of Summer got a lot of festival buzz but I have zero faith in CBS films being able to promote it. Ditto for The To-Do List, although that might do alright in spite of CBS Films. The indie crowd/critics will probably love Frances Ha, but I don't see it catching on. And there's always Tyler Perry presenting Peeples.

Then again, I never would have banked on The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel being a hit last summer so you never can tell which films will catch on and which won't be discovered until DVD.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Thu May-09-13 09:32 PM

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51. "And the GI Joe Award for Summer Relocation goes to..."
In response to Reply # 0
Thu May-09-13 09:51 PM by SoulHonky

          

"Well, the writing was on the wall for this one. Originally set for a release this August, 300: Rise of an Empire was one of the few summer films we had yet to see in action in any capacity. In a move that should surprise no one, Warner Bros. has now delayed Smart People director Noam Murro‘s spin-off seven months.

According to THR, the film will now land on March 7th, 2014, a familiar territory, considering Zack Snyder‘s original 2007 film was a major hit in the same timeframe. This isn’t the first time an extended delay has occurred with one of the company’s tentpoles, as last year, Bryan Singer‘s Jack the Giant Slayer was lifted from its summer slot and set in the same month where the new 300 is headed."

http://thefilmstage.com/news/300-rise-of-an-empire-delayed-seven-months-tom-cruise-will-kill-next-summer-instead/

This is good news for 2 Guns which now has no adult fare against it (Smurfs 2 is the only major release that weekend) as well as The Wolverine which opens the weekend before (although The To Do List just moved to the Wolverine's weekend and could steals some of its audience.)
I wonder if the buzz around Wolverine is bad because it's odd that the studio would move it away from Kick-Ass 2 in favor of going up against The Wolverine. Although the original weekend had Paranoia, Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Austenland, and Prince Avalanche opening as well so maybe they just didn't like having that much competition.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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nipsey
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Sun May-12-13 08:42 AM

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52. "Great Gatsby opening at $50 million +"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I didn't see that coming.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/the-great-gatsby-overperforms-for-3-250-late-shows-breaking-record-for-female-driven-films/

SATURDAY PM/SUNDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: There’s more good news at the box office for the start of Summer 2013. Domestic grosses for Warner Bros‘ The Great Gatsby (3,035 theaters) just keep going strong. Big online seller Fandango tells me this female-driven film is heading into Mother’s Day and ticket sales show no signs of flagging across the country from city to heartland. Despite audiences giving it a ‘B’ CinemaScore. In addition to moviegoers showing up dressed in 1930s period costumes, exhibitors are reporting some audiences spontaneously bursting into applause when Leonardo first appears on screen. (When’s the last time that happened?) That’s prompted some Hollywood execs to speculate this is the original Titanic crowd. Warner Bros hopes the Baz Luhrmann-directed, DiCaprio starrer ”perfectly counter-programs” all the May action movies. My sources’ latest estimates for the 3D tentpole are $19.4M for Thursday/Friday, and -6% for $18M Saturday. Hollywood is expecting an overperforming $52M first weekend for the romantic drama co-financed by Village Roadshow and based on F. Scott Fitzgerald’s 1925 classic novel. The #1 film is still Disney/Marvel’s Iron Man 3 (which has the biggest theater count at 4,253) with $19.7M Friday (-72% from last Friday’s huge opening) and a huge $33M Saturday for $75M this weekend. (Last year The Avengers made an incredible $103M in its second weekend…) Before Friday, IM3 grossed $794M — international cume $581.6M and domestic $212.4M. Now the North American cume should be $287.4M through Sunday. Yowza! The only other major newcomer is Lionsgate’s Peeples (2,031 theaters), a ‘Tyler Perry Presents’ comedy not written or directed by him but by Tina Gordon Chism. It received a ‘B-’ CinemaScore and weak grosses even for a tiny budget of $15M: $1.1M Friday and $1.8M Saturday for a $4.2M weekend.

Gatsby‘s success might all seem surprising considering the film’s uneven reviews. Then again these critics — the vast majority white middle-aged men — are complaining about Luhrmann’s supposed “sacrilege” in adding hip-hop to Gatsby which of course is set in the decade dubbed “The Jazz Age”. Way to make themselves look old and out of touch. (Are these the same purists who piled on when Bob Dylan went electric? I found the music a fresh touch.) While Leo’s and Tobey Maguire’s performances are praised, Carey Mulligan’s is not. Then again there were misgivings in the media from the day the extravagant Baz project was first announced – the 4th attempt to film the novel after Warner Baxter starred in 1926, Alan Ladd in 1949, and Robert Redford in 1974. But tracking told a different story: it was strong from the day Lurhmann’s version co-scripted with Craig Pearce came on — especially heavy with females but also registering decently with men. The Great Gatsby kept improving its numbers as the full frills and very effective marketing campaign took hold. Even without P&A, the movie’s cost reportedly ballooned up to $200M. But Warner Bros claims that figure is $160M, which was brought down to $105M because of ”tons of rebates” from Luhrmann’s Australia filming location. That was then split 50-50 between the studio and co-financier Village Roadshow. (Initially the budget was $80M when Sony passed, and then $120M when Warner Bros and Village Roadshow first came aboard.)

Every penny is on the screen with Catherine Martin, Luhrmann’s wife, in charge of costumes and production design. Some still question the need for 3D but not if it allows the filmmakers to pocket those ticket premiums. As the media scrutiny became more intense, Luhrmann weathered heavy rain and fog that caused costly delays during filming in Sydney. A freak on-set accident even sent Luhrmann to the hospital, causing more holdups. That was before the studio pushed his Gatsby‘s release date back half a year from Christmas 2012 to Summer 2013 to finish effects and music and do reshoots. Luhrmann was conspicuously absent from March’s Gatsby-hyping CinemaCon for exhibitors because, as he said in a pre-taped greeting, he was still tweaking the pic weeks before release. Crunched for time, he couldn’t even fly back to Australia to direct the reshoots in person. Instead he Skyped in to direct from NY where he was simultaneously piecing together a re-edit.

Generating buzz internationally for this most American of novels, pic has scored the Cannes opening slot for a glitzy event. Warner Bros opens it wide in 49 territories next weekend, including France, UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, Russia and Korea.

Domestically, The Great Gatsby already is a $3.25M record-breaker, doing more Thursday 10 PM/Friday midnight business from approximately 2,000 theaters than three other recent female-driven films – overperforming Sex And The City 2 ($3M), the first Sex And The City ($2.5M), and Oz The Great And Powerful ($2M). Early matinees Friday were very strong with lots of pre-sales, too, as the lush 3D drama expanded into 3,535 locations (including over 3,000 3D locations in the mix) its opening weekend. The studio would have been thrilled with a $35M debut, but rival studios expected at least $45M-$50M. As of 5 PM Thursday, Gatsby comprised 67% of ticket sales despite Iron Man 3‘s continued momentum.

According to a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 Gatsby ticket-buyers, 83% said DiCaprio is the actor they most want to see in the film (8% said Carey Mulligan, 7% Tobey Maguire), 80% have read the novel by F. Scott Fitzgerald, 61% consider themselves fans of director Luhrmann, 58% of those fans had seen Luhrmann’s Moulin Rouge, and 55% are planning to attend a Gatsby get-together either before or after seeing the movie. As for the film itself, 94% said the grand-scale imagery, costumes and set design inspired them to buy a ticket, and 83% said the film’s eclectic soundtrack with selections from Jay-Z, Beyoncé and Andre 3000 appealed to them.

____________________________________
Podcast Now on iTunes and Google:
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Twitter: @nipsey @JTTOUPodcast

Last 3 things I watched:

The Changeling Season 1 (Apple+): C
OMITB Season 3 (Hulu): B-
Ahsoka Season 1 (Disney

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Sun May-12-13 12:01 PM

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53. "I expect a huge second week drop"
In response to Reply # 52


          

51 is definitely surprising but it doesn't seem to have much positive word of mouth and Star Trek is opening next weekend (and getting good reviews), I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't break 30 million next week.

Still, I thought it might top off at high 90's but breaking 100 million seems inevitable unless its box office falls off a cliff.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Sun May-12-13 01:20 PM

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54. "RE:Reply to 52 and 53"
In response to Reply # 53
Sun May-12-13 01:26 PM by maternalbliss

          

Y'all niggas don't know Leonardo is a star and a fucking draw.

He is actually the only actor i would bet on to star in a period film released during summer season and expect it do great numbers. 50 million not shocked at all. Easy bet.


Remember i said i was betting against aging actors in action roles,which is why i think Man of Steel could outgross Iron Man 3.

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Sun May-12-13 04:18 PM

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57. "Yeah, you're flat out lying, lol."
In response to Reply # 54


  

          

>Y'all niggas don't know Leonardo is a star and a fucking
>draw.
>
>He is actually the only actor i would bet on to star in a
>period film released during summer season and expect it do
>great numbers. 50 million not shocked at all. Easy bet.

It's such an easy bet... that he's never done it before in a period film. Not even close. He got 30 mil opening weekend for Catch Me If You Can and Django. 50 is his biggest non-Inception opening. Which is why, coincidentally, not a single pundit bet on Gatsby to sniff 50 mil opening weekend. Including you.

His last period starring vehicle didn't even do 50 mil for its whole run, lol.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Sun May-12-13 05:45 PM

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59. "To be fair, she did peg it at 115 million"
In response to Reply # 57


          

And with all of the competition in the next two weeks, it needed a big opening like this to make it to that.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Sun May-12-13 06:27 PM

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60. "Every summer drama that opened to 30 mil hit 120 mil total box office."
In response to Reply # 59
Sun May-12-13 06:28 PM by Frank Longo

  

          

No summer drama without plenty of action has ever opened to north of 40 mil.

I can believe if she expected 35 to 40 with a 115 prediction. Not "50 million. Easy bet." A "easily 50 mil" opening for a summer drama without action sequences... doesn't exist.

Only three movies *ever* opened to 50 mil and made less than 115 mil total. So... yeah. It's a stretch for her to say she saw 50 mil opening period, much less "easy bet."

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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will_5198
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Sun May-12-13 07:09 PM

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62. "lol, we getting mad about this shit now?"
In response to Reply # 60


          

--------

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
86672 posts
Sun May-12-13 07:35 PM

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63. "I'm mostly just bored."
In response to Reply # 62


  

          

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Sun May-12-13 06:39 PM

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61. "RE: all of leo's films make money even his misfires"
In response to Reply # 57


          

>>Y'all niggas don't know Leonardo is a star and a
>fucking
>>draw.
>>
>>He is actually the only actor i would bet on to star in a
>>period film released during summer season and expect it
>do
>>great numbers. 50 million not shocked at all. Easy bet.
>
>It's such an easy bet... that he's never done it before
For an actor who has not done a sequel, franchise, cartoon, or a comedy he has had a pretty good career. You not gonna have a big opening unless you doing the hollywood formula but every now and then you get an exception.

in a
>period film. Not even close. He got 30 mil opening weekend for
>Catch Me If You Can
that film opened in december and went on to become the 11th highest grossing movie of 2002. CMIYC is a great movie.

and Django. 50 is his biggest
>non-Inception opening. Which is why, coincidentally, not a
>single pundit bet on Gatsby to sniff 50 mil opening weekend.
>Including you.
I actually did predict The Great Gatsby would crack 100million. I actually predicted 115 million. The Great Gatsby >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>After Earth.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
According to this article a guy named Doug Creutz(wall street)
http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/summer-tentpole-movies-bomb/

says TGG could make 150million. Do these guys know something we don't?
w

Dicaprio is the throwback to old hollywood. That's why he's been cast in a lot of nostalgic/period movies. He was the perfect choice to play Gatsby. He got that forties/fifties face and it got that fifty million this weekend.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Sun May-12-13 01:49 PM

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55. "Entertainment Weekly weighs in "
In response to Reply # 0


          

1. Iron Man - 400 million
2. Man of Steel - 325 million
3. Star Trek - 285 mllion
4. Monsters U. - 285 million
5. Despicable Me 2 - 250 million
6. Fast and Furious 6 - 235 million
7. Hangover III - 195 million
8. The Wolverine - 170 million
9. White House Down - 165 million
10. Pacific Rim - 150 million

Honorable Mention - The Heat

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Sun May-12-13 03:41 PM

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56. "RE:i am adding another one to the flop list"
In response to Reply # 0


          

White House Down

I was considering it and now that i have found out it is opening the same weekend as The Heat i got to bet against it. This film has the same plot as Olympus has fallen and that film has not even hit 100 million yet.

White House Down 80-95 million

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Tue May-28-13 01:18 PM

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64. "Damn. Hangover III might not make Top 10"
In response to Reply # 0


          

With the word of mouth being so shitty, I doubt it'll be able to catch Gatsby.

I definitely underestimated Fast 6. It should probably beat my prediction by this weekend.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Tue May-28-13 04:32 PM

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67. "I KNEW I shoulda put The Heat above it, lol."
In response to Reply # 64


  

          

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Tue May-28-13 07:51 PM

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68. "I'm starting to wonder about This is the End."
In response to Reply # 67


          

Getting great word of mouth.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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will_5198
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Tue May-28-13 07:56 PM

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69. "I can't get over how average The Heat's trailer is"
In response to Reply # 68


          

they showed most of the interrogation scene during a preview weeks ago and the audience barely laughed. where as This is the End had a great trailer; it's only issue is Man of Steel.

still, people seem to love Bullock and McCarthy.

--------

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Tue May-28-13 08:06 PM

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70. "Yeah, I'll happily be wrong about The Heat"
In response to Reply # 69


          

Because I thought it looked painful.

I really don't get why they are opening This is the End against Man of Steel. Sony/Columbia's whole summer release schedule is kind of out of whack IMO. And they had no issue moving After Earth so why not move This is The End as well?

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NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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mrshow
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Fri May-31-13 04:49 PM

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74. "It's counter-programming..."
In response to Reply # 70


          

Superman is anything but a comedy.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Fri May-31-13 06:03 PM

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75. "Kind of the same demo though"
In response to Reply # 74


          

Counter programming usually works better when you don't go after the same demographic.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Mon Jun-03-13 12:19 AM

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78. "RE: revised list (OK i guess i am cheating a little) but"
In response to Reply # 0
Mon Jun-03-13 12:47 AM by maternalbliss

          

i think everybody should be entitled to another shot at it since we all messed up with the Hangover 3.

1. Man of Steel, 400+ million
2. Iron Man 3, 400+ million
3. Despicable Me 2 280-300 million
4. Monster's University 250million
5. Fast and Furious 6 235 million
6. Star Trek, 225 million
7. Wolverine, 150-160 million
8. The heat, 145-155 million
9/10. Turbo tie Great Gatsby 140 million
11. Pacific Rim, 135million
12/13/14, I see these grossing about 120-130 million
The hanover, The Lone Ranger, Elysium
15. The smurfs 115 million
16. Grown ups 2 105 million

After Earth 70-75million





  

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wallysmith
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Fri Jun-07-13 11:25 AM

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79. "Google: Search & YouTube key predictors of box office performance "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Click through for graphs and Google's full report. Pretty interesting metrics, and I'm curious to see how it'll hold up for future releases.

http://thenextweb.com/google/2013/06/06/google-search-hits-youtube-views-are-key-predictors-of-a-movies-box-office-performance/?awesm=tnw.to_i0fXW

Google has released a white paper that shows a proportional impact on a movie’s box office success based on the number of searches that it receives. Among the insights, the company highlights that users are more likely to watch a particular movie once they have thoroughly researched it. Additionally, studios and filmmakers are able to better decipher what users want based on the number and type of searches run.

The idea behind the white paper is to find a way to quantify this so-called “movie magic”, the ability to better understand what audiences want to see and create the perfect marketing campaign to promote a blockbuster film. And while the ability to track films has been around for quite some time, in the Internet age, it’s completely understandable why studios and interested parties are turning to one of the top search engines in the world to derive better analytics.

According to Google:

When it comes to researching a new movie, 61% of moviegoers state that they turn to online resources. More specifically, almost half are going online and searching for this information.

It’s believed that there is a correlation between the number of searches for a particular movie and its success at the box office. Google theorizes that if search was a reflection of interest and intent, the more searches done in a given weekend about a film, the bigger the box office.

Google says that there is a strong link between these two factors. Granted, not all movies are created equal and the company appears to be making some generalities in the above chart instead of breaking it down by the top movies of the year. But, for example, was Avengers a box office success because of the number of queries?

The study indicates that the company did, in fact, look at some of the year’s top films including Hunger Games and The Dark Knight. It reports that the number of searches did spike and presumes that it’s due to higher awareness and interest — thus, people are not searching for general information about the films, but the specific titles themselves.

And it’s not just organic searches that can have an impact on a movie’s success. Google states that paid clicks can predict the number of tickets sold for films set to be released prior to the weekend. It believes that its AdWords service plays a role in predicting a film’s success as it “signifies deeper engagement on a particular film.” This may be true because in a strange sense, if you see an ad for a product and you click it online, there’s some investment you’ve made in the film versus seeing it listed and wanting to know more about the plot.

But a movie is much more than a three day premiere. Google looked at a film’s box office performance beyond opening weekend and found that “the number of paid clicks a film garners during a Monday-Thursday period post-premiere, coupled with a few other film-related metrics” will be an indicator of how a specific movie will fare against new premieres and other holdover films.

The search engine company hypothesized that while the number of search queries for a particular film post-premiere aren’t significant enough to predict future box office performance, paid ads are. Google says that if a film receives 10,000 more paid clicks than “a similar handover film”, it’s more likely to to bring in $1.9 million to $3.5 million more.

Out of all the other Google properties, this white paper also cites YouTube as an influencer in determining a movie’s success, and rightfully so. The company says that searches done on the video sharing service can really predict how well a movie will do four weeks before its release — a better indicator than search.

In short, search marketing plays a big factor in helping a movie’s bottom line. Sure, there can be ads on television, publications, and even a dedicated website, but one of the main ways someone discovers a film is out there is through search. And since Google practically dominates the search market, it’s no wonder that it can offer a pretty telling view about how queries can affect box office performance.

  

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SoulHonky
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81. "65% drop for Man of Steel"
In response to Reply # 0
Sun Jun-23-13 02:30 PM by SoulHonky

          

Looks like it's going to limp towards 300 million domestically, especially with a competitive weekend coming up with White House Down and The Heat.

With so much competition this summer, it looks like the non-Iron Man Top Ten might all be coming in lower than expected (well, I underestimated FuriouSix. The 66 million dollar opening should help World War Z but I think it could also have a huge drop ala Man of Steel because of next weekend's releases.

----
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maternalbliss
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83. "RE:lol, You taking a jab at me,lol okay maybe i ..."
In response to Reply # 81


          

deserve it. Fuck them critics. MOS is a solid flick. I am still rooting for it. If not 400 million then 350.


>Looks like it's going to limp towards 300 million
Limping? Naw, i think it will spend several weeks in the top ten like IM3 and Fast 6.




>domestically, especially with a competitive weekend coming up
>with White House Down and The Heat.
The Heat gonna take that top spot. I predict a 50 million opening.



>
>With so much competition this summer, it looks like the
>non-Iron Man Top Ten might all be coming in lower than
>expected
Despite this there should be at least one other film breaking 300 million. If not Man of Steel then it has to be them silly ass minions, lol.



(well, I underestimated FuriouSix. The 66 million
>dollar opening should help World War Z but I think it could
>also have a huge drop ala Man of Steel because of next
>weekend's releases.

Was definitely shocked that World War Z had such a big opening. Despite this i still say it is a flop. I predict it will drop 70% next weekend.


>
>

  

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mrshow
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84. "White House Down will be huge"
In response to Reply # 81


          

Good trailers and it sticks out as seeming different in the sea of super hero flicks and established franchises.

  

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SoulHonky
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85. ""Seeming different" definitely isn't a strength"
In response to Reply # 84


          

>Good trailers and it sticks out as seeming different in the
>sea of super hero flicks and established franchises.

Everyone I know who saw the trailer said, "Didn't that come out already? Wasn't there a movie just like it?" Which there was, in Olympus has Fallen.

And Channing's ability to draw in the women will be tested since it's going up against Bullock and McCarthy in the first female led movie in months.

Still, I could see a 50 million dollar opening for both. HSX is predicting 45 for WHD and 40 for The Heat.

----
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nipsey
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86. "White House down is looking like a "flop" so far"
In response to Reply # 84


  

          

http://www.deadline.com/2013/06/first-box-office-the-heat-1-monsters-u-2-wwz-3-white-house-down-4-man-of-steel-5/


Friday Box Office Changing Hour By Hour: ‘The Heat’ #2, ‘White House Down’ #3, While Prequel ‘Monsters University’ Still Strong #1

By NIKKI FINKE, Editor in Chief | Friday June 28, 2013 @ 9:37pm PDT
Tags: Box Office, Melissa McCarthy, The Heat, White House Down

FRIDAY 9:45 PM 2ND UPDATE: Wow, tonight’s Top 5 order of finish is changing as fast as I can type. Newcomers Twentieth Century Fox’s The Heat and Sony Pictures’ White House Down add to an already crowded pre-Fourth Of July domestic box office. Pixar/Disney’s huge hit from a weekago Monsters University is still #1. Fandango reported that the Melissa McCarthy-Sandra Bullock buddy comedy was the #1 ticketseller among new releases, selling 50% more advance tickets than at the same time for director Paul Feig’s previous hit Bridesmaids. Tonight The Heat is on fire as #2. Latest word is that the Channing Tatum/Jamie Foxx actioner is gaining as the night goes on and will finish Friday #3. Though its high cost endangers its ability to earn out. Neither new pics’ Thursday late show/Friday midnight grosses were significant. Based on early evening trends, my sources say numbers look like this for Friday. Updates and analysis to follow:

1. Monsters University 3D (Pixar/Disney) Week 2 G
Friday $16.7M, Est Weekend $51.0M, Est Cume $173.7M

Great -45% weekend hold. Should easily stay in #1 after the Saturday kiddie bump. But window for family fare will need to expand once Universal’s sequel Despicable Me 2 hits marketplace wide on July 3rd.

2. The Heat (Fox) NEW R
Friday $15.0M, Est Weekend $40.6M

Can’t help praising how the women brought the heat for this $41M-budget buddy comedy. Chalk up another strong box office performance for McCarthy and Bullock who began with $1M from Thursday’s 10 PM shows and Friday’s midnights. Should end #2 for the weekend behind Pixar’s family fare. Interesting that a Fandango survey showed 88% of ticketbuyers said they wanted more female-oriented laughers.

3. White House Down (Sony) NEW
Friday $11.0M, Est Weekend $33.5M

Unfortunately earlier release Olympus Has Fallen had a similar plot. Sony admits White House Down is in a tough slot now after WWZ opened so surprisingly strong last weekend. White House pic did $1.35M in Thursday late shows/Friday midnights. Studio claims budget was $150M which is expensive. (“If you see the movie, you will see the money on the screen. And compared to other summer fare and budgets, it very reasonable given the film,” a Sony exec tells me.) No way this pic earns out. Could be big loss depending how it does overseas. Opens day and date in about two dozen small countries this weekend (ie Aruba, Ethiopia, Kenya, Iraq). The first major international territory will not open until mid-July.

4. World War Z 3D (Paramount) Week 2 PG13
Friday $9.8M (-61%), Est Weekend $32.5M, Est Cume $126.5M

After last week’s surprise success, new audiences will check it out. Expect a -50% weekend hold.

5. Man Of Steel 3D (:egendary/Warner Bros) Week 3
Friday $6.5M, Weekend $21.5M, Est Cume $250.0M

Maybe too stiff box office competition for Superman right now continuing into the Fourth Of July holiday.

____________________________________
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maternalbliss
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90. "RE: see post # 56"
In response to Reply # 86


          

IMO, White House Down will do After Earth numbers. It will be a colossal flop.

My predictions list included only films that i thought would break 100 million and i have missed a few. Now you see me has done quite well and so has Epic. World War Z has done better than expected but it is still a flop. I think it had a budget over 200 million. Definitely underperforming.

  

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mrshow
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97. "I'll take my L"
In response to Reply # 86


          

Thought audiences wanted an old fshioned shoot em up after 2 months of superheros.

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
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Sat Jun-29-13 12:13 PM

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88. "HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!! R.I.P.D. projected to have a $14 mill opening"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Heard a Universal rep say the studio heads expect that much opening weekend.

That's fucking low yo.

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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SoulHonky
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89. "Looks bad and is up against three other openers"
In response to Reply # 88


          

And I think Turbo, Red 2, and the Conjuring could all beat it. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't THAT bad but I don't see anyone whose interested in it.

----
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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
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104. "What's worse is it's budget is $130 million. Marinate on that..."
In response to Reply # 89


          

Judging from the preview it looks like it cost $80 million tops.

------------------------------------------
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Ray_Snill
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91. "prediction results so far:"
In response to Reply # 0
Sun Jun-30-13 02:59 PM by Ray_Snill

  

          

>1. Iron Man 3 (400 million): #1

so far $405 mill, dead on

>2. Man of Steel (375 million):

$248 mill, close.

>3. Star Trek: Into Darkness (315 million):

$220 mill ... not bad

>4. Monsters University (277 million):

$171 mill in second week, might get there

>5. Despicable Me 2 (263 million):

not opened yet

>6. The Hangover 3 (204 million):

$110 mill

>7. Fast and Furious 6 (170 million):

$233 mill, better than expected

>8. The Heat (136 million):

$40 mill first week

>9. Wolverine (127 million):

not opened yet

>10. World War Z (114 million):

$123 mill second week, still doing descent. might get there




<================================
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maternalbliss
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92. "RE: don't go nowhere near Frank's list, lol"
In response to Reply # 91


          

  

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Frank Longo
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93. "lol, I'm doing great with two exceptions, actually."
In response to Reply # 92


  

          

Thanks for the attention though!

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

  

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SoulHonky
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94. "I was about to say..."
In response to Reply # 93
Sun Jun-30-13 06:04 PM by SoulHonky

          

besdies After Earth, you're closer than me on Furious 6, Man of Steel, and Star Trek. The next big one is Pacific Rim, which is apparently tracking worst than Grown Ups 2.

If you want to see bad, check out the Wall St. guy. He got Gatsby but was pretty bad on others.

----
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maternalbliss
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96. "RE: you got 3 major fuck ups"
In response to Reply # 93


          

Great Gatsby, After Earth and White House Down. White House down is not gonna see anywhere near your prediction of 125 million.
I think you got another one coming with Turbo.

If Turbo turns out to be the hit i believe it to be then there is absolutely no doubt Bliss was more accurate than you.

I will admit I fucked up with World War Z. I also may have fucked up with Man of Steel. Bwood said this film would have some legs. I hope it can at least hit 350 million.


Since everybody got the Hangover wrong i ain't including that one.





  

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nipsey
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95. "My Results as of June 30th"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

1. Iron Man 3 (425 million)---------------ACTUAL = $405 million
2. Monsters University (325 million)--------ACTUAL = $171 million
3. Star Trek: Into Darkness (300 million)----ACTUAL = $220 million
4. Man of Steel (275 million)--------------ACTUAL = $248 million
5. Despicable Me 2 (275 million)----------ACTUAL = NOT OPEN YET
6. Lone Ranger ($250 million)------------ACTUAL = NOT OPEN YET
7. The Hangover 3 (225 million)----------ACTUAL = $110 million
8. Fast and Furious 6 (225 million)--------ACTUAL = $233 million
9. World War Z (169 million)-------------ACTUAL = $123 million
10. Wolverine (150 million)--------------ACTUAL = NOT OPEN YET
11. The Heat (140 million)--------------ACTUAL = $40 million

BONUS:

After Earth ($95 million)---------------ACTUAL = $57 million


I think I'm doing alright so far. I was a little bullish on IM3 and ST2. I was really bullish on H3. I was spot on for FF6 I'm thinking I'll get close with Monsters U. and The Heat.

____________________________________
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nipsey
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98. "Update as of July 7, 2013"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

My Picks

1. Iron Man 3 (425 million)---------------ACTUAL = $406 million
2. Monsters University (325 million)--------ACTUAL = $216 million
3. Star Trek: Into Darkness (300 million)----ACTUAL = $223 million
4. Man of Steel (275 million)--------------ACTUAL = $271 million
5. Despicable Me 2 (275 million)----------ACTUAL = $142 million
6. Lone Ranger ($250 million)------------ACTUAL = $49 million
7. The Hangover 3 (225 million)----------ACTUAL = $110 million
8. Fast and Furious 6 (225 million)--------ACTUAL = $235 million
9. World War Z (169 million)-------------ACTUAL = $158 million
10. Wolverine (150 million)--------------ACTUAL = NOT OPEN YET
11. The Heat (140 million)--------------ACTUAL = $86 million

BONUS:

After Earth ($95 million)---------------ACTUAL = $58 million

____________________________________
Podcast Now on iTunes and Google:
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Twitter: @nipsey @JTTOUPodcast

Last 3 things I watched:

The Changeling Season 1 (Apple+): C
OMITB Season 3 (Hulu): B-
Ahsoka Season 1 (Disney

  

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maternalbliss
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99. "RE: Update as of July 7, 2013"
In response to Reply # 98


          

Pacific Rim?
Thoughts
I myself am a little bit worried that my prediction for PR maybe too high. This film's opening is sandwiched between that juggernaut Despicale Me and the upcoming Turbo. Kids are gonna be running all over the theaters the next couple of weeks.


World War Z
What's the appeal? This has turned out to be a pretty big hit. Was the trailer really that good?

  

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Ink_Spot
Member since Mar 26th 2004
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100. "the power of Brad Pitt......dude is likable "
In response to Reply # 99


  

          

everyone who has seen it, or chic I saw it with, just said he was the reason they were watching it, and will watch a sequel.

  

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ZooTown74
Member since May 29th 2002
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101. "... and the movie happens to be good, which begets word-of-mouth"
In response to Reply # 100


  

          

Some of these cats couldn't WAIT to shit on then bury this movie, while I hoped for it to succeed

ZooTown wins again, bitchez

_______________________________________________________________________________________
Im not posting in PTP

  

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nipsey
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102. "Agreed"
In response to Reply # 101


  

          

I saw it Sunday and thought it was good. The buzz was really bad on this flick with all the re-shoots, but whatever went wrong, they were able to salvage it. I know the 3rd act was completely re-done and I think they did a decent job with it.

>Some of these cats couldn't WAIT to shit on then bury this
>movie, while I hoped for it to succeed
>

____________________________________
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Ahsoka Season 1 (Disney

  

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Frank Longo
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105. "If women like your action flick, it'll be a hit. Period."
In response to Reply # 101


  

          

You have a hunky movie star playing a family man with heart, and for the second half of the film you have a badass female character. Win.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
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nipsey
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103. "I completely forgot to include Pacific Rim in my list"
In response to Reply # 99


  

          

I forgot Elysium also. But if were to make my prediction for Pacific Rim two months ago, I would have said $120 million. But considering the good reviews coming out this week, I would change my prediction to $190 million as of July 8, 2013.

____________________________________
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Ahsoka Season 1 (Disney

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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106. "Lone Ranger looking at 190+ loss for Disney"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Looks like we have the winner for bomb of the summer.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Ray_Snill
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107. "update:"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

>1. Iron Man 3 (400 million): actual= $406 million

>2. Man of Steel (375 million): actual= $280 million

>3. Star Trek: Into Darkness (315 million): actual= $224 million

>4. Monsters University (277 million): actual= $237 million

>5. Despicable Me 2 (263 million): actual= $228 million

>6. The Hangover 3 (204 million): actual= $111 million

>7. Fast and Furious 6 (170 million): actual= $236 million

>8. The Heat (136 million): actual= $112 million
>
>9. Wolverine (127 million): not opened

>10. World War Z (114 million): actual = $176 million




<================================
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SoulHonky
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108. "Rough weekend for Ryan Reynolds"
In response to Reply # 0


          

RIPD might open to as little as 11 million and Turbo is coming in as one of the lower debuts for a Dreamworks Animation film at 24 million. And both films had a budget of around 130 million bucks.

On the bright side, it looks like he's taking a step back from blockbusters and is connected to some interesting directors (Atom Egoyan, Tarsem Singh, Boden/Fleck, and Marjane Satrapi).

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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mrshow
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109. "He's a good actor with a bad eye for mainsteam flicks"
In response to Reply # 108


          

I thought he was quite good in Safe House though.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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110. "Looking like Wolverine won't make the cut"
In response to Reply # 0


          

On target for a 67% drop in week 2. Kind of crazy that Now You See Me might hold onto that 10th spot.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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SoulHonky
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111. "Current Standings: Congrats Frank!"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I think I grabbed the lists of the people who made exact guesses (Sorry MB), I took 1 point for every dollar away from the actual box office amount and also added 25 points for every movie that you missed in your Top 10. Low score wins.

Frank Longo: 508 + 75 = 583
Entertainment Weekly: 502 + 100 = 602
SouHonky: 560 + 50 = 610
NIPSEY: 586 + 50 = 636
Doug Creutz (Wall Street Analyst): 577 + 75 = 652

- About half of Frank's points came from After Earth and The Hangover.
- Almost half of Nipsey's points came from The Lone Ranger and The Hangover.
- I was hit or miss. Four movies within 20; Five films I missed by 80 or more.
- Everyone whiffed on The Hangover being out and The Conjuring being in (Although Wolverine might be able to catch it.)
- Everyone had at least one more whiff (WWZ and Gatsby being the main culprits.)

The Champ so far though is Ray Suber over at Box Office Mojo. He's killing all of us with 264 + 75 = 339 and was within 20 million on 5 movies (Spot on on The Heat and 1 million off of Man of Steel.)

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Fri Aug-23-13 06:41 PM

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112. "*pages whoever that was that was mocking how awful my picks were*"
In response to Reply # 111


  

          

lol

Thanks for keeping up with this. This is always fun.

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My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
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nipsey
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Tue Aug-27-13 10:56 PM

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113. "Thanks for putting together the results"
In response to Reply # 111


  

          

I was really off on stuff. Much of it was because I forgot certain movies were coming out and I was scrambling adding them to my list.

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Thu Aug-29-13 08:58 PM

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114. "RE:oh hell naw "
In response to Reply # 0
Thu Aug-29-13 09:06 PM by maternalbliss

          

Top 12 Summer box office according to boxofficemojo

1. Iron Man 3, 408 million
2. DM2, 351 million
3. Man of Steel, 290 million
4. Monsters University, 261 million
5. Fast and furious 6, 238 million
6. Star Trek into darkness, 227 million
7. WWZ, 198 million
8. The Heat, 156 million
9. The Great Gatsby, 144 million
10. TheGConjuring, 132 million
11. Grown Ups 2, 129 million
12. Wolverine, 125 million

Since you did not include me i'm gonna do my list myself.

1. Man of Steel, 400+ million
2. Iron Man 3, 400+ million
3. Despicable Me 2 280-300 million
4. Monster's University 250million
5. Fast and Furious 6 235 million
6. Star Trek, 225 million
7. Wolverine, 150-160 million
8. The heat, 145-155 million
9/10. Turbo tie Great Gatsby 140 million
11. Pacific Rim, 135million
12/13/14, I see these grossing about 120-130 million
The hanover, The Lone Ranger, Elysium
15. The smurfs 115 million
16. Grown ups 2 105 million


My revised list posted June 3.



  

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Frank Longo
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Fri Aug-30-13 01:25 AM

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117. "lmao @ a list revised after several had been released."
In response to Reply # 114


  

          

I'm stunned that it's more accurate that predictions made before the films were released! STUNNED, I tell you!

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
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Fri Aug-30-13 08:16 AM

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118. "RE: only 4 of the top 12 had been released"
In response to Reply # 117


          

that's not a big deal.

Even tho i beat you i still think i sucked,lol, i will tell you why later.

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Fri Aug-30-13 08:40 AM

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119. "I'm on pins and needles."
In response to Reply # 118


  

          

>that's not a big deal.
>
>Even tho i beat you i still think i sucked,lol, i will
>tell you why later.

I'm glad one third isn't that big a deal.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Thu Aug-29-13 09:51 PM

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115. "RE: OK i am doing the numbers"
In response to Reply # 0


          

1.8
2. 110
3. 51
4. 11
5.3
6. 2
7. 25
8.1
9.4
10. 25
11. 24
12. 35

My total is 299. You cheating ass! Let's say i use my original prediction for Gatsby which was 115 million that would add 29 points. OK let's add my prediction for WWZ which i think was 80=90 million. Even if you added that i still would not hit 500.

YOU KNOW YOU FUCKING WRONG MAN!

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Sun Sep-01-13 05:15 PM

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120. "Going by your original list..."
In response to Reply # 115
Sun Sep-01-13 05:17 PM by SoulHonky

          

Doing this quickly...

Your original list
1. Man of Steel, 375 million
2. Iron Man 3, 350 million
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Star rek
5. Monster's University
6. Fast and Furious 6
7. Hangover 3
8. Wolverine
9. Pacific Rim
10. Turbo tie with The Heat
I see these grossing about 140-150 million
---

Man of Steel, Iron Man, and the Heat have you at 150 - 160 points.

Giving you The Heat at 10 and putting Turbo at 11, means 75 points for misses. I'll also go with 150 as your Pacific Rim bet (putting it above the high end of the movies you ranked below it), and that's another 50 points.

So, four movies in and you're at 275 - 285.

Adding your redux numbers of the films that hadn't been released yet, (Despicable Me - 54, Monsters U - 13, Wolverine - 23) is another 80 million so you'd be at 355 - 365 with Star Trek, Furious 6, and Hangover 3 still to go.

If we eliminate those last three from the lists, you and I would be neck-and-neck for first. Frank and Nipsey would still be in trouble because they had the big whiffs in After Earth and Lone Ranger.
---
As for your revamped list:

1. Man of Steel, 400+ million: 110 points
2. Iron Man 3, 400+ million: 8 points*
3. Despicable Me 2 280-300 million: 54 - 74 points
4. Monster's University 250million: 13 points
5. Fast and Furious 6 235 million: 3 points*
6. Star Trek, 225 million: 3 points*
7. Wolverine, 150-160 million: 23 - 33 points
8. The heat, 145-155 million: 2 - 12 points
9/10. Turbo 140 million: 61 points
Great Gatsby 140 million: 4 points*

After 50 points for two misses, that ends up being 331 - 371 points.
You can't downplay the importance of almost half of the movies on the list having already come out since those four films added up to only 18 points in box office (and eliminated a 25 point penalty for Hangover 3) whereas the films that hadn't come out amounted for 263 points (and two whiffs in Turbo and Wolverine.)

You had strong summer predictions, for sure. But you yourself admitted your June prediction list was kind of cheating and you didn't make specific predictions in your initial list so it was unfair IMO to include you in the rankings.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Sun Sep-01-13 09:21 PM

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121. "RE: this is getting too complicated"
In response to Reply # 120


          

If you take away the points for the 4 films released before June 3 my score is 282 and Longo's is 269.

He won i'll accept that he won. Shit.

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Thu Aug-29-13 11:14 PM

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116. "RE: frank's list"
In response to Reply # 0
Thu Aug-29-13 11:37 PM by maternalbliss

          

1. 22
2. 51
3. 35
4.31
5. 38
6. 53
7. 68
8. 19
9. 25
10. 25
11. 25
12. 15

total 407 vs bliss 299

Guess what. If i use my actual prediction for WWZ( instead of 25 points for a miss) and my original prediction for Gatsby we are actually tied,lol.

Bliss likes Math.

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Sun Sep-01-13 10:08 PM

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122. "RE: What really happened this summer?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Things got off to a robust start and by the time Wolverine came along the box office took a nose dive.

Were the films that bad? Did folks run out of money because they had to do back to school shopping?
Turbo, Smurfs and Planes i thought they would all have a bigger audience. Shit them Smurfs was a big hit the first time around. Turbo was not terrible i liked it.

There are two things i will definitely be looking for next year,
The sleeper hit
The Conjuring(have not seen it) gosh this film just came outta nowhere and surprised everybody.

and next year i gotta look for the film that critics say will flop but won't.
World War Z
This family friendly film was a hit but i thought it was boring as hell.

So many action films flopped Elysium, Lone Ranger, After Earth, White House Down, Pacific Rim. Wolverine did fairly well. Next time around i will definitely lower my numbers in this genre.

Still got a few summer flicks to review. I can't lie i think this year has been kinda meh when it comes to the movies.

  

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chi_soul
Member since Aug 18th 2002
2449 posts
Tue Sep-03-13 12:56 AM

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123. "the action films you named all had political messages"
In response to Reply # 122


  

          

subtly inserted in them, except pacific rim maybe, i didnt see that shit. That being said, i know it's just a coincidence that they all got bad reviews, when i know lone ranger and after earth were good, IMO.


< i can't understand for the life of me why niggas always lookin at my shoulders? Get in the gym!

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Wed Sep-11-13 09:53 PM

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125. "Elysium is not a flop. Not a hit, but not a flop either."
In response to Reply # 122


          

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Wed Sep-11-13 11:15 PM

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126. "RE: i hate saying this but Damon is not a draw"
In response to Reply # 125


          

The hollywood machine has tried to make him into an iconic actor like Hanks, Will Smith, DiCaprio, Harrison Ford, Tom Cruize and Depp but they failed.

He is a decent actor tho but it looks like he is gonna need another franchise,lol.

Elysium had a budget of 115 million and has made 85million domestically. It has made 200million worldwide so it did break even.
I agree it is not a colossal failure Like Happy Feet 2. Damon has had quite a few box office bombs.

Elysium, that shit was a disaster. Shit it's late i will finish talking about this dumb ass film tomorrow.

  

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bwood
Member since Apr 03rd 2006
8614 posts
Thu Sep-12-13 07:45 AM

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127. "Um, Matt Damon still brings people in."
In response to Reply # 126
Thu Sep-12-13 07:46 AM by bwood

          

Granted the last big movie he was in was We Bought A Zoo and that flopped cause Cameron Crowe can't make a good movie anymore. Promised Land was an indie movie about fracking so...

Elysium is not a bad movie. It's not the best shit in the world, but it's not bad at all.

------------------------------------------
America from 9:00 on: https://youtu.be/GUwLCQU10KQ

  

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maternalbliss
Member since Jul 05th 2005
2553 posts
Wed Sep-11-13 09:19 PM

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124. "RE: Honorable Mention: We're the Millers"
In response to Reply # 0
Wed Sep-11-13 09:23 PM by maternalbliss

          

Should have bet on this instead of that dreadful Elysium.

This is the only flick released in August or September that has made over 100 million. It may actually outgross Wolverine,
Congradulations Jen.

Angelina may have stole her man but Jennifer got the successful career. Jen does her lane and she is consistent. She moved from tv to the big screen and did it well. She does deserve some respect.

She is past 40 and dudes are going to see her shake her ass on screen,lol. Whatever she is doing it obviously is working. She will not be disappearing anytime soon.
Does anyone here think she will ever take a risk and try a dramatic part?

  

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