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Forum namePass The Popcorn
Topic subjectGoing by your original list...
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=6&topic_id=647338&mesg_id=659552
659552, Going by your original list...
Posted by SoulHonky, Sun Sep-01-13 05:15 PM
Doing this quickly...

Your original list
1. Man of Steel, 375 million
2. Iron Man 3, 350 million
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Star rek
5. Monster's University
6. Fast and Furious 6
7. Hangover 3
8. Wolverine
9. Pacific Rim
10. Turbo tie with The Heat
I see these grossing about 140-150 million
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Man of Steel, Iron Man, and the Heat have you at 150 - 160 points.

Giving you The Heat at 10 and putting Turbo at 11, means 75 points for misses. I'll also go with 150 as your Pacific Rim bet (putting it above the high end of the movies you ranked below it), and that's another 50 points.

So, four movies in and you're at 275 - 285.

Adding your redux numbers of the films that hadn't been released yet, (Despicable Me - 54, Monsters U - 13, Wolverine - 23) is another 80 million so you'd be at 355 - 365 with Star Trek, Furious 6, and Hangover 3 still to go.

If we eliminate those last three from the lists, you and I would be neck-and-neck for first. Frank and Nipsey would still be in trouble because they had the big whiffs in After Earth and Lone Ranger.
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As for your revamped list:

1. Man of Steel, 400+ million: 110 points
2. Iron Man 3, 400+ million: 8 points*
3. Despicable Me 2 280-300 million: 54 - 74 points
4. Monster's University 250million: 13 points
5. Fast and Furious 6 235 million: 3 points*
6. Star Trek, 225 million: 3 points*
7. Wolverine, 150-160 million: 23 - 33 points
8. The heat, 145-155 million: 2 - 12 points
9/10. Turbo 140 million: 61 points
Great Gatsby 140 million: 4 points*

After 50 points for two misses, that ends up being 331 - 371 points.
You can't downplay the importance of almost half of the movies on the list having already come out since those four films added up to only 18 points in box office (and eliminated a 25 point penalty for Hangover 3) whereas the films that hadn't come out amounted for 263 points (and two whiffs in Turbo and Wolverine.)

You had strong summer predictions, for sure. But you yourself admitted your June prediction list was kind of cheating and you didn't make specific predictions in your initial list so it was unfair IMO to include you in the rankings.