You really think After Earth is going to be the 2nd biggest movie of Will's career? (And 4th biggest domestic after ID4, Men in Black, and I Am Legend)

I could see it making 170 million domestic (Karate Kid, MIB 3 money) but I'd be stunned if it broke 250 and think it's more likely to make closer to 100 million.

Maybe I'm underestimating the draw of Jaden but I just don't think many people are looking forward to After Earth (can't imagine it'll draw many women) and I think you guys are underestimating the impact that opening a week after Hangover III and Fast and Furious is going to have. It does have a more open 2nd weekend but then it's pretty much over as Man of Steel (and This is The End) open the following weekend.