AP Top Ten
1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Purdue
4. Michigan State
5. Marquette
6. UConn
7. Houston
8. Creighton
9. Tennessee
10. Florida Atlantic

season started this past Tuesday with tune-up games, but there are a couple interesting match-ups Friday:

(2) Duke vs. (12) Arizona
Wisconsin vs. (9) Tennessee
Ohio State vs. (15) Texas A&M

--------

in my opinion this is the best team since the Grant Williams-Admiral Schofield-Lamonte Turner squad of 2018-2019 that lost to Carsen Edwards and Purdue in OT

defense will be elite, they are going to lack size in the frontcourt but they will also have several players who can rotate to different spots and create mismatch lineups against teams who want to go big

I think people assume Olivier Nkamhoua (transfer to Michigan) will be a huge loss but he was never consistent at Tennessee; people may remember him burying Duke in the Sweet 16 but the other two games of the tournament he shot like 28%

Dalton Knecht is the big arrival via Northern Colorado, if he lives up to his offensive potential this team will have a go-to they were missing when JJJ was bricking fadeaway 15-footers and Vescovi loses his shot

Zakai Zeigler already back on the court after tearing his ACL only nine months ago

the real question is if Barnes can adjust his mindset so this team can get to where they need to offensively -- grinding 60-52 games is fine in conference play, but you need to develop ways to score in crucial situations so you can do so in the NCAA tournament

he has a bad tendency to bury players with offensive potential on the bench because of defensive mistakes, and that doesn't bite him in the regular season, but it does when he needs a bucket and four of the guys out there cannot create their own shot

--------

For me, picking a Rick Barnes team to make the Final Four is a "I'd rather miss out and be wrong than bet on it and kick myself later when they lose due to the inevitable >35% shooting night" proposition. I've no doubt the team will be elite defensively-- might be the best in the country. And I'd pick them to win the SEC, in the same way that it's hard to pick against UVA-- when your team is that good defensively, your floor is going to be absurdly high.

It'll be interesting to see what Barnes does this year.

(And Nkahmhoua looked great in that first game with Michigan, fwiw. Might be just the sort of dude they needed since the last two years of the Hunter Dickinson era did *not* go well for them.)

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

but then MSU lost to James Madison so we'll hold off

>(And Nkahmhoua looked great in that first game with Michigan,
>fwiw. Might be just the sort of dude they needed since the
>last two years of the Hunter Dickinson era did *not* go well
>for them.)

wish him the best outside any games against Tennessee; Barnes stuck with him for a long time even when he was going through bad, bad spells so I know whatever consistency he finds at Michigan he was never going to achieve staying here

--------

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

I don't know what it is, but nothing annoys me more than when coaches who get a ton of 4 star and up talent pretend their program is "blue collar."

Meanwhile, anyone who watched that JMU game saw an absolute lack of effort by any MSU player not named Tyson Walker. They got smushed on the boards while Izzo kept his 6'11 top recruit on the bench all game. And then Izzo promptly threw his seniors under the bus at the press conference after. All very gritty, blue collar stuff!

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

This Duke team should be tailor made to run... but Arizona absolutely wants to run. Duke played slow last year and weirdly played slow vs. Dartmouth to start the year-- maybe they'll try to grind the game down? That's certainly been an achilles heel for Arizona under Lloyd.

The Ballo vs. Filipowski matchup is also *very* intriguing. Not convinced Duke can stop Ballo down low, assuming Ballo wants to try to dominate offensively (not always the case for Ballo). Then again, Flip can stretch Ballo out of the paint with Duke's five-out offense. Does Arizona want to try to switch everything on the perimeter against this potent Duke offense? Will they be content to just let Flip shoot open 3s?

And then, of course, there's Caleb Love. Outside of the Final Four game against Duke, his last four games in a UNC uniform against Duke... have not been efficient, to say the least. Tommy Lloyd is, imo, a significant coaching upgrade from Hubert Davis, as Lloyd actually runs an offense. Perhaps that's just the thing Love needed to unlock his full potential. I also don't really know who Duke uses on who defensively in the backcourt. I'd put Proctor on Love, as that worked beautifully for Duke last year... but I don't know that I trust Roach to defend Boswell?

Duke also needs Mark Mitchell to be healthy. He missed the last game-- and we saw last year how much Duke misses Mitchell's defensive physicality and versatility when he's out. Without him, I'd lean Arizona. With him, I'd lean Duke-- but this game will shift quickly either way depending on which big man gets in foul trouble first and whether Duke can make its 3s.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Duke did not slow the game down.

Flip acquitted himself just fine with Ballo, but whenever Flip was off the floor, Duke got MASSACRED on the glass. In the first half, we were -14 on the boards. Ryan Young was unplayable, yet he's the first big off the bench. Baffling misstep by Scheyer.

Love had a really bad game offensively, but he made the heave at the end of the first half and made his FTs down the stretch when they needed them. Also played good defense. Should be a good fit for him there.

Mitchell did *not* look like himself, I thought, and the shot looked somehow even more wonky. That's definitely a development to track for Duke, because if teams sag off him defensively, it's... going to change a lot for Duke. He just needs to make, like, 33% from 3. But tonight, it looked roooough.

Ultimately, I think the non-Flip minutes of the first half were too much for Duke to come back from. We won the second half, but you can't go down 8 at the half to a team that will be in contention for a 1 seed.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Duke will shoot better but they won't go far if they keep rebounding like that

--------

Going -14 on the boards in the first half is, like, unforgivable, lol. Was heartened that we were +2 on the glass in the second half-- unsurprisingly, we caught up and had a chance to win the game as a result. (Not a coincidence that Duke didn't play Young at *all* during the run back into the game.)

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

....and they got the nerve to have this game on Peacock, an additional app I have to download and pay for to watch this sorry bunch of losers led by a loser coach and his loser assistants


pass.


i need to find a new team to bandwagon until my alma mater is freed from the clutches of this useless shithead from kentucky

maybe uconn since my girl went there,

-------------------
I wanna go to where the martyrs went
the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...

finally a guy you can throw the ball to in the closeout minutes and tell him to just get a basket

nice double-digit road win at Wisconsin

--------

Much better work from Duke tonight. Still some nitpicks, especially in regards to turnovers, but we prevented MSU from getting out in transition, we out rebounded them, and, outside of an electric couple minute stretch in the 2nd half, we mostly played good defense against Tyson Walker-- and once that stretch happened, Scheyer threw double teams at him and dared other guys to beat us, and that was that.

MSU settling for sooooo many jumpshots. Not exactly gritty, blue collar basketball!

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Big boy ball

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

That was a very Tennessee-style game, and Purdue still won. Loyer balled out.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

not much flow at any point due to the 100 foul calls

Tennessee had one of their bad shooting nights, Knecht was deferring and had a few turnovers but he should have played more

I think they need to dial back Ziegler some, he is trying to do too much on offense

JJJ, Vescovi and Ziegler a combined 2-14 from three (Gainey was shooting Tennessee out of the game but at least he came back to make 3 in a row), and most of them were WIDE open looks...got to hit a few more of those to win

--------

Loved how everyone rebounded, especially with Zach sitting so much.

I’m most Disappointed that we didn’t intentionally address outside shooting this off-season. Loyer was great, (was terrible against Zaga) but the only gap to a title run is 3pt shooting, we’re winning now still, but it we’ll take us down in March.

Marquette we’ll be really tough, I really like that squad. Shaka is on his VCU shit with better talent, whooped Kansas who he beat towards his FF, and he beat us earlier in that same run. Can’t wait, love how stacked our schedule is. Still have Alabama And Arizona to come. Can’t say we’re not testing ourselves. Baring injury, the B1G we’ll be easy enough

Also, Hunter Dickinson is a loser, Michigan didn’t win with him, And I’ll go out on a limb- Kansas ain’t winning it all this year, certainly won’t get an ROI They still think is acceptable on the 1m+ they’re spending on him

Marquette was in the damn zone-- they missed a lot of open 3s, they could've won by a good deal more. Kansas needs some shooting.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

He’s so good, so tough… line his Maturation as a leader this leader.

I really hope that he has a clause in his NIL that ensures he’s the highest paid player - the thought that Hunter Dickinson is possibly making more makes me laugh, but also pisses me off

March is all that matters for this program, but I can’t help it, I love this version Of Purdue bball. Let’s sleep walk to another conference title and hot we are fully ready for March.

But, Bama and Zona first, which will be great games too

ahead of Purdue and tied with Kansas after a half, then the offense goes Antarctic for the final 10 minutes of each game

have to run better offense and not just think these guys are going to three-point shoot their way back into a rhythm

too many missed layups, not enough fastbreak points (where is the fast break? for a team that forces a lot of turnovers the fastbreak was completely missing in Hawaii) and rebounding were all major issues

Barnes needs to really dial in a better offense and not be happy to get rock fight wins in SEC play, otherwise this team will not reach their potential

--------

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

You can lose to Penn if they aren't falling, you can beat the shit out of teams if they are.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

>You can lose to Penn if they aren't falling, you can beat the
>shit out of teams if they are.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

in basketball AND football.

its rarely a close game..

it's always lopsided.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

maybe this team is different.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

first half was an absolute disgrace for a team starting three fifth-year seniors.

* rebounding continues to be an issue -- I get they lack size, but the lack of effort boxing out by the guards and wings is inexcusable. too much ball watching and soft-as-shit attempts at securing the rebound.

* no offensive continuity -- team was bailed out by Knecht but the lazily swinging the ball around, overreliance on trying to get Aidoo involved, complete non-threat of Zakai, Meshack or Gainey hitting perimeter shots, and inability of anybody besides DK being able to win off the dribble results in a lot of shitty threes and fadeaway long jumpers.

* complete lack of transition game -- those missed jumpers turned into a bunch of easy fast break points for Carolina and Tennessee is not an elite defense when they get in a running match; conversely nobody besides Knecht wants to attack the fucking rim with numbers, at one point Meshack had an open lane and picked up his dribble 5 feet short to throw a YMCA level bricked bunny.

* the experienced guys are letting the team down -- Barnes may need to start playing different people. Vescovi looked horrific, never seen him give such shitty effort on both sides of the ball; his pump-fake, drive to nowhere, then kickout to a covered teammate with 1 second of the shot clock is beyond old. Zakai I think will get back into the flow on offense and at least he is playing defense still, but right now he's a black hole offensively. Meshack played like he didn't even want to be there. sloppy turnovers by all the main ball-handlers, lazy shit. JJJ did ball out though.

* Gainey is looking like mirage -- scarily reminding all Tennessee fans of Tyreke Key from last year, an older transfer who was going to be a combo guard and stretch the defense. well he certainly has shot it -- shot the Vols out of three straight big games. 7-for-28 from three since Hawaii, with a lot of great looks. I get that shooters go through slumps but his defense was a fucking embarrassment tonight, jumping all over the place, repeatedly scorched off the dribble, couldn't box out a piece of toilet paper and had some horrible fouls like shoving Barcot in the back. he is killing the team right now.

Knecht rolling his ankle might be a blessing, because Barnes will have to tear this team back down to the studs to build them back up. they need to get back to their identity and the leaders need to light some fires under thier own asses and everyone else's.

--------

Came weirdly close to fighting back at the very end down something like 16 with 4 minutes left. It's almost as if... Duke should have been pressing more throughout the game. Novel concept!

I just vehemently disagree with what Jon's been doing with this roster. We should be running, we should be pressing, we should be getting transition looks, we should be speeding teams up and overwhelming them with bodies. We should *not* be trying to play half court offense, and we should *not* be playing this conservative-ass switch everything but can't really, don't fight for turnovers ass defense. We showed flashes of changing things up and mucking up the game tonight... but Duke doesn't have too many more big opportunities, because the ACC mostly stinks. Can't leave games like this on the table.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Frank, you don’t seem confident in Jon.


>I just vehemently disagree with what Jon's been doing with
>this roster. We should be running, we should be pressing, we
>should be getting transition looks, we should be speeding
>teams up and overwhelming them with bodies. We should *not* be
>trying to play half court offense, and we should *not* be
>playing this conservative-ass switch everything but can't
>really, don't fight for turnovers ass defense. We showed
>flashes of changing things up and mucking up the game
>tonight... but Duke doesn't have too many more big
>opportunities, because the ACC mostly stinks. Can't leave
>games like this on the table.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

He certainly adjusted nicely last year in a way that made me confident... but the start to this season has once again been slow. Certainly hoping he adjusts again, but it's obviously frustrating watching a team returning 4 starters play with such low energy-- and I think Scheyer's faith in this team outperforming teams in the half court is misplaced. We just don't have the luxury of losing these big OOC games because the conference is so mediocre right now.

I realize that outcoaching guys like Lloyd and Musselman who are 15-20+ years older than you and are two of the best in the game is a tall ask... but you've gotta win, man. This isn't the 80s where Duke could allow K to suck for a few years while he gets his feet under him. You can't waste rosters with this much talent. And if you end up with something like a 3 or 4 seed end of the day, it makes going on a Final Four run statistically far less likely than if you're a 1 or a 2.

So yeah. Certainly a frustrating stretch between this and the football. But hey, it could be worse. We could be 4-3 with losses to Davidson and UAB.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

can't believe I'm going to say anything positive about Duke, but Coach K seemingly played all his big non conference games at neutral sites

>much talent. And if you end up with something like a 3 or 4
>seed end of the day, it makes going on a Final Four run
>statistically far less likely than if you're a 1 or a 2.

is that because of the seed or the fact that 1/2s are statistically just better than 3/4s

--------

>is that because of the seed or the fact that 1/2s are statistically just better than 3/4s

1s and 2s are definitely on average better than 3s and 4s, but it's not just the team itself, it's the path. Especially in the first round, where the difference between a 15/16 seed and a 13/14 seed is fairly substantial.

PROBABILITY OF ADVANCEMENT TO SECOND ROUND:
1 seed: 99.3%
2 seed: 93.2%
3 seed: 85.1%
4 seed: 79.1%

I'd imagine on average that the worst 1 seed and the best 2 seed every year aren't very different in terms of how good they are, so at that point, the path plays a pretty substantial role. It's why the fact that the selection committee more or less doesn't factor conference tournament results into their seeding is *baffling* to me, because the path you set a team on has such an impact on potential end result.

But also you're right that generally you'd expect the best teams to perform best. And I think, generally speaking, if you look at KenPom pre-tournament to see which teams look overseeded or underseeded in terms of their adjusted efficiency margin on the season? The overseeded ones do tend to drop earlier and the underseeded ones are more likely to outplay their expected win total. So it's a chicken and egg thing, for sure.

And fwiw, Scheyer didn't schedule this game-- it was part of the Challenge, though K also rarely got disadvantageous road games in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, so maybe Scheyer didn't try to sway the selection in these challenges in his favor like K almost certainly did, lol. Scheyer did schedule a true road game at Arizona next year, which'll be brutal. He's said publicly he wants more true road games OOC. There's certainly a very real chance that what happened to Duke last night was just our usual first-road-game terrible bullshit play-- it just so happened that it happened in November instead of January this time around, lol.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide