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Subject: "Trump will lose in a landslide (CNN swipe)" Previous topic | Next topic
Bambino Grande
Member since Mar 14th 2019
192 posts
Fri May-22-20 08:50 AM

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"Trump will lose in a landslide (CNN swipe)"


          



#prayerhandsemoji


Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

New York (CNN Business) The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.
The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.
"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."
The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).

Ohio, Missouri could flip to Democrats

The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation.
"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the Oxford Economics report said.
A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.
"We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote," the report said.
Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year. It would have correctly predicted Trump's upset electoral college victory as well as seven of the nine prior elections since 1980.

Is it too early to predict the election?

Still, models based on economic trends are not political crystal balls. And they have no track record of predicting elections during pandemics.
"Traditional models work in normal times. But we're not in normal times right now," said Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments.
The election is still six months away. And the past six months show how much the world can change in that period of time. No one was predicting a 20% unemployment or a 40% collapse in GDP six months ago. Now, those are the consensus projections.

If the election were held today, Valliere said, former Vice President Joe Biden would probably win. But the next six months will give Trump time to reframe the debate around Biden and pin the blame for the pandemic on China.
"No one can go negative like Donald Trump," Valliere said.
Indeed, Oxford Economics said that its models have "inherent limitations," including the fact that they exclude noneconomic factors such as a candidate's agenda or likeability.
Betting odds favor Trump
More importantly, the models don't account for potential shifts in the pandemic. And this election may be a referendum on Trump's handling of the crisis.
"If new infections really pick up, people will conclude Trump opened the country too soon," said Valliere. "But if new infections drop, Trump will get some credit."
Another wildcard is how the pandemic impacts voter turnout. Strong turnout for Democrats could cause Trump to lose Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia, Oxford Economics said.
But weak Democratic turnout, along with a sharper economic recovery, could give Trump a "razor-thin" electoral college victory, the report said.

There are other signs that Trump should not be counted out in November.

Users on PredictIt, a prediction platform, give Trump a 50% chance of winning reelection. That's up from 45% in mid-March.
The betting odds also solidly favor Trump, according to an average compiled by RealClearPolitics.
Recessions hurt incumbents
Still, it's clear that some battleground states are hurting very badly right now.
For instance, more than one-quarter of the workforces of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada filed initial unemployment claims between March 14 and May 9. In Ohio, a bellwether state during presidential elections, 20% of the workforce has filed initial unemployment claims over that span.
"Every incumbent president facing a recession in the lead-up to reelection has lost," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.

But the key will be whether voters feel that the economy is back on the right track, with unemployment falling sharply and GDP rapidly recovery.
"The real debate is what does the economy look like on Election Day?" said Mills. "Will the country have gotten past the worst of Covid-19 and the worst of the economic shock?"
No one can answer those questions with certainty right now.
Tax hikes on the horizon?
The election uncertainty could pose a risk to the stock market, which has spiked since late March on hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery and in response to massive stimulus from the federal government.
Wall Street doesn't want to see the pro-business elements of the Trump agenda disappear. Although investors don't love Trump's trade wars, his corporate tax cuts boosted S&P 500 earnings and set off a bonanza of share buybacks. Trump's regulatory rollbacks and spending hikes have also helped lift stocks.
Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 is still standing nearly 40% above where it was prior to Trump's election.
If Biden wins the White House -- and the Senate flips to Democrats -- investors will be worry about tax hikes on companies and the rich, new restrictions on oil and gas production and increased financial regulation.
"In almost every area where Trump has undone former President Obama's legacy," analysts at Eurasia Group warned in a report on Tuesday. "A Biden presidency would try and restore the policy positions of the Obama administration and in most cases go beyond it."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=fbCNN&utm_term=link&utm_content=2020-05-20T18%3A44%3A04&fbclid=IwAR3rGccDzN0jFxGakBUQHrp7aEqR3LZevtgYnWx_olwMMVOyv3WEPMBPZYY&fbclid=IwAR2xKrE5C5ssUfV4MSjwurjAwd4cBjcPduLvY9i_muRxe7jKrjC6yca85VA

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
that’s what they said the last time
May 22nd 2020
1
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
May 22nd 2020
2
dude already trying to set the "it's rigged" table with mail voting
May 22nd 2020
3
lol.
May 22nd 2020
4
He should but I’m not confident until it’s over
May 22nd 2020
5
not when Joe Biden is out here making the rules about who is Black...
May 22nd 2020
6
they really need to keep him away from the camera forever lol.
May 22nd 2020
10
Joe could stand on 5th Avenue and shoot himself in the foot...
May 22nd 2020
12
      LOL.
May 22nd 2020
13
      Lol
May 23rd 2020
35
LANDSLIDE (c)
May 22nd 2020
7
yeah this is gonna be a blowout
May 22nd 2020
8
Dems gotta put Uncle Joe back on ice til the DNC
May 22nd 2020
9
don't we got the tech to re-wire this dude?
May 22nd 2020
14
all biden has to do is make this election a referendum on trump.
May 22nd 2020
11
Exactly. Dude needs to do nothing but prepared speeches once a month...
May 22nd 2020
16
      im just going to sleep til november and hope that everything works out.
May 22nd 2020
17
CNN is telling people to stay home and not vote w/this headline...
May 22nd 2020
15
^^^Sees it^^^^
May 22nd 2020
21
btw bidens campaign is being run by the woman who ran the beto campaign.
May 22nd 2020
18
Swear sometimes I think it’s all rigged
May 22nd 2020
19
      she was the battleground states director for obama in 08
May 22nd 2020
20
sidenote: bidens approach to public option vs medicare for all
May 22nd 2020
22
probably depends on who his corporate sponsors are...
May 22nd 2020
23
      i mean...obama took just as much big pharma money as anyone
May 22nd 2020
28
           i think obama dropped it because it wasn't passing
May 22nd 2020
30
                yeah thafs what happened.
May 22nd 2020
31
I wish...
May 22nd 2020
24
Sidenote: How impactful are celebrity endorsements of a candidate?
May 22nd 2020
25
this is why conservatives constantly tell celebs to shut up
May 22nd 2020
26
      This, remember that Denzel interview that got brought up
May 22nd 2020
27
           yup.
May 22nd 2020
32
no.
May 22nd 2020
29
barack and michelle need to start campaigning to black people *now*.
May 22nd 2020
33
are you black? like are you an african-american man?
May 24th 2020
36
      what a silly take.
May 24th 2020
37
           got it
May 24th 2020
39
                He didn't answer the question...
May 24th 2020
40
Trump deemed churches essential.
May 22nd 2020
34
Biden doing his best to throw away a W
May 24th 2020
38
CA 25 got me worried. If we have to go to all mail in voting
May 24th 2020
41

kinetic94761180
Member since Jul 05th 2002
17256 posts
Fri May-22-20 08:53 AM

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1. "that’s what they said the last time"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

_____________
Rjcc is code for "bitch-ass troll"

DROkayplayer™

  

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ThaTruth
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Fri May-22-20 09:13 AM

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2. "^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^"
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

  

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liveguy
Member since Jan 01st 2004
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Fri May-22-20 09:35 AM

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3. "dude already trying to set the "it's rigged" table with mail voting"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

We see through all that boo boo like it's ghost shit... (c) Quelle Chris

| http://liveguy.bandcamp.com |
| www.soundcloud.com/liveguy |
| www.twitter.com/liveguy |
| www.instagram.com/theREALliveguy |
| XBOX ONE GT: theREALliveguy |

  

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FLUIDJ
Member since Sep 18th 2002
42338 posts
Fri May-22-20 09:44 AM

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4. "lol. "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
65394 posts
Fri May-22-20 09:58 AM

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5. "He should but I’m not confident until it’s over"
In response to Reply # 0


          

They are going to do everything they can to rig this election.

Everything points towards not winning but it’s America and his admin is some fucking gangsters.

shut up already, damn

  

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PROMO
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Fri May-22-20 10:05 AM

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6. "not when Joe Biden is out here making the rules about who is Black..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

and who isn't.

FFS.

STAND OUT HAND OUTS: http://basquiatwhenipaint.tumblr.com

TWEET ME: @PROMO206

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 10:43 AM

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10. "they really need to keep him away from the camera forever lol."
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

not just that statement but theres no reason to be so unprepared for the other questions in that interview.

dude really needs to learn how to give the scripted mundane pc answers that may be boring and uninspiring but keep him out of the headlines for the wrong reasons.

trump is doing everything in his power to hand biden the election. and biden is doing everything in his power to hand it right back.

------

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
65394 posts
Fri May-22-20 10:59 AM

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12. "Joe could stand on 5th Avenue and shoot himself in the foot..."
In response to Reply # 6


          

and not lose a vote.

shut up already, damn

  

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PROMO
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Fri May-22-20 11:00 AM

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13. "LOL."
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

STAND OUT HAND OUTS: http://basquiatwhenipaint.tumblr.com

TWEET ME: @PROMO206

  

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blkprinceMD05
Member since Nov 29th 2004
40935 posts
Sat May-23-20 10:03 PM

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35. "Lol"
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

prototype

stand ur ground, believe in urself,
believe in love, prepare urself for love, remove the negativity from ur life, and accept the love u kno u deserve

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
14742 posts
Fri May-22-20 10:24 AM

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7. "LANDSLIDE (c)"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

lol

If I had to put money down right today, I'd say Trump is winning in November. He's got the incumbent advantage and a huge machine behind him

_______________________________________
You ain't the only one whose got problems. You ain't the only one who knows pain. Get up off your ass and just solve them. You still got a chance to try to change, try the shit again.
Devin tha Dude

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
79004 posts
Fri May-22-20 10:32 AM

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8. "yeah this is gonna be a blowout"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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CIPHA
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Fri May-22-20 10:43 AM

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9. "Dems gotta put Uncle Joe back on ice til the DNC"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I can't believe these are our choices.

...well, I can, but still.

_____________________________________

"I heard em' say I was a conscious rapper/ but Im a monster when I have to slap the shit out of a nonsense actor" -Talib Kweli, Good To You

  

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PROMO
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Fri May-22-20 11:01 AM

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14. "don't we got the tech to re-wire this dude?"
In response to Reply # 9


  

          

six million dollar man his ass or something?

STAND OUT HAND OUTS: http://basquiatwhenipaint.tumblr.com

TWEET ME: @PROMO206

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 10:56 AM

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11. "all biden has to do is make this election a referendum on trump."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

and as we see...he is having a hard time just doing that lol.

jesus christ what a shitty campaigner.

literally every ball is bouncing his way. burisma flopped, pandemic hurting trump, tara reade fell apart, obamagate was a dud, etc.

nothing can really hurt dude but his own damn mouth.

and thats exactly why this election will still be close lol.

------

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
14742 posts
Fri May-22-20 11:07 AM

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16. "Exactly. Dude needs to do nothing but prepared speeches once a month..."
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

just to let people know he's alive.
Maybe ramp it up to a speech every two weeks come the fall.
No interviews! No extemporaneous speeches!

He's got as many votes as he will ever get right now. Anything he does from now to November should be about just trying to keep them. Don't give people a reason to reconsider.



_______________________________________
You ain't the only one whose got problems. You ain't the only one who knows pain. Get up off your ass and just solve them. You still got a chance to try to change, try the shit again.
Devin tha Dude

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 11:18 AM

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17. "im just going to sleep til november and hope that everything works out."
In response to Reply # 16
Fri May-22-20 11:19 AM by Reeq

  

          

cuz the next few months are about to be excrutiating.

i have zero confidence that this will be bidens last/worst gaffe.

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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Fri May-22-20 11:03 AM

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15. "CNN is telling people to stay home and not vote w/this headline..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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FLUIDJ
Member since Sep 18th 2002
42338 posts
Fri May-22-20 12:05 PM

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21. "^^^Sees it^^^^"
In response to Reply # 15


  

          


"Get ready....for your blessing....."
"Bury me by my Grand-Grand and when you can come follow me"

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 11:34 AM

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18. "btw bidens campaign is being run by the woman who ran the beto campaign."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

not the beto senate campaign. the beto presidential campaign.

so yeah...a landslide prolly aint in the cards lol.

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
65394 posts
Fri May-22-20 11:49 AM

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19. "Swear sometimes I think it’s all rigged"
In response to Reply # 18


          

Of all the people in the world you pick a woman from a shitty campaign that never got off the ground?

Is Biden being cheap?

Is it impossible to get someone from Obama’s camp?

shut up already, damn

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 11:57 AM

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20. "she was the battleground states director for obama in 08"
In response to Reply # 19


  

          

and deputy campaign manager for him in 2012.

a lot of these dem political operatives...successful and failed...come from that obama tree.

hopefully we get more of her obama side and less of her beto side.

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 01:14 PM

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22. "sidenote: bidens approach to public option vs medicare for all"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

is so ham fisted and one dimensional. not the biggest issue right now...but i just saw his recent comments about it.

look...when everything is laid out (tax increases, private insurance elimination, etc)...public option is clearly more popular and less of a liability in battleground states.

but biden is painting himself as a clear opponent to medicare for all. like fully against it ever happening, will never support it, etc.

but public option was designed by obama to be a pathway to universal single payer healthcare. obama knew it would eventually be wildly popular and become a staple in the lives of average americans (like every other policy of 'socialism' repubs have historically attacked).

so instead of biden presenting his presidency as a dead end for m4a and turning off all of the liberal voters/politicians who support it...he should say that freedom of choice is a foundational principle in this country. and he should present public option as merely a mechanism to give americans a choice between what healthcare they want. private insurance (via obamacare)...or single payer (medicare) via public option.

completely voluntary. not being forced off one or on to the other. put everyones mind at ease that their preferred choice will be given a fair shot in the marketplace of policies/ideas.

theres really no way for anyone to effectively attack that. its low risk with high reward. if either private insurance or single payer is as bad is their detractors claim they are...then surely it will die a natural death when americans have the freedom to pick a presumable superior alternative right?

its what obama would have done if he was in this position. its what pete tried to do (and gave him his initial surge). i dont know why the biden campaign hasnt crafted a better message around this by now.

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luminous
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Fri May-22-20 01:46 PM

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23. "probably depends on who his corporate sponsors are..."
In response to Reply # 22


  

          

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Fri May-22-20 03:08 PM

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28. "i mean...obama took just as much big pharma money as anyone"
In response to Reply # 23


  

          

and still pushed for public option. knowing it would lead to single payer healthcare (as joe lieberman pointed out).

its a constant push/pull in the party at this point.

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luminous
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Fri May-22-20 03:34 PM

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30. "i think obama dropped it because it wasn't passing"
In response to Reply # 28


  

          

even with a democratic house and senate.

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Fri May-22-20 03:40 PM

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31. "yeah thafs what happened."
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

they dropped it to get joe lieberman (who opposed it) into the fold to pass the larger general bill.

my point was that obama had big pharma donors just like biden and he still tried to get public option across the finish line.

biden is overtly running on public option despite having big pharma donors too. so clearly he isnt shying away from that bridge to single payer.

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luminous
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Fri May-22-20 01:47 PM

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24. "I wish..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

are previous Trump voters feeling any regrets?

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

  

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Bambino Grande
Member since Mar 14th 2019
192 posts
Fri May-22-20 02:41 PM

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25. "Sidenote: How impactful are celebrity endorsements of a candidate?"
In response to Reply # 0


          


I just don't get how all the celebs and influencers and whoever with gazillions of followers and viewers aren't going HAM all year and really hammering in that people really need to get out here and vote for not-Trump. Where's Will Smith and Oprah and Rihanna and Selena Gomez and Reese Witherspoon at? Lol





  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Fri May-22-20 03:01 PM

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26. "this is why conservatives constantly tell celebs to shut up"
In response to Reply # 25
Fri May-22-20 03:03 PM by Reeq

  

          

and stick to their professions instead of constantly bringing up politics.

they know culture is upstream from politics.

these people are potentially massive megaphones for liberal messaging and would consistently dominate/drown the media narrative.

its why conservatives throw a party any time any famous person comes out as conservative or a trump supporter.

these people have huge followings with years of trustworthiness built into the relationship.

an acute endorsement around election time...especially in the absence of a prolonged political message...has a limited effect.

but could you imagine if the kardashians, the rock, kevin hart, arod/jlo, etc went full partisan 24/7 and constantly countered the right wing media system by bringing things like voter suppression and extremist judicial nominations to their followers attention?

their reach would make fox news look like a wordpress blog.

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luminous
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Fri May-22-20 03:07 PM

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27. "This, remember that Denzel interview that got brought up"
In response to Reply # 26


  

          

For no reason

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Fri May-22-20 03:41 PM

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32. "yup."
In response to Reply # 27


  

          

------

  

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Trinity444
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Fri May-22-20 03:30 PM

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29. "no."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

these boys playing Detroit ball, lol

I’m scared...


  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Fri May-22-20 03:52 PM

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33. "barack and michelle need to start campaigning to black people *now*."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

to the point where we think they are the ones running to be president/vp lol.

seriously black people need to be engaged with constant pro-actively pro-black messaging especially during this election.

just leaving it up to team biden and ongoing gaffe/apology roller coaster isnt gonna cut.

and there needs to be constant negative casting of trump and the republican party when it comes to race. just to highlight the differences in the parties.

because there are a lot of people that just view them as the same and dont ever hear shit about voter suppression, embedded white nationalism, delegitimization of pro-diversity policy, the effect of republican policies on black health and life expectancy, etc.

case and point...right now the landscape is rife with opportunity to attack the trump/repub coronavirus response and the disproportionate harm it is doing to black people. but biden is clearly not the person competent enough to press this issue and draw a clear distinction with black voters.

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decaturpsalm
Member since Apr 24th 2005
19267 posts
Sun May-24-20 07:08 AM

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36. "are you black? like are you an african-american man?"
In response to Reply # 33


  

          

you liken black voters
to children and its amusing
to see that youre serious

"dem niggaz need Chelle and BARACK!"
black voters need to be influenced?
because they dont know any better?

black voters need to be led to do what exactly?

_______________________________________
touched like midas these bitch ass niggas they study and bite us.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
9529 posts
Sun May-24-20 07:28 AM

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37. "what a silly take."
In response to Reply # 36


  

          

this your 1st election?

cuz apparently campaigning and targeting different voter groups is foreign to you.

when white people advised the obama campaign and dems in the 2018 midterms to deploy biden to the rust belt and midwest to help with messaging to white working class folks...did you question their whiteness? lol.

you sound like some suburban twitter activist tryna overcompensate and validate your wokeness.

you gonna lecture me on cultural appropriation and microaggression next? lol.

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decaturpsalm
Member since Apr 24th 2005
19267 posts
Sun May-24-20 07:45 AM

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39. "got it"
In response to Reply # 37


  

          

_______________________________________
touched like midas these bitch ass niggas they study and bite us.

  

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CIPHA
Charter member
418 posts
Sun May-24-20 12:51 PM

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40. "He didn't answer the question..."
In response to Reply # 39


  

          

_____________________________________

"I heard em' say I was a conscious rapper/ but Im a monster when I have to slap the shit out of a nonsense actor" -Talib Kweli, Good To You

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
65394 posts
Fri May-22-20 04:35 PM

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34. "Trump deemed churches essential. "
In response to Reply # 0


          

It’s like he wants his voters to die.

Hoping Black churches don’t fall for this shit.

Good friend is a pastor in DC and already told his church they aren’t opening.

shut up already, damn

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
65394 posts
Sun May-24-20 07:39 AM

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38. "Biden doing his best to throw away a W"
In response to Reply # 0


          

and somehow Black people are going to get blamed for it again if he loses.

Already getting blame for being upset over his clumsy attempt on the Breakfast Show.

shut up already, damn

  

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blkprinceMD05
Member since Nov 29th 2004
40935 posts
Sun May-24-20 10:35 PM

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41. "CA 25 got me worried. If we have to go to all mail in voting "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Which I think we all should but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk becuz a lot of ppl reliable on our side may not be used to voting by mail.

Plus I put my request for my mail in ballot for the June 9th ga primary and
The SOS voter page says it was mailed April 24 but I still haven’t gotten it.

prototype

stand ur ground, believe in urself,
believe in love, prepare urself for love, remove the negativity from ur life, and accept the love u kno u deserve

  

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