#prayerhandsemoji


Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts

New York (CNN Business) The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.
The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.
"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."
The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).

Ohio, Missouri could flip to Democrats

The national election model assumes that the economy is still in bad shape this fall, with unemployment above 13%, real per capita incomes down nearly 6% from a year ago and brief period of falling prices, or deflation.
"The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression," the Oxford Economics report said.
A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.
"We would expect these states to experience significant economic contractions and traumatic job losses that would likely swing pocketbook vote," the report said.
Oxford Economics developed the state-based model last year. It would have correctly predicted Trump's upset electoral college victory as well as seven of the nine prior elections since 1980.

Is it too early to predict the election?

Still, models based on economic trends are not political crystal balls. And they have no track record of predicting elections during pandemics.
"Traditional models work in normal times. But we're not in normal times right now," said Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments.
The election is still six months away. And the past six months show how much the world can change in that period of time. No one was predicting a 20% unemployment or a 40% collapse in GDP six months ago. Now, those are the consensus projections.

If the election were held today, Valliere said, former Vice President Joe Biden would probably win. But the next six months will give Trump time to reframe the debate around Biden and pin the blame for the pandemic on China.
"No one can go negative like Donald Trump," Valliere said.
Indeed, Oxford Economics said that its models have "inherent limitations," including the fact that they exclude noneconomic factors such as a candidate's agenda or likeability.
Betting odds favor Trump
More importantly, the models don't account for potential shifts in the pandemic. And this election may be a referendum on Trump's handling of the crisis.
"If new infections really pick up, people will conclude Trump opened the country too soon," said Valliere. "But if new infections drop, Trump will get some credit."
Another wildcard is how the pandemic impacts voter turnout. Strong turnout for Democrats could cause Trump to lose Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia, Oxford Economics said.
But weak Democratic turnout, along with a sharper economic recovery, could give Trump a "razor-thin" electoral college victory, the report said.

There are other signs that Trump should not be counted out in November.

Users on PredictIt, a prediction platform, give Trump a 50% chance of winning reelection. That's up from 45% in mid-March.
The betting odds also solidly favor Trump, according to an average compiled by RealClearPolitics.
Recessions hurt incumbents
Still, it's clear that some battleground states are hurting very badly right now.
For instance, more than one-quarter of the workforces of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada filed initial unemployment claims between March 14 and May 9. In Ohio, a bellwether state during presidential elections, 20% of the workforce has filed initial unemployment claims over that span.
"Every incumbent president facing a recession in the lead-up to reelection has lost," said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.

But the key will be whether voters feel that the economy is back on the right track, with unemployment falling sharply and GDP rapidly recovery.
"The real debate is what does the economy look like on Election Day?" said Mills. "Will the country have gotten past the worst of Covid-19 and the worst of the economic shock?"
No one can answer those questions with certainty right now.
Tax hikes on the horizon?
The election uncertainty could pose a risk to the stock market, which has spiked since late March on hopes of a V-shaped economic recovery and in response to massive stimulus from the federal government.
Wall Street doesn't want to see the pro-business elements of the Trump agenda disappear. Although investors don't love Trump's trade wars, his corporate tax cuts boosted S&P 500 earnings and set off a bonanza of share buybacks. Trump's regulatory rollbacks and spending hikes have also helped lift stocks.
Despite the pandemic, the S&P 500 is still standing nearly 40% above where it was prior to Trump's election.
If Biden wins the White House -- and the Senate flips to Democrats -- investors will be worry about tax hikes on companies and the rich, new restrictions on oil and gas production and increased financial regulation.
"In almost every area where Trump has undone former President Obama's legacy," analysts at Eurasia Group warned in a report on Tuesday. "A Biden presidency would try and restore the policy positions of the Obama administration and in most cases go beyond it."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=fbCNN&utm_term=link&utm_content=2020-05-20T18%3A44%3A04&fbclid=IwAR3rGccDzN0jFxGakBUQHrp7aEqR3LZevtgYnWx_olwMMVOyv3WEPMBPZYY&fbclid=IwAR2xKrE5C5ssUfV4MSjwurjAwd4cBjcPduLvY9i_muRxe7jKrjC6yca85VA

They are going to do everything they can to rig this election.

Everything points towards not winning but it’s America and his admin is some fucking gangsters.

and who isn't.

FFS.

not just that statement but theres no reason to be so unprepared for the other questions in that interview.

dude really needs to learn how to give the scripted mundane pc answers that may be boring and uninspiring but keep him out of the headlines for the wrong reasons.

trump is doing everything in his power to hand biden the election. and biden is doing everything in his power to hand it right back.

and not lose a vote.

lol

If I had to put money down right today, I'd say Trump is winning in November. He's got the incumbent advantage and a huge machine behind him

I can't believe these are our choices.

...well, I can, but still.

six million dollar man his ass or something?

and as we see...he is having a hard time just doing that lol.

jesus christ what a shitty campaigner.

literally every ball is bouncing his way. burisma flopped, pandemic hurting trump, tara reade fell apart, obamagate was a dud, etc.

nothing can really hurt dude but his own damn mouth.

and thats exactly why this election will still be close lol.

just to let people know he's alive.
Maybe ramp it up to a speech every two weeks come the fall.
No interviews! No extemporaneous speeches!

He's got as many votes as he will ever get right now. Anything he does from now to November should be about just trying to keep them. Don't give people a reason to reconsider.

cuz the next few months are about to be excrutiating.

i have zero confidence that this will be bidens last/worst gaffe.

"Get ready....for your blessing....."
"Bury me by my Grand-Grand and when you can come follow me"

not the beto senate campaign. the beto presidential campaign.

so yeah...a landslide prolly aint in the cards lol.

Of all the people in the world you pick a woman from a shitty campaign that never got off the ground?

Is Biden being cheap?

Is it impossible to get someone from Obama’s camp?

and deputy campaign manager for him in 2012.

a lot of these dem political operatives...successful and failed...come from that obama tree.

hopefully we get more of her obama side and less of her beto side.

is so ham fisted and one dimensional. not the biggest issue right now...but i just saw his recent comments about it.

look...when everything is laid out (tax increases, private insurance elimination, etc)...public option is clearly more popular and less of a liability in battleground states.

but biden is painting himself as a clear opponent to medicare for all. like fully against it ever happening, will never support it, etc.

but public option was designed by obama to be a pathway to universal single payer healthcare. obama knew it would eventually be wildly popular and become a staple in the lives of average americans (like every other policy of 'socialism' repubs have historically attacked).

so instead of biden presenting his presidency as a dead end for m4a and turning off all of the liberal voters/politicians who support it...he should say that freedom of choice is a foundational principle in this country. and he should present public option as merely a mechanism to give americans a choice between what healthcare they want. private insurance (via obamacare)...or single payer (medicare) via public option.

completely voluntary. not being forced off one or on to the other. put everyones mind at ease that their preferred choice will be given a fair shot in the marketplace of policies/ideas.

theres really no way for anyone to effectively attack that. its low risk with high reward. if either private insurance or single payer is as bad is their detractors claim they are...then surely it will die a natural death when americans have the freedom to pick a presumable superior alternative right?

its what obama would have done if he was in this position. its what pete tried to do (and gave him his initial surge). i dont know why the biden campaign hasnt crafted a better message around this by now.

and still pushed for public option. knowing it would lead to single payer healthcare (as joe lieberman pointed out).

its a constant push/pull in the party at this point.

even with a democratic house and senate.

they dropped it to get joe lieberman (who opposed it) into the fold to pass the larger general bill.

my point was that obama had big pharma donors just like biden and he still tried to get public option across the finish line.

biden is overtly running on public option despite having big pharma donors too. so clearly he isnt shying away from that bridge to single payer.

are previous Trump voters feeling any regrets?

I just don't get how all the celebs and influencers and whoever with gazillions of followers and viewers aren't going HAM all year and really hammering in that people really need to get out here and vote for not-Trump. Where's Will Smith and Oprah and Rihanna and Selena Gomez and Reese Witherspoon at? Lol

and stick to their professions instead of constantly bringing up politics.

they know culture is upstream from politics.

these people are potentially massive megaphones for liberal messaging and would consistently dominate/drown the media narrative.

its why conservatives throw a party any time any famous person comes out as conservative or a trump supporter.

these people have huge followings with years of trustworthiness built into the relationship.

an acute endorsement around election time...especially in the absence of a prolonged political message...has a limited effect.

but could you imagine if the kardashians, the rock, kevin hart, arod/jlo, etc went full partisan 24/7 and constantly countered the right wing media system by bringing things like voter suppression and extremist judicial nominations to their followers attention?

their reach would make fox news look like a wordpress blog.

For no reason

these boys playing Detroit ball, lol

I’m scared...

to the point where we think they are the ones running to be president/vp lol.

seriously black people need to be engaged with constant pro-actively pro-black messaging especially during this election.

just leaving it up to team biden and ongoing gaffe/apology roller coaster isnt gonna cut.

and there needs to be constant negative casting of trump and the republican party when it comes to race. just to highlight the differences in the parties.

because there are a lot of people that just view them as the same and dont ever hear shit about voter suppression, embedded white nationalism, delegitimization of pro-diversity policy, the effect of republican policies on black health and life expectancy, etc.

case and point...right now the landscape is rife with opportunity to attack the trump/repub coronavirus response and the disproportionate harm it is doing to black people. but biden is clearly not the person competent enough to press this issue and draw a clear distinction with black voters.

you liken black voters
to children and its amusing
to see that youre serious

"dem niggaz need Chelle and BARACK!"
black voters need to be influenced?
because they dont know any better?

black voters need to be led to do what exactly?

this your 1st election?

cuz apparently campaigning and targeting different voter groups is foreign to you.

when white people advised the obama campaign and dems in the 2018 midterms to deploy biden to the rust belt and midwest to help with messaging to white working class folks...did you question their whiteness? lol.

you sound like some suburban twitter activist tryna overcompensate and validate your wokeness.

you gonna lecture me on cultural appropriation and microaggression next? lol.

It’s like he wants his voters to die.

Hoping Black churches don’t fall for this shit.

Good friend is a pastor in DC and already told his church they aren’t opening.

and somehow Black people are going to get blamed for it again if he loses.

Already getting blame for being upset over his clumsy attempt on the Breakfast Show.

Which I think we all should but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk becuz a lot of ppl reliable on our side may not be used to voting by mail.

Plus I put my request for my mail in ballot for the June 9th ga primary and
The SOS voter page says it was mailed April 24 but I still haven’t gotten it.