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Subject: "The Iowa Caucus " Previous topic | Next topic
Vex_id
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65697 posts
Sun Feb-02-20 08:03 PM

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"The Iowa Caucus "


          

Chaos, anxiety and uncertainty loom ahead of Monday's Iowa Caucus.

First - in an unprecedented development - the Des Moines Register scrapped its final Iowa Poll before Monday's caucuses because of fears it was tainted:

https://www.axios.com/iowa-2020-poll-not-released-des-moines-register-caeea162-0861-47d9-a4d9-107725c81dfc.html

Next, The Democratic Majority for Israel SuperPac (a pro-Israeli government Pac) has spent $650,000 in ad-buy in Iowa in an attempt to takedown Sanders by bringing up his heart-attack (of all things):

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/pac-heart-attack-ad-bernie-sanders-108239

The ad:
https://youtu.be/F1xVJI2uf1c

Featured in the ad: a former Kamala staffer and Foreign Policy Establishment stalwarts who have dominated both parties

Finally - Kerry was overheard (apparently there's audio) speaking of his potential bid for a 2020 run, echoing fear of the Sanders ascent:

"Sitting in the lobby restaurant of the Renaissance Savery hotel, Kerry was overheard by an NBC News analyst saying "maybe I'm f---ing deluding myself here" and explaining that in order to run, he'd have to step down from the board of Bank of America and give up his ability to make paid speeches. Kerry said donors like venture capitalist Doug Hickey would have to "raise a couple of million," adding that such donors "now have the reality of Bernie.""

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/john-kerry-overheard-discussing-possible-2020-bid-amid-concern-sanders-n1128476

As for the polls - it seems to have shown Biden & Sanders as the two most likely victors out of Iowa - but given its unique Caucus - the results are unpredictable.

But if Sanders emerges out of Iowa with a strong showing - and takes New Hampshire (which seems to be a clear victory) - it will be very difficult to thwart his momentum given the strength of campaign resources, grass-roots energy, and infrastructure.

He is leading in California - top-tier in Nevada - and is even closing the gap (along with Steyer of all people) on Biden in South Carolina, who no longer holds a commanding, wide-margin advantage there.

In short: After a year of speculation, spin, and polling bonanza - we now get to see what actually is taking place on the ground.

Some asked whether the Biden front-runner status was actually legitimate - or if it was a pierceable veneer. We are about to find out.

John Kerry doesn't seem to be confident.

->

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
You forgot a story Rivals warn Sanders campaign plans to game Iowa
Feb 02nd 2020
1
So basically he is going to do what the GOP have been doing w/ Fox
Feb 03rd 2020
3
I think you're referring to the Clinton campaign
Feb 03rd 2020
5
      No it says Sanders in the title
Feb 03rd 2020
12
           Chris Matthews also said Sanders wouldn't stop on the highway
Feb 03rd 2020
13
           ....and Chris Matthews said Bernie will win big in Iowa
Feb 03rd 2020
14
                cool.
Feb 03rd 2020
18
                     lmao
Feb 03rd 2020
20
           LMAO!!!
Feb 03rd 2020
22
                Yep zero
Feb 03rd 2020
26
Go Bernie!
Feb 02nd 2020
2
Weird that our political betters didn't have a plan for this
Feb 03rd 2020
4
They did have a plan tho - it just didn't work
Feb 03rd 2020
6
why do you view everything through a pro/anti-bernie axis?
Feb 03rd 2020
9
      not everything - it's just that you don't see any kind of bias at play
Feb 03rd 2020
11
           i see plenty of anti-bernie bias. and call it out.
Feb 03rd 2020
15
                I know you fancy yourself objective here - but you're not
Feb 03rd 2020
17
                this part jumps out as not being true
Feb 03rd 2020
29
                what part of it isn't true?
Feb 03rd 2020
30
                primary oath to the democratic party?
Feb 03rd 2020
40
                why do you still bother with Vex?
Feb 03rd 2020
21
                     Well I mean - he's no Amy Klobuchar
Feb 03rd 2020
23
                     I've found it really frustrating to read his exchanges with some people.
Feb 03rd 2020
25
                          Just want to be clear on this:
Feb 03rd 2020
28
                               thanks for admitting this is about me being critical of sanders.
Feb 03rd 2020
32
                               I definitely admit my biases. And yes - 2016 left a mark.
Feb 03rd 2020
35
                                    i feel you. the party machine treated sanders shittily in 2016.
Feb 03rd 2020
45
                                         There definitely is a victim complex among Sanders supporters
Feb 03rd 2020
47
                                              fam i pray to God we can unify and turn out in full force.
Feb 03rd 2020
51
                                                   Likewise.
Feb 03rd 2020
54
                               Haha have you actually counted this ?
Feb 03rd 2020
33
                                    RE: Haha have you actually counted this ?
Feb 03rd 2020
37
                                    First of all, being "objective" doesn't mean being equally ...
Feb 03rd 2020
41
                                         Well that's interesting.
Feb 03rd 2020
46
                                         RE: Well that's interesting.
Feb 03rd 2020
49
                                              Fam, multiple just means more than one lol
Feb 03rd 2020
53
                                                   Yea I actually almost came back to concede that point haha.
Feb 03rd 2020
55
                                         to be honest/fair
Feb 03rd 2020
48
                                              Yes I was going to say that ...
Feb 03rd 2020
50
                                    lol
Feb 03rd 2020
38
                                         Hahaha.
Feb 03rd 2020
42
the irony is killing me.
Feb 03rd 2020
7
wheres john edwards?
Feb 03rd 2020
34
Obama isn't walking through that door
Feb 03rd 2020
24
      ^^^^
Feb 03rd 2020
36
      That's my biggest issue with how the Party functioned in '16:
Feb 03rd 2020
39
      RE: Obama isn't walking through that door
Feb 03rd 2020
44
what are your predictions?
Feb 03rd 2020
8
My prediction: It'll be a mess.
Feb 03rd 2020
10
      do you think the results are in question?
Feb 03rd 2020
16
      I think the results (whatever they may be) will be disputed
Feb 03rd 2020
19
      did you think it would be THIS big of a mess?? lol
Feb 04th 2020
113
           I expected the Caucus to be its usual mess
Feb 04th 2020
169
i cant believe in 2020 we still use caucuses
Feb 03rd 2020
27
And if you didn't think it was complicated enough
Feb 03rd 2020
31
People still churn their butter in Iowa
Feb 03rd 2020
43
They're over here counting raised hands like it's 3rd grade lol
Feb 03rd 2020
58
did anything come of your study of the hollywood/academia/politics
Feb 03rd 2020
52
I think you missed the reply in the post where we were discussing it
Feb 03rd 2020
56
      man i referenced it last week!
Feb 05th 2020
192
Fireworks early on MSNBC (Jason Johnson v. Nina Turner)
Feb 03rd 2020
57
ahh man i'd love to see that
Feb 03rd 2020
61
here's a link... pretty funny to see him jump up for bloomberg
Feb 03rd 2020
67
a MOTHERFUCKING EMBARRASSMENT.
Feb 04th 2020
98
      The white people were all terrified to jump in.
Feb 04th 2020
126
It's ridiculously early - but thus far it doesn't look good for Biden
Feb 03rd 2020
59
turnout seems to be ridiculously high.
Feb 03rd 2020
60
nvm looks like turnout was pretty low.
Feb 03rd 2020
CNN keeps talking about quality control as cause for delay
Feb 03rd 2020
62
FU Iowa
Feb 03rd 2020
63
seems like the feedback about the experience from caucusers
Feb 03rd 2020
64
Shit is embarrassing
Feb 03rd 2020
65
all this for a contest that is gonna be decided by like 2 delegates.
Feb 03rd 2020
66
      Amy is first to speak. Does she always sound like this?
Feb 03rd 2020
68
           She does
Feb 03rd 2020
70
           lol
Feb 04th 2020
114
           yeah she always sounds whiney.
Feb 03rd 2020
72
                Lmao.. she sounded shaky.
Feb 03rd 2020
74
Yea - unfortunately my thinking that it would be an absolute mess
Feb 03rd 2020
71
      you know who fought hard to keep the caucuses right? ;)
Feb 03rd 2020
73
           Lmao.. no, but I have a feeling now.
Feb 03rd 2020
75
           1st world nation with a 3rd world voter system.
Feb 03rd 2020
77
           Tom Perez who vowed to keep it in place?
Feb 03rd 2020
79
                *cough*
Feb 04th 2020
82
                     So what are you saying? The Caucus unfairly benefits Sanders?
Feb 04th 2020
83
                          *cough*
Feb 04th 2020
89
                               so now it’s #BerniesFault? Lmao
Feb 04th 2020
90
(not really clear on the definition of a caucus, or oligarch)
Feb 03rd 2020
69
Gotdamn.. Biden looks like he is about to die.
Feb 03rd 2020
76
His campaign sure is.
Feb 03rd 2020
80
we follow this clusterfuck with the trump state of the union tomorrow.
Feb 03rd 2020
78
"Acute failures" ? "Inconsistent Results" ?
Feb 03rd 2020
81
p booty already claiming victory.
Feb 04th 2020
84
trump has claimed victory too smh.
Feb 04th 2020
85
I’ll wait for Lurkmode’s outrage
Feb 04th 2020
86
      My outrage is directed at Bernie
Feb 04th 2020
125
           Clearly. #BerniesFault #ThanksBernard
Feb 04th 2020
148
Iowa has forfeited its right to be First In The Nation tonight
Feb 04th 2020
87
Iowa the first test case for 2020 Election Security (NYT)
Feb 04th 2020
88
nvm you edited lol
Feb 04th 2020
91
      Robby is denying any involvement whatsoever lol
Feb 04th 2020
92
           wow a democratic digital firm has democratic clients?
Feb 04th 2020
93
           I envy your undying faith in our institutions
Feb 04th 2020
94
                your original reply said robby mook was the ceo of the app company.
Feb 04th 2020
96
                     Damn my G you stalking posts now?
Feb 04th 2020
106
                          im stalking your posts you make in a thread we are both in?
Feb 04th 2020
110
                               Lol ok fam.
Feb 04th 2020
111
           there is no "we" you aren't with anyone
Feb 04th 2020
99
                Well - I’m certainly not with you
Feb 04th 2020
109
all indications are that biden got trounced in the final count tally.
Feb 04th 2020
95
for a political party...
Feb 04th 2020
97
y'all should look at who runs state level political organizations
Feb 04th 2020
100
absolutely. I know that in this state, it's a bunch of has-beens
Feb 04th 2020
103
Bro this is an absolute disgrace
Feb 04th 2020
107
      I have no idea who you listen to
Feb 04th 2020
151
           yea that's deep.
Feb 04th 2020
175
                I know you do.
Feb 04th 2020
177
I don’t think anyone can spin Iowa into a great night
Feb 04th 2020
101
if the numbers that have been put out hold up pete did "win"
Feb 04th 2020
115
      It’s a win if you beat your expectations
Feb 04th 2020
155
So... Bloomberg buys his way into the primary
Feb 04th 2020
102
It’s def a bad look for the DNC
Feb 04th 2020
104
      Pretty sure I could have counted every person in Iowa by now
Feb 04th 2020
120
      the dnc doesnt run state elections.
Feb 04th 2020
129
           It makes the party look like idiots.
Feb 04th 2020
145
           This is very much an Iowa Problem, not a DNC Problem
Feb 04th 2020
146
                It doesn’t really matter right now. Sure, Iowa is a shitshow
Feb 04th 2020
149
           no one cares though...it doesn't matter
Feb 04th 2020
147
Ranked choice voting will end this kind of nonsense...
Feb 04th 2020
105
Switching to a primary would end this kind of nonsense.
Feb 04th 2020
123
More details on the app used for the Iowa Caucus:
Feb 04th 2020
108
Unlimited ammo cheat enabled for Trump....
Feb 04th 2020
112
nothing to see here
Feb 04th 2020
116
That's pretty impressive for a small town mayor.
Feb 04th 2020
117
Correction: it appears Biden donated to the app in July
Feb 04th 2020
118
RE: Oh, and Pete happened to be the only candidate who declared victory ...
Feb 04th 2020
121
RE: Oh, and Pete happened to be the only candidate who declared victory ...
Feb 04th 2020
122
shit. show.
Feb 04th 2020
128
LA Times with some good reporting here on app debacle:
Feb 04th 2020
119
Two Points
Feb 04th 2020
124
Me: I don't think I could like Mayo Pete less
Feb 04th 2020
130
I’m paranoid...
Feb 04th 2020
127
^^^^^
Feb 05th 2020
194
lmk if you agree with this person, I'm trying to see something
Feb 05th 2020
215
We are getting the “majority” of the results at 5pm.
Feb 04th 2020
131
what an absolute mess
Feb 04th 2020
132
      This is pretty normal in software development
Feb 04th 2020
135
      either way its a horrible look
Feb 04th 2020
138
      This isn’t normal for a fucking primary bruh
Feb 04th 2020
141
      nah, this is fairly normal...hysteria just makes it seem abnormal
Feb 05th 2020
185
           a lot of people don't know what happens in primaries
Feb 05th 2020
216
      nothing normal about this whatsoever.
Feb 04th 2020
144
           ?????????????????????
Feb 04th 2020
150
           it's normal not to have results yet?
Feb 04th 2020
153
           No one is saying an app crashing isn’t normal
Feb 04th 2020
156
                stfu. you never heard of any of this shit before yesterday
Feb 04th 2020
159
                     Sit your Gary Gnu ass down
Feb 04th 2020
162
                     more unhinged Napoleon complex rants from RJ
Feb 04th 2020
176
                          it's funny how they turn to insults when they know the criticism is true
Feb 05th 2020
181
           sure. what were the results of the michigan Democratic primary in '08? '...
Feb 04th 2020
152
                Michigan is trash too
Feb 04th 2020
154
                     name the states that aren't trash
Feb 04th 2020
160
      just a total 'L' all around now
Feb 04th 2020
143
Check out this magic coin toss btw Pete and Amy
Feb 04th 2020
133
The fuck?
Feb 04th 2020
134
posting alt right troll accounts?
Feb 04th 2020
136
      Do you think the video is fake?
Feb 04th 2020
140
           not sure. just saying that shouldnt be your source.
Feb 04th 2020
166
Mayor Pete’s Staffer is a Fucking Idiot:
Feb 04th 2020
137
RE: Mayor Pete’s Staffer is a Fucking Idiot:
Feb 04th 2020
139
Voter turnout was low. We are fucked.
Feb 04th 2020
142
That 5:00 Press Conference Announcement
Feb 04th 2020
157
PETE????
Feb 04th 2020
158
RE: That 5:00 Press Conference Announcement
Feb 04th 2020
161
President MayorPete
Feb 04th 2020
163
What ? Pete ?
Feb 04th 2020
164
tulsi gabbard killing it.
Feb 04th 2020
165
      lmao
Feb 04th 2020
168
LOL. They wanted people to sideload an iPhone app
Feb 04th 2020
167
This is criminally dumb.
Feb 04th 2020
170
even if your plan was to feign incompetence and fail on purpose
Feb 04th 2020
172
sideload an *iPhone* app?
Feb 04th 2020
173
they weren't even using testflight.
Feb 04th 2020
178
I *think* you meant to say "Russia" but
Feb 05th 2020
187
      what?
Feb 05th 2020
217
My Prediction Scorecard:
Feb 04th 2020
171
Yo. Trump's really out here installing Presidents via the SOTU
Feb 04th 2020
174
Hold on, WHAT. He brought Guaido out?
Feb 05th 2020
182
      Did you see what he said about AOC?
Feb 05th 2020
184
      He sure did
Feb 05th 2020
199
The idiots I work with are ANTI quite a few dems
Feb 04th 2020
179
The big takeaway: Dem candidates need to get their digital shit...
Feb 05th 2020
180
According to the article RJCC posted the Dems had the digital
Feb 05th 2020
183
I remember reading an article years ago (probably in the NYT)...
Feb 05th 2020
204
i heard the price tag on this shit and guffawed loudly as fuck
Feb 05th 2020
186
      My inkling of hope is that this is who the statewide DNC contracted...
Feb 05th 2020
205
           oh you know it is.
Feb 06th 2020
219
What an absolute buttfumble.
Feb 05th 2020
188
lmao @ a triple double.
Feb 05th 2020
189
So they put incompetent self-dealing above democracy?
Feb 05th 2020
190
A nonprofit? Yeah... lol.
Feb 05th 2020
191
At this point, to not call for reform is telling on yourself.
Feb 05th 2020
198
Why do you keep omitting multiple candidates contributed to this app?
Feb 05th 2020
208
      If you could read above - I mentioned Biden as well
Feb 05th 2020
210
           Alright cool, I see #118. But you still omitted Biden here in #198. Like
Feb 05th 2020
213
                Again, merely engaging in some fact-finding
Feb 05th 2020
214
the realest talk
Feb 05th 2020
200
I actually think the calamity was a good thing.
Feb 05th 2020
193
i have to say it was good for pete
Feb 05th 2020
195
Definitely a good night for Pete.
Feb 05th 2020
201
      This was bad for Biden. Really bad
Feb 05th 2020
207
Well, at least we can agree on this:
Feb 05th 2020
196
RE: The Iowa Circus
Feb 05th 2020
197
Nonwhite Iowa caucus voters Bernie 43% Pete 15% Biden 13%
Feb 05th 2020
202
You're a connoisseur of carefully cultivated cherries.
Feb 05th 2020
203
Huge for Bernie.. not so good for the others lol
Feb 05th 2020
206
Really interested in how Bernie performs down south.
Feb 05th 2020
209
      RE: Really interested in how Bernie performs down south.
Feb 05th 2020
211
      Sanders is the strongest candidate in terms of broad support
Feb 05th 2020
212
           The demographics of Iowa doesn’t really help much
Feb 06th 2020
223
BTW this is wrong.
Feb 07th 2020
308
are the results still rigged and invalid now that Bernie might've won or...
Feb 06th 2020
218
The initial headlines are the point of winning IA.
Feb 06th 2020
220
      STILL RIGGED
Feb 06th 2020
221
      It also protected Biden from a horrible L
Feb 06th 2020
222
Which one of you OKPs is this?
Feb 06th 2020
224
Pete Partisans threaten violence against diverse Sanders' coalition
Feb 06th 2020
242
LMAO
Feb 06th 2020
253
lol it's going to be a long year for the Conservative Democrats.
Feb 06th 2020
281
This is cool as hell
Feb 06th 2020
225
I hadn't seen that.
Feb 06th 2020
231
warms my cold, dead heart
Feb 06th 2020
243
"Pork plant workers turn out for Sanders in 1st caucus in Iowa"
Feb 06th 2020
246
Bernie up and Biden down on 538's forecast
Feb 06th 2020
226
Uh oh
Feb 06th 2020
227
while liberals were amplifying disinfo and fighting amongst each other
Feb 06th 2020
228
We really have to stop blaming the GOP for our incompetence
Feb 06th 2020
229
was there any reporting on this before last night/this morning
Feb 06th 2020
230
It doesn’t matter
Feb 06th 2020
232
      RE: It doesn’t matter
Feb 06th 2020
234
           So now it’s Tommy Joe in Iowa with a Boost mobile plan.. and Russia
Feb 06th 2020
236
                Apparently, there's no defense for internet trolls.
Feb 06th 2020
239
Iowa results as of this morning (2/6)
Feb 06th 2020
233
.
Feb 06th 2020
235
He “won” Iowa... which sucks for everyone but Bernie
Feb 06th 2020
237
      bernie can claim victory regardless.
Feb 06th 2020
249
           I do grapple with a couple things tho: 1) urban-rural and 2) 2nd realign...
Feb 06th 2020
277
                RE: I do grapple with a couple things tho: 1) urban-rural and 2) 2nd rea...
Feb 06th 2020
278
                     --------"I'm not advocating against popular vote counts"--------
Feb 06th 2020
286
Liberal technocrats: Trust us, we're the smart ones
Feb 06th 2020
247
      State-level election workers, most of them volunteers,
Feb 06th 2020
252
      LOL.
Feb 06th 2020
279
Chair Perez calls to recanvass caucus vote; says "enough is enough"
Feb 06th 2020
238
they havent even fully released the original results.
Feb 06th 2020
240
So now the DNC is blindsiding Iowa on twitter?
Feb 06th 2020
241
this
Feb 06th 2020
250
      enough is enough!
Feb 06th 2020
251
           lol yikes
Feb 06th 2020
254
                There's a reason nobody had heard of the DNC...
Feb 06th 2020
257
                     yeah i was gonna mention this.
Feb 06th 2020
260
                     RE: yeah i was gonna mention this.
Feb 06th 2020
261
                     You mean until watshername Shultz made an ass of herself.
Feb 06th 2020
262
                          No, until Bernie fed gullible people the delusion that she had power
Feb 06th 2020
264
                               Lmao. I hope they pay you well.
Feb 06th 2020
266
                                    And I hope your life is as exciting as the movie in your head.
Feb 06th 2020
274
                                    yall gotta stop with this shit.
Feb 06th 2020
283
                                         Nah.. y’all need to stop blaming Bernie for some of these fuck ups.
Feb 06th 2020
300
do-over! smh
Feb 06th 2020
244
thats not what a recanvass is.
Feb 06th 2020
245
DNC is like “find more votes for Biden”
Feb 06th 2020
248
The DNC doesn't have the legal power to force a recanvas.
Feb 06th 2020
255
Lmao
Feb 06th 2020
256
Bernie Bros dude.. like totally dude, yeeeeah.
Feb 06th 2020
275
      i mean...they *are* a big reason why we are in this mess.
Feb 06th 2020
282
apparently several people complained about satellite sites
Feb 06th 2020
259
      This should honestly be the last year for caucuses. It's down to 6
Feb 06th 2020
265
      theyre actually bringing online voting to states like wv.
Feb 06th 2020
267
      Nothing is as egregious as the Black Hawk County debacle
Feb 06th 2020
268
           or just nuke the entire site from orbit. its the only way to be sure.
Feb 06th 2020
270
                Yea - the only silver lining to all this is hopefully we get reform
Feb 06th 2020
272
                     ive seen a few people suggest this and it makes the most sense.
Feb 06th 2020
276
Iowa Chair Troy Prince responds to DNC call for a recanvass:
Feb 06th 2020
258
hey vex did you write this article?
Feb 06th 2020
263
      I know how much you love Michael Tracey
Feb 06th 2020
269
           top 5? over klobuchar?
Feb 06th 2020
271
                She's consistently polled in the top 6 - behind Amy
Feb 06th 2020
273
                     What a load of shit
Feb 06th 2020
280
                          lol
Feb 06th 2020
284
                          lol fam
Feb 06th 2020
285
                          LOL! Great news everyone, I'm polling top 10 in NH
Feb 06th 2020
287
                          lol y'all brought her up and asked for her standing in NH
Feb 06th 2020
288
                               did better than kamala & beto?
Feb 06th 2020
289
                                    certainly was better managed - both fiscally and stylistically
Feb 06th 2020
299
i just realized *nobody* is talking about andrew yang.
Feb 06th 2020
290
there are stories about him
Feb 06th 2020
291
damn lol
Feb 06th 2020
292
it's not a real campaign.
Feb 06th 2020
294
*pours some out for my boy* :(
Feb 06th 2020
296
      he needed that donation fam!
Feb 06th 2020
297
      true. true
Feb 06th 2020
298
      RIP MATH
Feb 07th 2020
313
      Bloomberg's passed him in "non-sequitur celebrity endorsements"
Feb 07th 2020
314
           Hashtag Smalltown
Feb 07th 2020
315
           Careful, you're awaken the manlet caucus
Feb 07th 2020
319
                I was inspired by El Bloombito's op-ed in the NYT today
Feb 07th 2020
322
                     "Results" seems super menacing here
Feb 07th 2020
325
                          Glad you are seeing through the facade as well. So many don't.
Feb 07th 2020
339
                               *nods furiously*
Feb 07th 2020
347
           LOL I missed this whole episode
Mar 10th 2020
376
IDP “mistakenly” awarded Sanders delegates to Patrick
Feb 06th 2020
293
So now Sanders is claiming a "very strong victory"
Feb 06th 2020
295
^mad
Feb 06th 2020
301
btw doesn't turnout
Feb 06th 2020
302
2016 was not high turnout for Democrats.
Feb 06th 2020
305
      RE: 2016 was not high turnout for Democrats.
Feb 07th 2020
309
           That's not an argument for how he can win.
Feb 07th 2020
318
Man...you HATE you some Bernie Sanders lol
Feb 06th 2020
303
None of our candidates are any good.
Feb 06th 2020
304
If Trump can win, Sanders can win
Feb 06th 2020
306
He's not as good as Trump is at playing Trump's game, though.
Feb 06th 2020
307
gotta play the game to win
Feb 07th 2020
311
The problem is not that he overpromises.
Feb 07th 2020
317
bernie has stood up to
Feb 07th 2020
312
I wonder if folks like Mitch Landrieu and Sherrod have regrets
Feb 07th 2020
326
      I'm honestly coming around on Pete.
Feb 07th 2020
333
           RE: I'm honestly coming around on Pete.
Feb 07th 2020
352
I don't know man
Feb 07th 2020
327
RE: None of our candidates are any good.
Feb 07th 2020
310
      Where do you think I made that assumption?
Feb 07th 2020
316
Hate isn’t a strong enough word.. lol
Feb 07th 2020
320
      Oh I despise him. I thought I was making that pretty clear.
Feb 07th 2020
321
You've essentially become what you hate in politics lol
Feb 07th 2020
331
      Suuuuuure.
Feb 07th 2020
337
           lol struck a nerve?
Feb 07th 2020
338
           RE: lol struck a nerve?
Feb 07th 2020
345
                Cool.
Feb 07th 2020
361
           It sucks that nobody else is calling you on this
Feb 07th 2020
340
                I hesitated on listing you there.
Feb 07th 2020
348
                Show me, or apologize
Feb 07th 2020
349
                     This is the one that comes to mind.
Feb 07th 2020
353
                          Oh, fair - but that's not actually what I meant
Feb 07th 2020
357
                               Well this ended up going better than I would have expected.
Feb 07th 2020
359
                He believes Bernie is the reason Hillary lost to Trump
Feb 07th 2020
350
                     Yes and yes.
Feb 07th 2020
354
                     Basically. Even Bloomberg thinks Sanders would've beat Trump
Feb 07th 2020
362
                          She came close tho.. lol
Feb 07th 2020
363
100% reporting's posted (all 1765 precincts), might as well update the p...
Feb 07th 2020
323
definitely a tie
Feb 07th 2020
324
I think at this point Warren would need help
Feb 07th 2020
328
      warren definitely needs someone to help her campaign
Feb 07th 2020
329
The focus on SDE's has been misplaced and outdated
Feb 07th 2020
330
can i get some honest opinions on these bernie performance numbers?
Feb 07th 2020
332
I'm honestly gonna stay out of this subthread.
Feb 07th 2020
334
fam i actually *want* somebody to put a positive spin on those things.
Feb 07th 2020
335
      There is nothing positive for Bernie except the win in number of votes
Feb 07th 2020
342
Couple things:
Feb 07th 2020
336
This is bad
Feb 07th 2020
360
Buttigieg has received a purported *16%* bump in some NH polls
Feb 07th 2020
341
Seems irrational don't it?
Feb 07th 2020
343
      So that's what you think the Buttigieg bump is about?
Feb 07th 2020
344
           Yes, people will switch to perceived front runners
Feb 07th 2020
346
                I thought the GOP wanted Bernie to win?
Feb 07th 2020
351
                Nah people will stay home
Feb 07th 2020
355
                the rent is too damn high to not stay home
Feb 07th 2020
356
                     You know what you gotta do
Feb 07th 2020
358
                The GOP wants to sow greievence between Democrats
Feb 07th 2020
364
                Then wouldn’t they want anyone but Bernie?
Feb 07th 2020
366
                     No, they WANT Bernie or Pete
Feb 08th 2020
368
                          Trump HIMSELF said he was most scared of Bernie
Feb 08th 2020
369
                          Man.. y’all hate Bernie so much it’s clouding your thinking.
Feb 10th 2020
374
                They do
Feb 07th 2020
365
                Here
Feb 09th 2020
370
                RE: Yes, people will switch to perceived front runners
Feb 08th 2020
367
                There is no evidentiary basis for this view:
Feb 09th 2020
371
Final delegate results: 14 for Pete, 12 for Sanders, 8 Warren, 6 Biden,
Feb 09th 2020
372
Sanders Campaign to Request Partial Iowa Recanvass
Feb 09th 2020
373
Who won the Iowa Caucus? The AP (and others) refuse to say
Feb 10th 2020
375

Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
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1. "You forgot a story Rivals warn Sanders campaign plans to game Iowa"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/02/berniesanders-campaigniowa-results-110318

Rivals warn Sanders campaign plans to game Iowa results
Fueling the rising anxiety is a change to how the caucuses will report their results in 2020.


Sen. Bernie Sanders addresses a campaign rally Saturday in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. | M. Scott Mahaskey/Politico

By NATASHA KORECKI

02/02/2020 07:32 AM EST


CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — Rival campaigns are sounding the alarm that Bernie Sanders could be planning to claim victory on Monday night — before the caucuses are concluded.

It’s a move, they say, that could have a significant effect on the outcome.



Sanders and his team have made clear their intention to tout the results of the first round of caucus voting Monday, even though the Iowa Democratic Party stresses that the only number that matters is the final delegate count.

Aides with two top-tier campaigns told POLITICO they worry the Sanders campaign or other pro-Sanders forces — which will be receiving unofficial precinct results from allies in real time — will disseminate that information through social media or publicly claim victory after the first vote, an act that could distort the eventual results in a variety of ways.

A claim of victory after the first vote could encourage supporters of weaker candidates to leave the caucuses early without realigning with another candidate. Or it could create an artificial bandwagon effect by encouraging some caucus-goers to jump to Sanders’ side under the belief that he will be the victor.

Either scenario stands to hurt the campaigns that are more reliant than Sanders on the realignment round that happens after the first preference vote is cast. During realignment, supporters of candidates who failed to hit a 15 percent threshold in the first vote are freed up to switch to another candidate.

“I think if any campaign is going to be thinking of ways to game this, or to claim victory or to claim something, then I think it’s in poor spirit and poor form of the Iowa caucuses.”

- Brenda Kole, an Iowa campaign veteran

Fueling the rising anxiety is a change to how the Iowa caucuses report their results in 2020. The party will, for the first time, disclose the results from the first two rounds of voting and the allotment of what are known as ‘state delegate equivalents.’ Major news organizations, including the Associated Press, have said they would declare the winner based on that final delegate count.



“We have had private, ongoing conversations with multiple campaigns to ensure caucus integrity and voter protections are upheld. It is critical that no campaign undercut this democratic process with self-serving election interference,” a Biden campaign official said in a statement to POLITICO. “And the press should certainly not gratify any dishonest attempt to distort the process before it is finished.”

The Sanders campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

In previous caucus years, the Iowa Democratic Party has only provided the delegate counts. But this year, the party plans to release results of the first preference vote, a second realignment vote and the final delegate count, all at the same time.

The Sanders campaign has not said if it will publicize the first round totals before the state party releases its official results, only that it believes the first round vote totals are an accurate indicator of who won the caucuses.

The distrust between the campaigns is another reminder that the ghosts of 2016, when a rift between party traditionalists and Sanders loyalists fractured the party, still linger in the run-up to 2020.

“I think if any campaign is going to be thinking of ways to game this, or to claim victory or to claim something, then I think it’s in poor spirit and poor form of the Iowa caucuses,” said Brenda Kole, an Iowa campaign veteran volunteering with the party on Monday and unaffiliated with any 2020 Democratic campaign. “From what I know, the Iowa Democratic Party is having discussions with the leaders of these campaigns, with the national media and with other influencers to say: ‘Hey, the numbers are all coming in to the IDP, we are responsible for the accounting and reporting of the final raw number total and the final state delegate equivalencies.”

“Everybody is playing by one set of rules except for Bernie,” said an aide with one of the competing campaigns. “They don’t really care if they disrupt it. They hate the Democratic Party. They hated them from four years ago, and they hate them now.”

But some Democratic officials say the Sanders campaign has given no indication it holds any animus toward the party. At a Sioux City rally last week, Sanders invited Troy Price, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, backstage where the two had a discussion in advance of the caucuses.




The changes to caucus rules were put into place to help address the problems that haunted the 2016 Iowa contest, where Hillary Clinton won a narrow victory — 49.8 percent to Sanders’ 49.6 percent.

Sanders supporters challenged the legitimacy of the results, exposing an archaic system that made it difficult to even count heads, much less provide for an accurate recount.



As part of the Democratic National Committee’s post-2016 review, Sanders’ allies worked to open up the caucus process in Iowa, requiring the state Democratic Party to provide the initial raw vote, the realigned vote and state delegate equivalents.

Some Biden supporters claimed a demonstration staged in the Biden Des Moines campaign office last week — where about 30 demonstrators with a progressive group that backed Sanders, entered the offices and refused to leave — signaled the potential for disruptions at caucus sites on Monday.

“There are going to be tempers, I’m sure people are going to get wound up, they always do. But I hope that they understand that they have a responsibility not just to their candidate but to the country and to our state,” former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who has endorsed Biden, said of the prospect of disruptive behavior on caucus night. “I hope they understand that, then hopefully they’ll be more restrained and not, basically, emulate Trump.”

Steven Shepard contributed to this report.

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Castro
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3. "So basically he is going to do what the GOP have been doing w/ Fox"
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

for years.


.00000003 precincts reporting that George W. Bush has beaten....

------------------
One Hundred.

  

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Vex_id
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5. "I think you're referring to the Clinton campaign"
In response to Reply # 1


          

who declared victory prematurely before they actually knew what the outcome would be:

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/hillary-all-declares-victory-iowa-too-close-call

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:51 AM

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12. "No it says Sanders in the title"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          


"Rivals warn Sanders campaign plans to game Iowa results"

Later in the article it says

"The Sanders campaign did not respond to a request for comment."

Which is odd given how easy it is to deny it if they are not going to game the results.

Chris Matthews compared Bernie's run to McGovern's

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/481186-chris-matthews-expresses-worries-democrats-need-to-find-candidate-who-can-beat

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Vex_id
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13. "Chris Matthews also said Sanders wouldn't stop on the highway"
In response to Reply # 12


          

if you were in trouble. Even Joe Scarborough had to push back on the madness.

But yea - to the point: You're referencing speculation from "rivals" that Bernie is going to try and "job" the Iowa Caucus. Well - according to their logic/standards - Clinton *did* try and job the Iowa Caucus in 2016.

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
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14. "....and Chris Matthews said Bernie will win big in Iowa"
In response to Reply # 13
Mon Feb-03-20 12:05 PM by Lurkmode

  

          

>if you were in trouble. Even Joe Scarborough had to push
>back on the madness.
>
>But yea - to the point: You're referencing speculation from
>"rivals" that Bernie is going to try and "job" the Iowa
>Caucus. Well - according to their logic/standards - Clinton
>*did* try and job the Iowa Caucus in 2016.
>


lol you keep going back to Clinton, but I'm asking about Bernie. Why no comment from the Bern camp when they could end all speculation from rivals with a statement ?

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Vex_id
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18. "cool. "
In response to Reply # 14


          

Your report was super vague - but hope it was informative for you.

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
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Mon Feb-03-20 12:33 PM

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20. "lmao"
In response to Reply # 18


  

          

smh

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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22. "LMAO!!!"
In response to Reply # 12


          


Dude has no shame. None.


  

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Lurkmode
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26. "Yep zero"
In response to Reply # 22


  

          

>
>Dude has no shame. None.
>
>
>


You called it in the post below.

"Dude doesn't address points, moves goal posts, something something post-partisan, but what about Clinton."


over and over and over

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seasoned vet
Member since Jul 29th 2008
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Sun Feb-02-20 08:33 PM

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2. "Go Bernie!"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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Walleye
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4. "Weird that our political betters didn't have a plan for this"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Party bigwigs: Trust us, the grown-ups. Sanders can't win and will doom the party.

Also party bigwigs: You guys like John Kerry, right?

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Vex_id
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6. "They did have a plan tho - it just didn't work"
In response to Reply # 4


          

They basically experimented with a myriad of candidates before getting to this point. First Beto was supposed to be the one - then Kamala had all the juice. When that didn't work, they tried to Obama baptize Mayor Pete. They even begrudgingly settled on Warren. And all the while - they always had Biden to fall back on if nothing else worked.

Now that none of the aforementioned seem to work - I think Kerry's desperation signals just flat out frustration with their inability to present a candidate more compelling to voters than Sanders.

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:47 AM

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9. "why do you view everything through a pro/anti-bernie axis?"
In response to Reply # 6


          

serious question.

who is this clandestine and diabolical 'they'?

all the candidates have a varied range of voters, party endorsers, political/financial allies, etc.

aka a primary.

a lot of those folks (including the majority of biden voters) have bernie as their 2nd favorite option.

'they' werent cycling between candidates simply as handpicked foils to bernie. but you were. simply because they werent bernie.

kamala and castro went the hardest at *biden*. nobody in the biden camp accused them of being anti-biden plants/proxies.

in fact...most of these candidates launched their strongest attacks at candidates other than bernie. kinda weird for a group of supposedly anointed anti-bernie candidates to be largely unfocused on bernie right?

plus if anti-bernie forces were in some grand conspiracy to stop bernie...you think they would have chosen to run 20 candidates? lol.

  

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Vex_id
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11. "not everything - it's just that you don't see any kind of bias at play"
In response to Reply # 9


          

But for you to still deny that Dem power brokers are doing everything they can to thwart Bernie's momentum is pretty peculiar my G.

You'd have to be a magnificent coincidence theorist to believe that Bernie is just another candidate who has been regarded as and treated equitably by Dem power brokers.

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Feb-03-20 12:06 PM

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15. "i see plenty of anti-bernie bias. and call it out."
In response to Reply # 11


          

some people suffer from the same 'us vs them' binary sorting that bernie supporters like you do.

the idea that there was some unified caucus just hopping from candidate to candidate based on their potential to beat bernie is asinine.

but it makes perfect sense if you view one candidate (who has been in congress for 30 years and voted reliably democrat 98% of the time) as some political outsider and *everyone else* as 'the establishment'.

the supporters of every other top dem candidate (excluding yang) overwhelmingly pledge to support the eventual dem nominee. even if its bernie. almost *half* of bernie supporters arent committed to doing the same.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPAzHgTWAAA2p5M?format=png&name=small

so who exactly has the bias? are you gonna call *them* out? cuz the bernie folks are clearly a lot more anti-everyone-else than everyone else is anti-bernie.



  

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Vex_id
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17. "I know you fancy yourself objective here - but you're not"
In response to Reply # 15


          

>some people suffer from the same 'us vs them' binary sorting
>that bernie supporters like you do.

The irony of that is rich - considering that Bernie's very presence in politics is a contradiction to the binary left-right sorting of partisan politics that you seem intent on framing these discussions in. Sanders is uniquely positioned to be able diagnose the problems in both parties - and he's done so in a way that resonates with the majority of Americans who did not identify as partisans.

Of course, those (like yourself) whose primary oath is to the Democratic Party will not be keen to see a perceived outsider try and institute reform. It's a very human reflexive response - but also one that serves to protect the long-established interests in the party infrastructure. The reason that there's been a fairly strong effort to diminish Sanders (from party power wielders) is because they know that a Sanders Administration would put an end to much of the gravy-train, business as usual order of the day.

And simply calling out the fact that both political Establishments have sold out the people and have enabled special interests to take control of our politics is not "suffering from binary sorting" - that's simply calling out corruption.

>the supporters of every other top dem candidate (excluding
>yang) overwhelmingly pledge to support the eventual dem
>nominee. even if its bernie. almost *half* of bernie
>supporters arent committed to doing the same.
>
>https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPAzHgTWAAA2p5M?format=png&name=small

You keep bringing up this speculative point - yet failed to address the hard facts. Bernie voters didn't abandon the eventual nominee in 2016 at some unprecedented rate. In fact, more Bernie voters voted for Clinton in 2016 than did Clinton voters who voted for McCain in 2008.

So the more reliable data is on what has actually occurred via actual votes - not small sample-size querying of the most ardent supporters of a particular candidate.




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makaveli
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29. "this part jumps out as not being true"
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

"he's done so in a way that resonates with the majority of Americans who did not identify as partisans."

“So back we go to these questions — friendship, character… ethics.”

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:32 PM

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30. "what part of it isn't true? "
In response to Reply # 29


          

>"he's done so in a way that resonates with the majority of
>Americans who did not identify as partisans."
>


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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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40. "primary oath to the democratic party?"
In response to Reply # 17


          

i wasnt even registered to vote as a democrat until 2016...when i switched my party affiliation from indie to democrat just to vote for *sanders* in the primary lol.

vex stop making claims of shit you have no idea about (and are usually proven to be flat out wrong). its getting annoying.

and how does bernies presence contradict left-right partisan politics? he has voted with dems almost 100% of the time...is the furthest left politician in the race...and least likely equipped to appeal to moderate or center-right voters. do you think he can pull in a boarder coalition than obama? cuz lol if so.

and bernie has only been the primary sponsor of 7 laws in his entire 30 year history in congress. and 3 of those were for naming post offices or commemorating days.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPRidvVWAAIFMra?format=jpg&name=900x900

booker and warren have have virtually the same amount of primarily sponsored laws passed...in 1/4 the time as bernie.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPQQ_K_U4AA2Eqi?format=jpg&name=small

how do you consider someone like qualified to institute wide-ranging reform when he has no record of getting his legislative priorities passed through congress (unless youre pushing for post office title reform lol).

if a 'moderate' candidate had that same track record...bernie folks wouldnt be calling them 'uniquely positioned' to do anything. they would be calling them ineffective and part of the problem.

i mean...liz created an entire pro-consumer agency before she even got to congress. bernie hasnt even created a vanity congressional caucus lol.

bernie isnt an outsider. hes a sideliner. a congressional heckler booing people who have actually used their political capital and put some legislative skin in the game. hes liberal rand paul. its easy to criticize all the players when you havent actually suited up and ran an offense.


>You keep bringing up this speculative point - yet failed to
>address the hard facts. Bernie voters didn't abandon the
>eventual nominee in 2016 at some unprecedented rate. In fact,
>more Bernie voters voted for Clinton in 2016 than did Clinton
>voters who voted for McCain in 2008.

i assume you meant obama (eventual same-party nominee) instead of mccain.

firstly the behavior youre trying to quantify is extremely 'speculative' and based on estimates that largely hinge upon actions that cant be validated (even more volatile than generic exit polling).

there have been estimates anywhere from 6% to 15% to 25% of sanders voters going for trump. but for some reason people have only hung on to the highest 25% figure estimated for clinton-mccain voters.

but clinton had over 4 million more votes in 2008 than bernie did in 2016. her primary voters were also much more likely to vote in the general (whereas more sanders voters stayed home). so the proportion of primary-general voters who switched sides is gonna be greater either way. if you take into account the people who switched *and* the people who abstained...itd be much more relevant/representative.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:07 PM

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21. "why do you still bother with Vex?"
In response to Reply # 15


          


Honest question.

Dude doesn't address points, moves goal posts, something something post-partisan, but what about Clinton.

And he acts like this entire thing (politics) is his freshman poli-sci summer elective.


I get as frustrated with the Dem party as much as anybody, and even I roll my eyes at his bullshit.

Dude really thinks Bernie transcends partisan politics. In Amerikkka. In 2020.

I mean, he can't admit that Bloomberg being in the race- no matter how fucked up it is- is actually a benefit to Bernie by splitting the moderate vote. There is no debate there. None. Its objective fact...and he won't cop to it.


I see you guys go back and forth still and I just shake my head. Might as well write "establishment...clinton...post-partisan..." on the wall and debate that.

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:16 PM

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23. "Well I mean - he's no Amy Klobuchar"
In response to Reply # 21


          


>Dude really thinks Bernie transcends partisan politics. In
>Amerikkka. In 2020.

Not all of us are able to rock with a revolutionary candidate as bold as Amy Klobuchar.

Please - lead us Stadiq!


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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:24 PM

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25. "I've found it really frustrating to read his exchanges with some people."
In response to Reply # 21
Mon Feb-03-20 01:25 PM by Brew

          

Reeq most noticeably obviously because they have it out on this board often.

Cause on more than one occasion Reeq has provided receipts of prior posts to show that Vex is blatantly wrong about, for example, "never criticizing" Biden, or establishment Dems, etc. that sort of stuff.

Then in like the very next post, within days and sometimes hours ! Vex comes back and makes the same exact claim against him lol.

Then he has the audacity to call into question *Reeq's* objectivity.

It's wild. Cause other than these exchanges I tend to agree with a lot of Vex's positions and general political ideologies.

----------------------------------------

"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:30 PM

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28. "Just want to be clear on this:"
In response to Reply # 25
Mon Feb-03-20 01:44 PM by Vex_id

          

>Cause on more than one occasion Reeq has provided receipts of
>prior posts to show that Vex is blatantly wrong about, for
>example, "never criticizing" Biden, or establishment Dems,
>etc. that sort of stuff.

My claim was that Reeq's analysis is disproportionately targeted against Sanders and his supporters - not that he never criticizes anyone else, ever. He clearly has talked about virtually every candidate in this process - but if you look at his post count, for every 1 post criticizing Biden (or someone else) - there are at least 5 posts going at Sanders.

And that's perfectly ok. It's fine to criticize Sanders the most if you feel his candidacy warrants it. But you then don't get to act like you're an equal-opportunity critic who calls everyone out in equitable fashion.


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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:38 PM

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32. "thanks for admitting this is about me being critical of sanders."
In response to Reply # 28


          

thats what youre crusading against.

that i criticize him too much compared to other candidates.

  

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Vex_id
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35. "I definitely admit my biases. And yes - 2016 left a mark."
In response to Reply # 32


          

You have to understand that for me personally - I have worked with two campaigns in the past 4 years that have been lambasted and ostracized by party power brokers. Having been in early primary states for these campaigns, what I've observed from the party infrastructure is very real bias (and I can share many examples) - so I am extra inclined to push back against claims that the party has more or less acted as a neutral arbiter/official. My actual experience with the party on the ground has taught me just the opposite.

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Feb-03-20 03:02 PM

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45. "i feel you. the party machine treated sanders shittily in 2016."
In response to Reply # 35


          

i actually wanted everyone like clinton, donna b, debbie w-s to fade into bolivian (c) iron mike. at the very least to give the impression that the shit they did was unacceptable and there was no chance of it happening again going forward because the party was turning the corner. i didnt want bernie to run again either just because i knew his association with 2020 would inevitably drag 2016 along with it.

even tho i think sanders supporters go overboard with the persecution conspiracies sometimes...the mainstream party isnt doing enough to allay their fears and olive branch the whole situation. shit like the dccc blacklist, clinton repeatedly popping up to trash sanders and/or his supporters, etc is completely counterproductive and only serves to keep those wounds open. its really idiotic for anyone who claims to want to unify the party and defeat trump/repubs.

we (on here, twitter, etc) can all fight it out if we want to. our leaders should actually start displaying some leadership tho.

  

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Vex_id
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47. "There definitely is a victim complex among Sanders supporters"
In response to Reply # 45


          

And I have to check some fellow supporters (and myself at times) for going too far with it -- but I also recognize that it's a very human response to have after being wronged.

It'd be different if there was an actual apology and acknowledgement of wrongdoing - and then a demonstrated change in behavior. But there's really been none of that. At the bare minimum - there should be just a heightened emphasis on fairness and neutrality.

I'm certainly not interested in constantly re-litigating 2016 (even though it was never actually litigated in the first place) - but when you see people like Hillary herself re-opening the wounds - and not being checked at all by party leaders - and then you see the Dem Super Pac commercials singling out Sanders as if he's the opponent (and not Trump) - it's very hard to just hold one's tongue and act like everything is above board and fair.

>we (on here, twitter, etc) can all fight it out if we want to.
> our leaders should actually start displaying some leadership
>tho.

Fam when I look at some of the people in leadership positions who are supposed to be bringing us together to defeat Trump - it's hard to have a lot of faith.


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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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51. "fam i pray to God we can unify and turn out in full force."
In response to Reply # 47


          

but we have like 6 more months of this potentially worsening up into the convention.

i just hope the results are non-controversial and people accept them without a bunch of fuckery. if bernie is set to win...i hope the party doesnt do some blatant dumb shit as a hail mary to try to block him. if someone else is set to win...i hope bernie folks acknowledge they were a better candidate.

honestly...solely on the issues/candidates...this primary is relatively non-confrontational and less bitter than dems in 2008 or even repubs in 2016. i mean...in 2008 they basically said obama might be a foreigner and had a good chance to get assassinated lmaooo (crazy to think back on it). and in 2016...repubs were talking about dicks and wives...one candidate refused to attend the convention in his own state (governor) and another candidate basically just went there to tell everyone to conscientiously vote for someone other than their own nominee lol.

  

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Vex_id
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54. "Likewise. "
In response to Reply # 51


          

I actually think there are multiple candidates who can defeat Trump in the race. The one thing that could mess it up is to unnecessarily incite controversy by trying to reach an outcome that isn’t consistent with the will of the primary voters.

Let’s hope there is none of that at play 6 months from now - because while I think multiple candidates can defeat Trump - the margin for error is small.


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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
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33. "Haha have you actually counted this ?"
In response to Reply # 28


          

>My claim was that Reeq's analysis is disproportionately
>targeted against Sanders and his supporters - not that he
>never criticizes anyone else, ever. He clearly has talked
>about virtually every candidate in this process - but if you
>look at his post count, for every 1 post criticizing Biden (or
>someone else) - there are at least 5 posts going at Sanders.

Cause if not you're just hurling out baseless accusations, and that was the entire point of my post. That you've done this before, been proven wrong, *admitted* you were wrong, then went about making the same exact baseless accusations like minutes later.

It's really weird. And calls into question *your* objectivity, which is already really flimsy re: Bernie.

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Vex_id
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37. "RE: Haha have you actually counted this ?"
In response to Reply # 33


          


>Cause if not you're just hurling out baseless accusations, and
>that was the entire point of my post. That you've done this
>before, been proven wrong, *admitted* you were wrong, then
>went about making the same exact baseless accusations like
>minutes later.

I'm certainly not incapable of being wrong. As you pointed out, I admitted I was wrong about Reeq's analysis in 2016. But are you saying that he critiques other candidates as frequently as he's critiqued Sanders and his supporters in the past year?

>It's really weird. And calls into question *your* objectivity,
>which is already really flimsy re: Bernie.

Oh, I'll be the first to say that I'm not objective when it comes to Sanders. I'm a very vocal supporter of Sanders and am biased towards his candidacy, for sure.

Alike, I just wish others would admit their biases.


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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
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Mon Feb-03-20 02:54 PM

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41. "First of all, being "objective" doesn't mean being equally ..."
In response to Reply # 37


          

>I'm certainly not incapable of being wrong. As you pointed
>out, I admitted I was wrong about Reeq's analysis in 2016.
>But are you saying that he critiques other candidates as
>frequently as he's critiqued Sanders and his supporters in the
>past year?

... critical and equally complimentary of every candidate. So I fundamentally reject the premise of your question right off the bat. Because even if he or anyone else *were* more often critical of Sanders than they were other candidates, that alone doesn't necessarily mean that their analysis isn't objective.

But I'll humor you anyway: no, I'm not saying he critiques other candidates as frequently as he's critiqued Sanders. Nor am I saying the opposite. I'm saying that I'm not sure who he critiques more - and neither do you - because I didn't go and thoroughly analyze his post data to determine if that's actually true. And neither did you. And again, that was my point.


>>It's really weird. And calls into question *your*
>objectivity,
>>which is already really flimsy re: Bernie.
>
>Oh, I'll be the first to say that I'm not objective when it
>comes to Sanders. I'm a very vocal supporter of Sanders and
>am biased towards his candidacy, for sure.
>
>Alike, I just wish others would admit their biases.

... which brings me to this. You have a tendency to get defensive anytime anyone criticizes Sanders about anything. So your accusations of anti-Sanders bias, as proven time and time again with evidence, have more to do with *your* own bias *for* Sanders than it does anyone else's bias against him. It clearly taints your ability to properly interpret the things you read because all of your responses have a built-in, pro-Bernie agenda before you even type the first word.

So asking others to "admit their biases" is disingenuous, especially after you've been taken to task more than once - with evidence - over your inaccurate assessments of their "biases"

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Vex_id
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46. "Well that's interesting."
In response to Reply # 41


          

Here's the main point here: If you're assessing the current Democratic party and its problems - and the disproportionate amount of your criticism is aimed at Bernie Sanders - then yea I'm questioning not just your objectivity, but your ability to diagnose what's actually happening within the party.

>But I'll humor you anyway: no, I'm not saying he critiques
>other candidates as frequently as he's critiqued Sanders. Nor
>am I saying the opposite. I'm saying that I'm not sure who he
>critiques more - and neither do you - because I didn't go and
>thoroughly analyze his post data to determine if that's
>actually true. And neither did you. And again, that was my
>point.

Eh ok. It's not really hard to get a grasp on what the regular posters here post - but I suppose we all can just claim the objective high-ground if your stance is basically, "well we don't really know what everyone posts - and neither do you."

>So asking others to "admit their biases" is disingenuous,
>especially after you've been taken to task more than once -
>with evidence - over your inaccurate assessments of their
>"biases"

You just claimed that you don't "thoroughly analyze post data" - but now all of a sudden you can account for "multiple" instances of a poster being taken to task - "with evidence"? Lol. So apparently you do actually analyze post data that thoroughly? Which is it?

But I'll play the game. Please cite these multiple examples of being taken to task as per your above statement.


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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
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Mon Feb-03-20 03:31 PM

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49. "RE: Well that's interesting."
In response to Reply # 46


          

>Eh ok. It's not really hard to get a grasp on what the
>regular posters here post - but I suppose we all can just
>claim the objective high-ground if your stance is basically,
>"well we don't really know what everyone posts - and neither
>do you."

You're right, it's not really hard to grasp what regular posters on here post about. So I'm comfortable in my assessment that your bias is blinding you since so many others have obviously noticed it, too, and called you on it. In this very post even.


>You just claimed that you don't "thoroughly analyze post data"
> - but now all of a sudden you can account for "multiple"
>instances of a poster being taken to task - "with evidence"?
>Lol. So apparently you do actually analyze post data that
>thoroughly? Which is it?
>
>But I'll play the game. Please cite these multiple examples of
>being taken to task as per your above statement.

There's a big difference between: "for every 1 anti-dem post, he makes 5 anti-Bernie posts" (<--you), and highlighting the fact that you've been taken to task "more than once" (my actual words, I didn't say "multiple" so that's an interesting usage of quotes there) - which you've admitted to ! - due to your own biases (<--me). "More than once" could mean, y'know, twice. And you've already admitted to the main instance I'm referring to. So no I won't go find the other example(s) right now, but if I happen to come upon it I'll be sure to come back and link you to it.

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Vex_id
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53. "Fam, multiple just means more than one lol "
In response to Reply # 49
Mon Feb-03-20 04:09 PM by Vex_id

          

Let’s not make everything into an argument - which tends to be the case too often here.

We should also realize that when discussing politics - we are in the arena of opinion - and often strongly held opinion. As such, many are far more interested in scoring points than they are engaging productively - and we all are guilty of going after a poster/perspective simply because we disagree with the offered opinion in question.

So when you refer to the same group of people here who tend to always disagree with one’s politics (as if that’s somehow proof of something) - it’s tough to make a serious claim of objectivity.


  

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Brew
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55. "Yea I actually almost came back to concede that point haha."
In response to Reply # 53
Mon Feb-03-20 04:19 PM by Brew

          

Re: multiple vs. more than once. But stepped away from my computer before I did. My B.

But anyway, "let's not make everything into an argument" was kinda why I stepped in in the first place. Your constant declarations that others are too hard on Bernie are not only typically untrue but they're wholly unproductive. You've said it yourself many times, we're all on the same team here so we all (myself included) need to be more careful about pointing fingers in the wrong directions.

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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48. "to be honest/fair"
In response to Reply # 41


          

i just assume i criticize sanders more in terms of total posts. simply cuz i discuss him more (hes more relevant than other candidates in the convos we have).

but if we did a positive/negative post ratio analysis or some shit...i dont think ive ever said a single positive thing about bloomberg. just trashed him. i almost universally trash biden now outside of detailing his polling/appeal to *other* voters. and i pretty much dismissed mayor pete as a lost cause once he made his 'heel turn'.

you know whats weird..we have thinkpieces about voters of other candidates who have jumped ship. but nobody ever talks about (or attempts to dissect) disaffected sanders voters who left the fold for one reason or another.

like nobody is asking why a candidate with the same level of name id as trump...a national party infrastructure carried over from the previous election...and a massive fundraising advantage...isnt the undisputed front runner vs a bunch of national newcomers and someone who was overwhelmingly rejected the last 2 times he ran for president.

  

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Brew
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Mon Feb-03-20 03:33 PM

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50. "Yes I was going to say that ..."
In response to Reply # 48
Mon Feb-03-20 03:36 PM by Brew

          

... if someone were *actually* crazy enough to analyze post data, there's probably a lot of people who have more anti-Bernie posts than anti-dem party posts in terms of pure volume. But it's more nuanced than that, because I think most of us, if not all of us, are in agreement that the dem party is a mess and has a lot of inherent internal issues. But not everyone's in total agreement about Bernie in terms of his chances in 2020, so naturally there'd be more posts from a lot of people about him because there's more to discuss/parse out.


>i just assume i criticize sanders more in terms of total
>posts. simply cuz i discuss him more (hes more relevant than
>other candidates in the convos we have).
>
>but if we did a positive/negative post ratio analysis or some
>shit...i dont think ive ever said a single positive thing
>about bloomberg. just trashed him. i almost universally
>trash biden now outside of detailing his polling/appeal to
>*other* voters. and i pretty much dismissed mayor pete as a
>lost cause once he made his 'heel turn'.
>
>you know whats weird..we have thinkpieces about voters of
>other candidates who have jumped ship. but nobody ever talks
>about (or attempts to dissect) disaffected sanders voters who
>left the fold for one reason or another.
>
>like nobody is asking why a candidate with the same level of
>name id as trump...a national party infrastructure carried
>over from the previous election...and a massive fundraising
>advantage...isnt the undisputed front runner vs a bunch of
>national newcomers and someone who was overwhelmingly rejected
>the last 2 times he ran for president.

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:52 PM

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38. "lol"
In response to Reply # 33


  

          


>Cause if not you're just hurling out baseless accusations, and
>that was the entire point of my post. That you've done this
>before, been proven wrong, *admitted* you were wrong, then
>went about making the same exact baseless accusations like
>minutes later.
>


He wanted to prove your point was true by providing an example.

---------------------------
Signature

  

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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
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42. "Hahaha."
In response to Reply # 38


          

>He wanted to prove your point was true by providing an
>example.

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:28 AM

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7. "the irony is killing me."
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

2016 GOP: Donald Trump can't be real, he can't get the nomination.

2016 GOP voters: -keep picking Trump-

2016 GOP: welp, might as well run him in the general

2020 Dems: ANYONE BUT BERNIE

2020 Dem voters: TBD

2020 Dems: ANYONE BUT BERNIE, ANYONE BUT BERNIE, WE'LL EVEN BRING JOHN KERRY BACK. ANYONE BUT BERNIE


it's funny how the GOP eventually tolerated Trump even though they greatly disliked him (in public)

Dems are getting desperate over Bernie getting the nom. And no votes have even been cast yet. already changing rules, putting stonewallers in place.

It's their own motherfuckin fault if 1968 happens again.

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

Jays | Cavs | Eagles | Sabres | Tarheels

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:46 PM

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34. "wheres john edwards?"
In response to Reply # 7


  

          

how about howard dean?

tim kaine?

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:21 PM

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24. "Obama isn't walking through that door"
In response to Reply # 4
Mon Feb-03-20 01:22 PM by Stadiq

          



I don't think there is/was some sinister plan to take down Bernie or Liz.

I do think that many clearly underestimated Bernie.


But also, the moderate candidates have not been very good. Just straight up.

Weekend at Bidens is actually doing a lot better than I thought it would, but he's still a mess.

Pete clearly wasn't ready for the big leagues.

Kamala should have picked a lane and been consistent.

Booker should have been more bold (somehow) to breakthrough.

Beto never seemed to have a purpose until gun control, and then it was too late and he probably took that too far for America.


I don't think this is a sign of there not being a "plan" to stop Bernie, just that other candidates are pretty poor when you think about it.

Even if I was a moderate, I couldn't get excited about any of those folks I don't think.


The Bloomberg thing is weird. He is only helping Bernie at this point.

I still think Bloomberg is using the Dems right now. If Bernie is the nom, I think stop and frisk runs 3rd party. I hope I'm wrong, but that's the only thing that makes sense.


Whats funny though? I think the Dems created the Bernie monster by not running an actual primary in 2016. If Liz, Booker, Biden etc run in 2016, I think Bernie is probably Ron Paul status at best. Just a fringe dude that many people ignore outside of like 10%.

But because he was the only one willing to actually primary Hillary, who was already disliked, a lot of people listened.

They (meaning all the Dems who were good soldiers and sat out in 2016) gave Bernie a chance to be heard and taken seriously.


  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
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36. "^^^^ "
In response to Reply # 24


  

          

>Whats funny though? I think the Dems created the Bernie
>monster by not running an actual primary in 2016. If Liz,
>Booker, Biden etc run in 2016, I think Bernie is probably Ron
>Paul status at best. Just a fringe dude that many people
>ignore outside of like 10%.

and we all know why they didn't run an actual primary. the goal was to crown Hillary after Obama's time was up. before Bernie got in there, Hillary's "competition" was a row of also-rans. It didn't help that the Obama promises were not even kept (partly due to the GOP losing their entire shit about him being elected), and some situations actually were made worse.

Regardless of that, both Biden and Warren should have run in 2016. Maybe even Booker. then it would have been a real fight. Now we've had 3 years of Trump and political shifts that makes Bernie not only no longer a novelty, but a possible front runner.

of course, they could have tried to position someone to be a true Obama successor.

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

Jays | Cavs | Eagles | Sabres | Tarheels

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Vex_id
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39. "That's my biggest issue with how the Party functioned in '16:"
In response to Reply # 36


          


>of course, they could have tried to position someone to be a
>true Obama successor.

Aside from the blatant and egregious field clearing to pave a way for Clinton - they failed to capitalize on the momentum that was built up from Obama's tenure. Obama had his faults, but he did plant some Progressive seeds that could've been capitalized on by a true successor. Clinton was a step looking backwards at what's already been (and often been a failure) instead of instituting real succession planning for the party.


-->

  

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reaction
Member since Aug 09th 2019
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Mon Feb-03-20 02:57 PM

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44. "RE: Obama isn't walking through that door"
In response to Reply # 24


          

>I don't think there is/was some sinister plan to take down
>Bernie

I notice nobody ever comments on this https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/bernie-sanders-democratic-party.html

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:41 AM

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8. "what are your predictions?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

has anyone participated in one?

based on polling bernie and biden would get the most votes on the first round right? then after that it might get unpredictable. i would guess amy's would be the biggest voters that would need to realign after the first round. i could see that splitting roughly 50% warren and then 25% biden and pete.

biden, bernie, warren and pete are the only ones getting delegates in iowa right?

what time should we expect the results to come in?

  

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Vex_id
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10. "My prediction: It'll be a mess."
In response to Reply # 8


          

Iowa has always been laden with administrative issues - and it'll be even more complicated this year with turnout expected to be higher than ever.

I doubt that there will be enough voter registration forms. The lines will be egregiously long. It'll be cold, many elder voters will be waiting in the cold for hours. The caucus itself will be chaotic. There probably won’t be enough preference cards for caucus-goers to fill in their favorite presidential contenders. There are new "realignment" rules in play that will likely anger voters across the board.

There will be miscounts/poor reporting - and multiple campaigns will try to claim victory before we actually know what the final results will be.

>what time should we expect the results to come in?

Results should start coming in by 7 pm - and will go well into the morning before we get a sense of things.


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mista k5
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Mon Feb-03-20 12:07 PM

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16. "do you think the results are in question?"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

that the final results wont be an accurate reflection of voters?

  

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Vex_id
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19. "I think the results (whatever they may be) will be disputed "
In response to Reply # 16


          

and used to spin narratives - in every direction.

The way the Iowa Caucus is set up allows for multiple interpretations of the results (particularly with such a varied field like this).

I think there'll be several takeaways:

(1) I think Pete is the clear darkhorse here. He has invested a lot in Iowa and it's his best shot at an early win - he should do well (top 3). If he doesn't do well, his campaign will likely flare out - and fast. He's not positioned to do all that well in New Hampshire, will do poorly in South Carolina - and will not win Nevada or California. He needs Iowa more than any other top candidate.

(2) Sanders has the clear momentum - but will see if he gets enough support on the ground in Iowa to claim a decisive victory. I think he'll have a strong showing in Iowa, but just how strong remains to be seen. That said, the pressure isn't really on him to win Iowa - he just needs to do well, because he's strongly positioned to win New Hampshire and will have real momentum continuing into Super Tuesday

(3) Biden has a lot at stake in Iowa. If he does poorly (4th place finish) - I think his campaign goes into panic, donors (the ones that are left) will jettison ship, and after he loses big in New Hampshire - his stock will continue to plummet even in South Carolina. All along, I've thought Biden's strength as a front-runner was a farce. Now we'll see

(4) Warren needs a strong Iowa showing as well - but she will be able to stick around for a while as she seems to be in a pretty sturdy 3rd place in a lot of states. That said, she will have to pull off some wins somewhere - and I don't really see where she can do that right now.

(5) Very curious to see where the Yang/Tulsi anti-Establishment votes start to ferry over to. All indications seem to point to Yang/Tulsi voters going to Bernie - which would be a very significant bump for him in the polls - particularly in the early states while the other top candidates remain in the race.


-->

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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113. "did you think it would be THIS big of a mess?? lol"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

i expected some trouble but not this.

i feel like i need to apologize to amy, she actually has a fighting chance.

how did basically all polls have biden polling so high?

  

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Vex_id
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169. "I expected the Caucus to be its usual mess"
In response to Reply # 113


          

and with the added realignment rule change - felt it would be an even bigger debacle than it was in previous primaries.

But what I didn't expect is an app named "Shadow" (lol @ the name btw) would insert itself into this debacle, malfunction, and feature associations with Pete/Hillary for America and Establishment stalwarts lol.

I mean, at this point this is just like a Netflix Original Series script playing out.

>i expected some trouble but not this.
>
>i feel like i need to apologize to amy, she actually has a
>fighting chance.

Amy was always going to do fairly well in Iowa. Baby Boomer Midwesterners tend to love her - and there's a real attraction to moderates in Iowa at the moment - which is also why Pete did well.

But both Pete and Amy had regional advantages given their home-base.

>how did basically all polls have biden polling so high?

I've been calling out the Biden polls for a year now. Always thought they were a facade. His abysmal finish in Iowa is devastating, but not surprising to me.


-->

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
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Mon Feb-03-20 01:30 PM

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27. "i cant believe in 2020 we still use caucuses"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

this aint the 1800s no more.

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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Vex_id
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31. "And if you didn't think it was complicated enough"
In response to Reply # 27


          

Enjoy the new "realignment" rules this year lol.
-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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43. "People still churn their butter in Iowa"
In response to Reply # 27


          

Ionno wtf is going on with these caucuses... I’ll just wait til it’s over.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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58. "They're over here counting raised hands like it's 3rd grade lol"
In response to Reply # 27
Mon Feb-03-20 08:47 PM by PimpTrickGangstaClik

          

It just doesn't feel like a serious/official thing. Feels almost like it's for play

I'd put my hand back up and try to get counted three or four times.

_______________________________________

  

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naame
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52. "did anything come of your study of the hollywood/academia/politics"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

connection?

America has imported more warlord theocracy from Afghanistan than it has exported democracy.

  

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Vex_id
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56. "I think you missed the reply in the post where we were discussing it "
In response to Reply # 52


          

I’ll try to find it later today. Pretty fascinating investigative reporting.
-->

  

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naame
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192. "man i referenced it last week!"
In response to Reply # 56


  

          

I was hoping there was a story in rolling stone or something

America has imported more warlord theocracy from Afghanistan than it has exported democracy.

  

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Vex_id
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57. "Fireworks early on MSNBC (Jason Johnson v. Nina Turner)"
In response to Reply # 0


          

On MSNBC - Dr. Jason Johnson just tried to come for Nina Turner by trying to check her when she referred to Michael Bloomberg as an "oligarch."

For Mr. Johnson: Here's the literal definition of an oligarch:

"Oligarch: a very rich business leader with a great deal of political influence." Source: Oxford Dictionary

So - how is Bloomberg *not* an oligarch by its very definition?

Not sure why Johnson got so offended by Turner referencing Bloomberg as an oligarch and felt the need to play such fervent defense.

-->

  

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rawsouthpaw
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61. "ahh man i'd love to see that"
In response to Reply # 57


  

          

  

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rawsouthpaw
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67. "here's a link... pretty funny to see him jump up for bloomberg"
In response to Reply # 61


  

          

https://www.thedailybeast.com/msnbc-panel-flips-out-after-bernie-sanders-adviser-nina-turner-calls-bloomberg-an-oligarch

  

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Dr Claw
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98. "a MOTHERFUCKING EMBARRASSMENT."
In response to Reply # 57


  

          

  

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Teknontheou
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126. "The white people were all terrified to jump in."
In response to Reply # 98


  

          

  

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Vex_id
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59. "It's ridiculously early - but thus far it doesn't look good for Biden"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Also noteworthy: the average age of the Iowa Democratic Caucus voter seems be significantly lower than in previous cycles - which is very bad news for Biden.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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60. "turnout seems to be ridiculously high."
In response to Reply # 0


          

thats a great sign for dems if true and prolly the most important takeaway.

the delegate awarding system is too complicated to me (and even more complicated with the new method) so im not even sure what the candidate tallies will actually tell us.

but overall turnout will tell us a lot about how we should fare in the state in november.

  

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Reeq
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"nvm looks like turnout was pretty low."


          

on par with 2016 and not the massive turnout in 2008.

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1224541132631281665

theres also been a big decline in people who say theyre attending a caucus for the 1st time.

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1224521988003246080

these are big warning signs.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
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62. "CNN keeps talking about quality control as cause for delay"
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://media.giphy.com/media/FPKpAtj49ixIk/giphy.gif

_______________________________________

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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63. "FU Iowa"
In response to Reply # 0


          

grow up and run a real primary.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Reeq
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64. "seems like the feedback about the experience from caucusers"
In response to Reply # 0


          

is largely negative. it sounds like the caucus setup might actually dissuade people from participating in politics.

i wouldnt be surprised if this was the last time dems did this shit.

  

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legsdiamond
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65. "Shit is embarrassing "
In response to Reply # 64


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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66. "all this for a contest that is gonna be decided by like 2 delegates."
In response to Reply # 65
Mon Feb-03-20 11:17 PM by Reeq

          

silver lining: the iowa caucuses prolly killed the iowa caucuses.

  

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legsdiamond
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68. "Amy is first to speak. Does she always sound like this? "
In response to Reply # 66


          

or an I tripping?

She sounds like she got bad news from early results.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Cam
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70. "She does "
In response to Reply # 68
Mon Feb-03-20 11:26 PM by Cam

  

          

Her lone celebrity endorsement, is from her dad.
He’s a celebrity because—he’s her dad.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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114. "lol"
In response to Reply # 70


  

          

>Her lone celebrity endorsement, is from her dad.
>He’s a celebrity because—he’s her dad.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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72. "yeah she always sounds whiney."
In response to Reply # 68


          

i thought it was a pretty smart move on her part to get out in front of the cameras during the downtime and get some national coverage.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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74. "Lmao.. she sounded shaky. "
In response to Reply # 72


          







****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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71. "Yea - unfortunately my thinking that it would be an absolute mess"
In response to Reply # 64


          

is proving to be the case.

0% in and it's almost midnight?

This isn't good.


-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:32 PM

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73. "you know who fought hard to keep the caucuses right? ;)"
In response to Reply # 71


          

  

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legsdiamond
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75. "Lmao.. no, but I have a feeling now. "
In response to Reply # 73
Mon Feb-03-20 11:36 PM by legsdiamond

          

Depending on an app they never used before.

Dumb asses.

Biden looks like shit. His wife looks miserable.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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77. "1st world nation with a 3rd world voter system."
In response to Reply # 75


          

white people and their damn 'tradition'.

  

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Vex_id
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79. "Tom Perez who vowed to keep it in place?"
In response to Reply # 73


          


-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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82. "*cough*"
In response to Reply # 79
Tue Feb-04-20 12:25 AM by Reeq

          

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1224547487400120320

https://twitter.com/DanteAtkins/status/1224544654386962432

flashback to 2017 sanders team on unity commission:
https://twitter.com/jjz1600/status/936028159329423360
https://twitter.com/OurRevolution/status/939531145234079745
https://twitter.com/NomikiKonst/status/901168408863141893
https://twitter.com/NomikiKonst/status/901912687461982208
https://twitter.com/janekleeb/status/924659910088056832


fyi im not sure how tom perez could 'vow to keep' caucuses when he wasnt on the unity commission that ultimately decided the rules:
https://democrats.org/unity-reform-commission-members/

  

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Vex_id
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83. "So what are you saying? The Caucus unfairly benefits Sanders?"
In response to Reply # 82


          

That would certainly be a new and novel argument lol.

>fyi im not sure how tom perez could 'vow to keep' caucuses
>when he wasnt on the unity commission that ultimately decided
>the rules:
>https://democrats.org/unity-reform-commission-members/

When Perez was campaigning for his post in 2017, he got the Iowa delegation to switch its support to him after pledging to protect Iowa’s Caucus and FIN status.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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89. "*cough*"
In response to Reply # 83


          

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1224562105480892417
——-
.@edokeefe points out that the delay in #IowaCaucuses results comes from new rules that were intended to add more transparency after the 2016 race: "What is happening tonight is exactly what Bernie Sanders asked for"
——-

not only did team sanders fight to keep caucuses...they fought to install the new process that completely ratfucked the reporting of the results.

aint even in power yet and already looking like the sloppy administering of government services in a socialist nation (lol jk but somebody is gonna use that talking point).

  

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Vex_id
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90. "so now it’s #BerniesFault? Lmao "
In response to Reply # 89


          

Nah fam - this is on Iowa and Iowa alone.

#NotLikeThis
-->

  

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Rjcc
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69. "(not really clear on the definition of a caucus, or oligarch)"
In response to Reply # 0


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:37 PM

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76. "Gotdamn.. Biden looks like he is about to die. "
In response to Reply # 0


          

I can’t believe this dude has a legit shot.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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80. "His campaign sure is."
In response to Reply # 76


          


-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Feb-03-20 11:50 PM

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78. "we follow this clusterfuck with the trump state of the union tomorrow."
In response to Reply # 0


          

if i wasnt worried that nazi roundups might start at some point while i wasnt paying...id prolly take off politics until after the convention.

  

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Vex_id
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81. ""Acute failures" ? "Inconsistent Results" ?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

The app failed? Backup system failed?

lol. At a time when confidence in our election integrity is on the downward slope - this is the last thing we needed.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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84. "p booty already claiming victory."
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1224564406027157505
-----
Pete Buttigieg seems to be declaring victory even though we don't have any official results from the #IowaCaucuses.

"Tonight an improbable hope became an undeniable reality...By all indications, we are going onto New Hampshire victorious."
-----

i assume all campaigns have precinct level results/data since theyre publicly counting 'votes' in the tens. he might still be bullshitting though.

iono.

either way...dude could do real well in these super white early states and get completely blown out once the states with them neegras and essays hit.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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85. "trump has claimed victory too smh."
In response to Reply # 84


          

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1224550106462138368
-----
Big WIN for us in Iowa tonight. Thank you!
-----


never seen a human being so thirsty for applause.

  

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Vex_id
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86. "I’ll wait for Lurkmode’s outrage"
In response to Reply # 84


          


-->

  

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
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Tue Feb-04-20 11:59 AM

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125. "My outrage is directed at Bernie"
In response to Reply # 86


  

          

from reply 82


https://twitter.com/markos/status/1224547487400120320

https://twitter.com/DanteAtkins/status/1224544654386962432

flashback to 2017 sanders team on unity commission:
https://twitter.com/jjz1600/status/936028159329423360
https://twitter.com/OurRevolution/status/939531145234079745
https://twitter.com/NomikiKonst/status/901168408863141893
https://twitter.com/NomikiKonst/status/901912687461982208
https://twitter.com/janekleeb/status/924659910088056832


The majority white red state going first is bad enough, The Bern made it worse.

---------------------------
Signature

  

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Vex_id
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148. "Clearly. #BerniesFault #ThanksBernard"
In response to Reply # 125


          


-->

  

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Vex_id
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87. "Iowa has forfeited its right to be First In The Nation tonight "
In response to Reply # 0


          

This is an unforgivable sin in primary politics. You can’t be First In Nation and fail *this* badly at administrating the results.

This should be the death of the Iowa Caucus as FIN status.
-->

  

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Vex_id
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88. "Iowa the first test case for 2020 Election Security (NYT)"
In response to Reply # 0
Tue Feb-04-20 01:24 AM by Vex_id

          

Yikes! You can’t make this up.

Via NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/us/politics/iowa-caucuses-hacking-security.html

In November, Iowa’s Democratic and Republican Parties teamed up with the Defending Digital Democracy Project at Harvard to run a drill of worst-case scenarios. The event, led by Robby Mook, the campaign manager for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Eric Rosenbach, a former chief of staff at the Pentagon, featured a fire drill of sorts, designed by future Defense Department officers.

“We ran them through the ringer and pushed them really hard,” Mr. Mook said. “Some were much better at managing technical issues, and some were better managing information operations and disinformation, misinformation and communicating with the public. So I think they really learned from each other, and they created some best practices for each other.”

Lol. Great job Robby.



-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Tue Feb-04-20 01:32 AM

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91. "nvm you edited lol"
In response to Reply # 88
Tue Feb-04-20 01:33 AM by Reeq

          

good move.

  

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Vex_id
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92. "Robby is denying any involvement whatsoever lol "
In response to Reply # 91


          

Unfortunately for him, NYT, WashPost and many others reported on his involvement pretty regularly over the last week. So he can’t act like he knows nothing about this.

NBC just revealed that the app is called “Shadow” and that the results were supposed to be downloaded to the personal cell phones of Iowa party officials (gee that’s not suspect at all lol).

Oh, and this company lists Hillary for America and the DNC as its clients.

This could get real ugly, fast.

Fam this is the *last* thing we needed to set off the primary.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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93. "wow a democratic digital firm has democratic clients?"
In response to Reply # 92


          

spooky.

the iowa dem party has stated its not a tech issue with the app. just the way people manually reported using the app (aka human error).

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1224557799247622145

after the conspiracy/disinfo you originally posted about robby mook being the ceo of the app firm was dispelled...that prolly shoulda been a cue for everyone to pump the brakes...not dig deeper and reach further for a new plot line.

  

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Vex_id
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94. "I envy your undying faith in our institutions "
In response to Reply # 93


          

And not sure what you’re referring to with the “conspiracy” claims.

Even NBC found the circumstances suspicious and worthy of further investigation.

But sure - let’s just move on and act like nothing went awry here? That’s helpful.
-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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96. "your original reply said robby mook was the ceo of the app company."
In response to Reply # 94
Tue Feb-04-20 02:19 AM by Reeq

          

he is not.

thats a conspiracy.

you rightfully wiped that clean from your reply and now youre already on to some other loose insinuations of foul play.

all of the actual votes/tallies were recorded on paper with all the campaigns as witnesses. the app was just for reporting those results to the state party.

just take a deep breath, slow down, hit the dugout, get some sleep, and wait for all the facts to come out.

this election is running you ragged. relax (c) aaron rodgers

  

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Vex_id
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106. "Damn my G you stalking posts now?"
In response to Reply # 96
Tue Feb-04-20 09:42 AM by Vex_id

          

And the details on who is behind the app is even worse than I thought - that’s why I waited until more details could be gathered.

You’d see that if you could hold on for a second without rushing to debunk before someone can finish a post lol.

Mook isn’t the CEO of the app company - but he did help to run cyber security audits in Iowa’s system.

Relax bro. Nothing wrong with trying to gather facts and looking into one of the biggest debacles in modern electoral history.

That an app was used to collect a few thousand data points is like me building a robot to make my bed. They could have used any number of already existing messaging apps out there.

So why did they use this one? That question needs to be answered (even if you don’t care to look into it).

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Tue Feb-04-20 09:41 AM

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110. "im stalking your posts you make in a thread we are both in?"
In response to Reply # 106


          

you ok fam?

thats a new one.

  

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Vex_id
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111. "Lol ok fam. "
In response to Reply # 110


          


-->

  

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Rjcc
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99. "there is no "we" you aren't with anyone"
In response to Reply # 92


          

there is no version of bernie not winning that you would think is legitimate. if he comes out 2nd or lower we already know what it will be from you and it won't matter how many pieces of paper they have


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Vex_id
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109. "Well - I’m certainly not with you "
In response to Reply # 99


          

That’s a fact.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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95. "all indications are that biden got trounced in the final count tally."
In response to Reply # 0


          

did around klobuchar numbers.

bernies campaign released their internal result from 40% of reporting precincts (take from that what you will). shows bernie-pete-liz 1-2-3.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP6TWckX4AEnLCA?format=jpg&name=900x900

  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
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Tue Feb-04-20 02:38 AM

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97. "for a political party..."
In response to Reply # 0
Tue Feb-04-20 02:39 AM by Dr Claw

  

          

...that needs to be focusing its efforts in restoring the provisions of the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act, combating the bullshit the GOP has been perpetrating since 2008, they instead build "apps" to face an "international interference" propagandist fairytale and cause CONFUSION OVER A FUCKIN CAUCUS.

Count the votes, stop the "innovation". Jesus Christ.
Motherfuckers forgot to how to count JUST because of concern trolling over the outcome.

My guess, once this shakes out is that the results will be:

Sanders in front, followed by Warren and Pete. Many internal reports seemed to be pointing to that.

The big story was that Biden fell BIG TIME and was found "not viable" in many a precinct. That's one thing that seems to be consistent across the board.

This is a joke.

Much like motherfuckers like Jason Johnson and the like on TV trying to talk about how Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire who owns a fucking media outlet with his name attached and basically bought his way into a presidential election for concern troll reason, ISN'T A FUCKING OLIGARCH!

Nigga needed to show how much more that PhD was worth over a black woman who was telling the truth.

A MOTHERFUCKIN' EMBARASSMENT.

Black people out here are acting a fuckin' fool over this too.

There's nothing wrong with Iowa being #1. Clearly it just needs to be a primary, is all. After THIS fuckup. All this concern trolling is happening now because the one in front doesn't align with their myopic view.

Sick of this shit. Tired of this church.

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

Jays | Cavs | Eagles | Sabres | Tarheels

PSN: Dr_Claw_77 | XBL: Dr Claw 077 | FB: drclaw077 | T: @drclaw77 | http://thepeoplesvault.wordpress.com

  

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Rjcc
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100. "y'all should look at who runs state level political organizations"
In response to Reply # 97


          

it's always somebody's fuck up cousin who couldn't get a do-nothing job on wall street.


these things are inherently fucked. it's never conspiracy (and the people at the local levels are usually hard working competent folks) but at the state level? it's going to be all nepotism ignorance and a fair dash of corruption, that's how it works

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
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103. "absolutely. I know that in this state, it's a bunch of has-beens"
In response to Reply # 100


  

          

and also-rans for the most part. a few new faces got in the state group the last go-around. then you get to the general, and you have to deal with the robber barons elected by the people in rural areas that were swindled, whose main game is to cheat.


(that's why the "Russia" story is BS ... this set up has been around for years)

That's why to win, you have to have someone who understands the above and will find ways to subvert it. Obama did that in '08 and as such the machines noted above decided to take away all of the tools they used (ACORN, aggressive pursuit of so-called "voter fraud", etc)

  

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Vex_id
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107. "Bro this is an absolute disgrace "
In response to Reply # 97


          

We constantly cry about Russia and other boogeymen and we can’t even run a transparent and efficient election in a First In The Nation state?

Lol. The world is laughing at us - and they should be.
-->

  

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Rjcc
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151. "I have no idea who you listen to"
In response to Reply # 107


          

but literally everyone who knows anything has referenced the way different states voting systems are set up, in terms of how difficult it would be to directly manipulate results.

if you are so poorly informed that this is not something that's been clear to you then that is your issue.

you are a stupid motherfucker.

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Vex_id
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175. "yea that's deep."
In response to Reply # 151


          

We always appreciate your powerful insights, RJ.


-->

  

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Rjcc
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177. "I know you do."
In response to Reply # 175


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Tue Feb-04-20 07:01 AM

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101. "I don’t think anyone can spin Iowa into a great night"
In response to Reply # 0


          

even tho they will all try.

I really hope this is the end of Iowa starting the primaries. Not sure how many more of these I will witness but this isn’t democracy.

Who the fuck has all night to sit around a gym or farm shelter.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Tue Feb-04-20 10:09 AM

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115. "if the numbers that have been put out hold up pete did "win""
In response to Reply # 101


  

          

probably came in second but really close to bernie so thats definitely a win for pete.

warren did okay, slightly better than expected but she should be placing 1st or 2nd so its kind of an L.

bernie has to be satisfied.

if biden did this bad then maybe america won.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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155. "It’s a win if you beat your expectations"
In response to Reply # 115


          

but isn’t really a WIN as in declaring victory.

doesn’t really matter now. The whole thing feels tainted.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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bentagain
Member since Mar 19th 2008
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Tue Feb-04-20 07:57 AM

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102. "So... Bloomberg buys his way into the primary "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

The final polling data ahead of the caucus is not released due to inconsistencies

and the final caucus tallies are also withheld

But...the system is completely fair, these are just coincidences, and have nothing to do with Bern polling #1 recently

Leading in the precincts that did report

and Biden getting dragged

Right?

---------------------------------------------------------------

If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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104. "It’s def a bad look for the DNC"
In response to Reply # 102


          

one guy phoned into MSNBC from a precinct and said he was on hold for 2.5 hours trying to give his results.

Also heard someone on MSNBC say Bernie had 171 votes or people and Booty J had half that and they both received 2 delegates.

I have no idea how this caucus shit works but it sure seems much easier to game the results than one man one vote.

Biggest frustration tho is no results all night long. How in tf?

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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bentagain
Member since Mar 19th 2008
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120. "Pretty sure I could have counted every person in Iowa by now"
In response to Reply # 104


  

          

SMH

---------------------------------------------------------------

If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Tue Feb-04-20 12:37 PM

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129. "the dnc doesnt run state elections."
In response to Reply # 104


          

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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145. "It makes the party look like idiots. "
In response to Reply # 129


          

Don’t mind me, I’m just mad at myself for tuning in and actually giving af when I told myself not to give in.

I’m a sucker for election result coverage.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Nodima
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146. "This is very much an Iowa Problem, not a DNC Problem"
In response to Reply # 145


  

          

I live right next door and every few years, the people that cross the river from Council Bluffs for a night in the city start talking about how much they dread this time of year. It's always a huge mess. Remember 2012 (I wouldn't blame you if you didn't!)? Rick Santorum narrowly beat Mitt Romney, and Romney barely beat Rand Paul, but at the time the caucus results were such a mess that Romney was able to campaign that he'd won Iowa for nearly TWO WEEKS before Iowa's results were officially registered, by which time Romney had essentially convinced the country he was already the nominee.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa#Republican_caucuses

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/04/iowa-second-caucus-debacle-eight-years/

Both parties have flubbed this thing up in the past eight years because it's a stupid, out-dated system that has no place in modern society.


~~~~~~~~~
"This is the streets, and I am the trap." � Jay Bilas
http://www.popmatters.com/pm/archive/contributor/517
Hip Hop Handbook: http://tinyurl.com/ll4kzz

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Tue Feb-04-20 03:26 PM

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149. "It doesn’t really matter right now. Sure, Iowa is a shitshow"
In response to Reply # 146


          

but we’ve been waiting 4 years for this and it’s a terrible way to start an election cycle.

Now maybe HOP voters were saying the same thing in 2012 but I ain’t them so I didn’t care.

Right now, this really looks like the DNC is trying to protect Biden from an embarrassing loss and stop Bernie from giving a victory speech. Even if neither of these are true the stories are writing themselves.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Tue Feb-04-20 03:12 PM

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147. "no one cares though...it doesn't matter"
In response to Reply # 129


          


Bottom line the media, the GOP, folks who aren't engaged, and even folks who are engaged but aren't into the mechanics of who does what for the party are all going to say "the Dem party fucked up" and "Dems can't run an election" and "Dems bought an app that didn't work from a company called SHADOW" and "Dems didn't security test the software"

And they are all right.


This isn't even touching the conspiracy theories out there surrounding Bernie and Pete's relationship with the app company, etc.


The BEST version is Democrat incompetence/contradiction/heads up their own asses

Folks have been waiting a year for this. Be ready. Be over-prepared.

Splitting hairs over the DNC vs state party responsibilities isn't going to win anyone over.

Not to mention, I find it hard that the DNC isn't involved at all when it is so important. If they aren't, maybe they should be.


Not a good look either way, man.

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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Tue Feb-04-20 09:13 AM

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105. "Ranked choice voting will end this kind of nonsense..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

...Democrats look so bad right now ..it's clear they don't want progressives like Bernie or Warren in charge.








  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Tue Feb-04-20 11:23 AM

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123. "Switching to a primary would end this kind of nonsense."
In response to Reply # 105


          


Ranked-choice voting just gives people more ways to game the rules.

  

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Vex_id
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Tue Feb-04-20 09:31 AM

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108. "More details on the app used for the Iowa Caucus:"
In response to Reply # 0
Tue Feb-04-20 09:46 AM by Vex_id

          

• Tara McGowan is the CEO of Acronym. She's a Pete Buttigieg supporter, worked for Obama, and is married to Michael Halle, a strategist for Pete
• Michael Halle ran Hillary Clinton’s 2016 battleground strategy
• Acronym invested in Shadow Inc.
• Gerard Niemira (Shadow CEO), Krista Davis (Shadow CTO), James Hickey (Shadow COO), Ahna Rao (Shadow Product Manager) are all former Hillary for America staff
• Shadow Inc. developed an app that was used at the Iowa Caucus and will be used by the Nevada Caucus
• The Iowa Democratic Party, Nevada Democratic Party, and Pete For America all gave money to Shadow Inc.
• Pete Buttigieg is the only candidate to fund this app
• Greta Carnes, the former Senior Director of Organizing at Acronym is now a National Organizing Director at Pete for America. She's from South Bend, Indiana.
• Shadow Inc. follows Democratic Majority for Israel, which launched attack ads against Bernie Sanders

Oh, and Pete happened to be the only candidate who declared victory last night lol.

Coincidence theorists are out in full force today.

Yea - nothing to see here guys. Onto New Hampshire!
-->

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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112. "Unlimited ammo cheat enabled for Trump...."
In response to Reply # 108


  

          

....The DNC is fucking cancer

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Tue Feb-04-20 10:10 AM

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116. "nothing to see here"
In response to Reply # 108


  

          

  

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Numba_33
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Tue Feb-04-20 10:23 AM

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117. "That's pretty impressive for a small town mayor."
In response to Reply # 108


  

          

DiBlasio must be mighty jealous.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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Vex_id
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118. "Correction: it appears Biden donated to the app in July "
In response to Reply # 108


          

Looking through FEC disclosures right now.

What a shitshow.
-->

  

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bentagain
Member since Mar 19th 2008
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Tue Feb-04-20 10:52 AM

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121. "RE: Oh, and Pete happened to be the only candidate who declared victory ..."
In response to Reply # 108


  

          

Didn't HRC do that in 2016 too...claimed victory while they were still tallying...?

---------------------------------------------------------------

If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

  

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Vex_id
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Tue Feb-04-20 10:54 AM

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122. "RE: Oh, and Pete happened to be the only candidate who declared victory ..."
In response to Reply # 121


          

>Didn't HRC do that in 2016 too...claimed victory while they
>were still tallying...?

She sure did.

-->

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
42965 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 12:13 PM

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128. "shit. show."
In response to Reply # 108


  

          

unbelievable

DNC Ridaz got their work cut out for them today

  

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Vex_id
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Tue Feb-04-20 10:31 AM

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119. "LA Times with some good reporting here on app debacle:"
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2020-02-04/clinton-campaign-vets-behind-2020-iowa-caucus-app-snafu

-->

  

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lightworks
Member since Feb 17th 2006
5818 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 11:56 AM

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124. "Two Points"
In response to Reply # 0


          

1) Fuck Mayor Pete for declaring victory with no official results, that’s dangerous and something Trump would do

2) I hope this disaster leads to the end of caucusing, because it is silly, and this disaster proves why.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
5082 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 12:51 PM

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130. "Me: I don't think I could like Mayo Pete less"
In response to Reply # 124
Tue Feb-04-20 12:53 PM by Stadiq

          

Pete: Hold my Zima


Fuck that guy.


A Caucus is always a shit show. Starting in Iowa makes less sense by the minute too.

Then all of the confusion caused by the Dems trying to get cute and use an app (wonder how much money they wasted on that??)...


Then to top if off, I gotta watch that smug walking 12 dollar hair cut in his big brothers suit declare victory?


The best version of this story is that the Iowa Dem party wasted a bunch of money on an app AND isn't competent enough to have a paper back up system that could be tallied in a couple hours. What a terrible fucking look.

Thats the BEST version. That the Democratic party is incompetent.

Oh, and from what I gather, turnout was a lot lower than expected. Fucking yikes.

No matter who you support, this is awful.**


** I suppose its less awful if you are somehow a Biden supporter, because all of this overshadowed the fact that the "most electable Democrat" who is going to appeal to centrist whites in the midwest wasn't viable in a ton of precincts. In Iowa.



  

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Trinity444
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Tue Feb-04-20 12:07 PM

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127. "I’m paranoid..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

not sure who or what to believe anymore...

  

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naame
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194. "^^^^^"
In response to Reply # 127


  

          


America has imported more warlord theocracy from Afghanistan than it has exported democracy.

  

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Rjcc
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215. "lmk if you agree with this person, I'm trying to see something"
In response to Reply # 127


          

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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lightworks
Member since Feb 17th 2006
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131. "We are getting the “majority” of the results at 5pm."
In response to Reply # 0


          

Lol.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Tue Feb-04-20 01:02 PM

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132. "what an absolute mess"
In response to Reply # 131
Tue Feb-04-20 01:11 PM by Stadiq

          

If the consultant candidate actually won, no one is going to believe it.

If Bernie won, it looks like they robbed him of a victory speech.


Same if Warren did better than expected.


And Biden's night is being swept under the rug.


Why didn't they take the money they spent on the app and hire people who actually can run an event like this?


We've all been waiting on Iowa for a fucking year...how were they not ready?

And the Iowa Dem party hung up on their own conference call?

**Edit**

Oh, and how are you the party of "secure elections/ no Russia meddling/ we need paper backups!/ etc" AND THEN go out and buy an app...AND don't have it tested?

How??

Even if this isn't a security thing...you went out, bought an app, and didn't get it fucking security tested??

How???

You're literally in the middle the motherfuckers senate trial for messing with the election. You didn't protect your own?

How will that look in November?



  

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handle
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Tue Feb-04-20 01:29 PM

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135. "This is pretty normal in software development"
In response to Reply # 132


          

The people who came in a got the healthcare.gov site fixed were ABSOLUTE SUPERSTARS and very much not the norm.

This seems a like a failure in project management / changing requirements late in the process to me.

I've DEFINITELY BEEN THERE.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Tue Feb-04-20 01:39 PM

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138. "either way its a horrible look"
In response to Reply # 135
Tue Feb-04-20 01:48 PM by Stadiq

          

I'm not in software development, so I will defer to you (and ask for a job?).


But...my thing is-

1) The party has been making the case for safe and fair elections since 2016. Rightfully so. Don't leave any room- not an inch- to make yourselves look like hypocrites. Test that shit.

2) Have a backup plan that can be accomplished in some hours, not "50% of the results by 5" or whatever


  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Tue Feb-04-20 02:13 PM

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141. "This isn’t normal for a fucking primary bruh"
In response to Reply # 135


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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MiracleRic
Member since Oct 21st 2002
45200 posts
Wed Feb-05-20 10:56 AM

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185. "nah, this is fairly normal...hysteria just makes it seem abnormal"
In response to Reply # 141


  

          

IOWA been fucking up for decades lol

Let me sport my Air Hyperbole 2010s in peace. (c) ansomble

Building repetoires (c) spm since 1983

  

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Rjcc
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Wed Feb-05-20 04:59 PM

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216. "a lot of people don't know what happens in primaries"
In response to Reply # 185


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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Tue Feb-04-20 02:32 PM

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144. "nothing normal about this whatsoever."
In response to Reply # 135


  

          

  

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handle
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Tue Feb-04-20 03:36 PM

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150. "?????????????????????"
In response to Reply # 144


          

As someone involved in software (business analyst, qa engineer, technical writer) since the mid 1990s and can assure that shit like this happens ALL THE TIME.

And in at least 75% of cases it is brought on by the customer continually changing requirements and testing getting compressed in the schedule.

And by compressed I mean "1 month for testing" to "1 week for testing" to "1 day for testing."

You know, non-testing folks never understand any of this shit, why would you??


------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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153. "it's normal not to have results yet? "
In response to Reply # 150


  

          

...cool resume, but low tech is the way to go when it comes to elections.


  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
81265 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 04:44 PM

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156. "No one is saying an app crashing isn’t normal"
In response to Reply # 150


          

what we are saying is using an app this unstable for an election like this isn’t normal.

It may cost them their first state status.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Rjcc
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159. "stfu. you never heard of any of this shit before yesterday"
In response to Reply # 156


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
81265 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 05:49 PM

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162. "Sit your Gary Gnu ass down "
In response to Reply # 159


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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Tue Feb-04-20 09:43 PM

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176. "more unhinged Napoleon complex rants from RJ"
In response to Reply # 159


          

Please do continue.

-->

  

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Rjcc
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181. "it's funny how they turn to insults when they know the criticism is true"
In response to Reply # 176


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Rjcc
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152. "sure. what were the results of the michigan Democratic primary in '08? '..."
In response to Reply # 144


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
81265 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 04:35 PM

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154. "Michigan is trash too"
In response to Reply # 152


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Rjcc
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Tue Feb-04-20 05:33 PM

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160. "name the states that aren't trash"
In response to Reply # 154


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
132271 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 02:20 PM

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143. "just a total 'L' all around now"
In response to Reply # 132


  

          

and Trump is actually getting a boost in polls

right as he starts banning African nations from traveling to the US.

SMH

  

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reaction
Member since Aug 09th 2019
315 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 01:19 PM

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133. "Check out this magic coin toss btw Pete and Amy"
In response to Reply # 0
Tue Feb-04-20 01:46 PM by reaction

          

https://twitter.com/awzurcher/status/1224533900946485250?s=20

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
16128 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 01:24 PM

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134. "The fuck?"
In response to Reply # 133


  

          

seriously coin toss?

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
16347 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 01:29 PM

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136. "posting alt right troll accounts?"
In response to Reply # 133
Tue Feb-04-20 01:33 PM by Reeq

          

dude made his name posting/streaming hoaxes, misrepresented pics/videos, flat out fake shit, etc.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
81265 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 02:11 PM

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140. "Do you think the video is fake? "
In response to Reply # 136


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
16347 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 06:29 PM

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166. "not sure. just saying that shouldnt be your source."
In response to Reply # 140


          

  

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lightworks
Member since Feb 17th 2006
5818 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 01:32 PM

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137. "Mayor Pete’s Staffer is a Fucking Idiot:"
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://twitter.com/livposting/status/1224575659017691136?s=21

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
5082 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 01:47 PM

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139. "RE: Mayor Pete’s Staffer is a Fucking Idiot:"
In response to Reply # 137


          


LMAO!!

And for what reason? Did he think this was a flex?

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
81265 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 02:15 PM

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142. "Voter turnout was low. We are fucked. "
In response to Reply # 0


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Cam
Charter member
13289 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 05:12 PM

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157. "That 5:00 Press Conference Announcement"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Only 62% reporting so far...
Buttigieg 362.637
Sanders 337.887
Warren 246.18
Biden 210.344
Klobuchar 169.694
Yang 14.273
Steyer 3.761
Uncommitted 2.077 https://results.thecaucuses.org/

  

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handle
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Tue Feb-04-20 05:20 PM

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158. "PETE????"
In response to Reply # 157


          

>Only 62% reporting so far...
>Buttigieg 362.637
>Sanders 337.887
>Warren 246.18
>Biden 210.344
>Klobuchar 169.694
>Yang 14.273
>Steyer 3.761
>Uncommitted 2.077 https://results.thecaucuses.org/



A 38 year old navy reservist and the mayor of a small town in Indiana? (Small compared to where I live - San Diego.)

Seems light on experience to me. Seems like his Harvard and Oxford education are liegit tho.

I'll vote for him vs Trump ANY DAY.

(But no one this young has even been voted president - seems like it may be a liability.)

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
16538 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 05:44 PM

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161. "RE: That 5:00 Press Conference Announcement"
In response to Reply # 157


  

          

interesting to read the updates on 538. updates on analyzing the data, not on actual new numbers.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-caucus-2020-election-live/

  

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Mynoriti
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Tue Feb-04-20 05:54 PM

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163. "President MayorPete"
In response to Reply # 157


  

          

  

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
5417 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 06:21 PM

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164. "What ? Pete ?"
In response to Reply # 157


  

          

>Only 62% reporting so far...
>Buttigieg 362.637
>Sanders 337.887
>Warren 246.18
>Biden 210.344
>Klobuchar 169.694
>Yang 14.273
>Steyer 3.761
>Uncommitted 2.077 https://results.thecaucuses.org/

No wonder ok Bernie was going at Pete, he knew the Bern is falling short.

---------------------------
Signature

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
16347 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 06:28 PM

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165. "tulsi gabbard killing it."
In response to Reply # 157


          

  

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
5417 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 06:41 PM

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168. "lmao"
In response to Reply # 165


  

          

---------------------------
Signature

  

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Rjcc
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Tue Feb-04-20 06:40 PM

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167. "LOL. They wanted people to sideload an iPhone app"
In response to Reply # 0


          

do you know how complicated that is? of course they couldn't make it work.

it's not a conspiracy to be dumb as hell

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/iowa-caucus-shadow-app.html

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Nopayne
Member since Jan 03rd 2003
52671 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 08:50 PM

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170. "This is criminally dumb."
In response to Reply # 167


  

          

Every single part of this rollout is wrong.

---
Love,
Nopayne

  

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Rjcc
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Tue Feb-04-20 09:01 PM

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172. "even if your plan was to feign incompetence and fail on purpose"
In response to Reply # 170
Tue Feb-04-20 09:01 PM by Rjcc

          

you would accidentally get one part of it right, just because you're not a complete fucking moron like these motherfuckers

at every goddamn step they chose failure

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
132271 posts
Tue Feb-04-20 09:23 PM

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173. "sideload an *iPhone* app? "
In response to Reply # 167


  

          

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

  

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Rjcc
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178. "they weren't even using testflight."
In response to Reply # 173


          

they were using some BOOTLEG NOT-TESTFLIGHT SYSTEM

of course none of it worked

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Mr. ManC
Member since Jan 26th 2009
11819 posts
Wed Feb-05-20 11:25 AM

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187. "I *think* you meant to say "Russia" but"
In response to Reply # 167


  

          

can't tell if you are actually pointing out reasonable Democratic technical incompetence or being sarcastic right now

________________________________________________
R.I.P. Soulgyal <3
SUPA NERD LLC.
Knowledge Meets Nature
Musica Negra
#13irteen

  

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Rjcc
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217. "what?"
In response to Reply # 187


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Vex_id
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Tue Feb-04-20 08:58 PM

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171. "My Prediction Scorecard:"
In response to Reply # 0
Tue Feb-04-20 09:00 PM by Vex_id

          

Claim: "It'll be a mess. Iowa has always been laden with administrative issues - and it'll be even more complicated this year. The caucus itself will be chaotic. There are new "realignment" rules in play that will likely anger voters across the board."

Definitely true.

Claim: "There will be miscounts/poor reporting - and multiple campaigns will try to claim victory before we actually know what the final results will be."

Mostly true. Pete was the only one who definitively declared victory (prematurely) - and we still don't know what the final results are more than 24 hours later!

Claim: "I think Pete is the clear darkhorse here. He has invested a lot in Iowa and it's his best shot at an early win - he should do well. He needs Iowa more than any other top candidate."

Facts. Although I didn't know just how *much* he invested (to the tune of nearly $50k to Shadow Inc. lol)

Claim: "Sanders has the clear momentum - but will see if he gets enough support on the ground in Iowa to claim a decisive victory. I think he'll have a strong showing in Iowa, but just how strong remains to be seen. That said, the pressure isn't really on him to win Iowa - he just needs to do well, because he's strongly positioned to win New Hampshire and will have real momentum continuing into Super Tuesday."

The question of whether his ground game was as strong as it seemed to be was answered: It was. He also got a lot of realignment votes (was the second preference for ~26% of voters, that led the field (barely edging out Pete). That was a surprise.

Claim: "Biden has a lot at stake in Iowa. If he does poorly (4th place finish) - I think his campaign goes into panic, donors (the ones that are left) will jettison ship, and after he loses big in New Hampshire - his stock will continue to plummet even in South Carolina. All along, I've thought Biden's strength as a front-runner was a farce. Now we'll see."

Lol yep. Looks like he'll even finish 4th as mentioned. Dude might really be finished, already. I called out Biden's polling from the jump (have receipts), and always thought it was manufactured. I had to listen for an entire year to many here (and in my every day life) talk about Biden's "strength" - and then you'd go to a Biden event and feel the most deflated, empty vibe of all the top-tier candidates lol. The polls have never reflected his reality on the ground.

Claim: "Warren needs a strong Iowa showing as well - but she will be able to stick around for a while as she seems to be in a pretty sturdy 3rd place in a lot of states. That said, she will have to pull off some wins somewhere - and I don't really see where she can do that right now."

She finished a sturdy third place - and will likely repeat that 2nd/3rd/4th place finish in the next few states. Slow and steady will have to be her recipe - but she needs to get some W's on the board.

I like pulling the receipts. Will predict NH as well to see how I score.

-->

  

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Vex_id
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174. "Yo. Trump's really out here installing Presidents via the SOTU "
In response to Reply # 0


          

That Juan Guaidó cameo tho lol.

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Wed Feb-05-20 08:07 AM

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182. "Hold on, WHAT. He brought Guaido out?"
In response to Reply # 174


  

          

Such balls

  

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Walleye
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Wed Feb-05-20 09:20 AM

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184. "Did you see what he said about AOC?"
In response to Reply # 182


          

He pointed out that she's not really that radical and in Venezuela she'd be considered a social democrat.

I mean, fuck the CIA, especially fuck the Democrats that backed this dumb coup, and fuck their unemployed puppet king Guiado himself, but that was actually pretty funny.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/10/venezuelas-two-presidents-collide

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Vex_id
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199. "He sure did"
In response to Reply # 182


          

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lShcc8B-96E

-->

  

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handle
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Tue Feb-04-20 11:54 PM

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179. "The idiots I work with are ANTI quite a few dems"
In response to Reply # 0


          

One's early 30s, one is 40 this year.

Both will do what idiots do - not vote unless it's a candidate that get's their pussies wet.

Country is legit doomed.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Wed Feb-05-20 12:36 AM

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180. "The big takeaway: Dem candidates need to get their digital shit..."
In response to Reply # 0
Wed Feb-05-20 01:01 AM by mrhood75

  

          

...together, or else we're all fucked.

RJCC is right: This shit wasn't rigged, the app is just a piece of shit. You would have to try to make it jankier. The company tried to develop it and implement it on the cheap, and everyone is shocked, yes, SHOCKED that it was a disaster.

If there's one thing that Drumf's team was good at in 2016, it was their digital advertising/messaging. If whoever runs in the general isn't pumping a lot of resources into that area, then it's going to be a long summer/fall.

This is where Bloomberg and Steyer should really be putting their copious amounts money to help out whichever candidate runs in the general.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Wed Feb-05-20 08:26 AM

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183. "According to the article RJCC posted the Dems had the digital "
In response to Reply # 180


  

          

advantage under Obama but lost it during the 2016 Hillary campaign. Now we are desperately trying to get it back from a Trump machine that has loads of cash and is apparently much more efficient.

Umm..... help us, Bloomberg? *takes scalding hot shower*

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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204. "I remember reading an article years ago (probably in the NYT)..."
In response to Reply # 183


  

          

...about the 2012 Election, and how inept Romney's team was at the digital stuff. About how their apps were useless and didn't work, and how far Obama's team was outpacing them.

I believe it was in the same article that they talked to the head of Obama's digital team, and he said (and I'm paraphrasing here) that if the Democrats were still hiring him in 2020 or even 2016, they were in deep trouble, because of have fast the landscape is changing. I REALLY hope the Democratic candidates heed that.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

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https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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MiracleRic
Member since Oct 21st 2002
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Wed Feb-05-20 11:02 AM

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186. "i heard the price tag on this shit and guffawed loudly as fuck"
In response to Reply # 180


  

          

the conspiracy theories are so easy to reach for bc everyone becomes an expert one headline at a time lol

Let me sport my Air Hyperbole 2010s in peace. (c) ansomble

Building repetoires (c) spm since 1983

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Wed Feb-05-20 02:53 PM

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205. "My inkling of hope is that this is who the statewide DNC contracted..."
In response to Reply # 186


  

          

...and not any candidate that's running a legit campaign. Statewide organizations cut corners, hire the lowest bidder, take care of the good ol' boys, etc. Whoever gets the nomination will hopefully have more sense.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

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Rjcc
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219. "oh you know it is. "
In response to Reply # 205


          

the DNC literally told them "DON'T USE THIS APP"

but because state organizations are run by whatever local dumbfuck has some money and a connection, guess what happened

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Mr. ManC
Member since Jan 26th 2009
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Wed Feb-05-20 11:27 AM

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188. "What an absolute buttfumble."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Legit armed Trump with a narrative that Dems are just incompetent in controlling a process they fully managed, and is leaning into the Russia narrative on the day of his SOTU address before he ultimately gets acquitted from impeachment.

Fucked around a got a triple double. Themocrats should be ashamed.

________________________________________________
R.I.P. Soulgyal <3
SUPA NERD LLC.
Knowledge Meets Nature
Musica Negra
#13irteen

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
81265 posts
Wed Feb-05-20 11:32 AM

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189. "lmao @ a triple double. "
In response to Reply # 188


          

Really makes me believe the Dems are in on this shit and don’t really want to get this dude out of office.

She ripped up the speech tho. Great theatrics.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Walleye
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190. "So they put incompetent self-dealing above democracy?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

That's not a conspiracy. It's actually worse. It means the people who are leading the party and telling you that this is the most important election of our lifetime don't actually believe it. Or, rather, don't believe it to the extent that they're willing prioritize a transparent and smooth election process that chooses the best candidate over say, the party operating as a permanent jobs program for people who interned for the right congressman when they were in undergraduate.

They're not in smokey backrooms pre-ordaining a candidate because that would require actual principles. Instead, they're just completely fine with a monumental fuck-up because they suffer nothing from the Trump administration and will gleefully pursue their desire for wealth and power at the detriment of basic human necessities for working people.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/05/angry-democrats-unload-operative-over-iowa-caucus-results-110807

The divisive Democratic operative behind Shadow, the app that broke Iowa

Tara McGowan, a former Obama campaign aide who founded the digital-first Democratic outfit ACRONYM, was already a controversial figure before the Iowa caucus mess.

By MAGGIE SEVERNS

02/05/2020 09:49 AM EST

Democratic operatives have found a target for their anger and frustration over Iowa’s botched caucus results — Tara McGowan, the political strategist whose company is directly tied to the troublesome vote-reporting app at the center of the chaos.

Even before the Iowa mess, McGowan, a former journalist and Barack Obama campaign aide, was both one of the Democratic Party’s most in-demand leaders this cycle — and also one of its most divisive.

But her role in boosting the suddenly infamous Shadow, the developer of the app that played a central role in Iowa’s technical meltdown, has surfaced a new level of angst over the digital empire she has built.

While McGowan has received praise for founding and serving as CEO of the digital-first Democratic outfit ACRONYM, a nonprofit organization that aims to spend a massive $75 million on digital ads combatting President Donald Trump during the 2020 election, she’s also received blowback.

In particular, her group’s sprawling and opaque structure has frustrated fellow Democrats, with some arguing that ACRONYM’s “company-within-a-company” collection of progressive news sites, consulting services, and experimental merchandise vendors lacks transparency regarding its payments to consultants and staff, obscuring potential conflicts of interest or governance issues.

They point to the mix of for-profit entities under the nonprofit parent company as especially problematic.

“People are really frustrated and skeptical about the structure that Tara has created,” said one Democratic operative, who did not want to be quoted for risk of alienation. “There’s a nonprofit and then there are for-profits below it, like a nesting doll. It’s moving money around in a way that’s unclear to people.”

Other critics acknowledge that McGowan is a talented messenger — but argue she revved up her donors on the idea that her fellow Democrats were not doing enough while getting clobbered by Trump online in order to launch ACRONYM’s $75 million anti-Trump digital program, and then has been slow to spend the money she pledged to bring to the fight.

To them, Shadow’s failure in Iowa was not shocking, nor was the way ACRONYM sought to distance itself from the organization in the wake of the caucuses.

In a tweet on Tuesday, McGowan called Shadow an “independent company ACRONYM invested in.”

“We don’t have any information beyond the public statements the IDP has put out + like all of you, eagerly await learning what happened and who won the IA caucus,” McGowan wrote, referencing the Iowa Democratic Party. In a statement posted on Twitter, ACRONYM said it was “not a technology company” and had “not provided any technology to the Iowa Democratic Party, Presidential campaigns, or the Democratic National Committee.”

But ACRONYM trumpeted the group in 2018, and Shadow staffers work in the same offices as ACRONYM, according to a person familiar with the group.

“It’s the cover-up that f---ing kills you. The idea that was out there saying no one has any idea who was involved with this. You’re telling me she had no idea the firm she launched was being hired to run this project?” said one longtime Washington Democratic operative.

Critics of ACRONYM declined to speak on the record because they are concerned about maintaining party unity, and retribution from the group’s donors. Allies declined to speak on the record to POLITICO, too, saying they didn’t want to become a part of the online firestorm surrounding Shadow. McGowan is a talented operative who has rapidly built a powerful organization and who helped the party in 2018, they said.

“From my perspective, she’s been able to raise a lot of funds and help state legislative races,” said one Democrat familiar with McGowan’s work.

Shadow’s failure in Iowa has fed skepticism of the increasingly popular venture-style approach to Democratic infrastructure that ACRONYM reflects. The organization, which has ties to big Silicon Valley donors including LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, is busting norms in Democratic politics. But while some Democrats see such risk-taking as being absolutely necessary in order for the party to win elections, others argue it has no place playing a role during a high-stakes caucus night.

Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska state Democratic Party and a critic of big-money investment in Democratic data infrastructure, said she would “never” consider using an app with funding from Silicon Valley to help Nebraska select delegates or with other processes.

“My bottom line as party chair is we should not be using electronic voting for any elections at the party level or for candidates,” Kleeb said. “It's just not an accessible form of voting and having your voice heard for older voters or for people with different disabilities, visual disabilities.”

McGowan, who is in her mid-30s, directed digital strategy at Priorities USA Action, the main super PAC aiding Hillary Clinton during her 2016 White House campaign. But McGowan clashed with Priorities USA Chairman Guy Cecil over how to approach digital advertising, which had become a major part of the election for the first time in 2016.

Despite both running major anti-Trump Democratic groups, the two have had virtually no relationship since McGowan left Priorities USA after the 2016 election, according to multiple people familiar with the situation.

McGowan launched ACRONYM after Trump’s election as a “digital-first political organization" with the goal of electing progressive Democrats, mostly in state legislative races. The group quickly attracted attention, especially in Silicon Valley, from newly galvanized major donors including LinkedIn’s Hoffman, who was wading into politics and looking for projects to disrupt the Democratic status quo. (Hoffman and other donors in his network “took a chance” on ACRONYM, McGowan told POLITICO in 2019.)

More recently, longtime Democratic donors Steven Spielberg and Hollywood producer Jeffrey Katzenberg cut six-figure checks to the checks to the group’s affiliated super PAC, PACRONYM.

McGowan created ACRONYM as a 501(c)(4), an increasingly common type of political nonprofit. But then she did something highly unusual: She began buying and forming new, for-profit companies affiliated with ACRONYM but still separate from it.

Those for-profits include Shadow, which ACRONYM launched in January 2019 after spending nearly $1 million to acquire a peer-to-peer texting company called Groundbase that provided the underlying technology, according to information shared with POLITICO at the time. McGowan is also raising $25 million for a liberal local news network, Courier Newsroom, that will generate left-leaning political news content and then pay to have the content placed favorably in people’s Facebook feeds.

McGowan’s own digital consulting company, Lockwood Strategy, also received $1 million in payments from ACRONYM’s PAC during the fall of 2018, disclosures show, for work marked as “Digital Ad Buy.”

Proponents of McGowan’s approach say Democrats need to be willing to experiment and move quickly, investing in projects like Shadow and Courier Newsroom, if they want to match Trump’s prowess online.

But skeptics in the Democratic Party are unsure why Shadow or Courier Newsroom are being run as separate, for-profit companies, which shields them from even the minimal transparency that ACRONYM is subject to. When ACRONYM files mandatory tax disclosures, it must reveal top employees’ salaries, payments to its biggest consultants and provide assurances that the ACRONYM empire’s different arms aren’t paying the same people multiple salaries — basic assurances to the nonprofit’s donors.

“Everything may be perfectly above board here. Then again, it may not be,” said nonprofit attorney Marcus Owens, a partner at Loeb & Loeb. For example, a nonprofit like ACRONYM may want to maintain a for-profit company so it can offer shares in the company to top employees, Owens said. It will be possible to discern some more information about ACRONYM’s relationship with the companies when more tax filings for the group are publicly available, Owens said.

Kyle Tharp, spokesperson for ACRONYM, did not answer questions POLITICO posed about ACRONYM’s structure.

ACRONYM ballooned in 2019, thanks in part to new support from David Plouffe, Obama’s celebrated 2008 campaign manager and former senior vice president at Uber. Plouffe joined the group’s board in the fall of 2019. In November, ACRONYM announced it would spend $75 million on digital advertising to counter Trump’s online spending onslaught.

Three months later, that deluge of spending has barely begun, despite McGowan’s public urgency: ACRONYM spent only $781,000 on advertising on Facebook and Google since the start of November, according to the tracking firm Advertising Analytics. (It has likely spent some money other place online, but Google and Facebook are major hubs for political advertising.)

ACRONYM had also announced last year it would spend $1 million on digital ads focused on impeaching Trump, but with its total spending at less than $1 million, it’s not clear if that spending fully materialized.

Tharp, the ACRONYM spokesperson, said in an email that ACRONYM has spent “spent several million dollars since July 2019 across Facebook, Google, Hulu” under various campaign and brand names.

On Monday, Shadow was one part of a caucus meltdown that could have ramifications for years to come on Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status. Precinct captains reported issues logging into Shadow, and the Iowa Democratic Party said a "coding issue" was to blame for the technical woes.

By Tuesday, Shadow had issued an apology, tweeting, "We sincerely regret the delay in the reporting of the results of last night’s Iowa caucuses and the uncertainty it has caused to the candidates, their campaigns, and Democratic caucus-goers.”

And the Nevada Democratic Party, which has also paid Shadow, preemptively announced that it would not use the app.

“NV Dems can confidently say that what happened in the Iowa caucus last night will not happen in Nevada on February 22nd. We will not be employing the same app or vendor used in the Iowa caucus,” state party chairman William McCurdy II said in a statement.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Wed Feb-05-20 12:17 PM

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191. "A nonprofit? Yeah... lol. "
In response to Reply # 190


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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Wed Feb-05-20 01:02 PM

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198. "At this point, to not call for reform is telling on yourself."
In response to Reply # 190
Wed Feb-05-20 01:13 PM by Vex_id

          

>That's not a conspiracy. It's actually worse. It means the
>people who are leading the party and telling you that this is
>the most important election of our lifetime don't actually
>believe it. Or, rather, don't believe it to the extent that
>they're willing prioritize a transparent and smooth election
>process that chooses the best candidate over say, the party
>operating as a permanent jobs program for people who interned
>for the right congressman when they were in undergraduate.

Right. If you're actually looking at the established facts here, it would take an extraordinary amount of coincidental naivete to not throw a flag on any of it, and just dismiss it as benign incompetence and unrelated coincidences.

And you're right - this is basically a small group of self-serving insiders who circlejerk each other and feel entitled to steer the party as they see fit, one $21,250 micro pay-for-play payment at a time:

https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?data_type=processed&committee_id=C00697441&recipient_name=Shadow&two_year_transaction_period=2020

Listening to faux techies like Mook talk about how this process was put through "rigorous testing" and that they had established "best practices" in Iowa to prevent malfunction is absolute comic gold right now.

This was a monumental failure by the Iowa Dems (which now has required the DNC to get involved). Another unforced error undermining equity in the primary process.

It's hilarious to see all of those associated with Shadow Inc. try and walk back their associations. Those responsible should be called out and held accountable for this debacle.


--s

  

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kfine
Member since Jan 11th 2009
2218 posts
Wed Feb-05-20 03:14 PM

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208. "Why do you keep omitting multiple candidates contributed to this app?"
In response to Reply # 198
Wed Feb-05-20 03:19 PM by kfine

          

It's blatantly false, you've done it multiple posts now, and the disinfo makes it harder to read your concerns as valid criticism as opposed to some half-baked anti-Pete conspiracy theory lol.

Like, in #108 you said:

• Pete Buttigieg is the only candidate to fund this app

Then here again, you post:

>https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?data_type=processed&committee_id=C00697441&recipient_name=Shadow&two_year_transaction_period=2020
>

In reality, like 3 campaigns used Shadow product/services:

https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?data_type=processed&recipient_name=Shadow&two_year_transaction_period=2020

including 1 candidate that has since left the race, and another candidate who fared MUCH worse in IA. (edit, if you filter for 'Presidential' under Spender Committee Type, it limits to disbursements from the 3 2020 candidates specifically).

Given the filtering done in the link you originally posted, you obviously know how to navigate around in that data... so it really just looks like you're intentionally omitting other candidates' involvement. Kinda wack

That's my only issue with the concerns you've been raising.



>
>Right. If you're actually looking at the established facts
>here, it would take an extraordinary amount of coincidental
>naivete to not throw a flag on any of it, and just dismiss it
>as benign incompetence and unrelated coincidences.
>
>And you're right - this is basically a small group of
>self-serving insiders who circlejerk each other and feel
>entitled to steer the party as they see fit, one $21,250 micro
>pay-for-play payment at a time:
>
>https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?data_type=processed&committee_id=C00697441&recipient_name=Shadow&two_year_transaction_period=2020
>

  

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Vex_id
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Wed Feb-05-20 03:25 PM

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210. "If you could read above - I mentioned Biden as well"
In response to Reply # 208


          

as I was going through the FEC disclosures. As mentioned - Biden was the only other (active) candidate to render payment to Shadow Inc. - and it was a small payment in comparison to Pete's $42,500 payment.

>In reality, like 3 campaigns used Shadow product/services:

not "like" 3 campaigns. Let's be specific: Gillibrand was also a client (who is irrelevant here as she had no stake in Iowa).

It was Pete & Biden (and that was mentioned above). But there's a reason why the focus is more on Pete: Pete For America made larger payments, Shadow Inc.'s org-chart features Pete supporters, and he's the one who claimed victory with 0% of the vote in. There's nothing wrong with pointing out these facts, even if it triggers you to cry "conspiracy theory" for no reason.

This isn't hard.



-->

  

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kfine
Member since Jan 11th 2009
2218 posts
Wed Feb-05-20 04:06 PM

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213. "Alright cool, I see #118. But you still omitted Biden here in #198. Like"
In response to Reply # 210


          


literally filtered exclusively for Pete's campaign lol


>as I was going through the FEC disclosures. As mentioned -
>Biden was the only other (active) candidate to render payment
>to Shadow Inc. - and it was a small payment in comparison to
>Pete's $42,500 payment.
>
>>In reality, like 3 campaigns used Shadow product/services:
>
>not "like" 3 campaigns. Let's be specific: Gillibrand was
>also a client (who is irrelevant here as she had no stake in
>Iowa).

>It was Pete & Biden (and that was mentioned above).


Oh ok, well I just don't vibe with your logic then. Because if there *was* some conspiracy between Shadow and certain campaigns (which I don't necessarily think there was), then the fact that Gillibrand eventually left the race before voting occurred wouldn't exonerate imo. Their disbursements occurred roughly around the same time (quarter?).

OR, it's possible those campaigns could have just been paying to use Shadow normally for other things at that time since they were building out their operations, like engagement/subscription services or what have you. I'm not a forensic accountant lol.

All I'm trying to say is: if I was trying to make the points you're making about corruption, there'd be no reason to omit other campaigns' disbursements... unless I was trying to push a *specific* narrative about Pete *shrug*

Also, re: the claimed victory issue... I'm sorry what was trending on twitter after IA #BernieWon or #PeteWon?? Lol. Besides, the fact that the first ever openly gay presidential candidate in US history, who also happens to be the youngest, who's been the recipient of so much skepticism about his electability... did well in IA was in fact victorious, sorry lol. EVEN if he placed 2nd or 3rd, which he was explicitly asked in media appearances the next day. It's hilarious how blinded some of the left is by raging hatred for this man that an obvious nuance like this is suddenly super controversial to acknowledge. lol


and he's the one who claimed victory with 0%
>of the vote in.

  

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Vex_id
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Wed Feb-05-20 04:23 PM

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214. "Again, merely engaging in some fact-finding "
In response to Reply # 213


          

does not mean we are jumping to conclusions and engaging in "conspiracy" - we all should want to understand what happened in Iowa - and engaging in fact-finding is helpful.

Given that the app was such a failure - we should want to find out everything we can about the app, its developers, those funding it/using its services - and why it was used in Iowa. These are absolutely fair questions to ask.

>All I'm trying to say is: if I was trying to make the points
>you're making about corruption, there'd be no reason to omit
>other campaigns' disbursements... unless I was trying to push
>a *specific* narrative about Pete *shrug*

Again - what point about "corruption" am I trying to make? I haven't come to any conclusions here other than looking at the facts - which detail questionable associations with Shadow Inc. as it pertains to candidate favoritism.

>Also, re: the claimed victory issue... I'm sorry what was
>trending on twitter after IA #BernieWon or #PeteWon?? Lol.

Since when does Twitter overrule real life? Pete is the one who claimed victory - and he was (and has been) widely reported as the candidate who has won (or at least the candidate who is winning) Iowa. This is not in dispute.

>Besides, the fact that the first ever openly gay presidential
>candidate in US history, who also happens to be the youngest,
>who's been the recipient of so much skepticism about his
>electability... did well in IA was in fact victorious, sorry
>lol. EVEN if he placed 2nd or 3rd, which he was explicitly
>asked in media appearances the next day. It's hilarious how
>blinded some of the left is by raging hatred for this man that
>an obvious nuance like this is suddenly super controversial to
>acknowledge. lol

So a couple things: Pete was always positioned to do well in Iowa. Most polls had him in the top 3 (although few if any actually tracked him as winning Iowa). Also, if anyone's campaign might be hurt the most because of this gross incompetence out of Iowa - you could make the argument it would be Pete's. If he does indeed earn a legitimate victory in Iowa - he will have been robbed of the signature crowning moment and the immediate momentum of such an impressive victory. He needs Iowa arguably more than any other candidate (as it's hard to find another state he could win on the board right now).

This isn't about "hating Pete" - it's about understanding what exactly happened in Iowa. A lot of the facts have revealed associations with Shadow Inc. & Pete for America. As such, we should look into them.

Let's also not act brand new: If an app (named Revolution Inc.) was used in Iowa in similar fashion, with significant Bernie for America payments to it - and it was revealed that Jeff Weaver was the CEO, and Nina Turner was the COO of the company that developed the app - and then Sanders declared premature victory (with 0% of the vote in) - and there was an issue of app error codes and inconsistencies with the results, I'm sure you wouldn't just be glossing over this like, "oh come on! Nothing to see here!" lol.




-->

  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
132271 posts
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200. "the realest talk"
In response to Reply # 190


  

          

>That's not a conspiracy. It's actually worse. It means the
>people who are leading the party and telling you that this is
>the most important election of our lifetime don't actually
>believe it. Or, rather, don't believe it to the extent that
>they're willing prioritize a transparent and smooth election
>process that chooses the best candidate over say, the party
>operating as a permanent jobs program for people who interned
>for the right congressman when they were in undergraduate.


^^^^


>They're not in smokey backrooms pre-ordaining a candidate
>because that would require actual principles. Instead, they're
>just completely fine with a monumental fuck-up because they
>suffer nothing from the Trump administration and will
>gleefully pursue their desire for wealth and power at the
>detriment of basic human necessities for working people.

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

Jays | Cavs | Eagles | Sabres | Tarheels

PSN: Dr_Claw_77 | XBL: Dr Claw 077 | FB: drclaw077 | T: @drclaw77 | http://thepeoplesvault.wordpress.com

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Wed Feb-05-20 12:32 PM

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193. "I actually think the calamity was a good thing. "
In response to Reply # 0


          

The results are delayed by a couple days. Boo hoo. It's a sickness of the political-media culture that anyone even cares about the Iowa Caucus.

It extends the meme of HealthCare.gov, undermining any argument we might try to make about restoring competence to the WH. That's the only unalloyed negative I see in all this.

But apart from that:

Hopefully it'll kill the very idea of caucuses, which are deeply undemocratic and anachronistic.

It'll likely kill Iowa's "first in the nation" status, at least for Democratic primaries, which is good because Iowa is completely unrepresentative of the party or of the general electorate.

It'll definitely hold off any rush to online voting, which would open us up to dystopian scenarios where election results themselves would be subject to hacking. More to the point: it gives a clear example of the importance of a paper trail behind every vote (or caucus), which might have otherwise come increasingly into question as new generations of electronic voting booths are developed.

No candidate got a clean media narrative out of it, which is a good thing because the number of delegates actually chosen in Iowa is negligible.

No candidate got to make a big victory speech and mug for "momentum," again a good thing because the Iowa caucus is completely unrepresentative and "momentum" is just a euphemism for the peculiar way that the media narratives push the base-level popularity contest in one direction or another.

I think the Iowa Caucus got what it deserved.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Wed Feb-05-20 12:53 PM

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195. "i have to say it was good for pete"
In response to Reply # 193


  

          

he did claim to win before results were released. when we got some results it barely backed up his claim. assuming the numbers are accurate, he got an even bigger boost than if everything was released in a timely manner.

if the results stands i think the biggest take away is that bernie might actually be the front runner. maybe this is just a blip for biden and he bounces back. maybe this is more than one big win for pete and he does keep getting good results. the one thing we know is that sanders is solid.

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Wed Feb-05-20 01:21 PM

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201. "Definitely a good night for Pete."
In response to Reply # 195


          

If he'd ended with the Biden-level numbers everyone expected, he might be out of the race by now.

And I actually don't mind the way he just went out and declared victory. Each of the campaigns had pretty good data on how they, themselves, were doing (less so on how each other was doing), through direct communication with their caucus managers. So the Buttigieg campaign at least knew that they had massively outpaced expectations, which is really all they needed to say it was a fantastic night for them. I might even be coming around to seeing him as a candidate, though I still don't think he's likely to survive the next few events, even with the bump he'll inevitably get.

Bernie Bros will claim victory, and it's probably no surprise that I don't think that's deserved. In fact, after Bernie gets the big win everyone expects out of New Hampshire people will be asking why he isn't just anointed the nominee. But Iowa was always gonna go well for him. The caucus process is almost designed to favor a candidate like Bernie. The fact that he, with all his advantages, coming in with what looked like a huge polling lead, and with relatively-low turnout which amplifies his caucus advantage, appears to have ended up behind the 38-year-old mayor of South Bend Indiana, really should make people question where his upside really is. People have been talking like this was a 2-way race, but Biden clearly didn't stand in the way of a big Bernie win. The fact that even when Biden is essentially out of the picture, Bernie still can't become the alternative frontrunner that the #2 from the previous cycle would normally be, should be a subject of concern for Bernie.

As for Biden, I'm not gonna pretend it wasn't a shitty night for his campaign (though it doesn't look like he'll end all that far behind Warren, and Warren's showing wasn't bad at all). But again, we shouldn't be surprised. Caucuses are bad for moderates, bad for "insiders", bad for people with a lot of support from older voters, bad for people with a lot of support from poorer voters. If he can still win SC, he's still in the race. This is especially true if he can put in a better showing in Nevada (another caucus state, but the labor machines are big there, a few of which are behind him; and Harry Reid, to the extent he's involved, would probably help him); and if he can eke out a second-place showing in New Hampshire. IIRC, Bill Clinton's "comeback kid" event was a second-place showing in NH after an unexpectedly bad showing in Iowa.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Wed Feb-05-20 03:13 PM

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207. "This was bad for Biden. Really bad"
In response to Reply # 201


          

I know Iowa ain’t shit and it’s on to the next but it’s still a bad look and if he doesn’t get his sh it together he could be out much sooner than expected. I honestly thought he would be the nominee.

Not sure if a strong showing in SC will be enough. Hell, if he keeps losing like this voters may jump ship by the time he gets to Iowa.

My coworker asked me if Biden will suffer among Black voters in SC and I really want to say he won’t suffer but I’m not sure. It’s Bernie’s second time around, people are familiar with his name down here. Wouldn’t be surprised if Bernie is stronger in SC than polls indicate.

I may be wishing tho..

I’m a little shocked by Pete but he is from Indiana and that’s pretty close to home.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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196. "Well, at least we can agree on this:"
In response to Reply # 193


          


>I think the Iowa Caucus got what it deserved.



-->

  

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flipnile
Member since Nov 05th 2003
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Wed Feb-05-20 01:00 PM

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197. "RE: The Iowa Circus "
In response to Reply # 0
Wed Feb-05-20 01:02 PM by flipnile

          

.

  

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reaction
Member since Aug 09th 2019
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Wed Feb-05-20 02:24 PM

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202. "Nonwhite Iowa caucus voters Bernie 43% Pete 15% Biden 13%"
In response to Reply # 0
Wed Feb-05-20 02:29 PM by reaction

          

https://twitter.com/disruptionary/status/1224877963528851456?s=20

and 2020 brought out a higher percentage of 17-29 year olds than Obama https://twitter.com/AliMortell/status/1225119175372419074

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Wed Feb-05-20 02:43 PM

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203. "You're a connoisseur of carefully cultivated cherries."
In response to Reply # 202


          

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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206. "Huge for Bernie.. not so good for the others lol"
In response to Reply # 202


  

          

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Wed Feb-05-20 03:21 PM

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209. "Really interested in how Bernie performs down south. "
In response to Reply # 206


          

Are voters noticing how tired and dry Biden is looking these days? He doesn’t look like he has any fight in him.

You would think Biden is the one who had a heart attack

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Wed Feb-05-20 03:48 PM

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211. "RE: Really interested in how Bernie performs down south. "
In response to Reply # 209


  

          

not sure how his sex life is relevant to the election.

  

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Vex_id
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212. "Sanders is the strongest candidate in terms of broad support"
In response to Reply # 209
Wed Feb-05-20 03:58 PM by Vex_id

          

He may not win SC - but he'll do well. Biden once had a purported gigantic 30-point lead in SC - now it's a tight race with Sanders (and even Steyer) closing the gap:

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/south-carolina-post-and-courier-january-poll

Sanders will win New Hampshire & California, he'll perform very well in Nevada (if not win there as well), is doing better than expected in Texas (closing the gap on Biden there as well), and is best positioned to win in states featuring diverse populations (namely Latinx, Black, and young demographics).

The conventional wisdom was that Biden was the front-runner and had the ability to rally the broader electorate - but that position looks awfully flimsy after his performance in Iowa.

The question is really this: Can he earn enough delegates and achieve a large enough margin to avoid a brokered convention?

Let's hope so (or let's hope somebody else is able to win outright before Milwaukee). A brokered convention won't be good for anyone - namely those interested in defeating Trump.

-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 08:23 AM

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223. "The demographics of Iowa doesn’t really help much "
In response to Reply # 212


          

when it comes to viewing how Biden is trending with Black voters. That’s why I’m anxious to see SC play out.

If Biden doesn’t have the big win it’s a wrap for him going forward.

While I wasn’t his biggest fan I really thought Biden would be around for a while. SC will tell us a lot about Biden.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
12776 posts
Fri Feb-07-20 12:07 AM

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308. "BTW this is wrong."
In response to Reply # 202


          


>https://twitter.com/AliMortell/status/1225119175372419074

This does not show that turnout was higher this cycle among young people. It shows (to the extent that we take the entrance polls seriously) that a higher percentage of the people who caucused was 17-29. Given that A LOT fewer people caucused than in 2008, and a slightly smaller number of people caucused than in 2016, the turnout among young people was probably a bit down from either of those cycles.

  

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Rjcc
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:10 AM

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218. "are the results still rigged and invalid now that Bernie might've won or..."
In response to Reply # 0


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Teknontheou
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Thu Feb-06-20 07:18 AM

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220. "The initial headlines are the point of winning IA. "
In response to Reply # 218


  

          

They provide momentum going forward. Pete got all of that because of how it went down and he's much better off now because of it.

So a potential rigging doesnt have to alter final vote tallies to be effective. It just has to set the initial impression and cause 4 or 5 days worth of confusion, at which point NH becomes the focus and the final correction on IA gets lost/ignored.

  

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Rjcc
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Thu Feb-06-20 07:30 AM

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221. "STILL RIGGED"
In response to Reply # 220


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 08:19 AM

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222. "It also protected Biden from a horrible L "
In response to Reply # 220


          




****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Thu Feb-06-20 09:15 AM

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224. "Which one of you OKPs is this?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

https://i.redd.it/p8u5gphg6af41.jpg

  

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Walleye
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242. "Pete Partisans threaten violence against diverse Sanders' coalition"
In response to Reply # 224


          

Antoninus: "I bring a message from your master, Marcus Licinius Crassus, Commander of Italy, by command of his most merciful excellency your lives shall be spared. Slaves you were and slaves you remain but the terrible penalty of crucifixion shall be set aside on the single condition that you identify the body or the living person of the fucking human garbage that Bernie Sanders calls supporters."

"I'm fucking human garbage"

"I'm fucking human garbage!"

"I'm fucking human garbage"

*crowd shouting over one another"

"I'm fucking human garbage!"

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:09 PM

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253. "LMAO"
In response to Reply # 242


  

          

and so timely w/ Kirk Douglas' passing

  

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Vex_id
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281. "lol it's going to be a long year for the Conservative Democrats."
In response to Reply # 224


          


-->

  

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Walleye
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225. "This is cool as hell"
In response to Reply # 0


          

There's video if you click through.

https://twitter.com/kerubin_ho/status/1225203090053308422

kerubin_ho
@kerubin_ho

159 people from the Karen, Karenni, Chin, Mon, Shan, and Rakhine refugee communities from Myanmar came to caucus at the Karen Baptist Church in DSM. All 159 caucused for Bernie, winning all 9 county delegates. It was the first vote/caucus for over 95% of them. #iowacaucuses

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Vex_id
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:13 AM

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231. "I hadn't seen that."
In response to Reply # 225


          

Thanks for sharing -- truly inspiring story. I'm connected with the refugee community in my state and it's been heart-warming to hear their advocacy for Senator Sanders.

-->

  

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Walleye
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243. "warms my cold, dead heart"
In response to Reply # 231


          

These aren't some rubes. Refugees have their eyes wide fucking open about American politics and they know that a Sanders presidency isn't going to change everything overnight. But a massive, international movement of working people in solidarity with each other is our best chance to make something good and live freely with each other.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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246. ""Pork plant workers turn out for Sanders in 1st caucus in Iowa""
In response to Reply # 225


          

Pictures in the link. This is the Sanders coalition. Regular people who feel left behind by the political process and see this campaign as an opportunity to assert themselves on terms that actually address their material needs.

https://theintercept.com/2020/02/03/iowa-first-caucus-satellite-pork-plant-workers/

PORK PLANT WORKERS TURN OUT FOR SANDERS IN FIRST CAUCUS IN IOWA
Akela Lacy, Ryan Grim
February 3 2020, 1:40 p.m.

THE FIRST CAUCUS in Iowa was held at noon at a union hall in Ottumwa, about an hour and a half from Des Moines, where meatpackers and other workers unable to vote in the evening’s official caucuses were given the chance to cast ballots at a satellite caucus.

Just over a dozen workers gathered at the headquarters of the local United Food and Commercial Workers, with 14 casting their votes for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. One attendee cast their vote for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Satellite caucuses will continue to be held at union halls, senior centers, and universities throughout the afternoon, leading up to the regularly scheduled caucuses on Monday evening at 7 p.m. central time.

The caucus in Ottumwa, population 24,550, on the banks of the Des Moines River, will net Sanders four delegates for their congressional district, according to caucus chair Frank Flanders, the political director for the UFCW Local 230. The Warren supporter said she would not realign, meaning that her vote effectively won’t count toward anything.

The turnout for Sanders among union members reflects the campaign’s strategy of mobilizing nontraditional voters. Many of the Ottumwa meatpackers are immigrants, largely of Ethiopian origin or descent — not the corn-fed farmers typically associated in the popular imagination with the Iowa caucuses.

Phillip Cross, a 67-year-old defatter at the JBS pork plant and a first-time caucuser who showed up for Sanders, said it was a decision his union made. “Local 230 pretty much decided that it was Bernie Sanders,” he told The Intercept. Asked whether he was worried about Sanders’ electability, Cross brushed off the idea. “From 2016, it will tell you, anyone is capable of winning,” he said, saying he liked Sanders’s goals of equal pay regardless of gender and universal healthcare. “I like a lot of his goals. … He believes everybody deserves to be taken care of when they’re sick. He’s just being pretty much what everybody else really dreams about.”

While the Ottumwa caucus was the first in the state, the first Iowa caucus was actually held in Tbilisi, Georgia. The results of that three-person caucus will be announced on Monday night.

Iowa polls have shown an extraordinarily close and volatile race, with Sanders capturing late momentum heading into the caucus. A number of recent polls showed Sanders consistently surging in the days leading up to Iowa, followed by a slew of stories on how Democratic Party stalwarts are strategizing and spending to keep Sanders from winning the nomination.

Their argument centers on the question of electability and the idea that Sanders is not equipped to beat President Donald Trump. Sanders does lead Trump in a handful of polls when they’re competing head to head, and in polls in which he’s behind the president, he performs fairly close to the center’s idea of electability: former Vice President Joe Biden or former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Warren performs similarly to Sanders. On Sunday, the Sanders campaign released an ad highlighting his ability to defeat Trump in the general election.

The center’s attempts to derail Sanders’s nationwide surge have seemed to backfire. Outside political action committees spent big to back Biden and Buttigieg, and a Democratic pro-Israel group with deep ties to the far-right Israel lobby group, the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee spent on the first ads attacking Sanders by name just last week. Hillary Clinton launched another attack on Sanders in a podcast interview. The attacks only boosted Sanders’s war chest: His campaign raised $1.3 million in a day after the attack ads ran in Iowa.

States that hold caucuses instead of primaries use the process to elect state delegate equivalents. Iowa’s 41 pledged delegates will vote at the state party convention in June. The number of state delegates for each candidate determines how many national convention delegates they get; those national delegates vote in July at the party’s national convention in Milwaukee.

None of the backlash to Sanders’s rise comes as a surprise. He faced a similar battle against Clinton at the Democratic National Convention in 2016, struggling to beat her superdelegate count in multiple states where he won the popular vote comfortably. That included Washington state, where he won close to 73 percent of the vote; Colorado, where he won 59 percent of the vote; New Hampshire; Kansas; and Maine. “If I win a state with 70 percent of the vote, you know what? I think I am entitled to those superdelegates,” Sanders said.

The Democratic National Committee attempted to address those concerns with a historic rule change in 2018, stripping superdelegates of the power to vote on the first ballot at the national convention, something critics said allowed a small group of powerful party figures to override the will of voters.

For all the fanfare around the first-in-the-nation caucus, Iowa accounts for only around 1 percent of the total national delegates who will determine the party’s nominee in July. Candidates have faced increased pressure this cycle to denounce what critics say is an arbitrary order that unfairly centers majority white voters in an increasingly diverse nation. But the event is largely seen as setting the pace of the coming months, as a number of states hold their caucuses in the coming weeks.

Follow The Intercept and subscribe to Intercepted for more in-depth coverage of the Iowa caucuses.

Update: February 3, 2:35 p.m.
This piece has been updated with details about the delegate count and an interview.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Thu Feb-06-20 10:19 AM

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226. "Bernie up and Biden down on 538's forecast"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 10:47 AM

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227. "Uh oh"
In response to Reply # 226


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:02 AM

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228. "while liberals were amplifying disinfo and fighting amongst each other"
In response to Reply # 0


          

real election interference was taking place:

https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1225272553255645184
-----
SCOOP: Trump supporters flooded a hotline used by Iowa precinct chairs to report Democratic caucus results after the telephone number was posted online, worsening delays in the statewide tally, a top state Democrat told party leaders Wednesday. w/@jeneps

https://t.co/AMlFNKf1F4
-----

for some reason...there isnt the same appetite to call this out as there was to come up with far ranging conspiracy theories about some shitty app.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:09 AM

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229. "We really have to stop blaming the GOP for our incompetence "
In response to Reply # 228


          

It shouldn’t be this easy to disrupt election results.

crank calls? Really?





****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:09 AM

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230. "was there any reporting on this before last night/this morning"
In response to Reply # 228


  

          

i dont remember if i saw this late last night or this morning for the first time.

did this just get discovered?

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:19 AM

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232. "It doesn’t matter"
In response to Reply # 230


          

The only reason it was able to happen was because Iowa fucked up and people started posting sheets and taking photos like HS kids.

This is like complaining about a fire alarm at a hotel before the big game.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:29 AM

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234. "RE: It doesn’t matter"
In response to Reply # 232


          


>This is like complaining about a fire alarm at a hotel before
>the big game.

Basically. Blaming some 4chan trolls for the internal failures of the Democratic Party means that the party is more vulnerable to interference than we ever would've imagined lol.

-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 12:00 PM

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236. "So now it’s Tommy Joe in Iowa with a Boost mobile plan.. and Russia"
In response to Reply # 234


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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239. "Apparently, there's no defense for internet trolls. "
In response to Reply # 236


          

Who knew?

-->

  

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Vex_id
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:26 AM

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233. "Iowa results as of this morning (2/6)"
In response to Reply # 228


          

https://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/iowa-caucuses-results-alignment/

CANDIDATE DELEGATE
EQUIVALENTS PERCENT FIRST ALIGNMENT PERCENT FINAL ALIGNMENT PERCENT
Pete Buttigieg 550 26.2% 36,718 21.3% 42,235 25.0%
Bernie Sanders 547 26.1% 42,672 24.7% 44,753 26.5%

Sanders has been sweeping the satellite caucuses and has continued to close the gap as the reports still - 3 days later - continue to trickle in.

Notable: Sanders won both the first alignment and the final re-alignment - showing that he was the second choice for more voters than was initially thought by many commentators.

Both Sanders & Buttigieg will likely leave Iowa with the same amount of delegates - but Pete certainly got a boost going into New Hampshire as the purported winner. His poll numbers are up in NH (though he still trails Sanders by a significant margin), fund-raising is up, and the moderate wing has started to rally to him and abandon other candidates (namely Biden & Klobuchar) - all by-products of the perception of him as the "victorious" one in Iowa, according to him.

But did he actually win Iowa? It's egregious that we still don't know -- and despite the claims that the results have been wholly "accurate" - inconsistencies and errors remain:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html




-->

  

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Vex_id
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235. "."
In response to Reply # 233


          


-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 12:02 PM

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237. "He “won” Iowa... which sucks for everyone but Bernie"
In response to Reply # 233


          

Doesn’t matter if he actually won IMO. He fucked up the Biden money.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:47 PM

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249. "bernie can claim victory regardless."
In response to Reply # 237


          

most votes in both rounds which is all that *should* matter.

none of this shit is even significant in the long run outside of narrative framing.

we talked about it in one of those earlier dem primary polls. the amount of importance placed on ia and nh is so stupid...especially given todays electoral landscape.

  

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kfine
Member since Jan 11th 2009
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:02 PM

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277. "I do grapple with a couple things tho: 1) urban-rural and 2) 2nd realign..."
In response to Reply # 249
Thu Feb-06-20 04:02 PM by kfine

          

My thing is, I get that it's super tempting to look at IA as a popular vote if it suits a candidate (in this case, Bernie), but that does a disservice to the rural population... for whom the 'delegate equivalents' are supposed to help even the scale, right??

Like, this is starting to remind me of HRC v. 45 discussions re: the electoral college (a system which, ironically, we all know Buttigieg is a vocal critic of even though his campaign clearly(smartly?) strategized to use such math to his advantage to pick up rural delegates in IA). I mean look at the (current) IA map:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQBaZmSVUAAa_t1?format=jpg&name=large

All that yellow is Buttigieg. No one learning about this race for the first time would be surprised to hear that the candidate who won all those yellow counties was deemed the (delegate) "winner".

I'm not advocating against popular vote counts, I do see their importance and they may even be my preference. But if it's not even the way the rules are set up... I guess I don't really see the point in focusing on it? Although, as you say, IA's currency here is the narrative boost.

Other thing is, the way people/media are talking about the 2nd realignment is very strange to me. There's honestly more meaning in looking at the difference between the candidates' 1st alignments and 2nd alignments:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQGvNfLX0AIwx19?format=jpg&name=medium

as opposed to rank ordering each candidate's 2nd alignment results (if IA isn't going to use a popular vote, than rank ordering only makes sense for the 1st imo). Like in the alignment link above, the gains for the top 4 candidates were:

Buttigieg +5517
Sanders +2081
Warren +2305
Biden -2648

^By this measure, I would view Buttigieg as having "won" the 2nd alignment given that he dominated as voters preferred 2nd choice in precincts where a preferred candidate wasn't viable (more than Sanders and Warren *combined*). In fact Sanders was a distant 3rd place behind Pete in 2nd realigment, ending up with a good 2nd alignment tally only because he was a strong 1st pick.

So ya. Whatever I guess. At this point, recanvass or not, I'm just looking at IA as a statistical tie and moving on. Nobody swept it or even came close. And if the percentages stayed similar to this throughout the primary (with different candidates "winning" depending on the region), things will almost certainly lead to a brokered convention, as I'm suspecting. But I *do* think Buttigieg's ability to win rural and suburban areas and appeal to voters of broad political orientations (vs. Sanders' ability to turn out young urban voters and minority communities that represent small percentages of the US population) is something to think about when one considers:

https://i.insider.com/583c8ee3ba6eb620008b6738?

Both strategies are important and give the warm fuzzies, but one has stronger implications both electorally and mathematically imho.

  

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Vex_id
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:08 PM

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278. "RE: I do grapple with a couple things tho: 1) urban-rural and 2) 2nd rea..."
In response to Reply # 277


          


>I'm not advocating against popular vote counts, I do see their
>importance and they may even be my preference. But if it's not
>even the way the rules are set up... I guess I don't really
>see the point in focusing on it?

So it's fair to say that you've pushed back against the continued reminders that Clinton won the popular vote and have resisted calls to reform the electoral college?

-->

  

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kfine
Member since Jan 11th 2009
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:30 PM

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286. "--------"I'm not advocating against popular vote counts"--------"
In response to Reply # 278


          

>
>> I do see
>their
>>importance and they may even be my preference.


Nice try tho

  

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Walleye
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:30 PM

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247. "Liberal technocrats: Trust us, we're the smart ones"
In response to Reply # 228


          

Liberal technocrats, three days later: We regret to inform you that democracy has been hacked by the Jerky Boys

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:05 PM

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252. "State-level election workers, most of them volunteers,"
In response to Reply # 247


          


are not "liberal technocrats."

And if you really want the state to seize the means of production you're putting a lot more faith in people's abilities than any liberal technocrat does.

  

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Vex_id
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279. "LOL. "
In response to Reply # 247


          

>Liberal technocrats, three days later: We regret to inform
>you that democracy has been hacked by the Jerky Boys

Maybe it was a tag-team hack this year between Dunston in an Iowa basement and Wladimir in a Kiev hostel. Be AFRAID.


-->

  

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Vex_id
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238. "Chair Perez calls to recanvass caucus vote; says "enough is enough""
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/buttigieg-sanders-neck-neck-iowa-nearly-all-votes-reported-n1131261?fbclid=IwAR27AowYwNmQ2l6zA4BcNvbkNxpn50Jsso2YkpgTCZ4hAXegbtCllZ0ot8o

When even the Chair doesn't have faith in the results? Yikes.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:02 PM

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240. "they havent even fully released the original results."
In response to Reply # 238
Thu Feb-06-20 01:03 PM by Reeq

          

and why announce that on twitter?

supposedly the idp was blindsided by this.
https://twitter.com/jeffzeleny/status/1225472426894647296

why not just get together with the idp and come up with a plan and *then* announce it?

all this for a relatively meaningless number of delegates in a state where the top 2 candidates will be in a virtual tie regardless.

trump is doing an authoritarian victory lap to celebrate being unshackled from any real accountability and the leaders of our party are bumbling around like a monkey fucking a football.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:08 PM

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241. "So now the DNC is blindsiding Iowa on twitter? "
In response to Reply # 240
Thu Feb-06-20 01:09 PM by legsdiamond

          

Trump is laughing at us.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:53 PM

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250. "this"
In response to Reply # 240


          


>
>all this for a relatively meaningless number of delegates in a
>state where the top 2 candidates will be in a virtual tie
>regardless.


At this point, the party needs to just move the f*ck on. Even putting aside announcing it via twitter tough guy, it just doesn't seem worth it to add fuel to the fire here.

Not to mention...to do it as Bernie was gaining on Pete?...its like they WANT people to believe the conspiracies.

Learn your lessons and move on to the next one.


>
>trump is doing an authoritarian victory lap to celebrate being
>unshackled from any real accountability and the leaders of our
>party are bumbling around like a monkey fucking a football.

Right. I don't know if there is precedent for a party chair to quit in the middle of a cycle, but a part of me really wonders if Perez is cut out for this. I could be off, just seems like he's the type of dude who will galaxy brain a loss from the clutches of victory.

I'd take Dean's screaming ass back.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:05 PM

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251. "enough is enough!"
In response to Reply # 250


          

wtf did he think he was doing there? lol.

im sorry. tom perez could be a brilliant organizational leader and great tactician. but everything about him publicly projects weakness and incompetence.

now the idp is basically rebuffing his authority to call a recanvass.
https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1225489437494251520

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:13 PM

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254. "lol yikes"
In response to Reply # 251


          

>wtf did he think he was doing there? lol.
>
>im sorry. tom perez could be a brilliant organizational
>leader and great tactician. but everything about him publicly
>projects weakness and incompetence.
>
>now the idp is basically rebuffing his authority to call a
>recanvass.
>https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1225489437494251520

Ouch. Definitely going to take the cool out of his walk today.


I'll defer to you on his ability to organize, etc because I honestly don't know enough about him. Just seems like he'd be a better candidate for something rather than this- maybe it is just the weakness he projects.

It sucks, but you probably want someone running the DNC who may or may not have helped hide a body at some point. Especially when you look at how the other side plays it.

Trumpolini and the GOP are doing a victory lap for being above the law, and Perez is impersonating an internet tough guy demanding the spreadshpeets be rechecked...and he doesn't even have the authority to do so.

And, as you pointed out, for what? Iowa is about the next day/week bounce. Its over.

  

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stravinskian
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:42 PM

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257. "There's a reason nobody had heard of the DNC..."
In response to Reply # 254
Thu Feb-06-20 02:42 PM by stravinskian

          

until they became Sanders bogeymen.

They don't do anything that any of us needs to care about.

And now it feeds pointless and destructive media narratives when people who were never supposed to be political leaders are treated like political leaders.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:54 PM

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260. "yeah i was gonna mention this."
In response to Reply # 257


          

nobody cared about the head of dnc until 2016 and wasserman-schultz.

its a mundane administrative position but now its become an ideological flashpoint.

  

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Vex_id
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:57 PM

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261. "RE: yeah i was gonna mention this."
In response to Reply # 260


          

>nobody cared about the head of dnc until 2016 and
>wasserman-schultz.

And rightfully so. Nobody should really care about the head of the DNC. It's akin to a referee in a prize-fight. They should largely be invisible, simply there to ensure a fair fight.

The only reason to care about a boxing (or a DNC) official is when there's an occurrence of impropriety and/or clear bias, which was demonstrated in 2016 - which is really the only reason people care at all.

And in that context, they should care.



-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 03:18 PM

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262. "You mean until watshername Shultz made an ass of herself. "
In response to Reply # 257


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Thu Feb-06-20 03:29 PM

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264. "No, until Bernie fed gullible people the delusion that she had power"
In response to Reply # 262


          


over the race.

The DNC is, to Bernie, what the "deep state" is to Trump.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 03:36 PM

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266. "Lmao. I hope they pay you well. "
In response to Reply # 264


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
12776 posts
Thu Feb-06-20 03:53 PM

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274. "And I hope your life is as exciting as the movie in your head."
In response to Reply # 266


          

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:22 PM

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283. "yall gotta stop with this shit. "
In response to Reply # 266


          

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 09:10 PM

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300. "Nah.. y’all need to stop blaming Bernie for some of these fuck ups. "
In response to Reply # 283


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:21 PM

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244. "do-over! smh"
In response to Reply # 238


  

          

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:26 PM

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245. "thats not what a recanvass is."
In response to Reply # 244
Thu Feb-06-20 01:41 PM by Reeq

          

https://twitter.com/TomPerez/status/1225479350461632523
-----
A recanvass is a review of the worksheets from each caucus site to ensure accuracy.

The IDP will continue to report results.
-----

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Thu Feb-06-20 01:35 PM

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248. "DNC is like “find more votes for Biden”"
In response to Reply # 244


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:30 PM

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255. "The DNC doesn't have the legal power to force a recanvas."
In response to Reply # 238
Thu Feb-06-20 02:34 PM by stravinskian

          

The IDP is not the DNC.

Keep that in mind, Bernie Bros, as you're connecting pieces of string all around your corkboards.

  

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legsdiamond
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:41 PM

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256. "Lmao"
In response to Reply # 255


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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275. "Bernie Bros dude.. like totally dude, yeeeeah."
In response to Reply # 255


  

          

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:20 PM

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282. "i mean...they *are* a big reason why we are in this mess."
In response to Reply # 275
Thu Feb-06-20 04:21 PM by Reeq

          

https://twitter.com/badler/status/1225503553202118657
https://twitter.com/badler/status/1225503746110709760
https://twitter.com/badler/status/1225504016160956416

receipts:
https://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13364831&mode=full#13365114

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 02:52 PM

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259. "apparently several people complained about satellite sites"
In response to Reply # 238
Thu Feb-06-20 03:00 PM by Reeq

          

and how sde's are being awarded. something the bernie campaign might have gamed or at least benefited from (they specifically targeted these satellite sites).

https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1225494446206279686
https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1225494859085119490

https://twitter.com/spinons/status/1225299448974249985
https://twitter.com/spinons/status/1225299512568274950
https://twitter.com/spinons/status/1225299570441228288
https://twitter.com/spinons/status/1225299683318300673
https://twitter.com/spinons/status/1225299725630550017
https://twitter.com/spinons/status/1225299759239442432

this shit is too complicated for me so ima prolly bow out at this point. let these caucuses die a necessary death. itll be better for elections in the future (assuming we still have them).

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Thu Feb-06-20 03:31 PM

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265. "This should honestly be the last year for caucuses. It's down to 6 "
In response to Reply # 259


  

          

with Maine already looking at the front door. And they're talking about online caucuses now? Just die already.

  

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Reeq
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267. "theyre actually bringing online voting to states like wv."
In response to Reply # 265
Thu Feb-06-20 03:42 PM by Reeq

          

i think for just absentees and military right now. but even still.

i dont see how anyone can watch elections unfold the last 3 years and still be like 'lets make them even less secure and more fuckupable'.

i have no idea why we cant just do pen and paper like the less corrupt western democracies.

  

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Vex_id
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268. "Nothing is as egregious as the Black Hawk County debacle"
In response to Reply # 259


          

Black Hawk County lead official had to take to social media to explain how their totals were significantly different than the state party's results, and was frustrated as to why his results hadn't been reported (even days after their tally was complete).

Also, has anyone explained how in the world Deval Patrick (who didn't even campaign in Iowa) was suddenly getting 5, even 6%? lol.

This is going to require a thorough audit and analysis as to exactly what went wrong - and why.

-->

  

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Reeq
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270. "or just nuke the entire site from orbit. its the only way to be sure."
In response to Reply # 268


          

>This is going to require a thorough audit and analysis as to
>exactly what went wrong - and why.

  

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Vex_id
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272. "Yea - the only silver lining to all this is hopefully we get reform"
In response to Reply # 270


          

both in the party infrastructure and in the primary process itself.

The Iowa Caucus should go extinct after this week. If Iowa still gets to retain its FIN status - it should shift to a simple primary system. I'd also push for Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa & New Hampshire to vote on the same day - which would feature both geographic and demographic diversity in a bundled FIN vote.

-->

  

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Reeq
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Thu Feb-06-20 03:59 PM

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276. "ive seen a few people suggest this and it makes the most sense."
In response to Reply # 272


          

>I'd also push for Nevada, South
>Carolina, Iowa & New Hampshire to vote on the same day - which
>would feature both geographic and demographic diversity in a
>bundled FIN vote.

such a relatively inconsequential and unrepresentative state like iowa shouldnt have the type gravity/influence it does by being the singularly first state.

im ok with tradition. but once that tradition works *against* the party (like the percentage of 1st time caucus goers dropping from year to year) then it defeats the purpose.

the amount of time and money people have to spend there starting like a year in advance...only to be forgotten in the next week...is ridiculous.

  

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Vex_id
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258. "Iowa Chair Troy Prince responds to DNC call for a recanvass:"
In response to Reply # 0


          

“While I fully acknowledge that the reporting circumstances on Monday night were unacceptable, we owe it to the thousands of Iowa Democratic volunteers and caucusgoers to remain focused on collecting and reviewing incoming results.

Throughout the collection of records of results, the IDP identified inconsistencies in the data and used our redundant paper records to promptly correct those errors. This is an ongoing process in close coordination with precinct chairs, and we are working diligently to report the final 54 precincts to get as close to final reporting as possible.

Going forward, we are fully committed to the integrity of the preferences expressed by dedicated, passionate, and fervent Iowa Democrats. This caucus opened new opportunities for accessibility that were never available before – including over 1,500 caucusgoers attending satellite caucuses in senior living centers, Mosques, and overseas, and first-of-their-kind Spanish language and hand sign sites. This process will not be complete until we honor them.

Since the beginning of the process, we have taken unprecedented steps to gather redundant reports to ensure accuracy of all underlying data. The IDP is nearing completion in collecting redundant materials from all 1,756 precincts, including hand-collecting materials from all 99 counties which are securely stored in Des Moines.

Should any presidential campaign in compliance with the Iowa Delegate Selection Plan request a recanvass, the IDP is prepared. In such a circumstance, the IDP will audit the paper records of report, as provided by the precinct chairs and signed by representatives of presidential campaigns. This is the official record of the Iowa Democratic caucus, and we are committed to ensuring the results accurately reflect the preference of Iowans.”

The Iowa Democratic Party has 48 hours to respond to a valid, written, request for recanvass. Any request for recanvass must include the scope and credible explanation of the reasons of the request.

-->

  

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Reeq
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263. "hey vex did you write this article?"
In response to Reply # 258


          

https://twitter.com/KatrinaNation/status/1225434519643316225
-----
Tulsi Gabbard in New Hampshire/ Gabbard’s emphasis on transforming US foreign policy gives her campaign an appeal that cuts across party lines—and defies traditional definitions of left and right. via @thenation

https://t.co/ImSABNdxBJ
-----

homegirl got 15 total votes in iowa (less than bloomberg who wasnt even officially on the ballot) and theyre talking about her appeal that cuts across party lines lol.

  

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Vex_id
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269. "I know how much you love Michael Tracey"
In response to Reply # 263


          

Tulsi abandoned Iowa - just like Patrick. Yet somehow Patrick magically was getting significant results in Iowa (although apparently that was in error now lol).

But Tulsi will likely finish top 5 in NH - and I'd expect for her to make a decision shortly after N.H. as to who she'll support in this primary.


-->

  

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Reeq
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Thu Feb-06-20 03:48 PM

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271. "top 5? over klobuchar?"
In response to Reply # 269


          

>But Tulsi will likely finish top 5 in NH - and I'd expect for
>her to make a decision shortly after N.H. as to who she'll
>support in this primary.

  

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Vex_id
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273. "She's consistently polled in the top 6 - behind Amy"
In response to Reply # 271


          

But admittedly it would take a pretty remarkable surge to overtake Amy. So top 6.

-->

  

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handle
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280. "What a load of shit"
In response to Reply # 273


          

Top 6? Didn't you even watch the fucking Chris Rock film???


Top 6?

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:23 PM

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284. "lol"
In response to Reply # 280


  

          

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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285. "lol fam"
In response to Reply # 280


          

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Thu Feb-06-20 04:46 PM

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287. "LOL! Great news everyone, I'm polling top 10 in NH"
In response to Reply # 280


          


I think I'll take it all the way to the convention...

  

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Vex_id
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288. "lol y'all brought her up and asked for her standing in NH"
In response to Reply # 280


          

She certainly did better than Kamala & Beto - who y'all syced for months.

Question for the Bloomberg boys: How's he doing?
-->

  

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Reeq
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289. "did better than kamala & beto?"
In response to Reply # 288


          

they consistently polled better than her and raised more money. and they will both have a political career when this is all over.

they dropped out when they figured they didnt have a shot at winning (like most serious politicians).

tulsi just stuck around longer because she doesnt care about actually winning. and she trashed her political career in the process.

  

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Vex_id
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299. "certainly was better managed - both fiscally and stylistically "
In response to Reply # 289


          

Kamala & Beto had all the advantages (from both donors, the party itself, and public perception) - yet they both flamed out unceremoniously. Kamala even claimed she couldn't afford to continue (financially) when other teams ran superior campaigns with a fraction of her budget.

Also - both Beto and (especially) Kamala were regarded as front-runners (by even you yourself) - yet never came even close to living up to the bill.

With regards to where the candidates were charted to perform at the onset, there's no doubt that both Kamala & Beto got out-performed by lesser names and opening acts.

>tulsi just stuck around longer because she doesnt care about
>actually winning. and she trashed her political career in the
>process.

We'll see about that. Your predictions do not age well, so excuse me if I don't put much stock in this one either.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Thu Feb-06-20 05:16 PM

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290. "i just realized *nobody* is talking about andrew yang."
In response to Reply # 0
Thu Feb-06-20 05:21 PM by Reeq

          

yang gang been mad quiet since those results started rolling out.

might be one of the bright spots of the iowa caucus.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Thu Feb-06-20 05:45 PM

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291. "there are stories about him"
In response to Reply # 290


  

          

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/06/yang-fires-dozens-of-staffers-after-iowa-debacle-111611

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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292. "damn lol"
In response to Reply # 291


          

  

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Rjcc
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294. "it's not a real campaign. "
In response to Reply # 290


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Mynoriti
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Thu Feb-06-20 07:20 PM

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296. "*pours some out for my boy* :("
In response to Reply # 290


  

          

  

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Rjcc
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297. "he needed that donation fam!"
In response to Reply # 296


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Mynoriti
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Thu Feb-06-20 07:36 PM

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298. "true. true"
In response to Reply # 297


  

          

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Fri Feb-07-20 07:54 AM

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313. "RIP MATH"
In response to Reply # 296


  

          

  

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Walleye
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Fri Feb-07-20 08:18 AM

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314. "Bloomberg's passed him in "non-sequitur celebrity endorsements""
In response to Reply # 296


          

Mellencamp is going to deliver that "lawnmower dads with 23 year old daughters named Madisyn who can't find the right balance between ironic and sincere when they sing 'Jack and Diane' at karaoke with their boyfriend who is an aspiring professional gamer" demographic.

And I got like 1/3 of the way writing that terrible joke until I realized that it was probably real and we're all going to die.

https://twitter.com/johnmellencamp/status/1225102646857650184

John Mellencamp
@johnmellencamp

I was born in a Small Town. And I live in a Small Town. But the reality is, Small Town America is disappearing. And
@MikeBloomberg will fight for them. https://youtu.be/0uNLM8Hxas0 via
@YouTube

#mikebloomberg #johnmellencamp #smalltown

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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T Reynolds
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Fri Feb-07-20 08:39 AM

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315. "Hashtag Smalltown "
In response to Reply # 314
Fri Feb-07-20 08:39 AM by T Reynolds

  

          

WHEN HAS BLOOMBERG EVER FOUGHT FOR 'THE LITTLE GUY' NOT NAMED MICHAEL BLOOMBERG

Where the FUCK did this endorsement come from? Why is The Coug throwing his hat into this now? Did they pay him off?

Bruce Springsteen clearly wasn't available for that coveted #smalltown endorsement. I bet you he's a fucking human garbage Bernie Bro.



  

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Walleye
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319. "Careful, you're awaken the manlet caucus "
In response to Reply # 315


          

>Bruce Springsteen clearly wasn't available for that coveted
>#smalltown endorsement. I bet you he's a fucking human garbage
>Bernie Bro.

"Fucking human garbage Bernie Bro Springsteen has been calling women 'little girl' in songs for over forty years and writing fascist patriotic anthems like 'Born in the USA' which Ronald Reagan used on the campaign trail"

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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T Reynolds
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Fri Feb-07-20 10:55 AM

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322. "I was inspired by El Bloombito's op-ed in the NYT today"
In response to Reply # 319


  

          

This part awoke my inner Commie Che

"Some who are wealthy will call me a traitor to my class. But that’s what they called Franklin and Theodore Roosevelt. Like them, I’ll wear the label as a badge of honor — and I’ll use the new tax revenue, an estimated $5 trillion over 10 years, to invest in America in ways that reduce inequality, strengthen the middle class and restore faith in the promise of the American dream."

but then here:

"That is what leadership is all about: bringing people in both parties together to get results. Over my 12 years as mayor,"

LET ME STOP YOU RIGHT THERE YOU BILLIONAIRE FUCCBOI

  

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Walleye
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325. ""Results" seems super menacing here"
In response to Reply # 322


          

Wow. I really hated reading that.

He seems to me the administratively competent, polite fascist that Trump has been foreshadowing. He participates in the proper liberal gestures while absolutely squeezing the life out of poor and working people and any real working class movement. And he owns his own media company. That does political reporting. And which announced alongside his candidacy that they didn't intend to investigate any of the democratic candidates, including their boss, Michael Bloomberg.

I'd be curious to hear him explain how he envisions the job of "president" in a way that doesn't also describe "feudal lord."

Absolutely fuck this monster.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:50 PM

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339. "Glad you are seeing through the facade as well. So many don't."
In response to Reply # 325


  

          

Let's put the myth of the 'Good Billionaire' to bed, number one.

Number two, as soon as Bloomberg came out apologizing for stop and frisk OUT OF NOWHERE I knew this vague 'thinking of running' was going to solidify into a real campaign. The problem is that the public has turned against the practice and general sentiment has been against it for a few years now. To come out and apologize for instituting and enforcing stop and frisk so far after it became unpopular, to hit the right notes, apologize in the right communities, and look so earnest in doing so, all to expressly place himself within the current socio-political sphere of today's Democratic party is really some sociopath shit.

>He seems to me the administratively competent, polite fascist
>that Trump has been foreshadowing. He participates in the
>proper liberal gestures while absolutely squeezing the life
>out of poor and working people and any real working class
>movement. And he owns his own media company. That does
>political reporting. And which announced alongside his
>candidacy that they didn't intend to investigate any of the
>democratic candidates, including their boss, Michael
>Bloomberg.
>

  

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Walleye
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347. "*nods furiously*"
In response to Reply # 339


          

>Number two, as soon as Bloomberg came out apologizing for stop
>and frisk OUT OF NOWHERE I knew this vague 'thinking of
>running' was going to solidify into a real campaign. The
>problem is that the public has turned against the practice and
>general sentiment has been against it for a few years now. To
>come out and apologize for instituting and enforcing stop and
>frisk so far after it became unpopular, to hit the right
>notes, apologize in the right communities, and look so earnest
>in doing so, all to expressly place himself within the current
>socio-political sphere of today's Democratic party is really
>some sociopath shit.

Shocking that people aren't more afraid of him.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Rjcc
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376. "LOL I missed this whole episode"
In response to Reply # 314


          


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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Vex_id
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293. "IDP “mistakenly” awarded Sanders delegates to Patrick"
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://youtu.be/c-KPPNwh6FM

Lol I’m dying.

Patrick? Maybe this is how he got to be featured in the CNN town hall tonight despite being rock bottom in the polls?

This is ugly.

-->

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
12776 posts
Thu Feb-06-20 07:06 PM

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295. "So now Sanders is claiming a "very strong victory""
In response to Reply # 0


          


after coming in even with a 38 year old small-town mayor in a low-turnout caucus.

Nah, not Trumpy at all!


Also, when is he gonna bring all that votah turnout he keeps promising? Isn't the idea that he'd bring out masses of new voters supposed to be the ENTIRE argument for his political strength? And now he's claiming a 'decisive victory' over a 6000 vote lead in one particular measure of the popular vote?

  

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fif
Member since Feb 23rd 2004
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Thu Feb-06-20 09:34 PM

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301. "^mad"
In response to Reply # 295


          

https://media.tenor.com/images/107f7a7e224abcad6e8141bfc17d0e84/tenor.gif

  

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fif
Member since Feb 23rd 2004
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Thu Feb-06-20 09:44 PM

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302. "btw doesn't turnout"
In response to Reply # 295


          

have a lot to do with whether there is an incumbent POTUS or not? couldn't find comprehensive numbers quickly but 2008 was a record setter, 2012 down, 2016 set records and 2020 has been down. having both parties going at it would, i think, drum up participation all around

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:05 PM

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305. "2016 was not high turnout for Democrats."
In response to Reply # 302


          

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/

Overall primary turnout was high in 2016, because the Republican turnout was way up. Donald Trump was doing the thing that Sanders has never succeeded at doing.

But Dem turnout in '16 only significantly beat '96 (Clinton reelection, obviously turnout was low), '00 (Gore v Bradley; I voted Bradley but the race didn't last long), and '04 (The nomination when we HAD to beat George W Bush. So there's an encouraging parallel.)

We only have one contest so far this cycle, but in that one we're down even from 2016.

  

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fif
Member since Feb 23rd 2004
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:31 AM

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309. "RE: 2016 was not high turnout for Democrats."
In response to Reply # 305


          

>https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/
>
>Overall primary turnout was high in 2016, because the
>Republican turnout was way up. Donald Trump was doing the
>thing that Sanders has never succeeded at doing.
>

i appreciate the figures. but be cautious reading too much into turnout tea leaves. seems to me trump hit them with obama 08 level hype, sorta thing hillary was never going to do coming off 8 years of president obama. sanders hasn't been in obama 08 or trump 16 position before: coming off 8 years of 'the bad guy in charge'.

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 09:03 AM

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318. "That's not an argument for how he can win."
In response to Reply # 309


          


It's an excuse for when he loses. "Turns out people weren't mad enough about Donald Trump. The voters failed to give me the high turnout that I promised I'd deliver."

If the central argument for his campaign is that he'll ignite 'massive voter turnout,' and repeatedly fails to even reach high voter turnout, then he has no argument.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Thu Feb-06-20 09:57 PM

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303. "Man...you HATE you some Bernie Sanders lol"
In response to Reply # 295


          

Like I can hear your keyboard keys slamming through my speakers.
I'm starting to not believe you when you say you'd vote for him if he was the nominee lol

_______________________________________

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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304. "None of our candidates are any good."
In response to Reply # 303


          

We're fucked at a time when we can least afford it. It's not a happy situation. Is Pete Buttigieg gonna be the guy we put up against Donald Trump? He seems to be the best politician we have left. There's a campaign slogan.

We're fucked, in part, because of the cannibalistic behavior that Sanders has built his entire persona around.

The only argument Sanders has ever made about how he could win a general election is that he'd excite a huge number of first-time voters. But he's never done it. He's winning with the first-time voters, but he's not significantly increasing their numbers. He never has, but it's still his argument. People talk like he's a phenomenon because he has so many small-dollar donors. But the actual number of distinct donors is negligible compared to the number of voters you need in a general election. I'm offended, in part, by the basic innumeracy that we have to exhibit to take him seriously.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:08 PM

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306. "If Trump can win, Sanders can win"
In response to Reply # 304
Thu Feb-06-20 11:23 PM by PimpTrickGangstaClik

          

I look at Sanders as a polite Trump. Only has one note. Plays only the hits at rallies. Simplistic, extremish positions. Plenty of people hate him. Plenty love him.
I.e. wholesome Donald Trump.

Around this time in 2016 Trump was tearing the Republican party in half. He was turning off "moderate Republicans". There were big name Republican never Trumpers.
If that wasn't cannibalistic, I don't know what is. And he won. So inter party chaos doesn't bother me.

I think Sanders' big personality is a valuable asset at a time like this. Someone loud and wrong but speaks with passion and conviction. I don't think a policy wonk (Pete or Warren) can win in this current environment. People will come around if they need to, just like they did for Trump. I hope.

I don't love him, but I think he's a tool that has a decent chance to get the job done.

_______________________________________

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Thu Feb-06-20 11:57 PM

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307. "He's not as good as Trump is at playing Trump's game, though."
In response to Reply # 306


          


Sanders can exploit people's reflexive (and I think justified) distrust of billionaires.

Trump can exploit people's reflexive racism and xenophobia.

Which of those wins out?

Sanders has promised to upset the US health care system in precisely the ways Republicans (falsely) claimed Obama would. And that disinformation over health care basically cut off Obama's ability to make any laws at year 2.

Trump has found a way to run on Obamacare (without the name), even while he's actively trying to dismantle it. A candidate who was running on preserving Obamacare might be able to call him out on it. A candidate who's running on the platform even Trump knows is too dangerous, could not.

On issue after issue after issue, what Sanders promises, Trump can exceed.

Maybe there's no such thing as a candidate who could beat Trump. I don't know. But I've never found an argument for Sanders the least bit convincing, against a real Republican, or against a fascist like Trump.

  

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fif
Member since Feb 23rd 2004
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:53 AM

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311. "gotta play the game to win"
In response to Reply # 307


          

politicians overpromise, it's what they do.

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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317. "The problem is not that he overpromises."
In response to Reply # 311


          


The problem is that he doesn't overpromise as well as Trump does. The premise we're discussing here is one where Sanders tries to campaign like Trump. My point is he's not a good enough liar to win with that strategy. Nobody is, so I don't think that should be anyone's strategy.

  

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fif
Member since Feb 23rd 2004
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312. "bernie has stood up to"
In response to Reply # 307


          

institutional scorn for decades and people generally like him. you want your perfect wonk demographics-in-the-palm-of-his-hand candidate? or you want bernie vs trump. you are caught up in the weeds. he's the guy.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:00 PM

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326. "I wonder if folks like Mitch Landrieu and Sherrod have regrets"
In response to Reply # 307


          


On one hand, I could see either/both of them going the Beto route.


Then again, Amy is still there so Sherrod probably would be.


Mitch had some heat from the statue thing, can give a good speech, and kind of looks like the Commish. Hell, that last point has to be worth 2 or 3 polling points.

I have to believe he or at last his people are looking at Pete thinking "this fucking guy?!?"


Curious if you still think Pete isn't a serious candidate? Do you think surrogates could help him in areas?




  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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333. "I'm honestly coming around on Pete."
In response to Reply # 326


          

Probably because I'm losing hope in Biden and Warren (not that I've fully given up on either).

I haven't watched many of Pete's speeches, but he seems almost as skilled at the practice as Obama was. That's not the only thing Obama brought to the table, of course, but it was such a crucial skill for Obama, and one that contrasts so well with Trump, that we really should keep it in mind. With Biden the best I could say is "he's not so bad when he has a teleprompter." Bernie's a good speaker if you already like him. I can report that he's almost as grating as Trump is if you don't like him.

And Pete does bring some other factors to the table. Youth really could be a good thing (it will definitely help him in the primary, not as certain in a general against a professional bully). The idea of a gay president will be exciting to many (and infuriating to many, so that might be a wild card). The fact that he served in the military (just reserve, but he did go to Afghanistan) is a plus for a lot of voters (though he will be swiftboated). And while he doesn't have much political experience, he is highly educated and highly competent. A Rhodes Scholar. If he's open to expert advice, which he seems to be, I think he could be a really good president.

Still, it's really far from the ordinary to jump from small-town mayor to president. And the fact that he's not been on the scene means we have no idea what unexpected things might come up. I highly doubt he initially thought of this run as anything other than a way to raise his profile, maybe set the stage for runs in 4 or 8 years, maybe a cabinet appointment, maybe a VP spot. He honestly might have thought "Joe Biden will need someone young on his ticket." I think a lot of Dem senators and governors will be kicking themselves if we settle on the 38 year old. Then again, Kamala gave it a run, Gillibrand, Booker, Castro. There's no reason to think necessarily that Brown or Landrieu or any other obvious name would have a better chance of catching on than them. And I doubt either one of them thought either Biden or Sanders was unbeatable. They could have jumped in at the stage when Deval Patrick did (and who knows, maybe he can find some traction in the states he's been running in). Maybe the whispers about skeletons might be right. I'm sure by now all the people who've bowed out are seething over every little strategic blunder -- if they'd stuck around longer we might have been able to come around to them.

At this point I'm not thinking "no dem can win." Really what I'm thinking is "at this point it's Trump's race to lose." If the next recession finally arrives, then any Dem would win. If "the fever breaks" and a few people who voted for Trump finally start seeing through his bullshit, then any Dem would win. And if Dem GE turnout happens to come like it did in 2018, and if Trump isn't able to excite the kind of turnout that he did in 2016, then any Dem would win decisively and we might even (briefly) hold the senate. As far as Dem strategy, I think the only way to do that is obamacare obamacare obamacare. Relentless reminders that preexisting conditions are covered now because of democrats, and that whatever he says, Trump is actively working to end that. Pete (or Biden, if he's up to it) seems like the best one to make that case.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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352. "RE: I'm honestly coming around on Pete."
In response to Reply # 333


          

>Probably because I'm losing hope in Biden and Warren (not
>that I've fully given up on either).
>
>I haven't watched many of Pete's speeches, but he seems almost
>as skilled at the practice as Obama was. That's not the only
>thing Obama brought to the table, of course, but it was such a
>crucial skill for Obama, and one that contrasts so well with
>Trump, that we really should keep it in mind.

I don't think he is touching Obama on speeches, but in interviews he comes across calm, intelligent, etc. And I do agree that having a candidate who contrasts with Trump would better than just our version of him.

I like Bernie, but I can wee why people wouldn't. While I personally really like the idea of Bernie calling him a spoiled brat to his face, I'm not sure how the yelling and stuff would play.

Pete has also mastered working Christianity into things. I think its fake as shit but people could fall for it.


>
>And Pete does bring some other factors to the table. Youth
>really could be a good thing (it will definitely help him in
>the primary, not as certain in a general against a
>professional bully). The idea of a gay president will be
>exciting to many (and infuriating to many, so that might be a
>wild card). The fact that he served in the military (just
>reserve, but he did go to Afghanistan) is a plus for a lot of
>voters (though he will be swiftboated). And while he doesn't
>have much political experience, he is highly educated and
>highly competent. A Rhodes Scholar. If he's open to expert
>advice, which he seems to be, I think he could be a really
>good president.

I think his inexperience is actually a perk these days. I know you disagree, but I think America loves an outsider. I'm mostly thinking about his chances of winning, I'm not even pondering a Pete presidency.

But saying vague shit like "We need to change Washington" plays.

I also wonder how Trump bullying a vet would play, but then again he gets away with fucking everything.

I do worry about the gay thing- not just for his chances but for his own sake, honestly. I could see that getting really ugly.

My biggest worry about his chances (again, I'm only talking about Pete winning. Some around here will read this and think I'm a Pete fan. I'm not....just thinking about winning)

is I have my doubts that he could enlist enough lets just say moderates to make up for people who WOULD be turned off by his wine cave candidacy, his sexuality, his lack of experience, and whatever dirt they dig up.

In other words, I'm worried it would all add up to a loss.

Because I'm bored and like to armchair this shit, who do you see as a VEEP for him?



>
>Still, it's really far from the ordinary to jump from
>small-town mayor to president. And the fact that he's not been
>on the scene means we have no idea what unexpected things
>might come up. I highly doubt he initially thought of this run
>as anything other than a way to raise his profile, maybe set
>the stage for runs in 4 or 8 years, maybe a cabinet
>appointment, maybe a VP spot. He honestly might have thought
>"Joe Biden will need someone young on his ticket." I think a
>lot of Dem senators and governors will be kicking themselves
>if we settle on the 38 year old. Then again, Kamala gave it a
>run, Gillibrand, Booker, Castro. There's no reason to think
>necessarily that Brown or Landrieu or any other obvious name
>would have a better chance of catching on than them.

I don't think he did either, I think he had his eyes set on VP.

Anyway, that's why I bring up a guy like Mitch because Pete catching on like he has seems random as hell to me.

When I compare his rise to Booker's fall, I think white privilege plays a huge part of course. But I also think Dem's thirst for a midwestern candidate also plays a part, which is why I wonder if Mitch could have caught on due to being from the south, being an "oustider", and giving a great speech.

(and again, I'm just brainstorming people's chances of winning and he was on CNN the other night)

And I
>doubt either one of them thought either Biden or Sanders was
>unbeatable. They could have jumped in at the stage when Deval
>Patrick did (and who knows, maybe he can find some traction in
>the states he's been running in). Maybe the whispers about
>skeletons might be right. I'm sure by now all the people
>who've bowed out are seething over every little strategic
>blunder -- if they'd stuck around longer we might have been
>able to come around to them.

Right. It really is odd how quickly some of them faded, but Pete lived on.

>
>At this point I'm not thinking "no dem can win." Really what
>I'm thinking is "at this point it's Trump's race to lose." If
>the next recession finally arrives, then any Dem would win. If
>"the fever breaks" and a few people who voted for Trump
>finally start seeing through his bullshit, then any Dem would
>win. And if Dem GE turnout happens to come like it did in
>2018, and if Trump isn't able to excite the kind of turnout
>that he did in 2016, then any Dem would win decisively and we
>might even (briefly) hold the senate. As far as Dem strategy,
>I think the only way to do that is obamacare obamacare
>obamacare. Relentless reminders that preexisting conditions
>are covered now because of democrats, and that whatever he
>says, Trump is actively working to end that. Pete (or Biden,
>if he's up to it) seems like the best one to make that case.
>

I've never hoped for a recession in my life until now.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:06 PM

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327. "I don't know man"
In response to Reply # 306
Fri Feb-07-20 12:09 PM by Stadiq

          

>I look at Sanders as a polite Trump. Only has one note. Plays
>only the hits at rallies. Simplistic, extremish positions.
>Plenty of people hate him. Plenty love him.
>I.e. wholesome Donald Trump.
>
>Around this time in 2016 Trump was tearing the Republican
>party in half. He was turning off "moderate Republicans".
>There were big name Republican never Trumpers.
>If that wasn't cannibalistic, I don't know what is. And he
>won. So inter party chaos doesn't bother me.

Republicans are far more loyal and show up to the booth no matter what.


>
>I think Sanders' big personality is a valuable asset at a time
>like this. Someone loud and wrong but speaks with passion and
>conviction. I don't think a policy wonk (Pete or Warren) can
>win in this current environment. People will come around if
>they need to, just like they did for Trump. I hope.

I don't know about this either. I imagine there could be "loud and wrong" fatigue.

This isn't just a Bernie criticism. One of the many reasons I think Biden would be a bad candidate is his style/gaffes/etc.

I agree the Dem candidate needs passion, but I am really skeptical of how effective two old dudes yelling at each other can be for us. Folks will probably just get fed up and stay the fuck home.

I caught boy wonder on Colbert. I can see the appeal on a superficial level. He's a calm, smart dude, who kind of sort of a little bit talks like Obama.

If I didn't know anything about his record, his campaign, or anything- I'd look at him as a breath of fresh air.

This isn't an endorsement of Pete as the candidate, because I can't stand him honestly. But if I try to be objective, I can see the appeal on a superficial level.


>
>I don't love him, but I think he's a tool that has a decent
>chance to get the job done.

I'm a much bigger fan of Bernie than Strav, and I would guess you. I just can't picture him winning the general.

  

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fif
Member since Feb 23rd 2004
2166 posts
Fri Feb-07-20 01:41 AM

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310. "RE: None of our candidates are any good."
In response to Reply # 304


          


>The only argument Sanders has ever made about how he could win
>a general election is that he'd excite a huge number of
>first-time voters. But he's never done it. He's winning with
>the first-time voters, but he's not significantly increasing
>their numbers. He never has, but it's still his argument.
>People talk like he's a phenomenon because he has so many
>small-dollar donors. But the actual number of distinct donors
>is negligible compared to the number of voters you need in a
>general election. I'm offended, in part, by the basic
>innumeracy that we have to exhibit to take him seriously.
>

innumeracy? and then you run that analysis? ha. charitably, you were mailing it in a bit there, no? pretending 1 distinct donor = 1 vote and no more! is a bit dense

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 08:46 AM

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316. "Where do you think I made that assumption?"
In response to Reply # 310


          


>pretending 1 distinct
>donor = 1 vote and no more! is a bit dense

Did you see me say anywhere that he needs as many donors as he needs votes? That would indeed be a stupid argument.

What I DID say was that one number is *negligible* when compared to the other. Negligible, meaning: you can't use one to reliably estimate the other.

If you want to get slightly more technical about it, the deeper problem is that the conversion would rely on a large multiplier, which is highly uncertain and varies a lot from one candidate to another. Just because the donor number is 'big' (by some arbitrary standard unrelated to votes), does not mean that his eventual vote number is 'big' (by a totally different, and much higher standard). The former, while big, is negligible compared to the latter. The argument that lots of donors implies lots of voters, is unsound.

By now we have plenty of empirical data on what the multiplier is for Sanders. We've seen him raise money from historically large numbers of donors for five years now, and we still haven't seen him get the high voter numbers he's promised in a primary or a caucus. In pundit language: he hasn't been able to turn his donors into votes, something Barack Obama succeeded at and Pete Buttigieg might be succeeding at (we have too little data on Buttigieg to know for sure). In the case of the Iowa caucus (admittedly a bizarre system, but one that actually favors a fervent supporter base), Bernie's multiplier really might have been of order 1, and that should be terrifying.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Fri Feb-07-20 09:43 AM

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320. "Hate isn’t a strong enough word.. lol"
In response to Reply # 303


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 10:14 AM

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321. "Oh I despise him. I thought I was making that pretty clear."
In response to Reply # 320


          


He's a symbol of most of the Democratic party's worst and most self-defeating instincts.

  

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Vex_id
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:43 PM

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331. "You've essentially become what you hate in politics lol"
In response to Reply # 295


          

Attacking supporters of other candidates at every opportunity, constant smearing, name-calling (never-ending "Bernie Bro" rants), self-serving grand-standing and threats of voting 3rd party (you said you'll vote Bloomberg over Sanders if Bloom runs as an Independent) to stop the nominee even if it means re-electing Trump.

Wildly, a second Trump term seems peculiarly more palatable for you than a Sanders nomination.

You've become the ultimate Bernie Bro.

-->

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:18 PM

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337. "Suuuuuure."
In response to Reply # 331


          

>Attacking supporters of other candidates at every
>opportunity,

I never said we shouldn't attack bad or destructive candidates.

>constant smearing,

Just Bernie. I have mixed feelings about everybody else and I've made that pretty clear.

>name-calling (never-ending
>"Bernie Bro" rants),

I only started the "Bernie Bro" thing very recently, and only because the contingent of strongest Bernie supporters here (you, reaction, Bignick, SP1200, Walleye I guess) really do tick all the boxes, and behaved in the way we'd expect Bros to behave in the Sanders/Warren dustup.

>self-serving grand-standing

Wait, which one of us was it who made a long post cherry-picking facts to claim clairvoyance on how the Iowa Caucus would turn out?

>and threats
>of voting 3rd party (you said you'll vote Bloomberg over
>Sanders if Bloom runs as an Independent) to stop the nominee
>even if it means re-electing Trump.

I did not say if it means reelecting Trump. Would it constitute grandstanding for me to quote myself? "That is, if the third-party Bloomberg started beating Bernie in the general election polls, which I assume he would."

In that scenario, Sanders becomes the spoiler, not Bloomberg.

>Wildly, a second Trump term seems peculiarly more palatable
>for you than a Sanders nomination.

Maybe you're projecting here. In historical terms, a failed Sanders presidency is more damaging for the progressive movement than a failed Trump presidency. But that's the kind of if-if-if thinking that the Bernie Bros indulge in. We don't live in historical terms. In the here and now, Trump needs to be removed. Period. And *that* is the fundamental reason I don't like Sanders. He's the least-equipped person to do that.

>You've become the ultimate Bernie Bro.

Did I accidentally say at some point that Elizabeth Warren, who actually did the academic research that formalized much of modern progressive economic thought, should drop out of the race so that her voters can go over to Bernie Sanders, as if she co-opted her life's work from him? I don't think I did that. If so, I apologize.

  

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Vex_id
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:35 PM

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338. "lol struck a nerve?"
In response to Reply # 337


          


>I never said we shouldn't attack bad or destructive
>candidates.

Of course, you are the arbiter of who is "bad" and "destructive" - especially because your predictions have been predictive only in one way: they're predictably wrong. So I'm glad you're actually reading predictions from analysts who are more accurate in their forecasts.

>>constant smearing,
>
>Just Bernie.

Gosh, that's equitable.

In historical terms, a failed
>Sanders presidency is more damaging for the progressive
>movement than a failed Trump presidency.

Only in the world where someone is fortunate enough to not have to deal with the consequences of a second Trump presidency. Perhaps you do not suffer any immediate consequences of this Administration, but many don't have the luxury to take such an abstract position to where they convince themselves a Trump re-election may actually be *better* for them than a Sanders administration.

But please tell us more about this crystal ball that you use to where you just *know* how irreversibly damaging a Sanders administration would be.

>>You've become the ultimate Bernie Bro.
>
>Did I accidentally say at some point that Elizabeth Warren,
>who actually did the academic research that formalized much of
>modern progressive economic thought, should drop out of the
>race so that her voters can go over to Bernie Sanders, as if
>she co-opted her life's work from him?

Nobody else did that either, but nice try. However, in retrospect, a time is coming where Warren may have to make that decision. Perhaps you can e-mail her local field director and make the case as to why she needs to coalesce with Bloomberg now to top Bernie because he's "more dangerous to the Progressive movement than Trump", according to our Bloomberg Boy over here. Please let me know how that goes.


-->

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:16 PM

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345. "RE: lol struck a nerve?"
In response to Reply # 338


          

>
>>I never said we shouldn't attack bad or destructive
>>candidates.
>
>Of course, you are the arbiter of who is "bad" and
>"destructive"

Yes, when I'm deciding who to criticize, I make a decision about who I think is "bad" or "destructive." Do you ask me who you're allowed to criticize?

>- especially because your predictions have been
>predictive only in one way: they're predictably wrong. So I'm
>glad you're actually reading predictions from analysts who are
>more accurate in their forecasts.
>
>>>constant smearing,
>>
>>Just Bernie.
>
>Gosh, that's equitable.

No it isn't, and that's the point. Am I supposed to pretend that all candidates deserve the same amount of criticism? Are you really gonna go with the "Fox News: Fair and Balanced" argument? When's the last time you "smeared" Bernie or Tulsi?

Those of us who might seem to criticize Bernie more than others do it because we think he's earned more criticism than others. Maybe because he's "worse" in some way, maybe just because the stakes are higher for him. You disagree. Good for you. You're welcome to make your case. It's not my fault that you're not very good at it.

>In historical terms, a failed
>>Sanders presidency is more damaging for the progressive
>>movement than a failed Trump presidency.
>
>Only in the world where someone is fortunate enough to not
>have to deal with the consequences of a second Trump
>presidency.

Yeah, that's what it said in the rest of the paragraph that you chopped off. You really think you can misdirect me about precisely what I JUST said?

>But please tell us more about this crystal ball that you use
>to where you just *know* how irreversibly damaging a Sanders
>administration would be.

Oh, thanks for the interest, but I talk about that all the time! Also, I just found out that I'm supposed to criticize all the candidates equally. I really need to get to work on Michael Bennet!

>>>You've become the ultimate Bernie Bro.
>>
>>Did I accidentally say at some point that Elizabeth Warren,
>>who actually did the academic research that formalized much
>of
>>modern progressive economic thought, should drop out of the
>>race so that her voters can go over to Bernie Sanders, as if
>>she co-opted her life's work from him?
>
>Nobody else did that either, but nice try. However, in
>retrospect, a time is coming where Warren may have to make
>that decision.

What makes you think she'd want her supporters to go over to Sanders? What makes you think she'd trust him to co-opt her ideas? Yes, they're both "progressives," but Warren is an academic, while Sanders didn't even like going to school and now rants about the "elites" like an openly anti-intellectual Republican. Maybe Warren's more interested in having her supporters go over to, I dunno, Pete.

But MAYBE, maybe there's more to why she's running than just the fact that certain people say she sounds a lot like Bernie Sanders. Maybe she's her own candidate, making decisions based on her own movement, which is NOT Bernie's movement or anybody else's.

  

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Vex_id
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361. "Cool."
In response to Reply # 345


          

Hope your tireless mission to sow division in the primary and make character assessments of people on the internet you don't know works out for you.

-->

  

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Walleye
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340. "It sucks that nobody else is calling you on this"
In response to Reply # 337


          

>I only started the "Bernie Bro" thing very recently, and only
>because the contingent of strongest Bernie supporters here
>(you, reaction, Bignick, SP1200, Walleye I guess) really do
>tick all the boxes, and behaved in the way we'd expect Bros to
>behave in the Sanders/Warren dustup.

I've never made any argument personal with you, not like this.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:28 PM

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348. "I hesitated on listing you there."
In response to Reply # 340
Fri Feb-07-20 02:38 PM by stravinskian

          

(that's what the "I guess" was for)

I honestly think there's more to how you think about these things than there is to someone like Vex or reaction. And I'm not always sure what to make of the other guys, because they're not as vocal.

So yeah, I apologize on that.

Still, is "Bernie Bro" such a stinging epithet? The way we all talk to each other around here, a cliche like that is hurting people's feelings?

You "make it personal" about me on a regular basis. It goes with the territory. We all know each other and we critique each other. That's just how it works in these threads of 10 or 20 people making 400 posts.

  

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Walleye
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349. "Show me, or apologize"
In response to Reply # 348
Fri Feb-07-20 02:39 PM by Walleye

          

>You "make it personal" about me on a regular basis.

You're using "Bernie Bro" here as a way to smuggle in accusations of racism and sexism. I'm perfectly happy to be called out when I need to un-fuck my language, so just dropping that in there without pointing to some specific offense is fucked up. I've been posting here for twenty years and I know a number of people on this board personally, so stuff like that matters to a degree. If you're going to try and slide in accusations of sexism and racism from some posts about politics on a message board, you should have to show your work.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:51 PM

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353. "This is the one that comes to mind."
In response to Reply # 349


          

>>You "make it personal" about me on a regular basis.

https://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13362000&mesg_id=13362000&page=3#13362156

Implying that I'm generally an elitist (which I am, but you meant it as a criticism). And the thing about the "unsettling feeling" around the same time that you were repeatedly arguing that only psychopaths think they're qualified to be president.

But yes, I edited and added an apology.

I also honestly never meant to imply (even to the extent that I'd call you a Bernie Bro, which I hedged from the original post) that Bernie Bros are always racist or sexist. Bros are bros in a whole variety of ways. I've always seen it more as a statement of cultishness than anything else. I've accused Vex of sexism specifically, but he quite honestly earned that.

  

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Walleye
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357. "Oh, fair - but that's not actually what I meant"
In response to Reply # 353
Fri Feb-07-20 03:06 PM by Walleye

          

I knew I'd articulated that poorly at the time. When you said that, you identified a feeling I'd had before (for a far stupider reason, for a far better candidate) which was along the lines of:

"I'm pretty sure that (candidate) isn't even as qualified to be president as I am, and I'm sure as hell not qualified to be president."

That's the feeling I understood as disquieting. Like, what if I woke up and were suddenly president? I would rightfully freak out because that seems like a complete disaster and now this (candidate) is in there going "elect me!"

>I also honestly never meant to imply (even to the extent that
>I'd call you a Bernie Bro, which I hedged from the original
>post) that Bernie Bros are always racist or sexist.

Fair enough.

Now, if you really want something to dig in on me with, I'll tell you the manifestation of that "disquiet" that I had, which is much less legitimate than yours: Al Fucking Gore

Which is hilarious, because when the sea rises and boils and we're all loaded into ranches so Trump's sons can hunt us for sport, we'll probably look back on the 2000 election as the one that actually killed (simultaneously, even) American democracy and the environment. But Al Gore went to Vanderbilt Divinity School (which I turned down) to study the same thing that I did and apparently, was quite bad at it. My lizard brain in 2000 couldn't possibly get comfortable with:

-somebody who went to Divinity School becoming president
-somebody who did worse than me in Divinity School being president

Again, entirely stupid. But "disquieting" is what it was. Like the transitive property for elections: if I'm too stupid to be president and this guy tried the same thing as me and was somehow stupider, he cannot be president.

And to clear up one more point that I've apparently made poorly: I believe thinking you're qualified to be president is fine. It's a pretty spectral notion anyhow. What makes somebody a sociopath is wanting to be president at all. The sheer power of the United States over the lives of billions of people makes the statement "i should be in charge here" morally insane to me. That sentiment may also be worthy of scorn, but it isn't quite the same thing.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 03:13 PM

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359. "Well this ended up going better than I would have expected."
In response to Reply # 357


          


Many interesting points here, but I don't have time to reply in detail.

I think we understand each other better now.

Thanks for calling me out on it.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:32 PM

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350. "He believes Bernie is the reason Hillary lost to Trump"
In response to Reply # 340


          

so now he is going scorched earth in 2020.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:53 PM

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354. "Yes and yes."
In response to Reply # 350


          


He's far from the only reason. And he's more a symptom than the cause. But I won't dispute your characterization.

  

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Vex_id
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362. "Basically. Even Bloomberg thinks Sanders would've beat Trump"
In response to Reply # 350


          

in 2016.

Hell, even Trump's own internal pollsters thought so.

Probably the *only* candidate we could've run (out of Sanders, Clinton, Warren, Biden etc..) in 2016 that would lose to Trump was the one with historic unfavorables that was force-fed to us: Hillary Clinton

Not surprisingly, that's who Strav thought was the strongest candidate positioned to defeat Trump.


-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Fri Feb-07-20 04:56 PM

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363. "She came close tho.. lol"
In response to Reply # 362


          

and she got more votes.. lol.

I just thought she was so unlikable it was obvious it wasn’t going to be a slam dunk.

not even a layup.

but she ain’t practice at all the last few weeks before game time.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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kfine
Member since Jan 11th 2009
2218 posts
Fri Feb-07-20 11:14 AM

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323. "100% reporting's posted (all 1765 precincts), might as well update the p..."
In response to Reply # 0
Fri Feb-07-20 11:44 AM by kfine

          

Edit: Added some more info I found interesting re: 2nd alignment and demographics

State Delegate Equivalents (Counts)
==========================
https://results.thecaucuses.org


State Delegate Equivalents (Percentages)
=========================

1) Buttigieg 26.2%
2) Sanders 26.1%
3) Warren 18.0%
4) Biden 15.8%
5) Klobuchar 12.3%


Electoral Map (light green is Buttigieg, light blue is Bernie)
==============
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa


Top 5 1st alignment (raw vote count) *source:https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
===================
1) Bernie Sanders 43,671
2) Pete Buttigieg 37,557
3) Elizabeth Warren 32,533
4) Joe Biden 26,384
5) Amy Klobuchar 22,469


Top 5 2nd alignment (raw vote gains) *source:https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
===================
Edit: I did this over because it turns out Biden did worse here than Steyer lol. Also, excluding anyone that received less than 1000 votes on 1st alignment (Gabbard, Bennet, Patrick) because their 2nd alignment losses would be a bit misleading in comparison to the others

1) Pete Buttigieg +5368
2) Elizabeth Warren +2238
3) Bernie Sanders +2155
4) Amy Klobuchar -1288
5) Tom Steyer -2670
6) Joe Biden -2693
7) Andrew Yang -7041


Pretty much a statistical tie, but Buttigieg did eek out with 0.1% more SDEs which is the relevant unit. Even if he hadn't tho: not a bad performance at all for a dude who started this effort with a staff of like 3-4 people (including himself and a childhood friend lol) and like near zero name id or war chest or mailing list or expansive donor network to start with. That's pretty cool. Will be interesting to see how future races pan out.



Edit: Found this article with some interesting demographic info:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/pete-buttigieg-iowa-win.html

Last week in Iowa, former Vice President Joe Biden explained why Democrats should nominate him for president. “Some things are just a self-evident contrast,” he told reporters, taking a dig at Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana. “I’ve gotten more than 8,600 votes in my life.”

That was a reference to the relatively small population of South Bend, where Buttigieg won his first election with fewer than 11,000 votes and his second with barely 8,500. Biden was raising a legitimate question: Why should Democrats entrust their nomination to the 38-year-old former mayor of a minor city? Why should they believe that Buttigieg, in a race against President Donald Trump, could perform as effectively as Biden?

On Monday night, Buttigieg answered that question. He crushed Biden in the Iowa caucuses. As of Wednesday morning, with more than 70 percent of precincts reporting, Sen. Bernie Sanders was narrowly leading the popular vote, thanks to big margins in left-leaning parts of the state. But Buttigieg, by assembling a broad coalition of progressives, moderates, suburbs, and small towns, was winning the “delegate equivalent” count—Iowa’s version of the Electoral College. Biden was clinging to fourth place, behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren and barely ahead of Sen. Amy Klobuchar, with fewer votes than Buttigieg won in his two elections in South Bend.

In the wake of this drubbing, it’s fair to ask Biden’s question in reverse: Is Buttigieg the stronger candidate? For Democrats seeking an electable nominee, is Buttigieg the safer bet?

There are reasons to be skeptical. Iowa is just one state. It’s Midwestern, like Buttigieg, and it’s very white. In raw numbers, Sanders won the most support at the caucuses, and he’s leading the polls in New Hampshire. Biden still leads the field in national surveys, and he has generally outperformed other Democrats in matchups against Trump. But the Iowa entrance polls and caucus results make a case for Buttigieg, not Biden, as the candidate who can fend off Sanders and take down Trump.

Several candidates, including Biden and Klobuchar, have promised to beat Trump by building a coalition that reaches beyond the left. But in Iowa, Buttigieg proved that he can put together that kind of coalition. He won decisively among caucusgoers who called themselves “somewhat liberal”—a segment that represented more than 40 percent of attendees—and he tied Biden for the lead among moderates. Among independents, he trailed Sanders but outpolled Biden. As of Wednesday morning, Buttigieg was winning 60 of Iowa’s 99 counties. Sanders had 18 counties. Biden had seven.

Buttigieg did well in nearly every demographic. He was the first choice among women and the second (behind Sanders) among men. He was the first choice among people ages 45 to 64, the second choice among those ages 30 to 44, and—contrary to expectations—the second choice among those ages 17 to 29. He came in first among caucusgoers who had college degrees and second among those who didn’t. He also performed better than expected among nonwhites. Sanders won that constituency easily, but Buttigieg, at 15 percent, led the pack of candidates who trailed behind.

On issue after issue, Buttigieg was either the favorite or second favorite candidate. Among caucusgoers who cared most about health care, he tied for the lead with Sanders. Among those who cared most about foreign policy, he came in second to Biden. Among those who focused on electability, he tied for the lead, drawing 24 percent to Biden’s 23 percent. Sanders got 31 percent of first-time caucusgoers, but Buttigieg was next with 25 percent. In precincts where supporters of marginal candidates had to disband and move to a second choice, the candidate they chose—twice as often as any other candidate—was Buttigieg. He won by being broadly acceptable.

Sanders did well, but he lost nearly half the people who had caucused for him in 2016. He also didn’t generate the extra turnout he had promised. And Biden grossly underperformed his polls, falling below 15 percent in many precincts—the threshold at which a candidate’s supporters have to disband—contrary to his advisers’ predictions. On most issues and among voters younger than 45, Biden came in fifth, behind Warren and Klobuchar.

Few Democrats are excited about Biden. Among caucusgoers who cared more about candidates’ positions than about electability, only 5 percent chose him. He’s been propped up by high name identification, endorsements, his association with former President Barack Obama, and a general feeling among Democratic voters that he stands the best chance of beating Trump. But if he can’t beat the former mayor of South Bend and two senators who were stuck in an impeachment trial, maybe he’s not the safe bet.

Update, Feb. 6, 2020, 1:30 p.m.: Since I published this piece, Iowa has released more results. Accordingly, we have changed the headline from “How Pete Won” to “How Pete Beat Joe.” Nothing in the article has been changed. As of this update, with 97 percent of precincts tabulated, Buttigieg had 26.2 percent of state delegate equivalents, Sanders 26.1, Warren 18.2, and Biden 15.8.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Fri Feb-07-20 11:22 AM

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324. "definitely a tie"
In response to Reply # 323


  

          

they both get 11 national delegates right?

like ive said, this tie is a "win" for pete. no one expected him to do this well.

i still think this results helps bernie the most, biden's fall (if it continues) definitely benefits bernie the most. i see him building momentum.

pete has a real chance to build momentum too.

give me a reason to be hopeful for warren though.

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:17 PM

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328. "I think at this point Warren would need help"
In response to Reply # 324


          


And it pains me to say that because I think she would be the best president and, with the right VP, be the best at uniting the left/Dems.

I don't know if there are any important endorsements out there that could give her a boost?

Honestly I think her campaign needs some consulting or some shit. Any ex Obama campaign people looking for a gig?

I'm nervous...

And anyone who doesn't want candidate Pete should be imo.


I think if this thing starts to look like Bernie vs Pete, you'll see a lot of Dems rally around Pete. Probably even Obama, which could certainly help his demos. And the media loves Pete too.


  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:19 PM

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329. "warren definitely needs someone to help her campaign"
In response to Reply # 328


  

          

the news of her shrinking her ad buys is troubling. first real sign that she is starting to run out of money. i wanted to donate last night but im not sure i have much of a cushion to do so right now.

i really hope she finds a way to connect with people tonight.

  

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Vex_id
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:38 PM

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330. "The focus on SDE's has been misplaced and outdated "
In response to Reply # 323


          

They have no standing outside of Iowa as it pertains to the nomination.

Both Sanders & Buttigieg leave Iowa with 11 delegates. That's a tie.
But if there's any other meaningful stat to indicate who actually "won" - it would be pointing to the fact that Sanders won ~6,000 more votes in the Popular Vote. That's a significant amount of votes in a multi-candidate race in a smaller state (with relative low turnout) -where 5 candidates score in double digits.

Had this been a Primary (which the overwhelming majority of states are) - it'd be a decisive Sanders win.

-->

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
16347 posts
Fri Feb-07-20 12:47 PM

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332. "can i get some honest opinions on these bernie performance numbers?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

everybody knows im hard on bernie. but if hes gonna be our nominee (which is looking increasingly likely) then i want him to be the strongest nominee possible.

general disclaimer: this is only one state (with a volatile/exclusionary election format). it may end up being nothing or end up being something. but its worthy of discussion.

one of bernies strengths is supposed to be bringing out young and first-time voters. however the percentage of first-time caucusers fell *10%* from 2016.

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1224521988003246080
-----
Compared to previous years in Iowa, there has been a big dip in participants attending a Democratic caucus for the first time, @NBCNews Entrance Poll shows.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP5gQi3XUAAeu55?format=jpg&name=small

https://t.co/fuRxJSQ6Cy
-----

another one of bernies strengths is supposed to be winning back those disaffacted obama/dem voters. but...

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225778931686572032
-----
Iowa has more Obama-Obama-Trump counties than any other state -- 31 of its 99.

In the '16 caucuses, Clinton won 16 of them and Sanders won 15.

As of now, Buttigieg has won 21 of them, Sanders 7, Klobuchar 2 and Biden 1.
-----

so young voters or first time caucusers failed to come out in force for bernie (or anyone really) and p booty blew bernie out in those swing counties that dems want to get back in the blue column from the obama years.

head to head with p booty...

both of them spent nearly identical amounts of cash in iowa ($10.8 mil for bernie, $10.5 mil for pete)
https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/200203_abcnl_iowac_iowa_spending_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg
(lol @ steyer)

one of bernies strengths is supposed to be nabbing some of those small town and rural voters that 'establishment' dems traditionally cant pull. but bernie drew 28% liberal voters and only *11%* moderate/conservative. p booty drew a near even split with 20% liberal and 22% moderate/conservative.
https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2020_06/3214891/iowa_ideology_vcomp_a4937d57c9f14ff07a8c10c2692f205f.fit-760w.png

so bernie with national name id on par with biden/trump...and a carryover organization/infrastructure in the state from a 2016 prez run (where he tied clinton)...spent the same amount of money as the lesser known p booty...failed to produce a surge of young/first-time voters...lost handily in trump counties that previously voted for obama...and failed to appeal to mod/conserv voters at the level his closest competitor appealed to liberal voters.

iono fam.

if that young energy aint there...he aint winning back those deserting white working class voters he covets...and he isnt appealing to the broad ideological range of dem voters as much as p fucking booty lol...that doesnt concern anyone?


  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Fri Feb-07-20 12:53 PM

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334. "I'm honestly gonna stay out of this subthread."
In response to Reply # 332


          


Because I've already made my opinion very well known, but it's a subject worthy of serious discussion.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:07 PM

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335. "fam i actually *want* somebody to put a positive spin on those things."
In response to Reply # 334


          

to make me believe he would do great in the general if hes the nominee.

i thought bernie had other weaknesses. but if he aint even knocking down the things i thought were slam dunks for him...then we got some serious problems.

  

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handle
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:02 PM

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342. "There is nothing positive for Bernie except the win in number of votes"
In response to Reply # 335


          

.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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Vex_id
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:17 PM

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336. "Couple things:"
In response to Reply # 332
Fri Feb-07-20 01:22 PM by Vex_id

          

(1) Iowa & New Hampshire are among the two oldest states in the country. Sanders thrives in states with younger, more diverse populations (He dominates the under 35 vote both geographically and demographically). Large swaths of the "new-voter" electorate will come from states with younger populations

Iowa & NH are also both +90% white. Sanders dominated the non-white vote in Iowa (beat Biden in every metric), and has real advantages in states with low white populations.

All that being said, he *still* won Iowa (or at the very least tied) - despite it being far more designed for a candidate like Buttigieg, who has regional advantages (South Bend), features an essentially all-white support base, and appeals to older voters who are mostly moderate.

I actually think Iowa speaks to the strength of Sanders - not the weakness.

(2) Definitely some interesting and valid points on this enigmatic Obama-Trump voter. That's where Sanders will really need the help of the Democratic Party - to attract the Clinton-Kerry-Biden voter *and* still appeal to enough Independents to win some of those Obama-Trump voters back who the party lost in 2016.

But clearly - the Sanders strategy is to appeal more to disaffected voters, first-time voters, young voters, and non-traditional voters than it is to try and corral the center/center-right.

Given the changing generational/demographic dynamics of electorate in 2020 (Millennials now comprise as much of the electorate as Boomers) - I think that may be a wise bet. But we'll see.

The real test will be Super Tuesday - where we get a more aggregate picture of where the votes are trending based on a more representative sample-size of the country. But even before we get there, Sanders will likely be in the strongest position of them all after Iowa, NH, South Carolina & Nevada.




-->

  

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
5417 posts
Fri Feb-07-20 03:21 PM

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360. "This is bad"
In response to Reply # 332


  

          

>everybody knows im hard on bernie. but if hes gonna be our
>nominee (which is looking increasingly likely) then i want him
>to be the strongest nominee possible.
>
>general disclaimer: this is only one state (with a
>volatile/exclusionary election format). it may end up being
>nothing or end up being something. but its worthy of
>discussion.
>
>one of bernies strengths is supposed to be bringing out young
>and first-time voters. however the percentage of first-time
>caucusers fell *10%* from 2016.
>
>https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1224521988003246080
>-----

Damn, not a good sign.

>Compared to previous years in Iowa, there has been a big dip
>in participants attending a Democratic caucus for the first
>time, @NBCNews Entrance Poll shows.
>
>https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP5gQi3XUAAeu55?format=jpg&name=small
>
>https://t.co/fuRxJSQ6Cy
>-----
>
>another one of bernies strengths is supposed to be winning
>back those disaffacted obama/dem voters. but...
>
>https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225778931686572032
>-----
>Iowa has more Obama-Obama-Trump counties than any other state
>-- 31 of its 99.
>
>In the '16 caucuses, Clinton won 16 of them and Sanders won
>15.
>
>As of now, Buttigieg has won 21 of them, Sanders 7, Klobuchar
>2 and Biden 1.
>-----
>

What ? 7 damn

>so young voters or first time caucusers failed to come out in
>force for bernie (or anyone really) and p booty blew bernie
>out in those swing counties that dems want to get back in the
>blue column from the obama years.
>
>head to head with p booty...
>
>both of them spent nearly identical amounts of cash in iowa
>($10.8 mil for bernie, $10.5 mil for pete)
>https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/200203_abcnl_iowac_iowa_spending_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg
>(lol @ steyer)
>
>one of bernies strengths is supposed to be nabbing some of
>those small town and rural voters that 'establishment' dems
>traditionally cant pull. but bernie drew 28% liberal voters
>and only *11%* moderate/conservative. p booty drew a near
>even split with 20% liberal and 22% moderate/conservative.
>https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2020_06/3214891/iowa_ideology_vcomp_a4937d57c9f14ff07a8c10c2692f205f.fit-760w.png
>

The Bern is getting beat on his own turf by a rookie.

>so bernie with national name id on par with biden/trump...and
>a carryover organization/infrastructure in the state from a
>2016 prez run (where he tied clinton)...spent the same amount
>of money as the lesser known p booty...failed to produce a
>surge of young/first-time voters...lost handily in trump
>counties that previously voted for obama...and failed to
>appeal to mod/conserv voters at the level his closest
>competitor appealed to liberal voters.
>
>iono fam.
>
>if that young energy aint there...he aint winning back those
>deserting white working class voters he covets...and he isnt
>appealing to the broad ideological range of dem voters as much
>as p fucking booty lol...that doesnt concern anyone?
>
>

That's bad sign. The rest of this race will be interesting.

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Vex_id
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Fri Feb-07-20 01:57 PM

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341. "Buttigieg has received a purported *16%* bump in some NH polls"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Interesting that so many who - month after month - swore up and down that Biden was the strongest candidate - have already abandoned him after just one (poorly run) Caucus.

Lot of panic and uncertainty out there from those forever scrambling to identify the horse they want to bet on to top Sanders.

-->

  

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handle
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343. "Seems irrational don't it?"
In response to Reply # 341


          

Almost like people aren't focused on defeating Trump and more interested in a horse race and popularity contest.

------------


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Vex_id
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344. "So that's what you think the Buttigieg bump is about?"
In response to Reply # 343
Fri Feb-07-20 02:21 PM by Vex_id

          

>Almost like people aren't focused on defeating Trump

If the focus is on defeating Trump, backing Buttigieg (who hasn't performed as well as several other candidates against Trump in head-to-head polls) is going to carry the day?

Fascinating strategy.

-->

  

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handle
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346. "Yes, people will switch to perceived front runners"
In response to Reply # 344


          

They want their guy to win, so they will often switch guys. (Ladies are guys in that last sentence.)

It's why the media focus is no counter productive.

We didn't Iowa "results" for 4 days and all that really change was people ability to brag about a win for a few days.

That's what people are butthurt about "Pete spoke too soon" or "Bernie was robbed of a speech." And being robbed of a speech definitely hurts when the voters will switch based on nothing but poll results (and not on policy positions of thinking about how the candidate will do against the incumbent.)

I'll vote for ANY of them in the general - but there's a large group of people (Bernie supporters I'm looking at you) who will vote ONLY for their guy. If Bernie isn't the candidate I fully expect at least 50% of Bernie people to vote for a dog or Jill stein or just stay home.

It's what the republicans are counting on.

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:40 PM

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351. "I thought the GOP wanted Bernie to win? "
In response to Reply # 346


          

At least that was the narrative a week ago. Wouldn’t they want Bernie to lose so people “stay home”

I’m starting to think voters will stay home regardless of who wins because they aren’t really hurting that much.

Trump is an ass but the bills are paid and their belly is full.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Lurkmode
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:55 PM

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355. "Nah people will stay home "
In response to Reply # 351


  

          

because they are stupid.

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Fri Feb-07-20 02:59 PM

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356. "the rent is too damn high to not stay home"
In response to Reply # 355


  

          

need to maximize the utilization to get my moneys worth.

  

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Lurkmode
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358. "You know what you gotta do"
In response to Reply # 356


  

          

Vote for Trump to maximize the utilization.

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handle
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364. "The GOP wants to sow greievence between Democrats"
In response to Reply # 351


          

They want the least electable Democrat to be the nominee.

AND

They want the other candidate supporters to not ultimately support nominee.

And judging by the Bernie bros I've talked to IRL they won't vote for anyone except bernie. They call Biden SCUM, they say Pete is being paid off by billionaires, they say Hillary is trying to stop them, they say the Democratic Party is against them.

I think they are shitheads - but again, I will vote for Bernie if he's the nominee.

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legsdiamond
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Fri Feb-07-20 07:51 PM

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366. "Then wouldn’t they want anyone but Bernie?"
In response to Reply # 364


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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handle
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368. "No, they WANT Bernie or Pete"
In response to Reply # 366


          

They will destroy Bernie in large areas by simply playing clips of Bernie saying he's a "democratic socialist."

Forget what Bernie means when he says it - and imagine the people who are terrified of socialism.

That's my prediction - we'll see what happens.

Pete is 38 and Gay - pretty easy to go after him too with the Goobers all over the country.

Biden is the toughest for them - but don't worry - the Bernie and Pete people (and the Yang and Gabbard folks) will spend more time trying to destroy him than the Republicans will.



------------


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reaction
Member since Aug 09th 2019
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Sat Feb-08-20 02:36 PM

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369. "Trump HIMSELF said he was most scared of Bernie"
In response to Reply # 368


          

the only thing the Trump obsessed media doesn't talk about is this https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/25/only-one-i-didnt-want-her-pick-secret-recording-trump-admits-fear-clinton-picking

  

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legsdiamond
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374. "Man.. y’all hate Bernie so much it’s clouding your thinking. "
In response to Reply # 368


          

You said the GOP wants to sow division in our party.

You also claim Bernie Bro’s won’t vote for anyone but Bernie.

So why in the fuck would the GOP want Bernie as the nominee? Bernie adds his loyal cult bro’s along with the rest of the Dems and it’s a wrap for Trump.

Unless you are suggesting Bernie getting the nomination means other Dems will stay home and not vote... which basically kills the Bernie Bro’s ain’t shit argument.
———
Now I can see how they would want Pete to win. That would sow division. Just seems like some of y’all can’t make a post without bringing up the Bro’s... lol.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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makaveli
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365. "They do"
In response to Reply # 351


  

          

“So back we go to these questions — friendship, character… ethics.”

  

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makaveli
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370. "Here"
In response to Reply # 351


  

          

https://twitter.com/mattklewis/status/1226496463749943297?s=21

“So back we go to these questions — friendship, character… ethics.”

  

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reaction
Member since Aug 09th 2019
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Sat Feb-08-20 12:37 AM

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367. "RE: Yes, people will switch to perceived front runners"
In response to Reply # 346


          

1) >I'll vote for ANY of them in the general

2) >If Bernie isn't the candidate I fully expect at least 50% of Bernie people to vote for a dog or Jill stein or just stay home.

Uh. Then vote for Bernie.

  

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Vex_id
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371. "There is no evidentiary basis for this view:"
In response to Reply # 346
Sun Feb-09-20 06:07 PM by Vex_id

          

>there's a large
>group of people (Bernie supporters I'm looking at you) who
>will vote ONLY for their guy. If Bernie isn't the candidate I
>fully expect at least 50% of Bernie people to vote for a dog
>or Jill stein or just stay home.

More Clinton supporters in 2008 voted for McCain (15%) than did Sanders voters in 2016 who voted for Trump (12%). Further, Gary Johnson siphoned more of the Trump vote off in 2016 (with 3% of the vote) than did Stein to the Clinton vote - as she only accrued 1% of the vote.

Sanders voters in 2016 supported the eventual nominee at a higher clip than did Clinton voters in 2008. So this notion that Sanders voters are all going to vote third-party, vote Trump - or not support the eventual nominee has become a myth which lacks actual statistical credence.


-->

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Sun Feb-09-20 07:13 PM

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372. "Final delegate results: 14 for Pete, 12 for Sanders, 8 Warren, 6 Biden,"
In response to Reply # 0


          


and 1 for Klobberchar.

This is all modulo any recanvasses that the campaigns might request, though you'd think they would have requested it by now if they were planning on it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/iowa-officially-gives-buttigieg-largest-delegate-count-followed-closely-sanders-n1132531

  

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Vex_id
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Sun Feb-09-20 10:53 PM

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373. "Sanders Campaign to Request Partial Iowa Recanvass"
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/482267-sanders-campaign-to-request-partial-iowa-recanvass

The debacle never ends.

-->

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Feb-10-20 05:14 PM

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375. "Who won the Iowa Caucus? The AP (and others) refuse to say"
In response to Reply # 0


          

and with good reason: There remains egregious errors, inconsistencies, and blatant conflicts of interest in the administration of the Caucus itself.

Here's what we know as of now:

*After Iowa inexplicably awarded the extra national delegates to Buttigieg, the Sanders campaign requested a partial recanvass: https://thehill.com/…/482267-sanders-campaign-to-request-pa…

*It was confirmed that the company that developed the app (Shadow Inc.) features former Hillary for America high-level staffers/managers - and some of them (including the CEO) have direct associations with Pete Buttigieg's campaign: https://www.nytimes.com/…/poli…/ap-us-election-2020-app.html

*The Black Hawk County Chair in Iowa had to publicly call foul on the Iowa Democratic Party for "mistakenly" awarding Sanders delegates to Deval Patrick - who didn't even campaign in Iowa: https://www.democracynow.org/…/iowa_caucuses_bernie_sanders…

*This is how much each of the active campaigns donated to Shadow, Inc. — the app-developer for the Iowa Caucus.
Buttigieg: $42,500
Biden: $1,225
Klobuchar: $0
Warren: $0
Sanders: $0

Source: http://FEC.gov

*Mayor Pete's campaign spent an additional ~$90k on various Dem PACs and nonprofits in Q4 of 2019, including to 14 local Iowa Dem Party committees (including Black Hawk County) and two NAACP chapters in Nevada: https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/1226369469468921858

*The IA State Party Chair (Troy Price) is the former IA Leader for Hillary's Campaign. Under his leaderhship, Iowa Democrats won’t correct errors on caucus tally sheets: https://www.chicagotribune.com/…/ct-nw-nyt-iowa-caucus-erro…

*Nevada was also tapped to use this faulty app (developed by Shadow, Inc.) in its Caucus. Despite the debacle in Iowa, The Nevada Democratic Party nonetheless has hired a paid Buttigieg organizer (Emily Goldman) to be their “Voter Protection Director”: https://twitter.com/CANCEL_SAM/status/1226607764727791621

The conflicts of interest here are as clear as they could be - and there's been little effort to (a) correct the errors and inconsistencies in the Iowa Caucus; and (b) hold accountable the bad (and clearly biased) actors that have compromised the integrity of our elections.
-->

  

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