swiped from MMQB:

The Deep End

Every week this season, Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com has used PFF's play-by-play game analysis to provide an in-depth look at an important matchup or individual performance from one of the Sunday games. Last week we took a slightly different tack, examining defensive rookie of the year candidates. This week, Hornsby looks at the offensive candidates. His report (all statistics through 16 weeks):

As exciting and promising a start as Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has made, this award comes down to a battle between two players who haven't just reinvigorated their teams but have done so in a way that is directly attributable to the consistent excellence of their play. Luck has won some close encounters, but some have been due to his poor play to get the Colts into that position. Luck has had some terrific fourth quarters, but his overall play has been a roller-coaster ride. To me, this award is so closely balanced between Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III and Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson. How can we split these two outstanding players? I'll attempt to by going over key factors that determine a player's and team's success.

Supporting Cast: On the offensive line, Washington has an edge. This has been an area of strength for the Redskins, with only Tyler Polumbus at right tackle providing a significant weakness for defenses to target. Left tackle Trent Williams' Pro Bowl place was well-deserved, and center Will Montgomery was unlucky to miss out.
In Russell Okung and Max Unger, the Seahawks have players performing equally well at identical positions (LT and C) but the rest of the line has been far more fluid. While the play of Alfred Morris and Marshawn Lynch means support at running back is somewhat of a wash, pass-catcher injuries to Fred Davis and Pierre Garcon left huge holes and RGIII had to compensate, finding unexpected help when needed from players like Aldrick Robinson and Logan Paulsen. The Seattle receivers have rounded into a sure-handed group; the drop rate of both Golden Tate and Sidney Rice puts them in the top 15 in the league. Edge: RGIII -- his rotating receiving options means he's had the biggest problems and puts him slightly ahead here.
Consistency: Throughout the year Griffin is the only quarterback ProFootballFocus has not graded negatively in a single game; he has been the model of stability from his very first game against the Saints. He's never thrown more than one interception in a game (and only five total) and even in his worst performance (at the Steelers) never looked completely out of whack. In contrast, Wilson started shakily but has improved almost week by week. Eight of his 10 interceptions came in the first half of the season, and his Week 16 performance was his best, clinically dissecting the 49ers defense, one of the NFL's top two. Edge: RGIII.

Offensive Tailoring: From the very first series of Week 1 against New Orleans it was obvious that the Redskins had reconstructed their entire offense to fit the skills of their new passer. Griffin managed initially easy throws interspersed with read-option runs, then deeper play-action passes as the defenses bit up on the short stuff. Credit to Griffin for making the whole thing work superbly.
But Wilson is displaying a much fuller repertoire. Wilson is throwing deep (20 yards plus) the fourth-most in the league, with Griffin the second-least, and Griffin has thrown twice as many screens as his counterpart. Wilson's passing "grid" is significantly more balanced, and he utilizes the deep ball and throws outside the numbers far more often. Edge: Wilson -- He is making every throw, even the difficult ones, with a high degree of efficiency.

Injury Concerns: We all know Griffin has missed playing time, so maybe this is a slam dunk, but that would miss the point of just how good Wilson is when it comes to scrambling without taking undue risks. There's no doubt both players are equally fearless, but when Wilson scrambles he rarely takes big hits; he's incredibly elusive and has already avoided eight tackles on 45 scrambles compared to Griffin's three on 41. As a result he's also fumbled five fewer times than RGIII. Edge: Wilson.

In summary: Very tough call. After Week 15, PFF had Griffin just ahead and in our Pro Bowl squad too. After last week, Wilson just squeaked ahead of his rival. When pushed, my choice would be Wilson because I believe he has been less a product of the system and hence more difficult to take away. Regardless, I don't think there is a wrong answer between the two.


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