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So Haralbob Volgairs, noted NBA gambler, took to Twitter last night to complain that the Wolves were playing Wiggins 38 minutes in a game, because omg don't you know sports science has conclusively proved that playing minutes is bad?
I pointed out that minutes may not have the same negative impact in long term health for young players.
Haralbob: "tell me more, professor."
Me: a reply offering to build him models for a fee and a link to the wiki on logistic growth curves.
For some reason, he got silent.
But anyway, perfect example of how OE's trolltastic crusade is rooted in truth. In an effort to seem smart, people rely on fancy but flawed statistics, try to generalize results from a narrow study way too broadly, and numerous other things that any real quant person will tell you is a bad, bad idea. In the rush to accept advanced analysis (not just quant), we can't overlook the fundamental necessity to constantly validate our measures, results, etc.
And on the validation front, we have good reason to believe the impact of such analyses in basketball has been overstated. Yes, the Spurs won a title, and they used multiple advanced methodologies to gain an edge in player evaluation, coaching, etc. But Chuck was right that little of it matters if they don't draft Duncan, Parker, and Ginoblli in the pre analytics era, and Popp figured out pace and space well before analysis was sophisticated enough to influence the decision. memphis's success has almost nothing to do with Hollinger. Etc.
...or maybe bitchslapping a noted NBA personality made me feel warm and tingly and I wanted to brag about it. ---- bshelly
"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God
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