Printer-friendly copy Email this topic to a friend
Lobby General Discussion topic #13013733

Subject: "What Trump does in a primary...." Previous topic | Next topic
murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
23113 posts
Fri Apr-29-16 04:43 PM

Click to send private message to this authorClick to view this author's profileClick to add this author to your buddy list
24. "What Trump does in a primary...."
In response to In response to 0
Fri Apr-29-16 04:47 PM by murph71

          


...should not be dismissed...Trump is showing true power...He's showing the power to DESTROY the REPUBLICAN Party as we know it...That about it....

What Trump does in a primary where the party he is running under is damn near 90 percent WHITE does not translate to a general election...That's the issue...It's not about Trump beating expectations in a Republican Primary...It's that Trump's issues have less to do with his ability to turn on angry white folks (that's easy...) and more to do with EVERYONE ELSE LITERALLY HATING HIM....lol

Below is just an example...Latino voting registration has literally shot up...Y'all wanna guess why? It's all about demographics, which don't really matter in a primary....Read on...


---------------


The Hill
Hispanic voter registration spikes

By Rafael Bernal - 04/27/16 01:14 PM EDT
Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are also expected to vote against Trump if he is the Republican nominee, something that appears much more likely after the front-runner’s sweeping primary victories Tuesday in five East Coast states.

A whopping 80 percent of respondents in a poll of registered Hispanic voters in Colorado and Nevada said Trump's views on immigration made them less likely to vote for Republicans in November. In Florida, that number was 68 percent.

The figures are sparking confident tones from Democrats, who think their party’s nominee will benefit from a huge advantage in the fall not only in the presidential race but also in battles for the House and Senate.

Because of the contrast between the GOP and Democratic fields, “we feel absolutely confident about our chances of electing Democrats up and down the ballot in November,” said Walter Garcia, western regional communication director for the Democratic National Committee.

Many of the newly registered Hispanic voters are in California and Texas, relatively safe states for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

In fact, because so many Hispanic voters live in those states, the effect of the rising registration numbers will be somewhat undercut, according to Vargas.

Still, rising registration rates among Hispanics in Colorado, Florida and Nevada could make it easier for the Democratic candidate to retain those swing states. Even Arizona could be in play, say some poll watchers.

Registration is a game-changer with Hispanic voters.

Only about 48 percent of eligible Hispanics vote, but nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanics go to the ballot box.

Democrats have already targeted Colorado, Florida and Nevada with at least $15 million for Hispanic outreach, according to Vargas.

In Colorado, where 15 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, the demographic has already shown its ability to flip elections.

The 2016 Colorado Democratic caucuses were one of the first big tests for presidential candidate Bernie Sanders against rival Hillary Clinton. With nearly 30,000 newly registered voters and strong support from Hispanic millennials, Sanders beat Clinton by more than 20,000 votes.

President Obama won 51.5 percent of the vote in Colorado in 2012, compared to 46 percent for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. In Nevada, Obama won 52 percent of the vote to Romney’s 46 percent.

Arizona has been a relatively safe state for Republicans in recent presidential elections, but Democrats have long wondered if they could make it competitive.

Romney won 53.5 percent of the vote there in 2012, Obama 44.5 percent.

David Lublin, professor of government at American University, describes Arizona as “the sort of state that if Clinton starts moving into landslide or big-win territory, she could win.”

Yet the real danger for Republicans could be down the ballot — particularly in the battle for the Senate, where longtime Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) could be a target.

Obama won 74 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, according to exit polls by NBC.

A Democrat in 2016 would likely depend on larger Hispanic turnout and a larger share of the white vote to win the state.

Romney hurt himself with Hispanic voters in 2012 by suggesting that undocumented workers self-deport. He moved to the right on immigration and border security in the primary and was relatively quiet on the issue in the general election.

Both parties think Trump’s rhetoric, which has included insults directed at Mexicans and a plan to build a wall on the border and make Mexico pay for it, could be more difficult to overcome in a general election.

Trump has "motivated Latino voters," said Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.)

Immigration was shown by an America's Voice/Latino Decisions poll to be the primary issue driving Hispanics away from Republican candidates in 2016.

However, Hispanic voters nationally said the most important issue facing the country is the economy.

Ruth Guerra, Republican National Committee director of Hispanic media, gives little credence to the polls: “Not only is Latino Decisions on Hillary Clinton’s payroll, they have proven to be inaccurate time and again, so we will take their results in context.”

She also criticized Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, on immigration issues, accusing her of thinking Hispanics would have “amnesia.”

She noted that Clinton was opposed to giving drivers licenses to undocumented workers as a senator from New York but has now reversed her position.

“Clinton’s flip flops and hypocrisy on immigration are a mile long because she will tell voters anything to win an election,” Guerra said.

A win by a Democrat presidential candidate in Florida, Colorado and Nevada would make it very difficult for a GOP candidate to reach 270 electoral votes and win the White House.

In fact, Democrats could actually lose the swing state of Ohio but win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and get to 270 — simply by holding other states that have voted for the Democratic nominee in presidential elections for the last six cycles.

Jon Ralston, a veteran Nevada political journalist who is not surprised by the numbers, said, “The real problem is that Trump, and, to a lesser degree, Cruz, will drive up Hispanic turnout against Republicans."

He said the only path for the GOP nominee to the White House in such a situation would be to win more white votes.

Ralston described this as “a path we have never seen before. Huge increase in white vote.”

link: http://thehill.com/latino/277824-hispanics-in-swing-states-create-daunting-electoral-map-for-gop

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

Printer-friendly copy | Reply | Reply with quote


What's your percentage guess regarding Trump becoming President? [View all] , Case_One, Fri Apr-29-16 01:49 PM
 
Subject Author Message Date ID
What do you think?
Apr 29th 2016
1
he has a legitimate chance. im a betting man & i wouldnt bet against him
Apr 29th 2016
2
Blue
Apr 29th 2016
3
Van Jones said Trump only needs 30% of the Black Vote to win
Apr 29th 2016
4
      only? 30% is a lot
Apr 29th 2016
5
      Yeah, this election hinges on the white middle class
Apr 29th 2016
8
      When I saw him make that comment it was in light of Trump
Apr 29th 2016
10
           Yup. A lot of Dems like me don't like Hillary. It's hard to vote for her
Apr 29th 2016
13
      30% is a pipe dream. They've barely broken 10% in the last 40 years
Apr 29th 2016
30
           But the 2000 election was close, and Bush won without us in 2004.
Apr 29th 2016
32
           I know black people that can't wait to vote for trump
May 04th 2016
58
20 percent chance...
Apr 29th 2016
6
This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 29th 2016
7
      exactly... for 6 months we have predicted his downfall
Apr 29th 2016
9
      actually, conventional wisdom says
Apr 29th 2016
21
      RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 29th 2016
23
           RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 30th 2016
42
                RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 30th 2016
43
Green
Apr 29th 2016
11
People seem so afraid of it that they'd rather comfort themselves
Apr 29th 2016
12
If Bernie is the nominee? 10% chance
Apr 29th 2016
14
True!
Apr 29th 2016
15
^ Expects the election to be held in Oregon.
May 03rd 2016
53
      ^forgets he is just gonna vote for the Democrat anyway^
May 04th 2016
62
CERO POR CIENTO
Apr 29th 2016
16
20 to 25%
Apr 29th 2016
17
Never underestimate the blind anger of Americans
Apr 29th 2016
18
Zero
Apr 29th 2016
19
if it winds up Trump v Hil
Apr 29th 2016
20
he'll still win in deep red states like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas...
Apr 29th 2016
22
i don't see it
Apr 29th 2016
26
      Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states
Apr 30th 2016
40
           RE: Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states
Apr 30th 2016
41
Yeah Im not sure about that.
Apr 29th 2016
27
Wanna bet?
Apr 30th 2016
39
Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones.
Apr 29th 2016
34
      RE: Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones.
Apr 30th 2016
36
           Thanks for all your replies Murph.
Apr 30th 2016
37
                RE: Thanks for all your replies Murph.
Apr 30th 2016
38
I've been saying from the start not to underestimate him. I say 50/50.
Apr 29th 2016
25
about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack
Apr 29th 2016
28
RE: about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack
Apr 29th 2016
29
Yah.
Apr 29th 2016
31
0%. im just here for the spectacle and he's bringing it.
Apr 29th 2016
33
is less than zero a option
Apr 29th 2016
35
Trump is steam rolling people with common sense.
May 03rd 2016
44
nah, it isn't common sense
May 03rd 2016
45
The man is a snake oil salesman. He's roping people in with
May 03rd 2016
46
      A thinking person can see through this BS and emotional pandering
May 03rd 2016
47
           He is just saying what voters scream when they are watching the news
May 03rd 2016
50
                Yeah this whole HilTrump race is a nightmare.
May 03rd 2016
54
Not common sense. Simplistic explanations that sound right
May 03rd 2016
48
      Maybe we have a different standard for common sense
May 03rd 2016
49
      well its common sense to deliver his message this way
May 03rd 2016
51
           That's my point. He's winning and rolling over people with common sense
May 03rd 2016
52
                Is he winning over people with common sense or he has people
May 05th 2016
68
      That's precisely how I'd define common sense.
May 03rd 2016
56
Depends A LOT on how the race goes, but at this stage I'd say green.
May 03rd 2016
55
If Trump chooses Kasich as his VP his chances will be really good.
May 04th 2016
57
Less than zero now
May 04th 2016
59
RE: Less than zero now
May 04th 2016
60
      RE: Less than zero now
May 04th 2016
61
           ^^^ CORRECT ANSWER ^^^^^
May 05th 2016
71
I'm willing to take bets on if he makes it through the convention...
May 04th 2016
63
The News Say Only 30% Of The Voters Last Two Presidental Election
May 04th 2016
64
90%
May 04th 2016
65
Trump will win by a landslide.
May 04th 2016
66
those saying trump has no chance are greatly underestimating
May 05th 2016
67
Univision and Telemundo are yelling Trump is the antichrist 24/7
May 05th 2016
69
Trump is like that Chimpanzee with the AK47 - Unpredictable & Dagerous
May 05th 2016
70
This mutherfucka isn't trying to win this: "I love Hispanics!"
May 05th 2016
72
At this point, I can't even get mad at him anymore.
May 05th 2016
73
but check out what was underneath his taco salad
May 05th 2016
75
Low 20s, I guess, seems arbitrary but he has a chance, sure
May 05th 2016
74

Lobby General Discussion topic #13013733 Previous topic | Next topic
Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.25
Copyright © DCScripts.com