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Topic subjectWhat's your percentage guess regarding Trump becoming President?
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13013733
13013733, What's your percentage guess regarding Trump becoming President?
Posted by Case_One, Wed Dec-31-69 07:00 PM
I kept hearing all of these political Pundits talk about why Trump wouldn't make it out the gate. Then why Trump won't make it though the first debates. Then it was why Trump can't win any delegates. Now it's why Trump can't become presidential. Why Trump is looking like a fool and will fall flat.

But Guess What? This Crazy Bird is doing it his way and could possibly mess around an win it all. May listen. I don't want this DoofBall to win, but it's folks out here that believe in this Turd and are willing to take a face punch for him.

So yeah. President Trump could become a reality for the next 4 years

Poll question: What's your percentage guess regarding Trump becoming President?

Poll result (43 votes)
10 % - 20 % (11 votes)Vote
21% - 40% (15 votes)Vote
41% - 60 % (11 votes)Vote
61% - 80 % (3 votes)Vote
81% - 100% (2 votes)Vote
Hillary for the Win Suckers! (1 votes)Vote

  

13013738, What do you think?
Posted by Case_One, Fri Apr-29-16 01:55 PM

.
.
.
13013739, he has a legitimate chance. im a betting man & i wouldnt bet against him
Posted by BigJazz, Fri Apr-29-16 01:55 PM
straight up.



***
I ain't lyin. This shit i'm making up is true...
13013741, Blue
Posted by Marbles, Fri Apr-29-16 01:57 PM
But then I was certain that he wouldn't get the GOP nomination in the first place. *shrug* Still, primaries & caucuses are just a glimpse into a small portion of Republican voters.

I'd say he's got a 25% chance of beating the eventual Democratic nominee (looking like Clinton)
13013745, Van Jones said Trump only needs 30% of the Black Vote to win
Posted by Case_One, Fri Apr-29-16 02:00 PM
.
.
.
13013747, only? 30% is a lot
Posted by legsdiamond, Fri Apr-29-16 02:04 PM
but I don't think he needs that many.

I think the biggest concern is how many Black voters DONT show up to vote because it was all about Obama.

Plus I think if the GOP unifies plus all these new idiots show up we could be in for a fight in a few swing states.

everyone keeps talking about Trump needing us and Latinos but I think it comes down to how many GOP establishment voters stay home.

13013764, Yeah, this election hinges on the white middle class
Posted by Marbles, Fri Apr-29-16 02:31 PM

Trump probably won't get anywhere near enough voters of color for it to matter.

I think it's the middle class white voters that are the focus right now. Are they angry enough to join Trump and try to play John Wayne? Or are they as unnerved by him as a lot of other people are, enough to vote for Clinton (whom a lot of folks hate)?
13013778, When I saw him make that comment it was in light of Trump
Posted by Teknontheou, Fri Apr-29-16 02:54 PM
having higher favorability poll numbers among Blacks than any Republican candidate in a long time. Something like 20+% now, I think. IF that's true, that will be a problem for Hillary, plus people staying home on the Democratic side.
13013791, Yup. A lot of Dems like me don't like Hillary. It's hard to vote for her
Posted by Case_One, Fri Apr-29-16 03:12 PM
But I can't let my feelings get in the way of keeping Trump out of the White House.
.
.
.
13013984, 30% is a pipe dream. They've barely broken 10% in the last 40 years
Posted by Cocobrotha2, Fri Apr-29-16 07:53 PM
http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/presidential-elections/2012-presidential-election/

Go to the page for each year and click on Group Voting.
13013989, But the 2000 election was close, and Bush won without us in 2004.
Posted by Teknontheou, Fri Apr-29-16 08:12 PM
Barry's run was historic and that turnout won't be duplicated this time. So if Trump can get to even 15% of the Black vote, that's going to be a problem.
13016217, I know black people that can't wait to vote for trump
Posted by sweet ruffian, Wed May-04-16 04:52 PM
All 40-60 year old, men and women, in Southern California
13013750, 20 percent chance...
Posted by murph71, Fri Apr-29-16 02:05 PM

It's all in the demographics.....Trump would have to get more white people to vote for him than Reagan (the highest ever percentage, BTW...)....

And that ain't gonna happen....
13013763, This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Posted by Ted Gee Seal, Fri Apr-29-16 02:28 PM
>
>It's all in the demographics.....Trump would have to get more
>white people to vote for him than Reagan (the highest ever
>percentage, BTW...)....
>
>And that ain't gonna happen....

I'm sure I've read "that ain't gonna happen" or similar so many times only to watch Trump keep marching on and Bernie Sanders hang on in the race. Trump seems to be able to change message at will and doesn't pay the price for lying or contradiction.

I want to believe you. I really do, but these primaries have had a way of sowing doubt.
13013775, exactly... for 6 months we have predicted his downfall
Posted by legsdiamond, Fri Apr-29-16 02:49 PM
and he keeps getting stronger and stronger.

Now I definitely don't think he will get the minority voting % he needs but I could see Trump getting as many whypeeple as Reagan.

13013824, actually, conventional wisdom says
Posted by fontgangsta, Fri Apr-29-16 03:48 PM
that the democrats don't have a chance in hell of keeping the white house
the 2 term incumbent party swing is nearly impossible to overcome
but that doesn't account for motherfucking TRUMP as the nominee
if they take it away from him at the convention, and give it to any run of the mill "politician" (cruz included), it will be a razor tight race
but trump will get demolished in a general election
13013847, RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Posted by murph71, Fri Apr-29-16 04:27 PM
>>
>>It's all in the demographics.....Trump would have to get
>more
>>white people to vote for him than Reagan (the highest ever
>>percentage, BTW...)....
>>
>>And that ain't gonna happen....
>
>I'm sure I've read "that ain't gonna happen" or similar so
>many times only to watch Trump keep marching on and Bernie
>Sanders hang on in the race. Trump seems to be able to change
>message at will and doesn't pay the price for lying or
>contradiction.
>
>I want to believe you. I really do, but these primaries have
>had a way of sowing doubt.


What Trump does in a Republican primary is not at all shocking if u follow the bread crumbs....The Repugs made their own bed...

Trump is winning because:

--White working class feel like they have been left out of the economic picture...

--The base of the Republican Party has been lied too by their own people (WE WILL KILL OBAMACARE!!!!! OBAMA IS THE DEVIL WE WILL LOOK OUT FOR YOUR INTEREST!!!!)

--Companies shipping jobs overseas...KILLING the Middle Class...

But in a general election u need more than mad white folks...And that's the issue when it comes to the Republican party overall...The demographics are KILLING them...

In order to win Trump has to get 7 out of 10 pr white men to vote for him, which is damn near impossible...He also needs to get more votes than Romney did with minorities: blacks, Latinos, Asians....And WOMEN....

Trump beating Cruz and Kasich with the female or Latino vote ain;t anything to celebrate...Not when u r polling that 8 out of 10 Latinos have an unfavorable view of Trump...

Hillary Clinton is VERY lucky.....
13014178, RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Posted by Ted Gee Seal, Sat Apr-30-16 03:14 PM

>
>
>What Trump does in a Republican primary is not at all shocking
>if u follow the bread crumbs....The Repugs made their own
>bed...
>
>Trump is winning because:
>
>--White working class feel like they have been left out of the
>economic picture...
>
>--The base of the Republican Party has been lied too by their
>own people (WE WILL KILL OBAMACARE!!!!! OBAMA IS THE DEVIL WE
>WILL LOOK OUT FOR YOUR INTEREST!!!!)
>
>--Companies shipping jobs overseas...KILLING the Middle
>Class...
>
>But in a general election u need more than mad white
>folks...And that's the issue when it comes to the Republican
>party overall...The demographics are KILLING them...
>
>In order to win Trump has to get 7 out of 10 pr white men to
>vote for him, which is damn near impossible...He also needs to
>get more votes than Romney did with minorities: blacks,
>Latinos, Asians....And WOMEN....
>
>Trump beating Cruz and Kasich with the female or Latino vote
>ain;t anything to celebrate...Not when u r polling that 8 out
>of 10 Latinos have an unfavorable view of Trump...
>
>Hillary Clinton is VERY lucky.....

But... what if he just changes his message? The media have been really poor at pointing out how much of a liar he is and nailing him when he flip flops. Folks are saying he won't be able to tack to the middle, but what he does and those people are wrong about how effectively he can do that?
13014198, RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Posted by murph71, Sat Apr-30-16 04:24 PM

>>Hillary Clinton is VERY lucky.....
>
>But... what if he just changes his message? The media have
>been really poor at pointing out how much of a liar he is and
>nailing him when he flip flops. Folks are saying he won't be
>able to tack to the middle, but what he does and those people
>are wrong about how effectively he can do that?


Trump doesn't know how to change his message...He can't help himself....That's why all the chaos has been taking place inside his own campaign. The guy that was brought in to make Trump become more Presidential has now taken a back seat to that Cory Lewindoski (sp) dude; the same moron who became a front page story after manhandling a conservative female reporter...He was supposed to be swept under the rug...But now Cory is back running things and u can see his fingerprints all over Trump's last speech (back to the name calling and straight up bullshitting...)

Again, none of this means that Clinton's campaign should be overtly cocky...Trump is dangerous because he will do and say ANYTHING to win....But he can't tack on to the middle because there's too much that has been said already during THIS campaign....
In a general Trump won't be able to get away with his lying...Because now it's not just about getting angry white folks with an ax to grind against THEIR Republican party to vote for u....Now Trump has to play to a general audience...Clinton just needs to play her game and she will be alright...
13013784, Green
Posted by flipnile, Fri Apr-29-16 03:06 PM
I think folks will be surprised.
13013787, People seem so afraid of it that they'd rather comfort themselves
Posted by Teknontheou, Fri Apr-29-16 03:07 PM
by insisting it can't happen, rather than take it very seriously and fight to prevent him from winning.
13013792, If Bernie is the nominee? 10% chance
Posted by Mr. ManC, Fri Apr-29-16 03:14 PM
If Hillary is the nominee? Legit 30-50% chance

13013794, True!
Posted by Case_One, Fri Apr-29-16 03:16 PM

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.
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13015126, ^ Expects the election to be held in Oregon.
Posted by stravinskian, Tue May-03-16 09:49 AM
13016237, ^forgets he is just gonna vote for the Democrat anyway^
Posted by Mr. ManC, Wed May-04-16 05:28 PM
13013796, CERO POR CIENTO
Posted by LAbeathustla, Fri Apr-29-16 03:16 PM
¿Me sientes?
13013799, 20 to 25%
Posted by mrhood75, Fri Apr-29-16 03:19 PM
Won't get enough women's votes. Won't get enough Hispanic votes. White males would have to vote for him at a staggering percentage.

Plus, we really haven't seen how ugly the campaign is going to get for him. The other GOP candidates spent months treating him with kid gloves because they didn't want to piss off his voter base. And when they did go after him, it was stuff that he said during the GOP campaign trail. Hillary is going to have no such problem. It is going to get real ugly real quick, re-dredging up all sorts of foul shit he's said over the years.

I will say HRC needs to get cracking with her "Get Out to Vote" drives. That will all definitely help.
13013804, Never underestimate the blind anger of Americans
Posted by BigReg, Fri Apr-29-16 03:24 PM
1/3 chance imho.

If he wins I see it getting worse; dude isn't as nuts as he lets on and when he lets those angry americans down by not shooting darkies on sight I really fear what's going to happen next.
13013806, Zero
Posted by wluv, Fri Apr-29-16 03:30 PM
He cant build enough of a coalition to win nationally hence the all out STOP TRUMP campaign thats been launched by the GOP. The GOP is just trying to protect the down ticket congressional candidates at this point. But with only 11 percent support of hispanic, he wont win the swing states McCain or Romney won in their elections. He wont even get the customer 8 percent black vote that all GOP presidents get. The electoral map on election night will be even more lopsided for Hillary than it was for Obama.

There will be no President Trump.
13013816, if it winds up Trump v Hil
Posted by fontgangsta, Fri Apr-29-16 03:39 PM
dude isn't going to win a single state
mark my words
the campaign against him is gonna be bananas, and he's put out soooo much stuff to use against him in attack ads
general electorate aint the primary electorate
and hil ain't these Republican bozos who've been trying to "stop trump"
it aint gonna be pretty.
13013843, he'll still win in deep red states like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas and such
Posted by wluv, Fri Apr-29-16 04:22 PM
States Dem Presidents dont win in landslide victory.

But those swing states like North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado he wont win.
13013863, i don't see it
Posted by fontgangsta, Fri Apr-29-16 04:48 PM
>he'll still win in deep red states like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas and such

i could be wrong, and we won't know til we know
but see the article below for ex - Latinos could take him out in texas. African Americans could take him out in Alabama.
i wouldn't blame anyone for being skeptical of my prediction, but i stick by it til we're knee deep in the general and have more data to go on.
13014083, Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states
Posted by legsdiamond, Sat Apr-30-16 09:50 AM
13014124, RE: Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states
Posted by murph71, Sat Apr-30-16 11:27 AM




^^^^^^^^^^^

Yep...Those states will take a while to be flipped....
13013864, Yeah Im not sure about that.
Posted by DavidHasselhoff, Fri Apr-29-16 04:49 PM
13014081, Wanna bet?
Posted by RaFromQueens, Sat Apr-30-16 09:36 AM
13013857, What Trump does in a primary....
Posted by murph71, Fri Apr-29-16 04:43 PM

...should not be dismissed...Trump is showing true power...He's showing the power to DESTROY the REPUBLICAN Party as we know it...That about it....

What Trump does in a primary where the party he is running under is damn near 90 percent WHITE does not translate to a general election...That's the issue...It's not about Trump beating expectations in a Republican Primary...It's that Trump's issues have less to do with his ability to turn on angry white folks (that's easy...) and more to do with EVERYONE ELSE LITERALLY HATING HIM....lol

Below is just an example...Latino voting registration has literally shot up...Y'all wanna guess why? It's all about demographics, which don't really matter in a primary....Read on...


---------------


The Hill
Hispanic voter registration spikes

By Rafael Bernal - 04/27/16 01:14 PM EDT
Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are also expected to vote against Trump if he is the Republican nominee, something that appears much more likely after the front-runner’s sweeping primary victories Tuesday in five East Coast states.

A whopping 80 percent of respondents in a poll of registered Hispanic voters in Colorado and Nevada said Trump's views on immigration made them less likely to vote for Republicans in November. In Florida, that number was 68 percent.

The figures are sparking confident tones from Democrats, who think their party’s nominee will benefit from a huge advantage in the fall not only in the presidential race but also in battles for the House and Senate.

Because of the contrast between the GOP and Democratic fields, “we feel absolutely confident about our chances of electing Democrats up and down the ballot in November,” said Walter Garcia, western regional communication director for the Democratic National Committee.

Many of the newly registered Hispanic voters are in California and Texas, relatively safe states for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

In fact, because so many Hispanic voters live in those states, the effect of the rising registration numbers will be somewhat undercut, according to Vargas.

Still, rising registration rates among Hispanics in Colorado, Florida and Nevada could make it easier for the Democratic candidate to retain those swing states. Even Arizona could be in play, say some poll watchers.

Registration is a game-changer with Hispanic voters.

Only about 48 percent of eligible Hispanics vote, but nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanics go to the ballot box.

Democrats have already targeted Colorado, Florida and Nevada with at least $15 million for Hispanic outreach, according to Vargas.

In Colorado, where 15 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, the demographic has already shown its ability to flip elections.

The 2016 Colorado Democratic caucuses were one of the first big tests for presidential candidate Bernie Sanders against rival Hillary Clinton. With nearly 30,000 newly registered voters and strong support from Hispanic millennials, Sanders beat Clinton by more than 20,000 votes.

President Obama won 51.5 percent of the vote in Colorado in 2012, compared to 46 percent for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. In Nevada, Obama won 52 percent of the vote to Romney’s 46 percent.

Arizona has been a relatively safe state for Republicans in recent presidential elections, but Democrats have long wondered if they could make it competitive.

Romney won 53.5 percent of the vote there in 2012, Obama 44.5 percent.

David Lublin, professor of government at American University, describes Arizona as “the sort of state that if Clinton starts moving into landslide or big-win territory, she could win.”

Yet the real danger for Republicans could be down the ballot — particularly in the battle for the Senate, where longtime Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) could be a target.

Obama won 74 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, according to exit polls by NBC.

A Democrat in 2016 would likely depend on larger Hispanic turnout and a larger share of the white vote to win the state.

Romney hurt himself with Hispanic voters in 2012 by suggesting that undocumented workers self-deport. He moved to the right on immigration and border security in the primary and was relatively quiet on the issue in the general election.

Both parties think Trump’s rhetoric, which has included insults directed at Mexicans and a plan to build a wall on the border and make Mexico pay for it, could be more difficult to overcome in a general election.

Trump has "motivated Latino voters," said Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.)

Immigration was shown by an America's Voice/Latino Decisions poll to be the primary issue driving Hispanics away from Republican candidates in 2016.

However, Hispanic voters nationally said the most important issue facing the country is the economy.

Ruth Guerra, Republican National Committee director of Hispanic media, gives little credence to the polls: “Not only is Latino Decisions on Hillary Clinton’s payroll, they have proven to be inaccurate time and again, so we will take their results in context.”

She also criticized Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, on immigration issues, accusing her of thinking Hispanics would have “amnesia.”

She noted that Clinton was opposed to giving drivers licenses to undocumented workers as a senator from New York but has now reversed her position.

“Clinton’s flip flops and hypocrisy on immigration are a mile long because she will tell voters anything to win an election,” Guerra said.

A win by a Democrat presidential candidate in Florida, Colorado and Nevada would make it very difficult for a GOP candidate to reach 270 electoral votes and win the White House.

In fact, Democrats could actually lose the swing state of Ohio but win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and get to 270 — simply by holding other states that have voted for the Democratic nominee in presidential elections for the last six cycles.

Jon Ralston, a veteran Nevada political journalist who is not surprised by the numbers, said, “The real problem is that Trump, and, to a lesser degree, Cruz, will drive up Hispanic turnout against Republicans."

He said the only path for the GOP nominee to the White House in such a situation would be to win more white votes.

Ralston described this as “a path we have never seen before. Huge increase in white vote.”

link: http://thehill.com/latino/277824-hispanics-in-swing-states-create-daunting-electoral-map-for-gop
13014019, Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones.
Posted by denny, Fri Apr-29-16 10:05 PM
But he's been addressing the exact points we've been debating for months now. Though I still think you're underestimating what Trump can possibly do with minority votes.....I still can't make any solid contention one way or the other.

But I saw Rob Ford inexplicably win the black and minority vote in Toronto while being a racist. So for me....I won't be as shocked as you if it he at least does ENOUGH with minorities to win. For what it's worth....Van Jones seems to concur with that.
13014046, RE: Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones.
Posted by murph71, Sat Apr-30-16 01:32 AM
Van Jones is being Van Jones...lol...Dude has always been a pessimist...And there's nothing wrong with that...We need pessimists to keep us level headed and our eyes on the prize...(also, Trump will need a lot more to happen than to rely on black folks to vote for him at 30 percent as Van keeps putting it out there...)

Listen...All u have to do is check the demographics....That's it...

The number that jumps out at anyone that understands the value of women (not primary female voters; but the real world of voters...) is this:

Mitt Romney, who lost to Obama by 5 million, BEAT OBAMA WITH MARRIED WOMEN by 53 percent to 46 percent...At this point the polls have an average of 70 percent of married women having an unfavorable view of Trump, which is some record-breaking shit...We talking new territory...Even Hillary's numbers with white men are not that high...Again, this is all taken into account BEFORE u realize that Trump is under water with damn near every other minority out there....

I get it Denny...You've seen some crazy shit in Canada go down politically with Ford and the like...But don't get it twisted...I'm not implying that Clinton should just do backflips and ACT like its a cakewalk against Trump...Dude has no core. He will say ANYTHING...U have to treat him seriously....But treat him seriously while knowing that the numbers are on your side...

But this is the stat that REALLY jumps out: "In a hypothetical November match-up between Trump and Clinton, among registered women voters, Clinton leads Trump 58 - 31 percent, according to a *CBS News national poll this month. In comparison, 42 percent of men would cast their ballots for Clinton versus 50 percent that would support Trump."....

Clinton should take Trump seriously because that's what u do when it comes to politics...But nah, dog...Trump ain't winning a general.....
13014049, Thanks for all your replies Murph.
Posted by denny, Sat Apr-30-16 02:42 AM
I got the privilege to see you IRL the other day with the news clip about Prince. I was happy to see what you looked like. Maybe that sounds weird? Thanks for alot more too....cause i really appreciate having dialogue with you. I've read many of your columns and look up to you in that regard.\

Yes...Van Jones and other pundits NEED this Trump v Clinton to be a thing so they can have jobs too. I get that. But the new world of social media opens Trump's lane in my angst-ridden worries.
13014050, RE: Thanks for all your replies Murph.
Posted by murph71, Sat Apr-30-16 03:47 AM
>I got the privilege to see you IRL the other day with the
>news clip about Prince. I was happy to see what you looked
>like. Maybe that sounds weird? Thanks for alot more
>too....cause i really appreciate having dialogue with you.
>I've read many of your columns and look up to you in that
>regard.\
>
>Yes...Van Jones and other pundits NEED this Trump v Clinton to
>be a thing so they can have jobs too. I get that. But the
>new world of social media opens Trump's lane in my
>angst-ridden worries.

Thanks for the kind words, dog...Really means a lot...

As for Van, dude is a straight shooter...He doesn't bullshit...So I don't think it has anything to do with him needing Trump to stay a viable candidate in order to keep a job...

That's just Van's make-up...Dude has always been on some ANYTHING THAT CAN GO WRONG WILL PROBABLY GO WRONG...

I get it...And like I said, Clinton should not approach Trump like he's cooked food...Dude is a loose cannon....THAT aspect of Trump should not be underestimated...But the demographics r the demographics...It's def. going to be interesting...
13013862, I've been saying from the start not to underestimate him. I say 50/50.
Posted by DavidHasselhoff, Fri Apr-29-16 04:48 PM
13013868, about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack
Posted by Mynoriti, Fri Apr-29-16 04:55 PM
while hillary is more of an actual warhawk, and has a much deeper knowledge of foreign policy, Trump is better at projecting that "no one fucks with the USA" image, and that cowboy shit will win out every time

Trump is an effective con-artist, and is not bound to any ideology. He can be anyone he wants. Hillary is pretty much tethered to the dem platform, for better or worse.
13013877, RE: about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack
Posted by murph71, Fri Apr-29-16 05:04 PM
>while hillary is more of an actual warhawk, and has a much
>deeper knowledge of foreign policy, Trump is better at
>projecting that "no one fucks with the USA" image, and that
>cowboy shit will win out every time
>
>Trump is an effective con-artist, and is not bound to any
>ideology. He can be anyone he wants. Hillary is pretty much
>tethered to the dem platform, for better or worse.


U need votes, dog...Don't care how much a con artist u r...If u pissing off Latinos, blacks, the youth AND women, that's a recipe for a general election disaster...

U r right about one thing though Trump could def. make it closer with a terrorist attack on OUR SHORES....But yeah...Hard to pull off that general election con job when 7 out of 10 women r giving u the side eye...

I mean, this fool just said the only reason Clinton is doing well is because she's a woman and that if she were a man she wouldn't get 5 percent of the vote.....That shit def. works in a Republican primary where white men make up the bulk of the base...but in the general?

lol...Nah...
13013985, Yah.
Posted by denny, Fri Apr-29-16 07:55 PM
Even something relatively small like another San Bernadino could tip the scales. I think he could win it without too....but a terrorist event could hammer it home.
13014012, 0%. im just here for the spectacle and he's bringing it.
Posted by BrooklynWHAT, Fri Apr-29-16 09:16 PM
13014030, is less than zero a option
Posted by justin_scott, Fri Apr-29-16 10:56 PM
.
13015082, Trump is steam rolling people with common sense.
Posted by Case_One, Tue May-03-16 09:03 AM

.
.
.
13015089, nah, it isn't common sense
Posted by legsdiamond, Tue May-03-16 09:12 AM
dude is tapping into the anger of the white voter AND making sure he communicates at a 6th grade level.

"we're gonna build a wall and it's gonna be great...just got 10 ft higher"

that isn't common sense, that's called lying.
13015091, The man is a snake oil salesman. He's roping people in with
Posted by Lardlad95, Tue May-03-16 09:17 AM
simple but passionate rhetoric that has little to no actual substance to it.

He's tapping into genuine anger by telling people what they want to hear, but that doesn't mean he's right.

It's actually kind of scary and why the fascist allusions, while overblown, are close enough to the mark to be of great concern to anyone who actually cares about this country.

"All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts..." -The Bard
13015096, A thinking person can see through this BS and emotional pandering
Posted by Case_One, Tue May-03-16 09:20 AM
>simple but passionate rhetoric that has little to no actual
>substance to it.
>
>He's tapping into genuine anger by telling people what they
>want to hear, but that doesn't mean he's right.
>
>It's actually kind of scary and why the fascist allusions,
>while overblown, are close enough to the mark to be of great
>concern to anyone who actually cares about this country.
>
>"All the world's a stage,
>And all the men and women merely players:
>They have their exits and their entrances;
>And one man in his time plays many parts..." -The Bard


.
.
.
13015107, He is just saying what voters scream when they are watching the news
Posted by legsdiamond, Tue May-03-16 09:33 AM
it's awesome and scary to watch.

What scares me is Hillary will go all in depth while Trump throws out that basic message.

only thing working for Hillary is I still believe Trump is a plant. Dude is going to piss off every voting block but the angry white male. It's like he doesn't want to win the GE with his comments but maybe he pivots once he locks the nom up. Its still prolly too late.

Just comes down to demographics. Can he win Ohio, Florida, NC and Wisc with just the working blue collar white votes? of so, it could be close.

13015127, Yeah this whole HilTrump race is a nightmare.
Posted by Case_One, Tue May-03-16 09:49 AM
We are Screwed as a nation.
.
.
.
13015102, Not common sense. Simplistic explanations that sound right
Posted by Buddy_Gilapagos, Tue May-03-16 09:26 AM
if you aren't versed in the issues.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"
13015104, Maybe we have a different standard for common sense
Posted by Case_One, Tue May-03-16 09:30 AM
Somethings requires regular discernment, general wisdom, and plain walking around sense.
13015109, well its common sense to deliver his message this way
Posted by legsdiamond, Tue May-03-16 09:35 AM
but the message damn sure doesn't sound like common sense
13015119, That's my point. He's winning and rolling over people with common sense
Posted by Case_One, Tue May-03-16 09:44 AM
Meaning that Thinking is not required, common sense is abandoned and these yahoos are eating his loud BS up because they have abandoned their brains and have given in to primal emotions.


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13016425, Is he winning over people with common sense or he has people
Posted by Buddy_Gilapagos, Thu May-05-16 09:16 AM
abandoning common sense ?




**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"
13015137, That's precisely how I'd define common sense.
Posted by stravinskian, Tue May-03-16 09:57 AM

But that's a separate discussion.
13015136, Depends A LOT on how the race goes, but at this stage I'd say green.
Posted by stravinskian, Tue May-03-16 09:54 AM
13016182, If Trump chooses Kasich as his VP his chances will be really good.
Posted by Binladen, Wed May-04-16 04:18 PM
13016218, Less than zero now
Posted by wluv, Wed May-04-16 04:53 PM
He has NO SHOT.

The coalition nor the strong enough platform just isn't there for him to win.

He will get exposed like a cheapsuit. EVERYTHING he says from now on and all the previous soundbites are fair game now. His arrogance ass cant keep his mouth shut long enough to sound like a statesman or a serious enough to win over the majority of Americans.

Madame Clinton it will be.
13016224, RE: Less than zero now
Posted by murph71, Wed May-04-16 04:59 PM


Basically....Trump def. is a wild card....He doesn't play by the rules so Hill-Dog should still keep one eye open....

But Trump has to put together that fractured Republican party...He's still not a consensus pick...Even when u poll him within Republican voters more than half r giving him the side-eye....

Gonna be interesting...

13016231, RE: Less than zero now
Posted by wluv, Wed May-04-16 05:19 PM
>
>
>Basically....Trump def. is a wild card....He doesn't play by
>the rules so Hill-Dog should still keep one eye open....

His running off at the mouth will only galvanize Dems more to come out and vote. And all the Repubs he trolled like McCain, Jeb, Cruz, and even Megyn Kelly have no reason to help his ass now. McCain's aide already said he's voting for Clinton
>
>But Trump has to put together that fractured Republican
>party...He's still not a consensus pick...Even when u poll him
>within Republican voters more than half r giving him the
>side-eye....
>
which mean independents will stay away. All the kings horses and all the kings men could put that fractured Party back together again. A fracture that he caused.
>Gonna be interesting...
>
its gonna be a bloodbath son and Dem landslide. Just sit back and enjoy the journey
13016559, ^^^ CORRECT ANSWER ^^^^^
Posted by LAbeathustla, Thu May-05-16 11:13 AM
it wont even be romney close
13016245, I'm willing to take bets on if he makes it through the convention...
Posted by CRichMonkey, Wed May-04-16 05:53 PM
I can see him flaming out and the party deciding to take the L, nominate a usurper and cede the election to Clinton that way.


my avy: Deep in your heart, you know he's right: http://coreyrichardsonneedsajob.com/
my hustle: http://SupaSoulSounds.com

*RIP: John T. "220v" Richardson, Blessing Benson, and Dilla*
13016256, The News Say Only 30% Of The Voters Last Two Presidental Election
Posted by Dj Joey Joe, Wed May-04-16 06:28 PM
...actually voted during the primaries, so it's weird that only 30% of the people who usually vote, and voted Obama in, decided to not vote at all since they probably thought the primaries don't mean shit to them.

On one hand I know that the other 70% probably will not be voting for Trump at all but the other hand I'm mad these fools could've had Sanders still running and probably beaten Clinton.

So I'm going to say at least another un-voted 50% will vote democrat while all but 20% the republicans haven't voted during the primaries.


13016277, 90%
Posted by Brew, Wed May-04-16 07:58 PM
You touched on all my reasons. I'm tired of the "it'll never happen" folks because they've been saying that since August and here we are.

On top of that Hillary is a terrible, pandering candidate and Trump is masterful at making people like her look like fools, which will unfortunately turn a lot of the dummy undecideds in his favor.

I'm obviously operating under the assumption that Hillary is the democratic candidate. If Bernie wins I actually lower that number down a bit, but maybe not much.
13016322, Trump will win by a landslide.
Posted by denny, Wed May-04-16 10:29 PM
The US economy will explode into new, unimaginable heights. The dollar bill will be re-named 'one Trump' and will be printed in multi-color so that his face can be orange. China will apologize and send billions of dollars back to the US just to make up for all the bad deals from the past.
13016415, those saying trump has no chance are greatly underestimating
Posted by SooperEgo, Thu May-05-16 09:04 AM
the stupidity of the american people and/or trump's manipulative abilities
13016435, Univision and Telemundo are yelling Trump is the antichrist 24/7
Posted by j., Thu May-05-16 09:31 AM
He can forget about the latino vote
even Miami Cubans are backing away
(Cubans in general are the most wealthy of all latino groups and have been solidly repub since 59...but the generational split, obama's opening, and obamacare, have all cracked the wall)

Just like the rest of the voters, older people with more at stake (houses, careers, retirement, taxes) vote more than younger ones.

Guess what channels and programming older latinos watch?

13016436, Trump is like that Chimpanzee with the AK47 - Unpredictable & Dagerous
Posted by Case_One, Thu May-05-16 09:31 AM
I can't access YouTube at work and I'm to lazy to use my phone.
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13016895, This mutherfucka isn't trying to win this: "I love Hispanics!"
Posted by mrhood75, Thu May-05-16 03:03 PM
Posing with a "taco bowl" on Cinco de Mayo.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-proclaims-cinco-de-mayo-i-love-hispanics-n568846
13016904, At this point, I can't even get mad at him anymore.
Posted by Numba_33, Thu May-05-16 03:08 PM
He wouldn't be pulling these insane stunts if folks didn't give him support and positive attention.

It's been impossible to pay attention to this election cycle because his popularity completely defies logic. Worse than the worse reality television show.
13017114, but check out what was underneath his taco salad
Posted by veritas, Thu May-05-16 09:18 PM
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/728309799667044352

Hilarious
13017074, Low 20s, I guess, seems arbitrary but he has a chance, sure
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu May-05-16 07:36 PM