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Hate. Khris Middleton. #126.
Dont know how I missed this. Awful.
Love. Khris Middleton. #126. Was considering several fringe options here anyway, and now I have an easy drop spot to get my waiver on. I expect to make 14 moves on opening night.
On to the list.
Picks I love:
Karl Antony Towns. #5
I knew the hype train would have him top ten, and i was initially surprised to see him go 5. But the upside is huge with 1.5+ potential and you know I love a good FC.
Hassan Whiteside #15
Given the minutes, he has a chance to be better than Cuz and Drummond, both taken ahead of him. And with no Bosh, and gettin paid, I dont see how he doesnt. Could finish top 3 FPPG.
Pau Gasol #24
Overlooked year after year due to age, all he does is produce 1.4 minimum in respectable minutes. Dont see that changing in San Antonio.
Nicholas Batum. #37
Loved him last year in his new surroundings, but he took a while to really get going. Finished strong (1.27 last 20) last year and could post similar numbers to Paul George, taken 20 picks earlier.
Greg Monroe #41
Overlooked because of his "demotion" but he came of the bench plenty last year, and still posted numbers. Back to back years at 1.3+.
Goran Dragic. #50
Someone has to produce in Miami, and Dragic has proven capable of 1.15 before. A pick I was happy to make after the top tier guards were gone.
Kevin Love #51
Went after the "buzz" Fs, Randle and Zingis, but will likely out produce them again. For all his "struggles" he bounced back strong last year to 1.3.
Deangelo Russell. #58
This is a tough one, as going from .88 to 1.1+ seems like a difficult jump. The Kobe effect cant be overstated though.
Tim Frazier #85
His passing ability makes him perfect for this format. With Jrues situation couple with his injury history, he's a sleeper for top 10 G.
Marcin Gortat. #104
Made my hate list last year and proved me wrong. This is great value for a 1.25+ C in big minutes.
George Hill. #121
Was my top choice before my awful Middleton pick. Was 1.26 two years ago and should have similar opportunity in Utah.
Brad Beal. #170
Could be this years 2015 Klay where he finally becomes less back end filler minutes and more 1.1, #2 G.
Picks I hate.
Chris Paul. #1
Well documented, but...cmon. The definition of overthinking it, Russ was a dam cheat code last year. (and the year before really). Nothing to indicate that will change as he was a monster with and without Durant. Paul will be fine. Russ will be better.
John Wall. #6
Similar to Russ/Paul, not sure how Wall went ahead of Steph. A drop in points for Steph is inevitable but making up for that in dimes seems more than likely. Wall seems maxed out at 1.49 and I could see a regression to 1.4.
Ricky Rubio. #14
Tried the Rubio experiment last year and while as efficient as anyone, the lack of minutes are a problem. #40 in MPG for guard eligible players and his minutes have dropped each of the last 3 years. 22 and 24 minute nights are common and 35 minute nights are rare, which forces you to use lesser players below.
Draymond Green. #16
Most likely to suffer from the addition of KD, his huge leap last year might be followed by a huge step back. If so, a 1.3 F only isnt a first rounder.
Dennis Schroeder. #31
Really struggled down the stretch and it remains to be seen if he can maintain his efficiency in bigger minutes. Safer options were available.
Mason Plumlee/Jared Sullinger. #32/#33
Like the players, but cant see how they go ahead of Horford, who's been as efficient, in bigger minutes, over a longer period and is the new centerpiece of a Boston team on the rise.
Ed Davis. #53
A longtime favorite of the bittorrent front line, Davis was once a great value pick in the later rounds. With amazing efficiency, he deserves more than that, but at 20 minutes a game, not this much. Guys like Faried and Favors can do the same in 5-10 more minutes a game.
Klay Thompson. #53
Took a leap in '15, came back to earth in '16. With Durant in tow, the slide continues. Could be on waivers at some point.
Ish Smith. #60
I hope I'm wrong here for obvious reasons, but last year in Philly seems like an anomaly, and if Reggies stays on track for December return, one month of a 1PPG starting G isnt enough for a fourth rounder.
Marcus Smart. #66
Started hot last year, but came crashing back to earth, finishing .84 in his last 20. Could also end up on waivers at some point.
Andrew Wiggins. #83
This just aint his thing. (c) John Salmons
Zach Randolph. #86
Always had nice value when he had the minutes. Those days appear over. Will need to up the efficiency quite a bit. 1.15 in 20 minutes per for a F is more 8th round material.
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