Sigh. I mean, the boards are pretty dead, especially as it pertains to folks who watch college hoops. But I can't *not* do this again this year, even if I'm running behind due to work stuff. So here we go. Stake your claims now before the season starts!

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

One of the most effective and efficient one-and-dones in NCAA history. Only guy clearly more efficient was Zion-- and he's a multi-year All-Star. AD was up there (better defense, worse offense)-- and he's an All-NBA guy. Generally, guys who are this clearly dominant right away in college succeed at a high level. And Cooper Flagg did it AS A RECLASS.

He does basically everything at a level that ranges from "very good" to "elite." Elite motor. Very good athleticism. Very, very good shooter and shot creator for his size. Very good midrange. Very good passer. Elite in transition. Elite off-ball defense. Very good on ball defense. Elite defensive playmaker, generating steals and blocks. Very, very good athlete-- not elite at an NBA level, but the next step or so down. Has an elite combination of tools and skills that make him a mismatch nightmare. If you're smaller than him? He can post you up and bully you or shoot over the top of you. If you're bigger? He's faster than you and can either get past you or draw fouls.

My only nitpick would be his handle, which is merely "good." But he also should've been a high school senior this year.

I feel really good about his odds at being a multi-year All-Star. He might not a "throw the team on his back" guy from Day 1, because he's going in as one of the youngest players in the league, but the guy will help you win from Day 1. And he ended up in a really good place alongside two multi-year All-Stars with title experience.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

but if he gets a ring he wont be the best player on the team

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Anyone who watched knows that Rutgers sucking was not remotely his fault. His team really sucked, but they were a *nightmare* when he wasn't out there.

He's just a hooper. Even being as young as he is, he knows where to be, how to use his feet and body, how to anticipate, how to finish. I don't think he ever seemed sped up, which is pretty wild for a freshman guard with shitty teammates. He'll be, at best, average from an NBA athleticism perspective, but that's not his game. He just plays smarter and harder and craftier than you.

I don't think he'll ever be anything more than an okay defender due to the athleticism, but he does give a shit, which I think should serve him well next level and prevent him from being a liability.

I could see a world in which he becomes a really productive guard, enough to be in the All-Star hunt. Bare minimum, I like his odds to be a starter and to help lift a team.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

will be interesting to see who has the better career

--------

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Edgecombe will be one of the... what, 20 best athletes in the NBA? 25? Instant dunk contest guy. Speed, check. Leaping, check. Instant dunk contest guy. And he really does play hard. I could see him staying on the floor while he figures things out because he can impact the game on defense and on transition.

But right now, the half court offense is mid to rough. Bad ball handler, bad shooter off the bounce. Wasn't a good finisher in the half-court in college, and that'll be worse in the NBA, because he's not that big. He's a pretty good catch-and-shoot guy, but he's just not dynamic on offense at all right now unless he's in transition.

He feels like the sort of guy who has starter upside if his game comes along and who, with his athleticism, could become an ASG upside guy if he can make pull-up jumpers at a high rate or learn how to use his left hand at all. Ending up in Philly where he just has to be a bench spark guy while his game comes along will be good for him.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

version of Benedict mathurin.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Like, don't get me wrong, he's an elite shooter, easily one of the best in the class. But he's also a tremendous passer, a smart ball handler, and a better off-the-bounce scorer than people realize. The IQ is insanely high and the instincts are quick-- there's a play he made to keep a teammate inbounds this season I've legit NEVER seen a player do. Really high motor too. The kid's a gamer.

Below-average NBA athleticism is the concern-- but he's got good positional size and strength, and the combo of IQ and footwork and willingness to play physical should prevent him from being a bad defender next level. This isn't a Duncan Robinson situation. Kon can play.

Doubt he'll ever be a star, just due to the athleticism concerns-- and I won't be surprised if his outside shooting takes a year or two as he gets used to this next level. That happens to a number of the better NBA shooters. But he also was just so quick to figure out the college level as a OAD that it's hard for me to doubt him. Feels to me like a classic "pencil him in as a future starter and let him help your team win" guy.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

2-1 career assist to turnover ratio, career 59% from 2, 30mpg for a Finalist, 44% on more than 8 attempts his first full season in the league.

Career 39.7% on 3000 attempts.

we'll see if Klem Kediddlehopper manages any of those things.

and generally the heat won more when he played more, to the point where the only time in his career his minutes went *up* in the playoffs, they went back to the Finals.

Dunc is certified, and a Piston, and I will abide no slander

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

"The combo of IQ and footwork and willingness to play physical should prevent him from being a bad defender next level. This isn't a Duncan Robinson situation. Kon can play."

Duncan has always been a bad defender in the NBA. I do not believe Kon will be.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

>This isn't a Duncan Robinson situation. Kon can play."

you didnt say "defend", you said "play"

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

Yes, if you remove the context of what I was talking about leading into that select snippet of quote, I can see why you'd take that select snippet that way. So forgive me for not adding the word "defense" to the end of a segment that was already explicitly about his defense.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

fuck you frank!

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Look, he's a stud athlete with really nice length, a high release point on his shot, and loads of playmaking potential. When he's on, and you're watching him, you think, "I get it." And any of the concerns I'm about to list can be hand-waved to some extent as "well, he's young, he'll figure it out"...

... but I have concerns. When he's off ball, he doesn't give a shit. When he's on defense, he too frequently doesn't give a shit. His shot selection is, imo, bad. He doesn't like playing through contact. His handle is incredibly loose. He's one of the worst and least willing passers in the modern history of Top 10 NBA Draft picks.

So yeah. Like, the tools are here for an All-Star. He's a project with a capital P. And maybe his inefficiencies and motor issues end of high school and in college were due to saving his body for the NBA. It's just a laundry list of things I don't like. To me, it smells like "guy who scores 26 in a rookie game his team loses by 20 and everyone freaks out online." But that guy doesn't help you win unless he changes, like, three or four of the things I mentioned hating about his current game above.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

is a playable NBA wing, but he won't be a star at all

--------

He’s good tho

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

and thousands more that arent

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

I know he’s a more gifted scorer, but really concerned with his lack of assists and steals, coupled with his off the court antics.

They put this boy on the coaching staff. Shit is a circus.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

The best thing for him is actually that he's on the Jazz.

I hate his (lack) of motor. He's not good enough for that. If Jabari Smith can't make it - Ace won't be close.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Electric offensive player. Great shooter off catch or off bounce. Great midrange. Just pure as can be. You watch and think "he's not passing, he's shooting"-- but he makes it anyway. Wasn't a very good playmaker for others, but also think he was a one-man team last year due to roster construction, so not willing to dismiss his potential there just because he was a comical "shot's going up" guy this year.

Some of his issues are potentially age-related. Has to get stronger and play through contact better, has to handle the ball better, has to play better defense. These are frequent OAD guard problems.

But I actually like his potential as at least a sixth man sparkplug scorer a fair amount. He's a better prospect than Cam Thomas was imo-- though most players of Cam Thomas's ilk don't work out as well as he has. Really, it's just the ridiculous swagger to the game that makes me draw the comparison. You know what he's out there to do, and he can do it anyway. Who knows if he can reach his ceiling stuck in Washington (ugh)... but he's a fun player.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

almost prefers to make a bad shot than be more efficient

him chucking it up in DC is perfect

--------

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

I'm being a bit flip with that subject line, because Fears rocked in college last year. Reclass PGs are so, so rarely that good, so that certainly makes me wonder what he can figure out next level. He's a bolt of lightning out there, and he's got a very nice handle. It's easy to see why people are so enamored from the eye test.

It's just so, so hard for guards his size to make an impact on winning. Especially if they aren't PGs, which, right now, I don't think he is. He turns it over a lot, he's not a great passer, he dribbles himself into trouble, he can't pressure the rim in half court at ALL, he can't shoot off the bounce from distance at ALL. And because he's so small, he's never going to be a net positive defender in the NBA. Like, there are guards bigger than him too small to be net positive NBA defenders. Guards who were more effective than him in college too, better shooters, etc.

I'm not surprised he went top 10 due to eye test and the allure of finding a wunderkind at the most important position on the floor-- if you believe he's a PG, which I'm assuming New Orleans MUST think, or they'd never have drafted him there-- but the number of players at his height and weight who were terrific in college but didn't make good pros is incredibly high. And nearly all the best players at his height/weight class who've played at a top 10 pick level of expectation have all been terrific shooters from distance. Fears has to become a better half court player and distance shooter to become anything more than a bench player in the NBA imo. If he can, he's got the speed and the pizzazz to be an interesting player. If not... well, he'll join the aforementioned number of players.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

all his worst SEC games, including one in person, and none of his good ones

the shooting, lack of play-making (OU sucked but he doesn't seem like a natural) and inconsistent payday at the rim are three strikes

--------

1.

>Reclass PGs are so, so rarely
>that good

>It's just so, so hard for guards his size to make an impact on
>winning. Especially if they aren't PGs, which, right now, I
>don't think he is.

What I intended to say here is that I don't think he's the guy I want running an NBA offense. He was very clearly a PG this season in college. But how many teams will let guys run the offense who aren't currently good passers, good at avoiding turnovers, good at shooting off the bounce from distance, or good at finishing in half court settings? I get that he's very young, but that's a really tough combo imo to trust him running the show unless he notably improves at some of those things, especially with his size.

Which leads me to...

2.

I shouldn't have labeled it above as "height/weight," I should've said "size." Because, on paper, Fears's height isn't a problem. Depending on his shoes, he prob measures up to 6'4 in height... but he's got a 6'5 wingspan and an 8'2.5 standing reach. This gives him basically the same wingspan, standing reach, and weight as Darius Garland. He's a small guy by NBA standards.

And you look at guys of similar size or less-- guys like Garland, Chris Paul, Jalen Brunson, Collin Sexton, CJ McCollum, etc.-- and I struggle to find a single one in the league today who contributes to winning without being able to, at minimum, shoot a strong percentage from 3. Best I could come up with is DeAaron Fox, but even he has a couple inches better wingspan/standing reach, and he was a much better passer in college, better defender, etc.

Maybe he grows in the next couple years and some of these concerns get minimized a bit. But I kept bringing up his size and my concerns about letting him run an NBA offense to underscore my overall concerns with him. I do still think, in this draft class, I'd have had him around the middle of the first round on the speed, the production as a reclass PG in the Big 12, and the potential those two things combine to carry.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

This one's pretty straight to the point imo. Demin was one of the best, most creative passers in college basketball, which, given his height, is tantalizing. One of the better passers from a college PG of *any* size-- much less one that's over 6'8. He's also a good finisher-- he'll need to get stronger, but he's young, so that's to be expected-- and he's a good defender.

That said? When you can't shoot, that's a problem in the NBA. And Demin can't shoot from distance. Has never been able to, really. And when you're a 6'8 PG, while that gives you significant advantages, it also gives disadvantages. Odds are he'll be pressured by guys smaller and faster and more athletic-- and I don't think his handle is ready for that Day 1. Also unclear who he guards until his strength catches up to his size.

So he's clearly a project. But I actually like the swing in the top 10 of a pretty mediocre draft class beyond the top 4 or 5. Because if his handle can tighten up or his shot improves to passable? He's easily worth that pick in this draft imo, because his PG skills are that good. Better to go for the fences when you're Brooklyn than go for, like, a safe sixth man type. Those are just big-ass swing skills, end of the day. The difference between "starter in the NBA" and "back overseas in a few years."

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Look, he's one of the best defenders in the class, if not the best. Monster tools, monster motor, monster feel for the game. Good screener and roller as an undersized 5 in college.

There's just no jumper here. Doesn't shoot, doesn't dribble. Decent passer, but if you can't shoot or dribble, like... it's hard to stay on the floor, no matter how good your defense is.

So he's one of these classic prospects where, if you think he can even make, like 33% of his 3s? He's probably starter good. If he makes 38% of his 3s? Shit, high-level starter, maybe even border-line ASG type of guy, given what he can do on defense. If he makes, like, 25% of his 3s? He might just not play anything other than bench minutes.

Maybe there's a world in which an NBA team uses him as a small ball 5 like Draymond and trusts him to use his feel to create advantages elsewhere on the floor... but can you play him and Scottie Barnes together without blowing your offense to smithereens? It'll be interesting to see what happens to him in the next couple years. Wide range of outcomes. Could be a sleeper All-Defense level guy, could be traded before the 2027/28 season.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Over 7 feet, 9'6 standing reach. Better lateral mover on defense than the lion's share of guys his size or bigger in the NBA. Great roller, great finisher, great at taking up space on the floor. I forget what the exact numbers were, but I remember reading that one of the things Gobert was always best at in his day was simply discouraging opponent shot attempts. Maluach definitely has that in his bag. He's also SO new to the game-- picked it up at age ~13 IIRC-- so there's a lot of potential upside with time...

... but the danger is he might never get to that upside in such a competitive atmosphere. I think he'll stick in the league with his tools, don't get me wrong... but there's a world of difference between "starter on a good team center" and "relief backup center who plays on 6 teams in 10 seasons." Both are in his range of outcomes, because the feel for the game isn't always there. He doesn't pass. His hands aren't very good. His motor is high, but he gets out of position as a result. He basically doesn't dribble. You can imagine him having a Mitchell Robinson type of impact... but Robinson was always a better shot blocker than Maluach, who right now is better at contesting than actually rejecting.

As a Duke guy, I'm rooting for him-- he's a hell of a kid. But the list of high-upside bigs with mediocre hands who bust is pretty long. I heard a comparison a while back to Jakob Poeltl-- someone who, as a freshman at Utah, was raw and had bad hands, but who showed great growth sophomore year and has carved out a very nice career in the pros. I reckon that's the template. Hopefully playing with fellow Duke giant Mark Williams will help him develop in the ways necessary to make the most of his draft selection.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

which is more than can be said for a lot of guys in this class

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Like, look. He's 6'6, big wingspan, big hands, great shooter, strong finisher, active defender, good character guy. Seems like a no-brainer lottery type of guy in this draft, right?

... well, he played two years in a low level conference at Eastern Washington, where all but two of his games against higher-level teams went badly. (I can only speak from a statistical perspective, given that I'm not enough of a sicko to watch Eastern Washington.) He wasn't projected as a first rounder pre-season before going to Washington State. He only played 6 games this year, only 1 of which was against a high-major-- a game that went badly. Then he wasn't projected as a first rounder post-season... but then he becomes an end of first round guy, then a top 20 guy, then a surefire lotto guy. Like... his agent deserves a raise, for real. He has absolutely no usable game tape against remotely high level opponents last season and jumped into the top 12 on workouts and interviews alone!

I would've loved him in college this year, don't get me wrong. He's the type of guy for whom the portal absolutely exists. I just can't recall the last time a player had such a stratospheric rise between April and June-- after a season in which they didn't play well against a single notable team. As a betting man, I feel like this scenario screams "fade."

Ultimately, it's probably more of an indictment of the rest of the class than anything else. There are very few guys you can look at and say "I really like the odds they can play right away." With Coward, ignoring the caliber of opponent, you definitely see it. The size, the shot, the strength, the motor-- it's all there. It just feels like a big enough gamble given the level of play that, I don't know, he feels more like a late-first flier in a different year. Guys like Dillon Jones and Ben Sheppard come to mind-- not in terms of style of play, just in terms of being mid-major guys with limited exposure to higher level opponents. (Though even Jones led his team to a couple upsets in those spots.)

But the Grizzlies dealt Desmond Bane, and they want as many swings of the bat to replace his production as possible. So in that respect, it makes sense-- and certainly might work out, given their need. He has everything outside of experience I tend to look for in a role player of value, and ignoring the strangeness of his meteoric rise, in a draft like this, I can see the appeal.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

I've been watching him since HS, and the kid can flat out ball. Nothing I say below is an indictment of his skills, which are clear. He's very, very productive. Good handler and passer for a big man as well. The appeal, in a bubble, is obvious...

... but he's 6'9 with a 7 foot wingspan, and he'll be below average among NBA big men in terms of both speed and explosiveness. He was a bad defender in space in college, only proving effective in deep drop coverage-- which he won't be able to play in the NBA at his size. He'll either get scorched on the outside or finished over the top of on the inside.

And it's not like he's a 3 point shooter to play "3s for 2s" with opposing centers. He's not. Respectable FT numbers, but he wants to do his work as a below-the-rim big man. And even with his good footwork, with his size and athleticism, I just... don't see that working. Maybe it works for a team that gets creative with how they run offense with their big-- I've heard Sengun's name mentioned in multiple places, even though Sengun is bigger than Queen, in terms of how it could work. But in New Orleans? When they're paying so much to Zion? And with the awful defenders New Orleans has around him? That just sounds like a nightmare to me. (AND NEW ORLEANS TRADED AN UNPROTECTED FIRST FOR THIS.)

So yeah, I'd have had Queen lower, even though I acknowledge guys this productive at all levels generally find a way to at bare minimum stick in the league. And maybe later in his career, Queen will find the right home. I just... do NOT think New Orleans is that home, lol. Hopefully I'm wrong.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

where you cannot believe the assets traded for him

not a big fan even before the trade, he is positionless in the league

--------

Get him in the rotation and figure it out.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

I said he was 6'9 with a 7 foot wingspan and 9'1 standing reach. Those were the combine numbers. In shoes, he's more like 6'10 and change with a 7 foot wingspan and 9'2 and change standing reach. Which is, of course, still undersized for a pure post player in the NBA.

Again, Sengun, a similarly measured undersized skilled big who isn't a shooter, is the upside here. But that's the, like, 99th percentile outcome. Maybe it can happen. He's certainly skilled. But I'm *extremely* skeptical it happens in New Orleans.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

also could see him as the Euroleague MVP in 5 years for whatever that implies

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Doesn't really have much off-the-bounce game right now, not much of a playmaker for himself or others. Good enough athleticism, but probably around average for the NBA, so I'm not sure he's got the upside that some of the players above him in the draft have if everything clicks...

... but his floor is a lot higher, imo, just because he has exactly what the NBA needs. He's probably 6'8 in shoes, 215, he defends well, and he's a very good catch-and-shoot player from distance. Like... everyone needs players like this.

He's probably not an All-Star or anything, but I can see him having a long and successful career in the NBA. I know Marvin Williams is kind of a diss, but he started for over a decade and averaged like 11 and 6 on ~36% 3-point shooting. Pretty easy to see Bryant doing something like this-- or better, if things go right.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

A lot of the above pros and cons for Queen are mirrored with Sorber. Queen's the better passer and handler, no doubt-- but Sorber's very good at both for his position.

Unlike Queen, he's got a 7'6 wingspan. He's also a better finisher-- Sorber made 68.6% of his shots at the rim, 64.4% of his layups. Compare this to Queen, who made 64% of his shots at the rim, only 54% of his layups. I also think Sorber's the better defender, moves side to side better than Queen, even if defending in space won't be a strength for either of them.

So I think the tools are there for Sorber to succeed. (He also ended up in OKC vs. New Orleans, which, in terms of both player development and coaching, makes a big difference!) For both Sorber and Queen, the margins are thin given their size and below-the-rim type game. Could easily be that Queen ends up more productive than Sorber or vice versa... but I like Sorber's tools and superior finishing in college and would've taken him a shade higher in this draft, personally.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

he can actually shoot off the dribble or catch, has some PNR ability and ideally would be your top combo guard off the bench

--------

I see the vision with Fears given the speed and the handles, but the downside is so much lower. Meanwhile, we know what Clayton can do as a fearless clutch shooter, and even though he's small, he's a pretty good playmaking defender. Just a smart player.

I definitely worry he's not really a PG at the next level, that he's more a guy in college who's just a smart player with good teammates who used his gravity as a shooter to make the easy pass to open guys-- that at the next level, with less separation and more size disadvantage, he'll either need to be an even higher level shooter to create that gravity or get a more diverse bag as a handler or passer-- but ultimately, in this draft, a guy with his shooting, his IQ, his leadership, his winning pedigree is worth that swing mid-first.

Am I always scared of guys his size simply not being able to hang? You bet. But how many guys have done in college what he did this year?

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

One of the best passers in the sport last year. Just an elite PnR point guard. In addition, he's got a nice offensive bag. Finger rolls, Eurosteps, etc-- he plays great change of pace ball and draws fouls well. Good off-the-catch shooter-- did way more off-the-bounce this year, where he's not as efficient, but that's a byproduct of the offense Illinois ran more than anything.

A lot of his problems I attribute to his youth. Things like turnovers, off-ball defense. The turnovers in particular I don't really mind given he's out there trying to make high-level reads and make things happen. He'll never be a great defender since he's not a very good athlete-- but his size is good enough that there are likely ways to prevent him from being a point of attack guy and place him on a floor spacer instead. Maybe the athleticism hurts his ability to become a more efficient iso guy in the league... but everything else in his game just *feels* like a pro.

So yeah, I'd have taken him lotto, maybe even top 10. I just don't think his floor is very low, whereas his ceiling is very much a starting primary guard on a winning team. In a couple years, if the turnovers are trimmed down and the CAS 3s land at the rate they probably should given his free throw prowess, people are going to say the Heat got a steal.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

I'll be honest, I don't have as strong a take on Riley because most of the games I watched Illinois featured Riley's worst games. I know he really came on as a distributor as the year went on. He's obviously got some feel and was quite productive as a OAD, which is impressive... but he's not really a distance shooter and he's a straight up bad defender from what I can tell, so that gives me pause. He's a lean dude, not really an athlete... I feel like if you're betting on him, you're betting on feel + secondary creation + production at a young age + the shot coming around. Maybe he could be, like, low-end starter or sixth man in that situation. But again, I'm not as well versed on his best tape. I'd have taken him lower.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

UNC didn't do a lot I liked this year, but Powell's NBA role seems clear. He has great positional size and frame, he defends really well, and he shot 3s off the catch at a very efficient clip. It looks a bit slow and funky, but hey, it went in, and that matters. At least in theory.

I don't love his offensive game beyond that. Maybe he has more and the UNC of it all ruined his chance to show it, but he doesn't pass, doesn't handle, doesn't shoot off the bounce, can't get to the rim. Vecenie also pointed out that his usage rate was INSANELY low, sub-14-- and the list of drafted prospects in the last two decades with a lower usage rate is an exceptionally dicey list. So that doesn't bode especially well.

I kinda think 22nd was high for Powell... but I get it. Shot 38% from 3, best defender on the team, at the wing position. A + B = C. I think his offensive game needs to come along in a big way for him to be more than just a spot starter/bench floor spacer-- and there's a world in which his shooting percentage plummets at the next level, rendering him nigh unplayable. Still, in this draft, end of first made sense. 3-and-D wings are too valuable to not give a guy like this a spin.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Should be a really good NBA defender. Moves well for a guy his size and plays really hard. Crashes the glass. Also took some jumpers that made me wonder if maybe he's more than just a dunker spot type of guy.

Certainly things to criticize, but most of it I can dismiss due to youth and playing on a roster with exceedingly limited spacing. Maybe he can't figure out if he's more of a 4-- where his game needs to come along on offense-- or a 5-- where he's undersized-- but he's got the tools to fly around and defend hard and use his leaping to finish above the rim.

Hard to say how guys like this pan out, but I can easily see the tools and hustle getting him to a second contract, at least. For now, he feels like a second unit guy while he tries to develop more offensive game.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Good handler, good passer, good shooter off the catch, good defender, good athlete. Very average size for a wing, but when you don't have too many gaps in your game, I think he can make up for it with skill and feel. He did *everything* for Colorado State-- and was a really fun player to watch. He was electric down the stretch of the season.

If he moves off-ball-- and I think he will-- then you're looking at a situation where his catch-and-shoot game really needs to deliver for him to get real playing time. That transition from "do everything for your team" to "play an off ball role" can be tough. But he's also the sort of hard-working, high-character guy I trust to figure it out. I would've entertained taking him a bit higher.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Like, take what I said about Fears's size above. Now remove the possibility of playing PG, remove the elite speed, and make him, like, two inches shorter. That's Richardson.

I really like his offensive game at the college level, and he's clearly a *very* good catch-and-shoot shooter... but he's very small, he never goes right, and he's not terribly athletic. He was also a bad off-the-bounce shooter from distance. Yes, he's got a bag of tricks on offense... but can he make those finishes at the NBA level with that size and one hand?

I feel like a bet on Richardson is a bet either on him playing PG or on him becoming a top 10-15 shooter in the NBA. Latter probably more likely than the former... but that's *such* a low-likelihood outcome. I feel like, at best, he's a floor spacer for bench units who has to make enough shots to make up for the fact that he'll get hunted on defense. (He wasn't a bad defender last year, but the NBA is just an entirely different game for guys his size.)

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Only saw a couple outings from him at things like Hoop Summit, but I like the shiftiness as a creator. Change of pace, Eurostep, etc-- feels like a very classic "overseas first round PG prospect" type of dude. Also has some scoring prowess-- pull-up midrange, layups/floaters, etc. When I thought he was going to college, I thought, "Oh, this dude will be an All-Conference type of guy right away."

His shot is funky, though, for sure. I read he made a good percentage of them off catch-and-shoot, but it doesn't pass the eye test. He's also, like many "plays with pace" guards with size, not really an above-average NBA athlete, so it's hard to imagine the defense really becoming a net positive.

Still, I think he's a nice roll of the dice in the late first for a team looking for off-the-bench point guard production. He may take a little time-- and he could definitely crash and burn if the 3s never fall-- but he stood out in the couple games I've seen him play.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

for the other team

--------

I think he's definitely a net positive NBA player, because guys with his combo of size and skills and coordination in movement are pretty rare. He's a good player inside, good rebounder, good finisher. He's a good player in ball screens because he handles and passes so well for a PF. As Will pointed out, he was quite turnover-prone this year because he'd push the issue and try to squeeze the ball into some tight spaces, but I'm not as concerned next level given his on-ball reps will likely be reduced (though it'd behoove Brooklyn to sign more shooting to create more space). Also, when those passes do connect, they're *gorgeous*-- and given that Michigan was way better offensively when he was on the floor vs off, I think he does enough on that end to merit PT at the next level.

My bigger question is where he fits positionally. If you play him as your 5, you're getting a monster advantage on offense-- but only if you're playing a certain system. He's not big or athletic enough to play at the rim, and if you played that way, you're not utilizing his skills. But if he's your 5, he's not really a rim protector, not explosive or long enough to deal with NBA bigs inside. If he's going to be a 4, his offense gives less positional advantage in a lot of matchups unless his handle tightens and turnovers decrease. I honestly think he can probably hang defensively with a number of 4s-- I think he moves better than people would think for a guy of his size and relatively limited first step speed-- but he has to probably stick a higher percentage of his 3s to play there.

Olynyk is at 37% from 3 for his career and has made a very nice career for himself as a versatile 4/5 guy who can slide to either position. If Wolf shot at that clip, I could see him doing similar. For now, I think he's a great value where Brooklyn picked him up given the relatively scarcity of surefire NBA players at that point in the draft. I definitely think he's an NBA player. How good he can be depends on system imo.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

is he the first guy to ever get drafted in the first round off a great FT%?

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

The number was low this year-- but he had one of the highest usage rates in the Big East and was often the focus of good perimeter defenses. He was also on the season a 37% shooter from 3 off the catch-- and I think that's far more his role next level than all the on-ball stuff. He's a fine passer in terms of finding cuts and making the extra pass, but he'll be out there specifically to create space for others. And I think he can easily do that. It's one thing to try to create 3s for yourself when you're #1 on the scouting report. It's another entirely to make CAS 3s when you're #4 or #5 on the scouting report.

My concern is defense. He's got good size and works hard, but he's a below-average athlete, not good laterally, etc. I think he's strong enough and a smart enough decision maker to still earn PT in second units as a floor spacing wing... but yeah, he's gotta make those CAS 3s at a ~40% clip to make up for the defense. Definitely worth the gamble in the 20s in this draft imo.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

I only watched PSU a couple times, but this dude is a big-ass athlete, and he's the prototype for your classic screen-setter, rim-runner type of big at the next level. I think he's limited beyond that, obviously-- and he's probably a better shot blocker than he is a defender. I would've taken him in the second round, personally, but hey, you could do worse than a guy with these tools in this draft.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

I had him on my college fantasy team this year, so I paid some attention to him throughout the year. More than anything, he was an NBA level athlete with great strength and length playing in the A10, where he could bully people around when he got downhill and more or less had his way. Whether this can be *as* effective next level depends on how his handle comes along, but he's got the tools. Good CAS shooter last year too.

He's a pretty good defender, but I think he cheats more for the big play than he does stay in front. Great steal and block guy-- could maybe even be a small ball 5 on the right team?!-- but the NBA offensive players are obviously worlds ahead of the A10.

Feels like a great guy to have taken early second, a guy who can probably play bench minutes for the Suns right away.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

the Duke bump got him drafted

--------

Really good versatile defender. Could definitely guard 1 through 3 next level, probably even some 4s. Good not great athlete. Very good strength, especially for a guard. High IQ guy. Not some elite passer, but makes good passes and doesn't take unnecessary risks with the ball, generally.

The jump shot is my worry. He made a high percentage, both this year and last, but they were all *very* open. He's simply not a guy who will create his own shot in the NBA, so he has to make those looks to stay on the floor. Brown has only made 34% of his 3s for his career, but he's also a better athlete than James, so that helps him there.

Ultimately, he screams "low offense usage, reliable defender" guy. Off the bench, you need guys like this, so he's another good pick start of the second. If he can stick those open 3s with regularity, there's outside potential to be a fifth starter given the defense, motor, and IQ.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...

Pretty simple pitch here. He's got great NBA size for a center, he was an utterly elite rim protector in college, he's a terrific finisher inside, and he's even got a little pick-and-pop potential.

But he has to play drop. No question about it. Anything else, he's likely getting burned. And he won't give you anything on offense other than PnR finishes and putbacks. Which, in the second, is okay imo.

More Christmas movies coming in 2025...