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Obviously Arizona State isn't good, but Duke would've been favored by ~15-16 at home, so beating them by 56 was an absolutely joy to watch. Especially given that Cooper didn't really do much all game.
Thoughts on the preseason Top 25:
- I would have Houston #1, not Kansas. Sampson's lost 19 games in the last 4 seasons combined and returns everyone but Shead from a team that won the Big 12 by two games last year. Obviously losing Shead is a big deal, but they'll still have a top 2 defense nationally, they'll still be at the top of the pack in turning teams over and grabbing offensive rebounds, they still have two terrific shooters from distance in Cryer and Sharp, and they'll still have potentially the best coach in America.
- I'm not *as* sold on Kansas as others. People forget they finished 27th last year in KenPom, 4 seed in the tournament. They're still no lower than, like, top 8 good this year with the depth they added... but in watching them with and without McCullar last year, they went 4-5 in games where he missed either the full game or most of the game due to injury. Storr can get hot, but he can also shoot you out of games, and he's not a net positive defender like McCullar was. Also, none of the three top returners are shooters, and Storr is more of a volume shooter-- Griffen will help in that regard, and so could Mayo in theory, but I'm not fully convinced Mayo is a high-major player and could certainly be a defensive liability. Self solved the depth problem at least, so I think they'll be better than last year, and the upside with the incoming talent is obviously there to see them as a 1 seed by year's end-- after all, they've been a 1 seed three of the last four years, lol-- but it's easy to see outcomes where this team is more like a 2 or 3 seed than a 1 due to defense and shooting. (Obviously me writing all this means Storr will get white hot when Kansas plays Duke in Vegas.)
- I'm a little surprised Duke isn't in the top 5, but I don't think 7 is completely unreasonable given that it's still a very young team and Scheyer has more question marks than any of the six coaches ranked above him. I ultimately think Duke finishes Top 5 and in the 1 seed range, thanks to the insane depth of talent on the roster and the combination of defense and shooting the team should have this year... but I get it.
Teams I'd have higher in the Top 25: - Auburn. Broome is a POY candidate, they finished Top 4 in KenPom last year, and I think replacing KD Johnson with Pegues is a big improvement. - Purdue. Painter has finished top 10 in KenPom in five of the last nine seasons, including three without Edey. I think the guy is one of the best regular season coaches in America. They return a now-upperclass backcourt from a title game run, and Kaufman-Renn is a huge breakout candidate. I'd definitely have them closer to top 10. - Kentucky. I'm waving my hand at where the analytics have them projected preseason. I think Pope is a rock star coach with an insanely fun style-- he had BYU finish top 20 in KenPom last season in their first year in the Big 12, and this roster is notably better than last year's imo. It's both deep and old-- that's a great combo in the SEC imo. I'd have them in the back half of my top 20. - Texas Tech. Uhhh, how are they not ranked? They return three terrific shooters, they add a PG in Hawkins who led the Big 10 in assist rate last year, they bring in JT Toppin who could be all-conference, and they have a coach that is a proven winner. I'd rank them above the likes of Florida/UCLA/Ole Miss.
Teams I'd have lower in the Top 25: - UNC. I know, I know, biased, etc... but I think replacing Ingram/Bacot with Tyson/Lubin/Washington is a sizable downgrade. Hubert's never *not* had Bacot-- and Ingram was just so good on both ends last year, and Tyson, while an elite shooter, is not a high-major defender at all. Davis is a POY candidate, and the freshmen look great, but that frontcourt would have them closer to top 15 than 10 in my poll imo. - Texas A&M. They finished 33rd, 33rd, and 35th in KenPom the last three years. They're old, and they're tough, but I think Top 15 is a big reach imo. I don't know where that type of improvement upside comes from. - Arkansas. The talent is all there... but Cal has finished 23rd or lower in KenPom 4 of the last 5 seasons. Unlike A&M, they absolutely have Top 10 type upside on the roster... but I'd have them in the 20s to start the year. - Ole Miss. This is a weird inclusion imo. This defense will be bad bad bad-- unless you believe the Beard/Adams reunion will magically turn them good, which I guess is possible. They wouldn't be in my top 30.
Should be a great season. Tons of really good non-conference games on the slate, and a nice combination among the best teams of stacked older lineups and teams with tons of talent upside. I'm really excited to watch. 11/13: Hot Frosty (on Netflix) 11/23: Three Wiser Men & A Boy (on Hallmark) 11/27: Christmas Under the Lights (on Hallmark Mysteries) 12/14: The Santa Class (on Hallmark)
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