Pair of high-schoolers ran Olympic standards in their respective events this weekend. Kessler is a senior in Michigan, committed to NAU but maybe not any more now that he's run faster than the HS and the NCAA record for 1500m outdoors. Knighton is a HS junior (I think) who went pro after some startlingly fast 100/200 races on the AAU circuit last summer.

Neither of these guys seems like a big threat to make the Olympic team. Knighton has the advantage of running on a pro schedule, which gives him the liberty of peaking at the trials. But he's also got Lyles and Bednarek in front of him and just starting their seasons in earnest. Plus NCAA guys who may have enough to hold on after a long season, like Terrance Laird - who's actually got the present world leader at 19.81.

Kessler has the advantage of a relatively weaker field, in the sense that there aren't a lot of American 1500m runners who've got a real shot at medalling in Tokyo. Plus, the 1500m field seems more likely to get diluted with folks possibly moving up to the 5000m (Teare, Hocker, Thompson) or the steeple (Ferlic seems likelier there, and he's in Kessler's training group). On the other hand, guys like Centrowitz and Engels are much more skilled at racing through the rounds and they're just starting to heat up - so the available slots might be just as limited for Kessler as for Knighton.

Throw in the stronger possibility for more chaotic nonsense in the 1500m final at trials than the 200m and I think Kessler has a better chance of actually make the finals and maybe the Olympic team. But I don't think either one of them is very likely.

There's a bunch of high school girls who've qualified for the trials as well, including three in the 800m. The 800/1500m is *stocked* right now for the Americans, so the trip to the trials is probably closer to a good experience for Gorriaran, Willis, and Whittaker. Though I'm pulling for Whittaker. She's local and runs at a bunch of the meets my team hosts. She ran a 2:45 1000m race at one of our meets last winter and won by like 30 seconds. It was incredible.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Those crafty vets find a way to get the pace down to 3:50 to win a spot on the team.

>Those crafty vets find a way to get the pace down to 3:50 to
>win a spot on the team.

He can really finish, and has routinely passed polished, accomplished professional runners in the last 150m of these races. But that's not the same thing as being ground through a few rounds of racing and then finding yourself on the line with, say, Matt Centrowitz - who you've perfectly singled out with that otherwise absurd time because he managed to actually bully multiple sub 3:30 guys into running slower than a high school county championship race for three laps before kicking in 50.xx.

Hobbs Kessler doesn't have that move, and if there's an Olympic birth on the line then I don't think he's got a chance of positioning himself to finish top-3 in a race where that's likely to occur.

He's got a chance to be great pretty soon, but yeah - I agree. Those savvy veterans like Centrowitz and Engels aren't done yet, and they're not going to be nice to him just because he's young and fast.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I can only make sense of that race if I focus my attention exclusively on Centrowitz and simultaneously assume that Asbel Kiprop is one of the the worst tactical 1500m racers in history.

The pace is obviously incredibly slow (came through 800m in 2:16 and 1100m in about 2:59-3:00) but it's not like Centrowitz isn't working. He gets out hard for the first straight and then hits the brakes hard, and spends the next 1000m managing the crowd in back of him with tiny mini-surges so that nobody takes the lead until the bell lap. There's also some rough elbows and uncomfortable inside-passes on anybody who tries to get in front and push the pace (Souleiman tried it a couple times between 900-1100) but he's never so rough that he risks a trip (though there is one in back of him when Kwemoi goes down early) because not only is that disastrous if it happens to you but it also tends to make runners jumpy - which would break his hold on the race.

And even after it works, he's still so patient with his kick. He doesn't have one big move, but a steady, aggressive push from 1100-1300m that somehow still coaxes a bunch of runners in back of him into a false sense of security.

Such an odd race. I mean, on one hand, Centrowitz absolutely did get lucky. There were two entire laps in the middle when the numerous runners in front of him could have said to themselves "do you know what Matt Centrowitz can't do? Run under 3:30" and then pushed the pace. Guys like Kiprop and Iguider and Mahkloufi, veterans at the peak of their game, don't really have any excuse for not doing that. But on the other hand, he made that race, including a field of the best 1500m runners on the planet, conform precisely to his will. It may have needed luck to work out, but the race itself wasn't an accident.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Announcers said about give minutes between heats, went 1:50.xx, 1:49.xx, and 1:53-4.

Pretty fun to watch. I feel like I'd have an opinion beyond "pretty fun" about it if he'd closed that last one in the same range as the first two.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

because 1500m will not be the slow race that it was in 2016, to where it
morphed into a kicker’s race for the last 300m. The Africans, Asbel Kirop
specifically, allowed the race to go out at turtle pace, which benefited
Centro, because he is a kicker. I imagine Asbel forgot his PEDs, so he didn’t
have the speed to go out fast (he is currently serving a 4 year doping ban).
So Centro got lucky.

As far as Centro, his former association with Alberto Salazar and the Nike
Oregon project has tainted his medals. So that Olympic performance was
fake. He hasn’t come close to those medal performances since leaving NOP.


Only shot America has is Donovan Brazier. He might double 800/1500, but even
he wouldn’t be able to cut it. Plus he has a history with NOP. He joined NOP
and just started putting up blazing 800m....

It’s pretty much a wrap. No one on this planet can beat Timothy Cheruiyot, his
African countrymen, or the kid from Norway. Timothy doesn’t go out slow, and
he is dropping 3:29 and 3:30 like leaves falling off trees. ...but their all doped
too. *shrugs*

ALL HAIL THE KING of LOSING: LEBRON
Bulls | Bears | White Sox | Yankees | Notre Dame | Illinois | Chelsea | Real Madrid

Cheruiyot is amazing and absurdly consistent, as you point out. Can't see anybody beating him in an honestly-paced race, and after Centrowitz the Kenyans aren't going to let anybody force a slow pace ever again. There was a cool article a couple years ago about Cheruiyot and Manangoi's coach specifically pushing that angle in their development. I'll post it if I can track it down.

Wouldn't be shocked to see Ingebritsen, especially if he has some help in one of his brothers making it through to finals, trying to bully a slower pace. He's a big guy with a strong kick, but nothing like 3:00 through 1100. Too much chaos and uncertainty there.

Beyond those two, though, I think it's more open than you do. At least as it appears right now. With DL pushing onward, there'll be some more names popping up. But looking at the 1500m lists, El Bakkali will probably still be steepling. McSweyn and Hoare are running really well, but it feels like they might be peaking right now. Tefera is never great at the right time, but maybe this year. I assume Mahkloufi will either surface a few weeks before Tokyo running 3:31 or be suspended. Nothing in between.

Point is, I don't think there's a hard top-three so much as a hard top-two. But it's a small distinction.

I agree with PTGC above. Kessler's going to have a tough time making the finals, and all these pros who are super nice and supportive now are going to stop screwing around when their money is at stake. I'd love for him to prove me wrong and break through, though. Even if I disagree with you about two or three favorites at the top of the 1500m pile, that dynamic is going to end one way or another. Having an American running world class times at 18 years old, looking crazy smooth, and without a history with the US youth track meatgrinder is really exciting. Making the team and getting his feet wet in Tokyo would be really good news for the next five years.

All this applies to Erriyon Knighton as well, but it's still a few weeks away from really having a firm idea what the US 200m squad is going to look like. Also, though I don't think he's got much chance to make the team either, Knighton has one thing going for him that Kessler doesn't. If you can make the US team at 200m you can definitely win a medal in international competition at 200m. It's pretty much the same quality of runner you've got to beat.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

because it comes off as being a Debbie Downer sometimes. However, in
track and field it’s all by the numbers. There is no such thing as the eye test,
because there are several runners who have terrible form, but can run fast times.

With that being said, I don’t get all that excited about college kids until they
become pros and have a few years under their belts. They do so much running
throughout the college season, that they are running on fumes when the US
Championships come around. So most of them never qualify for the Olympics
or World Championships, and if they do find a way to qualify, they don’t make it out
of the Olympic heats.

The running schedule for college track and field athletes is absolutely brutal.
Indoor running season to the Indoor Championships, and Outdoor running
season to the Outdoor championships, and after that is the US Championships. A
runner simply cannot hold his/her peak for that long, so they usually burnout
after the NCAA Championships. I see the Africans and Europeans dominating.

Also, the SLOMO era is dead. Running went backwards time wise under Mo Farah
and Centro. The early 2000s saw runners like EL G, Bernard Legat , and Bekele
put up insane times, and then the Centro and Mo era implemented a tactical form of running that turned races into 400m sprints. ...Runners have moved back to running
fast from beginning to end. This era will not be kind to kickers

On the women side of the draw, Houlihan definitely has a shot at a medal.
Genzebe Dibaba looks fried at 1500m, and should just go to the road( she’s blazing
half marathons now). NOP is dead, so I don’t see Hassan being the world beater
that she was in 2019. Jenny Simpson is retired. Faith Kipyegon, the love of my life,
and defending Olympic champ, will conquer another gold.

ALL HAIL THE KING of LOSING: LEBRON
Bulls | Bears | White Sox | Yankees | Notre Dame | Illinois | Chelsea | Real Madrid

>NOP is dead, so I don’t see Hassan
>being the world beater
>that she was in 2019.

Sure about that?

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

That 10,000m record was set 4 years ago by Almaz Ayana, who set that
Record by 14 seconds. And the record she broke was set by
a Chinese runner who admitted that she was doped when she broke
the record. So that record was looked at similar to FLo Jo’s record,
a record that was untouchable...so imagine what people were thinking
when Almaz broke that record.

Now Sifan comes and breaks Almaz record by 10 seconds, so all I can
say is Salazar passed everything over to her. So I guess she will continue to
be a world beater.

Shit between Victor Conte and Alberto Salazar...chemical geniuses.

Sifan is this era’s Mary Decker with her range from 800m to 10000m,
Alberto was Mary Decker’s coach....and Decker got caught for PEDing.

Think about this:

“All four men’s and women’s 5000m and 10,000m world records have been broken over the last 10 months.”

I have no idea what we are going to see in the Olympics...I’m a natural guy, and it
is very hard for me to accept anything that appears to be unnatural.

I really don’t know how to be a fan anymore ...don’t want to be the complainer, but
at the same time I know what I’m watching is unreal.

ALL HAIL THE KING of LOSING: LEBRON
Bulls | Bears | White Sox | Yankees | Notre Dame | Illinois | Chelsea | Real Madrid

First time I heard of her, she almost broke the indoor WR for the 600m at age 16.
Now she's 18 and breaking all kinds of collegiate and junior records in the 400m and 800m.

She's running just the 400m at the NCAAs, but I think she plans on trying the 800m for the Olympics. She'd be competitive in both (49.68s in the 400 (ranked #4 in the world), 1:57.73 in the 800m (ranked #2 in the world).

I love watching her run. That indoor 1:58 was one of the easiest 800m efforts I've ever seen.

>She's running just the 400m at the NCAAs, but I think she
>plans on trying the 800m for the Olympics. She'd be
>competitive in both (49.68s in the 400 (ranked #4 in the
>world), 1:57.73 in the 800m (ranked #2 in the world).

Yeah, the focus on the 400m this spring makes me think they've got a full-season plan for her, beyond NCAA competition, for the 800m. That event could be really fun to watch all the way through the rounds in the Olympics. There's still a few few veterans that are faster than her and have been on this ride before, and some other only-slightly less impressive breakthroughs, like those indistinguishable British runners that seem to run 1:58 every weekend.

But she seems like one of the rare NCAA stars from this season that is currently racing with enough in the tank for a good summer season. Or at least I hope.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad