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I've been *really* resistant to the idea that he should go #1, because I saw a *lot* of Melo in HS, and his style of play was, to put it mildly, deplorable. Zero defense, 40 foot shots chucked early in the shot clock... and this was when he was FIFTEEN.
Despite all that, maybe that's the reason why he's such a high draft prospect today. LaVar gave him a lot of bad, but probably also gave him a lot of good. Because the bad is obvious-- the lack of discipline, the poor decision making, the idea that he had free rein to do anything and everything, the thought that defense was worthless, etc....
... but the good is there too, because by making Melo believe he was the Guy Who Had To Do Everything from a very early age, he now has some truly terrific skills in his toolkit:
- He's the best passer in the draft. Elite passer, elite vision. The fact that he's now 6'7/6'8 makes this even more enticing.
- He's one of the best ballhandlers in the draft, which, again, at 18 and at 6'7/6'8, is just of insane value in today's NBA.
- Like Lonzo, he's a really good rebounder for a guard. I also think there's hope for Melo's defense thanks to what we've seen from Lonzo. Lonzo was a bad defender in college, but he's turned into a good defender in the NBA... and since Melo is bigger than Lonzo and his hips are less stiff than Lonzo's, I think one could reasonably coach him into a switchable defender in the NBA. His anticipation and his fundamentals are all there.* (Asterisk coming in the bad side.)
- ... sigh, god help me, I also think there's a chance he could be a not-awful shooter. He's got elite touch with floaters in the paint (with both hands to boot) and he's a good free throw shooter. The indicators are there-- it's just a matter of if you trust that they'll convert into a decent shooter. I don't think he even needs to be a *good* shooter to be a very good NBA player... but he needs to at least become an average one. But if you actually think he can hit 34ish% from 3? Then you probably need to take him #1.
The problem with Melo, of course, on both sides of the ball, is discipline. Awful early shot-clock chucks. Plays taken completely off on defense. Settling for mid-range jumpers when he has the tools to easily get into the paint, which leads to some concerns about his desire to initiate contact. Like, these are all some pretty serious red flags-- which is a big reason why this draft is so dicey in the top 3-4. There just isn't a guy with monster upside who both fits the style of 2020 NBA and has a reasonably high floor.
That said, I think Melo will probably go #1-- maybe not to Minnesota, because I don't really like the pairing of him with Russell and Towns (it'd be a defensive nightmare there), but I'd imagine Minnesota (and Golden State, if Melo doesn't go #1) will have a team courting them for this pick to take a flier on Melo at or near the top, because the upside is just too obvious. A 6'8 kid with the best court vision in the draft who can create separation with his handles and has the upside to become a switchable defender? You're just not going to find better in this draft. If you're a bad team, you *have* to take the risk. And really, if you're a good team with a strong player development program (looking at you, Golden State), and Melo lands in your system, then he's definitely got the tools to be a star.
But fuuuuuuuuck, I'd be gulping as I pull the trigger, admittedly. It's just hard to shake how awful his play was in high school. I've seen the tape since, I see the reasons why he's a contender for the top pick... but I'd be scared. Like, the upside is obviously All-Star-- maybe even higher if his shot becomes decent-- but the floor is, like, higher usage Shaun Livingston. Which would be a disaster for the #1 pick. If I'm Minnesota, I'm calling every terrible team in desperate need of a reason to hope for the future, looking to send Ball that way, collect safer assets, and plan for next year's far-superior draft.
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