I'd usually wait until a little closer to the draft to post this, but I desperately need the distraction. So that said, you know the drill.

I'll list the prospects, you list your thoughts, as detailed or as basic ("he'll be good"/"he'll be sorry") as you want. As meticulously bias-free as possible or as blindly agenda-driven as you want.

Get on record before these guys play a single NBA game as to how you think they'll pan out. Stake claims, "buy stock," etc.

BUT DON'T BE LATE.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

I've been *really* resistant to the idea that he should go #1, because I saw a *lot* of Melo in HS, and his style of play was, to put it mildly, deplorable. Zero defense, 40 foot shots chucked early in the shot clock... and this was when he was FIFTEEN.

Despite all that, maybe that's the reason why he's such a high draft prospect today. LaVar gave him a lot of bad, but probably also gave him a lot of good. Because the bad is obvious-- the lack of discipline, the poor decision making, the idea that he had free rein to do anything and everything, the thought that defense was worthless, etc....

... but the good is there too, because by making Melo believe he was the Guy Who Had To Do Everything from a very early age, he now has some truly terrific skills in his toolkit:

- He's the best passer in the draft. Elite passer, elite vision. The fact that he's now 6'7/6'8 makes this even more enticing.

- He's one of the best ballhandlers in the draft, which, again, at 18 and at 6'7/6'8, is just of insane value in today's NBA.

- Like Lonzo, he's a really good rebounder for a guard. I also think there's hope for Melo's defense thanks to what we've seen from Lonzo. Lonzo was a bad defender in college, but he's turned into a good defender in the NBA... and since Melo is bigger than Lonzo and his hips are less stiff than Lonzo's, I think one could reasonably coach him into a switchable defender in the NBA. His anticipation and his fundamentals are all there.* (Asterisk coming in the bad side.)

- ... sigh, god help me, I also think there's a chance he could be a not-awful shooter. He's got elite touch with floaters in the paint (with both hands to boot) and he's a good free throw shooter. The indicators are there-- it's just a matter of if you trust that they'll convert into a decent shooter. I don't think he even needs to be a *good* shooter to be a very good NBA player... but he needs to at least become an average one. But if you actually think he can hit 34ish% from 3? Then you probably need to take him #1.

The problem with Melo, of course, on both sides of the ball, is discipline. Awful early shot-clock chucks. Plays taken completely off on defense. Settling for mid-range jumpers when he has the tools to easily get into the paint, which leads to some concerns about his desire to initiate contact. Like, these are all some pretty serious red flags-- which is a big reason why this draft is so dicey in the top 3-4. There just isn't a guy with monster upside who both fits the style of 2020 NBA and has a reasonably high floor.

That said, I think Melo will probably go #1-- maybe not to Minnesota, because I don't really like the pairing of him with Russell and Towns (it'd be a defensive nightmare there), but I'd imagine Minnesota (and Golden State, if Melo doesn't go #1) will have a team courting them for this pick to take a flier on Melo at or near the top, because the upside is just too obvious. A 6'8 kid with the best court vision in the draft who can create separation with his handles and has the upside to become a switchable defender? You're just not going to find better in this draft. If you're a bad team, you *have* to take the risk. And really, if you're a good team with a strong player development program (looking at you, Golden State), and Melo lands in your system, then he's definitely got the tools to be a star.

But fuuuuuuuuck, I'd be gulping as I pull the trigger, admittedly. It's just hard to shake how awful his play was in high school. I've seen the tape since, I see the reasons why he's a contender for the top pick... but I'd be scared. Like, the upside is obviously All-Star-- maybe even higher if his shot becomes decent-- but the floor is, like, higher usage Shaun Livingston. Which would be a disaster for the #1 pick. If I'm Minnesota, I'm calling every terrible team in desperate need of a reason to hope for the future, looking to send Ball that way, collect safer assets, and plan for next year's far-superior draft.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

He's a super smart player. Like really smart.

But I definitely question his mentality. Way too entitled for a player. Maybe the NBA humbles him a bit.

his potential def showed these last two years...

To people like US, a record is a piece of history. A moment in time.
Most people don't get it.

Average

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Folks are hung up on that ugly ass jumper. He may not be an all-star, but I would be happy with him as my PG.

------------------
One Hundred.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

If he can't make shots and keep defenses honest, then he's not a Top 15-20 PG in the NBA. He's either a bottom half of the league starter or a backup on a team with a top PG. I'd call that average.

12/6/7 on 40% FG shooting and 56% FT shooting can't be called an above average NBA PG right today. For comparison, Elfrid Payton did 10/5/7 on 44% FG shooting and 57% FT shooting... and had a higher assist rate than Lonzo.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

It's in the subject line, you didn't even need to read my actual post to know that I think that, lol.

My point is that Lonzo is an average overall PG in the NBA right today. I didn't even think this was a debateable point.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

>It's in the subject line, you didn't even need to read my
>actual post to know that I think that, lol.
>
>My point is that Lonzo is an average overall PG in the NBA
>right today. I didn't even think this was a debateable point.


you can use "advanced stats" to argue strawman points but the the bottom line is Lonzo Ball is a better basketball player than Elfrid Payton on both ends of the floor right now and has a way higher ceiling. It Lonzo an all-star today? No, but the potential is there.

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

> but the
>the bottom line is Lonzo Ball is a better basketball player
>than Elfrid Payton on both ends of the floor right now and has
>a way higher ceiling

No one said otherwise. What is happening in this post right now? lmao

Someone said Lonzo is above average. I disagreed by saying he's a slightly better Elfrid Payton right today. Then you come in acting like someone argued Payton is better than Lonzo, when it's literally *in my subject line* that he's not, lol. And when I pointed that out, you said "Exactly," as if you won the argument... that no one started... over a subject that no one disputed.

I feel like you're having a tough week. Go have a beer, kick back, relax, lol.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

>he's a slightly better Elfrid Payton right today.

that's a LIE and now you're trying to backpedal out of it.

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

Where that comment is the actual subject line.

Have a good day, Truth. Be blessed.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

>If he can't make shots and keep defenses honest, then he's
>not a Top 15-20 PG in the NBA. He's either a bottom half of
>the league starter or a backup on a team with a top PG. I'd
>call that average.
>
>12/6/7 on 40% FG shooting and 56% FT shooting can't be called
>an above average NBA PG right today. For comparison, Elfrid
>Payton did 10/5/7 on 44% FG shooting and 57% FT shooting...
>and had a higher assist rate than Lonzo.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

he's sorry man. so what if he is an alright defender.

what good is a PG that cant shoot, cant drive and cant finish at the rim.

best case is his spotup 3 comes around and he's a role player. yeah his passes might look pretty, but if he doesnt do it often whats the point of them. he literally puts zero stress on a defense.

<--- Big Baller World Order

he’s a better shooting version of his brother

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

Lonzo doesn't have his scoring skills, but has the drive. I do not know if Melo has it.

He needs a Jimmy Butler in his life. Somebody who is going to bust his ass everyday in practice.


He either becomes a perennial all star or a bum that scored 45 in one game during his rookie season.

------------------
One Hundred.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

The strengths are obvious:

- elite body
- elite big man explosiveness
- strong rim protector
- fights for rebounds, which not all bigs that big consistently do
- ideal pick-and-roll guy
- smart kid, by all accounts high character

I think there's reason to believe he's easily the safest of the top 3 picks in the draft (maybe even Top 5, if you think guys like Hayes or Avdija would be the next two off the board).

That said, I simply don't believe the shooting. I've heard people say he could be pick-and-pop level. And I'll even grant those people that the mechanics don't look bad. But he's just *never* been a guy with a good track record of making 3s or even mid-ranges consistently in HS. So if the shooting happens, it'll be based nearly purely on the eye test.

Furthermore, he just doesn't really have any of the other features that a face-the-basket type of big would have. He's not a good passer. He can't handle the ball. I think his offensive upside is, realistically, DeAndre Jordan with a 20% pick-and-pop 3-pointer and a 65-70% FT. Which, let's be clear, if he defends like Jordan, is probably an All-Star/All-NBA type of player, lol.

But while he's got Jordan upside on defense, imo, he's got some things to work on. He's terrific at the rim, but it's not clear from his HS days that he can rotate on defense well. He wasn't the strongest player in HS, so it'll be interesting to see how he does in the early days against grown man bigs with his newly developed strength. Finally, he's not switchable imo due to lateral movement slowness. He's probably, right today, more in line with Hassan Whiteside defensively than DeAndre Jordan. Which certainly isn't bad when he's at the rim...

... but with the game increasingly going to switchability and versatility, it'll be very interesting to see if you can be a consistent winner if a guy like Wiseman is, say, one of your top 2 players on the floor. He's a back-to-the-basket, rim-runner type of big on offense and a pure rim protector on defense. Do I think there's value in that? Absolutely. I think he's a starting NBA center. And do I think there's upside there? Sure, if he develops a jump shot and/or some added lateral speed, then he's an All-Star big.

But if he doesn't, then his upside is probably... again, maybe Hassan Whiteside? And while in this draft, that's probably a win (and, again, you've got a higher floor here than some of the other top picks), I'm not convinced people wouldn't view that as a disappointment at the 2 spot. And I'm certainly not convinced a Hassan Whiteside type as one of your best players puts you in a position to be a winning franchise in 2020 the way that a wing or guard would.

If you're someone like Golden State, where you'd *only need* Wiseman for rim running and rim protecting? Then it's a beautiful fit. He can give you minutes right away inside, and he can work on his jumper with some great shooting coaches off the floor. But if he went somewhere like, say, Charlotte, where they're going to ask a lot more of him early, where they'll have him creating for himself more, shooting more right away? That's a tough situation for him imo.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

------------------
One Hundred.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

I'll start with the bad, since I really like Edwards. He displayed at Georgia a lot of the negatives you see from elite prospects when they go to bad schools. His effort was inconsistent on offense at times. His shot selection was too often "whatever I want it to be." And his concern about defense simply wasn't there. It honestly reminded me a lot of Ben Simmons's college days, where he'd carry his team to victory in tough situations at times, but especially once it was clear the season wasn't going to work out, and once he got weary of the constant double teams, the effort just didn't carry over game to game.

That said, I really like him.

- He's really strong. Grown man strength on the wing-- think guys like Oladipo and Wade in terms of strength (honestly probably how Crean won him over to come to Georgia).
- Strength, athleticism, and wingspan give him crazy defensive potential. Simmons was an awful defender in college... and he's now a top 3 defender in the NBA. I think Edwards is the sort of guy who has the potential to make a considerable leap on defense once he's at the next level.
- Along the same lines, I could chalk up his tendency to settle for shots to the same thing. Increased spacing and a lack of constant double teams should immediately allow a player like Edwards to see the floor more.
- Wasn't always the most willing passer at Georgia (who could blame him), but he's definitely a good passer when he's looking.
- Elite in transition. In a fast-paced game with floor spacing, he's a weapon.
- Really nice touch around the basket... he's not just a bruiser, he can finish.
- He scores in a variety of ways with a number of shifty moves, spins, etc.
- Not a "shooter" at present, but he can definitely shoot off the dribble, and his 77% FT numbers suggest that, when not facing double teams and crowded floors, he should find better shots.

The "Dion Waiters" comparison is tossed out a lot here, but I think that's assuming that Edwards will never give a shit about defense and/or shot selection, and it's easy to justify why his situation in college led to him punting his effort in several ways. Besides, I think "a bigger Dion Waiters with better FT shooting and higher switchable defense potential" is an intriguing prospect, especially in this draft. Worst case scenario, you get Dion Waiters, an offensive spark off the bench. Best case scenario, you get something... Victor Oladipo-ish? It'll all come down to what sort of consistency he displays at the next level when given NBA spacing.

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but being somewhere like Golden State would work wonders for Edwards-- he'd be an improvement over Wiggins immediately, tbh-- and being somewhere like Charlotte would be more likely to set him onto the Dion Waiters path. With so many of the higher upside prospects in this draft having fairly low floors, destination is really going to matter in whether these dudes pan out or not.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

If you were designing the perfect offensive big man for 2020, it'd be Toppin. 6'9, 6'11 wingspan. Terrific shooter, ball handler, and passer for his size. Essentially functioned as the chief playmaker out of the high post for Dayton a lot of the season, and it was a huge reason why they were so elite. He's also an absurd leaper and quick straight-line cutter, making him ideal for PnR, rim-running, baseline cuts, transition fast breaks, etc. Too skilled for bigger defenders to deal with, too big for smaller ones. It'd be easy to see why any team would fall in love with what he could do for any offense. Like, put a few shooters around him? That's deadly.

That said, the defense suuuuuucks. First, the physical problems: he's very top-heavy, so most bigger players-- and even smaller stronger ones-- could really push him around in the post. Also, as fast as he is straight line, he is slow footed laterally with the stiffest hips imaginable. He'll never be switchable without a serious overhaul of his body. And even then, even if he were able to magically lower his center of gravity, drastically loosen his hips, etc... his instincts just aren't good on that end. They never really asked him to do anything other than weak side shot blocking, so his rotations, his positioning, his helping, all of it is really bad.

Don't really know what the upside comparison is here... Boris Diaw with better offense and way worse defense? There's still tremendous value here, especially if you can get him to be even an okay-to-mediocre team defender, because he can do so many things for your offense, especially in today's style of play. I just worry about the floor, because we've seen offensive players drop out of the league if they can't stay on the court.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

------------------
One Hundred.

I’m pretty sure he goes 4th right after Charlotte picks and ends up being a star and everyone in Charlotte wonders how missed on him.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Like, yes, there's no *question* that Wiseman's got the upside. On paper, you want the 7'1/7'6 wingspan athlete over the 6'9/7'1 wingspan athlete. I've also seen people argue that Wiseman has more pick and pop potential than Okongwu, and while I don't really believe in Wiseman's jumper, I admit that that's probably true. So it's clear that Wiseman will go first.

But let's look at what Okongwu has right today over Wiseman:

- On defense, Okongwu is switchable across the board. One of the best PnR defenders in the draft. Can move laterally on the perimeter if on the switch, is fast/explosive enough to catch anyone driving. Knows exactly where to be on defense at all times. And while he doesn't have Wiseman's wings for blocking shots, Okongwu has superb shot-blocking timing and explosiveness. He's also got at least ten pounds of muscle on Wiseman, and while I don't think he's yet at a point where he can handle the biggest and strongest of big men in the NBA, in 2-3 years I think he can hold his own there.

- On offense, Okongwu has terrific handles for a big man. He also has more moves in the post than Wiseman does right today. He also knows who he is: he's not a shooter at this juncture, and likely won't ever be, but he wants to play through your body instead of fading away or trying to face the basket-- he won't shy away from contact.

So I think Okongwu is the sort of player in 2020 that's immediately conducive to winning basketball. He's a tough motherfucker who wants to do everything to help your team win. In a season after we saw how Bam Adebayo drastically affected the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if someone saw Okongwu as Adebayo-lite and reached for him in the top 4-5. I don't know if he's *as* versatile as Adebayo, obviously, but that role is just so key going forward in the NBA, and if anyone deserves the label "Bam-esque" in this draft, it's Okongwu.

And I'd *easily* take Bam today over Wiseman. Would I take Okongwu? Probably not, just because of Wiseman's upside... but if Okongwu ends up a more valuable player in the NBA than Wiseman, I wouldn't be even remotely surprised. I think if he falls to the 8-10 range, he's going to be a massive steal for this draft.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

His range of possible draft positions is something like 5-9... but I'd strongly consider in this draft reaching for him as high as 3. He's one of my favorite prospects in the draft.

The best defender in the draft, first of all. Can easily defend 1-4, thanks to terrific strength, speed in all directions, and intelligence. Dude knows exactly where to be, how to disrupt, how to communicate. He also plays hard, high motor at all times.

On offense, he's got potential to be the secondary creator on the floor in the NBA. He's got good handles for a wing, and he's a really great passer for a wing. He was the best finisher of any wing in this draft too, so he has touch around the rim.

The shot is the only downside, as it was inconsistent last year... but we're in a league right where we've seen guys like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler be undervalued in the draft because they couldn't really shoot, but then, because they were driven, hard-working dudes, they became good shooters and ultimately franchise players.

I don't think Okoro's upside matches either of those guys... but if you told me he'd definitely shoot the league average from 3, I'd tell you he's an Iguodala type, the sort of guy who, if not a multi-year ASG type, at least starts for winning teams and makes a couple of All-Defense teams, maybe even an ASG squeezed in there. And he's just such a hard worker and such a high IQ player. I really like his chances-- so I'd reach, especially in a draft where so many of the high upside players have low floors.

Like, I think Okoro's worst case scenario is something like "a bigger Tony Allen with better playmaking" or "a bigger but slightly less skilled Marcus Smart." Even in the worst case, I think he should start, play good wing defense, and help teams win.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

He's got a kinda weird shooting form, but it's consistent and it goes in. There's a chance his slower release fucks some of that consistency up next level... but he's a 6'6 PG with terrific court vision. I love his eyes-- he's not an athlete, but his fakes are supreme, and he just knows how to make his defender bend to his whim. I honestly thought he could've come out last year, and that was *before* he had the terrific season he had last year.

Not the greatest defender because he's not the *greatest* athlete... but he knows his spots and he knows how to hurt offenses in those passing lanes. I think about the possibility of him going to Atlanta and playing alongside Trae Young-- that's a tantalizing tandem on offense, especially with guys like Reddish and Hunter on the wing who are good passers in their own right. He could be the piece that takes the ball movement on offense into the stratosphere.

I don't think Haliburton is the sort of guy who can create his own shot as well as a guy like Dinwiddie can, but I think he can provide a lot of the other things Dinwiddie does. Good team defense, good team offense. A good spot up shooter, a great creator for others. Again, not a guy you'd expect in a normal draft to be a top 6 sort of dude... but I think he's got a pretty high floor and a pretty high ceiling if he can get better at creating for himself off the bounce. Starter on a good team sort of ceiling. In this draft, that's at minimum a top 8 pick imo.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Not quite the passer Lonzo is, but a better shooter than Lonzo is (even with, like Lonzo, a funky form), and he brings a lot of the stuff Lonzo brings to the table while also probably being a better scorer at the next level than Lonzo's been. I still like a lot about the Dinwiddie comparison, but I'm not convinced he'll ever get to *that* level of scorer, and I think he'll always be a better creator for others than creator for himself, even if he does get the jumper consistently going.

I also think he should ultimately be a plus defender next level, that a lot of the things I didn't love about Haliburton's man-to-man defense in college... were also things I didn't love about Lonzo's. Now that Lonzo's in the NBA and is no longer *the guy,* he puts a lot more effort into that defense and uses his IQ and good positional size to be a good NBA defender. I think Haliburton can do the same.

As I said above, he's got starter-on-a-good-team ceiling. I don't really think he's a guy who becomes an All-Star unless the jumper really takes off... but his floor is just so high imo. The more I think about him, the more I like him-- and I really hope he goes at 6 or even 7. Would really hate to see the Knicks take him and mismanage him as they'd be bound to do.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

I wouldn't be surprised if someone reached for Hampton, because if you buy that the shot can be consistent, then his upside is really high. Terrific speed, terrific handles, good playmaking. On offense, the kid gets it. On defense, I'd say he doesn't, but still, you're looking at a guy who could give you something like OJ Mayo production...

... if he can hit 35ish% from 3. Like, if he's hiting 30ish% from 3, then he's Dante Exum. It's a huge swing skill for him, because if he has that figured out, then as we've seen other places in the NBA, the defense won't really matter, because teams will play a guy who's that shifty and that quick... if he can shoot.

I usually don't really give thoughts about overseas guys because I don't know them, but I watched Hampton some in HS when the rumor was he was interested in Duke, so it's not like I've never seen him before (whereas Hayes and Advija and those guys? total question marks for me). His jumper was never his strongest suit, and the footage you see from him overseas definitely wasn't promising... but he's had a longer pre-draft process than normal, he's worked with Mike Miller the whole time, and reports... seem good? But then again, it's in an empty gym. Who really knows?

So I'd reach for him at a certain point, especially if I'm a bad team who just absolutely needs a grand slam, because his upside is considerably higher than a lot of players in that 7-20 range. But, like a lot of other dudes in this draft, this can go either way in a *big* way.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

But athletically, I dunno....

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

One of the better defenders in the draft, both at point of attack and in team defense. Really good spot-up shooter and catch-and-shoot guy from beyond the perimeter, and he's got some good pull-up jumper game in the PnR too. He's got limited upside, but he's got a really high floor. Any team ready to win now that needs a wing? They could do waaaay worse.

In a different draft, he's not a lotto pick, he's the guy that joins a playoff team and immediately makes an All-Rookie team because he can contribute right away. This year, it won't be that, because he'll end up on a worse team-- but if he falls to someone like 10 or lower, it could go very well.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

I'm not saying he shouldn't go high-- I'm just saying he's not there today. Like, if you took last season in a bubble and said he'd be a top 10 pick in any draft, even one as weak as this one, I'd say you were nuts. He currently can't shoot, can't do much on offense away from the rim without coughing up turnovers, can't switch on defense.

That said, he's 6'8 with a nearly 7 foot wingspan and an insanely wide frame that can take on more muscle-- even though he's already really strong. While he's very turnover prone today, he's got good handles and decent passing for someone his size and age. He's not a chucker, and he's happy to play a role and play it well. His 32% from 3 and 84% from FT suggest he could absolutely be a PnR asset, both at rim-running and at the pick-and-pop. Like, some of the things I said about Okoro's upside? Add height, wingspan, strength, and a better shot, and that's Williams.

Williams is just way more raw today than Okoro. So the floor is way lower than Okoro's. But in this draft, if you have a pick between, say, 8 and 14? I can't imagine *not* taking a guy like Williams who has star upside, even if he also has a floor that's something like "goonish unrefined small ball defender who does 6 and 5."

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

I realize that's a snarky subject line, especially since Rozier had by any measure his best season to date last year. But if you look at where Rozier was when he came into the draft and where Lewis is, I see a similar role for Lewis immediately in the NBA to the one Rozier played in Boston-- except that Lewis is, today, a better shooter and playmaker than Rozier was when he joined Boston. Lightning quick, tenacious on both sides, dynamite in PnR,

He's still a bit out of control at times, and his decision making as a playmaker can get a *little* streaky... but he also was 18 basically all of last season, so I think there's some good upside here. In an ideal world, he's a backup PG/sixth man early, more of a energy scoring guard than a true PG-- best case scenario, I could see him becoming a Lou Williams type.

And who knows? If he's paired early in the right system with the right leadership, I think there's true PG potential there on top of the aggressive scoring. I know I just mentioned Boston, but that *would* be a really good situation for him. Let him be the Rozier while he learns how to be a Kemba.

If that doesn't happen, then like I said, there's definitely a good chance he becomes another "good starter on a bad team/good bench player on a good team" kind of guy. In the teens of this draft, even a "Diet Coke Lou Williams" is pretty real value.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

This is going to be a weird one, because Nesmith fans will argue he's the best shooter (or, at worst, top 2) in the draft. And they're quick to mention he shot 52% from 3 last year on over 8 attempts a game... and, to be sure, that's nothing to sneeze at.

That said, last season he only played fourteen games... and only *one* was in conference! He played a grand total of *two* games against KenPom Tier A+B teams last year. Now, granted, he shot 11-18 from 3 in those games, lol. But over two seasons against Tier A+B teams, he averages closer to 36% from 3. Do you think he's that guy? Or do you think he's a surefire 42+% shooter next level, as he suggested he could be in a small/weak sample size this season?

Because if you want him to be a lotto pick-- and because wings are a huuuuuge need for most teams in the NBA, teams will want to think he's one-- you need to think he's the 42+% guy. Because everywhere else, he's fine, not great. He's got some potential off the bounce, not too shifty as a handler/driver but not a liability by any means, a good team defender but not really quick/athletic enough to handler bigger/quicker wings man-to-man... like, if you think he's a 36% shooter, then he's, like, a second rounder at best.

If he ends up in the right place, he could really thrive. Like, if New Orleans keeps JJ Redick around and he teaches up Nesmith? That's your 3-point wing shooter for the next decade. If you put him somewhere where he's thrown to the wolves? He could be playing overseas after his rookie deal ends. Just hard to say. I'd take him more in the 19-24 range based on the potential the stroke provides... but I realize he'll likely go late lottery.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Smart player, good shooter, multi-positional defender. Don't think he's a guy with any upside beyond "winning starter"-- the athleticism isn't there, and he's more of a good-at-everything, bad-at-nothing guy than a guy who can make a crazy jump in star quality. But I think people generally underrate players like this going for the home run swing instead. Which I get for certain teams... but if you think you can contend any time soon, I'd take this guy without any hesitation. I'd take him ahead of Nesmith... and maybe even Williams.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Like, yeah, Maxey struggled from 3 last year, and if he can't make 3s in the NBA, he's a bench guy at absolute best. That said, he's an 83% FT shooter, and the stroke looks good. Honestly reminds me again of Brad Beal and a lesson I learned the hard way, as he didn't shoot the 3 especially well in college, so I Cuban B'd all the other indicators that he could become a good NBA shooter. Maxey's indicators are there.

I don't think he's a PG, so there may be some teams expressing some concern about his ability to defend as a 6'3 SG in the NBA, but he's got good speed and decent wingspan, and the effort is there, so I don't think he'd be a net negative in that category. And he's just a tough, strong dude who wants the ball with the game on the line. You gotta like that.

I think worst case scenario, he's a sparkplug bench scorer guy. Best case scenario, you have your starting 2 guard of the future.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Like, yes, he'll be drafted pretty high on potential. He's probably the only guy in the draft who could *truly* defend 1-5 in theory-- guys like Okongwu and Okoro come close, but Achiuwa has that perfect combo of the right length, size, strength, athleticism, and motor. He's also a really good rim protector, which would give him real value in small ball lineups, and he's obviously got the tools to be a terrific rim runner.

But man, I've seen him a lot from HS on, and I just don't think he has *any* skill or IQ on the offensive side of the ball. He's a bad passer. He takes bad shots-- which sucks because he can't shoot. He constantly goes into traffic and just tries to bulldoze people, which, even with his size and athleticism, simply won't work enough in the NBA. He's the absolute prototype try-hard bamma, but he also has some dum-dum in him. Like, say what you will about Trez, but at least he knows he's not a pick-and-pop guy, and he knows he's not secretly a 3. Achiuwa gives me those vibes.

He's also just not consistent enough on defense-- I know that's nitpicking because he's so young... but Okoro and Okongwu are both young too, but they have high IQ on defense in addition to strength and ability, and even if neither of them can really shoot either, (a) the shots look better than Achiuwa's, and (b) they can handle, pass, and make the right play on offense way better.

Right system and right staff, the tools are there. I can't imagine him going later than 20... but I'd truthfully wait until the 25-30 range. He'll almost certainly stick because he's a try hard dude with an NBA body, but he's Just A Guy unless he has an uptick in skill or IQ.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Allstar

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

And it's oddly not close.

It's also going to be very funny when you come back and say, "he won't be better than this *one* random wack Terp from the last four decades!"

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Terrific basketball IQ, terrific pedigree. Better athleticism, strength, and speed than he gets credit for-- better than his brother in all of those regards, really. He improved significantly last year as a catch-and-shoot guy, and while he's never been especially good off the dribble, I doubt any team will ask him to do that.

If drafted in the 20s to a good team, he can be an off-the-bench PG from Day 1 to provide that energy-- or, if on the right team with shooters, could really set the table for teams with perimeter weapons. He's honestly best suited imo for the role he had as a freshman at Duke-- to go to an NBA team with a Big 3 where he can be the perfect role player to set them up and to help lock in their defense. There's real value in a guy that brings those things to the table.

But the upside is admittedly limited. He's not the put-the-team-on-his-back guy that he tried to be in the ACC as a sophomore imo-- not at the next level, anyhow. But that's okay. He's a high IQ enough player that he knows what his role will be and he'll play it to the fullest.

He'll be a more valuable winning player than some other lead guards who'll be drafted around the same range who are more interested in scoring than winning.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Questionable decision maker.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Same hype out of high school. Same reputation, same "this could be the #1 pick" talk. Same sort of disappointment in college, although Austin obviously had a better season than Cole did.

Same strengths and weaknesses too, really. Good at scoring (if not especially efficient). Crafty with the ball. Strong threat in transition. Not really a point guard, more of a score-first guy-- though I believe Cole should drop more dimes in the NBA than Austin, he's a little better there, even if the numbers don't reflect it. Both had reputations of being deadly shooters coming out of high school, buuuuuut both did not shoot very well in college, at least in part due to pretty dreadful shot selection. Again, I imagine Cole is a slightly better shooter than Austin, but Austin is a better finisher than Cole is, especially in the halfcourt.

Cole's relatively slight height, wingspan, and frame is also definitely going to be an issue on both ends-- the poor finishing in the halfcourt should likely continue, and he'll get picked on on defense. He wasn't an especially good defender at UNC anyway-- he's pretty good off-ball in the passing lanes and on weak side blocks, but outside of that, there's not much there. The NBA will just run switches to put Cole on the guy with the ball, and he could get abused.

So yeah, I don't see *that* level of upside with Cole. Maybe if you think he can become a point guard, or if you think he can shoot 40+% from 3, then sure, I guess he could start. But he screams "bench scorer/primary guard only if your primary guard is injured." Which, again, has kind of become Austin's role in the NBA. I'd take a flier in the 20s. The Knicks fans who think they should pick him at 8 are certifiable. He might not even be a Top 8 *guard* in this draft.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Solid in all areas on both sides of the ball. Improved 3 ball and free throw percentage. Will make any team better, solid pro for many years.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Liked the improvements I saw from him last year as a shooter. Do I buy it at the next level? Not sure, but anyone that size who can make 37% from 3 on nearly 3 attempts a game is probably worth a look on that alone. Also a good weak side shot blocker.

That said, he's reeeeeally stiff, and he's got a weak lower body. That's a really bad combo imo. Because there is a zero percent chance he can defend the perimeter and switch... but he's also gonna get abused by a lot of the bigger, stronger, more mobile bigs in the NBA.

So I think you bring him in with your second unit, especially if the other team's second unit big is pretty stiff. There, he could take advantage, especially in pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop action on offense. I think that's pretty good value at the very end of the first round. I think he's gonna go more like mid-first, which... I just don't see, unless you think you can drastically alter his mobility or drastically build his lower body strength.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Reminds me of Josh Jackson. So..

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

Any guy that's an athletic 6'9 with a 7 foot wingspan like him will probably go first round. He's a really good ballhandler for his size, he's a good catch-and-shoot guy so the stretch 4 potential is there, and the size and athleticism gives him some serious multi-positional defender potential. Like, it's easy to see why he was a Top 5 recruit coming out of HS.

But the basketball IQ suuuuuuucks. And he's absolutely rail thin, so the switchability isn't really a bonus with him, because there are probably a lot of 2 guards and wings that can realistically back him down into the post right now.

So yeah, he could honestly become a star in the right setting, if he builds muscle and gets more comfortable with the game... or he could be overseas in like 2-3 years. I think he's an obvious stash candidate for a team who can afford to do so, be that a good team with a strong developmental program at the end of the first... or a shitty team that knows they'll be tanking again next year at the top of the second. But I'd honestly rather let another team pick him.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide

Hard worker with grown man responsibilities. He’ll be a solid rotational guy on somebody’s team.

<---
Fuck a sig, my presence is enough.

My movies: http://russellhainline.com
My movie reviews: https://letterboxd.com/RussellHFilm/
My beer TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebeertravelguide