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Subject: "I'm watching for Willians - Twins 2019" Previous topic | Next topic
Walleye
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Wed Feb-20-19 12:49 PM

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"I'm watching for Willians - Twins 2019"


          

Weird year. Weird board. Weird old age (mine). So we're starting off with a weird Patrick Reusse column, and one where he makes me incredibly uncomfortable by writing the phrase "car crash caused by roadside bandits." Could be utterly true, but somehow seems kind of racist when Reusse says it.

In any case, I'm ready for Willians. I don't care if he doesn't have a position (Garver and Castro seem secure there) as long as he breaks camp with the team and I can go into every scheduled Twins game of 2019 expecting Willians Astudillo to come in and do something interesting. 5'8" 240 lbs. guy scoring from first on a double? Sure. Coming in to pitch? Sure. Picking off a runner from first with a no-look throw? Yes, please.

The one thing we know we won't see when Astudillo plays is a lot of strikeouts. Seeing a genuinely weird skillset seems increasingly odd in a game that stops and starts so frequently that it's rather simple for smart coaches and managers to carefully control for the most likely outcome hasn't exactly made the game boring, but it has made it much less weird. In a game that's embracing a three true outcomes approach even on the defensive end with shifts that assume batters really only put well-struck balls into play in small parts of the field, having a guy who literally had the same number of homeruns (three) as strikeouts (also three) in his 97 MLB plate appearances is truly odd. He's actually had a shockingly strong track record for contact since his minor league days (Phillies and Braves system) but the power is relatively recent. It's not a ton of power, obviously. But it is:

a)way more useful when it comes to considering him a real contributor to a winning MLB roster
b)even stranger than a slappy spray hitter who doesn't strike out much

He swings, incredibly often, and makes hard contact incredibly often. That's extremely rare in 2019, and combined with his Bartolo-esque frame and willingness to play just about anywhere makes a player who is actually... fun.

Which is important because 2018 wasn't very fun. I'm good with bad teams, but the thing that always loses me is the sense of redundancy in certain types of losses. Starter gets whaled and is relieved before five innings. Relief holds on for two or three of those before the wheels come off. Lacking any true power bat, offense struggles to capitalize on nascent rallies. Twins lose, 7-2.

The team needs a Buxton and Sano breakthrough more than it needs Willians Astudillo to get 300 plate appearances. But I need both of those things, and my interest in talking about this team pretty much depends on both of them occurring. So here we go. This is the 2019 Twins post. Have opinions.

http://www.startribune.com/willians-astudillo-had-fame-flamboyance-in-venezuelan-league/506034802/

Willians Astudillo had fame, flamboyance in Venezuelan League
By Patrick Reusse FEBRUARY 19, 2019 — 8:27AM

The Venezuelan Professional Baseball League dates to 1946 and the eight-team league survived another season this winter, despite runaway inflation and oppressive poverty that has strapped all of the teams financially.

The schedule is drawn up as a 63-game round robin, with the eight teams playing one another nine times. There were several cancellations for reasons other than weather, including three days of mourning in early December after Lara players Luis Valbuena and Jose Castillo were killed in a car crash caused by roadside bandits.

The regular season started on Oct. 12 and wound up on Dec. 30, with Magallanes in first place at 33-25 and Caribes in sixth place at 27-29. Magallanes had the league’s MVP in Delmon Young, who hit 17 home runs, and Caribes had the MVP runner-up in the Twins’ Willians Astudillo.

Six teams make the playoffs and Magallanes and Caribes played in the first round. The series was tied at two wins apiece, and Game 5 was tied at 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth.

Astudillo came up to face Magallanes’ Deolis Guerra. You remember Deolis as one of the pitchers that was supposed to make Twins’ fans eventually feel better about the Johan Santana trade to the New York Mets on Feb. 2, 2008.

It didn’t work out that way, as Guerra left the Twins as a minor-league free agent six years later without having pitched a game for Minnesota. He saw brief big-league action elsewhere.

If you are among the Twins loyalists to have become a student of Astudillo’s adventures, you have seen what happened next:

Astudillo took a hack and hit a high drive that was sailing near the left field line. He could have pulled a Carlton Fisk and started waving “stay fair,’’ but instead Wondrous Willians was slightly off-balance, so he just went down to one knee, rested his right arm on top of a bat stuck in the ground, and waited a couple of seconds.

It was a fair and a home run. Astudillo went nuts as he started to circle the bases. His teammates joined in the hysteria, as did the home crowd in Puerto la Cruz, in a stadium named after a great White Sox shortstop, Chico Carrasquel.

Another great Venezuelan and White Sox shortstop, Ozzie Guillen, nicknamed the 2006 Twins the ‘’little piranhas,’’ and he might have gotten the idea from familiarity with Caribes – Spanish for that type of feisty fish – in his country’s winter league.

Caribes was able to protect that lead in the ninth, and then two nights later, it held a 7-4 lead going into the ninth at Magallanes’ stadium in Valencia. Stu Cliburn, the pitching coach for the Twins’ Class AAA Rochester team, also had that job for Magallanes and had a suspicion what might happen when Astudillo came to bat in that half-inning.

“Willians had a couple of hits and had driven in two runs,’’ Cliburn said. “Plus, there were some players who weren’t happy about the way he watched the home run, and then the celebration, in the previous game.

“Pedro Rodriguez was our pitcher – a good reliever for us, but he wa steamed. And he stuck a fastball in Willians’ ribs.’’

Allegedly, there was also a fastball thrown at Astudillo’s head. Asked about it when he arrived in Twins’ camp late last week, Astudillo nodded “yes,’’ and made the motion of a pitch going past his head.

“I don’t think so,'' Cliburn said. “Rodriguez just hit him in the side and Willians went to first base.’’

Caribes won the game and the series to advance to the second round. But wait – with only three winners, another team was required for the semifinals, so Magallanes hosted a wild-card game vs. Aragua, another series loser. Magallanes won and also advanced to the second round.

Magallanes then lost to Lara and Caribes lost to Caracas. Astudillo was drafted by Lara and that team – the one that had lost Valbuena and Castillo in the December tragedy – won the Venezuelan championship.

Cliburn was asked for a scouting report on our old friend Delmon Young, now 33, after watching him for three months.

“He was strictly a DH, but he was driving the ball,’’ Cliburn said. “There are a lot of scouts there from Korea and Japan. I think he was hoping to get a job over there. Korea’s his best chance, I’d guess.’’

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
Here's some people on a roster
Feb 22nd 2019
1
I didn't realize how much Gordon struggled in the minors until
Feb 22nd 2019
2
      Does Marwin Gonzalez at 2/21mm do anything for you?
Feb 22nd 2019
3
           Just saw the Marwin news
Feb 22nd 2019
4
                There's at least 10 WAR just waiting for a job
Feb 22nd 2019
5
Is Byron Buxton using up all of his hits?
Feb 26th 2019
6
Certainly feels like it!
Mar 03rd 2019
9
Remember how good Michael Pineda was?
Mar 02nd 2019
7
I do.
Mar 31st 2019
12
Willians might be my favorite player since Ichiro & Eckstein!
Mar 03rd 2019
8
It's a roundup! (Sano, Astudillo, Reed/Harper, Perez)
Mar 16th 2019
10
Are the Twins good?
Mar 31st 2019
11
Buxton's triple last night
Apr 11th 2019
13
At the very least, it seems like his best start to a season
Apr 11th 2019
14
      And it's not like a "holy shit, he's hot" kind of start
Apr 11th 2019
15
No Willians, no problem (still, slightly less fun)
May 09th 2019
16
I'm incredibly uncomfortable with this
May 24th 2019
17
It can't possibly be sustainable
May 24th 2019
18
      Just a genuine garbage division
May 24th 2019
19
White Sox outfield defense was embarassing
May 27th 2019
20
Donaldson, interesting signing
Jan 14th 2020
21

Walleye
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Fri Feb-22-19 08:22 AM

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1. "Here's some people on a roster"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Some of them are pitchers:

17 Jose Berrios R/R
21 Tyler Duffey R/R
44 Kyle Gibson R/R
59 Stephen Gonsalves L/L
39 Trevor Hildenberger R/R
52 Zack Littell R/R
68 Matt Magill R/R
65 Trevor May R/R
49 Adalberto Mejia L/L
58 Gabriel Moya L/L
12 Jake Odorizzi R/R
38 Blake Parker R/R
33 Martin Perez L/L
35 Michael Pineda R/R
43 Addison Reed L/R
55 Taylor Rogers L/L
77 Fernando Romero R/R
53 Kohl Stewart R/R
71 Lewis Thorpe R/L
62 Andrew Vasquez L/L

What a weird bunch. There are twenty names there, and though I'd love for them to finally start carrying fewer pitchers, it seems like it's more likely that MLB will expand roster size before teams reverse the staff creep on their own. So, we've got to get to thirteen guys from there, and maybe it's best to eliminate some of them first?

Thorpe and Littell seem like future rotation candiates so if they're probably not breaking camp unless they make the rotation. Thorpe definitely won't and Littell probably won't. Though that math changes if he's out of options, which I can't seem to find out. Ditto Mejia, but if our exercise here is to cut down then let's assume both of them have MiLB options and will be sent down eventually. Mejia is more likely to help out of the pen, but there's a weird depth of actual LHP relievers who are pretty good on the roster already with Rogers and Moya and Vazquez knocking on the door. So minus Thorpe, Littell, and Mejia makes seventeen.

Magill and Hildenberger are purely RH relievers for this team and I think they'll have to prove it, so let's assume they... won't? I like Hildenberger but Tom Hackimer is moving up in the MiLB system and is basically a better version of him. So now we're down to fifteen.

The points of flexibility here are some guys who are competing for rotation depth and/or coming off of injury and therefore may be stashable in Rochester for a bit. I used to love Martin Perez and I like the signing as a scratch-off but I don't think he's got it any more. Fourteen. We get down to thirteen by dropping one of Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, or Tyler Duffey. All three of them could help the bullpen, as Romero could be a late-inning reliever right now; Duffey's had sustained moments of success in both relief and the rotation; and Stewart actually looked like a first-rounder for the only time in his career last year. I suspect it will come down to whoever has options and/or they can dream on becoming a starter. Or if they just decide they've seen the best of Tyler Duffey. I'll bet that's the case. So now we're at thirteen.

Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi are rotation locks, I suppose. Healthy Pineda is in, so that's four. No lefties in there and nobody thinks he's gonna be a reliever, so let's say that this is Gonsalves' year. That makes:

Rotation:
Berrios
Gibson
Pineda
Odorizzi
Gonsalves

Pen:
Romero
Vazquez
Rogers
Stewart
May
Moya
Parker
Reed

That's kind of "eh" all the way through. It's one of those staffs where you look at it and say, "that could be okay if everything breaks right" which sounds reasonable but if we're going to cross our fingers I'd really rather have "great" than "okay". Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are sitting at home waiting for a team right now, and outside of Berrios, I'd probably kick anybody off of this staff for them.

Here are catchers:

64 Willians Astudillo R/R
15 Jason Castro L/R
18 Mitch Garver R/R

Castro and Garver are the safe and most likely choices here. They've both been above-average hitters and capable-to-good defenders, and they even complement each other with the R/L bat pairing. Still, this thread is entirely in the tank for Astudillo so I'm not giving in on the second overall post. He's making the roster. If you're not as thoroughly smitten about him as I am, look at what he plays during spring training. If they keep making an effort to move him around the diamond like they did in-season last year, that's our cue that they're trying to find roster space for him. There was a rumor this morning about the FO talking to Marwin Gonzalez, who I actually rather like, but it seems like he's looking for a deal based on 2017 Marwin Gonzalez and not...literally every other year Marwin Gonzalez. I would take any other year Marwin Gonzalez, but not at 2017 (when he went .303/.377/.530) prices, particularly if it bumps our man Willians Astudillo. Now, if the Twins actually think he can play shortstop as a capable backup, then maybe the coinflip is over Gonzalez or Adrianza - and I'm on the fence about that. I love Adrianza's glove but he's... not gonna hit and I doubt his glove is going to get better as he approaches 30. So if Gonzalez can stand in at short without harming the infield defense badly, and Nick Gordon is a phone call away at Rochester if Polanco gets hurt, then I'm willing to say "welcome" to Marwin. (Sorry) But we're not doing the "who breaks camp?" thing with guys who aren't even under contract yet, so that's math for another day.

With the roster at sixteen, here are some infielders:

13 Ehire Adrianza S/R
2 Luis Arraez
31 Tyler Austin R/R
24 C.J. Cron R/R
1 Nick Gordon L/R
11 Jorge Polanco S/R
22 Miguel Sano R/R
16 Jonathan Schoop R/R
19 Ronald Torreyes R/R

This one is easier, though CJ Cron and his dumb, position-less bat is lurking in there making shit difficult. Scratch Arraez, Gordon, and Torreyes and there are six guys here. Polanco, Sano, Schoop are locks. Unless Sano is still hurt, but they're not going to account for that with a longterm roster move so assume he's in either way. Adrianza is a lock because they want a backup SS. That leaves Cron and Austin. I .... kind of can't believe they intend to break camp with Sano, Cron, Nelson Cruz, and Austin because they're basically four identical players except for varying upsides and Sano's ability to play third.

I feel like it's meaningful that CJ Cron had a career year last year and nobody but the Twins wanted him. This is the part of me where my awareness of how runs are scored and teams win has gotten old and tired, but it's really hard to break out of stuff that you *know* but we're all ultimately bound by time. I just don't understand the point of a right-handed, first-base-only power hitter who doesn't draw walks. And maybe they know something, like that Cron's power will play up in RH-friendly park like Target Field, but I'm stuck in 2007 and in 2007 he'd be entertaining a different line of work. So since this is my post - fuck CJ Cron. He's out. That gives up Sano, Austin, Schoop, Adrianza, Polanco.

Here are some outfielders (and a DH) to fit into our unwieldy 21-person roster:

5 Byron Buxton R/R
60 Jake Cave L/L
8 Zack Granite L/L
26 Max Kepler L/L
30 Michael Reed R/R
20 Eddie Rosario L/R
73 LaMonte Wade L/L
23 Nelson Cruz R/R

I mean, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, and Cruz. Done. That's twenty five, but it's a really unsatisfying twenty-five. If they keep Adrianza *and* Astudillo, it will be justified by the fact that they've given both of those guys outfield time but really who wants to watch either of them play outfield, except in the "holy shit, Willians Astudillo is playing outfield!" sense. Marwin Gonzalez would work here because he jettisons Adrianza and provides insurance in case Schoop is done, which is possible. I hope none of Cave, Granite, Reed, or Wade is out of options because they'd all be really nice bench options to have. Oh well.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Marauder21
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Fri Feb-22-19 01:32 PM

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2. "I didn't realize how much Gordon struggled in the minors until "
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

I looked it up just now. Yeesh.

AL Central could still be potentially up for grabs, though. Would've been nice to come away with something besides Nelson Cruz in the offseason, but the Pohlads really wanted that ivory backscratcher.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

  

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Walleye
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Fri Feb-22-19 02:53 PM

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3. "Does Marwin Gonzalez at 2/21mm do anything for you?"
In response to Reply # 2


          

I could barely complete that ridiculous question. I mean, if he bumps Adrianza that's actually a really nice bench upgrade. But that doesn't move the needle by more than 1-2 wins this year.

I know Manny Machado wanted to play shortstop, but this team has like zero big dollar commitments beyond this year and, with the liminality of Sano/Buxton's careers right now - nobody they're really looking at right now like "it's gonna cost us to keep that guy."

Throw an extra few million to convince Machado (who seemed pretty clearly intent on getting as much money as possible) to play third and you're looking at:

Polanco, SS
Kepler, RF
Machado, 3B
Sano, 1B
Rosario, LF
Cruz
Schoop, 2B
Garver/Castro, C
Buxton, CF

... which feels like something to get excited about. And I know the Twins aren't usually deep sea fishers when it comes to guys like Machado but this FA season was obviously incredibly weird in having two MVP-caliber talents who are freely available for only money and are entering rather than exiting their prime.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Marauder21
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Fri Feb-22-19 04:55 PM

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4. "Just saw the Marwin news"
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

It's certainly something!

85 wins or bust.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

  

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Walleye
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Fri Feb-22-19 05:14 PM

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5. "There's at least 10 WAR just waiting for a job"
In response to Reply # 4


          

It's weird because this is a totally normal Twins off-season occurring during a totally abnormal MLB off-season. But with Keuchel and Kimbrel and Harper available for only money and the team running one of the lowest payrolls it's had in years, this is the perfect time to wonder how attached we should be to... jesus, did I just pencil in Stephen Gonslves as our #5? Harper would be the most expensive and because I'm sentimental this seems like the appropriate time to just declare that I really like our outfield and though I'd probably ditch any one for a literal, crystal ball *guarantee* of a World Series title, nobody's actually offering that.

But Kimbrel and Keuchel are huge upgrades over players I don't even care about and would make this a 90+ win team.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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Tue Feb-26-19 01:14 PM

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6. "Is Byron Buxton using up all of his hits?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

My understanding, based on the principle that a Twins team (this theory is Twins-specific) which scores more than ten runs in a series opener will inevitably lose that series,* is that offense is a finite resource, which must be doled out with even precision in order to maximize the value of each run. This is also why we bunt.

In the sense that it's nice to see him play baseball well, Buxton rolling out five hit days and smashing the ball all over Fort Myers is good to see. In the sense that he is literally draining his offensive essence in order to win Grapefruit League games, I am unhappy. Less hitting until April, Byron Buxton.

*I would discourage fact-checking this

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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isaaaa
Member since May 10th 2007
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Sun Mar-03-19 10:36 PM

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9. "Certainly feels like it!"
In response to Reply # 6


          

>My understanding, based on the principle that a Twins team
>(this theory is Twins-specific) which scores more than ten
>runs in a series opener will inevitably lose that series,* is
>that offense is a finite resource, which must be doled out
>with even precision in order to maximize the value of each
>run. This is also why we bunt.

>*I would discourage fact-checking this

I might still do it later.


Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

  

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Walleye
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Sat Mar-02-19 07:26 AM

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7. "Remember how good Michael Pineda was?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

One of the first half-dozen or so starts of his career was against the Twins, if I recall. I had to go back to Chicago to meet with my dissertation advisor and whilst killing time in a hotel room with MLB.com, I watched him carve up the (utterly terrible) 2011 Twins and feeling that sense of despair when an AL rival finds a young talent that's going to kick Minnesota in the shins over and over and over and over again. It was a pretty overstated feeling then, as Twins would probably face him once or twice a year in Seattle but it felt like a big deal. And it definitely feels overstated now, as he got traded to New York in a hilariously weird prospect-for-prospect challenge swap where they both basically flopped.

Eight years later, he's a Twin and I get these very occasional flashes of enthusiasm that I'd absolutely and relentlessly mock if a fan of some other team generated it over some other obviously faded talent.

But since the upside of 2019's rotation incumbents is "deeply boring but potentially sort of effective" and since hardly anybody is reading this anyhow, maybe it's okay about penciling in a guy who is:

a)still only 30
b)throws like an actual power pitcher, hard everything
c)averaged more than a strikeout per inning even in bad years
d)seems to have been victimized by some "eh" defense as a Yankee

I'd have to be an idiot to expect more than 150 innings and the Twins would have to be even bigger idiots to pretend that whatever good occurs in 2019 means he should be brought back on some sort of longterm engagement. But I'm starting to believe this could actually be sort of fun.

Also fun: reading Baldelli's credulous wonderment yesterday regarding the spin on Pineda's slider after he was busted in 2014 for cheating with pine tar. Like, there's at least one obvious answer Rocco.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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will_5198
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Sun Mar-31-19 09:27 PM

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12. "I do."
In response to Reply # 7


          

thinking back then, that him (22 years old) and King Felix (25 years old) would be dominating lineups together for the rest of the decade.

baseball is weird.

--------

  

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isaaaa
Member since May 10th 2007
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8. "Willians might be my favorite player since Ichiro & Eckstein!"
In response to Reply # 0


          


Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

  

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Walleye
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Sat Mar-16-19 08:28 AM

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10. "It's a roundup! (Sano, Astudillo, Reed/Harper, Perez)"
In response to Reply # 0


          

1. Sano out until May(ish) - Blargh. So he... slipped on some stairs celebrating a DWL win and cut his leg and it keeps re-opening and also got infected? This is obviously bad news, but it does make it more likely that Willians will break camp with the team since Marwin Gonzalez is likely to take over at third. The bummer about Sano's career to this point is that there's a non-zero chance the Twins are better for this - but that depends on Cron/Austin outhitting Sano, which is plausible but actually the good kind of problem. More good players is good news. Anyhow, this awesome article pulled the most Twins-fan move ever and pointed out that Mauer didn't join the 25-man roster of the 2009 Twins until May and he won an MVP so eat it, nerds:

https://www.mlb.com/news/miguel-sano-returns-to-camp-to-start-rehab

2. Speaking of Willians, he played leftfield (resulting in a picture I embarassingly misidentified on my phone as Bartolo Colon) and hit a homerun yesterday. I think Astudillo showing up regularly in corner outfield duty during spring break is a sign he's the current pick over Adrianza for that 25th man slot. Adrianza didn't help his case by getting picked off in a hidden ball trick the other day. And Tyler Austin has been hitting well enough that he may be an offense-first play for a bench role. I still think Austin's better than Cron but I recognize I may be biased by my utter distaste for Cron's game. Here's video of Astudillo's homer:

https://www.mlb.com/video/astudillo-s-solo-smash-c2523659183

3. Addison Reed has apparently looked like utter garbage, topping out in the low 90s and working in the 80s. I still remember the days of Joe Nathan freaking everybody out by throwing like a highschooler in spring training, so maybe it's not a big deal - but Reed wasn't real good last year and Addison Reed who doesn't throw hard is...not helpful. I'm sure Reed makes the team since they're paying him real money and it's easy to kick the bullpen can down the road in April, but if you want to dream big then Ryne Harper's curveball has apparently been the talk of camp so far this spring. He's a 30 year old righty who hasn't ever played at the MLB level, but he struck out over 11/per last season in Chattanooga and Rochester. Sometimes when you've got a veteran who carves up minor leaguers you can just call it a Crash Davis situation and say he's getting by on savvy and grit and possibly cheating. But there's video of his deeply disrespectful curveball(s) in the article and things get a little bit realer when you can go "oh, that seems really difficult to hit"

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/ryne-harper-looks-sharp-for-twins-this-spring

4. I was skeptical about the Martin Perez signing at first, almost *because* he's a player I used to admire and covet and having one of those guys wind up on your team when he's old and shitty is often a weird and terrible feeling as a fan. Or as a GM, as Ken Williams using the mid-00's to pick up the stars of the mid-90s and roster them in Chicago demonstrated. I wish I had been more vocal about how fun he was back in the day, because then I could congratulate myself now for making Johan Santana comps then because... that's exactly what observers are saying about him now. It's pretty much an aesthetic observation, as he never had Santana's changeup and that's like saying he's Mike Trout without the power - a real talent, but not a HOLY SHIT one. He's a lefty with a pretty similar delivery - and in his prime had a really nice slider. Now, he's pinging 96-97 again, and has apparently been working with Santana to find that extra few ticks. That article was in the PiPress, which has gone subscription so here's a dumb CBS article about how he hasn't sucked. It's like two paragraphs. Don't read it:

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-martin-perez-continues-strong-spring/



______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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Sun Mar-31-19 05:39 PM

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11. "Are the Twins good?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

It's too early to make predictions, and they're going to spend a bunch of time this summer regretting what appears to be a thin middle infield situation and trying to tread water through the inevitable slumps in a low-contact offense. Plus the bullpen. So when I ask "are the Twins good?" I mean that in the fully qualitative sense where we can watch them play baseball and enjoy the hell out of it because they're fun and can score and prevent runs successfully.

Through three games we've got a weirdly un-Minnesotan strikeout rate from our starters (including Martin Perez, who wasn't great tonight but looked looked really good until he didn't) and today's offensive breakout in the cold. Buxton's been hitting. The right-handed power has been there. It's also not one of those starts where everybody's clicking and you have to shrug "well, they can't all be great all the time" because Kepler and Rosario have been awful. Schoop's defense at second makes me put on my pretend scout hat and cringe.

But it's been fun, right? Also, nice start today for WILLIANS!!!

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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13. "Buxton's triple last night"
In response to Reply # 0


          

The game itself was a kind of surprising flop. Odorizzi seems more and more like the poster boy for the "three times through the order is too many" phenomenon, though I'm not sure he even got that far. But Buxton taking a 97pm 1-2 fastball from Syndergaard off the outside corner *hard* against the right-centerfield wall was the sort of thing we haven't really seen from him outside his outburst in September 2017. Just really, really nice hitting.

So maybe he's good now? I'd really enjoy that. I don't know what to expect out of this team, but the more fun players the better. Wins are ideal, but I'm watching one way or the other so I'll take "ooooo, you don't see that very often."

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Marauder21
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Thu Apr-11-19 10:12 AM

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14. "At the very least, it seems like his best start to a season"
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

As opposed to the "barely gets on base for a month and a half before gradually becoming the MVP of the lineup" from 2017.

------

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Walleye
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15. "And it's not like a "holy shit, he's hot" kind of start"
In response to Reply # 14


          

Contact rate is improved, but not an unsustainable, Astudillian rate. Doubles and triples power will always be there as long as he can put the ball in play since he's so fast. He's still not walking enough. In short, this is a version of Byron Buxton which is:

a)plausibly sustainable
b)has room for growth
c)is, right today, extremely valuable

Also, I want to just get this out right now in case Astudillo somehow bats .350 all season while rotating "pretty good" defense (it's too early to understand that's the case statistically, but he's looked solid everywhere) all over the field, including regular stints at catcher, then we need to figure out a way to make a "WAR doesn't understand Astudillo" MVP case for him. I mean, ignoring that Mike Trout exists.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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Thu May-09-19 06:22 AM

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16. "No Willians, no problem (still, slightly less fun)"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I guess the Twins don't have the best record in baseball right now, but they're a couple of raw games played behind the Rays and the Dodgers for the honor. They've done a good job beating up on some bad teams though, notably - going on the road to beat up on bad AL East teams feels a bit different than the mid-00's heyday of slapping around the Royals until we dinged 90 wins.

I've never really had to apply my "is this team for real?" radar so early in the season for the Twins, which in itself has guaranteed the realness of past decent teams because the question is more likely a "yes" if you have to ask it in July than in early May. But goddamn are they fun. I guess the stuff that's unlikely to be real long term are:

-the three-headed catching unit collectively outhitting vintage Joe Mauer
-Jorge Polanco posting Mike Trout WAR numbers
-Berrios/Odorizzi/Perez all pitching like CY contenders
-bullpen full of randos locking teams down

But the three catcher thing seems sound to me, even if they all decline substantially. Polanco is young and has shown sustained bouts of excellence before, so he may not be 8 win good, but "occasional All-Star" doesn't seem out of hand does it?

I don't want to say any words about the pitching staff. That actually seems sort of delicate because outside of Berrios, I don't actually like any of those guys that much. So we'll avert our eyes and just hope that sticks.

In any case, there's also room for improvement. Marwin Gonzalez has only recently started to hit like a functional starter. Miguel Sano will be back soon enough. Eddie Rosario has really only been hot when it comes to hitting the ball over the wall - he may have actually been kind of ball-in-play unlucky so far. Cron can be better (or be seated more often in favor of Miguel Sano). Adrianza has been worked into the lineup pretty regularly since Astudillo went down and he... isn't good.

I got nothing summing this up. It's been fun to watch them, both the long, effective starts from pitchers I've never seen do that regularly (Gibson and Odorizzi) and the lineup just grind starting pitchers into dust with 1-9 decent at bats and homeruns in bunches. I, uh, hope that continues.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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Fri May-24-19 09:11 AM

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17. "I'm incredibly uncomfortable with this"
In response to Reply # 0


          

The only hitter who isn't performing well above league average is Marwin Gonzalez, but he's been perfectly fine after a rough start. And in the meantime, Sano has returned and Arraez has looked like Astudillo with walks so it's not like they don't have options. And though it's almost certainly true that teams will be more successful adjusting to them, there's a kind of stunning diversity to the stuff this offense is doing well. To take the just-mentioned examples, Arraez and Sano are like, literal opposites as hitters. Sano has returned and fully sold out for power, taking utterly garbage at bats - except that the stuff he hits is hit incredibly hard. Like some sort of shitty Gary Sheffield. Meanwhile, Arraez is poking liners all over the field like he's... this is where I wish I knew a deadball era player named "Gary" because that would be funny.

Garver out? Fine, Castro will just put up a 151 OPS+. Pineda is the only guy getting regular work who is underwhelming, and he's coming back from TJ and has, at times, looked like his old self.

So how do I stop being excited about this, because I don't really want to be just yet? Best answer that I can come up with at the moment is that the good team that it most reminds me of is the 2005 White Sox. Defense, pitching, lots and lots of early scoring via homeruns.

They won the world series so this isn't going to do the trick, but I was living there at the time and it's probably my least favorite baseball team in history. So since I can't really find good reasons to deflate my hope (I'm sure they'll come through eventually) at least I can say they remind me of a team I hate.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Marauder21
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Fri May-24-19 01:41 PM

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18. "It can't possibly be sustainable"
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

Is what I'm telling myself. though even still, the AL Central is so weak it might not matter.

------

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Walleye
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19. "Just a genuine garbage division"
In response to Reply # 18


          

If this were 2006 and we still played each of those teams like thirty times, I might feel good about being confident.

I know it's unsustainable, but they're winning so often and by so much that it's getting increasingly difficult to see:

a)what will go wrong
b)how it will severely damage their playoff hopes

I mean, the answer to number one is that everybody starts playing several degrees worse. I like Jorge Polanco as a player but I don't think he's as good as Mike Trout. Cron, Schoop, Gonzalez, Cruz, Pineda, and Perez were all pretty cheaply available to the rest of the league, who collectively passed.

The answer to number two is that maybe they will make the playoffs (maybe - banked wins, you know) but if they hold this up for another month or two then we're looking at a different question about end-of-season results. And in that case, I'm pretty comfortable saying Houston is definitely better. New York and Boston are good and have the resources to get better more abruptly than Minnesota does. And the Rays are having the same fun and weird season with just a couple fewer wins.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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Walleye
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Mon May-27-19 07:19 AM

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20. "White Sox outfield defense was embarassing"
In response to Reply # 0


          

That kind of bummed me out. Not the sweep, I mean. That was super fun.

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"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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isaaaa
Member since May 10th 2007
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Tue Jan-14-20 08:27 PM

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21. "Donaldson, interesting signing"
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Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg

¨Your mother is Colin Powell¨ - Lurkmode

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