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Realistic one-seed contenders:
Team A: 9 Q1 wins, 14 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 0 Q3 losses. 2 total losses. NCSOS: 51. Team B: 8 Q1 wins, 15 Q1/Q2 wins. 0 Q2 losses, 1 Q3 loss. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 41. Team C: 6 Q1 wins, 14 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 0 Q3 losses. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 42. Team D: 10 Q1 wins, 18 Q1/Q2 wins. 3 Q2 losses, 1 Q3 loss. 7 total losses. NCSOS: 23. Team E: 6 Q1 wins, 13 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 6 total losses. NCSOS: 19.
I think Teams A through C feel pretty safe. Teams D and E will each have 2-3 Q1 games left-- Team D has the obvious inside track imo unless they lose early and Team E makes a deep run.
Realistic two-seed contenders:
Team E: 6 Q1 wins, 13 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 6 total losses. NCSOS: 19. Team F: 6 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 5 total losses. NCSOS: 89. Team G: 7 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 6 total losses. NCSOS: 68. Team H: 10 Q1 wins, 13 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 1 Q3 loss. 9 total losses. NCSOS: 9. Team I: 5 Q1 wins, 13 Q1/Q2 wins. 0 Q2 or Q3 losses. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 156. Team J: 3 Q1 wins, 8 Q1/Q2 wins. 0 Q2 or Q3 losses. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 249. Team E is a lock even with an early loss imo. G feels like they have an inside track. H is a very interesting case, but I like their odds unless they drop a game early in their conference tournament. F is an interesting case, but I obviously like their odds above Teams I or J. Team I has games left to play and the far superior NCSOS, so I definitely like them above J. Lots of room for movement here (save for E and G, who I feel are both fairly safe).
Realistic three-seed and four-seed contenders: Team F: 6 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 5 total losses. NCSOS: 89. Team G: 7 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 6 total losses. NCSOS: 68. Team H: 10 Q1 wins, 13 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 1 Q3 loss. 9 total losses. NCSOS: 9. Team I: 5 Q1 wins, 13 Q1/Q2 wins. 0 Q2 or Q3 losses. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 156. Team J: 3 Q1 wins, 8 Q1/Q2 wins. 0 Q2 or Q3 losses. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 249. Team K: 5 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 0 Q3 losses. 7 total losses. NCSOS: 29. Team L: 4 Q1 wins, 14 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 1 Q3 loss. 5 total losses. NCSOS: 73. Team M: 5 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 8 total losses. NCSOS: 258. Team N: 7 Q1 wins, 14 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 1 Q3 loss. 9 total losses. NCSOS: 271. Team O: 6 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 1 Q3 loss. 7 total losses. NCSOS: 282. Team P: 4 Q1 wins, 10 Q1/Q2 wins. 1 Q2 loss, 0 Q3 losses. 8 total losses. NCSOS: 62. Team Q: 3 Q1 wins, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. 3 Q2 losses, 1 Q3 loss. 7 total losses. NCSOS: 94. Team R: 5 Q1 wins, 8 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 4 total losses. NCSOS: 121. Team S: 3 Q1 wins, 12 Q1/Q2 wins. 2 Q2 losses, 0 Q3 losses. 10 total losses. NCSOS: 6.
A lot of interesting shit here. Let's assume F, G, and H got two seeds, because why not.
My picks for three seeds, blind:
Team I. Second most Q1/Q2 wins, tied for least losses, zero bad losses. NCSOS isn't great, but isn't sub-200.
Team K. That NCSOS is sexy-- best of the teams left who lost < 7. Only 1 sub-Q1 loss, best of any team left that isn't Team J.
Team L: The losses could hold them back, but only five total, and the most Q1/Q2 wins of teams left (and if you saw this team's conference slate, you'd be *really* impressed by this fact). Decent NCSOS always helps, and there are also some injury considerations with this team, which helps with seeding. I think Teams J, N, O, and R have the most interesting arguments for the fourth, as they presently stand. J and O are done, and I'd give O the inside track over J by a nose. M and N have ripe opportunities left (and M has injury considerations themselves), R... doesn't as much but could still get the Q1/Q2 win total to double digits.
I'd say O right today for the fourth, but I'd be most optimistic for M's chances by next weekend. The RPI seems to favor Team P over all of these teams-- second most Q1 wins, one of the better NCSOS rankings left, only one sub-Q1 loss, some injury considerations, and some very ripe opportunities heading forward-- but I haven't loved how Team P has closed the season, so I'm not as optimistic. If you ask me for Bracketology RIGHT TODAY:
East: 1: B 2: E 3: L 4: M
South: 1: A 2: G 3: K 4: N
Midwest: 1: C 2: F 3: I 4: J
West: 1: D 2: H 3: O 4: P
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