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QB - tony romo ($19)
RB - matt 40 ($46)
RB - dig doug martin ($19)
RB - charles sims ($4)
RB - matt jones ($3)
RB - khiry robinson ($1)
RB - boom herron ($1)
RB - branden oliver ($1)
WR - desean "auction" jackson (K)
WR - adriel jeremiah "ayay" green ($48)
WR - randall "nickname" cobb ($42)
WR - eric decker ($8)
WR - larry fitzgerald ($3)
WR - ty montgomery ($1)
TE - greg olsen (K)
K - dan bailey ($1)
DEF - TBD
THE GOOD:
this is easily the most balanced team in the league. it also happens to be better than the team i drafted last year. my floor is already crazy high, and i only need two or three things to go right to reach HKTB status. hot knife through butter. in this analogy, you're the butter, guys. keep up.
one of those things could be tony romo making... "the leap." his passer rating last year was already tops in the league, one point higher than rodgers and 10 points higher than the next highest QB. but what really illustrates his insane efficiency is that he came within 35 fantasy points of drew brees on-- wait for it-- 224(!!) fewer pass attempts. in fact, the cowboys-- riding the hot hand of demarco murray into the ground-- attempted the 2nd fewest pass attempts of all 32 NFL teams. yet romo was easily a top 10 fantasy QB.
imagine with me, if you will, a scenario where the cowboys-- now with no demarco murray to ride-- *don't* attempt the 2nd fewest pass attempts in the league. perhaps they're just average. with an average number of pass attempts and last year's efficiency (or even 2013's), romo would score 400 fantasy points, a total that would've made him a top 3 QB last year. or imagine with me another scenario where perhaps the fact that the cowboys just lost their best cornerback, orlando scandrick, to a season-ending injury turns what was a mediocre defense into a bad one. shootouts ensue. the cowboys now are forced to throw for the 5th most passing attempts in the league. suddenly, romo is the top fantasy QB, the knife gets hotter, and the butter parts much more easily. and i got him for less than a jackson. that's what you should have done.
other reasonable HKTB scenarios include:
- cobb getting jordy's targets, thus making him easily a top-5 WR. rodgers has been known to lean heavily on his vets (please see: any season where donald driver or james jones put up numbers they had no business reaching at ages they had no business living to) and cobb is the last vet standing, so if the newbies stumble at all, he could hit antonio brown status.
- dig doug doing literally anything. after being the #2 overall fantasy RB his rookie year, he stumbled in his sophomore and junior years. here's the thing though, guys. he's only 26 years old, he's coming off the best preseason he's ever had, and suddenly tampa bay has some weapons to draw defenses off the line. no one's saying he's gonna get back to his rookie year, but that ceiling of a top-5 finish does in fact exist. not in theory but in actual fact. if he does anything this year... literally anything... oh, boy.
- ayay has been a lock for about 100 recs, 1,300 yards, and double digit TDs pretty much his whole career-- perennial top-5 WR status. he was hurt last year, which is why you passed up on him, but you really shouldn't have done that. he's no yulio yones, but given the discount, i don't need him to be. all i need here is for ayay to be ayay.
- 40 is getting old and winding down is the story we're telling ourselves to help us sleep at night. except if you combine the past two seasons for every RB in the league, 40's been the #1 fantasy RB, and it's only close because jamaal charles and marshawn lynch exist. 95% of the RB field, 40 laps like they're standing still. the fact is, even if the winding down narrative is true (and granted, 29 is closer to the cliff than i usually like to walk), he could fall off pretty substantially and still finish as a top-10 RB. the floor in the executive lounge is very high.
THE BAD:
that was easily the unfunnest draft experience i've ever had. the auction format is long, there's zero downtime (you're always on the clock), and it's just not conducive to an entertaining chat room. ernie got into a bidding war and paid $21 for c.j. spiller., which is probably about the equivalent of a 4th round draft pick. in a snake draft, you take c.j. spiller-- who of course is already hurt and may very well be the 3rd best RB on his own team anyway-- in the 4th round, you're on warren status. in an auction draft, the room hardly buzzed. everybody was too busy crunching numbers to notice.
i'll say this for the format though. you're walking without a net. i had a few plans going in, a few guys i was targeting, some i really wanted, some i decided i'd get no matter what. pretty much all that went out the window, and i was forced very quickly from plan A to plan B to about plan E. it's a good plan. it's better than your plan. but this is the unsexiest team i've ever drafted. it's all business. no yulio, no breesus, no tone, no bell. when the money starts flying, your targets go completely out the window, your favorite players are dead to you, and it's all about building value both now and for the later rounds.
the other thing is getting caught in that "last player in your tier" mode. twice i got into a situation where i decided i was getting that guy no matter what. if i had to max bid, so be it. that's a bad situation to be in. once was with ayay, right after an unaffordable bidding war cost me calvin. the other was with romo, who was the last QB off the board with league-ruining upside, and he went way late. i probably would've let ayay go at $55 or so, but romo was a max bid. that's the season if i don't get him. luckily both ended up being bargains, but, man, is that not a good feeling.
also, it's pretty clear that auction makes the disadvantage for rookies that much worse. you can make up for no keepers in a snake draft if you hit on enough of the right players, but in auction there's no way. i probably saved about 40-45 bucks keeping just desean and olsen, and some guys like KC probably had a good $80-90 worth of keepers. that's almost half a budget. i'm gonna clown the rookies as per usual, because they're bad at fantasy football and they deserve it, but i'm not sure how anyone could be expected to compete at a disadvantage like that. time to start stocking up keepers, fellas.
in conclusion, you guys changed the draft format in order to trip me up, but it didn't work. i've reached the executive lounge the past two seasons, and i've got some bad news for you. this is the best team i've ever drafted in this league. maybe by a lot. lots and lots of things would have to go wrong here for me to miss the playoffs, and i only need two or three things to go right and it's HKTB. you're the butter, guys. keep up. discuss. "i smack clowns with nouns, punch herbs with verbs..."
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