""DataBall" + EPV, or why Chris Paul is as good as you think (link)"
another great Grantland article from Kirk Goldsberry yesterday about the forefront of analytics emerging from the implementation of SportsVU league-wide. personally, I think it's pretty interesting about how it's as math-wonky you can get while just saying some pretty obvious things that anyone above an 8th grade basketball reading level can probably tell you. here's a link to the article and the concise swipe explaining EPV (Expected Point Value).
For example, imagine LeBron James holding the basketball completely unguarded underneath the basket. We would expect him to score two points. The EPV at that moment would be very close to two. Conversely, imagine Dwight Howard holding the ball 40 feet from the hoop with one second remaining on the shot clock and three defenders in his face. It’s highly unlikely that Howard would score. That moment would be ascribed an EPV very close to zero. Of course, most on-court predicaments in the NBA are not this extreme, but they still can be evaluated through this EPV framework.
While that is novel, the really big ideas trickle down from here.
If we can estimate the EPV of any moment of any given game, we can start to quantify performance in a more sophisticated way. We can derive the “value” of things like entry passes, dribble drives, and double-teams. We can more accurately quantify which pick-and-roll defenses work best against certain teams and players. By extracting and analyzing the game’s elementary acts, we can isolate which little pieces of basketball strategy are more or less effective, and which players are best at executing them. ______________________________________________________________________
one of the best takeaways from this article? a link to the research paper Goldsberry based all this on:
and no, I can't make much sense of that, either. but I CAN scan quickly enough to find the part mentioning that Appendix 1 lists the Top 10 and Bottom 10 players ranked by EPVA, aka the list that says Chris Paul is the best offensive player in basketball.
Player EPVA Chris Paul 3.48 Dirk Nowitzki 2.60 Deron Williams 2.52 Stephen Curry 2.50 Jamal Crawford 2.50 Greivis Vasquez 2.46 LaMarcus Aldridge 2.40 Steve Nash 2.09 Wesley Matthews 2.06 Damian Lillard 1.95
Ricky Rubio -3.33 Kevin Love -2.38 Russell Westbrook -2.07 Evan Turner -1.90 Austin Rivers -1.84 Rudy Gay -1.75 Jrue Holiday -1.51 Paul George -1.49 Chris Singleton -1.48 Roy Hibbert -1.44
useless numbers or actual insight into the game? either way, I'd hope my GM is at least considering it before offering Austin Rivers a second contract...
but the more one understands EPV, the more one should marvel at the technical achievement (TWO EFFING TERRABYTES TO RUN BASKETBALL DATA?!?!?!?) and understand that, yeah, this right hurr is the future.
---- bshelly
"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.ā€¯ (c) The God
3. "three PDX players in the top 10? two Indiana players in the bottom?" In response to Reply # 1
two Minnesota players in the bottom as well? surely there has to be SOME accounting for the fact that a player's EPV is inter-connected with the other players surrounding them.
yeah, Portland's offense is good. that's because they have an elite offensive starting five. if you isolate the EPV for Lillard when Aldridge is on the bench, what happens then?
skepticism isn't fear-based, it's how understanding improves.
5. "The Indy thing makes sense - they're a below average offense." In response to Reply # 3
They just happen to be the best defensive team ever, but the O is the reason they could struggle come playoff time if, say, Hibbert gets in foul trouble and they're having to rely on Bynum (lol).
Carmelo Anthony, often labeled as a selfish shooter, averages +0.053, meaning that we expect the team to score 0.053 more points for an Anthony shot attempt than had he passed the ball instead. Carmelo's shot satisfaction is at the 22% quantile of player scores, meaning more than 1 in 5 players are objectively more “selfish” in their shot selections.
8. "Anyone who shoots a high 3FG% and does little else..." In response to Reply # 6
.. is favoured by these stats.
Lets just remember this is purely an on-the-ball offensive reading. It can't talk about D or ability to cause the defense to collectively kill itself (Russy).
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