|
Wisconsin Badgers
2012-13: 23-12 (12-6)
In-conference offense: 0.99 points per possession (8th)
In-conference defense: 0.91 points per possession (1st)
In some respects, it was steady as it goes for Wisconsin in 2012-13. The 23 wins were nothing to sneeze at, nor was the No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. A 12-6 conference mark kept the Badgers in the running for the Big Ten regular-season title, and Wisconsin advanced to the conference tournament final. It was another vintage defensive performance for Bo Ryan's charges, as they led the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. Still, with an offensive performance that was the poorest of any of Ryan's teams in Madison, and a one-and-done showing in the Big Dance, a pessimist might see some cracks forming in a formerly solid foundation.
The strength of the Badgers was clearly point prevention. Wisconsin's stingy defense, along with Ryan's typically slow tempo, held opponents under the 50-point mark a remarkable 10 times. Thank heavens for the shot clock. For the second straight season, Ryan pulled off the difficult feat of not only preventing 3-point looks, ranking seventh nationally in that area, but also limiting the percentage, allowing just a 29 percent success rate.
With the shot-blocking center duo of Jared Berggren and Frank Kaminsky on hand, the Badgers did fine inside the arc too. The defensive numbers were off the charts: In conference play, Wisconsin led the Big Ten in defensive rebound percentage, limiting fouls and holding down 2- and 3-point shooting.
Unfortunately, Berggren is gone, a victim of the NCAA's pesky rule limiting players to four years of eligibility. Berggren's frontcourt cohorts left with him. Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans moved on, Evans taking with him a team-best defensive rebound rate.
Projected starting lineup
Pos. Name Year
C
Frank Kaminsky
Jr.
F
Nigel Hayes
Fr.
F
Sam Dekker
Soph.
G
Josh Gasser
Jr.
G
Ben Brust
Sr.
The worst a Ryan defense has ranked in adjusted efficiency over the last 11 years has been 67th. Eight times, he's been in the top 20. So to expect a defensive collapse in Madison because of the departures would be wrong-headed. The real question is: Can an offense trending in the wrong direction offset what almost certainly promises to be a step back on the other end?
The answer to that question might well be yes, and that's why the Badgers should once again take their place among the chief contenders for the Big Ten crown.
It starts with the return of Josh Gasser, who missed the entire 2012-13 season after going down with a torn ACL. In his last healthy campaign, Gasser lit up opposing defenses to the tune of a 45 percent success rate from 3-point land, and he took more than half his shots from that range. On defense he's a surprisingly capable rebounder for his position and, insofar as Ryan allows any player to gamble on D, Gasser gets his fair share of steals.
Gasser will pair with last season's breakout performer, guard Ben Brust. Brust took advantage of Gasser's absence to lead the balanced Wisconsin attack, and did so with a sterling .542 true shooting percentage. He's not a creator, though he's more capable in that regard than Gasser.
Brust and Gasser might often share the court with Traevon Jackson, who lacks the shooting chops of the other guards, but is the best playmaker of the three and offers a little more athleticism on the defensive end.
The breakout star on the Badgers, and perhaps the conference, will almost certainly be wing Sam Dekker. In 420 fewer minutes, Dekker ranked second to Brust with 50 made 3s and with a better success rate. At 6-foot-7, he can rise over smaller defenders and score with an elite level of efficiency, and he has the athleticism to create his own offense. He converted 57 percent of his 2-point looks as a freshman.
With all of those guards around to draw defenders, Dekker should be Wisconsin's leading scorer and might contend for tops in the conference in that category. That's assuming, of course, that Dekker plays more than the 22 minutes per game he got as a freshman.
With the weapons on hand, that opens the door for highly ranked freshman Nigel Hayes to step in and make an immediate impact. A legit power forward at 6-7, 230, Hayes is a perfect fit in a front line featuring Dekker and Kaminsky. He has a nice face-up game to go with all the other shooting in the lineup, but he also has interior moves if teams try to defend him with a smaller player. The only question is whether Hayes' minutes will be limited by Ryan's preference for easing freshmen into the mix (see Dekker's 2012-13).
Just as Ryan has increasingly emphasized protecting the arc on defense, he has also encouraged his shooters to fire away behind it on the offensive end. Last season marked the third in a row in which Wisconsin took at least 40 percent of its shots from 3-point land. Unfortunately, for the second straight season, the Badgers' success rate declined, this time falling to 33 percent, which ranked 214th in Division I.
Wisconsin needs to excel behind the arc because there aren't a lot of hopes for succeeding inside it. Kaminsky is a skilled player, but he took almost as many 3s as 2s as a center on what he hopes will eventually be a Jon Leuer path. The only other player on the roster listed as 6-10 or taller is Evan Anderson, a redshirt junior who hasn't shown much thus far.
Much will fall on the shoulders of Kaminsky, who needs to fine-tune his offensive game while also trying to mitigate the lost blocked shots and rebounds from the departures of Berggren and Evans.
The bench mix has some interesting options, led by part-time starter George Marshall, a 5-11 point guard who is yet another deep-shooting option. Freshmen Vitto Brown, Bronson Koenig, Jordan Hill and Riley Dearring might also earn opportunities.
When you add it up, it certainly looks as if the talent scale in Madison has tilted toward the offensive end. We know that the Badgers' defense will be capable because, well, it always is. However, it'll be a return to high-efficiency offense that will keep Wisconsin in contention both in the conference and in the NCAA tournament.
Some might even suggest that such a personnel group demands a scheme that yields a few more possessions per game. There have, after all, been plenty of excellent teams that outscored opponents by beating them up with early offense.
But while we don't quite know how Ryan's 2013-14 rotation is going to fit together, he's been around long enough that we can make one declaration: Faces change and some things are altered, but for the most part, a Bo Ryan team is as constant as a Wisconsin winter. The pace is not going to accelerate. And you know what? For the vast majority of Badgers fans, that's not a bad thing.
Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 4th
RECOMMEND1TWEET0COMMENTS0EMAILPRINTInsiderSUBSCRIBE
Bradford Doolittle
FollowArchive
Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association -------------------
I wanna go to where the martyrs went
the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...
|
Printer-friendly copy 
Email this topic to a friend
Okay Sports
