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Much of the talk surrounding the quarterbacks at last week's NFL draft focused on the lack of elite talent in the 2013 class. While ESPN colleague Trent Dilfer may be spot-on in saying that "the real value at the position will come in the middle rounds," impatient fan bases want answers now, and those answers include quarterbacks deemed to be franchise difference-makers. This has been pronounced by the fact that last year's QB crop may be the best the league has seen in three decades, headlined by Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson.
Ready for the good news? Next year's class of draft-eligible college football QBs is loaded with talent.
This group of signal-callers has a bona fide potential No. 1 pick in the making and plenty of others who could grow into first-round draft material. While these passers vary in skill set, they have been very productive, in some cases historically so. But most importantly, the simple eye and gut tests tell you that unlike 2013's crew, the 2014 group is loaded with the type of leaders of men and leaders of franchises whom every NFL GM and head coach covets.
In 10 of the past 13 years, the first guy strutting out of the NFL draft green room has been a quarterback (the lone exceptions being Jake Long in 2008, Mario Williams in 2006 and Eric Fisher in 2013). After a one-year hiatus in this year's draft, I expect that trend to continue in 2014.
Here is my ranking of the top five QB prospects for the 2014 NFL draft, along with five more guys to keep an eye on. Look for all 10 of these signal-callers to be star performers in college football this season.
1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville Cardinals "He would be the top guy taken in draft," said ESPN analyst Rod Gilmore. "Accuracy, toughness, smart and that special something you feel when watching him up close. He simply knows how to throw guys open." Many scouts similarly assess the 6-foot-3, 220-pound QB. Bridgewater is similar to an ace pitcher in that when you watch him throw, you clearly get the sense that his "stuff" is different.
Unfortunately, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs' timing couldn't have been worse in terms of landing the top pick in 2013, as they missed Luck by a year and miss out -- at least in the 2013 draft -- on Bridgewater's immense talent.
Louisville better be ready in its opening game versus Ohio, and must improve upon its 105th-ranked rushing offense from last season. A better ground game will enhance Bridgewater's immense play-action gifts while preventing the top prospect from taking some of the pounding he did a season ago (28 sacks).
2. Tajh Boyd, Clemson Tigers Clemson's Chick-fil-A Bowl victory over LSU was the capper to a monster junior campaign that saw Boyd manage expectation, hype, his weight and the mechanics of a game in ways that NFL quarterbacks must do on a weekly basis. The fourth-most efficient passer in college football will be without some of the explosive firepower he had around him in 2012, including standout wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (though both offensive coordinator Chad Morris and game-changing WR Sammy Watkins return).
The number of sacks (31) and interceptions (13) conceded will be a focal point for the Tigers this fall, as will overall second-half production. Boyd's splits last season reveal a startling discrepancy between his first-half stats (26 TDs, 6 INTs) and second-half stats (10 TDs, 7 INTs).
Boyd became the face of Clemson's program in 2012 and has first-round upside heading into 2013. The LSU finale and the punishment Boyd endured while delivering in the clutch time and again turned heads. Plus, his third-down tape is better than any prospect in the 2013 class.
Clemson's opening game against Georgia will pit Boyd against the next top prospect on our list, Aaron Murray, and could serve as a platform to greatly boost one or both of their draft stocks.
3. Aaron Murray, Georgia Bulldogs The other senior-to-be in this top five made the wise decision to return to school and build upon a stellar 2012. Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo made clear to Murray after the 2011 season that there were fundamental changes that needed to be made from the ground up, and Murray listened. He improved his footwork, developed better body control (both inside and outside the pocket), added strength and enhanced his accuracy in the intermediate-to-long passing game, netting Murray and the Bulldogs record-breaking numbers in 2012. Georgia set a school scoring record, while Murray passed for 3,893 yards and posted a 36-10 TD-to-INT ratio.
What brought Murray back to Athens for a fifth and final season? A combined 2-5 TD-to-INT ratio in games versus Alabama, Florida and South Carolina. The remaining question surrounding Murray isn't his productivity (he has amassed a total of more than 10,000 yards and 95 TDs) or his height. And it's not his gamesmanship, line-of-scrimmage mechanics or how he manipulates defenses -- all of which are NFL-caliber. Rather, Murray struggled to play his best in the biggest moments last season. In 2013, Murray will be immediately judged with battles against Clemson, South Carolina and LSU in three of the first four weeks.
Watch those games closely to see how he performs on third down, in the red zone and in the fourth quarter. NFL scouts and decision-makers certainly will be watching.
4. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks Prototypical. Smooth. Effortless. Accurate. The scouting descriptors come fast and furious when evaluating the Ducks' 6-4 quarterback. I vividly remember former Oregon coach Chip Kelly telling me in our production meeting before the 2011 Civil War game just how much I would like Mariota, and this was while Mariota was redshirting without having played a college snap.
Kelly was right: I did like Mariota from his first snap to his last in 2012, a season in which the Ducks won 12 of 13 games and were one bad half away from setting up the title game most of the country wanted to see. Wrapped up in those 12 victories was the country's sixth-most efficient passer, who threw 32 touchdowns from just about every angle, platform and movement imaginable while completing slightly less than 70 percent of his overall throws. He added another 752 yards on the ground, running for more than seven yards a carry and five TDs.
Like Bridgewater above and Braxton Miller below, the most critical aspect of the NFL evaluation and projection process surrounding Mariota will focus on how much he has achieved (and the ease with which he has done so) at such a young age. Last season, no moment, no game and no level of adversity was too much for the 19-year-old. And when that unflinching poise is paired with elite size, speed and ability, first-round expectations follow.
The Ducks will be without Kelly and a number of defenders who have moved on to the NFL, but the schedule and pieces are in place offensively to force Mariota into a stay-or-jump decision at season's end.
5. Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes From his first day on campus, Miller changed the atmosphere and temperature in Columbus. Physically powerful and a better, more natural runner than he is a passer, Miller's best football is ahead of him.
In stark contrast to the 2012 QB draft class, Miller elevates the people around him, even if his style is more rugged than the NFL passing game mandates.
The Buckeyes are the clear favorite to win the Big Ten, and after a perfect run in 2012, will look to add to the streak this season. Miller's road numbers (just four passing touchdowns in 2012) and third-down execution (48 percent accuracy) must improve, but put on his fourth-quarter reel and you'll understand why his teammates follow him.
If Tim Tebow could complete 66 percent of his passes at Florida in Urban Meyer's system, then Miller's 58 percent clip must significantly improve. Accuracy can't always be taught, but neither can winning and toughness. If his passing efficiency improves, Miller's stock will soar and NFL teams will clamor for a leader they couldn't find in the 2013 draft.
Five more to watch 6. AJ McCarron, Alabama Crimson Tide: The rings speak for themselves. The question is upside and unique skill set. Another run at an SEC title and an unprecedented third national championship while under center will propel McCarron up draft boards.
7. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies: The comparisons to Russell Wilson are inaccurate, as Manziel's body and arm strength need to develop. However, Manziel has no peer at the college level (and few at the next level) when it comes to flair, creativity and the uncanny ability to extend plays.
8. Stephen Morris, Miami Hurricanes: No quarterback made more throws that forced me to rewind the tape last season than Morris. He has unique arm talent, but must play every snap consistently.
9. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech Hokies: A lot of what I just wrote about Morris can also be said about Thomas, but the Virginia Tech passer has even more physical upside, as he checks in at 6-6 and 250-plus pounds.
10. Derek Carr, Fresno State Bulldogs: Carr, who has a lightning-quick release, piled up 4,104 passing yards and 37 TDs in 2012, but his bowl game performance was a dud. Fresno State's opening tilt versus Rutgers will be a statement game for Carr.
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Brock Huard ESPN Insider FollowArchive • College football analyst for ESPN • Six-year NFL QB, and three-year starter at University of Washington • Co-host of the Brock and Danny Show on ESPN 710 AM in Seattle ------------------- I wanna go to where the martyrs went the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...
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