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(kind of a shameless plug for his book but i always respected bilas even with his obv Coach K hardon)
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9010208/indiana-hoosiers-remain-no-1-jay-bilas-ranking-nation-top-68-teams-college-basketball
'Toughness: Developing True Strength On and Off the Court'
What does it take to succeed? Jay Bilas' new book looks at the true meaning of toughness. It isn't about bravado. It is about meeting challenges head-on and not shrinking from them.
Order: Amazon | Barnes & Noble
Losses last week by Indiana and Duke cleared the path for Gonzaga to take over the top spot in the Associated Press poll, which is a sorry excuse for a method of rating teams.
Of course, there is only one definitive word on basketball merit and accomplishment, and that is The Bilas Index. With it, you have a comprehensive information bank of incontestable, watertight and indubitable basketball data made easy to understand by the massive brain and roundball experience of The Bilastrator.
While The Bilas Index would be unassailable using only the two eyes and basketball judgment of The Bilastrator, The Bilas Index also incorporates reliable metrics from ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Sagarin Ratings, KenPom.com, the UPS Team Performance Index, Basketball Prospectus and Synergy Sports Technology. The result is a ranking of the most accomplished and best basketball teams in America, ordered from 1 to 68.
Because of the beautiful basketball mind of The Bilastrator, The Bilas Index is "storm worthy," despite the potential for grievous bodily harm visited upon those who might deny its logic.
Don't kid yourself: The selection committee is looking at The Bilas Index and pretending not to, but it really doesn't matter. The committee still has to hit the right buttons on the voting computers by themselves with no help from their assistants, and the chances the committee does it right are the same as John Blutarsky's GPA at Faber College -- 0.0.
As you enjoy the beautiful certainty of The Bilas Index, as always, you're welcome.
Moving out: Valparaiso, Indiana State
Coming in: California, Dayton
Highest rise: Saint Louis, Virginia
Largest drop: Arkansas
1. Indiana Hoosiers (Previous ranking: 1)
The Hoosiers got hammered on the glass and in the paint against Minnesota, when even Victor Oladipo wasn't able to make plays down the stretch. Indiana might have lost the No. 1 ranking with the loss but will not lose a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Although Indiana did not play a challenging nonconference schedule, there were still wins over North Carolina and Georgetown, and Indiana has eight overall wins against teams in the top 50 of the KenPom.com efficiency ratings and all four of its losses are against teams rated in the top 50 (Butler, Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota).
The Hoosiers bounced back against Iowa behind the great play of Cody Zeller, who scored 22 points and had 10 rebounds, and Yogi Ferrell, who had a career-high 19 points. Indiana leads the Big Ten in overall efficiency, effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, and both free throw and 3-point shooting percentage. Zeller is in the top five in the Big Ten in scoring (third), rebounding (second), field goal percentage (fourth) and offensive rebounds (second).
2. Louisville Cardinals (Previous ranking: 4)
The Cardinals were a favorite of The Bilastrator for a reason. Is this a team without flaw? Of course not. But it is a team that continues to guard people and has challenged itself with a terrific schedule. Louisville has four losses against teams ranked in the Sagarin top 25, and the Cards have been in every game down the stretch. The Cardinals have the highest BPI in conference games in the nation (90.6).
The only problem The Bilastrator sees for Rick Pitino's team is its inconsistent perimeter shooting. Louisville is 252nd in the nation in 3-point shooting but 10th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. And this team plays hard and with an edge. Don't be surprised to see it in Atlanta.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs (Previous ranking: 3)
With the Zags climbing to the top of every major poll, Mark Few will be atop the basketball world, looking down on his peers (a feat Few can accomplish in a literal sense only when he stands on a very tall ladder).
The Bulldogs' win at BYU was significant because the Marriott Center is a tough place to play, and the contest was a fight more than it was a game. Gonzaga kept its cool and played with intense concentration, yet still played relaxed in the action. The concentration in the win against Portland showed this is a tougher team than most might realize. Against the Pilots, Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris combined for 35 points on 15-of-21 shooting from the field and 20 rebounds .
Gonzaga does not have the same schedule strength as some of the other top-rated teams but has played a challenging schedule out of conference, resulting in six wins against the BPI top 50 and 12 wins against the BPI top 100. And, against BPI top-50 teams, Gonzaga has the highest BPI (93.2 BPI, 6-1 record). That counts.
4. Duke Blue Devils (Previous ranking: 8)
The Bilastrator was not shocked to see Virginia beat Duke. Rather, he was shocked to see others so shocked. Virginia controls tempo and packs the lane, and the absence of Ryan Kelly didn't allow Duke to stretch that packed defense. The loss was important in that it took Duke out of contention for an ACC title.
It seemed clear Duke could not win the whole thing without Kelly back healthy, but with him, Duke has as good a chance as several other teams. The Blue Devils are 15-0 and have a 94.6 BPI when they have all their top players in the lineup this season, both of which are best in the nation. They struggle on the glass against bigger teams that take boxing out seriously without Kelly, but this weakness is not as pronounced with Kelly in the lineup.
The win over Miami on Saturday proved that Duke, with Kelly, is formidable. Kelly scored 36 points in 32 minutes in a performance the likes of which The Bilastrator had never seen before. To come off of a seven-week injury and play at that level is mind-boggling. Wow. Just wow.
5. Florida Gators (Previous ranking: 2)
Florida remains the only team in the nation ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. With injuries, the Gators have not been as strong as they could have been, but those fretting over a loss at Tennessee are wasting valuable energy. The Gators have lost eight of their past 11 against the Vols (and beyond that point, The Bilastrator simply got tired of counting Florida L's). Yet, despite the results against Tennessee, Florida has managed to get to the Elite Eight the past two seasons. All of Florida's losses have come on the road this season.
Something Gators fans should be worried about is the fact that Florida does not get to the free throw line enough. But with Will Yeguete and Michael Frazier back healthy as we head down the stretch, the Gators can be at their best at the right time, and the win over Alabama was a solid home effort. Florida is 23-0 in games decided by 12 or more. Florida is 0-5 in games decided by 11 points or fewer.
6. Kansas Jayhawks (Previous ranking: 7)
On "College GameDay" at Kansas, The Bilastrator scolded those who suggested Elijah Johnson couldn't play and that somehow he was the problem. Once again, The Bilastrator proved to be not only correct (which is always the case), but downright prescient. Johnson went off for 39 points at Iowa State, one of the all-time great performances for a Kansas guard. Then, freshman sensation Ben McLemore went off for 36 points on 12-of-15 shooting and seven rebounds against West Virginia on Saturday, and Kansas won its seventh in a row. The Jayhawks are unlikely to lose again before the postseason.
Bill Self has done another magnificent job with this team, and will be celebrated as one of the truly great coaches in the game today and for the ages. He will be in the Naismith Hall of Fame someday relatively soon. His record of high-level winning is beyond impressive.
7. Georgetown Hoyas (Previous ranking: 11)
Please meet Otto Porter Jr., the new Victor Oladipo. After he scored 33 points against Syracuse and 22 after halftime against UConn, national writers were throwing Oladipo out and declaring Porter was now the Wooden Award favorite. Of course, Porter is truly outstanding and worthy of such praise. While The Bilastrator is not enjoying watching basketball become football on the floor, he is enjoying it mirroring football and the Heisman race. Every game is a referendum on whether a player can play.
Porter followed up Syracuse and UConn with 28 points, eight rebounds and four steals against Rutgers, and has sewn up Big East player of the year honors. He has averaged 19.8 points per game (and the Hoyas are 13-1) since Greg Whittington was suspended.
Georgetown is excellent defensively and probably better on the offensive end than the numbers show. But of teams ranked in the top 20 of the KenPom.com efficiency ratings, Georgetown is, by far, the lowest-rated offensive team (75th). In that top 20, only Georgetown and Oklahoma State (53rd) are rated outside the nation's top 40 in offensive efficiency.
8. Michigan State Spartans (Previous ranking: 5)
Tom Izzo reminded his fans that the world is not spinning off its axis after a couple of tough losses. After all, Michigan State has played the second-toughest slate in the country, so why shouldn't Sparty be unbeaten?
The Spartans are not perfect but are tested and tough enough to make waves in the postseason. The key will be health. If Travis Trice, one really tough kid, and Gary Harris are ready to go as we head into postseason play, The Bilastrator likes Michigan State on a neutral floor.
An important aspect will be the turnover battle. Michigan State does not force them and has coughed up the ball too much (second-highest turnover percentage in the Big Ten). But during conference play, the Spartans have been much better with the ball (Sunday's loss to Michigan, in which the Spartans committed 18 turnovers to the Wolverines' seven, notwithstanding). If that continues, or improves, it could be a Sparty party in the NCAA tournament.
9. Miami Hurricanes (Previous ranking: 9)
Miami got Ryan Kelly's best shot, and that was enough to beat the Hurricanes in Cameron, with a few slaps of the floor along the way. Still, even with Kelly going crazy on Miami, Shane Larkin kept the Canes in it and with a chance to tie the game on the last possession.
The recognized metrics place Miami among the top 15 teams in the country, but The Bilastrator gives Miami a break for having guys out early in the season. With all top players available, Miami is 15-2, and that matters.
Defense is still the Hurricanes' calling card. The Hurricanes can find that card in their wallets, right behind their AARP cards. The Bilastrator sincerely hopes you weren't drinking anything while reading that clever zinger, or it would be rushing out of your nose due to the hilarity that follows reading it.
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (Previous ranking: 15)
The Buckeyes have won three straight since getting blown out by Wisconsin, in part thanks to a motivational video from Super Bowl champion Ray Lewis. The Buckeyes have gotten some big offensive performances recently from players not named Deshaun Thomas (although Thomas is still scoring more than 28 percent of Ohio State's points, the highest percentage in the Big Ten). Against Northwestern, Lenzelle Smith scored 24 points and hit six 3-point field goals. Against Michigan State, Aaron Craft scored 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting, and the defensive pest drove the ball right through the Spartans.
Ohio State ranks 15th in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the KenPom.com ratings, and the Buckeyes take good care of the ball. Ohio State has won four games against the BPI top 50, with six losses.
11. New Mexico Lobos (Previous ranking: 14)
Last week, The Bilastrator lauded the Lobos' toughness, and that was fully on display against San Diego State. Tony Snell trailed Jamaal Franklin all over the floor, made him work for every single point and made sure those points didn't come efficiently against his defense. Then, Snell ran the Aztecs off of screens and worked his tail off moving without the ball. Alex Kirk was dominant, and Kendall Williams didn't have to score 46 for the Lobos to win.
This team is really good, but tougher than it is proficient. The only way to beat this team is to keep New Mexico off of the free throw line, something Wyoming could not do on Saturday. Kirk and Cameron Bairstow combined for 28 points and 18 rebounds against the Cowboys, and in the Lobos' last two games, the duo has combined for 69 points and 30 rebounds. New Mexico has now won 25 games for the eighth time in program history, and its 17 wins over BPI top 100 teams is the most in the nation.
12. Michigan Wolverines (Previous ranking: 6)
The Bilastrator told you not to overreact to a few losses -- and then Michigan goes to State College and pulls a Kansas. While losing to Penn State is nowhere near the same as losing to TCU, and the Wolverines bounced back nicely with a one-point win over Michigan State on Sunday, it was still bad. Michigan had the game in hand, up 15 points with 10 minutes to go. Then, the Wolverines became marshmallow soft -- running from charges, playing dodgeball on rebounds and taking jump shots instead of driving it and getting to the free throw line. This team needs to toughen up, because playing pretty in the Big Ten gets you beat.
This is still a very good team that can really score, and it is rated No. 2 in the nation in offensive efficiency. But stopping somebody has to be a priority. Being rated 57th in defensive efficiency shouldn't make the Wolverines feel good. Michigan is 3-3 in its past six after going 20-2 to start the season.
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Previous ranking: 13)
The Cowboys beat a struggling Texas team on Saturday that was coming off of a sterling win against Oklahoma in which the Longhorns scored 32 points in the final seven minutes to send the game into overtime, and ultimately led to a Texas win. Oklahoma State is 6-5 against the BPI top 50, and has won games against Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State, NC State, Tennessee and Akron.
Marcus Smart has garnered most of the praise, as he should because he is one of the 10 best players in college basketball, but Markel Brown's improvement has been remarkable. This is a good defensive team with an effective field goal percentage in the top 25 in the nation.
14. Syracuse Orange (Previous ranking: 12)
The Orange have lost six of 10, and have not gotten consistent scoring from their guards. The Syracuse defense has been solid, although the Orange have not been generating points off of turnovers as easily as they were in the early part of the season. Against Louisville on Saturday, Syracuse coughed the ball up 16 times and did not get scoring out of Michael Carter-Williams or Brandon Triche. It's tough for Syracuse to win when both of them go cold. Of late, Syracuse has been the pitcher trying to throw strikes and pitch a shutout without run support; sooner or later, you are going to get tagged. The Orange have to find a way to score from the pivot and the guard spots.
15. Kansas State Wildcats (Previous ranking: 16)
The Wildcats are in the mix for a share of the Big 12 title, even though Kansas beat them twice. Bruce Weber has done a remarkable job with this team. Kansas State showed a lot of toughness to execute under stress at Baylor and for Rodney McGruder to hit the game-winner with a second left in regulation.
Kansas State is not a great defensive team, but a good one, and this offense has continued to improve throughout the season. Right now, Kansas State is one of the 25 most efficient offenses in the country, and a large part of that comes from activity on the offensive glass, as the Wildcats are 10th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, which means easier second shots. Kansas State is not quite as good on the opposite backboard, giving up too many second opportunities.
McGruder has had a great season, and is a clear choice for first team All-Big 12. Kansas State has won nine of 10 since losing back-to-back games to Kansas and Iowa State, and the Wildcats are ranked No. 33 in the BPI, No. 31 in KemPom.com, and No. 21 in the Sagarin ratings. The Bilastrator has Kansas State more in line with Sagarin, which makes Sagarin correct.
16. Virginia Commonwealth Rams (Previous ranking: 19)
The Rams were near perfect on the defensive end against Butler, forcing the Bulldogs into 20 turnovers, with 17 of them steals. The pressure on the ball was stunning, and VCU played without fouling. Troy Daniels had 20 points and Darius Theus had nine assists and five steals in the blowout, which was one of the worst beatings The Bilastrator can recall Butler taking from a true peer.
VCU leads the country in turnover percentage, and is 23-0 when forcing at least 15 turnovers (and 0-6 when it doesn't).
17. Wisconsin Badgers (Previous ranking: 17)
The RPI and KenPom love Bo Ryan's crew, and the BPI really likes the Badgers as well. Wisconsin has beaten five teams ranked in the BPI top 50 (and five AP top 25 teams, second only to Indiana), but has been beaten by seven of those same. They lost by 13 at home to Purdue on Sunday.
The Badgers have beaten Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, California and Arkansas. Wisconsin leads the nation in turnover percentage, and the Badgers are No. 300 in free throw rate.
18. Arizona Wildcats (Previous ranking: 10)
The Wildcats laid an egg at USC, and turned the ball over nine times in the first half at Pauley Pavilion. This is a young team that has not progressed on the defensive end as much as The Bilastrator would have expected. The Wildcats are 3-4 in their past seven games, after starting the season 20-2.
Still, this is a good team that can do damage on the glass, and with its size Arizona is still a formidable challenge. A real key for Arizona is Solomon Hill, one of the best and most versatile players in the Pac-12. At the power forward position, Hill presents a tremendous challenge. He can post, shoot from deep, or drive it and spin past defenders. The Wildcats still rebound, getting 72 percent of opponents' missed shots, and allowing only 7.4 second-chance points per game.
Against UCLA, Mark Lyons had too many turnovers and too few assists and good decisions. Lyons is a tough competitor, but was outdueled by Larry Drew II twice this season.
19. Marquette Golden Eagles (Previous ranking: 21)
A team that had been driven by its guards was taken over by its big men in the last week. First, Davante Gardner dominated the paint against Syracuse in a home win, then Chris Otule scored 16 points and went 8-for-8 from the field against Notre Dame (and Jamil Wilson threw in 19 points), as Marquette shot 59 percent from the field against the Irish. Marquette has now won four of five, all with a 3-point shooting percentage that ranks 311th in Division I, and sits a game back of the Big East lead.
20. Saint Louis Billikens (Previous ranking: 41)
The Billikens have won 11 in a row, and have some really good numbers -- and wins over Butler twice, VCU and New Mexico. Saint Louis is better on the defensive end than it is on offense, but it does a good job making things difficult on opposing defenses. The Billikens are 2-1 against the BPI top 50, and 10-4 against the BPI top 100. Against George Washington, Dwayne Evans had 22 points, 12 rebounds and 4 steals, while Kwamain Mitchell scored 18 points on 6-of-12 shooting. This is a well-coached, smart team that can play with anyone. Saint Louis is capable of winning a couple of games in the NCAA tournament, and would be tough in a Sweet 16 game.
21. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Previous ranking: 23)
The Wolfpack's numbers are confounding to some, but not to The Bilastrator. This is a talented team that can score from every position on the floor. In fact, NC State has an offense rated as the 11th-most efficient in the nation. But its defense is below average, especially given its athleticism, size and talent. The Wolfpack only guard people when they feel like it, and try to outscore opponents on the offensive end rather than holding them down on the defensive end. Still, NC State is dangerous in the NCAA tournament because of its ability to score.
22. Pittsburgh Panthers (Previous ranking: 26)
The Panthers are seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency and 14th in the country in offensive efficiency. The problem in the past few weeks has been on the glass, as Pitt simply didn't compete on the boards against Notre Dame a few weeks back. Pitt is 23-7 (11-6 in the Big East) and has one of the best offensive rebounding and passing teams in the country. But Pitt's numbers seem better than its team.
23. UNLV Rebels (Previous ranking: 20)
Freshman Anthony Bennett has had some injury issues of late and has not been productive. But Mike Moser made up for it by dropping 20 points and grabbing eight rebounds at Nevada. All five starters scored in double figures, and Bryce Dejean-Jones scored 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting. UNLV has won four in a row, and has Boise State and Fresno State at home before postseason play.
24. Creighton Bluejays (Previous ranking: 30)
Creighton clinched the Missouri Valley Conference title (its first since 2001) at home against Wichita State in a romp. Doug McDermott was magnificent, scoring 41 points on 15-of-18 shooting in one of the best and most efficient performances of the season.
25. Oregon Ducks (Previous ranking: 27)
The Ducks are right in the thick of it for the Pac-12 title, and now have freshman guard Dominic Artis back from an injury. The Ducks are 23-6 and 12-4 in the Pac-12 with an offense rated 107th in the nation. Oregon can guard people, but the Ducks are a little bit loose with the ball.
26. San Diego State Aztecs (Previous ranking: 18)
The Aztecs ran into a hot team in New Mexico. San Diego State is not a great free throw shooting team, hitting only 68 percent of its shots from the stripe as a team, 219th in the nation.
27. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Previous ranking: 35)
The Gophers flexed their muscles against Indiana last week and dominated the glass on both ends. Then, when a letdown was a possibility, Minnesota crushed Penn State, which was coming off of its lone win in Big Ten play. In his past two games, Trevor Mbakwe (who was recruited to Marquette by Tom Crean) scored 34 points, grabbed 25 rebounds and shot 14-of-19 from the field. Minnesota is 20-9, has won five games against the BPI top 50 and has a 10-8 record against the top 100.
28. Virginia Cavaliers (Previous ranking: 49)
As Virginia gets healthy, and has Jontel Evans at full strength, The Bilastrator can put Virginia in almost any matchup and the Cavaliers will make life difficult on the better, more highly regarded opponent. Virginia has shown the ability to lose to bad teams, but the Cavs won't play those teams in the NCAA tournament.
Joe Harris, detailed by The Bilastrator in the Bilas/Ford debates (which make the Lincoln-Douglass debates look like the petty arguments of children in the sandbox), is not a good player but a great one. He is big and strong for a guard, and he is incredibly efficient. Until Ryan Kelly's Willis Reed-esque performance, Harris' 36 points against Duke was the best ACC performance of the season.
Virginia is 20-8 overall and 10-5 in the ACC, and should get a solid seed in the NCAA tournament if it finishes strong.
29. UCLA Bruins (Previous ranking: 40)
Ben Howland is a really good coach who has taken UCLA to three Final Fours, yet that isn't good enough for some. While all are entitled to their opinions, even when wrong, it is useful to point out that the Bruins lead the Pac-12 in scoring and assists and play at a tempo that is the fastest in the league -- and among the top 30 in the nation.
Larry Drew II has been the Bruins' MVP and will soon break Pooh Richarson's single-season assist record, set in 1989. Drew dominated Arizona's Mark Lyons and led UCLA to the cusp of a Pac-12 championship in the regular season, with just a road trip to Washington and Washington State to decide the issue. UCLA has beaten Missouri, Cal, Arizona (twice) and Stanford -- all teams ranked in The Bilas Index. The only real issue to shore up is rebounding, where the Bruins still rank at the bottom of the Pac-12 and among the bottom half of Division I.
30. Missouri Tigers (Previous ranking: 31)
The Tigers beat both LSU and South Carolina after dropping an overtime game at Kentucky. Missouri is 2-2 against the Sagarin top 25 and 4-5 against the Sagarin top 50. The BPI has Missouri pegged at No. 26, with an 8-8 record against the BPI top 100.
31. North Carolina Tar Heels (Previous ranking: 25)
The smaller lineup has been really effective for North Carolina and Roy Williams. The Heels are 21-8 and 11-5 in the ACC, after ripping off five wins in a row since the loss at Cameron Indoor Stadium, including a 21-point win against Florida State. The major issue for North Carolina is at the free throw line. The Heels don't get there often, and don't hit often enough when they get there. But North Carolina is balanced. The Heels are rated No. 39 in offensive efficiency (and play at the sixth-fastest pace in the nation) and 38th in defensive efficiency.
32. Memphis Tigers (Previous ranking: 42)
Josh Pastner got his 100th win and Memphis clinched another Conference USA regular-season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. Memphis is ranked 30th in the Sagarin ratings, but has only one win against the Sagarin top 50. Memphis is ranked 24th in the BPI rankings, and has five wins against the BPI top 100, but has zero against the BPI top 50.
33. Colorado State Rams (Previous ranking: 22)
After playing so well, Colorado State has lost three of its past four. Granted, the losses were hardly to bad teams, dropping games to UNLV, New Mexico and Boise State, but the Rams are on a slide. Colorado State is an excellent rebounding team, corralling 42 percent of its misses on the offensive end, and getting 76.5 percent of its opponents' misses on the defensive end; the Rams are the only team in the country to rank in the top five in both categories. Colorado State has a top-10 offense, according to KenPom's efficiency ratings, but is rated 90th in defensive efficiency.
34. Cincinnati Bearcats (Previous ranking: 32)
The Bearcats needed a win Saturday against UConn, and got it. Cincinnati had lost five of six, and was really struggling to score. Actually, that struggle is not going away, as the metrics confirm that Cincinnati can't score easily from more than three spots on the floor at any given time. Cincinnati has a top-rated defense, but an offensive efficiency that is 111th in the nation.
Cincinnati has wins over Iowa State, Oregon, Alabama, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova and, now, UConn. With so many unaccomplished teams, Cincinnati has to feel like it's in the NCAA field, even though there are more games to be played.
35. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Previous ranking: 33)
Jack Cooley was sick against Marquette, and played sparingly. As a result, the Irish couldn't control the paint, and suffered their first loss in three games after having beaten Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Notre Dame is another team of extremes -- the Irish offense is rated No. 12 by KenPom, but the defense is rated No 112.
36. Wichita State Shockers (Previous ranking: 28)
The Shockers have dropped two in a row, to Evansville and a blowout loss at Creighton. Wichita State is 24-7, has won two games against the BPI top 50 and has a record of 10-6 against the BPI top 100. Cleanthony Early is a do-everything player for Wichita State and the Shockers have good talent that plays hard. This will be a difficult team to match up against in the NCAA tournament.
37. Iowa State Cyclones (Previous ranking: 29)
Iowa State hit 11 3-point field goals and had only nine turnovers against Oklahoma, but the Sooners only had five turnovers and hit a record 34-of-34 from the foul line. The loss comes on the heels of the controversial loss to Kansas at Hilton Coliseum, which was a punch in the gut. The Bilastrator believes that Iowa State is an NCAA tournament team, and would count the two games against Kansas not as wins, but not as losses, either. Think about it: Ben McLemore banks in a 3-pointer at The Phog and Kansas needed a controversial call to escape Hilton with an overtime win. The Cyclones will be dancing, and you had better guard the 3-point line if you play them. Iowa State has a top-10 rated offense, according to KenPom.
38. Saint Mary's Gaels (Previous ranking: 36)
The Gaels are 26-5 and 14-2 in the West Coast Conference, with both losses coming to Gonzaga. The Gaels are seventh in the nation in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, and are 10th in effective field goal percentage. Matthew Dellavedova went for 21 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists against Santa Clara, and went 11-of-11 from the free throw line.
39. Illinois Fighting Illini (Previous ranking: 35)
The Illini made nine 3-point field goals against Nebraska, but won the game from the free throw line. Their dynamic guards, Tracy Abrams, Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, combined for 43 points in the win, which was not Illinois' best. Illinois is 21-9 overall, and scratched back to .500 in the Big Ten at 8-8. That said, Illinois has beaten Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota, Gonzaga and Butler.
40. Kentucky Wildcats (Previous ranking: 37)
After looking much better against Missouri at Rupp Arena a week ago, and following it up with a blowout win over Mississippi State, Kentucky was still not prepared for the onslaught of pressure at Arkansas. The Wildcats held Arkansas to just 35 percent shooting, but turned the Razorbacks over only seven times. By contrast, Kentucky coughed the ball up 18 times and provided most of Arkansas' offense, consisting of easier chances in advantage situations. Kentucky has beaten Missouri, Tennessee and Maryland, but does not have the résumé wins you would expect. A win in the season finale at Rupp against Florida probably would seal a tourney bid.
41. Colorado Buffaloes (Previous ranking: 34)
After a good win at Stanford, in which Stanford's Dwight Powell dunked the ball just after the buzzer, which would have sent the game to overtime, the Buffs were dispatched quickly by Cal on Saturday. Colorado shot only 23 percent from the field against the Bears, and Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker went a combined 4-for-26 from the field.
Colorado is rated 84th in offensive efficiency and 36th in defensive efficiency in the KenPom.com ratings, and the Buffs' numbers are close to the line. Winning down the stretch is important to their NCAA chances. However, with six wins against the Sagarin top 50, there is reason to feel good about the résumé.
42. Akron Zips (Previous ranking: 41)
The game between Akron and Ohio in Athens was a classic MAC battle. The Zips beat Ohio in overtime after trailing most of the game, and Zeke Marshall, Demetrius Treadwell and Alex Abreu all played well, while reserve Jake Kretzer came in and hit five 3-point field goals and scored 19 points. Then Akron went on the road to Buffalo and got punched. The Bulls beat the Zips behind 26 points from underrated MAC star Javon McCrea. Akron isn't perfect, but this is an excellent mid-major team.
43. Oklahoma Sooners (Previous ranking: 54)
The Sooners hit 34-of-34 from the free throw line against Iowa State, an NCAA record-tying performance. This after a collapse of epic proportions at Texas, when the Sooners were up by 22 points with less than eight minutes remaining, then lost in overtime to the Longhorns. It was a devastating loss to a struggling team, one that the Sooners' win over Iowa State does not erase. But a ranking of No. 35 in the Sagarin ratings is a good indicator that Oklahoma is on the right side of the NCAA tournament Mendoza line.
44. California Golden Bears (Previous ranking: Not ranked)
The Bears have won seven in a row, and the metrics have taken notice. Cal is ranked No. 48 in the KenPom.com ratings, 43rd in the Sagarin ratings and 46th in the BPI rankings. Cal has a record of 5-6 against the BPI top 50 and 12-8 against the BPI top 100. Cal has an unimpressive nonconference résumé, but conference play has really helped the cause.
45. Butler Bulldogs (Previous ranking: 38)
Yikes. Butler looked pedestrian against the havoc that VCU put on them in Richmond on Saturday, losing by 32. Butler has lost three of five, and is ranked 60th in the KenPom.com ratings, 52nd in the Sagarin ratings, and 53rd in the BPI rankings. That is danger territory for an at-large bid, but Butler is going to the NCAA tournament. Wins over Temple, Gonzaga, Indiana, North Carolina and Marquette will seal it.
46. Belmont Bruins (Previous ranking: 45)
Belmont is 24-6 overall and 14-2 in the Ohio Valley Conference. Against Jacksonville State on Saturday, Belmont shot over 56 percent from the floor, made 23 of 24 free throws, and got 26 points and 5 assists from guard Kerron Johnson. Belmont is 18th in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage, and is fourth nationally in true shooting percentage.
47. Tennessee Volunteers (Previous ranking: 64)
The Vols had won six in a row, including wins over Kentucky and Florida, before losing to Georgia on Saturday. Tennessee shot only 38 percent from the field against the Bulldogs, and the only standout performance was by Jordan McRae, who busted out for 35 points on 8-of-11 from 3-point range. In his past four games, McRae has averaged 29 points and 6 rebounds per game, scoring 34 points against LSU and 27 points against Florida.
48. La Salle Explorers (Previous ranking: 57)
The Explorers have really good guards, but the glass is an issue of a profound nature for the Fighting Bill Rafterys. (Of course, Raftery never has problems with the glass, unless it is empty or late arriving.) La Salle is 207th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate and 203rd in defensive rebounding rate. Still, this is a good team that can play.
49. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Previous ranking: 55)
Southern Miss was a hot team for a time, but the Golden Eagles have not won a game against a team ranked in the BPI top 50, and have played only six games against the top 100. Southern Miss is ranked No. 61 in the Sagarin ratings, and has not beaten a single team in the Sagarin top 100, but has 15 wins against the bottom half of Division I.
Southern Miss beat East Carolina on Saturday, and Neil Watson scored 26 points while Jonathan Mills had his fifth double-double of the season with 11 points and 17 rebounds. Dwayne Davis had 17 points and nine rebounds against the Pirates.
50. Maryland Terrapins (Previous ranking: 44)
The Terps have been up and down this season, but not much has changed from last week, as Maryland still has only two wins against the BPI top 50, against five losses. Maryland is 3-6 against the BPI top 100, and has won only five of its past 10 games, including losses to some less-than-powerful teams.
Maryland's NCAA hopes rest upon upcoming games against North Carolina and Virginia, and the ACC tournament. Right now, Maryland has some significant work to do, because the nonconference schedule was not helpful.
51. Baylor Bears (Previous ranking: 43)
The Bears had a brutal ending to their game against Kansas State in Waco on Saturday. With the score tied with one second remaining, and having to inbound the ball under its own basket, Baylor threw the ball the length of the court and out of bounds. That is a violation, giving the ball to Kansas State in the same throw-in spot. Rodney McGruder hit a 3 to win the game, and Baylor dropped to 17-12 and 8-8 in the Big 12. Baylor has lost four of five and seven of 10, and is not looking like an NCAA tournament team.
52. Iowa Hawkeyes (Previous ranking: 51)
Iowa is an odd case. The metrics love the Hawkeyes, and stick with them. Iowa has lost nine of 16 games, and really struggles to shoot the ball consistently. Iowa has an effective field goal percentage of 46.6 percent, which is 266th in Division I. In addition, Iowa has had problems making the 3-point shot. Iowa shoots 29.8 percent from 3, which is 317th in Division I.
53. Temple Owls (Previous ranking: 47)
The Owls are 21-8 and 9-5 in Atlantic 10 play. Temple beat Rhode Island over the weekend behind 24 points by Khalif Wyatt and 16 points and 10 rebounds by Jake O'Brien. Temple has won five in a row, and has beaten Syracuse, Saint Louis, Villanova, Dayton and La Salle, all teams displayed prominently in The Bilas Index. The Owls finish conference play at home against VCU, a game that offers a tremendous opportunity for the Owls.
54. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Previous ranking: 53)
The Blue Raiders are 27-4 and have beaten only one team in the BPI top 50, and played only four games in the BPI top 100. Middle Tennessee has gaudy defensive numbers, and has a 19-1 conference record.
Against Western Kentucky on the road. JT Sulton, who averages 6.4 points per game, had 17 points and 7 rebounds. The main area that can cause Middle Tennessee trouble is turnovers. The Blue Raiders cough up the ball on 21 percent of their possessions, 236th in the nation.
55. Arizona State Sun Devils (Previous ranking: 54)
It was a rough week in Los Angeles for Arizona State. First there was an overtime loss at Pauley Pavilion to UCLA on Wednesday, then a one-point loss at USC on Saturday that probably leaves the Sun Devils on the outside of the dreaded bubble. Arizona State is 20-8 and 9-8 in Pac-12 play, with a big game left against Arizona before the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas.
56. Villanova Wildcats (Previous ranking: 50)
Before Sunday's loss at Pitt, Villanova had a week to prepare, or stew, after essentially giving the game away to Seton Hall in New Jersey. The Wildcats did not guard the 3-point line, and allowed Seton Hall to shoot 21 treys and make a whopping 13 of them. Playing the next game at Pittsburgh, where Jay Wright has never won, is not a recipe for getting back up off of the deck, and a late 3 by Pitt's James Robinson sent the game to overtime before the Panthers eventually pulled it out.
Villanova is good defensively, but rates as the 105th-best offense in the country.
57. Stanford Cardinal (Previous ranking: 56)
The Cardinal had opportunities to beat Colorado in what was a terrific game, but Dwight Powell still had the ball in his hands as he dunked it just after the buzzer. One of the unsung heroes for Stanford has been Josh Huestis. He is not a proficient scorer, but Huestis is a double-figure rebounder and a very good defender.
Stanford has lost five of its past seven games, and has had some opportunities for quality wins. The Cardinal are shooting 44.5 percent from inside the arc, which ranks 290th in the nation. Stanford has played 21 of its games against teams in the BPI top 100.
58. Ole Miss Rebels (Previous ranking: 52)
The Bilastrator was at a loss for words (OK, maybe he wasn't) upon learning of the Rebels' Saturday loss to Mississippi State. The Rebels have Marshall Henderson, Murphy Holloway and Nick Williams, but could not overcome a very depleted Mississippi State team. Ole Miss has lost six of 10, and has beaten only one team in the BPI top 50 (Missouri). Against some of the other bubble teams, Ole Miss is going to have a hard time making a strong case.
59. Alabama Crimson Tide (Previous ranking: 58)
The Tide lost to Florida in Gainesville on Saturday, and simply could not figure out a way to score efficiently. Alabama shot 40 percent from the floor, and only went 4-of-15 from the 3-point line. The game was lost on the free throw line, as Florida lived there, shooting 26 foul shots, while Alabama only had 10 attempts. Alabama has lost two of three and is ranked 159th in overall offensive efficiency by KenPom.com.
60. Boise State Broncos (Previous ranking: 61)
On a Saturday of great performances, the one put forth by Boise State's Derrick Marks should not be overlooked. Marks scored 38 points on 13-of-18 shooting against Colorado State, and also had 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in the Broncos' win. Boise State is 20-8 with an offense rated in the top 25 of the KenPom.com ratings, but its defense is rated at No. 102.
61. Arkansas Razorbacks (Previous ranking: 46)
The Razorbacks' home win over Kentucky was as physical as almost any game played Saturday, and Arkansas was all over Kentucky from the opening tip. The Razorbacks forced turnovers and scored off of them. Junior swingman Coty Clarke was the catalyst, with 14 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals. Without those turnovers, however, Arkansas had a tough time scoring.
Arkansas has wins over Missouri, Tennessee, Florida and Oklahoma, but the metrics do not indicate an efficient team. This team wins by causing chaos, but The Bilastrator doubts that it will be able to successfully create chaos on a neutral court.
62. Ohio Bobcats (Previous ranking: 63)
The Bobcats bounced back from a tough overtime loss to Akron this week and beat Bowling Green. Ohio got terrific performances from Reggie Keely and Nick Kellogg, who scored 21 and 16 points, respectively. Ohio is very good at the guard spots, and D.J. Cooper is a special talent who is capable of taking over in an NCAA tournament game.
63. Davidson Wildcats (Previous ranking: 62)
The Wildcats are 23-7, having won 17 of their 18 SoCon games. Davidson has very good size, and some very skilled and competitive older players who simply know how to play. Davidson leads the nation in free throw shooting accuracy, at 81 percent.
64. Providence Friars (Previous ranking: 60)
The Friars are 16-12 and 8-8 in the Big East, which is the same record as Baylor has in the Big 12. The difference is that Providence is on an upswing and winning, while Baylor is losing. Providence has won six of seven, the only loss being at Syracuse. Providence won't have quite enough to make it into the NCAA tournament without winning the Big East tournament.
65. Bucknell Bison (Previous ranking: 59)
The Bison continue to take care of the ball, and have the third-lowest turnover percentage in the nation, and Bucknell does a great job of limiting opponents to one shot, ranking second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. To make the NCAA tournament and pull an upset once it gets there, Bucknell will have to win the Patriot League title.
66. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Previous ranking: 67)
Louisiana Tech has had a tremendous season, and jumped into the national rankings. The Bulldogs are unbeaten in the WAC at 16-0 and are 26-3 overall with two games to go in the regular season. Against San Jose State on Saturday, Louisiana Tech held the Spartans to 32 percent shooting and forced 21 turnovers. This is a terrific defensive team.
67. Northern Iowa Panthers (Previous ranking: 66)
Northern Iowa has won seven of nine, and controls the tempo. Early in the season, the Panthers played a tough schedule and had legit chances to win. Absent winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, Northern Iowa will be playing in a secondary postseason event, but this is a good, well-coached team.
68. Dayton Flyers (Previous ranking: NR)
The Flyers are probably not long for The Bilas Index, as Dayton has not won a single game against the BPI top 50 (0-4). But Dayton has won four games against the BPI top 100, and has played 11 such games.
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Jay Bilas
College Basketball analyst
Archive
College basketball analyst for ESPN and ESPN Insider
Played and coached at Duke
Practicing attorney
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