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They beat Duke without Ryan Kelly, so I could argue that win, decisive as it was, is overblown in the public eye.
>>1. Simply put, Wake is much better than PSU. Wake beat >Miami, >>beat State, beat Virginia. Almost beat Duke, almost beat >>UConn. Penn State's second best win after Michigan is >>Bucknell. Their only decent near-win was against Iowa at >home. > >Miami has also dropped to FGCU and indiana state. Say what >you want, but PSU is a power conference school.
Addressed later. And no, both FGCU and Indiana State have a much higher BPI than Penn State. Penn State is barely Top 200.
>>2. Miami has a tougher RPI strength of schedule than >Michigan. >>On paper, this makes little sense, because the Big 10 has >more >>great teams than the ACC... but it has to do with the >>toughness of Michigan's non-conference schedule. They do >have >>big games, but they also have some serious cupcakes. Miami's >>played 16 top 100 teams, whereas Michigan has only played >14, >>and Miami is 13-3 to Michigan's 10-4. > >after Duke, Miami's next best wins are NC state and michigan >state, and after that there is nothing. Michigan also beat >those teams, beat Minnesota and Illinois on the road, K-State >and Pittsburgh at neutral site, and Ohio State.
I didn't make the strength of schedule, dude, lol. The committee will look at that number. It's black and white.
>>3. The committee considers how one closes the year, and >>currently, Miami is 10-2 in their last twelve, whereas >>Michigan is 8-4.
^^^ this shouldn't be overlooked. Whether it's fair or not, they do it.
>>4. Miami's worst loss, against Florida Gulf Coast, came >>without Durand Scott, their senior leader, which the >committee >>will consider. Not to mention, if FGCU makes the tourney by >>winning the Sun Belt Tournament (quite likely-- they're >second >>in the conference), that makes Miami look even better. > >quite likely? or quite possible? they have lossES to teams >in the bottom half of the league, not just one aberrant loss >like M's PSU loss.
I'm just saying, as a casual follower of the Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville and UNF both in my hometown), FGCU is considered one of two teams likely to make it. They played Miami, Duke, VCU, and even gave Iowa State a tough game on the road. They're more battle tested than Mercer, and I like their odds.
>>5. Even if you only consider Top 25 games and not the rest, >>Miami is 5-2 against the Top 25, and Michigan is 5-3. At >>worst, they're fairly equivalent if you only want to >consider >>that. > >5-2? who are those 7 ranked teams? ranked now, or at the >time of the game? because michigan has 3 wins over teams that >were top 10 at the time, and the K-State and Pittsburgh >neutral court wins cannot be ignored, as those teams have >turned out to be legit sweet 16 contenders. Miami's neutral >court tournament came with losses to ISU and an Arizona team >that has hit a wall.
Those losses were early in the year for the U. If I recall, it's wins against RPI Top 25, not ranked teams. They care about their system, not rankings as much.
>>I'm not saying Miami SHOULD be above Michigan, even though I >>think Miami is a better team. > >do you really, or is that because they beat Duke? because >their resume doesnt stack up.
I do, yes. Right now, I believe they are playing better. I like their experience going into the tournament, they have a backcourt that will be very hard for even the elite teams to stop, and they have a terrific coach. They share the ball well, they are pesky on D, and Kadji is a 6'10 big who can shoot the 3 and spread defenses in a ridiculous manner. I think Michigan has a higher potential, but I'm sure you'll agree that consistency has been an issue at times.
And whether you agree or I agree on "who is better," the RPI is what the committee looks at. Better strength of schedule, better non-conference strength of schedule, more games and wins against the RPI Top 100, better record in the last 12 games, and their worst loss was without their senior leader. Michigan has more NBA talent and a larger number of sexy marquee wins, but the committee would side with Miami over Michigan, due to the stats.
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