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Lobby Okay Sports topic #2139833

Subject: "More fun with adv. metrics: College QB's & the passes they throw" Previous topic | Next topic
wallysmith
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Fri Mar-01-13 03:28 PM

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"More fun with adv. metrics: College QB's & the passes they throw"


  

          

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/2/28/4036850/adjusted-completion-percentages-collin-klein-matt-barkley

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
it's a start, but i'm not particularly thrilled by it
Mar 01st 2013
1
Oh absolutely.
Mar 01st 2013
2
      i'm a little sad they didn't do that
Mar 01st 2013
3

thejerseytornado
Member since Dec 24th 2005
26205 posts
Fri Mar-01-13 03:59 PM

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1. "it's a start, but i'm not particularly thrilled by it"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

too many other things to adjust for when adjusting for pass distance. a fun start, though.

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It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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wallysmith
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Fri Mar-01-13 05:45 PM

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2. "Oh absolutely."
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

Way too many moving variables to use this as a real basis, but at least the article makes that clear too. Still fun to see the pass attempt breakdown by distance (and completion rate) though.

  

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thejerseytornado
Member since Dec 24th 2005
26205 posts
Fri Mar-01-13 06:09 PM

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3. "i'm a little sad they didn't do that"
In response to Reply # 2


  

          

simply add a "in the pocket" variable to resolve scrambles that led to broken plays (which, on first glance, helps explain the absurd rate of success for running QBs in their adjusted completion percentage) and/or a target type (RB/WR/TE)

and some of their comments strike me as bad interpretations to fit a fun narrative (Barkley sucks, Klein is great!). Barkley's <10 yard passing completion was poor, but he was above average 15-25 yards. a couple bullet points down, they criticize Geno Smith for his subpar 15-25 yards, shouldn't they give barkley credit there then?

there's the obvious comparison to his replacement that shows barkley was better and that it might have been the other players/playbook that explains his poor short passing form, as Wittek was across the board worse than barkley.

and i'm not necessarily a barkley fan, but this is the concern that a flawed mechanism that appears to be an improvement in detail leads to bad conclusions--if one makes conclusions off of it.

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It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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