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Subject: "How Important is the '+/-' Stat to you?" Previous topic | Next topic
UpNorth
Member since Aug 23rd 2011
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Fri Jan-18-13 11:37 AM

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"How Important is the '+/-' Stat to you?"


          

Hockey heads?

Nba?

Not sure what other sports that stat can be applied to other then those two for now.

-------------
I'll try my best to read, write and comprehend.

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
means more to me for hockey than hoops
Jan 18th 2013
1
hockey is so far behind on metric stats, more don cherry effect
Jan 18th 2013
31
in the NBA it's awesome for 5-man units, less awesome for individuals
Jan 18th 2013
2
came here to mention 5-man units
Jan 18th 2013
3
it's important when it supports my agendas
Jan 18th 2013
4
^^^
Jan 18th 2013
7
hahaha
Jan 18th 2013
12
beautiful....
Jan 18th 2013
27
It means absolutely nothing in basketball
Jan 18th 2013
5
you don't even subscribe to 5-man +/-? just curious here...
Jan 18th 2013
6
it's not in the boxscore.
Jan 18th 2013
8
aaahhahhahhaaaa
Jan 18th 2013
9
i'm highly suspicious of it for 2 reasons
Jan 18th 2013
10
      agree completely w/ #2, but I think larger sample size = solution there
Jan 18th 2013
11
      lol wut
Jan 18th 2013
15
      I'd assume you, of all people, would know how Science works...
Jan 18th 2013
17
           LOL
Jan 18th 2013
19
                or maybe I'm just comfortable enough in my intellect to use it correct?
Jan 18th 2013
20
                     advanced stats aren't proofs of shit and don't have to be theory driven
Jan 18th 2013
22
                          Andray Blatche is 9th in PER -- does this mean he's 9th most efficient?
Jan 18th 2013
24
      not sure 5 man rotations really reach the sample size u need
Jan 18th 2013
18
           I mean, if I was a team I'd ask coach to use a rotation I could analyze
Jan 18th 2013
21
                i see you've decided to just swing at everyone in here...
Jan 18th 2013
23
                     I'm just asking questions to form discussion, no more serious than that
Jan 18th 2013
25
      everyone plays the same teams
Jan 18th 2013
14
           but not everyone plays the same lineups
Jan 18th 2013
16
LOL
Jan 18th 2013
13
no, it means something over time and it means something for units
Jan 18th 2013
32
      That's the the thing, most NBA teams don't play set units for an...
Jan 18th 2013
33
advanced metrics:OKS::okayscience:GD
Jan 18th 2013
26
^^^Won't acknowledge that vaccinations are the REAL WMDs
Jan 18th 2013
28
we can't really match gd on either extreme
Jan 18th 2013
29
All it really says is that you play in offensive situations for a good t...
Jan 18th 2013
30

cgonz00cc
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Fri Jan-18-13 11:43 AM

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1. "means more to me for hockey than hoops"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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ConcreteCharlie
Member since Nov 21st 2002
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Fri Jan-18-13 04:46 PM

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31. "hockey is so far behind on metric stats, more don cherry effect"
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

every time someone points out something stubborn, stupid, antiquated or reactionary in hockey, i chalk it up to the cherry effect. if some of these guys commanded an army, they'd still be lining up, marching forward and firing.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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celery77
Member since Aug 04th 2005
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Fri Jan-18-13 11:44 AM

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2. "in the NBA it's awesome for 5-man units, less awesome for individuals"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I also always liked it in hockey because it generally aligned with the best players, so it had to have SOMETHING.

I distinctly remember the first year Igor Larionov was on the Sharks ('93-'94) where the team set an NHL record for a turnaround between seasons (they had just set the NHL record for losses the year prior with 71, so really they could only go up from there...) and the roster was good, not great -- classic 8th seed material -- but there was ONE player who had a +/- that popped out and it was Igor Larionov. and it's not hard to figure out why, he was probably the best, most complete player on that roster (which is probably why he ended up a long-time Scotty Bowman Red Wing, keeping that team elite by anchoring their 3rd line for years). so yeah, with hockey you have to adjust *a little* for team performance but in my time watching the sport it always had a way of neatly coinciding in a positive (or negative) fashion with the most complete (/incomplete) players in the game.

___________

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AnonymousCoward
Member since Sep 17th 2002
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Fri Jan-18-13 11:47 AM

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3. "came here to mention 5-man units"
In response to Reply # 2
Fri Jan-18-13 11:48 AM by AnonymousCoward

  

          

I think it works better as a coaching tool than an assessment of value.

http://clydefrazierapproves.com/
http://stylepoints.tumblr.com/

"Like 4 out of 5 things you say on OKP offend me." -FireBrand

  

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soundsop
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:25 PM

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4. "it's important when it supports my agendas"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

otherwise, i ignore/downplay it

  

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haj20
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:33 PM

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7. "^^^"
In response to Reply # 4


          

_________________________

  

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jrocc
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12. "hahaha"
In response to Reply # 4


          

  

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LegacyNS
Member since Jan 16th 2004
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Fri Jan-18-13 04:00 PM

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27. "beautiful...."
In response to Reply # 4


  

          


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
<---- 5....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlgiritpmfo

=======================================
Occupy Big Government..

Fannie, Freddie dole out big bonuses
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/67292.html

  

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ThaTruth
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:27 PM

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5. "It means absolutely nothing in basketball"
In response to Reply # 0


          

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

  

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celery77
Member since Aug 04th 2005
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:29 PM

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6. "you don't even subscribe to 5-man +/-? just curious here..."
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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thejerseytornado
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:38 PM

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8. "it's not in the boxscore."
In response to Reply # 6


  

          


-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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celery77
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:39 PM

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9. "aaahhahhahhaaaa"
In response to Reply # 8


  

          

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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rob
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Fri Jan-18-13 01:54 PM

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10. "i'm highly suspicious of it for 2 reasons"
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

1) the thunder +/- units back a few years ago were not good but you could see where it was going watching the play...

2) even though you are a step removed from letting the +/- of an individual be determined by the effectiveness of his teammates....you still have to contend with who they're facing as opponents, differences in possessions depending on when people get in the game, and then dwindling sample sizes. it doesn't seem to me to be any different than slapping a number on "did you see them go on that run at the end of the half?"

it may be that there is some highly awesome math going on behind this that i haven't considered but +/- doesn't seem to me like doing more than micromanaging a scoreboard.

  

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celery77
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Fri Jan-18-13 02:12 PM

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11. "agree completely w/ #2, but I think larger sample size = solution there"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

now, you also have the problem where maybe a coach uses inconsistent rotations, so then it's going to be a problem again, but if you have a 5-man unit like Kendrick Perkins + Serge Ibaka + Russy + KD + Kevin Martin who get a lot of tick in a lot of games, and you compare that to the starting unit of the same 5-man group only with Sefalosha instead, I'd think that would reveal something about those two units, no?

and I think all advanced stats are only support for traditional eyeball tests (it's why I know ThaTruth isn't bullshitting even when he hates on advanced stats, he understands basketball + can talk about it w/o having to rely on them).

but yeah -- every advanced stat is just support for a theory, none of them are "proofs" of anything.

___________

HOPE!
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https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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Guinness
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15. "lol wut"
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

>every advanced stat is just support for a theory,
>none of them are "proofs" of anything.

this is the second time you've spewed this madness.

  

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celery77
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:00 PM

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17. "I'd assume you, of all people, would know how Science works..."
In response to Reply # 15


  

          

everything's a theory, stats are just evidence to support them

that's not "nonsense," that's how rational thinking works...

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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Guinness
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19. "LOL"
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

you're obviously using "theory" in the same pejorative way that creationists do.

  

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celery77
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:07 PM

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20. "or maybe I'm just comfortable enough in my intellect to use it correct?"
In response to Reply # 19


  

          

no need to be so defensive, Guinny -- I have faith rational thinkers know how to rationally read.

FAITH!

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
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thejerseytornado
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:34 PM

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22. "advanced stats aren't proofs of shit and don't have to be theory driven"
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

they're numbers that quantify and simplify. how you use them is the moment where theory gets involved. I think that's where he's mad because you end up conflating the statistic and its application in a model/argument.

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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celery77
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:42 PM

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24. "Andray Blatche is 9th in PER -- does this mean he's 9th most efficient?"
In response to Reply # 22


  

          

they're just stats with differing value as far as what they actually illuminate about the game.

or do I really need to start pointing out how some people view the black incarceration rate as a 'proof' about the 'black race'? because you and I both know there are people who consider that an 'insight.'

clunky analogy, I know, but it says what I want to say -- a stat is only as useful as the person who's interpreting it. 'true shooting %' might be an improved measurement from basic FG%, but then again show me a box score where one team shot 55% and the other team shot 40% and I can probably correctly predict who won an overwhelming majority of the time without looking at the score.

so yeah -- stats are only as useful as the people interpreting them. they are, in a rational approach, interpretive.

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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thejerseytornado
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:04 PM

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18. "not sure 5 man rotations really reach the sample size u need"
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

but you can adjust O-rating and D-rating by opponent quality pretty easily.

I guess you could rank all of the 5 man rotations and do something like sagarin does to adjust, but that's getting really complicated and a lot of 5 man rotations aren't together that much.

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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celery77
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:11 PM

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21. "I mean, if I was a team I'd ask coach to use a rotation I could analyze"
In response to Reply # 18


  

          

and if I was analyzing other teams that have inconsistent rotations, I wouldn't put too much stock into it.

but if I saw that coach was putting out a 5-man rotation that was consistently on either the '+' or the '-' I'd talk to him about it. as far as fans are concerned, you really only need that info if you're gambling or if you're trying to predict the future. I find it's much easier as a fan to see who wins and who doesn't when the final scores are put in the paper the next morning.

oh

and I actually watch 48m basketball games, and if you can't see who is causing / when runs are occurring, then you probably need to study the game more. and anyway once playoffs roll around any team moving past the 1st round is going to have a recognizable rotation with searchable stats. I just believe that will be true from now until they revamp how the playoffs work.

___________

HOPE!
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https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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thejerseytornado
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:40 PM

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23. "i see you've decided to just swing at everyone in here..."
In response to Reply # 21


  

          

>and I actually watch 48m basketball games, and if you can't
>see who is causing / when runs are occurring, then you
>probably need to study the game more. and anyway once
>playoffs roll around any team moving past the 1st round is
>going to have a recognizable rotation with searchable stats.
>I just believe that will be true from now until they revamp
>how the playoffs work.

like what the fuck is your damn point with this? +/- is a bad one person stat. The 5 man rotations don't have many minutes together: http://www.82games.com/0910/09BOS2.HTM#5man

There are only one or two of those with enough minutes for me to even consider starting to weight them by anything beyond a very basic measure of the strength of opponent, and that's for Rondo, a guy who played 75% of the minutes that season. So yeah, you could weight starting units and maybe one or two other units, but I doubt you could get any other estimation technique to be stable with those small sample sizes.

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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celery77
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25. "I'm just asking questions to form discussion, no more serious than that"
In response to Reply # 23


  

          

and I ask questions of the people in here because I learn from reading a lot of the people in here that understand more on the topic than I do. no more serious than that, promise...

anyway -- yeah, I've looked at those 82 games #s before and I've struggled to draw anything great from them. which leads directly back to the question in the original post -- how much value do people place on these stats?

but part of my question is what would people want to see from the stats? if the stats showed that the Kevin Martin @ SG lineup is superior to the Thabo Sefalosha @ SG for OKC, would that lead you to believe that OKC should be starting Kevin Martin? would that lead you to believe that the Boston Celtics should attempt a trade for Kevin Martin? I mean, it's just asking questions to understand the value of these #s...

___________

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jrocc
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14. "everyone plays the same teams"
In response to Reply # 10


          

so are you saying that it would mean more to say what their +/- was for the whole season as opposed to game by game?

  

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rob
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16. "but not everyone plays the same lineups"
In response to Reply # 14


  

          

  

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Guinness
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13. "LOL"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

  

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ConcreteCharlie
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Fri Jan-18-13 04:48 PM

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32. "no, it means something over time and it means something for units"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

you want to see the effect on a game that a five man unit has for sure and +/- is a fair indicator, especially if they match up fairly consistently against a particular kind of opposing unit (e.g. starting five, second units, high tempo, shooting, etc).

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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ThaTruth
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33. "That's the the thing, most NBA teams don't play set units for an..."
In response to Reply # 32


          

extended period of times during games and that what makes it useless. Obviously the starters on good teams are going have good numbers and the starters on bad teams aren't. But trying to break it down as far as individual players is silly and useless.

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

  

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AnonymousCoward
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Fri Jan-18-13 03:57 PM

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26. "advanced metrics:OKS::okayscience:GD"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

http://clydefrazierapproves.com/
http://stylepoints.tumblr.com/

"Like 4 out of 5 things you say on OKP offend me." -FireBrand

  

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mrhood75
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28. "^^^Won't acknowledge that vaccinations are the REAL WMDs"
In response to Reply # 26


  

          

DID YOU WATCH THE VIDEO?!?!?!?!?!???

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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rob
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29. "we can't really match gd on either extreme"
In response to Reply # 26


  

          

we probably average out the same but the posting pool gives them some absolute brilliance in them posts to balance out some of the absolutely astonishing ignorance.

rarely is anyone here on some next-level sports shit, but no one here denies the existence of shot charts either.

  

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ConcreteCharlie
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Fri Jan-18-13 04:45 PM

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30. "All it really says is that you play in offensive situations for a good t..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

In both sports, really.

I think over time good two-way players are going to come out with good numbers, but in a given season it means nothing. Kind of like win/loss records for pitchers, lots of aberrations in given seasons but it does tell a story over time.

It's a stronger stat in hockey than basketball for sure. There are so many garbage points and little runs in basketball that it really doesn't say all that much.

I do think in basketball it's telling when a good scorer on a decent (or better) team has a bad +/-. It says some combination of his defense, shot selection, ball control and team play are not up to par.

In hockey I think you see that a lot but then you find out the guy doesn't play the PK (where you can ONLY get +s) and that he has had some tough breaks or a bad partner/line or whatever. Sometimes it's telling, but often it's not. Again, if it happens over time, OK, then that guy has those kind of problems. Jack Johnson springs to mind, was on good, defensively sound teams and put up good offensive numbers of his own. But his +/- lagged. He had a lot of bad turnovers, he missed the net a lot, he didn't play a simple game and his defense down low was just adequate. So he kind of illustrates how players in both sports can wind up with worse +/-s than one might expect.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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