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Subject: "Lionel Hollins goes in on analytics, nerds attack" Previous topic | Next topic
ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
42541 posts
Fri Jan-11-13 06:47 PM

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"Lionel Hollins goes in on analytics, nerds attack"


  

          

SB Nation article: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/1/1...interview-2012

Kinda interesting after they just hired Hollinger...Here's what some twitter guys commented:

Kevin Pelton@kpelton
Here's what's sad to me about Lionel Hollins' comments: He thinks statistical analysis has different goals than he does.
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Haralabos Voulgaris@haralabob
This Lionel Hollins interview is just puzzling, his reasoning for why scoring is down is nonsense. Also bemoans "stats" and "analysis" cont
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Haralabos Voulgaris@haralabob
but then mentions the Houston Rockets are scoring a lot. I wonder if he understands why they are scoring a lot.
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Brett Koremenos@BKoremenos
The Lionel Hollins interview has pretty much confirmed all the suspicions I've had about how he handles his team. Glad he's getting exposed.
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Brett Koremenos@BKoremenos
So to sum up the Hollins interview, he's not a strategist and he's not open to advanced stats. Great combination for today's NBA.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
this has been such a war of atrition
Jan 11th 2013
1
Ignorant is the new black
Jan 11th 2013
2
wat?
Jan 11th 2013
4
No really, I'm still waiting on an explanation for this.
Jan 14th 2013
72
      *arms folded, tapping foot*
Jan 14th 2013
73
           Still waiting.
Jan 15th 2013
74
                RE: Still waiting.
Jan 15th 2013
75
                     Don't throw him a lifeline, I wanted that poster to explain in the...
Jan 15th 2013
76
                          http://kimkardashian.celebuzz.com/2012/07/13/white-is-the-new-black/
Jan 15th 2013
77
                               lol
Jan 15th 2013
81
that was sad.
Jan 11th 2013
3
He didn't really "go in" on analytics, he just told ThaTruth, it can't.....
Jan 11th 2013
5
So you didn't read the article then?
Jan 11th 2013
6
      Yeah I did...
Jan 11th 2013
9
           Depends what team
Jan 15th 2013
104
RE: Lionel Hollins goes in on analytics, nerds attack
Jan 11th 2013
7
LOL
Jan 11th 2013
8
do people still actually do this in the NBA?
Jan 12th 2013
27
      Lmao
Jan 12th 2013
28
           RE: Lmao
Jan 12th 2013
44
                Rudy wants to play anywhere where he can be paid.
Jan 12th 2013
48
                You don't rob a bank, beat the trial, the. Give the $ back
Jan 12th 2013
50
                     RE: You don't rob a bank, beat the trial, the. Give the $ back
Jan 12th 2013
54
                          2 major errors in your thinking
Jan 12th 2013
55
                               RE: 2 major errors in your thinking
Jan 12th 2013
56
                                    RE: 2 major errors in your thinking
Jan 12th 2013
57
                                    You do realize this is basketball and not football right?
Jan 12th 2013
58
                                    RE: You do realize this is basketball and not football right?
Jan 12th 2013
                                    RE: You do realize this is basketball and not football right?
Jan 12th 2013
61
                                    lolz this is where i bow out and try to get some laundry done.
Jan 12th 2013
62
                                    football contracts are restructured because they're not guaranteed
Jan 12th 2013
60
                                    RE: football contracts are restructured because they're not guaranteed
Jan 12th 2013
63
                                         no one is going to do it man give it up
Jan 12th 2013
66
                                    You going in tomorrow to beg your bosses for a pay cut?
Aug 13th 2019
121
Nobody that wins games cares about this shit. Sorry nerds. Blog & cry.
Jan 11th 2013
10
^^^
Jan 11th 2013
11
chill Morey used it to get 7th seed
Jan 11th 2013
12
      He's always gonna use it to get the 7th seed
Jan 11th 2013
13
           Lulz at this flat earth circle jerk
Jan 11th 2013
14
                Your mid range jumper of a reply fell flat and to the right
Jan 11th 2013
15
                This was one of the weirdest circle jerks
Jan 12th 2013
23
Hmmm.. Another case of trying to make a Black coach look incompetent
Jan 11th 2013
16
Hollins might be a fine coach, but he'd be a shit GM.
Jan 11th 2013
17
^^^ great reply that folks will ignore.
Jan 11th 2013
20
Great post.
Jan 12th 2013
26
I disagree.
Jan 12th 2013
30
My argument isn't that it is impossible for Memphis.
Jan 12th 2013
49
thats not completely true...
Jan 12th 2013
33
i wouldn't argue analytics with a nonbeliever...
Jan 11th 2013
18
How many titles has Morey won?
Jan 11th 2013
19
Morey isn't the only guy that uses it doofball
Jan 12th 2013
21
Spurs used metrics to see how many games they should hold out...
Jan 12th 2013
31
      This is about as loud and wrong you've been
Jan 12th 2013
36
      Lol
Jan 12th 2013
53
you post like a nigga who failed fractions.
Jan 12th 2013
22
lmao, awesome
Jan 12th 2013
24
my argument is that even "advanced stats" are still too basic
Jan 12th 2013
35
some of these advanced stats are dumb, tho
Jan 15th 2013
96
      agreed ...
Jan 15th 2013
108
Unfortunately it seems like analytics is the next front on race warz
Jan 12th 2013
25
Harabalos makes more money betting nba than anyone else alive
Jan 12th 2013
29
Advanced metrics and traditional scouting go hand-in-hand
Jan 12th 2013
32
Pretty much
Jan 12th 2013
34
right, even morey said it was funny bc AS confirmed a lot of what they
Jan 12th 2013
37
you're 100% correct, of course, but here's the thing :
Jan 12th 2013
38
      I hear you but what I'm referring to is the labeling of each 'party'
Jan 12th 2013
39
           Stat guys only get dismissive when stats get ignored.
Jan 12th 2013
40
           ^^^^^^^
Jan 12th 2013
41
           gotcha. we're on the same page here.
Jan 12th 2013
42
           like everything on this board lines are drawn in the sand over agendas
Jan 12th 2013
52
                why are so many people just gonna be wrong here?
Jan 12th 2013
59
                gotta love these replies....
Jan 12th 2013
64
                     about how people generally use stats here
Jan 12th 2013
65
                          um read some of the comments in here if you get the chance
Jan 12th 2013
67
                               Ive read the replies here and countless in other posts
Jan 12th 2013
68
                                    it's bizarre.
Jan 12th 2013
69
                                         I disagree with you about heart and leadership being bs
Jan 12th 2013
70
                                              I think his point is that when they point at specific players
Jan 15th 2013
79
                                                   There's a reason I left clutch out of my post. It's semi-quantifiable
Jan 15th 2013
83
                                                        people used to say that about clutch
Jan 15th 2013
84
                                                             how far along are advanced stats in soccer
Jan 15th 2013
89
                                                                  pretty far behind
Jan 15th 2013
98
                lulz.
Jan 12th 2013
71
                     the really funny thing is, hadoop and distributed computing
Jan 15th 2013
80
Man, fuck this post
Jan 12th 2013
43
haha, what up stah?
Jan 12th 2013
45
      RE: haha, what up stah?
Jan 12th 2013
46
           yeah O putting that work in. shoulda came here.
Jan 12th 2013
47
                RE: yeah O putting that work in. shoulda came here.
Jan 12th 2013
51
Does baseball give us a timeline for this?
Jan 15th 2013
78
*likes*
Jan 15th 2013
87
^^^ and then there's this.
Jan 15th 2013
92
      The rough tries at it in baseball resulted in useful stereotypes
Jan 15th 2013
105
I just don't know how somebody could care enough about basketball
Jan 15th 2013
82
then there's that
Jan 15th 2013
85
I like this answer
Jan 15th 2013
102
nghs hate being wrong
Jan 15th 2013
86
but its middle school math
Jan 15th 2013
88
LOL
Jan 15th 2013
90
so you're admitting you plagiarize your data
Jan 15th 2013
91
      NOPE.
Jan 15th 2013
93
           oh i get it.
Jan 15th 2013
94
           If the formula is transparent and makes sense, who cares who made it
Jan 15th 2013
99
           if every american understood half of basketball-reference
Jan 15th 2013
100
                LOL at you bozos taking my comments to heart
Jan 15th 2013
101
                     pleaes ,stop trollign us Dude thanks
Jan 15th 2013
103
                     you got into this advanced analytics shit to troll Mamba posts
Jan 16th 2013
109
                          stop trollign me ,Bro
Jan 16th 2013
112
                     Too late to plea-cop now
Jan 15th 2013
106
                          want to know how you been on OKS too long
Jan 16th 2013
111
           lol
Jan 16th 2013
113
lol
Jan 15th 2013
107
      just for you son
Jan 16th 2013
110
The Biggest Problem I Have With Some Advanced Stats
Jan 15th 2013
95
lulz
Jan 15th 2013
97
coach's job to motivate (c) Feel, GM's job to analyze = non-issue here
Jan 16th 2013
114
not true.
Jan 16th 2013
115
yeah, his job to communicate + facilitate <--- still doesn't need math
Jan 16th 2013
116
      Also.
Jan 16th 2013
117
Except almost no coaches see it that way right today
Aug 16th 2019
123
      coaches always evaluated numbers. LoL
Aug 16th 2019
124
LOL
Jan 30th 2013
118
RE: Lionel Hollins goes in on analytics, nerds attack
May 29th 2018
119
so did Hollinger quietly slip out the back door in Memphis or what?
Aug 13th 2019
120
Slickest exit ever. No fanfare at all.
Aug 15th 2019
122

hardware
Member since May 22nd 2007
42017 posts
Fri Jan-11-13 07:23 PM

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1. "this has been such a war of atrition"
In response to Reply # 0


          

and he's gonna lose

he seems to think everybody is telling him to only use stats
its like trying to explain what channel the dvd player is supposed to be on to your grandma

  

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bshelly
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Fri Jan-11-13 07:29 PM

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2. "Ignorant is the new black"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

  

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ThaTruth
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Fri Jan-11-13 08:14 PM

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4. "wat?"
In response to Reply # 2


  

          

  

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ThaTruth
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Mon Jan-14-13 02:50 PM

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72. "No really, I'm still waiting on an explanation for this."
In response to Reply # 2


  

          

  

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ThaTruth
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Mon Jan-14-13 05:58 PM

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73. "*arms folded, tapping foot*"
In response to Reply # 72


  

          

  

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ThaTruth
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Tue Jan-15-13 09:45 AM

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74. "Still waiting."
In response to Reply # 73


  

          

  

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Kungset
Member since Mar 29th 2004
6341 posts
Tue Jan-15-13 09:48 AM

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75. "RE: Still waiting."
In response to Reply # 74


  

          

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_new_black

  

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ThaTruth
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Tue Jan-15-13 10:05 AM

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76. "Don't throw him a lifeline, I wanted that poster to explain in the..."
In response to Reply # 75


  

          

context he said it.

  

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T Reynolds
Member since Apr 16th 2007
41540 posts
Tue Jan-15-13 10:09 AM

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77. "http://kimkardashian.celebuzz.com/2012/07/13/white-is-the-new-black/"
In response to Reply # 76


  

          

http://kimkardashian.celebuzz.com/2012/07/13/white-is-the-new-black/

Actually using KK is probably not going to help

but yeah it's a pretty well known phrase

plus Black isn't capitalized

  

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pretentious username
Member since Jun 18th 2010
11190 posts
Tue Jan-15-13 10:28 AM

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81. "lol"
In response to Reply # 77


  

          


>plus Black isn't capitalized
>

  

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Guinness
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Fri Jan-11-13 07:38 PM

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3. "that was sad."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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ThaTruth
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Fri Jan-11-13 08:20 PM

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5. "He didn't really "go in" on analytics, he just told ThaTruth, it can't....."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

be the be all, end all.

Everything he said was 100% right.

  

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Szabo
Member since Dec 16th 2007
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Fri Jan-11-13 08:27 PM

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6. "So you didn't read the article then?"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

"Andrei Kirilenko, for years, was a max player in Utah, but he was not the best player on that team." - Actually Analytics says that he was, continue.

"You look at Kobe . Kobe is able to get the best possible shot." - lol

There are several terrible comments

  

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ThaTruth
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Fri Jan-11-13 09:10 PM

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9. "Yeah I did..."
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

>"Andrei Kirilenko, for years, was a max player in Utah, but
>he was not the best player on that team." - Actually Analytics
>says that he was, continue.

Kirilenko was no better than the 3rd best player on that team

  

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ErnestLee
Member since Mar 03rd 2003
28523 posts
Tue Jan-15-13 08:38 PM

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104. "Depends what team"
In response to Reply # 9


  

          


>
>Kirilenko was no better than the 3rd best player on that team

He was their best player from 04-06. Then Deron and Booz took over.

---------------------------------------------------------

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
23470 posts
Fri Jan-11-13 08:28 PM

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7. "RE: Lionel Hollins goes in on analytics, nerds attack"
In response to Reply # 0
Fri Jan-11-13 08:29 PM by all stah

          

What he iterated was spot on, and even though I think rudy is a gun, rudy does bring certain qualities to the table that don't show up on the stat sheet.

---> spot on

"The reality is that we have a very versatile small forward that is 6'9. There aren't many guys out there like that. He can post up, shoot from the perimeter he can attack the basket. He defends LeBron James, he defendsKevin Durant and all these guys that are tall, and strong, and quick and athletic. We don't have another player on our rsoter with that versatility, and most teams don't. That's the bottom line."


"There are a lot of expectations that go with that contract, but as I've told all the players that sign a new contract, 'you are still the same player.' Obviously, the media and fans expect more, because you get paid more, but the reality is that everybody has a role. Andrei Kirilenko, for years, was a max player in Utah, but he was not the best player on that team. The leverage was such where he became a max player, and they kept him until his contract is up. He served a very valuable role. You can't knock players for getting contracts because they have leverage. That's what negotiating is all about.


"Sometimes, circumstances dictate the kinds of shots you get. When we have marc and zach on the inside, it's hard to find a spot to put them when we want to post rudy more. Rudy's adjusted to that from day one. You hear people say that Rudy and Zach can't play together and they don't fit. They do fit! They need each other. Zach needs Rudy'sversatility, and Rudy needs Zach to post up and get rebounds.


"We get hung up on statistics a little too much, and I think that's a bad trait all over the league that's taken place. And the media has done it because it's easy to go to the stats to make a point or to build up a player or tear down a player. Just the analyzing, I see it every time listening to talk show radio. You've got guys spouting off stat after stat after stat. The bottom line is going out and contributing to your team for winning."-----------------
------



Of course statisticians and writers are going to criticize because (1)he is black, and(2) stats allow people who don't know anything about basketball to degrade and praise players who they hate and love.

I don't understand why they can't re-structure rudy's contract. He wants to stay in Memphis, so what's the problem?




  

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Guinness
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Fri Jan-11-13 09:02 PM

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8. "LOL"
In response to Reply # 7


  

          

>Of course statisticians and writers are going to criticize
>because (1)he is black

  

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Bombastic
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27. "do people still actually do this in the NBA?"
In response to Reply # 7


  

          

>
>I don't understand why they can't re-structure rudy's
>contract. He wants to stay in Memphis, so what's the problem?
>
>
>
>
>

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:35 AM

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28. "Lmao"
In response to Reply # 27


  

          

I guarantee you if this was feasible and brought up, 1 second later rudy and his agent would say pls trade me

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 12:07 PM

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44. "RE: Lmao"
In response to Reply # 28


          

The new CBA allows for contract restructuring, so If rudy want's to stay , then he should be willing to restructure his contract

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Sat Jan-12-13 12:44 PM

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48. "Rudy wants to play anywhere where he can be paid."
In response to Reply # 44


  

          

I think it's been clear since his time at Connecticut that titles really aren't Rudy's priority. Getting paid a lot of money is Rudy's priority.

For beer lovers: http://thebeertravelguide.com
For movie lovers: http://russellhainline.com

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
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Sat Jan-12-13 01:11 PM

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50. "You don't rob a bank, beat the trial, the. Give the $ back"
In response to Reply # 44


  

          

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:14 PM

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54. "RE: You don't rob a bank, beat the trial, the. Give the $ back"
In response to Reply # 50
Sat Jan-12-13 02:15 PM by all stah

          

So you wouldn't be willing to re-structure your contract to keep your team under the cap, so that they can keep you, and or add other players?

You know how many players in sports have done that?

Several, the ones who care about the game, and not just money.

Lebron and Bosh basically restructured their contract possibilities to play for Miami!

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:18 PM

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55. "2 major errors in your thinking"
In response to Reply # 54


  

          

1) >Lebron and Bosh basically restructured their contract possibilities to play for Miami!

you are basically saying that they took less money to play in miami. Yeah, players do that all the time. They didn't restructure their pre-existing contracts.

2) Why should Gay take less money so that the owner can avoid tax penalties? If the owner wants to keep the team together, he can.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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all stah
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:22 PM

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56. "RE: 2 major errors in your thinking"
In response to Reply # 55
Sat Jan-12-13 02:23 PM by all stah

          

but they restructured their potential to make large sums of money so that the team could sign the both of them....you do understand that right?

Do you realize football players have their contracts restructured all the time to help the teams' financial situations? ....you do realize that right?

Also, said team is the team that GAVE him is lucrative contract, when he clearly didn't deserve it....


Since rudy is crying about being shipped out, and that he does not want to see the grzz disbanded, then why wouldn't be up for some kind of restructuring?

Help out or shut the fuck up about the trade...that's my take on him

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:25 PM

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57. "RE: 2 major errors in your thinking"
In response to Reply # 56
Sat Jan-12-13 02:26 PM by Cenario

  

          

>but they restructured their potential to make large sums of money so that the team could sign the both of them....you do understand that right?

Players do that all the time before signing a deal...not after.



>Do you realize football players have their contracts restructured all the time to help the teams' financial situations? ....you do realize that right?

Nfl contracts ain't guaranteed. you don't restructure ya ass can get cut. That's why nfl players have holdouts. You don't see nba dudes holding out right?

>Also, said team is the team that GAVE him is lucrative contract, when he clearly didn't deserve it....

so what...The owner can keep him..he don't want to pay the tax. Why should Gay take a profit cut and not the owner?? foh with this bs.
It's the same scenario with harden staying in OKC

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:26 PM

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58. "You do realize this is basketball and not football right?"
In response to Reply # 56
Sat Jan-12-13 02:28 PM by ShawndmeSlanted

  

          

We're talking about Rudy and not William gay, right?

I don't care what the CBA says there's no precedent for it in basketball. Part of the reason deals get restructured in the nfl is cause the contracts aren't guaranteed.
So yes if I might get my ass cut--I'm gonna restructure.
Memphis can cut amnesty or do whatever to gay, they still gotta pay.

On top of that to make his deal worth it dude would have to take like a 10 million per year pay cut lmfaoooo. I guarantee gay and his agent don't wanna be there that much.

He doesn't want to be in memphis that bad. Earlier this week he was like its whatever if they trade me they trade me.



>but they restructured their potential to make large sums of
>money so that the team could sign the both of them....you do
>understand that right?
>
>Do you realize football players have their contracts
>restructured all the time to help the teams' financial
>situations? ....you do realize that right?
>
>Also, said team is the team that GAVE him is lucrative
>contract, when he clearly didn't deserve it....
>
>
>Since rudy is crying about being shipped out, and that he does
>not want to see the grzz disbanded, then why wouldn't be up
>for some kind of restructuring?
>
>Help out or shut the fuck up about the trade...that's my take
>on him

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:34 PM

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"RE: You do realize this is basketball and not football right?"


          

and this is why the deals and contractual foundation in basketball are shit and will always be shit.

Also, the tax line is 70 million. The grizz are currently at 74 million , which leaves them at 4-5 million over the tax line. Rudy taking a 6 million dollar cut per season would help them out big time.


cool he wants to keep his contract?...then he should shut the fuck up about the trade scenarios.

if I were a player, and I wanted to stay in a certain city or with a certain team, and I knew I was getting GROSSLY overpaid, I would be willing to modify my contract.....


yeah, who needs redistribution!...fuck it!.I'm not letting go any of my candy!

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
23470 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 02:34 PM

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61. "RE: You do realize this is basketball and not football right?"
In response to Reply # 58


          

and this is why the deals and contractual foundation in basketball are shit and will always be shit.

Also, the tax line is 70 million. The grizz are currently at 74 million , which leaves them at 4-5 million over the tax line. Rudy taking a 6 million dollar cut per season would help them out big time.


cool he wants to keep his contract?...then he should shut the fuck up about the trade scenarios.

if I were a player, and I wanted to stay in a certain city or with a certain team, and I knew I was getting GROSSLY overpaid, I would be willing to modify my contract.....


yeah, who needs redistribution!...fuck it!.I'm not letting go any of my candy!

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:37 PM

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62. "lolz this is where i bow out and try to get some laundry done."
In response to Reply # 58
Sat Jan-12-13 02:38 PM by Cenario

  

          

foh at giving back 6 million to save the owner some money.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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Bombastic
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60. "football contracts are restructured because they're not guaranteed"
In response to Reply # 56


  

          

I really can't remember the last time an NBA player re-structured a deal that was already in place.

I remember Barkley deferring money so teams could afford to sign other people that offseason, I recall a dude or two opting out then coming back but I don't really remember a dude making close-to-max just deciding he would give back or even move that money back to help out an owner.

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:39 PM

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63. "RE: football contracts are restructured because they're not guaranteed"
In response to Reply # 60
Sat Jan-12-13 02:52 PM by all stah

          

that means nothing. Just because it has never been done before does not mean that it can't be done..

Contract restructuring is allowed in the CBA. period. So if rudy is so dead on staying in memphis, and he is bitching about being traded, see if the grizz would be willing to restructure his contract.


other than that, he needs to shut the fuck up, because he is GROSSLY overpaid.

  

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southphillyman
Member since Oct 22nd 2003
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Sat Jan-12-13 02:58 PM

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66. "no one is going to do it man give it up"
In response to Reply # 63


  

          

lebron situation is unique (google how much he actually made last yr)
what's just as confusing is this "save the team money" "billionaire owner" nonsense ppl have been throwing around lately
it's as if they think we're talking about the NFL too
margins in the nba for these non major market teams are razor thin some years
i don't fault teams at all for manipulating rosters to avoid the luxury tax. hard to argue any teams attempt to maintain flexibility imo.
compare the flexibility that okc has to say.....miami

~~~~~~

  

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magilla vanilla
Member since Sep 13th 2002
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121. "You going in tomorrow to beg your bosses for a pay cut? "
In response to Reply # 56


  

          

---------------------------------
Photo zine(some images NSFW): http://bit.ly/USaSPhoto

"This (and every, actually) conversation needs more Chesterton and less Mike Francesa." - Walleye

  

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TheRealBillyOcean
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10. "Nobody that wins games cares about this shit. Sorry nerds. Blog & cry."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

<---https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DL9AVTQ

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
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Fri Jan-11-13 09:41 PM

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11. "^^^"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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southphillyman
Member since Oct 22nd 2003
90059 posts
Fri Jan-11-13 09:47 PM

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12. "chill Morey used it to get 7th seed"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

~~~~~~

  

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TheRealBillyOcean
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13. "He's always gonna use it to get the 7th seed"
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

<---https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DL9AVTQ

  

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Guinness
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Fri Jan-11-13 10:01 PM

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14. "Lulz at this flat earth circle jerk"
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

Like the mavs and spurs aren't heavily into metrics

  

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TheRealBillyOcean
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15. "Your mid range jumper of a reply fell flat and to the right"
In response to Reply # 14


  

          

<---https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DL9AVTQ

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 01:45 AM

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23. "This was one of the weirdest circle jerks"
In response to Reply # 14


  

          

>Like the mavs and spurs aren't heavily into metrics
Consigning just blatantly wrong info. I don't usually get into these wars but
Aside from your teams named OKC Boston
I believe Portland stroll does. Charlotte started with cho.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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SeV
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Fri Jan-11-13 10:19 PM

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16. "Hmmm.. Another case of trying to make a Black coach look incompetent"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

and dumb.

Smh


____________

Dallas Heatvricks BACK 2 BACK CHAMPS!!

  

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Kajun
Member since Jan 11th 2008
1007 posts
Fri Jan-11-13 11:01 PM

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17. "Hollins might be a fine coach, but he'd be a shit GM."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Of course all he has to worry about is the guys on the floor and how they play, and pretend that salaries don't matter.

Advanced stats go hand in hand with value and cap numbers. The NBA is a business beholden to the cap, and a player's perceived production from his loyal coach is irrelevant when it can be properly analyzed statistically and put up against what it is costing you in lost opportunity.

Hollinger knows.

The Griz are stuck. They are are going to find it very difficult to seriously contend for a chip as currently constructed, and have zero financial room for improvement without moving someone. And the main reason, the only real reason, is Rudy Gay. You CANNOT pay someone $17 mil to contribute what he does and expect to win big as a small market. The advanced stats tell the story that we see when we watch. He defends pretty well, he shoots a high volume inefficiently, and he steals high percentage shots away from the team's low post advantage. At $8 million he'd be fine (Caron Butler type), but at $17 million he's poison.

Hollins has his guys playing hard, as all good coaches do. But he is clinging to the very thing that is holding his team back.

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Fri Jan-11-13 11:51 PM

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20. "^^^ great reply that folks will ignore."
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

>Of course all he has to worry about is the guys on the floor
>and how they play, and pretend that salaries don't matter.
>
>Advanced stats go hand in hand with value and cap numbers. The
>NBA is a business beholden to the cap, and a player's
>perceived production from his loyal coach is irrelevant when
>it can be properly analyzed statistically and put up against
>what it is costing you in lost opportunity.
>
>Hollinger knows.
>
>The Griz are stuck. They are are going to find it very
>difficult to seriously contend for a chip as currently
>constructed, and have zero financial room for improvement
>without moving someone. And the main reason, the only real
>reason, is Rudy Gay. You CANNOT pay someone $17 mil to
>contribute what he does and expect to win big as a small
>market. The advanced stats tell the story that we see when we
>watch. He defends pretty well, he shoots a high volume
>inefficiently, and he steals high percentage shots away from
>the team's low post advantage. At $8 million he'd be fine
>(Caron Butler type), but at $17 million he's poison.
>
>Hollins has his guys playing hard, as all good coaches do. But
>he is clinging to the very thing that is holding his team
>back.

For beer lovers: http://thebeertravelguide.com
For movie lovers: http://russellhainline.com

  

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blueeclipse
Member since Apr 12th 2009
1419 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 02:21 AM

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26. "Great post."
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

Nothing else really even needs to be said. Caron Butler is a damn good example against Rudy Gay making 17 mil. Hell you could throw Jamal Crawford in there too. Butler, Crawford, Barnes, and Bledsoe COMBINED still don't make as much as Gay. The Clips have their shit all the way together.

Dream with your eyes open.....

  

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BSharp
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Sat Jan-12-13 03:10 AM

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30. "I disagree."
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

While it's a longshot, I think that his team as currently constructed *could* win a championship.

Zach Randolph is as dominant as there is an offensive player in the league. Other than, you know, Lebron. But he doesn't count. Put Durant up there. Whatever. Zach is as good as it gets. He's unguardable.

Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol are players who can back him up, and if the other players click.... They *could* win.

Clearly, a longshot. But it's not like they don't have the players to make it happen. If you make the argument that it's impossible, then I'll make the argument that only a a handful of teams/franchises have won titles in the past several decades. That type of thinking is relevant, but prohibitive. Without thinking that the status quo is vulnerable, you have no reason to exist unless you have Jordan or Hakeem or LeBron.

  

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Kajun
Member since Jan 11th 2008
1007 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 01:06 PM

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49. "My argument isn't that it is impossible for Memphis."
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

Just that it is much more of a long shot with Rudy Gay on the payroll. His presence on the team is counterproductive to their current situation.

He is a salary cap black hole. He is essentially sucking up $10 million in cap space over what his production is worth. That's the difference between contender and not for this team.

They start Tony Allen, a defensive player at SG. I love this, but due to his offensive limitations it necessitates a productive and EFFICIENT wing scorer next to him. Rudy Gay is not a good compliment when he his shooting 41% from the field, and 31% from 3. For example, they'd be better off with a Jared Dudley type (and using the savings on a stellar bench scorer, etc), who also defends well, shoots a much higher percentage and takes a few less shots, giving Gasol and Randolph the more high percentage shots. Its all about the team construct. Their advantage is in the paint, and Rudy takes some of that off the table by taking 17 shots a game, much of them long jumpers at a shit rate.

Rudy's $17-$19 million off the books could instantly vault this team into a very serious contender for the next 3 years.

  

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FromTheGo
Member since Feb 04th 2003
10606 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 04:52 AM

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33. "thats not completely true..."
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

The gm has to bring in talent...
A good coach makes the talent efficient...

Coaches are paid to get the most out of players and Gay should not make less than Luol Deng.

The problem with Memphis was similar to the Bulls when we had Kirk and BG...

They didn't have enough scoring from the 1,2 so the 3 had to compensate and play outside his realm.

If Mayo was more consistent or they had a consistent scorer from the 1,2 positions, then Hollins would be able to utilize Gay differently but that wasn't the case nor is it currently.



Hell look at Luol Deng. He wasn't earning his money 5-6 years ago and plenty people gave him shit for it, because he was the #1 scoring option or #2 if you consider BG coming off the bench...

What happened, Rose and Boozer happened.

Now Deng could focus on defense and fine tuning his game where he can get to spots and be that 2nd or 3rd option and his game has improved overall. He adapted and coaching was a big part, but giving him 11 million in 2006 would seem dumb as hell for what you were getting.


Gay is good and worth 11-12 million easily all around.


Hell people argued if James Harden was worth a max contract or would a GM be dumb to pay him, when all it took was a different environment for you to see he could get his.


†††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††††
http://s17.postimg.org/6r7bfqpnz/kyrieglass.jpg - They Call Him Mr. Glass

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
21925 posts
Fri Jan-11-13 11:33 PM

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18. "i wouldn't argue analytics with a nonbeliever..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

any sooner than i'd argue the earth's sphericalness with a schizophrenic street-wino preacher.

it's like, what's the fucking point? it's crazy how every time the subject comes up, some ppl act like it's some sort of esoteric martian calculus. it's basic fucking math. i've just accepted that some ppl don't dig on math like that, and once you get past +-xχ they automatically get defensive and intolerant.

which is fine. let them frolic in their ppg/rpg/apg ignorance. who cares?

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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ThaTruth
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Fri Jan-11-13 11:41 PM

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19. "How many titles has Morey won?"
In response to Reply # 18


  

          

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
42541 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 01:42 AM

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21. "Morey isn't the only guy that uses it doofball"
In response to Reply # 19


  

          

Spurs, celtics (where Morey came from),okc all use it pretty heavily.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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ThaTruth
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Sat Jan-12-13 03:28 AM

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31. "Spurs used metrics to see how many games they should hold out..."
In response to Reply # 21


  

          

D-Rob to get a shot a Timmy, that's about it

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
42541 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 08:32 AM

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36. "This is about as loud and wrong you've been"
In response to Reply # 31


  

          

>D-Rob to get a shot a Timmy, that's about it
I don't get it cause the I formation is clearly out there. It's like me sayi ng 1+0=3

sloansportsconference
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=249
http://www.kdnuggets.com/2011/03/mit-sloan-sports-analytics-conference.html

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Kungset
Member since Mar 29th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 01:54 PM

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53. "Lol"
In response to Reply # 31


  

          

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
21925 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 01:45 AM

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22. "you post like a nigga who failed fractions."
In response to Reply # 19


  

          

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
83086 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 01:59 AM

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24. "lmao, awesome"
In response to Reply # 19


  

          

For beer lovers: http://thebeertravelguide.com
For movie lovers: http://russellhainline.com

  

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osu_no_1
Member since Feb 26th 2003
9387 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 08:12 AM

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35. "my argument is that even "advanced stats" are still too basic"
In response to Reply # 18


  

          

  

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nighttripper
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96. "some of these advanced stats are dumb, tho"
In response to Reply # 18


  

          

specifically, defensive rating. There's such a glaring flaw in the definition, it's a bit puzzling to me people even want to use it. So if anybody bases their argument on something silly like that, I'm going to assume they're the ones who don't understand statistics and their potential limitations at all.

imo, you can't really build effective advanced statistics by just crunching the regular stats numbers (like point scored) and re-formulating them a bunch of different ways. I would be much more interested in different approaches collecting data that is not accounted for in regular stats; things like counting the times a player provides effective help defense or forces a bad shot or 'near-blocks' a shot (making the shooter miss, obv).

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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Tue Jan-15-13 11:07 PM

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108. "agreed ..."
In response to Reply # 96


  

          

>specifically, defensive rating. There's such a glaring flaw
>in the definition, it's a bit puzzling to me people even want
>to use it. So if anybody bases their argument on something
>silly like that, I'm going to assume they're the ones who
>don't understand statistics and their potential limitations at
>all.


i don't lend much credence to the individual off/def rating stat. don't really like the methodology behind it.

but that's the thing : i did the knowledge. i didn't just dismiss it outright on some EVOLUTION AND GLOBAL WARMING DON'T EXIST AND THE HOLOCAUST NEVER HAPPENED dumb shit, and I didn't use one instance that I don't necessarily agree with to impugn the entire enterprise.


>imo, you can't really build effective advanced statistics by
>just crunching the regular stats numbers (like point scored)
>and re-formulating them a bunch of different ways. I would be
>much more interested in different approaches collecting data
>that is not accounted for in regular stats; things like
>counting the times a player provides effective help defense or
>forces a bad shot or 'near-blocks' a shot (making the shooter
>miss, obv).

yeah, the teams' in-house data def tracks all that and more. the synergy sports stuff, for instance, is used by every team in the league now. way more sophisticated that what we the general public are privy to.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
42541 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 02:00 AM

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25. "Unfortunately it seems like analytics is the next front on race warz"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Not just here but in the real NBA.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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J_Stew
Member since Jul 06th 2002
22359 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 02:42 AM

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29. "Harabalos makes more money betting nba than anyone else alive"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I would just agree with whatever he says. He also watches every single nba game.

  

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LA2Philly
Member since Oct 18th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 03:57 AM

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32. "Advanced metrics and traditional scouting go hand-in-hand"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

If everyone would just recognize that, it would be so much easier to have actual basketball discussion. If someone brings up a stat, it doesn't mean they are a 'stat geek...and if someone brings up something unique from in-game, it doesn't mean they are archaic and can't do math.

The fact is you want as much information as possible...and it's simply impossible for humans/scouts to give you that in the amount of objective detail that numbers can. On the other hand, humans/scouts can account for nuances that numbers and stats still cannot because too many variables exist to utilize only statistics.

Utilizing both statistics and humans gives you the greatest amount of coverage and information. If everyone just stopped labeling each other as an extreme and actually tried to incorporate some of things they may not be comfortable with, we could have some great discussion instead of the same ole stat vs traditionalist dichotomy.

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
56841 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 07:32 AM

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34. "Pretty much"
In response to Reply # 32


  

          

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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ConcreteCharlie
Member since Nov 21st 2002
71181 posts
Sat Jan-12-13 10:00 AM

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37. "right, even morey said it was funny bc AS confirmed a lot of what they"
In response to Reply # 32


  

          

already knew, like that shane battier was a guy who helped them win in a variety of ways.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 10:52 AM

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38. "you're 100% correct, of course, but here's the thing :"
In response to Reply # 32


  

          

literally no one advocates SOLELY using analytics. not a single person. so that's a strawman.

tons of people argue the converse tho, from ex-players turned tv analysts to old-media-dinosaur types like wilbon to know-nothing cats in this forum and others online, and it's silly to me that so many folx are so adamant and deadset on outright dismissing the advanced metrics as being totally w/o merit or value.

shit is borderline retarded. pretty much every team in the league is using the formulas now, in some way shape or form. every front office has @ least 1 or 2 quants on the payroll. lmao @ cats thinking it's just morey and hollinger.

and yes, the lion's share of the naysaying DOES stem, at least in part, from a fear of / inability to do anything beyond the most basic math. i'm absolutely convinced of that part being true. diminishing math skills is a prevalent American issue in general tho and a whole other conversation.




>If everyone would just recognize that, it would be so much
>easier to have actual basketball discussion. If someone brings
>up a stat, it doesn't mean they are a 'stat geek...and if
>someone brings up something unique from in-game, it doesn't
>mean they are archaic and can't do math.
>
>The fact is you want as much information as possible...and
>it's simply impossible for humans/scouts to give you that in
>the amount of objective detail that numbers can. On the other
>hand, humans/scouts can account for nuances that numbers and
>stats still cannot because too many variables exist to utilize
>only statistics.
>
>Utilizing both statistics and humans gives you the greatest
>amount of coverage and information. If everyone just stopped
>labeling each other as an extreme and actually tried to
>incorporate some of things they may not be comfortable with,
>we could have some great discussion instead of the same ole
>stat vs traditionalist dichotomy.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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LA2Philly
Member since Oct 18th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 11:44 AM

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39. "I hear you but what I'm referring to is the labeling of each 'party'"
In response to Reply # 38
Sat Jan-12-13 11:47 AM by LA2Philly

  

          

I never said those who advocate for stats say it's the end all be all...but rather, and I've seen it on these boards, is that when this debate pops up and someone brings up stats or traditional methods...they are instantly labeled an extreme, with no middle ground. It's a really silly 'debate' technique and only serves to have individuals dig their heels in further.

I agree with you that traditionalists tend to be dismissive, but some of the stats cats often do act very arrogant and pretentious which only serves to feed into the stereotypical 'stat geek' image, and limit discussion.

And lastly, the math issue is definitely a legit one. I've had discussions on here about the simplest metric, pace adjusted ppg, and simply because it involves some math, some cats were dismissing it...even though it's basically the simplest shit lol.

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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Sat Jan-12-13 11:50 AM

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40. "Stat guys only get dismissive when stats get ignored."
In response to Reply # 39


  

          

It's usually when someone hears an advanced statistic dropped and a non-believer in statistics appears to dismiss it.

It happens in OKP all the time with Guinness.

Guinness: his true shooting % is such and such.
Unnamed OKP: LOL @ thinking these advanced statistics tell the story.
Guinness: god you're dumb.

It's pretty impossible for an advanced stat nut to become dismissive unless someone dismisses them first. How can they otherwise? There's no gloating about basic math and science. It is what it is. It's like people gloating about believing in evolution. It just won't happen unless creationists enter screaming.

For beer lovers: http://thebeertravelguide.com
For movie lovers: http://russellhainline.com

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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41. "^^^^^^^"
In response to Reply # 40


  

          

alladat.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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42. "gotcha. we're on the same page here."
In response to Reply # 39
Sat Jan-12-13 12:06 PM by dula dibiasi

  

          


>I agree with you that traditionalists tend to be dismissive,
>but some of the stats cats often do act very arrogant and
>pretentious which only serves to feed into the stereotypical
>'stat geek' image, and limit discussion.
>

well, that's just because they're smarter... duh


>And lastly, the math issue is definitely a legit one. I've had
>discussions on here about the simplest metric, pace adjusted
>ppg, and simply because it involves some math, some cats were
>dismissing it...even though it's basically the simplest shit
>lol.

yeah i've seen this. shit is embarrassing lol. how hard is it to grasp that different teams play at different speeds? sheesh.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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southphillyman
Member since Oct 22nd 2003
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Sat Jan-12-13 01:28 PM

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52. "like everything on this board lines are drawn in the sand over agendas"
In response to Reply # 39
Sat Jan-12-13 01:38 PM by southphillyman

  

          

> It's a really silly 'debate' technique
>and only serves to have individuals dig their heels in
>further.

advanced stats didn't arrive here as a means of understanding or discussion
it arrived as a way for ppl to argue positions that few agreed with (kobe vs. hollinger)
what's most interesting to me is how AS transitioned from being something universally clowned here not even 2 yrs ago to now having a large following


>
>I agree with you that traditionalists tend to be dismissive,
>but some of the stats cats often do act very arrogant and
>pretentious which only serves to feed into the stereotypical
>'stat geek' image, and limit discussion.

ppl are being pretentious even in this thread
and it's kind of hilarious because i know dudes like dula, guinness, frank longo, and you etc probably have no idea what hadoop is
and probably couldn't implement a mapreduce algorithm if your lives depended on it (not being pretentious just being realistic....guinness and longo are writers i believe(!))
data is every where folks and some ppl actually use it for meaningful things. professionally even (lol)
i don't think anyone is even questioning the math so it's weird that it's constantly brought up as the disconnect
you'd think these guys were sitting at their laptops with calculators instead of regurgitating precompiled numbers off of a website for whatever petty argument their having at the moment
shits ridiculous actually


~~~~~~

  

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rob
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59. "why are so many people just gonna be wrong here?"
In response to Reply # 52


  

          

you're wrong

  

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southphillyman
Member since Oct 22nd 2003
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64. "gotta love these replies...."
In response to Reply # 59


  

          

about what exactly....
how AS begun being discussed here?
bout ppl using pretentiousness as an arguing technique on a messageboard?
or about ppl here who classify themselves as 'stat nerds' probably having no idea what was going on in data 5 yrs ago much less right now?
or do you want to try mapreduce? how about a simple quicksort? show ur work http://jsfiddle.net/
lol

~~~~~~

  

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rob
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65. "about how people generally use stats here"
In response to Reply # 64
Sat Jan-12-13 02:48 PM by rob

  

          

you're pulling pretentiousness rank atm...and in general they're not pretentious or wrong...only time i can really recall is d'antoni stans

  

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southphillyman
Member since Oct 22nd 2003
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67. "um read some of the comments in here if you get the chance"
In response to Reply # 65
Sat Jan-12-13 03:05 PM by southphillyman

  

          

and i'm not being pretentious at all
just highlighting how ridiculous some of the pretentious comments/suggestions from the "stat heads" are in these threads when:
a)they're talking about middle school math
b)none of them are actually doing math anyway, aren't coming up with formulas or new perspectives, and the use of AS here is pretty zero sum (the whole reason why there's opposition) instead of being nuanced or insightful

~~~~~~

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 04:26 PM

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68. "Ive read the replies here and countless in other posts"
In response to Reply # 67


  

          




>and i'm not being pretentious at all
not at all--not even a tiny but? FOH.

>just highlighting how ridiculous some of the pretentious
>comments/suggestions from the "stat heads" are in these
>threads when:
>a)they're talking about middle school math
>b)none of them are actually doing math anyway, aren't coming
>up with formulas or new perspectives, and the use of AS here
>is pretty zero sum (the whole reason why there's opposition)
>instead of being nuanced or insightful

Advanced Stats as it stands right now IS middle school or high school math. Thats fact. But just because it is doesnt mean it isnt valid, doesnt make sense, or is weak.

Ill be the first to say that I'm not a math guy. The highest math I took was calculus but that doesnt mean my arithmetic and algebra isnt as sharp, fast, and accurate as anyone elses on this board. Its apples to fuckin oranges.

You deal with math on a daily basis, great. That doesnt mean you understand advanced stats better than all of us who dont.

If you think there's a way you can apply your math to NBA advanced Stats analysis then I would strongly suggest you take your HADOOP, figure out how to apply it to advanced stats, and get yourself a nice paying, cushy NBA or other sports job--cause thats the next frontier. Theres jobs out there eight now calling your name. Morey had a feww posted up a couple weeks ago.


I was a guy who grew up watching basketball and up until a few years ago was one of those guys you mentioned who dismissed them. But imo any smart person who really takes the opportunity to look deeper into it and realize that isnt an end all be all will figure out where it makes sense. There are still areas of it I remain cautiously skeptical about, but like I said, there's a huge frontier for people who really know statistics. If I had known this growing up--I would've done something completely different.

Lets get into the hypocrisy of your statement on lines being drawn in the sand.
It's funny that you choose to post so dense on some of this shit because your line is drawn in the sand with Guinness. I've seen you in posts quoting advanced stats so I know you know they arent invalid. But because one of your big beefs on this board is with the guy who is known as the boards biggest AS guy, you choose to slam it publicly to feed the trolls who really arent even understanding the basic math to go at Guinness. When I think about it--it is pretty crafty and hilarious. I imagine you just posting shit like--"Chill Morey used it to get the 7th seed" and sitting back laughing when you get dudes to cosign it when you know damn well Morey isnt the only dude in the league using AS...not even close.


I love how you even had to go get all stah on that salary negotiation shit. LMAO.

I think Frank said it best the AS guys cant really be pretentious first. As Ive seen it theyll throw stats out there that traditionalist old guard types will quickly make fun of as geek shit--when like you said it isnt really geek shit. Its basic math. Just a new way at looking at the game.

No AS guys argue to exclusively look at the game with a 100% AS lens. But there are plenty of old guard guys on this board and in the NBA who are still like we dont need that AS stuff at all.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Guinness
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69. "it's bizarre."
In response to Reply # 68
Sat Jan-12-13 05:40 PM by Guinness

  

          

the same people who regurgitate stats from box scores are the first to dismiss "advanced" stats...that come from box scores. most of the stuff we talk about on here is really, really basic: pace adjusted numbers, TS%, offensive rating. i feel like it takes more effort NOT to understand those things than to have relative fluency in them.

to SPM's credit he actually fucks with these things, even if he's somehow on the other side of the "debate" here (which is mostly because his anti-morey/harden/asik/lin agenda). other skeptics are just being willfully obtuse, but they're a vocal-but-dwindling population.

personally, i don't enjoy the binary "player X is better than player Y" part of metrics like PER/WS as much as using numbers to figure out what players/teams are doing right and doing wrong. it's also nice to be able to weed out rhetorical bullshit about "heart" and "leadership" and "clutchness" that are popular with the punditry. after delving into this stuff, it's astounding to realize how much wrongness is ceaselessly recited as facts from fans and analysts.

if you're not talking about TS% in 2013, you're doing it wrong. but i do think we're in the midst of a pretty tidal change: the amount of criticism that "hero ball" now gets is entirely different from a couple years ago.

  

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LA2Philly
Member since Oct 18th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 05:41 PM

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70. "I disagree with you about heart and leadership being bs"
In response to Reply # 69


  

          

Those are still very valid concepts that definitely impact performance on a team level. It's very hard to quantify and you have to be involved on a daily, personal basis to see how those aspects affect everyone else.

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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thejerseytornado
Member since Dec 24th 2005
26051 posts
Tue Jan-15-13 10:26 AM

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79. "I think his point is that when they point at specific players"
In response to Reply # 70


  

          

as having "heart" or being "leaders" or "clutch" and then you look at stats that focus on "clutch" situations, those players aren't actually particularly clutch.

but folks is mad about that because there are too many agendas (kobe/bron was the classic) that get all sorts of fucked up by those stats.


-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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LA2Philly
Member since Oct 18th 2004
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Tue Jan-15-13 01:25 PM

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83. "There's a reason I left clutch out of my post. It's semi-quantifiable "
In response to Reply # 79


  

          

But heart and leadership...how do you tangibly quantify the impact that has on a team or specific other players? And it's not just some bs made up value...those two things play a great deal in team unity, mentality, attitude, young player improvement, etc.

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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thejerseytornado
Member since Dec 24th 2005
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Tue Jan-15-13 01:39 PM

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84. "people used to say that about clutch"
In response to Reply # 83


  

          

anyway, it seems like, if we had good enough statistics, leadership/heart would be the residuals or intangibles left out of the model for teams. So if a team keeps outdoing what statistics predict they should do, that could be attributed to leadership or heart.

but in general, in other sports, those ideas are largely non-existent. Leadership/heart don't seem to impact baseball success. It's possible that baseball is a uniquely non-leadership-oriented sport (it is far more individualized a set of performances), but it also is possible that leadership and heart are actually quantifiable in terms of how well others play when you're on the court or not. It's a complicated statistic to measure that, and basic stats like +/- are really, really poor attempts to do that, but it'd be doable over a whole season for at least high minutes players because there are so many possessions in an 82 game season.

>But heart and leadership...how do you tangibly quantify the
>impact that has on a team or specific other players? And it's
>not just some bs made up value...those two things play a great
>deal in team unity, mentality, attitude, young player
>improvement, etc.


-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Tue Jan-15-13 02:16 PM

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89. "how far along are advanced stats in soccer"
In response to Reply # 84


  

          

I know there have been systems in place for calculating match ratings for a long time. Id imagine things continue to get more complex?

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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thejerseytornado
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98. "pretty far behind"
In response to Reply # 89


  

          

but there's a good chance the advanced statistics will lead-frog other sports because they're doing some really cool stuff with tracking the exact location of each player at any given time. That'll be the type of micro-data that needs HADOOP and distributed computing

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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71. "lulz."
In response to Reply # 52


  

          

>ppl are being pretentious even in this thread
>and it's kind of hilarious because i know dudes like dula,
>guinness, frank longo, and you etc probably have no idea what
>hadoop is
>and probably couldn't implement a mapreduce algorithm if your
>lives depended on it

i've got the memory of an elephant, and i'm fairly certain the two of us discussed my educational / professional background at one point. right after you came out of school, I think. I never delete inboxes so it's in there somewhere if I bothered to look. whatever tho, it was many many moons ago. but yes, spm, i'm intimately familiar w distributed computing lol. quicksorts too.


and almost anyone who knows me would tell you that i'm probably the least pretentious person on earth. i'm not pretending not to care about ppl being so nonchalantly and closemindedly dismissive of analytics. i. honestly. don't. care. i've just never been the type nigga who suffers fools, luddites and antiprogressives gladly. as far as i'm concerned, they're just in the way.


oan : swype just autocorrected "analytics" to "ass fanatics" and i'm kind of mad that i'm still juvenile enough to have found that way funnier than it actually was.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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thejerseytornado
Member since Dec 24th 2005
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Tue Jan-15-13 10:27 AM

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80. "the really funny thing is, hadoop and distributed computing"
In response to Reply # 71


  

          

are about 20 years ahead of where advanced stats are right now. maybe the stats being used by teams and not released publicly, but that shit can't be more irrelevant to what anyone is talking about in public.

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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Sat Jan-12-13 12:04 PM

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43. "Man, fuck this post"
In response to Reply # 0


          

My nigga Dula Dibiasi is up in this peace.


was going on, bro!

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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Sat Jan-12-13 12:12 PM

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45. "haha, what up stah?"
In response to Reply # 43


  

          

loser ass nigga. what's good, my dude?

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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46. "RE: haha, what up stah?"
In response to Reply # 45


          

You still mad that the bulls are shite, I see?

Let it go, MAYO is chilling!

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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47. "yeah O putting that work in. shoulda came here."
In response to Reply # 46


  

          

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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all stah
Member since Sep 03rd 2005
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51. "RE: yeah O putting that work in. shoulda came here."
In response to Reply # 47


          

bulls might still be able to get him ...he might opt during the summer

  

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Walleye
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Tue Jan-15-13 10:22 AM

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78. "Does baseball give us a timeline for this?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Outside of a Huizengan* push back everytime an allegedly traditional team wins a ring or an allegedly progressive team fumbles in the playoffs, front offices will make fewer and fewer stupid decisions. Correspondingly, the crafty transactions that smug fans and writers will point to as evidence of a growing divide between smart teams and dumb teams will become fewer and fewer. That wont stop people from shouting about it, though. This reaches a high point when an obviously terrible trade suddenly doesn't look particularly bad. We'll call it "The Krivsky/Kearns Moment".

Eventually, it'll start to appear that the biggest remaining arena for teams is acquisition of amateur players, something which absolutely requires scouting. We'll all be bored and confused about what side we're supposed to be on, until that edge also becomes blurry because of the one stable truth in all of this, that people between the ages of eighteen and twenty-two are fundamentally unreliable. So, you know, luck kind of matters a lot.

Fashionable teams will win for luck that looks like fashionable reasons. Unfashionable teams will win for luck that looks like unfashionable reasons. I kind of suspect that the true smart teams will be the ones that figure out an effective way to keep their talent healthier than everybody else's, but at the moment that kind of seems like luck too.

*Yep. I've been reading "Autumn of the Middle Ages". Deal with it.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Tue Jan-15-13 02:09 PM

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87. "*likes*"
In response to Reply # 78


  

          

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Frank Longo
Member since Nov 18th 2003
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92. "^^^ and then there's this."
In response to Reply # 78


  

          

Health and maturity are both immeasurable at the moment and certainly unquantifiable by any mathematical certainty. Although part of me does wonder if things like bones and muscles will soon become part of the statistical field, in hopes of identifying trends on a genetic level in terms of injury-prone probability.

For beer lovers: http://thebeertravelguide.com
For movie lovers: http://russellhainline.com

  

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Walleye
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105. "The rough tries at it in baseball resulted in useful stereotypes"
In response to Reply # 92
Tue Jan-15-13 08:58 PM by Walleye

          

Short secondbaseman don't last long and crater fast. Unless one doesn't. Tall pitchers take longer to develop consistent mechanics. But they could be worth it. Unless they're not. Short righthanders don't make good starters. Unless they're Pedro Martinez or Tim Lincecum. Then they do.

edit: access to private medical data seems both necessary for a good stab at this project and the sort of thing that no good players' union would ever permit front office types to share with each other freely.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

  

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T Reynolds
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82. "I just don't know how somebody could care enough about basketball"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

to get into advanced analytics if you're not getting paid for it

what a waste of time and potential

  

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B9
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85. "then there's that"
In response to Reply # 82


          

advanced analytics do work for sports that have finite outcomes and are open to little subjectivity (baseball, football) in terms of measurement. The art, for those sports, comes in the interpretation and coloring of the story that you think the numbers tell.

In basketball, there is so much situational ambiguity that I am skeptical you can build even a basic data set that tells a remotely concrete story about a player, coach or team's effectiveness or execution. It's too free-flowing, too interchangeable, too random. When continuation fouls, for example, entered the game, everything went out the window.

That said, it's not all down to mystical ability. Hollins' Kobe clutch argument, for example, has been explained away as a simple numbers probability; he makes the shot because he's given the most chances. And he's given the most chances because he makes shots, or we believe he does at a higher rate than an alternative shooter.

  

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T Reynolds
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102. "I like this answer"
In response to Reply # 85
Tue Jan-15-13 06:27 PM by T Reynolds

  

          

I wouldn't take that many words to say it because I'm lazy

but basically

keep numbers outta sports!

way more useful things to spend your time on

  

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hardware
Member since May 22nd 2007
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86. "nghs hate being wrong"
In response to Reply # 82


          

Malcolm said 'by any means necessary'

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
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88. "but its middle school math"
In response to Reply # 82


  

          

>to get into advanced analytics if you're not getting paid for
>it
>
>what a waste of time and potential
>
>


Its not like im sitting here with a spreadsheet of my own open, entering and crunching numbers. I just look at data that already exists because youre right Im not getting paid. Sometimes when im driving I think about areas of advanced stats that are still uncharted, but it really doesnt go that far beyond my brain bubble.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Guinness
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90. "LOL"
In response to Reply # 82


  

          

as if going to basketballreference to find someone's TS% is more grueling than finding out his FG% on yahoo.

  

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T Reynolds
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91. "so you're admitting you plagiarize your data"
In response to Reply # 90


  

          

  

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Guinness
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93. "NOPE."
In response to Reply # 91


  

          

i watch every play of every game of every season and record usage rates into an abacus

  

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T Reynolds
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94. "oh i get it."
In response to Reply # 93


  

          

all of the sense of authority

none of the number crunching

now i see why america is losing at Math

  

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LA2Philly
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99. "If the formula is transparent and makes sense, who cares who made it"
In response to Reply # 94


  

          

That's some silly ass thinking

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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rob
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100. "if every american understood half of basketball-reference"
In response to Reply # 94
Tue Jan-15-13 04:54 PM by rob

  

          

(meaning where the numbers came from, what the website does with them, and why it's bullshit if you disagree)

that would easily put us #1 in math

i don't get why everyone saying the numbers are stupid or people are using them wrong just don't DO THAT when it comes up.

if someone is using a number wrong, call them on it.

if someone is using an "advanced" stat that is derived from lousy data or poor critical thinking, call them on it.

if it doesn't apply, say why.

just because it isn't a huge time investment doesn't mean it's not relevant....that's what the internet is fooooor.

  

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T Reynolds
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101. "LOL at you bozos taking my comments to heart"
In response to Reply # 100


  

          

ease up nerds

  

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Guinness
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103. "pleaes ,stop trollign us Dude thanks"
In response to Reply # 101


  

          

  

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T Reynolds
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109. "you got into this advanced analytics shit to troll Mamba posts"
In response to Reply # 103


  

          

suffer, douchenozzle

  

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Guinness
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112. "stop trollign me ,Bro"
In response to Reply # 109


  

          

  

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LA2Philly
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106. "Too late to plea-cop now"
In response to Reply # 101


  

          

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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T Reynolds
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111. "want to know how you been on OKS too long"
In response to Reply # 106


  

          

you just told me i'm trying to plea-cop

  

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Cenario
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113. "lol"
In response to Reply # 93


  

          

i watch every play of every game of every season and record usage rates into an abacus

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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dula dibiasi
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107. "lol"
In response to Reply # 82


  

          

this dude just remixed the 50000 POSTS? GO OUTSIDE AND GET SOME PUSSY AND FRESH AIR last-gasp rebuttal

nicely done

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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T Reynolds
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110. "just for you son"
In response to Reply # 107


  

          

  

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RexLongfellow
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95. "The Biggest Problem I Have With Some Advanced Stats"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Is when cats use it to make some sort of outrageous claim
It's one thing to say for example James Harden is better than you think he is and here's why (backed up by xyz)

It's another thing to say the only SG better than Harden is Manu Ginobili and use those stats.

I don't have a problem with using some of them. However, when cats are trying to say bench players are better than certified all-stars in the league just by using those stats it gets ridiculous. And then when you're stunned by that claim, certain heads try to call you an idiot

  

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Guinness
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97. "lulz"
In response to Reply # 95


  

          

you could at least make an effort to quote me correctly when you're trying to take shots.

i said harden was the best OFFENSIVE SG last year, which he was. and he is again this season, so what exactly are you crying about now?

  

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celery77
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114. "coach's job to motivate (c) Feel, GM's job to analyze = non-issue here"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

the coach has to coach the personnel. that's why Hollins has been fantastic for Memphis -- he made the team wear his personality in the best way possible.

but it's not necessarily his job to worry about #s. he really *does* need to be more worried about things like whether or not Zach Randolph made it into the hotel at a reasonable hour the night prior. yeah, okay -- maybe he should check with an assistant coach from time to time about whether or not they have some useful advice, but overall it's just not his realm.

but that's also why you have a GM who ISN'T the coach, because that GM is going to be the guy who's going to argue over salary and decide which trades are right, which trades are wrong. and he can't be caught up having personal connections to guys because they hustle the hardest in practice and set the tone for the bench unit etc.

it's just a non-issue. actually the nerds are the dumbest for proclaiming themselves victors when their #s are still more theory than fact (and will probably remain that way for the rest of our adult lives).

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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Guinness
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115. "not true."
In response to Reply # 114


  

          

yes, what you described are the duties of the coach. but the notion that he shouldn't act as a conduit between numbers guys and the players is insane. that's his JOB

  

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celery77
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116. "yeah, his job to communicate + facilitate <--- still doesn't need math"
In response to Reply # 115


  

          

he doesn't need the #s.

but yeah, sure -- he needs a #s guy that can give him useful information.

but let's see a team try to hire a strict #s guy as the head coach, do you think that would work? cuz I don't.

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

  

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Guinness
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117. "Also. "
In response to Reply # 116
Wed Jan-16-13 03:22 PM by Guinness

  

          

What does "numbers are more theory than fact" mean? Sounds really, really wrong.

and OF COURSE he needs the numbers. WTF. what kind of madman would suggest that a coach operate in a vacuum where he doesn't know his players' statistics? jesus fucking christ.

  

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ConcreteCharlie
Member since Nov 21st 2002
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123. "Except almost no coaches see it that way right today"
In response to Reply # 114


  

          

The level of importance varies but there is some level of importance for just about every coach in the NBA, MLB and NHL. Even the staunchest "Oh I don't look at that crap" guys in the press look at it privately, most would acknowledge it is a tool for them and some would place a strong emphasis on it.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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Orbit_Established
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124. "coaches always evaluated numbers. LoL"
In response to Reply # 123


  

          


I love how now that the analytics era has taken monstrous
Ls, people are moving the goalposts

the truth: analytics-fascism lost.

  

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Guinness
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118. "LOL"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

advantage nerdz

  

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ThaTruth
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119. "RE: Lionel Hollins goes in on analytics, nerds attack"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

>SB Nation article:
>http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/1/1...interview-2012
>
>Kinda interesting after they just hired Hollinger...

funny how we almost here nothing from Hollinger since he's taken that job...

  

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ThaTruth
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120. "so did Hollinger quietly slip out the back door in Memphis or what?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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B.J.S.301
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122. "Slickest exit ever. No fanfare at all. "
In response to Reply # 120


          

  

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