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Subject: "Advanced Stats/Sabermetric Heads: A Basketball Question" Previous topic | Next topic
RexLongfellow
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Thu Jan-10-13 03:30 PM

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"Advanced Stats/Sabermetric Heads: A Basketball Question"


  

          

I go back and forth with you cats, not gonna say any names, but it's all love on this end

But the question I have is this:
With 2 GMs using these advanced stats, and are probably gonna be active by the trade deadline (Hollinger, Morey), they are probably looking to either trade picks away, or acquire picks. Are these same advanced stats that are established for NBA players used for kids in the drafts? Are you gonna look at a true shooting % of a Nerlens Noel, or the win shares and the like available for a Seth Curry?
In other words, what are they using to make a good draft pick? Or are they using picks to covet players already in the league that they have some sort of basis information off of?

Question I had due to possible trades of picks...wondering the thought process of who/how they would go about approaching the draft

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
So Hollinger really is the Grizzzlies GM? I thought that was an Onion...
Jan 10th 2013
1
This gives you some insight.
Jan 10th 2013
2
Interesting
Jan 10th 2013
4
      One of Morey's strategies is to collect talent
Jan 10th 2013
5
           yeah.
Jan 10th 2013
9
different game
Jan 10th 2013
3
yes.
Jan 10th 2013
6
and they probably have figured out which stats do and dont translate wel...
Jan 10th 2013
8
i don't consider myself a stat person but i figure
Jan 10th 2013
7
cool chapter on minor league baseball scouting in nate silver's book
Jan 10th 2013
10

ThaTruth
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Thu Jan-10-13 03:36 PM

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1. "So Hollinger really is the Grizzzlies GM? I thought that was an Onion..."
In response to Reply # 0


          

article

________________________________________
"Stay out the dark, cause if I catch you when the sun is down..."
https://youtu.be/eaaTxVRG06c?t=89

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Thu Jan-10-13 03:41 PM

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2. "This gives you some insight. "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Not every team does it this way and this article also talks about scouting current NBA players, but you get an idea of the pieces of information that go into it.


http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/06/23/3337874/bobcats-hope-massive-revamp-of.html

Charlotte GM Rich Cho engineers ‘one-stop shopping’ scouting database for Bobcats

Charlotte puts system to the test in Thursday night’s NBA draft, when the Bobcats select second and 31st following a 7-59 season.


By Rick Bonnell
rbonnell@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Saturday, Jun. 23, 2012
Slideshow
« Prev of 2 Next »

Charlotte Bobcats president of basketball operations Rod Higgins and general manager Rich Cho, along with the rest of the Bobcats' front office, use a state-of-the-art scouting system Cho envisioned for the team to instantly analyze prospects, free agents and potential trades. Jeff Siner - jsiner@charlotteobserver.com

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MORE INFORMATION
Polk: Many uses for Bobcats' cap room
Thomas Robinson, Andre Drummond sweat through Bobcats workout
Mike Dunlap already pushing tempo in Bobcats workouts
Harrison Barnes: Matt Carroll redux?
Former N.C. State guard C.J. Williams relishes shot at NBA
Inside the NBA: Rick Bonnell's blog
More Bobcats/NBA coverage
NBA DRAFT
Thursday, 7 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Bobcats picks:

No. 2, 31



The Charlotte Bobcats’ new database scouting system has over 50,000 web pages.

You can instantly look up year-by-year statistics for Boston Celtics great Bill Russell … or any other player in NBA history. You can check the injury archive of a Slovenian playing in the Spanish league or whether a forward in the Development League was ever busted for drugs.

This is Charlotte Bobcats general manager Rich Cho’s baby, an Internet-friendly system that took six months and a six-figure cost to develop. Now it evolves daily and gets put to the test in Thursday night’s NBA draft, when the Bobcats select second and 31st following a 7-59 season.

Cho’s boss, president of basketball operations Rod Higgins, has a simple description for this complex tool: “One-stop shopping.”

The result, the Bobcats hope, is that quicker access to a buffet of information offers a competitive advantage in player evaluation.

When Cho interviewed with the Bobcats a year ago, he told Higgins and team owner Michael Jordan he thought the front office needed more staffing and fresh technology. When you’re dealing with decisions as consequential as the No. 2 pick, don’t you want the best tools available?

Jordan agreed, approving the hiring of three new support staff, including a Harvard graduate to oversee statistical analysis. Then Jordan tasked Cho with reviewing the Bobcats’ scouting system, to see whether it should be replaced.

The Bobcats were using “Hawkeye,” one of several plug-in scouting tools NBA teams can buy and adapt to their needs. Cho thought it wiser to start from scratch, to customize a Bobcats-only system. Among NBA executives, he has a rare background that qualifies him to do just that.

Cho’s undergraduate degree was in engineering and he worked in that field for Boeing before attending law school at Pepperdine. When he interned for his then-hometown Seattle Supersonics during a summer break from law school, general manager Wally Walker tasked him with refining the team’s scouting system.

“I want to be the most technologically advanced general manager in the league,” Cho recalls Walker saying.

Cho enlisted an acquaintance from Microsoft to build the Sonics’ system and linked up with him again for the Bobcats’ version (Cho won’t identify his Microsoft contact for competitive reasons. Why let other NBA teams mimic his designs?)

The approach

Cho’s system has all the basics you’d expect: Player contracts, statistics that can be used to compare Bobcats players’ development to others’, any potential bonuses that could complicate trade discussions. But beyond that, this is a function of Cho’s self-description as “a big information hound.”

Call it nosey if you like. To Cho, it’s being forewarned. You can see both the engineer and the lawyer in Cho’s concept.

He tells the scouting staff to be perceptive with their “eyes” (in writing scouting reports), their “ears” (dig deep in background checks: Is a player a leader or a follower? Does he smoke or drink? Does he care about others?) and through “numbers” (a wealth of statistics that can be collated a variety of ways for apples-to-apples comparison).

Beyond that, Cho asks the team’s scouting staff for two things: Look ahead, not behind, and develop a consistency in evaluating players’ development.

There’s a quote from hockey great Wayne Gretzky that Cho likes, repeated throughout these web pages like a mantra: “When everyone else is looking where the puck is, I’m looking at where the puck will be.”

The reports

In an attempt to see trends ahead of the pack, Cho remade how Bobcats scouts file their reports. He didn’t like the standard practice of rating a player’s shooting or dribbling 1 through 10, because one scout’s eight was another scout’s six.

So he came up with a nine-level system with labels, descriptions and examples, for scouts to use as a guide. The rankings: Franchise, Core, Top starter, Starter, Key reserve, Reserve, Roster, Minor-league, No-Bobcat.

There are fewer than 10 current NBA players graded as “franchise.” As Cho described, “we’re talking about players who can change the caliber of a team.”

At the other end, Cho describes a “No-Bobcat” as a player whose talent falls far short of NBA-caliber or who’s behavior is so egregious it can’t be tolerated.

Beyond that, Cho installed a scouting template for every report. That includes an Internet function that automatically pops pertinent numbers (such as Kentucky star Anthony Davis’ shots blocked) into reports quickly after games end. Cho said he wants scouts writing evaluations, not keyboarding numbers.

The result

What the Bobcats got for this investment is a system that drills deeper into player backgrounds, offers consistent evaluations and is dramatically speedier in updating information. Now, when a staffer scouts a game, one keystroke emails the info to every decision-maker on the team.

Speed matters. You might have 20 minutes before the trade deadline at mid-season when you’re offered a deal. You want the comparative salaries, the statistics and intel on involved players all in one place instantly. That’s even truer on draft night, when there are five minutes between each first-round pick and two minutes between second-round picks.

Higgins loves Cho’s innovations. He says his office now fits inside his smart phone.

“This really simplifies the whole process, whether we’re talking about player comparisons or dollar-for-dollar for trades,” Higgins said. “There are tons of questions (you might need answered quickly).

There’s not a number we can’t now get on a dime.”

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/06/23/3337874/bobcats-hope-massive-revamp-of.html#storylink=cpy

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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RexLongfellow
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Thu Jan-10-13 03:55 PM

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4. "Interesting"
In response to Reply # 2


  

          

I'll catch up on it when I get off work, but I was just wondering with the limited sample size for college players and numerous other variables as to what the thought process is for making a pick

And in your squads case, the Rockets, I'm wondering if Morey has a plan for the draft, or is trying to stockpile picks for a major deal. It's a decent problem to have, but I would wonder what he would do in a draft...especially in a no-so-strong one like this season as speculated

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Thu Jan-10-13 04:04 PM

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5. "One of Morey's strategies is to collect talent"
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

>I'll catch up on it when I get off work, but I was just
>wondering with the limited sample size for college players and
>numerous other variables as to what the thought process is for
>making a pick
>
>And in your squads case, the Rockets, I'm wondering if Morey
>has a plan for the draft, or is trying to stockpile picks for
>a major deal. It's a decent problem to have, but I would
>wonder what he would do in a draft...especially in a
>no-so-strong one like this season as speculated
But I thin he's also gonna have a plan. A guy like him always has a plan. You have to remember that we've picked mid first round for the last decade. I think in that position you try to amass talent because its hard to find game changers there anyways. Morey has actually done a great job as Guinness pointed out yesterday of finding guys who are important parts of our lineup in the late 1st or second round.


Sometimes his strategy for the earlier first round picks works, sometimes it doesnt. Part of the reason we selected Royce is they saw him as a top 5 talent who had dropped because of other issues. At the time they felt they could be making a nice profit in terms of his value

I think its a good strategy when you have a lot of core pieces. One of the things that strategy has left us with is a glut of underized pfs, that were trying to pawn off for a better pf.

We'll see if he can do it.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Guinness
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Thu Jan-10-13 05:46 PM

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9. "yeah."
In response to Reply # 5
Thu Jan-10-13 05:48 PM by Guinness

  

          

morey's belief is that second-round picks are chronically undervalued - you get the rights to a player for cheap and for several years. the hope is that you get a good young player for nothing, turn him into a commodity and flip it for more value. simple buy low/sell high shit. look at how much parsons is worth now, especially locked into that deal. but you don't strike gold that frequently without a superior mix of scouting and statistical analysis that other teams aren't trusting.

  

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AnonymousCoward
Member since Sep 17th 2002
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Thu Jan-10-13 03:45 PM

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3. "different game"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I imagine that advanced metrics would come into play with second rounders and tweeners though.

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Guinness
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Thu Jan-10-13 04:13 PM

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6. "yes."
In response to Reply # 0
Thu Jan-10-13 04:13 PM by Guinness

  

          

obviously there are differences because players are so young, still developing and playing against varying competition, but it only makes sense that guys who value metrics are going to do it across the board. i'm sure scouting remains a big deal though, just because video and stats aren't as uniform as they are in the pros.

  

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thejerseytornado
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Thu Jan-10-13 04:58 PM

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8. "and they probably have figured out which stats do and dont translate wel..."
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

Across levels.

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

  

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rob
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Thu Jan-10-13 04:55 PM

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7. "i don't consider myself a stat person but i figure"
In response to Reply # 0
Thu Jan-10-13 04:56 PM by rob

  

          

if i'm reading stuff like this before the draft:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/By-the-Numbers-The-2012-Big-Man-Crop-3994/
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Situational-Statistics-the-2012-Big-Men-Crop-3992/

then people like morey (and maybe hollinger) are thinking about it a year or two ahead of me.

  

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Kungset
Member since Mar 29th 2004
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Thu Jan-10-13 06:10 PM

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10. "cool chapter on minor league baseball scouting in nate silver's book"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

basic gist is that stats are getting better and better but "traditional" scouting still plays a huge role.

  

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