We're going to talk about some stuff. A non-exhaustive list of foreseeable popular topics stuff include things like improving our shitball pitching staff, what to do with eleventy pretty good outfielders on the 40-man roster, what to do with a similar glut of middle infielders when they all suck at something important, trade rumors, and our farm system. As always, however, the place to begin is with a roster.

So here's the 40 man. Baker, Capps, and Pavano will all come off of it in the next week, leaving us with 32 names.

1. Scott Baker
2. Alex Burnett
3. Jared Burton
4. Matt Capps
5. Cole De Vries
6. Samuel Deduno
7. Scott Diamond
8. Brian Duensing
9. Casey Fien
10. Deolis Guerra
11. Liam Hendriks
12. Pedro Hernandez
13. Lester Oliveros
14. Carl Pavano
15. Glen Perkins
16. Tyler Robertson
17. Anthony Swarzak

18. Drew Butera
19. Ryan Doumit
20. Chris Herrmann
21. Joe Mauer

22. Jamey Carroll
23. Alexi Casilla
24. Brian Dozier
25. Eduardo Escobar
26. Pedro Florimon
27. Justin Morneau
28. Chris Parmelee
29. Trevor Plouffe

30. Oswaldo Arcia
31. Joe Benson
32. Darin Mastroianni
33. Ben Revere
34. Denard Span
35. Josh Willingham

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

1. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/29/3568278/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2013

First Prospect List of the season. Sano at the top with a grade of A-. Surprise is Arcia ahead of Buxton, but for the good reason that he luuurves Arcia. Pleasant surprise is three pitchers in the top ten, Gibson, Berrios, and Melotakis. Unpleasant surprise is lack of infielders without serious concerns. Michael's rough year, Rosario's up-in-the-air position, etc. are all unsexy.

2. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/28/3562462/aaron-hicks-finally-reaching-his-potential

The article is more of a question. Is Aaron Hicks finally meeting his potential? The answer is a tentative yes, but it doesn't sound like he's convinced that this is an all-questions-answered step forward. He does buy the adjustments that Hicks made to his left-handed hitting approach, noticing a shortened swing and better 2-strike aggressiveness.

3. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/24/3548420/prospect-update-max-kepler-of-minnesota-twins

It tossed around the phrase "Justin Morneau-type hitter" which is pretty terrific. Sounds like he's destined for a corner, but they keep describing him as an unreal athlete so, whatever.

4. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/21/3533532/miguel-sano-the-next-giancarlo-stanton

I like this comp because it avoids the pressure of guys like Miguel Cabrera who have already built a strong Hall of Fame case. Stanton is a marvelous star, but one with holes in his game, and the comp is a pleasant one for those of us following Sano and enjoying reading those box scores and batting lines but still noticing the big strikeout totals.

5. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/21/3531192/baxendale-and-berrios-two-intriguing-twins-pitchers-from-the-2012

Berrios is on a lot of writers' minds and might be the only Twin pitcher with a shot at BA's top-100 list (unless every writer decides the AFL is more important than they ever thought and Gibson comes back all shined up in their eyes) but Baxendale is getting some notes as a sleeper. He doesn't throw hard, but his fastball is average-ish and... you heard this story before? The reason why this doesn't bug me, though, is that Baxendale was picked in the 10th round. He might be part of the Radke clone army, but his late-round availability is also a criticism of it. If guys like that can succeed and be picked late, then PICK THEM LATE.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Not with that entire contract taken on by the Twins, but sure. Though if we're talking to the Marlins then I think Josh Johnson is a much more fun choice.

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Twins_search_for_SPs_might_mean_another_stab_at_Mark_Buehrle102812

by Phil Mackey
1500ESPN.com
Mark Buehrle won't be on the market when Major League baseball free agency begins six days after the World Series. That doesn't mean he's not an option as the Minnesota Twins try to fix their starting rotation, again.

It is believed the Twins quietly were among the most serious suitors for Buehrle's services last year, before the veteran left-hander signed a four-year, $58 million deal with the Miami Marlins in early December.

While the Marlins underachieved, Buehrle had a vintage season at age 33, posting a 3.74 earned-run average while walking only 40 batters in 202 1/3 innings -- the 12th consecutive season he has passed the 200-inning mark.

According to league sources, though, not only are the Marlins open to trading Buehrle this winter, they would also be willing to eat a significant chunk of the $48 million remaining on his back-loaded contract, which guarantees $11 million next year, $18 million in 2014 and $19 million in 2015.

The Twins, or any other potential suitor, would need to give up a good prospect or two, sources said, and the quality of those prospects likely hinges partly on how much money they would want Miami to kick in.

With Scott Diamond currently the only pitcher penciled into next year's rotation, the Twins are hoping to bring in two or three new starters this winter via trade or free agency.

General manager Terry Ryan says he will do due diligence on top free agents such as Zack Greinke and others, but prices for top-of-the-rotation arms are likely to be too lofty for the Twins, who head into the offseason with approximately $74 million tied up in the 2013 payroll.

Twins decision-makers always admired Buehrle's durability and leadership from afar when he pitched for the Chicago White Sox. Over the last decade-plus, Buehrle has been perhaps the most durable pitcher in baseball, averaging 219 innings per season since 2001 with a 3.81 ERA.

Since 2005, the Twins have received 200 innings from a starting pitcher only five times from men not named Johan Santana (Carl Pavano twice, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Carlos Silva).

After signing free agents to nearly $200 million worth of contracts last winter, the Marlins have spent the last few months dumping salary and booting out malcontents.

Prior to the July 31 trade deadline, Miami traded Hanley Ramirez ($15 million) and Randy Choate ($1.5 million) to the Los Angeles Dodgers for two young pitchers. They also dealt Omar Infante ($4 million) and Anibal Sanchez ($8 million) to the Detroit Tigers for top pitching prospect Jacob Turner and two other minor leaguers, although Sanchez's impending free agency played a role in this deal as well. Right-hander Edward Mujica ($1.6 million) was traded too.

Last week, Miami fired manager Ozzie Guillen with three years and $7.5 million remaining on his contract.

Earlier this month, Miami traded underperforming reliever Heath Bell to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a light-hitting, 22-year-old, Single-A shortstop named Yordy Cabrera. Most important, Miami also picked up $8 million of the $21 million remaining on Bell's contract.

Right-hander Josh Johnson, who will earn $13.75 million in the final year of his contract next season, is also believed to be available.

Marlins' brass thought a new ballpark and a big splash in free agency would generate wins and excitement, but 2012 turned out to be a disappointment on all fronts. The Marlins finished 18th in total attendance, bringing only 27,400 fans per game, and that figure might sink lower following a 93-loss season. Prior to the new ballpark, Miami averaged 19,000 fans per game (28th in MLB).

Twins starters posted a 5.40 ERA collectively last season, which was the American League's worst mark.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

No swipe, but here's the short story. The Angels have team options on both Dan Haren (15.5mm) and Ervin Santana (13mm) that they apparently intend to decline. Instead, they might be persuaded to take a relatively minor prospect return in exchange for the right to make a different decision on these fellows. Both had shitty years last year, but both also still possess the sort of upside that:

a)can help the Twins
b)wont be available on a one year deal if their options are declined and they hit the free market

I so "no" for any prospect in the top-20. But if we're talking about a potentially useful bench guy like Nate Roberts or a reliever with a fastball like Dakota Watts, then I think the Angels could be mildly interested and the Twins wouldn't suffer.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/angels-could-trade-haren-santana.html

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

So, scratch that guy.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Plouffe hit .235/.301/.455 in 2012, but put up such an incredible June and pretty good July that we're forced to talk about him. That six week period where it seemed like he was not only incapable of hitting a fastball over the wall but also more skilled than we'd suspected at blooping breaking pitches into right and/or laying off them gave us a pleasant view of Trevor Plouffe, starting MLB 3B. His defense was also somewhere north of embarassing, so that was good too.

Then he hurt his wrist and the whole thing went to shit. The question to ask ourselves, however, is "would it have gone to shit anyhow?"

There's a couple different ways to answer that. The first is by examining the implication of the "no" answer - which revolves around his wrist injury. Those problems are notoriously power-sapping, and with due respect to his increased contact/discipline we can take a nice look at Plouffe's line even in his hottest month (.327/.391/.735) and see what we're dealing with here. An absurdly hot Trevor Plouffe, one who can do no wrong with the bat, hits about Joe Mauer's lifetime average. The best we can hope for is something like Joe Crede without the defense.

August is where he tried to return and things fell apart, but to support a "no" answer to the above question, perhaps the nature of the middling final month of the season will help. Plouffe hit four homeruns that month for a .218/.269/.416 line, which is obviously awful but at least showed a return of some of the power that won him the job in the first place.

Supporting a "yes" answer to that question, however, is Plouffe's 21:6 K:Bb rate during this return to "form" month. His June breakthrough was driven not just by power, but by some plate discipline that mitigated the contact problems that just aren't going to go away at this point in his career. In June, for instance, he struck out in about 23% of his plate appearances (a number which in no way supports a projection of any batting average above .250 without extreme luck and extreme power) but he also walked 10 times. That's not even a particularly good rate, but it's good enough to make up for the singles he's not hitting with his all-fly-all-pull approach.

That he was willing to drop this relevant uptick in patience to rebound from his August slump isn't a good sign of things going forward. But if he is indeed somebody who is durably capable of 25-30 homeruns in a full MLB season then it might not matter until Miguel Sano is ready.

Either way, finding somebody to push him and possibly serve as a platoon partner seems like a good idea. Ryan has, in typical Terry Ryan fashion, not actually ruled Mauer out in his denial but there's no reason to expect Mauer to play any 3B except on an emergency basis. I like the Chavez idea, except that the Yankees seem to like having him around and therefore he's unlikely to consider taking the exact same role on a worse team for less money. We can do better than Polanco by just making one of our glove-first utility guys the first choice.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/176420591.html

Twins Will Seek Competition For Trevor Plouffe, But It Won't Be Joe Mauer
Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: October 30, 2012 - 10:10 AM 1 commentsprint

In the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan last week, (the 9-page entirety of which you can find in the 2013 Offseason Handbook), we asked about his confidence in Trevor Plouffe. He expressed concerns about his defense, and while he has is penciled in for the job, Ryan wants other options, too.

TR: coming in as the third baseman. Yes, he will. I need to create some competition over there though. And we will. And he’s aware of that. Nothing wrong with competition.

JB: Does that competition include Joe Mauer?

TR: Nope. I’m going to create some competition, but I didn’t say anything about Joe Mauer.

JB: I’m just asking. Have you thought about or talked about Joe Mauer moving to third base?

TR: No, I haven’t. Some fans have, but I haven’t.

So the good news for Plouffe is that he is expected to have the job at the hot corner. The bad news is that the Twins are going to be hedging their bets this offseason.

If the Twins are looking for competition, they had one such candidate this year, but Sean Burroughs became a free agent. Burroughs was an interesting option because he hit left-handed, and the right-handed hitting Plouffe still has a big split (911 OPS vs LHs/ 691 OPS vs RHs) against the more plentiful side of the rubber.

Looking at the Offseason Handbook, there are a few other fairly inexpensive options that might make sense. Eric Chavez put up very good numbers for the Yankees, but the left-handed hitting 34-year-old only had 33 at-bats against southpaws. It’s not clear how affordable he could be, but if he can’t get a job as a platoon player, a spot backing up an unproven guy like Plouffe could be a very nice option.

Most of the other names one would recognize bat right-handed, but each has some other interesting traits. For instance, Brandon Inge used to play catcher. So instead of carrying Drew Butera as a 3rd catcher, Inge could fill in udring an emergency. He had shoulder surgery at the end of the season, but is expected to be recovered by spring training.

Placido Polanco struggled this year, but he was also dealing with a back injury. In the past, the Twins have been rumored to be interested in him and the 37-year-old might be able to occasionally fill in at a middle infield spot. Meanwhile, another 37-year-old is rumored to be retiring, but the always intense Scott Rolen might be an interesting veteran to add to a clubhouse filled with kids.

These aren’t going to be moves that transform the Twins, nor should any of them be used as an excuse to overlook bigger issues. But this might be something to watch late in the offseason, when leftover free agents are searching around, or whenever news of a six-year minor league free agents signing trickles out.

Whoever the Twins sign will hopefully be nothing more than an insurance policy as Plouffe shows he belongs as a full-time starter. Or, like Sam Deduno and PJ Walters, that obscure signing could play a much bigger role than anyone anticipates this winter.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

*sigh*

remember when we weren't happy with him because of his defense or some such bullshit?

Like, if they'd gone old-Twins and just looked at the presently huge amount of totally unreliable shortstop prospects in the high minors (Florimon, Dozier, Escobar, etc.), shrugged and said "well, one of these assholes has to work and they're all cheaper than Hardy" then I'd kind of get it.

Instead, we Mets'd the whole thing and went expensive and bad. Hardy gets injured too much? We'll replace him with somebody who's been repeatedly given starting jobs and has never managed 450 plate appearances in a season (Casilla). Isn't smooth enough making all the plays at shortstop? We've got a guy who boots all the balls that it looks like he should boot (Plouffe). Nothing confusing about that. Not enough power in that that high-K bat? Brian Dozier can turn from an MiLB contact machine to somebody constantly in 0-2 counts in the majors, and he can do it without all of those pesky doubles and homers. Makes too much money? There's this NPB batting champion that's available and.... Ugh.

I'm excited about the off-season because the bulk of the decisions made last winter turned out to be smart little moves that fans should be proud of even if the team sucked. Doumit, Willingham, and Jared Burton should make the short list for 2012 FA pickups. Carroll turned out to be not bad either. But nobody should be shocked if the greatest development from the off-season was Nietszche-oka doing the team a huge favor and requesting his release, freeing them from the last year of his contract. That was some mensch-y stuff.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Presented, initially, without comment except the observation that we could probably use as many as four of these folks. If you want to trade Denard Span and Justin Morneau and think there are five that are better than Scott Diamond but cheaper than 40mm or so, then pick five you like by all means.

Starting pitchers
Scott Baker (31)
Erik Bedard (34)
Joe Blanton (32)
Dallas Braden (29)
Bartolo Colon (40)
Aaron Cook (34)
Kevin Correia (32)
Jorge De La Rosa (32) - $11MM player option with a $1MM buyout
Ryan Dempster (36)
Scott Feldman (29)
Jeff Francis (32)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Justin Germano (30)
Zack Greinke (28)
Jeremy Guthrie (34)
Rich Harden (31)
Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
Roberto Hernandez (32) - $6MM club option (Reduced from $9MM after contract was restructured)
Edwin Jackson (29)
Hiroki Kuroda (38)
Francisco Liriano (29)
Kyle Lohse (34)
Derek Lowe (40)
Shaun Marcum (31)
Jason Marquis (34)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
Brandon McCarthy (29)
Kevin Millwood (38)
Dustin Moseley (31)
Jamie Moyer (50)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Carl Pavano (37)
Andy Pettitte (41)
Anibal Sanchez (29)
Jonathan Sanchez (30)
Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Joe Saunders (32)
Tim Stauffer (31)
Carlos Villanueva (29)
Chien-Ming Wang (33)
Kip Wells (36)
Randy Wells (30)
Randy Wolf (36)
Chris Young (34)
Carlos Zambrano (32)
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html#G3OQiRXuyGCGBTAq.99

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>Scott Baker (31)
>Erik Bedard (34)
>Jorge De La Rosa (32) - $11MM player option with a $1MM
>buyout
>Ryan Dempster (36)
>Zack Greinke (28)
>Rich Harden (31)
>Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
>Roberto Hernandez (32) - $6MM club option (Reduced from $9MM
>after contract was restructured)
>Edwin Jackson (29)
>Hiroki Kuroda (38)
>Francisco Liriano (29)
>Shaun Marcum (31)
>Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
>Brandon McCarthy (29)
>Anibal Sanchez (29)
>Jonathan Sanchez (30)
>Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
>Carlos Villanueva (29)
>Randy Wolf (36)

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>>Scott Baker (31)
>>Erik Bedard (34)
>>Rich Harden (31)
>>Roberto Hernandez (32) - $6MM club option (Reduced from $9MM
>>after contract was restructured)
>>Edwin Jackson (29)
>>Hiroki Kuroda (38)
>>Francisco Liriano (29)
>>Shaun Marcum (31)
>>Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
>>Brandon McCarthy (29)
>>Anibal Sanchez (29)
>>Jonathan Sanchez (30)
>>Carlos Villanueva (29)
>>Randy Wolf (36)

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>>>Erik Bedard (34)
>>>Rich Harden (31)
>>>Edwin Jackson (29)
>>>Hiroki Kuroda (38)
>>>Shaun Marcum (31)
>>>Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
>>>Brandon McCarthy (29)
>>>Carlos Villanueva (29)
>>>Randy Wolf (36)
>

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>>>>Edwin Jackson (29)
>>>>Hiroki Kuroda (38)
>>>>Shaun Marcum (31)
>>>>Brandon McCarthy (29)
>>>>Carlos Villanueva (29)

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Is this another case of a young pitcher getting a fluke no hitter, or could he be legitimately good someday?

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

He actually debut'd on his 20th birthday, nine years ago. There've been eight organizations in total, and it's fair to see that until signing as a free agent with Washington last year that every one of those teams has traded for him hoping they'd be the squad with which he realized his potential as a strong #2.

His story has been pretty consistently below that potential, but for the sort of reasons that will always make him a worthwhile bet. He's been durable and has carried a mid-90s fastball across his whole career. He gets swings and misses with a hard slider and his fastball and curve both have average potential. You'd be fair in asking if this isn't the ideal profile of a strong #2 and a borderline ace, and then asking what the problem is.

The usual answers are:

a)control
b)health

As I said above, he's been healthy and durable. His fastball hasn't lost much velocity (average 93.5mph) and he's been above 160 innings annually since breaking through in 2007. The walk rate used to be the issue, but he's posted above-average walk rates since 2009 so it's safe to say that he understands how to throw strikes. So scratch that reason.

Soooo, in a nod to "the Twins way," Jackson's real problem has been fastball command. He's just a bit too hittable, and has shown the annoying ability to post big K/9 numbers *and* big H/9 numbers. When he looks like the 1/2 he can be, that fastball lives low and on the corners and hitters don't have a chance. So, it's not like he just comes unraveled, but rather leaves too much over the plate.

Anyhow, even with the downside above, he does something that the Twins don't have at all at the MLB level with Baker/Liriano departed. The odd thing is that nobody seems willing to be multi-year with him, even though he's shown that his downside isn't even that bad. Teams haven't regretted paying for way worse performances than his 2011, and he's posted FIP below 4.00 the last four years.

I would have dropped him from the list of guys in the Twins usual price range if it weren't for the fact that I thought the same thing last winter and he only signed a 1/11mm deal. The Twins have done well with position players lately by asking themselves "why the hell is this guy still on the market?" as we saw with Orlando Hudson and Josh Willingham. Jackson is a Boras client, so he'll sit around on the free agent market for awhile unless a team jumps in - but he's the profile of a rare free agent pitcher that the Twins can both afford and feel comfortable signing for three years or so.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>>>>>Hiroki Kuroda (38)

is he another chavez? or are the yankees really done with him?

the others all have their warts, which is to be expected. ugh. i almost feel like picking two names out of a hat, shrugging and moving forward.

The Yankees seem likely to get less out of the Brackman, Betances, Banuelos "prospect" group than they did out of Chamberlain, Kennedy, and Hughes (have we had the TINSTAAPP* talk here?) then I suspect they'll overshop on the expensive end of the market. Greinke has been knocked as "not a Yankee" since before he was an option for the Yankees, but they'll be in on him because psychology is dumb until it isn't.

I suspect they view Kuroda pretty similarly to Chavez. A great bargain and a good fit for the role. If he were left-handed, he'd be perfect.

However, Kuroda's present skillset (180-220 innings of pitching about 15% better than league average) is extremely valuable. The difference with Chavez is that the Yankees are ideal for him, where Kuroda doesn't need to feel the same way. I doubt the Twins are high on his list, but they probably have as much chance as anybody willing to go multi-year on a 37 year old... and there you go.

Out of the above list, Jackson would be my preference. I'd love to see the Twins make him their pitching Willingham and offer three years early. He's been durable and, at his absolute worst I'd still project him as the Twins best pitcher in 2013 by a long, long margin. He'd also be a change in pitching character for the team without requiring them to go outside their comfort zone with respect to control.

Shaun Marcum is a completely fascinating pitcher that I'd prefer to be interested in from afar. The Twins training staff doesn't need a guy who requires that much maintenance and I don't want to see the other shoe drop on how he manages to get so many strikeouts with so little fastball.

Kuroda would be great on a one-year deal, but I doubt he'll be available to a shitty team on a bargain. Villanueva and McCarthy are better than what we have, but more of the same. If we'd finished in shouting distance of .500 last year then they might be valuable additions, but for now I'd rather try different like Sam Fuckin' Deduno and 130 innings of Kyle Gibson.

*There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>(have we had the TINSTAAPP* talk here?)

>*There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect

i assume it deals with the unpredictability of prospects in general, but that would be a 50k foot generalization.

Between injury, general attrition, and unpredictable aging curves, the idea is that you don't count your pitching chickens until they've not only hatched but have hatched and lodged a 180 inning season without crumbling into dust. So the Yankees turning the Kennedy, Chamberlain, and Hughes triumvirate into Curtis Granderson, an often-injured reliever, and a solid-if-inconsistent starter is pretty good even though those guys were all at one point among the top three pitching prospects in the game.

The logical side conversation for Twins fans, who are probably more inclined to accept this principle now than ever, is why we're picking such low upside pitchers if the "safe" guys are Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers and Adrian Salcedo and Carlos Gutierrez? If we're just pissing in the dark when it comes to health/development then we may as well go sexy upside.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

And MLBTR says that he wants to resume his career in Japan eventually, so it almost sounds like he prefers one year at a time. That's the good news on Kuroda. The bad news is that the Yankees are definitely going to make a qualifying offer (1/13ish million) in order to recoup a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. That doesn't affect the Twins 2013 pick (which is protected at #4) but it is probably more than the Twins will want to spend on a one year deal for Kuroda. So, there that goes. A better's team's cover-your-ass baseline money is more than Minnesota is willing to go.

That's not that bad of a thing, actually. We can argue for more aggressiveness from the front office without regarding Yankee spending like it's a good idea.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Paxton has a kind of fascinating backstory if you're interested in the trials of the amateur athlete weighed against the bloated hog of the NCAA, but because my enthusiasm for writing posts on trade targets kind of wanes once I get started and realize how remote the chance is of me predicting a trade successfully then I'll leave it to you to either google the story or to ask for its telling here. Aaaaanyhow, Paxton is a 6'4" 220 lbs. lefty who will turn 24 next week. He attended the University of Kentucky but pitched his last season in the independent leagues before being drafted in the 4th round of the 2010 draft. Again, it's a story.

He pitched in AA all 2012 season after reaching the level in the back half of 2011. The Mariners typically skip their better pitching prospects past their high-A affiliate because the hitting experience for a team called High Desert is exactly what you'd imagine if you treat "high" as a sign of altitude. In 106 innings in 2012, he struck out 110, walked 54, gave up 96 hits, and turned in an ERA of 3.05. The things he's typically done well throughout his pro career are strike guys out and keep the ball in the park. His walk rate is slightly higher than the Twins are usually comfortable with, but I think they're starting to become aware that their BB-rate comfort zone isn't always a productive way to evaluate pitchers and since Paxton is more like Greg Maddux than Jason Neighborgall it's not really anything to worry about so much as something which might limit his eventual peak.

Since this is the new 21st century instead of the old 21st century, we're back to scouting with scouting information so it may be worth it to ask, "how does this young Paxton achieve this delightful pitching results?"

The answer is a big, nasty fastball that he parks in the 91-95mph range and which peaks at 98mph. From a lefty starter, the descriptor we can use on that velocity is "no fucking joke". BA says he's comfortable elevating the ball in the zone for swings and misses but can also throw a 2-seamer that will keep Rick Anderson from shitting himself. They call his slow (high 70s) curve a plus pitch and last year said his changeup was showing positive signs of development. Gotta have a changeup to get out MLB righties.

He is currently pitching in the AFL for Peoria, the same team that features Twins prospects, which will give Twins scouts a nice, long look at him. I suspect he's got a shot of making an MLB rotation out of Spring Training in 2013, but a more realistic ETA would be early summer.

As for why the Mariners would want to trade a lefty with a big fastball and a 2/3 profile, the answer is that Paxton is actually their third best pitching prospect in the system. Additionally, their organization is kind of like the photo negative of the Twins right now. They've had an impossible time developing offensive talent at the MLB level, getting disappointing returns from legitimate bluechip prospects like Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, and Dustin Ackley. And their farm system is pretty drastically weighted toward defense.

The logical suggestion for a team that is in bad shape for the opposite reasons of the Twins is a prospect-for-prospect swap, but due to the natural conservatism of MLB general managers those are oddly rare. Instead, it may be worth considering that Seattle considers itself closer to contention than it looks at the moment. They're in a division where a young upstart just made the playoffs. The huge favorite for 2012 looks oddly vulnerable. And the giant spending behemoth in the division, Anaheim, looks really old.

If they believe they can keep a defense/staff in place that only allowed 651 runs in 2012 and add ready, reliable offense at a decent price then I think they'd happily surrender Paxton in order to do so. I love Josh Willingham deeply, but it's unclear that he'll be part of the next great Twins team. So, how would folks feel about a swap of Willingham for Paxton? We've got more outfielders than we can deal with coming up through the system, and while none of them will offer Willingham's bat in 2013 (though don't bet against Oswaldo Arcia, who seems to require exactly 2-4 weeks of adjustment at every single level before resuming Oswaldian annhilation of league pitching) nearly all of them can offer better glovework in our spacious outfield. So what if we swapped out Willingham for Paxton and went with a Young Glove theme?

Rotation (by summer):
Paxton
Diamond
Gibson
Deduno
Hendriks

Lineup:
Span - CF
Carroll - 2B
Mauer - C
Morneau - 1B
Doumit - DH
Plouffe - 3B
Benson - RF
Revere - LF
Florimon - SS

The answer is a strong "meh" unless Benson returns to pre-wrist injury form, and even that was a work in progress. But if Arcia and Hicks play their way into starting roles and the Twins can take another pass at trading some outfielders for useful pitchers, then we're onto something. There's not a lot of runs there, but Arcia has gained a ton of buzz as a legitimate middle of the order hitter so it's worth waiting on that.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Orioles claimed him on waivers. I always liked the chance that he could develop into a real middle infield starter with an above-average OBA and solid-to-good defense. There were flashes of both but too much bad/injured in between for us to imagine that he could put together 550 good plate appearances in a year. And he's getting expensive in arbitration and we have an upper-minors full of glorified utility players.

I hope he plays well. He's apparently going to start at second next year in Baltimore, serving as JJ Hardy's double play partner unless the O's trade hardy to return Machado to his natural position.

Relatedly, the Twins picked up a utility guy from Colorado named Todd Fields and a reliever from Colorado named Josh Roenicke. For now, I'd say that Roenicke is the only name that you should bother to commit to memory. He throws hard-ish and was a workhorse in the Rockies bullpen last year, logging 88 innings. That's worth something, particularly when you don't know where all of your starter innings are coming from.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

There you go. They liked Deduno, but apparently not enough to keep him around on the forty man. Luckily, he and his agent realized that there aren't a lot of teams with this kind of holes in the rotation which also view Sam Fucking Deduno as a potential solution.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

nice to see he knows the opportunity is here. just needs to be patient.

How often does a guy without a serious injury sign a minorleague deal with a team that he started fifteen games for the previous year? But yeah, the list of rotations as fucked as the Twins is pretty awesome and there's nothing in Deduno's history or 2012 peripherals that really recommends him strongly.

It's just sort of funny because:

a)an MiLB deal acknowledges that he's even more stuck with the Twins than they are with him, which I'm not sure is unambiguously true

b)as we talked about in-season, he's like the exact opposite of the prototypical Twins pitcher. It makes a relationship of convenience pretty unexpected.

I like him though. And I'd like it even more if the Twins found five guys that I liked better, so I'm good either way.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>I like him though. And I'd like it even more if the Twins
>found five guys that I liked better, so I'm good either way.

I brought up his name in the rather shouty "200 win pitchers" post because he has 165 wins and basically retired after his age 34 year. Anyhow, he's had a remarkable career that is kind of obscured by his utterly unremarkable 165-160 win-loss record. He's steadily struck out eight batters a game for fourteen years and walked under two and a half. As a flyball pitcher, he's struggled with the longball, but has also never been troublingly hittable.

The homeruns are the chief factor here, though. If you look at his peripherals only, this is a pitcher who is a non-crazy comparable to Mike Mussina. But he doesn't keep runs off the board at nearly the same rate due to hitters' ability to hit for power against him when he's off. A more familiar and sensible analogy would be Scott Baker, then.

That's not sexy, but after taking a year off and now having to prove himself in the WBC this spring, it'd be dumb for the Twins not to take a look at somebody who has, fairly recently, provided Cy Young caliber peripheral work, has a strong track record of health, and will be available on a one year deal.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I'm going to assume the untouchable/available breakdown at the end of the article comes from reporting and not prospect/player analysis. So, my personal yes/no for the Twins on those guys would be:

Yes:
Delgado
Teheran
Medlen
Minor

No:
Hudson
Beachy
Hanson
Maholm
Gilmartin

I can't imagine they're interested in trading Medlen. So scratch him. I'm surprised to see Teheran mentioned in the "available" pile, but I guess that's what happens when you don't make that last breakthrough. Prospect writers were less concerned with a slightly declining velocity than his continued struggle to develop a workable breaking pitch to go with his changeup. Apparently the fastball is kind of straight too.

Minor is a bit too Twins-y for me, but he's left-handed, better than what we've got, and still pre-arb. Delgado could be headed toward the pen, but he's got power stuff if he can stay in the rotation. So there you go.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/177796641.html?refer=y

Twins, Braves have what the other team needs
Article by: JOE CHRISTENSEN , Star Tribune Updated: November 8, 2012 - 7:34 AM

Baseball's general managers' meetings are getting under way with the Braves needing outfielders and the Twins in search of major-league ready starting pitching.

INDIAN WELLS, CALIF. - Trade talks are intensifying at baseball's general managers' meetings, and it's hard to imagine two teams matching up better than the Twins and Atlanta Braves. Each side has exactly what the other side wants.

The Braves need a center fielder and leadoff hitter with Michael Bourn expected to leave as a free agent, and they want a righthanded power hitter to play left field. Hello? Paging Denard Span and Josh Willingham.

The Twins wouldn't part with either outfielder without getting major league-ready starting pitching in return. The Braves have so much of that, in so many different varieties, it's almost silly.

"We have from veteran-veterans, like Tim Hudson, all the way down to rookies that are ready to break through that are top prospects," Braves GM Frank Wren said Wednesday. "We're looking at every possible opportunity to fill out our needs the way we need to fill it."

Moments before Wren said this, Twins GM Terry Ryan was tiptoeing around a question about the Braves. Ryan refuses to detail trade discussions publicly but said: "Anybody that's got numbers or anybody that's got a possibility maybe of having a lot of depth, then, more than likely, we have talked to them.

"They aren't just going to distribute pitching to other clubs unless they can get something back that fills a need. Some way or another, we kind of know who we match up with."

The Tampa Bay Rays also have a starting pitching surplus and need to replace free-agent center fielder B.J. Upton, but for now, it doesn't sound like they match up as well with the Twins as Atlanta does. Maybe the Braves are hungrier to make a deal after collapsing down the stretch in 2011 and losing this year's National League wild-card game to the Cardinals.

Span is the Twins' most logical trade chip because he's under contract for two more years at a team-friendly rate, and the Twins can replace him in center field with Ben Revere.

Ryan has said no player is untouchable but also knows it would be extremely tough replacing Willingham's powerful righthanded bat. Atlanta has shown interest in Willingham in the past, and the Alabama native looks even more appealing now, coming off a career season.

Willingham's contract looks like a steal, with two more years at $7 million apiece, so he would command a bigger return than Span in a trade. What can the Braves offer? Here's a snapshot look at their vast starting pitching catalog:

Virtual untouchables
• Tim Hudson (age 37): The 197-game winner is the staff leader.

• Kris Medlen (27): He went 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA this year.

• Mike Minor (25): The lefthander went 6-4 with a 2.16 ERA in the second half.

• Brandon Beachy (26): Another budding force, he had Tommy John surgery in June.

Available, at a price
• Randall Delgado (22): He went 4-9 with a 4.37 ERA this year with a fastball that averaged 92 miles per hour. Atlanta agreed to trade him to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster, but Dempster vetoed the deal.

• Tommy Hanson (26): Once considered one of the sport's best prospects, he went 13-10 with a 4.48 ERA this year with a fastball averaging 89.7 mph. He's entering his arbitration years and has Scott Boras for an agent.

• Paul Maholm (30): The Twins pursued this lefty as a free agent last year. Atlanta just picked up his $6.5 million option. He went 13-11 with a 3.67 ERA this year with a fastball averaging 87.4 mph.

• Julio Teheran (21): Baseball America listed him as the game's No. 5 prospect last winter, three spots behind Mike Trout. But Teheran posted a 5.08 ERA at Class AAA with a fastball that was 91-93 mph, down from 93-95 last year.

• Jair Jurrjens (26): He'll be non-tendered after posting a 6.89 ERA this year, so if the Twins want him, they can wait until he hits free agency. He went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 2011.

• Sean Gilmartin (22): He's a Scott Diamond clone who'll be knocking on the door at Class AAA this season.

The Braves might trade Delgado or Hanson for Span, though it could take other pieces to complete the deal. If the Twins offer Willingham, they might be able to get Teheran. Atlanta needs a left fielder because Martin Prado is moving to third base, with Chipper Jones retiring.

One thing's clear: Atlanta is in position to deal from its strength.

"Any time someone says you have excess pitching, you cringe a little bit because that's not generally the case," Wren said. "But I think you have to be realistic as well. We like our pitching staff the way it's constituted. We like our young guys a lot, but as we put our team together, if something makes sense, we're open to discussing it."

Joe Christensen jchristensen@startribune.com

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

This will be an interesting year for him positionally. Ft. Myers is a pretty tough place to hit for power, so if Sano continues apace in the form of an excellent offensive performance with flaws (high-K, etc) then he'll stay on a level-by-level track and will be freer to continue learning third on the fly. If the flaws start to iron out and he keeps hitting for power and drawing walks as a more complete hitter, then a positional shift may be likely just for the purpose of not standing in the way of the bat.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18861

BPro: "Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins (Oriente-DWL): 3-for-4, HR (1), 2 RBI. One of the best parts about taking over the Minor League Update is being on an email list where the Baseball Prospectus prospect experts have been discussing the Top Prospect Rankings. Thus, I'm getting the behind the scenes look at how these rankings come together, which is really quite fascinating. A recent discussion on whether 2012 1st Round Draft pick Byron Buxton or Sano should be the Twins' #1 prospect has been particular interesting. The answer will be revealed in a few days when the Twins' list is released. Anyways, Sano homered and committed a fielding error on Wednesday. Just another day at the office for the 19 year-old power prospect."

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

He started his Puerto Rico League season this week and stands at .400/.412/.467 so far. The things to watch with Rosario in 2013 will be his position and his plate discipline.

On the latter count, Rosario started 2012 with an extremely disciplined approach, and stood at a nearly 1:1 K:BB rate until breaking his face on a linedrive this summer. When he returned, it seemed pretty clear that he was trying to make up for lost time by swinging, and the results weren't as pretty as his awesome first-half results. To be sure, a 20 year old at a new position hitting .295/.345/.490 in the MWL is a great, great thing. But he doesn't have the same power profile as (apparent BFF, if Instructional League reports are to be believed) Sano - partly because nobody in the minorleagues does and partly because Rosario is 6'0" and 170 lbs. and he profiles as more of the gap-to-gap type that he was in Beloit last year than the guy who outhomered Miguel Mejor in E-town. To be sure, that gap power is substantial. Dude hit 32 doubles in 95 Midwest League games last year. But Ft. Myers is where power goes to die and he's going to need to remember the strikezone when he puts on that Miracle uniform this spring.

His defense is another thing. Reports on his work ethic are impeccable, and whoever talked with the STrib about Instructs said the Twins were happy with his development at the position. But more and more in chats with prospect writers this winter, they're predicting his a centerfielder in the end. In most organizations, that's not a bad outcome given his bat. Shit, neither is a corner outfield position. But we've got those and as an outfielder he's outranked by a number of guys.

Luckily, the Twins are going to keep taking a shot at second and I'm hoping that playing on his home island, a place that produced Roberto Alomar and presumably knows a thing or two about quality 2B-men, will keep that upward curve going. Because I'd really like to fit all of these bats in a ... September of 2014 lineup?

Oh to dream. This is impractical for a couple reasons, but still.

1. Denard Span - LF
2. Eddie Rosario - 2B
3. Joe Mauer - C
4. Miguel Sano - 3B
5. Oswaldo Arcia - RF
6. Josh Willingham - DH
7. Aaron Hicks - CF
8. Chris Parmelee - 1B
9. Levi Michael - SS

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

This would make Jose Molina's receiving a five win attribute for him. That's... huge. And it's worth thinking about how this affects the Twins as well. The last time I saw catcher rankings for this, Mauer ranked pretty well. This is important as a lot of the plainer (but not unimportant) trappings of catcher defense have pointed towards a decline in Mauer. I think a lot of his baserunner difficulties can also be blamed on a largely indifferent pitching staff, but he's clearly not the threat to basestealers he used to be.

But the Twins need pitch framing for a command/control staff. Relevantly, Ryan Doumit generally ranks very, very poorly in these.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18896

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

People in Twinsbloggerland seem to think that this is steep, but given Baker's ability to miss bats and the success rate of tj surgery on established pitchers like Baker, it seems perfectly priced to me. And him getting workload incentives doesn't make the deal worse to me. A good Scott Baker season is worth 7mm.

Anyhow, one fewer high-K option.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

though, i am fine without having baker in our rotation next year. bring on the devil i don't know!

i wonder if the twins really had a shot at re-signing him after the back and forth over injury diagnosis and the twins front office calling him a pussy.

But my cutoff number was a fair amount higher than this deal. There was a lot of garment rending at TwinsDaily about what this means for the price of free agent pitching, but apparently I (and you, it seems) were prepared for the cost of average-with-upside.

>i wonder if the twins really had a shot at re-signing him
>after the back and forth over injury diagnosis and the twins
>front office calling him a pussy.

A month ago, I'd have agreed entirely. But in the past 4-5 weeks it really seemed that was kind of all in the past. I had been led from LEN3 and Mackey and others to think that both sides were fine just ripping up the option and starting from scratch on a new deal that would, inevitably, get done.

Oh well.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

This makes sense. I still think the Twins should have sprung for what the Cubs did (a full-strength Baker might be worth a qualifying offer for draft compensation, which is like a really expensive team option with a consolation prize) but a team option is the traditional give-and-take of a one year make good deal with a slightly higher than expected guaranteed base.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/179136771.html

Baker agrees to sign with the Cubs; Twins wanted him back, but 2014 option was the sticking point
Posted by: Joe Christensen under Twins pitching Updated: November 13, 2012 - 11:50 AM 74 commentsprint

The Twins had interest in re-signing Scott Baker, and the righthander had interest in coming back to Minnesota, but negotiations reached a sticking point before Baker agreed to sign with the Cubs on Tuesday.
Baker's new deal with the Cubs will pay him $5.5 million guaranteed, with an additional $1.5 million in incentives, a person familiar with the contract confirmed.

Baker missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John ligament-replacement surgery in his right elbow. The Twins declined a $9.25 million option for next year, letting him become a free agent.
Two weeks ago, Baker said the sides were making progress toward a new deal. But, according to the person familiar with his new contract, the Twins insisted on the deal including an option for 2014. Baker, 31, wanted a deal that would let him re-establish his value and then test the market again next fall.

In the end, the Twins weren't really that close, so Baker is heading to the Cubs. He went 63-48 with a 4.15 ERA in seven years with Minnesota.

The Twins are moving forward with Scott Diamond as the only starter penciled into their 2013 starting rotation.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Fun with hypotheticals.

The Blue Jays coughed up toolsy CFer Jake Marisnick, shortstop prospect Adeiny Hechevarria, starting MLB shortstop Yunel Escobar, overrated catch and throw backstop Jeff Mathis, LHP prospect with #3 upside Justin Nicolino in low-A, starting RHP Henderson Alvarez, and a minor league RHP with rotation potential in Anthony DeSclafani.

First, the matches.

-The Twins have an overrated catch and throw backstop that I'd love to give up, Drew Butera. Substitute him for Mathis.

-I think Jake Marisnick is presently a left-handed Joe Benson, but since Joe Benson just had a rough, injured year then we can't pretend they're equal as prospects. Revere doesn't match Marisnick's toolsy profile, though he might be palatable to an NL team. Hicks is a better prospect than Marisnick, but he's probably the closest match in terms of profile and readiness.

-If our middle infield depth included two shortstops we could afford to give up in trade, then we'd use one of them to provide a real solution at the MLB level. Instead, we have a volume of scratch-offs. Hechevarria is a little sexier because Cuban signees have been successes lately instead of tremendous flops, but I don't think he's that great. One of our glove-first guys could probably match him in terms of likely output, but they might not be a favorite with the Marlins. Let's take a guess and say Eduardo Escobar works though.

And now the non-matches, with a try at finding something:

-We don't have a left-handed pitching prospect like Nicolino. His commonly cited upside is a 3, but I've seen people call him a 2 and I'd definitely be in here shouting that if the Twins traded for him. Gibson and Berrios have similar upside, but neither is a lefty. Berrios can't be traded because he was drafted too recently, so call Gibson here and hope that his proximity to the majors covers some of the gap. If he's healthy, that could cover the rest of it too.

-We don't have a young starter with Henderson Alvarez' fastball. The odd thing, though, is that Henderson Alvarez' heat doesn't really mean strikeouts. Let's sub in another low-K pitcher to cover both Alvarez' cheap durability and Nicolino's left-handedness. Scott Diamond.

-Sclafini is largely unknown to me, but let's throw in somebody who went to college and has a chance to start, Madison Boer.

-Yunel Escobar is getting a reputation as a pain in the ass and has had more bad years than good. But he's an MLB shortstop who's had a strong offensive year and people will remember that potential. Twins don't have that to offer. I think there's like a 40% chance that Brian Dozier could match his 2013 production, but Dozier isn't a match in terms of what the Marlins traded for. Still, in Escobar and with 4mm in cash, the Marlins took some money off the Jays hands which isn't represented here. So let's call it Dozier since he could stand in an MLB infield next year.

So that's what we give up. Butera, Hicks, Gibson, Escobar, Diamond, Boer, and Dozier.

In return, we get Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, Bonifacio. Buck does us absolutely no good, even with Butera gone. So he'll need to be flipped for whoever will take him. But the rest would be really valuable parts that could fill out a rotation that's in huge disproportion to a lineup that could be close to contending.

So what do you say? Would it be worth it?

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>So that's what we give up. Butera, Hicks, Gibson, Escobar,
>Diamond, Boer, and Dozier.
>
>In return, we get Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John
>Buck, Bonifacio. Buck does us absolutely no good, even with
>Butera gone. So he'll need to be flipped for whoever will take
>him. But the rest would be really valuable parts that could
>fill out a rotation that's in huge disproportion to a lineup
>that could be close to contending.
>
>So what do you say? Would it be worth it?

i hate giving up youth, but the pieces returned would go a long way to capitalizing on mauer (and morneau?) in his "peak" years. hicks and gibson hurt the most, but with our OF prospects and johnson coming back, i don't hate the trade.

>i hate giving up youth, but the pieces returned would go a
>long way to capitalizing on mauer (and morneau?) in his "peak"
>years. hicks and gibson hurt the most, but with our OF
>prospects and johnson coming back, i don't hate the trade.

Hicks and Gibson aren't just good prospects, but two personal favorites. But getting steady above-average durability in Buehrle, a real-life ace if he stays on the field in Johnson, and a good starting shortstop with Reyes is a great return. And like the Jays, we don't give up any top-50 prospects like Sano, Buxton, or Arcia.

The missing factor here is the money, which I didn't bother adding up. Buehrle and Reyes have terrible back-loaded contracts, and though Johnson's deal isn't bad, he's done after 2013.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

New writer with a kind of obnoxious authorial sensibility, Jason Parks, is providing a format that doesn't really lend itself to being swiped. At least not if I don't want to spend all morning formatting it. So, we'll go player-by-player in separate posts with the relevant excerpts. But first, here's a different writer offering a review of the system, which is pretty strong tempered with extreme disappointment with both the MLB roster and the few 25-and-under talents on the MLB roster:

"Ben Revere has grown into a fine defensive outfielder who offers positive value on the bases but negative value in the batter’s box, profiling best as a second-division starter. Outside of Revere on the positional side, Chris Parmalee and Erik Komatsu are the epitome of replacement-level players, capable of providing some utility off the bench but likely exposed as subpar producers if pressed into daily service. The outlook is similarly bleak on the mound, where only Liam Hendriks profiles as a potentially useful regular (most likely as an arm at the back-end of a rotation). Both Alex Burnett and Tyler Robertson could carve out roster space as mop-up/middle guys in the pen. Though time still remains for each to develop, the struggles of back-to-back first-round disappointments Alex Wimmers and Levi Michael have helped to create a hole at the middle levels of the system, though there is some hope that the wave of talent at the lower-levels could help pull Minnesota out of its tailspin a few years down the line. —Nick Faleris

A Parting Thought: The Twins could have as many as six players in the BP 101, and at least two prospects that profile in the top 25. The system isn’t crazy deep, but the graduating class from the Appy league could provide prospect fruit for a long time."

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Byron Buxton. Eh. This makes me happy because both these guys are pretty likely to be top-25 prospects in all but the weirdest end-of-season lists, but Sano's incredible power tool and quality production at levels where he has been young for his levels beat the Buxton lottery ticket right now. And it's not that I prefer to see some quantifiable performance over tools in all cases - I've remained a Hicks believer, after all. But I think that Buxton's range of (very impressive) tools don't beat Sano's smaller range, but similarly quality tools combined with performance.

Parks disagrees, though, and he's the one who gets paid for this. All told, if they're both this good then good for Twins fans. Buxton actually did have a pretty good debut after a rough start, so it's not like we're talking about some fully raw athlete standing around with his glove on the wrong hand.

A word on Parks' method first. I think he comes from an actual working-scout background, so he is all over the 2-8 ratings. No stars or letter grades here. So, you'll see him rate individual tools on the 2-8 scale as well as each players overall future potential (OFP) on a similar scale with one number. He gave a text breakdown of that, but for our prospects the easy shorthand would be that a 7 is somebody who could roll out a few star-level seasons, a 6 is a good MLB starter, a 5 is a usable regular but not somebody who solves a problem in perpetuity, etc.

Here he goes:

1. Byron Buxton

Strengths: Massive potential on both sides of the ball; elite run; uses speed well in game action; hit tool has plus projection (at least); impressive bat speed; strength in swing; big raw power that should at least achieve average utility; arm is a 7; overall defense package could be high-6/low 7; strong work ethic.

Weaknesses: Mixed opinion on future of hit/power tools; some only see average game utility at maturity; wide gap between present/future; limited professional sample; swing has some length; hasn’t faced enough quality velocity; approach is still immature.

The Year Ahead: While its possible that he explodes in 2013 and becomes a top-10 player in the minors, it's more likely that the tools need a few seasons to develop their game function, and as a result, Buxton will flash his promise more often than sets fire to it. Just be patient. If he develops to his potential, it’s a game changer.

2. Miguel Sano

Strengths: Godfather power; raw grade is an 8; current swing has all the necessary characteristics for game power (strength, loft, backspin); did we mention the power?; shows some secondary on-base ability; arm is well above-average; will play at hot corner or right corner; athletic for size (at present).

The Year Ahead: Sano’s big swing-and-miss tendencies might survive the Florida State League, as he can still feast on the mistakes of the unrefined or inadequate arms at that level. But pitchers with a plan can beat his swing, either with stuff inside or soft and spinning outside, so the real test might not come until he reaches the Double-A level.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

So, here we have the same tossup question dividing the third and the fourth prospect in the organization. Oswaldo Arcia has a much more limited tools profile than Aaron Hicks, but that's not a knock since Hicks has four really good ones, at least potentially. Meanwhile, Arcia's professional career has been nothing but performance with the tools that he does possess, hit and power. I was actually pretty impressed with his arm and defense when I saw him this summer, but nobody really cares for a RFer unless it's crazy good or crazy bad.

To Parks' credit, he's the first guy to acknowledge what I've been saying for more than a year now - that we have to stop talking about Hicks' boom/bust quite so gravely. His strengths mean that he's achieved a floor of a useful bench player. That would be disappointing, but it's not a small thing.

3. Aaron Hicks

Strengths: Owner of a high-end toolshed; arm is very strong; plays as true weapon in center field; above-average speed; above-average defensive profile at position; possess above-average raw power; above-average on-base ability; showing signs of refinement.

Weaknesses: Game still features the inconsistencies of a young player; hit tool receives fringe grades; bystander offensive approach often gives pitcher advantage; power potential is slow to play in games; swing can get long from the left-side, and he struggles to turn around quality velocity.

The Year Ahead: The evolution of his hit tool against quality pitching will ultimately determine his fate, and another step forward in 2013 could put him in a position to take hold of the major-league job as early as 2014. His approach has often been described as timid or passive, and despite the walks, Hicks needs to take advantage of opportunities when they are presented, and turn balls back with authority. He has a tendency to hit with a hose instead of a sledgehammer, despite owning legit power.

4. Oswaldo Arcia

Strengths: Good natural bat-to-ball ability; strong wrists; controls the bat very well; shows above-average bat speed; power plays to all fields; uses the gaps; projects for both plus hit and plus game power; feasts on fastballs, especially from right-handers; can square plus velo; arm is at least solid-average; will play in right field.

The Year Ahead: In order to take that next step, Arcia needs to face high-level pitching in a high-level environment, and those conditions can’t be replicated in the minor leagues.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Readiness, in this case. But also potential, since Gibson's stuff has looked good in the AFL. Sadly, the AFL has recently gone all itself on Gibson lately and I have no more awesome statlines to post. He pitched yesterday and in spite of striking out a batter an inning and giving up exactly three balls-in-play that weren't grounders, he left with 3 ER in 3 IP. Fun fact: infielders need to make plays on those grounders.

5. Kyle Gibson

Strengths: Fastball will work from 88-94 and touching higher, often finding consistency in the 90-92 range; pitch shows good vertical movement/weight; has command of the offering; all pitches on good angle to plate; slider can be an above-average offering, thrown with good velocity and sharp tilt; changeup is second above-average sec; some fading action, but plays well off fastball arm speed; advanced pitchability to go along with a plus arsenal and a big, strong frame.

Weaknesses: Before injury, stuff had a tendency to play down; was hittable in the zone; struggled to put away hitters; fit into command/control box; sources have called the overall profile a “soft no. 2 starter,” or a “paper no. 2 starter, not a game no. 2”

7. Jose Berrios

Strengths: Lacks ideal height, but pitches athletic and strong; fastball has zip, working at 92-94; touching higher; arm is very fast; good movement to fastball; easy plus offering; flashes two quality secondary offerings; hard curveball with two-plane break and a low-80s changeup with good pronated action; easy delivery allows for control; feel for command; pitches with purpose.

Weaknesses: Limited arsenal/physical projection; needs to work low in the zone to create quality plane; breaking ball can get loose and slurvy; pace can get erratic; general refinement necessary across the board.

The Year Ahead: The arm works very well, and the delivery is both strong and athletic. Size will always be an issue for some, but the arsenal is deep for his age, and his overall feel for pitching has received positive reviews, so he should be able to develop as a starter.The kid is legit.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

There's an interpretive problem with Rosario that I think some writers are solving in their minds but not on paper. The voices that he wont be a 2B in the end are pretty loud, but the evaluations don't seem to explicitly account for that possibility one way or the other. Whatever.

Rosario's "weakness" list highlights the importance of makeup. The Twins are betting that his reportedly excellent work ethic and coachability will turn him from raw athlete into instinctual baseball player.

Polanco is a surprise here, and the write-up made the reasoning even more surprising. Polanco was overshadowed by Sano and Kepler as an Int'l signee in 2009, but in most years he'd be the Twins big prize. The book on him early was that he was an extraordinary defender at shortstop, but might not hit. He hit in the Appy League, which got some folks excited, and splitting SS duties with Niko Goodrum (who I'd have figured would fit better into Parks' oeuvre) didn't really concern anybody because that's what happens at rookie leagues. But now he's apparently a top-10 Twins prospect *without* a plus glove at short? Odd. I think the answer is that the range of stuff he does pretty well means he profiles as a future MLB player (offensively non-embarassing utility guy?) more than the other toolsy guys behind him.

If you assume, as this list seems to, that Parks really doesn't want to throw any relievers on the list (Tonkin, Guerra, Robertson are all either MLBers or MLB ready and Jones, Melotakis, Chargois, etc. all look to move fast in the pen) then that pretty much works. I still like Goodrum better though.

6. Eddie Rosario

Strengths: Plus athlete; sweet swing from the left side; can barrel balls to all fields; shows ability to hit velocity and off-speed stuff; bat has more punch than size suggests; hit tool projects to 6; above-average speed.

Weaknesses: More raw athlete than instinctual baseball player; defensive development at second was shaky; better profile in outfield, where speed can help minimize errors; despite pop, some scouts aren’t sold he will approach game power in the plus range; poor speed utility on the bases at present.

8. Max Kepler

Strengths: Plus athlete; great size; improving strength; looks the part; has good run for his size; plays with balance and coordination; good hit tool; makes quality contact; swing is fluid and repeatable; power potential in the swing; gamer who can make adjustments.

Weaknesses: Good instincts, but doesn’t have above-average profile in center; range is fringe; arm is fringe; swing can get long; some velocity concerns; profile problem if he can’t stick in center; bat would need several grade jumps for corner profile.

9. Travis Harrison

Strengths: Tons of raw power; batting practice prowess to draw crowds; bat speed is very strength-driven at present; projects to hit for at least plus game power; hit tool has some backers; makes hard contact to all fields; hands and hips work very well.

Weaknesses: Doesn’t profile at third base; fringe athlete; below-average run; swing can get hitchy and tied up against velocity; game is tied to power potential.

10. Jorge Polanco

Strengths: Versatile; athletic; receives solid-average marks on hit tool future, his glove, his run, and his arm; bat has some juice in it; line-drive stroke; uses the entire field; gamer mentality

Weaknesses: Lacks plus tool; doesn’t profile as plus defender on left-side of infield; contact heavy approach; limited power potential; slappy at times; needs more strength in swing.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

2016 - Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco
2015 - Sano, Harrison
2014 - Rosario
2013 - Hicks, Arcia, Gibson

Harrison and Rosario's aggressive ETAs probably assume that their position questions are answered negatively.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

does it have to be glove++ or bat++ or both?

Starting the year at Ft. Myers means he's at the point where the Twins are most comfortable with in-season promotions. In that sense, having the glove hold steady and the power/walks not taking a step back either (given Ft. Myers' power-suppressing reputation, this would represent a big positive) would give him a real shot at seeing AA this season. And if that happens, a 2014 debut is pretty plausible. Oswaldo Arcia's path is the sort of analogy we can hope for, since the simple ability to not have Ft. Myers sap his power made the team pretty comfortable with a mid-season promotion (and apparently considering a September call-up if rumors were to be believed) to New Britain even though he really hadn't ironed out his difficulties with lefties yet.

Sano hasn't shown Arcia's ability to hit for average, but he doesn't have the platoon issue (which Arcia dealt with convincingly at New Britain) and he draws walks at a much higher rate.

All that said, if the Twins give up on the glove then 1B/RF Sano earns his promotion(s) almost entirely with his bat and the path becomes clearer simply by eliminating the requirement to develop a skill that he has a hard time with.

But since none of us really want that to happen, then I'd say the hit tool is the thing that, if it shows up average-to-plus then all of a sudden the ETA gets really close. The reasoning being that somebody with Sano's power who can hit for average is a star and stars don't follow the normal promotion curve.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

"I'm still enamored with power. For me, power is the back of a woman's neck, a dress strap slightly pulled off the shoulder, a picture of Tom Verducci on a bearskin rug. It's sexy. I fall for it every time."

The cool thing about this article is that it's not a warmed over scouting argument that you'd read. Like upside vs. safety. It's two guys with totally different profiles who both have the upsides of huge stars.

Prospect Debate
Buxton or Sano for Twins Top Prospect?
by BP Prospect Staff

Link to Minnesota Twins prospect rankings

Chris Mellen: I like Buxton over Sano. I think Buxton is going to need time to marinate offensively and it could be a slow process in the early career, but all of the tools are there for him develop into an above-average major leaguer. He's extremely graceful in center field, with the look of a natural at the position, gets excellent reads off the bat, and has an extra gear of closing speed. I did not see him unleash the arm, but my trusted scouts down at Instructs told me it’s plus. I got him as a future 60 defender and maybe more. There's leverage in the swing, with explosive hands that generate plus-to-better bat speed. The long poles are presently a very crude approach and pitch recognition. High risk for sure due to the development time in front of him. Buxton's going to need time to figure out his strike zone and build his base through repetition, but I think he's got the hit tool to push as a .300 hitter. I've got the power at about 20 home runs. Speed graded for me as a 70 and there was chatter that times were close to 80. He's an outstanding athlete scratching the surface as a baseball player.

Sano has the potential to be very one dimensional. I don't see him sticking at third base as he is rough, slow with the reads, and his feet stay stuck in the mud. The arm is plus so maybe the outfield is where he goes over first base. The power is off the charts, but he's very long-armed and I'm not sure he's going to be able to be the type of hitter than can consistently keep his hands inside of the ball against good pitching. He extends early, as a lot of big power guys do, and the hot zone is fastballs middle-to-away. He'll crush ones in that spot. I think he's got a good chance to be a major leaguer and do some things to make a good living, but we could be talking about more of a mistake hitter and lower contact guy. I find it hard to peg the hit tool presently and projecting off what I saw, he’ll have to make a lot of adjustments to consistently hit merciless major-league pitching. I'm interested in the feedback on him.

Hudson Belinsky: I'm also a fan of Buxton over Sano. Say each of them falls one notch below their ceiling. Buxton is still a monster, while Sano is a Russell Branyan type—fine player, but not finer than a Gold Glove CF with limited offense.

I've had multiple tell me things about Sano like, "You just hope the hit tool can be average," with very little encouraging talk of that actually happening. As of the end of the season, he was still looking lost against advanced secondary offerings. There are some optimists about his defense at third, but who knows how the body will adapt to the muscle that's on its way. Even if he sticks at third, he won't be average there.

We haven't had enough time to see if Buxton can really hit, but he's a 7 runner with excellent instincts in center and a plus arm. Fluid athlete, power is on its way. If he turns out to be a .240 hitter, he's still going to add plenty of value. But if he hits in the .270 range, he's a monster.

Mark Anderson: I prefer Sano to Buxton, but only by a small margin. I respect the tools that Buxton presents and his up-the-middle profile, but there are just so, so few true monster power bats in the minor leagues that Sano is a unique and potentially devastating guy. Even if he hits .250, he's still a middle-of-the order threat that can crank 30-plus bombs. If the pitch recognition comes even a little bit from where it's at right now, he's suddenly a serious force. I'm slightly more optimistic about him at third base than most. It's not pretty, but I think it can work in a weird, Miguel Cabrera sort of way. I'd go Sano over Buxton, but it's not by a ton. I'm also a big advocate of Hicks in the #3 spot on this list. His tools are obvious and after seeing him for 17 games this summer, there was legitimate progress made in actualizing some of those tools in game situations. His approach wasn't as passive this year, and he actually looked eager to swing the bat and be aggressive at times. He has the knowledge of the strike and pitch recognition for the bat to play at a plus level with pop, speed, and serious defense. I love the profile and if we're going to push Buxton because of the up-the-middle profile, I think Hicks deserves the same fate over someone like Arcia.

JP: I think it’s very difficult to compare a power-hitting corner bat (either at third or in right) with three pro seasons under his belt with a five-tool center fielder that was just taken in the draft. It's tough. You have to love Buxton's skill-set, and if everything clicks, his value to a major-league team will be enormous. But I keep coming back to something Mark said, and something we've echoed before. Legit power bats have become rare breeds in the minors, as the personnel of the game slowly change. Skill players are more common now, which isn't to say they are superfluous or the norm; rather, the five-tool profile is no longer a unicorn that only a few teams can posses. Power bats, those with 30-plus-bomb potential, are scarce, and Sano might be the best of the remaining few in the minors.

Yes; the hit tool might only play at average; it might play higher or lower, but you will find a steady stream of evaluators suggesting average is fair. The approach is both good and bad; the latter could cost his hit and power a grade at maturity if he doesn't learn to shorten up and stay in his hitting box; the former allows for some OBP ability and adds a dimension to his offensive game. The raw is ridiculous. It's game changing. It's lineup changing. He hit 60 extra-base hits (28 homers) in the Midwest league at age 19. So you have both potential and production, and when you factor in his impact tool, the total package looks special to me.

NF: I think that's a fair assessment. I don't remember if I responded to you or to the group when I stated putting Buxton over Sano requires you to project two years ahead. I believe Sano will continue to put up big numbers next year while Buxton will likely take some shots (he really hasn't faced advanced stuff, be it on the circuit or as a high schooler). I also think Buxton's reads in center are still way behind where they need to be for him to realize his defensive potential. That said, I would be fine with being aggressive with Buxton's rankings based on the fact that he has received glowing reports as to work ethic and the improvements he has started to make at the pro level.

NF: One more note: I understand the dearth of power bats makes Sano's power that much more impressive when stacked against other corners. I think the overall lack of power bats should absolutely raise value of that tool at the amateur acquisition level, but I'm not convinced it should add weight at the prospect level. Ultimately, we are still talking about production in the aggregate. Sano's power is elite, but his baserunning and defense are both subpar and will likely provide negative value at the MLB level. Additionally, there is at least a question as to how the hit tool ultimately develops (be it a 4 or 5, say). So when we project out ultimate production we are potentially talking about the power tool being 85 percent of his value generation, and needing to account for negative value his baserunning and defense are likely to hang on him. Buxton, while riskier from a track record standpoint, has the potential to earn value all over the field. I think he ends up between a 5/6 defender with potential for added value in the field due to arm strength (which is a high-6/7) and potential for kills/assists. I don't believe the power emerges as impact, but it can be solid. The hit tool can be developed into potentially above-average to plus. He's a 7/high-7 runner and has supposedly already made good strides in learning the finer points of baserunning.

JP: All good points. Buxton's skill-set puts him in a position to offer more value at maturity. No question about that. Knowing this, I'm still enamored with power. For me, power is the back of a woman's neck, a dress strap slightly pulled off the shoulder, a picture of Tom Verducci on a bearskin rug. It's sexy. I fall for it every time. It's either a glitch in my evaluation system or a poison I must ingest. Despite being a sucker for tools as well, give me that one impact tool that has a chance to be elite and I'll follow you into tomorrow.

I'm not sure if Sano's raw can play at elite, and I'm not sure his value outside of the bat leaves much to be desired. But not many prospects have a realistic chance to hit 30-plus bombs at the highest level, and I'm still smitten with that possibility. That allure could fade and fade quickly if the swing-and-miss overwhelms the profile, and the reality of what is left standing won't be too pretty. But in this particular moment, I'm still taking long showers with the door locked with Sano's power. Maybe it’s just a teenaged fad.

JP: After reading all your thoughts, and trying to keep my power bias out of the equation, I started working the phones. I spoke with and the vote was 6-0 in favor of Buxton. Sano received praise for the power potential, and game-changing power was mentioned more than once. Buxton was called the most electric player in the draft; his ceiling was compared to Matt Kemp; his power projection praised; his overall tool-package slobbered on. “We have the scouting to back up the claim that Buxton might be the most talented player in the minors. We are fully on board with that belief. But we don't know what he's going to look like before it happens. He could stumble. We have a good idea what the end result is, though. It's special."

Passing this along. I have to say, I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Buxton ahead of Sano. I love power and that isn't going to change. But I also love ceiling and I love tools, and you have to trust the evaluations of those that you trust. Buxton's limited professional record vs. Sano's production is the only thing sticking with me right now. This isn't a “highest ceiling” list, but when scouts throw 7s on the future role like its nothing, it makes you think.

Jason Churchill: Adding to that—I know of two scouting directors that much prefer to draft college players when selecting top five—they have never drafted a prep player in the top 10—and if they had the chance to draft 1-1 they both would have taken Buxton and paid him 90 percent of their entire budget to get the deal done.

Buxton could easily develop Adam Jones, Mike Cameron power, too. Even if we assume to a 75 percent certainty rate that Sano is a .270 hitter with 30 homers and limited defensive value, would you trade that for the 25 percent chance that Buxton is Adam Jones at the plate and average to plus in the field? I would.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Roberts made the final AFL hotsheet for BA with a performance that's looked exactly like his full season performance there. In the past week, he went: .400/.478/.850 (8-for-20), 7 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K, 1-for-1 SB

This mix of contact with some power (he'll show gap power, but he's not the monster he's looked like in the AFL) ended up with a .446/.565/.662 line for the full season and put him back on a track to someday make an MLB roster. That doesn't sound like a big deal, but he was a college draftee out of High Point University and repeated low-A this year for reasons that nobody seems to fully understand so it seemed for all the world like he was viewed as organizational filler in spite of pretty good results. Truthfully, that evaluation wouldn't be completely unreasonable. He doesn't have the offensive profile for a corner position and isn't a true centerfielder, but that's almost a better reason to promote an NCAA draftee quickly if he performs. Get to the truth sooner rather than later.

But a performance like this kind of raises some eyebrows because it's not 1998 anymore and maybe a guy with a doubles bat and a high-OBA starts to look like a valuable MLB player (if not a regular) even at a corner position. And as a bench player who can maybe fake it for a few games at a time in center? That's a real thing.

You'd be justified, however, in asking yourself why, even with positive signs in his development, I am telling you about a 23 year old tweener who hasn't played above low-A. Part of the answer is above, that he has a shot to get jumped to AA with this sort of performance. And part of the answer is that Nate Roberts does one thing extremely well - he gets hit by pitches. He has a good eye at the plate, to be sure, walking more than he struck out in the AFL and in 2012 as a whole. But he's also been hit by pitches in 7% of his professional plate appearances. That's higher than Alexi Casilla's career walk rate.

This entirely stupid skill is something that you don't really like to see in guys with star potential. Carlos Quentin, for instance, gets hit all the time and maybe should consider not doing that anymore. But Roberts isn't Carlos Quentin and I'm kind of in love with his gamer shit right now. He'd fit in nicely as a really valuable fourth outfielder in a couple years, which doesn't sound like somebody to be excited about, but given the stars and scrubs makeup of even good past Twins teams is something that we should keep an eye on.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>But he's also been hit by pitches in 7% of his professional
>plate appearances. That's higher than Alexi Casilla's career
>walk rate.

nomc.

The names I mentioned above, plus Alexi Casilla, were removed and there've been a couple of additions like the two guys from Colorado. But today is the day to finalize the 40-man before the Rule 5 draft. The Twins *could* add up to eight players, but given holes in their rotation that will likely be filled outside the organization and the fact that they don't have eight guys who need to be added or else will be exposed to the Rule 5, it's unlikely we'll see that much.

Seth Stohs usefully ranked the guys most likely to show up:

1.) Aaron Hicks, 2.) Kyle Gibson, 3.) Danny Santana, 4.) BJ Hermsen, 5.) Michael Tonkin, 6.) Bruce Pugh, 7.) Adrian Salcedo.

I think Santana's positional liminality makes all the pitchers before him more likely to be protected. He's a bat-first middle infielder who's only hit for one year. That's not really hide-able on a big league roster for a few years.

But this is a good look for system depth here. Hicks and Gibson seem like good bets to debut this year. Pugh and Hermsen have both settled into their roles and will likely open at Rochester, so a 40-man add means their tickets are stamped in case of injury. Tonkin has the talent to pitch himself up two levels to the big club (huge guy, huge fastball, huge slider) and our abundance of crappy middle infielders does very little to discourage a fast rise from Santana if he continues to hit and actually finds a position.

Salcedo is the wildcard. He showed precocious stuff in the lower minors and then settled into the usual Twins bullshit in 2011-2012 before getting injured. He has backend starter potential and my insane hope that he'll remember how to strike people out.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

No joke, Miguel Cabrera came up twice in Sano's evaluation. Once in the write-up and scouting report and another time in the chat. It was good to hear Manuel say that Sano's issue defensively is focus, and that there is potential there.

Twins Top Ten Prospects 2013
By John Manuel

1. Miguel Sano, 3b

Scouting Report: Sano has enough juice to earn comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton, the only righthanded hitter in the game who matches his 80 raw power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He's strong enough to hit the ball out to any part of any park and he uses his lower half well. Minnesota envisions him as a future cleanup hitter thanks to his present power, improved patience and pitch recognition. Sano is learning to lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone and pound pitches in his hitting zone. When he slows the game down, he keeps his fast hands back and waits on pitches. He showed a fine ability to make adjustments as 2012 went on, pulling out of a June swoon to hit .291/.398/.564 in his final 51 games. His bat attracts attention, but his glove does as well, usually for the wrong reasons. His defensive ability and where he'll play are the biggest questions facing Sano, who is large but moves well for his size. He has easy arm strength for third base, earning some 80 grades, and his errors come more frequently from lack of focus than ability. He made 42 miscues in 2012, the fourth-highest total in the minors. He did improve defensively as the year progressed, developing better instincts as he got more reps at third base after primarily playing shortstop in the past. Sano's hands remain hard, though, and he'll have to improve his footwork to get better hops and make more accurate throws. He's a below-average runner out of the box who's closer to average once he's underway. In addition to his playing ability, he also excites the Twins by showing leadership skills, even throwing in a dugout speech or two in his second language.


2. Byron Buxton, of

Scouting Report: If his blazing bat speed translates into power down the line, Buxton will be a true five-tool player. He'll need repetitions at the plate against better pitching, but his swing path keeps the bat in the hitting zone a long time. He'll have to learn to backspin balls a bit more down the line to have plus power, but many scouts think he'll get there. He's a top-of-the-scale runner who gets from the right side of the plate to first base in 3.9 seconds, with easy plus range and well above-average arm strength in center field.

3. Oswaldo Arcia, of

Scouting Report: Arcia's supreme confidence in his hitting ability rankles opponents at times, probably because they find it hard to get him out consistently. He walks the line between patience and aggressiveness well, pounding mistakes and showing plenty of bat speed to turn on good fastballs. He has improved his ability to lay off pitches out of the strike zone, and he stays back and balanced against lefthanders and offspeed stuff in general. He has lost some speed but runs well enough to stay in right field, where his strong, accurate arm is an asset.

4. Kyle Gibson, rhp

Scouting Report: Gibson's stuff has returned after his elbow reconstruction. He threw his four-seam fastball at 92-94 mph in the regular season and the AFL, where he started in the Rising Stars Game. He also threw strikes with his two-seamer and his plus changeup with sink that he long has used as an out pitch. While the velocity (80-84 mph) and good bite on his slider are back, he was still searching for his feel for the pitch in the AFL.

5. Aaron Hicks, of

Scouting Report: Hicks remains an above-average athlete whose skills are starting to catch up to his tools. He listened to Minnesota coaches and stopped swinging big for power from the left side, shortening up and improving his ability to make contact. He improved from a .228/.357/.348 performance against righthanders in 2011 to .287/.394/.434 in 2012. He's still more natural and rhythmic as a righty, batting .283/.359/.522 last season. A gliding runner, he has improved his basestealing reads and possesses plenty of range in center field. Once capable of throwing 97-mph fastballs on the mound, he retains a well above-average arm.

6. J.O. Berrios, RHP

Scouting Report: Berrios' has the best fastball of any Twins farmhand who profiles as a starter. He can sit at 92-95 mph while throwing strikes to both sides of the plate, and his strong frame helps him maintain his velocity. He commands a changeup with fade that's already solid and should become a plus pitch in time. His slider has its moments as well, showing some power and sharpness at 78-81 mph. At times his slider flattens out, and Berrios will have to be diligent about staying tall in his delivery to create some plane and angle with his pitches. He needs to mix his pitches better, too. He has the arm action and delivery to project average or better command down the line.

7. Eddie Rosario, 2B

Scouting Report: Rosario uses his hands well in his swing and has excellent plate coverage. His hands are low in his setup but quick through the hitting zone. Though he has slugged .538 in the lower minors, scouts and club officials expect him to settle in around 10-15 homers at higher levels because he has a line-drive swing and gap-to-gap approach. Rosario's average speed and range are less than ideal for center field, and scouts question whether his hands and throwing are good enough for second base. Minnesota has had him focus on making the routine play and turning the double play, but he'll need more work to be an average defender.

8. Max Kepler, OF

Scouting Report: The Twins long have believed in Kepler's athleticism, and he added maturity and strength to his game in 2012. He has put on 17 pounds since signing and now has the physicality to drive the ball to all fields. He has a sound, balanced swing, doesn't mind going deep in counts and has a decent two-strike approach for his experience level. He's getting better as he sees more quality pitching, and his next step will be hitting for more power against lefthanders. A plus runner when he signed, Kepler is more of an average runner now and moved from center to left field when Byron Buxton arrived in Elizabethton. Kepler's fringy arm fits better in left than in right, and he also has gotten work at first base.

9. Daniel Santana, IF

Scouting Report: Santana's best tools are his speed and his throwing arm. He needs to polish his baserunning skills, but he's a plus runner down the line and has well above-average speed once underway. His throws have plenty of carry and he has become a more consistent defender as he has matured, though he still tends to botch more routine plays than he should. A switch-hitter, Santana has good swings from both sides of the plate that are geared for contact. He has little home run power as a lefty but more pop as a natural righty. He put together more consistent at-bats in 2012, tempering his aggressiveness somewhat. His lack of plate discipline could limit him to the bottom of a big league batting order.

10. Luke Bard, RHP

Scouting Report: While he doesn't have his brother's easy gas, Bard pitches off his fastball and has above-average velocity. He sat as high as 93-95 mph as a starter in college and touched 97 as a reliever. His slider made significant progress in 2012, showing more consistency, depth and late bite. It's a well above-average pitch when at its best. He flashes an average changeup that needs more consistency. Bard has the clean arm action and sound delivery to become a full-time starter. He'll need to learn to sequence his pitches better and prove he can hold up in that role.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Another Miguel Cabrera comp for Sano and an argument that his arm is worth waiting on for 3B defense:

"He's got such arm strength that 1B would be a waste. Honestly the best comp I can think of is Miguel Cabrera with less feel for hitting. Cabrera to me defines being an 80 hitter. Sano has ridiculous power, will have little range at 3b when it's all said & done, but has such arm strength he'll make routine plays with more reps and a bit more dedication. If he doesn't care, doesn't want to be adequate, then yeah, he'll move to first. But an 80 arm is a terrible thing to waste."

Kyle Gibson goodnotes:

"John Manuel: The velocity was better; the changeup looks about the same, and the slider has similar shape and action, according to the scouts I talked but, but he hasn't regained the feel or command of the pitch that was a separator for him in 2010, his first pro season. But he might be the most important prospect in the AL Central. The Twins NEED Gibson to contribute in their big league rotation ASAP.I can't think of another prospect that the other teams are counting on as much."

On Hicks' year and adjustments:

"Joe, he has taken the Twins route, the one they seem to send all their guys on. For older jokers, there's a lot of Paul Masson to their approach; they'll make no wine before it's time, I believe was the Orson Welles tagline. Hicks made some adjustments from the left side, finally, and stopped getting so big with his swing. The question now is, what's his ceiling? Top of the lineup type? No. 6 hole hitter? My money is on 6-hole hitter, kind of Shane Victorino type of production. Some years, he's going to hit 15-17 homers. Most others, he'll be a good defensive CF and solid average offensive player."

Raves for Buxton:

"Byron Buxton is a total stud. It's hard not to get really, really excited about him. I was trying to temper expectations just to avoid such comparisons, but obviously, I failed. I would say that the ceiling for him is more Andrew McCutchen or maybe BJ Upton; I am not sure that he has the kind of feel for hitting that any Trout comparison implies. But he is so explosive ... he's not as physical as Trout but his explosiveness puts him in the class of some real superstars, and also makes any comparison to Upton kind of moot. Scouts wish BJ played with Buxton's burst. Wow was Buxton fun to watch."

On the combination of Sano/Buxton as best positional pair in the minors:

"As a pair of hitters, I will say yes. Comparable pairs include: pick 2 of the Yankees guys; Profar & Olt with Texas; Baez & Almora (and/or Soler!) with the Cubs; Correa and Singleton with the Astros. But there are pairs that include hitters and pitchers that I would put in the same company such as Zunino and Taijuan Walker with Seattle or Oscar Tavares & Shelby Miller with the Cardinals. I guess writing it all out like that, I'd take the Texas two-step just because Jurickson Profar is Jurickson Profar. But it's close."

On JO Berrios:

" The stuff is real; the polish and pitchability were surprisingly real for his age; the results were real Rookie-ball results. Now he has to do it 28 times in a season. That's also a very real obstacle. Usually the Twins would send a high school pitcher to his first spring training, then extended, then Elizabethton for his first full year; they will push Berrios. He has forced their hand. Will be very interesting to watch. I think his combination of stuff and polish at his age is pretty exciting."

On Rosario's chances at second:

" The better he hits, the better he suddenly seems at 2b. Teams will live with less defense if he rakes. The curious thing is how scouts uniformly give Rosario average power projections. He has produced above-average to plus power as a pro; there's nothing average about his production. In terms of purely evaluating his defense, he'll have to really get after it to be a 50 defender at second base. All that's truly required there are the ability to make routine plays, which you can do at a relatively easy pace, and turning the double play, which is the real art of the position. If he can turn the DP, he'll stay there, but right now I'd say odds are he winds up back in the outfield."

Somebody fishing for an early system ranking:

"Probably the best group of hitters. In a different system, Oswaldo Arcia probably could be a No. 1. I might take Arcia over Jonathan Singleton, for example. But the lack of pitching in the system keeps the Twins more in the 6-10 range in the game, maybe more 8-12, rather than 1-5. It is a special group of position players, at least I think so."

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I've thought the Reds were a good match for awhile, and Schoenfeld kind of takes the initial good matches (they need an OBA-leadoff type and a CFer plus some right-handed power and are ready to win now - we aren't ready to win now and need pitching depth) and runs with it.

Let's go with the good stuff here, both for the Twins and the Reds to make it plausible. First, Span and Willingham aren't just exactly what they need - but inexpensive and high-end versions of what they need. For the Twins, the Reds have provided high-K pitching depth both at relief and in near-ready starter (LeCure and Corcino, respectively) and have provided a good backend guy in Leake.

On top of that, the Twins get some really valuable extras for the price of... Carroll and Daniel Santana? That's where this goes blockbuster and it seems weird, but not soooo inequitable. If the Reds think Hamilton is a centerfielder, then Span not only blocks him but is a better player in spite of Hamilton's incredible speed. He doesn't really have a place with the Twins either, as I'd still rank him in back of Hicks (and maybe Revere, who is a better CFer having played the position) but if the Twins wanted to make Hamilton back into a shortstop (which he was not three months ago, so it's not a weird idea) then all of a sudden we've added some great middle infield depth.

Devin Mesoraco was the best catching prospect in the game a couple years ago, and has now fallen into the "catcher stagnation syndrome" that strikes so many prospects at the position that aren't Joe Mauer. You can read his stalling between AAA and MLB two ways. The first is that he's just a quad-A guy, which happens all the time. The second is that not getting worked into Dusty Baker's regular rotation has really cost him the chance to fail and then succeed at the MLB level. That makes him a great change-of-scenery candidate, but the questions then would be whether he can break the Twins catching rotation.

My answer would be "maybe". Doumit caught 59 times last year, and given his history is probably an equal bet with Mauer to have that workload reduced next season. A three-way split with Mauer/Doumit/Mesoraco where each guy takes 50+ games would work well as a starting point, with Mesoraco the one most likely to see that load double.

Compared to Schoenfeld's other suggestions, I think this one rates above-average in terms of fairness and below-average in terms of plausibility. MLB teams just don't address every need in one fell swoop like this. But it'd be pretty cool.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/30979/five-blockbuster-trade-suggestions

Cincinnati Reds trade CF Billy Hamilton, C Devin Mesoraco, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Sam LeCure and RHP Daniel Corcino to the Minnesota Twins for CF Denard Span, LF Josh Willingham, IF Jamey Carroll and IF Daniel Santana.

The Reds are in win-now mode, and as exciting a prospect as Hamilton is, what is he? A shortstop in the minors, he’s being moved to center field. He has some hitting and on-base skills, but no power, and his adjustment to major league pitching may take a couple of years. As is, he needs a year in Triple-A.

Span gives the Reds the immediate help they need in center field and the top of the order, while fitting nicely into the Reds’ budget. Instead of re-signing Ryan Ludwick, a good bet to regress from his 2012 numbers, Willingham is brought in and Carroll gives the team a better spare infielder than the Miguel Cairo/Wilson Valdez disaster of 2012.

As the Twins rebuild, depth is a priority. They have several good-looking hitting prospects on the way up, but little in the way of pitching. Leake and LeCure are solid back-of the-rotation arms -- which means they’re front-of-the-rotation arms for the Twins. Corcino is a decent pitching prospect who could be ready sometime in 2013. Mesoraco’s status lost some luster in 2012, and the Reds are better off sticking with Ryan Hanigan behind the plate, so he becomes Joe Mauer insurance in Minnesota.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

There's a hypothetical discussion where we hash out how important it is that a current free agent was arrested six years ago for punching his wife in the face. I will argue that this hypothetical discussion is unnecessary when applied to the specific case of Brett Myers, who has a much more immediate reason to not draw a Twins paycheck: he isn't very good at baseball.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/180652261.html

Agent: Myers wants to be a starter again, Twins interested
Article by: JOE CHRISTENSEN , Star Tribune Updated: November 24, 2012 - 7:44 AM
Ex-White Sox reliever Brett Myers wants to be a starter again, and the Twins need a few.

Brett Myers might not be the top name on the free-agent pitching market, but there's a growing sense within the Twins organization that he could be a good fit in Minnesota.

Myers, 32, began last season as the Astros closer and, after a July trade, moved into a set-up role with the White Sox. Now, the righthander with 97 career wins is looking for another starting job, and his agent, Craig Landis, confirmed Friday that the Twins have expressed interest.

"They're interested, or perhaps even very interested," Landis said. "And that's about as far as we are right now."

Added Twins General Manager Terry Ryan: "I'm not going to get into every guy we've contacted. We've touched base with most of the pitchers on the market."

But Twins insiders believe Myers will be one of their primary targets because he could be reasonably priced and probably would embrace the chance to become a rotation leader, pitching at spacious Target Field.

The Twins open the season April 1 at Target Field against the Tigers, and if that game were tomorrow, the pitching matchup would be Justin Verlander vs. Scott Diamond. After going 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA as a rookie this past season, Diamond is the only pitcher penciled into next year's Twins rotation.

Myers has made four Opening Day starts -- 2007, 2008 and 2009 with the Phillies and 2011 with the Astros. That's certainly not the only reason the Twins are interested, but that footnote speaks to his experience.

Myers was a first-round pick -- No. 12 overall -- by the Phillies out of Englewood High School in Jacksonville, Fla., in 1999. He was arrested after a fight in 2006 with his wife, Kim, outside a bar near Fenway Park, but charges were eventually dismissed. The couple now has four children.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Myers has made $52 million in his career. After eight years with the Phillies, he signed a one-year, $5.1 million deal with the Astros in 2010. He went 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA and pitched 223 2/3 innings that year, prompting Houston to give him a two-year, $23 million extension.

He was a starter again in 2011, going 7-14 with a 4.46 ERA in 216 innings but returned to a closing role for Houston this year, as he'd done for the Phillies in 2007.

In 70 combined appearances for Houston and Chicago this year, Myers posted a 3.31 ERA, averaging 5.6 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings.

Myers' fastball averaged just 88.4 mph when he was a full-time starter in 2011 but jumped to 91.6 this past year as a reliever, according to Fangraphs.com.

"He's pretty much focused on finding a starting job," Landis said. "If we did a multiyear deal, and somebody wants to put him in the bullpen, he's done that twice before."

It's uncertain how many teams besides the Twins are interested in Myers. Some free-agent options already have come off the board, including Scott Baker (Cubs), Jeremy Guthrie (Royals) and Hiroki Kuroda (Yankees).

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Short story: it's the Medlen approach.

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_How_does_a_healthy_Kyle_Gibson_fit_into_Twins_2013_plans112512

The Minnesota Twins have some decisions to make regarding right-hander Kyle Gibson, who was recently reinstated as the team's No. 1 pitching prospect according to Baseball America.

Mostly good-problem-to-have decisions, considering Gibson "is healthy and finished with about 75 innings total" between the regular season and fall league, general manager Terry Ryan said. "We are pleased with his effort, performance and health."

With Gibson back to nearly full strength after undergoing Tommy John surgery 15 months ago, the Twins must decide where he fits into the 2013 blueprint.

Earlier this offseason, Ryan said the Twins will likely limit Gibson's innings to somewhere between 130 and 140 in 2013 -- much like the Atlanta Braves did with Kris Medlen, who pitched 138 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

Medlen underwent the operation in August of 2010, which is roughly the same timeline Gibson is on one year later. Medlen, who just turned 27, began last season in the bullpen for Atlanta, then transitioned back to the starting rotation on July 31, where he posted a 0.97 ERA with 84 strikeouts and 10 walks in 83 2/3 innings over 12 starts. The Braves went 12-0 in those games.

At age 25, Gibson is nearing the prime of his career without having thrown a single pitch in the big leagues yet. At this point, it makes little sense to stash him away in Rochester for a large chunk of time if he shows during spring training he's still healthy. But it also might not make sense to start him in the rotation in April only to see his innings run out in August.

The Medlen approach seems like a good one for the Twins.

Gibson started strong in the Arizona Fall League but sputtered late, ultimately posting a 5.40 ERA in 23 1/3 innings over six starts. Gibson struck out 28, walked eight and didn't allow a home run.

One baseball person who saw Gibson's outings in the Arizona Fall League said the right-hander maintained a 93-94 mph fastball with a good slider in his final start, which are both good signs. Gibson's command was sharp through his first three starts, but it slipped in the latter three.

Gibson's biggest strengths as a pitcher are location and his ability to induce groundballs with a two-seam fastball that rides down and in to right-handed hitters. In his first fall league start, for instance, Gibson went five scoreless innings without reaching a three-ball count once.

Business has been slow for the Twins so far this offseason, which shouldn't come as a surprise -- for the Twins or any other team.

Aside from Torii Hunter, who signed before Thanksgiving for the second time in five years, most free agents wait until the Winter Meetings (early Dec.) or later to ink contracts. And most trade discussions don't heat up until general managers meet face-to-face at the Winter Meetings.

That said, the Twins needed four starting pitchers when the season ended on Oct. 3. Nearly two months later, they still need four starting pitchers.

With only one man penciled into next year's rotation -- Scott Diamond -- the Twins' front office has decided internally they'd like to add three starters via free agency or trade, leaving the final spot for a guy like Gibson, or whoever else shows improvement during spring training.

With Jeremy Guthrie (three years, $25 million), Hunter (two years, $25 million) and Melky Cabrera (two years, $16 million) all signing relatively large contracts, it appears as if bargains will be difficult to come by.

The Twins have been in contact with representatives for nearly every free agent pitcher on the market, perhaps most notably Brett Myers, who wants to return to a starting role after pitching in relief for the Astros and White Sox last season. Myers would certainly eat innings (he pitched 223 2/3 and 216 innings in 2010 and 2010 for Houston), but it's unlikely he'd be anything more than a No. 4 or No. 5-caliber starter.

The majority of baseball evaluators see Gibson topping out as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter long-term.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

He could be one of the highest upside bargains available. Plus, I've absolutely been in the tank for him since forever. Go. Do.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/181081341.html?refer=y&refer=y

Source: Twins consider bringing back Liriano
Article by: LA VELLE E. NEAL III , Star Tribune Updated: November 28, 2012 - 7:01 AM

A source says the lefthander's reps and team officials are talking about a possible return.

The Twins' desperate pursuit of starting pitching this offseason might lead them to a familiar face: Francisco Liriano, the former Twin who's fresh off a two-month stint with the Chicago White Sox.

The Twins have had conversations with Liriano's representatives, according to a source with knowledge of the talks, and the sides are expected to meet next week at the Opryland Hotel in Nashville during baseball's annual winter meetings.

Twins General Manager Terry Ryan, when asked on Tuesday about their interest in Liriano, said: "I haven't spoken on the record about anyone we are interested in. Everyone knows we are looking for starting pitching."

Liriano, 29, had one of his worst years in the majors last season, going 3-10 with a 5.31 ERA with the Twins before being dealt to the White Sox on July 28.

Twins fans know Liriano well. He has the stuff to dominate but hasn't had an ERA under 5.09 for the past two seasons. The Twins would not consider bringing him back unless they felt he had a chance to turn back to clock to 2010, when he went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA. Or better yet, a return to his 2006 form, when he was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and made the AL All-Star team.

When he's on, Liriano has been one of the few Twins pitchers who could make hitters swing and miss, and resembled more than a back-of-the-rotation starter.

The Twins also have been linked recently to free-agent righthander Brett Myers, who is interested in returning to starting after working out of the bullpen for the Astros and White Sox last season. The Twins appear willing to trade center fielder Denard Span for the best starting pitcher they can get. Liriano's agent, Greg Genske, also represents free-agent righthander Joe Saunders, another pitcher the Twins might be interested in after he compiled a combined 9-13 record and a 4.07 ERA with the Diamondbacks and Orioles last season.

As of now, lefthander Scott Diamond is the only sure thing for the 2013 rotation. Righthander Kyle Gibson, the Twins' top pitching prospect, also could be considered, but it's unknown how he will be used in his first full season since Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery in 2011.

Liriano struggled from the start of last season and was relegated to bullpen duty for about two weeks in May. He rejoined the rotation on May 30 and posted a 2.84 ERA over a 10-start stretch before getting rocked for seven earned runs in a 2 2/3-inning stint against the White Sox on July 23. Five days later, he was a member of the White Sox after being traded for infielder Eduardo Escobar and pitcher Pedro Hernandez. Liriano struggled with the White Sox, too, going 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA during a failed pennant chase.

He made $5.5 million last season. How much will it cost the Twins for Franchise, the Sequel?

That will be one of the Twins' story lines as the baseball world descends on the Music City next week.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

while you're right, he does present the highest upside potential of the available -- AFFORDABLE -- FAs, he's also the devil we know. much like my feelings towards baker, i need new faces to engender interest or buy-in. to have to deal with another season of will he?/won't he? with liriano is ... ugh.

i don't need the twins to remind me; clearly, i might add, that they are out of ideas when it comes to starting pitching. at least go find some FA retread i have yet to see suck in a twins uniform and let me pretend they could pull a dickey.

Yeah. I can't even argue with you. I just always wanted to see Liriano: Big Fucking Ace happen in a Twins uniform. It's entirely extra-rational, with the tiiiiiiiiiniest wiggleroom for pointing out that his left-handedness probably puts him at the front of a pile that we are uniquely lacking anywhere in our system at almost every level.

>i don't need the twins to remind me; clearly, i might add,
>that they are out of ideas when it comes to starting pitching.
>at least go find some FA retread i have yet to see suck in a
>twins uniform and let me pretend they could pull a dickey.

Luckily, those are still out there. Shaun Marcum's can't-break-glass fastball has gotten even slower but has weirdly not stopped resulting in swings and misses. Edwin Jackson is probably waiting out the Greinke sweepstakes so Scott Boras can squeeze whoever finishes second, third, and fourth in that race - but he's literally *never* had a multiyear deal so I think that an early offer of 3-4 years (incredibly, he's only 29) would get some real attention.

Rich Harden is signable for a minorleague deal so if R.A. Dickey is your model than maybe you can dream that 2013 is the scratch-off year where Harden actually throws 180 innings without every cell in his right arm exploding.

I'm presently rooting for Seattle and Atlanta to strikeout on free agent outfielders and start asking after Arsenio Billingham or Denard Span. They've got surpluses of young pitchers with upside and we have giant pitcher-shaped holes in our roster. Fingers-crossed for B.J. Upton to Philly and Michael Bourn to... somewhere else. Washington?

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>I'm presently rooting for Seattle and Atlanta to strikeout on
>free agent outfielders and start asking after Arsenio
>Billingham or Denard Span. They've got surpluses of young
>pitchers with upside and we have giant pitcher-shaped holes in
>our roster. Fingers-crossed for B.J. Upton to Philly and
>Michael Bourn to... somewhere else. Washington?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8687612/bj-upton-tampa-bay-rays-agrees-deal-atlanta-braves-says-source

Free-agent outfielder B.J. Upton has agreed to a five-year deal worth $75.25 million with the Atlanta Braves, a baseball source told ESPN.

The deal is expected to be announced Thursday once Upton passes his physical. It would be the biggest free-agent contract of the offseason so far and the largest in Braves history.

Upton, 28, hit .246 with 28 homers, 78 RBIs and 31 stolen bases for Tampa Bay last season.

Upton made his debut with Tampa Bay in 2004. His first full season was 2007, when he hit a career-best .300 with 24 homers and 22 stolen bases.

The speedy outfielder's home run totals have increased in each of the last three seasons, but he has hit below .250 with more than 150 strikeouts in four straight years.

The Rays just gave third baseman Evan Longoria a six-year contract extension worth $100 million, but the team was in the bottom third of the league in payroll last season and was not expected to be able to afford Upton.

Upton will become just the third outfielder 28 or younger (as of Opening Day) to receive a free-agent contract of at least $75 million, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The others were Manny Ramirez in 2000 from the Boston Red Sox (eight years, $160 million) and Carlos Beltran in 2004 from the New York Mets (seven years, $119 million).

Upton will replace free agent Michael Bourn as the Braves' center fielder and provide a needed right-handed power bat for the lineup.

Bourn was the Braves' leadoff hitter, but Upton is not expected to fill that role. The Braves might shop for a left fielder to hit leadoff, with Martin Prado expected to move from the outfield to third base following Chipper Jones' retirement.

Young shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who hit .289 with a .335 on-base percentage as a rookie, could be an option to bat leadoff. Prado was the normal No. 2 hitter.

The deal with Upton comes only five days before the start of baseball's winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn.

Upton is an expensive addition, but the big move is not a surprise.

General manager Frank Wren said after the season he would have funds available to make a notable offseason acquisition. Jones had a $14 million base salary last season and Bourn's was $6,845,000.

Wren said he entered the offseason with "a pretty narrow focus" because he only had to replace Bourn and Jones.

"Beyond that, our club is pretty solid," Wren said after the Braves' wild-card playoff loss to St. Louis.

Upton adds to what Wren said is a "dynamic young core" of players. He will join first baseman Freddie Freeman, right fielder Jason Heyward, catcher Brian McCann and second baseman Dan Uggla as power hitters.

McCann's status for the start of the season is uncertain. He had surgery on his right shoulder in October. The rehabilitation could carry into the first month of the season.

Gerald Laird signed a two-year, $3 million deal with Atlanta earlier this month to serve as McCann's backup. Laird, who hit .282 with AL champion Detroit, could open the season as the starter if McCann is not ready.

Upton's agent, Larry Reynolds, did not immediately return messages seeking comment.