I've been insanely swamped with work-- and I haven't seen an *ounce* of tape from any of the overseas dudes, so I have nothing to offer on them-- but I'll list the players in order of the Athletic's Mock Draft (at least for the first round-- then I'll list notable projected second rounders, including the obvious Big Name). I'll try to post some thoughts throughout today and tomorrow. I know it'll mostly be me talking to myself in here... but it's a tradition at this point and I can't break it, lol.

I agree with the people who say it's generally a weak draft year-- but that's mostly because I think the very top is *really* unproven and the second round feels very thin in terms of NBA upside. Due to the extra COVID year, there are definitely plenty of older players who could theoretically make an impact right away in both rounds. I kinda also think there's good value in the back half of the lottery and middle of the first round-- and I've no doubt a couple guys in the draft will max out their potential and make an All-Star Game, it's just harder than usual to see who.

All that said? You know the drill. Get on record before these guys play a single NBA game as to how you think they'll pan out.

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great shooter but he's not big and he doesn't have a point guard handle

defensively he's a linen curtain

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... I feel like placing him alongside a big primary guard like Cade is legit the *perfect* place to maximize everything Sheppard brings to the table. Especially since Detroit desperately needs shooting.

If he goes to Houston... I don't know what to think. He can't play alongside FVV-- too short a pair. He can't play alongside Jalen Green-- disastrous from a defensive standpoint. Maybe you play him at the 2 alongside Amen Thompson off the bench? I know Houston needs shooting too, but that roster feels like a suboptimal surrounding cast to maximize Sheppard's potential.

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so guys like Sheppard who got better throughout the year and have an elite skill are having their weaknesses talked down (yes he's developing on defense, but those steals!)

*if* Sheppard can play point and improve his handle (which I think is average for his size and position), he's still not getting any bigger or longer on defense (quick hands? they're small!)

I don't watch enough NBA to speculate on fits, but you would think a top 3 pick would fit on most bad teams drafting that high

--------

You can swing on the overseas guys maybe, or guys like Castle/Williams/Holland have a lot of potential if all goes well, but there are no surefire stars, so it's all tossing darts at the board.

I think the benefit of guys like Sheppard or Clingan or Knecht is there are elite skills on display where you know *exactly* what you're getting-- instead of just swinging for the fences on a draft where the stars, if there are any, are likely to emerge out of the blue.

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I gotta get caught up

----------------------------



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"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

Elite passing, elite shooting, elite feel for the game, better defense than you'd think given his physical limitations due to his nose for getting big steals/blocks.

That said, will his ability to make plays on defense in college mean anything given how much longer bigger and faster NBA players are? And, most importantly, can he play point? The handle has to improve, and he's gotta be able to get past defenders and into the paint to do so.

Comparison is something along the lines of "imagine if Tyrese Halliburton was 6'1 with 6'1 wingspan." What does that player look like-- is he even a guaranteed starter? Not sure... but look. Teams need dribble/pass/shoot guys. So I can't not rock with a guy who is, at absolute worst, a top 3 shooter *and* top 3 passer in the class.

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Great size, great defense, smart player, good passer-- if he can find a way to be a full-time PG, I'd be even higher on him, because he'd have such a positional size/athleticism advantage. Does he have the handle to do so?

And, most importantly, will he become a shooter? Great finisher at the rim, and decent FT shooter... but his shot is hitchy, and I just don't trust him from 3 or even from mid-range. If he can shoot, he's a guy who could be an All-Star. If he can't... I still think he's got the size, motor, IQ, and finishing ability to play in a rotation.

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but even in the NBA, glue guys can shoot it

a scary pick for me

--------

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Best defender in college last year by a lot. Elite big man size, length. Elite rim protector. Sets hard picks, easy to see him as a pick-and-roll asset. Also not just some raw big man out there— good passer, establishes post position well. Not yet a FT shooter, but I also don’t think it looks bad, and if you told me got to 65+%, I’d believe you.

Can’t move in space well, not an offensive threat. Feels like “less mobile Rudy Gobert” is the comparison— which sounds like an insult, but, like, Gobert’s a massive regular season asset in drop coverage. There’s a world in which Clingan makes All-Defense someday if he can get his conditioning to the point where he plays 27+ MPG.

He's exploitable enough defensively in the playoffs that, in a normal draft, you're taking him back half of the lottery... but in this draft, I get why teams might be looking top 5. He can change your defense for 82 games.

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fluid shooter at different levels and can finish at the rim

not really a great passer and his defense will never be good

has limitations but with his frame and scoring ability I think he helps any team if put in the right lineups

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Elite catch-and-shoot guy. Great positional size/strength, net positive athleticism. Works hard out there. Not a good defender— but I think he’s got the tools to defend. Maybe he just didn’t work terribly hard on that end due to the defensive personnel around him and how much of a load he had to carry on offense?

Not sure he’s a “toss the ball to him late in the shot clock” guy as a pro— not really a passer, either. Put this guy in the right system, though, and he could be productive right away.

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Great driver, great finisher, good vision, works hard on defense. I’d argue his shot is more promising than consistent, even though he shot well on small sample from 3.

Needs time to put muscle on his frame-- but I think his frame supports it-- and given that he suffered a couple injuries right as he was starting to cook, I feel like we were denied his best basketball.

If you buy the shot, he’s a wing with great size who can dribble/pass/shoot/defend. I’d bet on the shot, personally— and if I’m looking for star upside guys, I’d take him higher than this, honestly.

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Undersized 2 guard, but insane athlete, great wingspan, absurd motor. Terrific defender. Wild how many rebounds he grabbed for a dude his size. Good pull-up shooter, though I’m maybe a bit skeptical on the 3— hit a ton of them last year, but you have to wonder if it’s a one-season sample, since he wasn’t a very good shooter before that.

But yeah, he's got PG size, which hurts— not really an NBA ballhandler, imo, and while his passing is fine, he’s not really a primary at this point. Again, if the handle/creation comes along and he could play point, I’d feel a *lot* better about him.

As of right now, feels like a bench burner who could start in the right system and make winning plays. That said, I also like betting on high-motor athletes like Carter to keep improving, so if he hit those improvements and became one of the better guys in the class, I wouldn’t be blown away.

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First off, he’s nearly bigger than Boban *without shoes.* Second, he’s one of the best post players in the modern era of college basketball. Utterly elite finisher inside, great footwork, soft touch. Elite rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. Best screener in college basketball— he’s big and strong, you can’t slip past him. He’s also over a 70% FT shooter, so you can’t hack him.

He, of course, cannot guard in space *at all,* and he’s not a shooter *at all* to date, so it’s hard to imagine in today’s NBA he becomes anything resembling a star. That said, he’s improved every year of his career, and he’s a big motherfucker, so I think at minimum he’d be really useful off the bench for a drop coverage team. I mean, Boban's stuck around for a *decade* off size and rim protection. Edey, health permitting, should do the same.

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I struggle to see him as a 2 guard off-ball, because he was downright bad as a catch-and-shoot guy last year— his numbers were pretty great on pull-ups across the board, and he’s a good passer for a guy his age, so you’re taking away his two primary skills if you take the ball out of his hands.

But I struggle to see him as a primary creator right now, because, at least last year, he couldn’t get to the rim, he’s not a great 3-point shooter, he’s an okay athlete at best, and he wasn’t a very good defender.

Still, he’s got good combo guard size, good feel for the game (especially for his age), and he was productive at age 18. If you think he can shoot, or you think once his frame fills out, it’ll help with things like defense and aggression getting to the rim, then there's certainly upside— but it’s hard to imagine he’ll be efficient in his first few years, so landing spot will determine a lot here IMO.

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Ignite’s a hard place to show yourself off for some— but in the limited games I saw, he couldn’t shoot, was reckless both with shot selection and pass selection, and didn’t defend well.

He was a big winner in HS though, and he’s got the size and athleticism. Maybe he goes the right place and is a transition weapon early while the rest of his game develops. Good player for those looking for an upside swing, because the tools are all there. High ceiling, low floor.

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lean frame that won't fill out too much more and he's somehow worse than Sheppard on defense

but off the bounce? scariest guy in college last year

not a starter but instant offense when called in

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Elite speed, shifty, creative, high motor. Really good shooter last year— IIRC wasn’t really known for being a catch-and-shoot guy before UK, but his shots last year looked *pure.* And his pull-up game is outrageous.

He’s also, of course, the worst defender in the class— a lot of that probably due to his lack of size/strength/wingspan. Then again, he’s also got the “UK Guard” thing, where they so often outperform their college performance at the next level. But the size/strength/wingspan… like, maybe you think he’s the next Trae Young, but Young was also the best passer in his class by a landslide.

I think the median for him is probably closer to “quality sixth man bucket getter” than anything else, just due to those concerns. But if you thought he had All-Star upside because the offense is just too real, I’d get it.

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Not a great athlete, but strong, shifty, smart— knows how to find his spots, knocks them down. He and Sheppard have the prettiest shots in the class. Really good rebounder for his size— again, has a nose for where to be, and isn’t afraid to play physical basketball unlike some other guards with his shooting pedigree.

He’s going to struggle defensively due to size/wingspan, but he also has enough strength and nose for the big play that he’s not a total wash here.

But man, he’s an elite character kid, he talks shit out there, and he was Duke’s de facto emotional leader by season’s end, which is crazy given how much talent returned. I’ve seen comparisons to Bryn Forbes and Seth Curry, but I think he’s better than both.

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I work at the rival high school and I heard nothing but great things about him from the principal (gets good grades and does nothing but positive things for the school). I'm rooting for this kid! I hope the Timberwolves snatch him up.

--------------------------------
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He'll go first round because he's 6'8 and hits 40% of his threes, but like... he's a little too slow and unathletic to be an NBA wing, a little too short to play a small ball 5. He's a good positional ball handler... but not really a self-creator. He's a decent defender... but probably not a net positive NBA defender given size/athleticism.

I just don't really know what he does. I think he should get a shot at being on an NBA bench, due to the shot and the IQ. But I wouldn't draft him in the first round of a normal draft unless I'm an end-of-first team that needs shooting at the forward position.

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Right now, he's a bad defender and not *quite* a good enough shooter to make an impact... but he's got really good positional size, he plays with a very high motor, and the tools are all there.

I think the shot looks the part, so combine that with the motor and athleticism, and I feel like he can become a solid rotational piece for a team, especially where he'll likely go in the late first. Just not sure it happens this year unless the 3s are really falling.

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not to a playoff team, IMO. Longo has it covered.

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What you see is what you get. Great size, great length, great positional athleticism. Elite rebounder, terrific presence as a rim protector. Not the best screener yet, but an excellent rim runner, excellent finisher at the rim.

Not a shooter, not a passer, not anything other than what he is. But that means, on the right team, he's an excellent bench defensive center with some starter upside in the right scheme. Diet Coke Clint Capela.

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He's got the size, and his catch-and-shoot numbers from 3 are quality. He feels like the prototype of an offball 2 guard. He's got the wingspan to defend... I just didn't really think he was a very good defender when I watched Baylor play.

And yes, he's young... but he's not very fast or athletic ("Stiff Hips"TM), so I worry that he's a 3-and-D guy without the D. In which case, he better make a shitload of 3s. His role is pretty clear to define, and the shot already looks good, so that's a first rounder in this draft... but I'm not sure I'd have him first round in a normal draft.

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Has great NBA wing size, has a quality NBA 3-point shot, and is a decent handler/passer for his position. I feel like, at Miami, you'd watch and see flashes and get it...

... and then you're reminded that Miami sucked last year. And their suckiest stretch was when Larranaga was relying more on George. He's not an athlete, he's not quick, he's not strong. He's not a good defender. Like... it's hard to imagine him as a winning NBA player right now.

Apparently he grew 11 inches between high school and the combine, so he might just be a classic "getting used to his body" guy. Maybe he figures it out-- the fact that he can shoot is a very nice start. But this feels like a guy where, if he sticks, it's at the very end of his rookie deal where it starts to come together. I'd let someone else draft him in the first.

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I bring up Arch because Kolek does give off that vibe of "I don't have a lot of size, I'm not a good athlete, and I'm not a great scorer, but I *am* a son of a bitch to play against."

Kolek's an elite passer and playmaker, maybe the best in the class. He's drained 3s the last two years, especially off the catch. He's terrific in pick-and-roll. He plays smart, plays with pace. And he's strong, he'll hit you, and he'll fight.

It's just hard to be better than a backup when you're an elite passing PG who isn't a good athlete and can't self-create well. Like... Kolek's a better shooter than someone like Kendall Marshall, but Marshall is taller than him and was out of the league in like 3 or 4 seasons. I believe in the 3 pointer and the passing and the toughness, so if I'm a contender in the 20s looking for a sonofabitch backup PG, Kolek would be my guy.

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I get the appeal. He's got great size, great at the rim, blocks shots well. Even made some 3s last year, which I know is why he's in the first round conversation.

... but man, big men with all the tools but low feel for the game and inconsistent motor? I'm out on those. I'm not in love with Adem Bona as a backup, but I'd take Bona first. Maybe in a bad draft, you take a flier and hope to get the guy to lock in, I get it... and obviously if he hits 3s and plays with more fire in the NBA, the upside is all there... but I'd be scared that I'd never see return on investment.

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If Clingan's the best defender in the class, Dunn's the best playoff defender. One of the best wing defenders in the last few drafts. And I expect that to translate to the NBA.

But he isn't good at anything on offense. He plays hard, he grabs offensive boards... but the shot is really bad, he doesn't create for others, can't create for himself. How will he stay on the floor?

I honestly think some playoff team *has* to take him first round, because I believe he's good enough to be an impact wing defender Day 1... but because he's a total liability on offense, it's an obvious gamble. If he could even be, like, a 33% from 3, 68% from FT guy, he's an impact player. I don't know whether to bet on it or not. But at this point in the draft, he's got the upside as a playoff impact player that most remaining prospects lack.

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I thought he'd be a better shooter than he is

--------

this isn't Duke hate
this is "my goddamn team's GM better not even be thinking about taking this dude" hate

especially in the situation said team is in right now

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that story about him, outlining why he supposedly fell (got Giddey'd by a Mormon lady) is sad as hell, and him landing in Utah says it all IMO

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I think he *has* to play the 5 at the NBA level, but he doesn't have exceptional size or athleticism. He kinda routinely struggled to finish at Duke at the rim against big men of similar size, and while he's underrated as a rim protector, I don't think he's big enough or explosive enough to be a real net positive rim protector in the NBA.

That said? The offensive package is very legit due to his combo of overall size and skill. He's a really good shooter for his size, he's a *great* passer for his size. He's got more handles and more mobility than you'd expect a guy like him to have. He needs to keep getting stronger, but he's not afraid of playing through contact. He knows how to cook slower bigs in space, he knows how to bully smaller players.

So he has obvious value on playoff teams, given that playoff teams desperately need big men who can dribble/pass/shoot. He's not on par with the names people will throw out-- but even having a bench quality/sixth man quality version of that role on your roster has value. I think he'd really shine somewhere that already has a big man of this mold-- who could plug in Flip as the bench version of whoever their starter is.

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Collier had a lot of hype coming into the season for obvious reasons. He pressures the rim really well, uses speed and strength to get inside, finishes at a tremendous level at the rim, and makes good reads for others.

... but can he do this in the NBA? He's short for a guard who'll pressure the rim well at the next level. He doesn't have the greatest bag either-- in fact, he's really turnover prone. On top of that, he's just not a very good pull up shooter or outside shooter right now. And while sometimes it's hard to judge the defense of these highly ranked prospects on bad teams, he didn't work hard on that end all year.

So if a guy like Scoot, who is stronger, has more of a bag, and is a better shooter, is struggling to finish at the rim and defend as a rookie... then, like, Collier feels like a major league project. Ultimately it comes down to shooting. If he can't shoot, then, like, this feels like a low-efficiency backup PG situation. Another guy where I feel like, if he pops, the team that drafts him won't be the ones who reap the benefits.

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to be the next annoying white role player

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There aren't many guys in this draft with his combo of shooting (very good) and passing (elite for the class). He's also got a nose for rebounds and ultimately just kind of knows where to be on the floor. He's a catch-and-shoot guy, not a creator, but that's okay for NBA floor spacing.

I'm obviously concerned about defense, as he's not quick or athletic, but he generally knows where to be-- he'll get burned in iso against good wings, yes, but he doesn't get out of position. End of the day, the shoot-pass combo is high enough that I'm taking him if I'm a contender and letting him work as a potential instant-impact bench shooter.

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As a big in today's NBA, you either need to be big enough to defend in drop or versatile enough to do some switching. Holmes is neither. He's a good shot blocker in college, but he's only 6'9, without great length or athleticism. And he certainly isn't mobile enough to guard in space. So I don't really know where he goes defensively on a team.

Offensively, he's got some goods-- good pick-and-pop shooter, good passer, good rim runner. Sort of an ideal pick-and-roll partner. But if he's a man with no country on defense in the NBA, he's got to be *really* good on offense.

I think you take a flier on him end of the first because of the offense and you hope he's not a total liability defensively. If he can defend competently, then he provides real value.

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but his lowest quality is defense. high-tier role player nearing stardom on the right team

(please be available for the Cavs)

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

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I had him in the top tier of my Cavs draft board (alongside Holmes and Tyler Smith) specifically because his skills are diversified for the type of wing he is.

physically strong, fairly developed offensively with a good shooting chart, was asked to do EVERYTHING on offense on an ass Cal team.

supposedly left Texas Tech (where he did most of his off-ball work) because of 'CISM

these were my thoughts before Cavs drafted him.

I think he was a good pick and my prediction of what he will do in NBA remains the same.

Yes, I'm mad. Let's move on.

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but I don't think the NBA is going to let you just run up and down the court

seems kind of limited otherwise

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He's got the size, the athleticism, the strength, and he's aggressive downhill and in transition. He's also shown he can be a plus NBA defender.

That said, he won't always have the ball in his hands in the NBA-- and he's just not a great catch-and-shoot guy right now. It's hard for players like him to succeed unless they're a consistent shooting threat-- look at some of the games where he's played against NBA centers, the UConn game with Clingan, the Duke game with Mark Williams. He just couldn't get it going because he'd run into a wall. That'll happen more in the NBA without some pull-up stuff, the threat of the catch-and-shoot 3, etc.

Still, in this draft, I'd get falling in love with the upside. He's just an older player and might be Just A Guy at this stage. Late first/early second feels right.

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He's strong, very athletic. Not terribly tall-- 6'10-- but he can make up for it, I'd think. He can't do anything other than be a rim-running, rim-protecting big, but he can do those things quite well. Not a post-up threat, really, can't dribble, can't pass, not a guy with any consistent touch... so you get what you get.

That said, I think what you get could be a 3rd big type of dude right away with some potential to be a backup in the right system.

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stubby and not a shooter though, so I think that's it

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Yes, he's undersized, and yes, he's not a scorer... but he's got real NBA speed, elite IQ, great vision/creation for others, and, even at his height, I think his ridiculous defense would translate. Lazy comparison would be something like Diet Coke Patrick Beverley.

Normally, he's an end-of-second flier, but there are just *so* few guys I think are capable of making an impact in any capacity next year in this class-- and Shead has the tools to do that. I'd draft him early second if I was a contender (imagine if Thibs got him at 38, lol).

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He's got NBA length, he's got NBA range on his shot, he's a really good passer for the wing, and he certainly tries on defense, using his size accordingly... but he's not an athlete and has no lateral quickness. So if he's a 3-and-D wing without the D... is he a good enough 3 point shooter to justify being out there?

I'd take him in the second in hopes that the stroke is real and he can become a 40+% shooter one day off the bench. I'm not optimistic, but he's got more going for him than others in the second.

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against Tennessee

seems like a combo guard who doesn't do anything NBA level

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last time I saw him play live, it was at ECU in the AAC tournament with about 20 other people in the stands

never would have thought he'd lead a major to two titles after that

anything NBA would be gravy for him

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