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hat's wrong with Ricky Rubio
By David Thorpe
ESPN Insider
Based on some trends going back to last season, there is cause for concern for the Minnesota Timberwolves regarding their injured point guard because right now, Ricky Rubio is probably the worst one in the NBA.
Those are not easy words to write, especially from someone who has admired Rubio's game for years (and who watches tape of Rubio with his 11-year-old son to teach him about vision and passing angles). And without a doubt, any examination of Rubio must mention that the aftereffects of a torn ACL and the subsequent surgery last in a player's mind far longer than the physical problems with the knee.
Must watch on ESPN
Don't miss Ricky Rubio and the Minnesota Timberwolves as they take on the Los Angeles Lakers tonight at 9:30 ET on ESPN.
My brother is board-certified in diagnostic radiology and specializes in musculoskeletal radiology. He reads MRI scans for hundreds of professional athletes every year. He has long told me that from the day of surgery it can take a year for full recovery. And my experience with injured players suggests the final stages are mostly mental. So it is understandable Rubio has struggled so much this season.
But the facts are pretty ugly. As Rubio made his long-awaited NBA debut after starring in Spain for many years, the one thing most talent evaluators watched closely was his jump shot. Tellingly, Rubio's shot disintegrated as the season progressed. In his last 17 games last season, Rubio took 165 shots and missed 114 of them. That's 51 for 165, or 30.1 percent.
In his 17 games this season, he is playing 11 fewer minutes per game. He's taken fewer shots per game, but he's missing even more than he did last year, going 23-for-83 (27.7 percent). In fact, Rubio is in the bottom eight among all NBA players in true shooting percentage at 41 percent, just above rookie bust Austin Rivers and the notoriously poor-shooting Jared Jeffries. No point guard who gets the kind of minutes Rubio does has a worse true shooting percentage. And as we delve further into his problems, we will see they mostly stem from the fact that he is not only a bad shooter and finisher, he is a reluctant one, too.
Why Rubio is struggling
Usually it takes a full season of play before NBA teams can write a good book on how to defend their opponents. Sure, they get a few basic things adjusted between one game and the next, but by and large, players best understand how to defend each other after a full season. Then add an offseason of tape study and coaching.
Rubio took apart the league when he first arrived because of his spectacular vision and anticipatory skills as a passer, and because his craftiness and long arms made him a plausible threat as a scorer coming off ball screens or in transition. Those talents often enable him to get by his defender, with or without a screen or on the break. Thus, he usually is playing to a man advantage.
All of those matchups favor the offense, obviously, and Rubio is a genius at finding the right man at his best spot to make a shot. However, the overwhelming problem is because Rubio is not a threat to score most of the time, that equation changes. Defenders are starting to basically ignore him. Instead, they work to cut off his passing options. It's not unique to try this against a special passer; remember years ago when the Dallas Mavericks tried this strategy against Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns in the final three games of their 2005 playoff series? Nash torched them for 121 points.
However, Rubio has scored fewer than 121 points in his past 21 games dating to last season. Do the math: Those man advantages disappear. The offense still is better off with those numbers than in a 5-on-5 situation, but not nearly as much as when it is a man up. With Rubio, the Wolves are scoring 86 points per 100 possessions. Compare that to Luke Ridnour (107) or J.J. Barea (103) and it becomes clear that his lack of scoring punch is hurting the team.
Rubio's reticence to shoot and inability to score hurts the Wolves another way. Because defenders are playing him for the pass and not the shot, they are looking to cut off his passing angles, and that leads Rubio to attempt passes with defenders waiting to pounce on the ball in mid-air. Thus, his turnovers are going up. Last season he had a turnover rate of 14.2 -- not great, but far from the bottom of the league, and easily swallowed next to his assist rate of 36.3.
He's managed to improve his assists this season to 37.3, because he's passing more than ever. But losing those angles have led to a turnover rate that is now the worst in the NBA among point guards playing more than a quarter a game. He's in the bottom 11 of the entire league, next to a "bad hands" contingent of big guys like Festus Ezeli, Hasheem Thabeet, Omer Asik and Joel Anthony.
Rubio not doomed
Looking forward, it is fair to say that Rubio still has a lot of room to grow as a player; he is not forever doomed to be the player he is now, or even last year's version. One of the reasons he struggles to score is he has been stuck mostly playing at one speed since his return. That one gear makes him far easier to defend. In the past, he was very effective showing a burst of speed when preceded by a slower dribble. So he is not creating the separation he once did, making him deal with being crowded more than he should.
A lack of confidence is something all players who have ACL surgery contend with. So I suspect as the confidence in his knee returns, we'll see more of those trademark speed changes. That will lead to more open looks inside, which is currently a big problem for Rubio, as he's making just 1 in 3 rim attempts after making 47 percent last season (although that's still a low number). He'll finish more shots, too, as he gets his legs back and is better able to jump to the rim. At least that should draw more help defense to his drives, which in turn will help him make the passes he really wants to make anyway.
For Rubio to ever be a legitimate starting point guard, he needs to be able to make short, mid-range shots and 3-pointers. Sure, his knee is not helping, as he looks off-balance on most of his shots. However, there is hope. The other day he took one jumper that looked as good as I've ever seen. It was perfectly balanced, poised and smooth, all net. That's the good news.
The bad news is, most bad shooters will look good from time to time. For Rubio, who has been a bad shooter for a few years now, it seems likely that he knows what he should do, considering how much coaching he has received over the years.
He still has time to figure it out. He is a special player, unique in his length for the position coupled with his craft and skill. Rubio is one of the best passers I have ever seen in my 26 years of coaching. Assuming he gets his health back, he only needs to prove he can score to become the starter that the Wolves and fans crave.
Absent that development, we can expect him to at least move up from the bottom of the point guard list, though ascending to All-Star levels seems highly unlikely. But even perennial All-Stars such as Nash, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, and Derrick Rose had to learn to shoot better. ____________________________________________________
Steph: I was just fooling about
Kyrie: I wasn't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8OWNspU_yE
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