I don't know how you get ready for a recession, but it's coming. I guess some would say we're already in a recession based on the two consecutive quarters of negative growth definition. But the RECESSION recession is peeking around the corner.

Despite the Fed's best efforts, they still aren't accomplishing their goals in slowing inflation. So they're going to kick it up a notch with their interest rate increase. That means unemployment is coming.

There was hopeful talk of a "soft landing" with inflation. But now it's looking like we're going to slam that plane onto the runway.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/consumer-price-index-september-2022-.html

_______________________________________

*cringe emoji*

But that has been hard since I stretched myself a bit then on some investments.

I think the main way us regular folks can get ready for a recession is make sure we have job security.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

we survived and made money but I think I also realized that I chose an industry that has a lot of room for growth. Just pure luck because I had no idea cybersec was going to be this hot.

my biggest problem though is cash reserves.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Good call.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

and was really thinking “I could get furniture for 50% off!!!

my FIL was like…” fuck yo couch, cyber security is the future”

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

of workers available for the field. it's a good place to be for money right now.

Y'all buy those labels, I was born supreme

got hit with my first adult lessons during the previous one
had rose colored glasses on before
changed careers because of that last shit show
got my wife right so i think we good

______________________________________

Navem nu, cuando sol
Tutu nu, vondo nos nu
Vita em, no continous non
Nos nu ekta nos sepe ta, amen

When the sun shades the ship
We sweat and life is not safe
To swim or to touch not
When we unite we hedge amen

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

Like it completely rewired how I think about saving and finance

I was also young and fresh out of school

Man they say that one of the top five most traumatic events an average person can experience is unexpectingly losing a job and I found out the hard way.

I was lucky because things weren't going well and I was interviewing at the time so I had a job lined up (with a huge pay cut).

I had homies who were out of work 2 years. You know how it is with black folks, we are the last to hire and first to get fired.

I was traumatized because for at least the next 10 years I'd operate with the fear of getting fired at any moment. I am a bit over it now....but the recession will bring back memories.




**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

1 of which was getting a better paid job at a stable institution. I'll weather it WAY better than I weathered the last.

I'll do like everybody else and go get an MBA during the recession. I'll come out stronger and ready to make even more money....until the next one arrives.

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

this was her first 'real' job. had it less that a year. shit's happening.

hopefully my wife and I will be good. we each have a bit saved and have made progress with trying to stay current with job skills.

Y'all buy those labels, I was born supreme

I like to believe my industry (cybersecurity) is recession proof but if ai lost my job not sure how long we could go before shit got ugly.

Which is why we got a Heloc. Got it before my wife left her job due to stress.

Its in the background and I only used it to consolidate a few high interest credit cards. We were going to start an expensive covered deck project but I’m going to wait on that.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

i mean, i work in tax, so it's pretty recession proof cuz taxes gotta get collected and paid no matter what.

i got more money than i've ever had by leaps and bounds right now so if shit gets dire we do have reserves.

i think we'll be okay. only thing i guess i'd be unsure is my wife's job, but if she did get laid off she could actually join me in my side-hustle and make more than she makes now the only issue is she doesn't love my side hustle like i do, LOL.

so hard times aint really that hard

but I aint trying to go back.. lol

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

mostly vintage clothing.

but i know people who resell all kinds of shit.

one lady i know is a stay at home mom whose husband has a good job. she resells modern women's clothing as an aside to being home and taking care of her 6 y.o. and 2 y.o.

last month she did $7K in PROFIT.

i know many people who do 100K to 200K (some more) in sales each year as a sole proprietor or like husband and wife team doing it full time.

we're talking clothes from thrift stores, aka shit people threw out.

last year i did $40K in sales and i just do it on the weekends.

i just sold a sweatshirt i paid $2.50 for, for $100 while i'm here at my desk working my regular job.

I could give you tons of nice stuff we need to get out of our small living quarters. Like we gave away my wife's whole professional wardrobe when she switched jobs.

And these kids keep growing out there close and my wife keeps buying them nice ish.



**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

I think PROMO is talking about stuff like this:
https://www.npr.org/2022/10/14/1128843922/vintage-levis-jeans-1880s-sold-thousands-racist-anti-chinese

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

some people prefer other platforms, or they use a cross-listing app to list on all the platforms.

i just prefer the listing process on eBay. it's the easiest one to use to me, plus it has the biggest user base by far.

i used to be on Depop too but i HATE their listing interface so i just stopped using it.

any opinions on shopify?

if you're just starting, you might want to try one of the cross listing apps to list across a bunch of platforms, then you can kind of try them all and see which ones you like or don't and just stick with the ones you do like.

I've read of horrible experiences when it comes to Shopify's trademark infringement algorithm. Wrongly flagging and suspending merchants. All the while taking customer payments while not depositing them into merchant's business accounts. Then trying to correspond with them beyond vague emails from Shopify is a pain.

Not saying OG poster is a shill or plant ,-I'm not-, it's just amazing how the talking points get "mainstreamed" when the right wing pushes them.

Remember the posts "Tulsi gabbard for speaker of the house" and "Girls in sports being raped (in terms of wins) by macho trans hulks!"

Note: If a recession happens after years of pandemic it won't be unexpected.


But:
We're at record low unemployment - it wouldn't be surprising if it moved back near or above the historical baseline.

Inflation is very high - and taxes are near record lows and profits near record highs. Wonder what's out of balance??

OPEC cutting our supply is going to increase gas prices and inflation?? Weird.

And talking points are also Europe is in recession - Russia doing just dandy. Also China in recession according to the right wing and the business/banking folks.

This is also being pushed by the emo feelings of investment bankers.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

The Fed is cranking up interest rates to slow the economy and try to bring down inflation.
They've been doing that for the past year, and got much more aggressive with it as of late when the data showed it wasn't doing much to bring down inflation.

Each new report of high inflation (like today's) opens up the Fed to be even more aggressive.

We have low unemployment now. But unless monetary policy has completely lost its effectiveness, unemployment won't be low in the future.

_______________________________________

This really is bigger than Fox News.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

I'm not denying there's an economic downturn - one that very well may turn into a recession - and I trust Russia and OPEC are trying to have it happen soon. (IF GOP prayers are heard it'll be BAD so they can try to get rid of social security.)

And the fed raising interest rates is hurting people borrowing money now - or who have a variable interest rate loan - and inflation on non-fuel related things is definitely having people feel it in their pocket books.

Also any legislation that tries to help - especially helping the non-rich- is filibustered. And then OPEC cuts fuel to UK, Europe, and the U.S.

It's just very suspicious to me that right before the election that it's getting so amped up. Like it's time to panic because a depression is here now and you just haven't noticed.

And when those stories get played up it makes it's way here the same day -or the next day. Seems like people are falling for okie-dokes. Some folks fall for them every single time.

I'm saying prepare, save money, kiss your boss's ass because you boss OWNS YOUR FUTURE (mine does) but also don't let Fox and the vast right wing conspiracy fake you into panic and voting against your own interest.

Or freak out, it's a free country.

Confession: I have stockpiled toilet paper in preparation for not having an income.


Note:
Google having a hiring freeze while making TENS OF BILLIONS in profits is a business decision to protect profits - not an indication that they can't afford to employ people.

And a hiring freeze when profits are UP and employment has been at a historic low means unemployment may slip back into the normal historical range.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

It's the only major thing that the repubicans can talk about leading into the fall and they are riding the wheels off of it.

When you compare how the US has handled inflation, GOP has no good case against Biden.

But the recession is something different. There are real world measurements of it and yes the GOP will juice the shit out of it as much as they can, but that doesn't mean it's not a real thing.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

Sorry, if I'm misunderstanding your point. But, inflation is a legit concern, tho. Retirees or people retiring within 1 year are seeing their 401ks and IRAs down big and thinking it could get worse. Stocks perform poorly when inflation is above 4%. Even worse at 7+%. A shitty couple of years with sticky inflation (recession or no recession) will have significant consequences.

Fed is going to jack rates again. They are actively trying for a recession...it is going to happen.

Its a bullshit move because there are plenty of factors are driving inflation that jacking rates doesn't address.

But its going to happen.

Anyone who says so is a plant? For real?


>Not saying OG poster is a shill or plant ,-I'm not-, it's
>just amazing how the talking points get "mainstreamed" when
>the right wing pushes them.

The Fed raising rates to trigger unemployment in a misguided effort to curb inflation is a right-wing talking point?

Oh wait, pointing out the vaccines do not work nearly as promised is also a right wing talking point. Forgot my audience.

>
>Remember the posts "Tulsi gabbard for speaker of the house"
>and "Girls in sports being raped (in terms of wins) by macho
>trans hulks!"

Huh? Okay...Your default super defensive of Biden mode makes your responses weirder by the day.

What does a comin recession have to do with any of this?

>
>Note: If a recession happens after years of pandemic it won't
>be unexpected.
>

Wait, so it isn't a right wing talking point when you say it??

>
>But:
>We're at record low unemployment - it wouldn't be surprising
>if it moved back near or above the historical baseline.
>
>Inflation is very high - and taxes are near record lows and
>profits near record highs. Wonder what's out of balance??

Oh I agree with you here. The answer is to absolutely raise taxes, implement windfall tax, and invest heavily in fixing the supply chain.

Is Biden signing a bill like that soon or...?

No? Not even pushing for it? Damn.


I know Biden can't fail but only be failed in your eyes, but damn...seems like the party in power should have been pushing for this stuff, no?

Instead of telling everyone to take their masks off, get their asses back to work, declaring the pandemic over, etc...damn they probably should have been more upfront and honest about the longer-term impacts of a pandemic that they could have blamed on Trump's failed response.

Should have made a case for all kinds of bold action.


Tough to make that case when your admin declares victory over COVID a few months in and wants to downplay the impact of COVID at every turn.


the Fed will be to blame for the recession, but your boy being so eager to declare the pandemic W was a huge mistake economically and politically.


>
>OPEC cutting our supply is going to increase gas prices and
>inflation?? Weird.

Yep. Is your stance that we can't talk about a coming recession because it isn't 100% Biden's fault?

What type of weirdo defensive shit are you on here?

>
>And talking points are also Europe is in recession - Russia
>doing just dandy. Also China in recession according to the
>right wing and the business/banking folks.

Is there a recession coming or nah? Are we allowed to talk about how we are prepping for it or nah? Or we can't unless we include all relevant context that makes you feel better about your boy?


>
>This is also being pushed by the emo feelings of investment
>bankers.
>

For sure. Its all fucked up.

So....recession coming, or nah?

>Fed is going to jack rates again. They are actively trying
>for a recession...it is going to happen.
>
>Its a bullshit move because there are plenty of factors are
>driving inflation that jacking rates doesn't address.

That's very true. But the Fed doesn't have the ability/authority to affect the other contributing factors of inflation. Sadly, the only thing the Fed can do is crush demand. Seems like the only tools they have is Federal Funds Rate and Quantitative Tightening. The Fed can't affect supply (consumer goods, oil, etc.)

The covid stimulus prevented recession/depression in 2020 and 2021. The huge mistake was the Fed keeping interest rates at 0 for so long and delaying rate hikes.

>Anyone who says so is a plant? For real?
No, I said that in my reply.

>>>Not saying OG poster is a shill or plant ,-I'm not-, it's
>>>just amazing how the talking points get "mainstreamed" when
>>>the right wing pushes them.

I said that when things get AMPED UP on right wing media it creeps onto these boards really quickly. It's effective.

>Fed is going to jack rates again. They are actively trying for a recession...it is going to happen.

SO the FED want a recession?? A recession?? Why not a depression? Or a complete collapse?

The feds don't want a recession. That's crazy talk. Feds actions might contribute to a recession - or they might not. There is risk. They have a limited set of tools - and it's not like there's any legislative action being taken that could help.



>So....recession coming, or nah?

I don't know - it's not looking good - there's going to be pain.

And we did go through a multi-year pandemic, supply chain issues, a war effecting oil, a cartel purposefully trying to fuck with oil supply, and nearly complete gridlock from congress.

We might very well get there, but right now - TODAY- it's being amped up for cynical political purposes. And then gets posted here quickly.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

I left my job in April because we had layoffs, and though I was spared I saw the writing on the wall.

Was interviewing a lot and had 2 solid offers on the table, ended up taking the less attractive offer because it was a more stable industry (health care vs. crypto) and I figured that was the way to go given the economic climate.

Start the job in May, was laid off in August. So much for choosing the "safe" route.

Luckily the crypto offer was still on the table and I basically used my severance as a paid vacation.

But I fully expect to get laid off again this economic cycle.

What's weird is I graduated during the Great Recession and that always had me on edge and fearing being laid off. In hindsight I was always 99.99% safe at jobs and left every job by my own choosing. Now that it's all but guaranteed shit will hit the fan, I'm calm af.

It is what it is. Thankfully I'm single with no debt and plenty of savings.

Any extra money I have had is gone. If things stay as they are then I'm good and expect to start building up more savings. I'd say I'm in a better position overall than 08 but job security isn't as a sure thing as I'd like. I think my company would weather it well but who knows.

I do have moves I can make if needed to weather it but it wouldn't be ideal.

I think I'm going to apply for some positions and see if there's anything that gives me more security. Might help at least get my name in there with some options to fall back into.

-

Side note, is Elizabeth Warren at all involved in what the admin is doing with the economy. This was the main reason I wanted her to win. If she is involved that would be surprising to me. Not saying if she was it would be better but I hope it would lol

There's a generation that lost their future in the first four years of the recession. Research the lost generation.

The upcoming recession is dumb. People were mad the government dumped free money into the economy because few people could work in the pandemic. Back to the topic.

No, I'm not ready for this bs. Preparing for it but you cannot truly be ready for a recession.

No empathy for white misery (c) BDot

"root for everybody black haters say that's crazy, wow..."

its all me, mine, my stash, etc. that's unsustainable.

whereas when we build community, aunthentically, with those around us, we don't have to worry about the machinations of a greedy capitalist system and its fake recessions. we have a buffer

simply having money won't protect us, ultimately. i've got my stash too. but I also know that i'm stil not ready because i'm not part of a community system that is collectively sustaining and supporting each other with healthy, compassionate interconnected systems.

i'm learning and working toward that.

d

"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

went home for our Juneteenth event at the community center I was raised in and seeing elders, friends and fam made me realize what made home so special.

My wife asked where the kids were and I just shrugged and said.. around here somewhere..

When you have the church, the community center, friends and the town all working together it makes life so much easier.

I was raised in the church and so was my wife but we don’t attend and sometimes I think we should find one just to help us become connected to the community. Regardless of how folks feel about religion, churches do A LOT when it comes to community.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

>When you have the church, the community center, friends and
>the town all working together it makes life so much easier.

this is exactly what i'm talking about.

>I was raised in the church and so was my wife but we don’t
>attend and sometimes I think we should find one just to help
>us become connected to the community. Regardless of how folks
>feel about religion, churches do A LOT when it comes to
>community.

yup yup. for better & worse LOL

d

"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

she admitted she wasn’t good at community building at the moment.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

>she admitted she wasn’t good at community building at the
>moment.

and i fear i won't get "good at it" in enough time for it to make a difference. unlearning individualistic thinking/living is so fucking hard. but i know that its worth trying

hell, even the simple act of coming back here..reading and writing and interacting, after all these years, is a form of community engagement. maybe its tiny and insignificant, but its a part of that journey for me

no matter how much of a terrible person Senora Galapagos is, I'd be one of the first people to help if he'd fallen on hard times and made a post.

d


"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

How you going to talk about folks being overly focused on themselves ("its all me, mine, my stash") when you aren't doing the very thing you are criticising us for not focusing on?



**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

this aint even close to condescending.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

I think it's takes alot to criticizing folks for focusing on themselves when folks express their concern about their jobs and the ability to support their families in the face of a major economic downturn.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

I had my plans and they turned out wildly more difficult than I'd imagined.

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

it takes time and patience and trust and vulnerability and getting to know people and letting them know you.

it's slow and painstaking.

i'm starting by slowly interacting more with and getting to know the people that live around me...my neighbors. people are naturally (and understandably) wary of each other, especially in city settings.

i'm also going to my local community farm and volunteering...meeting and learning from folks who come there to plant their own food and help tend to the farm...attending the harvest events, etc. none of that was ever an intentional part of my life before. especially since covid, as it made me keep to myself more.

like i said, its slow and difficult but worth it.

d


"i do more for both our communities than you'll ever know." - Heinz
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly

>
>i'm also going to my local community farm and
>volunteering...meeting and learning from folks who come there
>to plant their own food and help tend to the farm...attending
>the harvest events, etc. none of that was ever an intentional
>part of my life before. especially since covid, as it made me
>keep to myself more.
>
>

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

one thing we keep talking about is volunteering.

but we are slacking. I will say my wife at least works for Charlotte Ballet Outreach that connects her to a lot of POC families in the area.

but I need to do my part. I’ve been chilling too hard and need to find ways to give back and stay connected. I used to belong to our local community group but with 2 toddlers and work I didn’t have the time. Now I do, so I should..

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

The older communities we think about as models weren't necessarily intentionally built for the purpose we see out of them. Rather circumstances put folk together and and those circumstances created interdependencies. There are definitely positives that arose from those but I'm not sure you can recreate them intentionally. I've seen many examples of intentional community building and it always goes pretty bad because to some degree people will exploit the fact that the circumstances don't necessitate.

A lot of this is the hierarchical nature of individualist capitalism. You take five families and say pool together resources to keep the whole afloat. The family with one kid will secretly think they are paying for the family with two kids. The family with three kids will secretly think the families with less have no idea. Etc. Eventually what's bottled up comes out and things fall apart. You scale that up and the challenges grow exponentially. And everyone knows they could just go and perhaps be better off (at least nominally) so the commitment is actually contingent on things aligning with what they want over the communal needs.


█▆▇▅▇█▇▆▄▁▃
Big PEMFin H & z's
"I ain't no entertainer, and ain't trying to be one. I am 1 thing, a musician." � Miles

"When the music stops he falls back in the abyss."

and yes, there was always that hatin ass adult who was keeping tally.

but overall it still served its purpose.

I’ll never forget a white dude from HS coming to the Black VFW and wondering how long we had been down here having a good time. His eyes were just calculating the amount of people, drinks, food, etc..

and he lived like 3 streets over.

Shit cracked me up because we knew each other since we were like 7 years old. We didn’t keep it a secret but their parents made sure not to tell them about it because they didn’t want them down there. But we had poor white kids and kids who were friends of friends who knew all about it and participated.

The more I think about it, he knew.. he just didnt KNOW the depths of it.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

I work in a very recession-sensititive industry and it don't look good. Everyone is slashing budgets. Politically it might not the worst case because folks are saying the real real recession won't hit until next year.

Oh well, might be the excuse I need to quit my job and do some real impactful work.





**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

Just came back from a long weekend pto to people talking about bottom line math that is never encouraging.

█▆▇▅▇█▇▆▄▁▃
Big PEMFin H & z's
"I ain't no entertainer, and ain't trying to be one. I am 1 thing, a musician." � Miles

"When the music stops he falls back in the abyss."

and am now very much permanent in status after surviving all that mayhem. bought a home last year, have a liquid stack, and have have started buying some inflation protected bonds with it (can be done with via website and bank direct from US treasury, or via tax return). last day at historic 9.62% rate is 10/28.
and yes to the community building component of getting through times like this.

https://keilfp.com/blogpodcast/i-bond-rate-may-2022-october-2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/business/inflation-bonds-rates.html?smid=url-share

i think fears of a full on entrenched recession were prolly overblown (and most likely politically slanted) just based on the consistent robust job numbers.

wall street was coming around on tempering its recession expectations even before todays report on inflation (based on strong jobs, gdp and black friday sales reporting beforehand).

i gotta believe theres gonna be dramatically less doom and gloom now.

I think you’re right that a lot of this was just political slant by the GQP and Fox News.

Roll back the Ukraine Invasion with a "whoops my bad", and hopefully inflation can roll back some.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

There are those that say good news (strong job market) is bad news (Powell is looking for weaker job market and weaker housing market per Jackson Hole speech). Wage growth is outpacing 2% inflation target as well.

2 notable things:

The 3-month/10-year inversion has preceded the last 5 recessions since 1982. The 6th inversion right now is the biggest since December 2000:
https://twitter.com/RA_Insights/status/1602698151936217093?t=8x6adUBNm6Qy89EZKsPOPw&s=19

Inflation does not go down fast, usually-
https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1585607005707931648?t=k5fKamukhuxXpeteZ_qqVw&s=19

"It's different this time." Maybe. Maybe not.

I'd rather live with 2% - 4% inflation than go through a recession. I'm rooting for a soft landing. But after a pause and lower hikes, if Powell doesn't like what he sees, he knows that for the last 100 years, a recession will highly likely bring inflation down to 2% from peak.

so predictable.

they really cant find anything else to “scare” us with?

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Like if the goal is to stop inflation, don't those numbers need to be higher (more unemployed)?



**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

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TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Specifically in the labor market, his biggest concern is nominal wage growth outpacing 2% inflation over time. Job openings have grown 270,000+ average per month (November was 263,000) for the last 3 months and unemployment remains near historic lows. As he's been saying for months, the labor demand substantially exceeds labor supply. To him, higher unemployment means better labor supply and demand balance which would slow wage growth.

Powell also knows the correlation of a certain level of unemployment with bringing down inflation. At the same time, he said inflation might be able to come down with a modest increase in unemployment. There will be pain that can't be avoided. That's something he has said publicly multiple times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/podcasts/the-daily/tech-layoffs-job-market-us-economy.html


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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

Things cost more bc of inflation, workers demand more income because the things they want and need cost more, the things those workers cost more (partially) bc they’re being paid more… and the cycle continues

The Fed only has blunt instruments to impact inflation. By raising rates, they’re effectively trying to slow the economy and expecting companies to start laying people off and giving their existing employees smaller raises bc the company is selling fewer things and their debt costs more.

So far, the economy has been resilient against the rate hikes. So the good job numbers effectively means inflation will stay relatively high and the Fed is going to keep raising rates.

<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->
<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->

Companies across the board are posting record profits, and several of them have been caught price gouging and practicing 'shrinkflation'

Don't let 'them' convince you that paying us fair wages will innevitably result in inflation. Economically, that just doesn't track.

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Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

supply chain still trying to settle. stimulus money that was sent to everyone instead of just people who needed it, so alot of it never got spent. ukraine probably falls in the mix somewhere.

i'm just repeating shit i heard from smarter people, but still.

>Companies across the board are posting record profits, and
>several of them have been caught price gouging and practicing
>'shrinkflation'
>
>Don't let 'them' convince you that paying us fair wages will
>innevitably result in inflation. Economically, that just
>doesn't track.

>supply chain still trying to settle. stimulus money that was
>sent to everyone instead of just people who needed it, so alot
>of it never got spent. ukraine probably falls in the mix
>somewhere.
>
>i'm just repeating shit i heard from smarter people, but
>still.
>

Some of the realest shit I ever saw on OKP

Me too, fam. Me too.

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

"just repeating shit i heard from smarter people, but still."


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

********************************

Get Out The Room!
http://getouttheroom.podomatic.com
@fakewilliamkatt

"You probably wouldn't worry about what people think of you if you could know how seldom they do!" - Olin Miller

>Companies across the board are posting record profits, and
>several of them have been caught price gouging and practicing
>'shrinkflation'

Q3 2022 year over year earnings growth was the lowest since 2020 Q3 for the s&p 500.

Q1 2022 y-o-y earnings growth was the lowest since Q4 2020.

5 sectors had decreased net profit margin from Q2 2022 to Q3 2022.

Q4 earnings decline is expected.

The energy sector is balling, tho.

>Don't let 'them' convince you that paying us fair wages will
>innevitably result in inflation. Economically, that just
>doesn't track.

The Fed believes that inflation can't come down to their target of 2% inflation if wage growth continue at its pace of 5-6% growth. Whether or not the Fed are focusing on the wrong thing is moot. Wage growth is their focus and they want it to slow down.

If prices are elevated and people can afford to pay these higher prices, how else can prices come down? The Fed can't do much. They only got QT and the fed funds rate. That's their rationale.

I mean f ck Powell and the Fed. They were reckless with QE and being so late to start rate hiking. But Powell has been clear on what they look at, he said there will be pain, and he said about changing their 2% target -
"We're not going to consider that under any circumstances."

anyone know how this is going?

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-economy-expected-grown-slowed-dispelling-recession-fears/story?id=101664985



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"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

The economy just grew by 2.4% last quarter, beating estimated expectations. Inflation is slowing and unemployment is low.

Interest rates are high unfortunately, but even with that the economy is doing well. No proof of a recession by any reasonable measure imo.

__________________________________________

“Maybe there are two types of people in the world: those who favor humans over ideology, and those who favor ideology over humans. I prefer humans to ideology, but right now the ideologues are winning, and the

sounds bad!

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

Inflation is down but not enough for the Fed to completely stop raising rates. So now is the truly dangerous period where the Fed could over shoot on rates.

They’d like a ”soft landing” but, if that’s not possible, they’d rather cause a recession than let inflation go wild again.

<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->
<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

Nobody wants to stay and clean up.
-DeNiro in Ronin

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

Milling station.