"This four-minute audio-visual piece is based on independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets. It uses extensive data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict from tactical, to strategic to city-targeting phases. "
basically details how/why a russian power struggle could force putin to withdraw.
" If the scenario I describe here unfolds, we don't have to worry about the kinds of things we tend to worry about, like how Putin is feeling about the war, and whether Russians will be upset about losing. During an internal struggle for power in Russia, Putin and other Russians will have other things on their minds, and the war will give way to those more pressing concerns. Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you.
Of course, all of this remains very hard to predict, especially at any level of detail. Other outcomes are entirely possible. But the line of development I discuss here is not only far better, but also far more likely, than the doomsday scenarios we fear. It is thus worth considering, and worth preparing for."
stravinskian Member since Feb 24th 2003 12698 posts
Fri Oct-07-22 05:07 PM
6. "The game theory is terrifying. " In response to Reply # 1
Once a single nuclear weapon is used, at least if it's from Russia or the US, it's almost impossible for it NOT to lead to world annihilation. Basically because both sides know that if they hesitate the other side has plenty of time, and every motivation, to wipe out their entire stockpile. So even if it's just a "small, tactical" nuclear weapon (which in and of itself might have limited consequences especially if it's some kind of warning shot not sent to a populated area), the only "rational" response is to fire all your nuclear weapons at every known element of the opposing arsenal. And knowing that, the other side knows that they need to fire off their whole arsenal before it gets destroyed.
If things go sideways the entire idea of life on earth gets fundamentally changed within about a 30 minute timespan. Most of us wouldn't even know it's happening until after it's done. After about a month everyone will agree that the lucky ones were the ones who were instantly vaporized.
4. "my concept of nuclear war is so outdated." In response to Reply # 0
like i thought a missile goes up and you got you a few hours to hit the highway and leave the target zone (assuming traffic isnt at a stand still) and so on.
nigga them shits hit in like 30 minutes land to land and even faster by sub.
most people wouldnt even know them shits had already hit before they got vaporized.
i dont even know if we have some nuclear alert system that is capable of identifying the projectile path and notifying everyone in that timespan.
shit it prolly takes at least 15 mins alone to relay info through the command and get confirmation and a decision.
5. "Last I’d seen, 10 minutes is the window." In response to Reply # 4
And I’m in Omaha, home of STRATCOM and one of those first big dots in the US in that simulation, so this isn’t exactly uncommon conversation right now.
On the real, I kinda feel like I’d just try to get as close to the actual blast as possible. I’m not trying to play Fallout in real life.
11. "i been writing for about 20 years. ice storms and mundane shit like that" In response to Reply # 4
shut down entire major metro traffic. multi-hour backups. ain't nobody escaping a nuclear war on a highway. if you ain't already in a low population center, it's a wrap.
========================================= I'm an advocate for working smarter, not harder. If you just focus on working hard you end up making someone else rich and not having much to show for it. (c) mad
18. "telling people a nuke will be in NYC in two hours..." In response to Reply # 4
probably just straight up doesn't work. Might not even save lives. You simply can't evac manhattan or even make a real dent in that amount of time, assuming everyone is trying to leave at once.
If we _did_ have that long I'm guessing we'd spend probably that entire time trying to shoot it down.
7. "I watched the made for TV movie “Threads” last week that" In response to Reply # 0
traces the effects of a nuclear holocaust on the working class city of Sheffield, England and the eventual long-term effects of nuclear war on civilization.
No, I am not ready.
♥ Inescapably Me ♥
"Love is never any better than the lover" Toni Morrison (The Bluest Eye)
legsdiamond Member since May 05th 2011 79601 posts
Fri Oct-07-22 07:25 PM
8. "yup.. aint shit I can do about it. I’m ready" In response to Reply # 0
**************** TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*
12. "Nobody is ready for nuclear war." In response to Reply # 0
And I expect (hope) that this realization will keep the powers that be from actually going there.
I doubt that Putin is going to press the big red button first, although I wouldn't put it past him and his army to use small scale tactical nuclear weapons in an effort to further terrorize Ukraine.
And even in that case I don't expect other nuclear powers to escalate along the strategic nuclear route, simply because there is nothing to win by doing so. I think it's more likely that conventional support would be ramped up in an effort to hasten the defeat of the RF and make Putin's position as head of state even more untenable.
___________________ "So this is what everybody's always talking about! Diablo! If only I'd known. The beauty! The beauty!"
14. "I honestly think his generals would kill him before it got this stage" In response to Reply # 12
I refuse (maybe naively) to believe that his closest advisors and confidants even want this Ukraine war to happen and theyre just waiting for him to die for some semblance of normalcy (or whatever they had before all this popped off)
>I doubt that Putin is going to press the big red button first, >although I wouldn't put it past him and his army to use small >scale tactical nuclear weapons in an effort to further >terrorize Ukraine.
------------------- I wanna go to where the martyrs went the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...
19. "It makes some sense to make the threat. Even Trump did a few times." In response to Reply # 12
But for reasons outlined above, actually deploying one is, in the _best_ case, total isolation from the rest of the world powers, and total devastation for the Russian people. That's if no nation retaliates with military strikes against Russian targets.
I'm curious if we even think Putin is capable of giving the order. e.g. would his generals follow it, knowing what it would lead to?
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