There was an article this summer about some house members trying to condition aid to Brazil on the military promising to *not* intervene in the election. Apparently, these Reps we're having a difficult time getting folks to agree to that seemingly benign condition and it was hard not to read it and think "that seems bad."

I'll try to find it, but for now: Brazilian Election Post!

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Bolsonaro has made it clear to his supporters the only way he leaves office is if he's arrested or killed...he's been undermining the validity of the elections for months...and planted those same seeds of distrust in the last election as an insurance policy in case he didn't win.

Would be great if Lula can get more than 50% of the vote and win the election today, but I'm not sure if that would embolden Bozo's supporters to think the election was a fraud.

If it goes to a run-off later in the month, I get the feeling that Lula would beat Bolsonaro by a much wider margin...but could also be a very chaotic and tense month in the country.

... then saw results rolling in shortly after and thought "Uh oh."

So "chaotic and tense" it is. Fingers crossed, particularly if you are there or have any people there. I don't know you, but this sounds more on-the-ground than everybody else's posts in here.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Thank you. I'm not in Brasil, but was married to a Brazilian and lived there for a while and have many Brazilian friends, so I've followed the politics there for quite some time.

From what I've gathered, the results were a lot worse than many people were hoping...even though Lula had a strong lead, Bolsonaro did a lot better than many of the polls predicted and people in his party won a number of senate and cabinet positions....so even if Bozo leaves office, he's gonna be leaving a lot of his venomous politics around.

As popular as Lula was as president, there is a lot of people who dislike him and PT (workers party)...classism is a big issue in Brazil and while Lula helped lift a lot of the country out of poverty with Bolsa Famila and other social programs, a lot of the elite and middle class in Brazil were resentful of this...same with the US Govt....the silent coup of Dilma and imprisonment of Lula were 100% politically motivated. Lula's party is not exempt from corruption, but the ones leading the charge against PT were far more corrupt.

I think many anti-Lula people have seen that Bolsonaro is being far dangerous, but it's scary how normalized and accepted Bozo's violent, anti-indigenous, anti-woman, anti-gay rhetoric has become for many Brazilians.

I have a bad feeling that this is going to not only be a tense time for the country, but also a violent one.

Lula will win the election, but I am fearful of all that will be lost in the process.

https://youtu.be/uySgklnlX3Y

____________
Twitter & IG: @rulerofmyself
SC: rulerofmyself17

Yes! She's on the drugs. (c) BoHagon

------------------
One Hundred.

Local reports are that Lula will win decisively, which would put the exclamation point on a seismic shift of South American nations electing more progressive governments after multi-decade right-wing rule.

But Bolsonaro (aptly nicknamed the Trump of the Tropics) is likely not to concede or recognize the integrity of the election - and he has a very loud minority of die-hard supporters (sound like someone else we know?)

Jair's paramilitary history also raises concern in terms of how Bolsonaro's loss will be perceived/received - particularly in the context of Lula taking over power after being imprisoned on corruption charges in 2018 just when he was preparing to challenge Bolsonaro. His conviction was subsequently reversed as it was revealed that his conviction resulted from judicial/prosecutorial corruption.

Basically, cats ain't poised to play by the rules over there.

It's a very fragile time for Brazil, once hailed as a BRIC ascendant economy - but one that has stalled for over a decade (save for its thriving agricultural sector) and is desperate for stability and competence after the Brazilian people have seen their standard of living drop precipitously for the better part of the 2000s.

What will be crucial to watch IMO is how Lula handles victory against a bitter rival, one that he understandably would have a lot of angst towards. Will he govern with raw grievances to get revenge on his political opponents? Or will he ride the momentum to improve the lives of the people?

I'm hopeful there can be a LatAm coalition to protect the Amazon and usher in a new era of environmental justice. South America is uniquely situated right now (both geographically and politically) to lead the charge on climate/environment - and I think a regional consensus can be achieved if Lula wins on a number of issues.

But all signs seem to be that we're in for a wild ride while this all gets sorted out.


-->

Not even rheotrical.

Remember dude wrote the book the End of History. Like the idea was once we reached liberal democracies, we won't fall back to dictatorships, illiberal governments, etc.

Now days I just don't see any democracies surviving long term.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

https://twitter.com/FukuyamaFrancis/status/1576814074750726144

and people are throwing The End of History in his face in true Twitter fashion.

___________________
"So this is what everybody's always talking about! Diablo! If only I'd known. The beauty! The beauty!"

n/m

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

He was spouting that bS way back then

One hell of a stage lol

Hopefully, it'll be straightforward with the run-off.

--

"You can't beat white people. You can only knock them out."

Not really he just compared Lula to Ortega in Nicaragua cracking down on the Catholic church

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/bolsonaro-nicaragua-lula-brazil-election

won seats in the senate and house (e.g. see swipe below).

So it looks like, even in a best-case scenario that Bolsonaro formally loses and doesn't violently challenge the results, Lula would be up against a profoundly hostile congress anyway (that will even include the former judge and now senator-elect, Sergio Moro, who jailed him) since Bolsonaro's party holds the highest percentage of seats in both chambers (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/right-wing-wins-brazils-congress-show-staying-power-bolsonarismo-2022-10-03/).

But I also don't really follow Brazilian politics, so if the coalitions would shake out in Lula's favour or something I would def welcome the insight/correction.


https://brazilian.report/liveblog/2022/10/02/senate-former-ministers/

In the Senate, former Bolsonaro ministers come back with a vengeance

By Cedê Silva
Oct 02, 2022 22:04 2 min read

Four of Jair Bolsonaro’s former cabinet ministers will get a new job in the Senate, official poll results showed this Sunday.

Damares Alves, Marcos Pontes, Sergio Moro, and Tereza Cristina were elected for eight-year terms in the Senate, which holds three seats for each state.

Mr. Moro is the most famous of the bunch. The former judge, who was the biggest star of the Car Wash investigation, served as Justice Minister under Bolsonaro for slightly more than a year. He resigned in April 2020 after accusing the president of political interference in Federal Police investigations.

He also said the president asked for privileged information on inquiries under the auspices of the Supreme Court, responsible for conducting cases on high-level politicians such as cabinet ministers, lawmakers and the president himself.

Damares Alves served as Family and Human Rights minister, a platform she mostly used to push far-right causes. She personally worked to delay Covid vaccination programs for children.

Tereza Cristina and Marcos Pontes served as Agriculture and Science and Technology ministers, respectively.

In addition to four former cabinet ministers, President Bolsonaro also got the news this Sunday that his current vice president, Hamilton Mourão, was elected as senator for the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Vice President and now senator-elect Mr. Mourão was mostly kept away from power during the Bolsonaro administration, and was assigned the role of presiding over the Amazon Council and mostly acting as spokesman for Brazil’s environmental policy, with a more public role than that of the Environment Minister himself.

Senator Davi Alcolumbre from Amapá, responsible for implementing the “secret budget” in the upper house, was re-elected for a second term, in another piece of good news for President Bolsonaro.

Results in the House of Representatives will become more evident in the next few days. One of Bolsonaro’s former Health Ministers, retired General Eduardo Pazuello, is sure to get a seat to represent the state of Rio de Janeiro in Congress.

One of Mr. Pazuello’s first actions as minister, in June 2020, was to hide the total number of Covid deaths on an official government online panel, which led Brazilian press outlets to create their own systems to count the daily numbers of infections and deaths. He was also slow to purchase enough vaccines to protect Brazilian adults.

when i was in rio i asked a local her thoughts on lula. she was like "i was raised in a favela. lula was elected, so i got to study abroad, and my life is changed. no lula - that wouldn't have happened."

to think the work and ongoing progress of raising something like 20 million people from poverty his first go around could be shut down by a fascist with experience in the 1970s brazilian dictatorship period is tragic and ridiculous. covid ravaged brazil in part due that psychopath's administration and yet he still is somehow keeping it close. the run-off will hopefully happen without bloodshed.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1586856597560729602

margin closer than polls predicted tho.

we will see what bolsonaro does now and if there is a peaceful transition of power.

bolsonaro is the 1st president to lose re-election since brazil became a democracy (again) in 1985.

heres what south america looks like right now (red is left)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgWvAqDXoAAD0jq?format=jpg&name=medium

Has never lead to good outcomes in Latin America

Good day for LatAm.
-->

That said, pro-Bolsonaro allies in the Congress (as well as the newly elected pro-Bolsonaro mayor of Sao Paulo) have recognized the results, but Bolsonaro and his sons remain silent.

Meanwhile, MAGA "Stop The Steal" lunatic Ali Alexander is calling for a coup in Brazil:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1586884781844926465?s=20&t=7pS4QupIAk9Q7ZdGXC4OSA



-->

Bolsonaro took days to make a statement, and once he spoke on the loss, he didn't expressly concede to Lula. He did however acknowledge the transition of power.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, there were trucker protests throughout the country blocking vital highways, and they even blocked access to GRU airport in Sao Paulo causing dozens of flight cancellations. It took an order from the Supreme Court to finally remove the truckers (with a threat of ~$18k fine per day) - and the federal highway official running the show was pro-Bolsonaro and clearly sabotaging efforts to remove the truckers.

Lula's victory breathes new life into South America's growing democratic progressive consensus, and there should be a landshift in environmental policy - en masse - to solve the Amazon's urgent needs. But it won't be easy, Bolsonarismo still looms large with a strong presence in Brazil's Congress. Lula will be met with opposition at every turn.

-->

This is not great.

Relatedly, we need somebody to go General Sherman on Florida - which has really turned a corner lately as a lively hub for Latin American fascist losers.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolsonaro-supporters-invade-congress-presidential-palace-brasilia-2023-01-08/

4 minute readJanuary 8, 20236:28 PM ESTLast Updated 7 min ago
Bolsonaro supporters invade Brazil presidential palace, Congress, Supreme Court
By Adriano Machado

BRASILIA, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Supporters of Brazil's far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro on Sunday invaded the country's Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court, in a grim echo of the U.S. Capitol invasion two years ago by fans of former President Donald Trump.

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the most fraught election in a generation last year, announced a federal security intervention in Brasilia lasting until Jan. 31 after capital security forces initially were overwhelmed by the invaders.

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In a press conference, he blamed Bolsonaro and complained about a lack of security in the capital, saying authorities had allowed "fascists" and "fanatics" to wreak havoc.

"These vandals, who we could call fanatical Nazis, fanatical Stalinists ... fanatical fascists, did what has never been done in the history of this country," said Lula, who was on an official trip to Sao Paulo state. "All these people who did this will be found and they will be punished."

The sight of thousands of yellow-and-green clad protesters running riot in the capital capped months of tension following the Oct. 30 vote. Bolsonaro, an acolyte of Trump's who has yet to concede defeat, peddled the false claim that Brazil's electronic voting system was prone to fraud, spawning a violent movement of election deniers.

There was no immediate word from Bolsonaro, who has barely spoken in public since losing the election. He flew to Florida 48 hours before the end of his mandate and was absent from Lula's inauguration.

"This genocidist ... is encouraging this via social media from Miami," Lula said, referring to Bolsonaro. "Everybody knows there are various speeches of the ex-president encouraging this."

The violence in Brasilia could amplify the legal risks Bolsonaro faces. It also presents a headache for U.S authorities as they debate how to handle his stay in Florida.

The Bolsonaro family lawyer, Frederick Wassef, did not respond to a request for comment.

Around 6.30 p.m. local time, some three hours after the initial reports of the invasion, security forces managed to retake the three buildings, GloboNews reported. TV images showed dozens of rioters being led away in handcuffs.

The invasions were condemned by leaders around the world.

U.S. President Joe Biden, whose own presidency was marked by a similar event, said the situation was "outrageous." His Secretary of State Antony Blinken offered Washington's full support to Lula and Brazil's institutions.

"Using violence to attack democratic institutions is always unacceptable," Blinken wrote on Twitter. "We join Lula in urging an immediate end to these actions."

The invasion poses an immediate problem for Lula, who was only inaugurated on Jan. 1 and has pledged to unite a nation torn apart by Bolsonaro's nationalist populism. Television images showed protesters breaking into the Supreme Court and Congress, chanting slogans and smashing furniture. Local media estimated about 3,000 people were involved.

The Supreme Court, whose crusading Justice Alexandre de Moraes has been a thorn in the side of Bolsonaro and his supporters, was ransacked by the occupiers, according to social media images that showed protesters clubbing security cameras and shattering the windows of the modernist building.

Video widely shared on social media showed a policeman knocked off his horse by demonstrators armed with sticks.

Brasilia Governor Ibaneis Rocha wrote on Twitter that he had fired his top security official, Anderson Torres, previously Bolsonaro's justice minister. The solicitor general's office said it had filed a request for Torres' arrest.

Torres told website UOL that he was with his family on holiday in the United States, and had not met with Bolsonaro. UOL said he was in Orlando, where Bolsonaro is currently based.

On Saturday, with rumors of a confrontation brewing in Brasilia, Justice Minister Flávio Dino authorized the deployment of the National Public Security Force. On Sunday, he wrote on Twitter, "this absurd attempt to impose the will by force will not prevail."

In Washington in 2021, Trump supporters attacked police, broke through barricades and stormed the Capitol in a failed effort to prevent congressional certification of Joe Biden's 2020 election victory.

Trump, who has announced a third bid for the presidency, in 2024, had pressured his vice president, Mike Pence, not to certify the vote, and he continues to claim falsely that the 2020 election was stolen from him through widespread fraud.

In Brasilia there have been at least three accounts of protesters assaulting journalists, according to the Brasilia journalists' union, which cited unconfirmed reports.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Ugly as shit but real "second time as farce" stuff.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-hospitalized-us-with-abdominal-pain-report-2023-01-09/?utm_source=reddit.com

Yall remember when he was so backed up with shit that it was giving him acid reflux lol

I'm just kinda pissed Jose Aldo is the one giving him refuge cause he's one of my favorite fighters, but I am highly entertained by his wife gaming the pandemic payments for impoverished brazilians and blaming "the snooping left" for it being discovered.

Saves me a lot of disappointment, lol.

___________________
"So this is what everybody's always talking about! Diablo! If only I'd known. The beauty! The beauty!"

*******************************************************
i will not let finite disappointment undermine infinite hope
- Cory Booker

Football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes, and at the end the Germans always win
- Gary Lineker

In a generation of swine, the one-eyed pig is king.
-Hunter S. Thompson

like..i've never been to brazil (hopefully later this year), but i can sense it from that description

New Orleans is my favorite city in the country. i remember first time i went to NOLA (mardi gras 1998), people asked me afterwards how the city was and i said "imagine Key West*, but stretched out and with skyscrapers"

* - KW has changed a lot since then

i mean that in all the best and all the worst ways

In a generation of swine, the one-eyed pig is king.
-Hunter S. Thompson

Like in the US, I think there was real risk that people would be get hurt. But I thought there was a low risk that they would actually overthrow the government. Is it similar there in Brazil?


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

Police played a big part in assisting the mob on the US Capital and in Brasilia.....

the BIG difference:

Lula is calling out the corruption in the police and the corporate and industrial interests that helped assist them.

The US just decided to give billions more to Police and expand their surveillance.