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Aiming for times is so weird because I have lost my frame of reference. I ran in high school and college (not well - just an occasionally useful relay leg for a mediocre D3 team) but basically started a pattern of dealing with one nagging injury after another since around 2005.
Turned it around during the pandemic because I had nothing to do but follow some really careful rules I made for myself:
-minimize running on roads and sidewalks, down to "never" if possible
-no more training in racing flats or minimal shoes
-core maintenance is a necessity, not a luxury
-no reps at anything faster than *current* 800m pace (no sprinting)
-hard stop on any workout the moment my form starts to break down
Combining these rules with a different approach to training than I had in my 20's, when even my long/easy/recovery days were safely under 7:00/per has really helped. Now, I follow the Critical Velocity model (I hate that name, but I want to give due credit) of longer reps at a pace that's closer to a cruise than a push with short race. The pace itself is pretty carefully calculated when done well, but is basically "whatever you can hold for 30 minutes" or "your 5K pace but fifteen seconds per mile slower". The idea is that it recruits type IIa muscle fibers into distance running. I'm not great with the science, but I'm a high school track coach and I started using this training on my kids a couple years ago in order to start increasing their in-season mileage without injuring them. When I saw how effective it was, I started trying it on myself.
It's kept me healthy for a year now, which is great. But I don't have any idea what I'm still capable of because the last two rules really put the breaks on any aggressive training. And that's part of the problem of getting old, isn't it? I still feel like the same "me" that I was when I was twenty, and I never had an athletic decline phase because I was injured constantly.
I think I can run under 20:00 for a 5K again. That's 6:20-ish per mile, and I've gotten down to low 22's without any speed work. But faster than that, the margins are hard to imagine. A 5:30-:40 mile seems pretty realistic, but when I go that pace for any length of a track rep, I really feel like I'm pushing. Lots of people can cruise for a 5K at a pace that's within a minute of their mile PR, but I wasn't one of them even when I was "good" so I doubt that dynamic has changed much.
>One thing I haven't tried is track work. I haven't run on a
>track since like 1994 probably... All my times are based on
>road running of varying elevations and weather conditions.
That makes a ton of sense, since that's where the races are. I'm pretty nervous about finally getting back into a race and finding out that I'm not prepared for the less-controlled conditions of road races. But for now, a track really helps with soft landings and known distances so I can work on my pacing.
Plus, there's a track near my apartment (Duke Ellington Track) that isn't that crowded at times that fit my schedule. ______________________________
"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"
--Walleye's Dad
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