legsdiamond Member since May 05th 2011 79594 posts
Mon Mar-22-21 09:22 AM
"can someone break down the conflict in Ethiopia? "
I remember back in college Ethiopian and Eritreans stopped talking when the car nflict started.
Just read about some horrible ethnic cleansing going on.
**************** TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*
legsdiamond Member since May 05th 2011 79594 posts
Mon Mar-22-21 01:09 PM
4. "Nah, I meant by African OKP’s on here who know the real" In response to Reply # 1
thanks tho
**************** TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*
2. "Ethnofederalism failing (again). Man, Ethiopia might have the most " In response to Reply # 0
complex politics in Africa, for real.
I'm a fairly dedicated politics junkie willing to put in work to read/understand the history and dynamics of a region of interest (eg. I follow politics in 3 countries of interest currently, incl 1 on the continent), but even my eyes glaze over with all of Ethiopia's administrative areas, political parties, coalitions, nuances etc.
And then there's also longstanding tensions of an anti-colonial nature between some groups (eg Oromo v. Amhara people) depending who you read/talk to, and some deeply embedded colorism-basically-functioning-as-racism affecting southern groups and refugees as well.
I'm reading the links shared in here myself, but I think it would be most helpful to ask any folks you may know with ties to the region too. They can prob shed light on nuances that MSM can't quite detect/report on (although there might be bias depending on their ethnicity and family's class-level both abroad and back home, etc).
All I know tho is I've kinda (naively) been rooting for ethnofederalism, as a possible solution for all these African countries plagued by crippling tribalism and dysfunctional federations anyway. But I don't think you could draw up a more democratic approach than what they tried in Ethiopia... and *still* this inevitable march towards ethnic cleansing/humanitarian crisis, just like in Yugoslavia etc.
It's too bad, honestly. My heart goes out to all those affected.
3. "What iyo makes Ethiopian politics so extraordinary complex?" In response to Reply # 2 Mon Mar-22-21 11:54 AM by Bambino Grande
Ofc Ethiopia’s history is CRAZY. Its a very intimidating subject considering how deep, troubled and complex their history is
I guess what I’m asking is: Is there (to you) a *simple* way to sum up the root cause(s) for their infinite challenges, aside from what you posted above? My ex was from Addis and she explained some but it always felt like their history and difficulties were too vast and numerous for her as well
7. "Hmm, that's a really good question. I'm really not sure." In response to Reply # 3
And no, I don't think there's a simple way to describe the root cause of their issues. I don't know if I'd even lay everything entirely on the Ethiopian people and their history tbh. Bc it's my (limited) understanding that ethnofederalism is just a super complex model to execute well/peacefully/sustainably to begin with. Ethiopia seemed to be a successful proof-of-concept that might go the distance, but post-Zenawi I guess not.
Where I'm leaning now is maybe ethnofederalism's fusion of political party/power, territory, and ethnicity simply ends up being an insanely double-edged sword.
Bc on the one hand, it can maximize different communities' political representation and autonomy. But on the other hand, territorializing ethnicity - even by respecting traditional homeland borders or compromising on important cities/former capitals - kind of creates "sitting duck" scenarios too, like we're seeing in Tigray region.
Additionally, ethnofederalism doesn't seem to do a good job of managing transnational ethnic alliances and frictions, like with Eritrea's posture in this conflict. Eritrea is a majority Tigrayan nation and fought for independence from a federated Ethiopia, but is siding with the very federated Ethiopia they seperated from to help take out their fellow Tigray??? Make it make sense.
So I guess it's the web of interconnections and contradictions that confuses me, more than anything lol. Ethiopia's "web" just seems more dense than a lot of other countries. I should try harder tho.
>Ofc Ethiopia’s history is CRAZY. Its a very intimidating >subject considering how deep, troubled and complex their >history is > >I guess what I’m asking is: Is there (to you) a *simple* way >to sum up the root cause(s) for their infinite challenges, >aside from what you posted above? My ex was from Addis and she >explained some but it always felt like their history and >difficulties were too vast and numerous for her as well
legsdiamond Member since May 05th 2011 79594 posts
Mon Mar-22-21 01:12 PM
5. "I have a few Ethiopian friends from college" In response to Reply # 2
that I still stay in contact with but its always been a touchy subject and like you said, its hard to get takes that aren’t personal.
**************** TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*
6. "Internal conflict and a simmering border conflict." In response to Reply # 0
As mentioned you will get totally different perspectives depending on who you ask. This is my personal understanding and should be taken with a grain of salt. Abiy Ahmed( a former intelligence officer) was picked to handle a transitional government after years of regional and ethnic (for lack of a better word) tensions. The ruling party at the time was Tigray dominated and was facing increasing pressure to share power. Abiy Ahmed is half Amhara and half Oromo so this probably factored into his being chosen. As soon as he took the reigns of power so to speak he started facing serious pushback. Tigray who felt they were being blamed for a multitude of problems, Oromo who have felt historically marginalized and were seeking greater representation and territorial claims as well as Amhara who as the majority also felt marginalized and also had historical territorial disputes. The Tigray ( who for most of Ethiopia’s recent history have been over represented in government and army) felt that his call to delay elections (he was supposed to be a gap stop until elections) was a power grab.Who attacked first is disputed but Tigray elements and the army clashed. Abiy clamped down very hard. This is where it gets very touchy. Amhara militias were used to suppress the rebellion and turned out into a serious conflict ( this is where the territorial claims come in, there were many disputed areas that the Amhara believed were historically theirs and they wanted them back). Sudan borders the region of Tigray and Ethiopia made a deal with the Sudanese government that they would remain neutral and not arm the Tigray. To add fuel to the fire there are credible claims that Eritrean soldiers were conscripted to quell the ‘insurrection’ and committed atrocities ( Eritrea has a historic grudge with Tigray as the war between the two countries was mostly Tigray led as well as thousands of Eritrean refugees heading to Tigray as a safe haven, which the Eritrean government sees as a huge embarrassment). AND Sudan has a historical border dispute with Ethiopia with very fertile land being farmed by Ethiopian farmers by mutual consent until a solution was found. Making good on the chaos the Sudanese army started taking back this land. The skirmishes are increasing in length and intensity and could very well turn into a war. This is very condensed and there so many nuances and geopolitical issues that play into the conflict. If I made any factual errors I’d welcome the correction.
9. "This was an elite explanation. Thank you for fleshing out the Eritrea" In response to Reply # 6 Mon Mar-22-21 05:33 PM by kfine
beef as well.
I was thinking maybe Afwerki and Abiy forged some kind of authoritarian bromance given their diplomatic successes in the region, but the resentment-embarassment aspect makes perfect sense in terms of the mentalities that must be at play.
Still crazy tho. Like if the government of Mexico had teamed up with 45 to commit atrocities against Mexican immigrants on US soil. It'd be like huh?
Sending prayers over there and hope it doesn't spiral out of control.
Only an African leader would start a war after being awarded Nobel Peace Prize! Smh
**************** TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*
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