2. "bruh...next wednesday" In response to Reply # 0
it would be one thing if it meant the state would stay out of the way but i just know they will find a way to force businesses to allow people to not use masks. they wont allow businesses and cities in texas to set their own rules that follow the cdc guidelines.
to answer your question, i would guess summer next year is the earliest. with governors like abbot in charge though it may extend far past that.
6. "Agreed. My question is what about the large percentage" In response to Reply # 5
of people who just won't get vaccinated. If all adults are ABLE to get vaccinated by May, what if 40-50% of them don't want to. The current estimated herd immunity percentage is that 80-95% of people need to be vaccinated - if there's a wide gap of people still vulnerable (including all the children who can't get vaccinated) how long does that extend the "return to normalcy"?
>*If* Biden can deliver for all adults by end of May (as he >claims) then life could be much better before end of Summer.
9. "RE: Agreed. My question is what about the large percentage" In response to Reply # 6
>of people who just won't get vaccinated. If all adults are >ABLE to get vaccinated by May, what if 40-50% of them don't >want to. The current estimated herd immunity percentage is >that 80-95% of people need to be vaccinated - if there's a >wide gap of people still vulnerable (including all the >children who can't get vaccinated) how long does that extend >the "return to normalcy"? > > >>*If* Biden can deliver for all adults by end of May (as he >>claims) then life could be much better before end of Summer. >
I am not optimistic on the matter. Some people are going to stick to their guns. And some of those folks have shitty guns: no vaccine, no masks, no restrictions or consideration on what events and gatherings they’ll attend, etcetera. If we really are going into the summer with no masks and at most half of adults vaccinated, I would think that things will not go well, infection numbers won’t flatten, and we’ll be in August arguing about schools again. Oh, and a bunch of offices will try to kill off working from home and then be faced with being blamed for infecting their employees.
Not great. I was just starting to get hopeful that maybe we would be okay by the end of the year.
13. "I disagree (re: the impossibility of back to normal)" In response to Reply # 12
If vaccines control it like it should, then there would be no NEED for the stuff you are talking about (hybrid schools, remote work, etc). People might make the choice to do those things, out of preference or cost savings. But it won't be necessary
24. "define normal, then. systemic failure would be 1 part of that..." In response to Reply # 13
you really want that back?
>If vaccines control it like it should, then there would be no >NEED for the stuff you are talking about (hybrid schools, >remote work, etc).
while that could be argued, its not really about that we do or don't need it...its about redefining what our needs actually are. that's what covid forced us to do. Now we can't unsee the fact that all work does not have to be done in a communal space to be productive and kids don't necessarily NEED to be in school 5 days a week.
>People might make the choice to do those things, out of >preference or cost savings. But it won't be necessary
but what if some realize its.......better?
"But rest assured, in my luxurious house built on the backs of people darker than me, I am sipping fine scotch and scoffing at how stupid you are." - bshelly
23. "me too, and we never closed anyway" In response to Reply # 17
the mask mandate was through gritted teeth after cases went through the roof over the summer. but nobody's behavior has changed drastically -- it's the same full restaurants (masks to enter, off for 1.5 hours while you eat and talk), people at Six Flags, football games, etc...
30. "I'm getting optimistic (and pessimistic) that it could be very soon." In response to Reply # 0 Thu Mar-04-21 07:29 PM by stravinskian
Like mid summer.
The downside of this (the reason I say this is partly pessimism) is that if we do get out of this without another big surge, then a narrative starts to set in that the most reckless governors (Abbott and DeSantis) were "right all along"; we will have learned nothing, and it's even harder to take an informed approach to the next national crisis.
But the reason I don't expect this to take much longer: these vaccines work! They work really damn well. The variants are really dangerous (this is a great case-study in natural selection, BTW, if OKP ever wants to restart flamewars about evolution), but all of these vaccines work really damn well at slowing the spread, even of these variants, and they almost completely shut down the serious health risks.
So if most of the population gets vaccinated, especially the people who are most at risk (and so far progress on this has been really good), then, worst-case scenario: we don't stop the spread, but we almost completely shut down the serious cases and deaths. In other words, we finally turn it into "just another cold virus."
What if the virus keeps mutating? It will, especially if we don't get the case numbers down. But there's no reason to think that our immunity (through vaccination, infection, or both) will stop protecting us from serious cases and deaths. Just like cold viruses regularly mutate but rarely become dangerous, the same will likely be true of covid variants.
It's looking a lot like SARS-CoV-2 has been dangerous not because it's a fundamentally more damaging kind of respiratory virus, but actually just because it was so new that our immune systems didn't know how to handle it, so it could cause more unpredictable and systemic effects in the body.
Maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe dangerous variants will come along every year. But this is where the miracle of mRNA vaccine technology comes in. I don't think people understand what a huge scientific breakthrough this was. There may be other OKPs with more knowledge about this than myself (certainly in the old days there were), but my understanding is that this technology lets us tailor a vaccine to any persistent strain of virus from nothing more than that virus's genome. Pfizer has already said that if a booster is needed to treat the current variants, they'd have it ready to ship in about six weeks.
So, in the very scary event that dangerous variants keep coming, AND they're able to evade current vaccines, we keep getting ready-made boosters for a few years and we're done. We can update the vaccines faster than evolution can update the virus!
This might be the only post I've ever made on OKP where I've been more optimistic than most everyone else. But this is a battle that science can win, and it already is winning, even if people keep fucking things up along the way.
32. "New CDC guidelines on activities you can do if vaccinated" In response to Reply # 0 Mon Mar-08-21 11:39 AM by PimpTrickGangstaClik
I see this release was a way to encourage people to hurry up and get their shots.
Here's the CDC's specific guidance for what fully vaccinated people can do:
"Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing; "Visit with unvaccinated people from a single household who are at low risk for severe COVID-19 disease indoors without wearing masks or physical distancing "Refrain from quarantine and testing following a known exposure to COVID-19 if asymptomatic"
The CDC said fully vaccinated people should continue to take these COVID-19 precautions:
"Take precautions in public like wearing a well-fitted mask and physical distancing "Wear masks, practice physical distancing, and adhere to other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people who are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease or who have an unvaccinated household member who is at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease "Wear masks, maintain physical distance, and practice other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people from multiple households "Avoid medium- and large-sized in-person gatherings "Get tested if experiencing COVID-19 symptoms "Follow guidance issued by individual employers "Follow CDC and health department travel requirements and recommendations"
34. "RE: New CDC guidelines on activities you can do if vaccinated" In response to Reply # 32
>I see this release was a way to encourage people to hurry up >and get their shots. > > >Here's the CDC's specific guidance for what fully vaccinated >people can do: > >"Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without >wearing masks or physical distancing; >"Visit with unvaccinated people from a single household who >are at low risk for severe COVID-19 disease indoors without >wearing masks or physical distancing >"Refrain from quarantine and testing following a known >exposure to COVID-19 if asymptomatic"
This seems a bit overly optimistic given that the doctors don't know how long the vaccines will protect folks from COVID-19 and the fact variants are around as well. I'm under the impression that I will continue to mask up as long as I step foot outside of my door, and I am someone that received my second vaccine shot late last month.
"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.