"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000," according to IHME's briefing. The death rate could reach an unprecedented 3,000 a day by December, due in part to "declining vigilance of the public," the IHME expects. For now, the model points to declining mask use in some regions from peak usage in early August.
3. "Initial projections were made based on not closing down " In response to Reply # 2
Thats how projections work. Those numbers shouldnt happen if you shutdown. They are based on how you guys were set up at that moment of debating whether you should shutdown. Shutting down worked and new projections were made. Shit increased still. Then you decided it has been long enough and wanted to open up, so new projections based on opening up were made in May. Those projections were 135k deaths by August. You guys are at 187k deaths in September. 😏 I never understand how people can’t figure out how the projections work LOL