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Subject: "About 100 days away from election day. How confident are you feeling?" Previous topic | Next topic
PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
15894 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 09:49 AM

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"Poll question: About 100 days away from election day. How confident are you feeling?"
Mon Jul-27-20 09:52 AM by PimpTrickGangstaClik

          

Poll result (31 votes)
No chance Biden loses. LANDSLIDE! (5 votes)Vote
I think Biden will win, but it will be close. (7 votes)Vote
I put it at 50-50 (14 votes)Vote
Trump squeaks out a victory similar to 2016 (4 votes)Vote
Trump dominates. LANDSLIDE! (1 votes)Vote

  

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
What tricks are going to be pulled out of Trump's bag in October?
Jul 27th 2020
1
The "riots" and sending federal troops into cities are the caravan
Jul 27th 2020
8
He's practicing them now
Jul 28th 2020
24
October surprise?
Jul 28th 2020
28
although recent polling trends are encouraging its too early to matter
Jul 27th 2020
2
Everything right now says Biden in a landslide but I know polls
Jul 27th 2020
3
bingo. they aren't hiding the playbook at all.
Jul 28th 2020
25
I don't see trump getting a win this time.
Jul 27th 2020
4
2016 really fucked me up so I’m still putting it at 50-50
Jul 27th 2020
5
yup. everyone knew Hillary was gonna win
Jul 27th 2020
7
100% confident Biden will win. easily at that
Jul 27th 2020
6
Trump's gonna beat Biden
Jul 27th 2020
9
not at all confident...
Jul 27th 2020
10
Clever or obvious?
Jul 27th 2020
13
      Trump could come out tomorrow and say, "I made a huge mistake.
Jul 27th 2020
15
           I want to believe he’s shitted on enough working class white folk
Jul 27th 2020
16
           it’s the fear...
Jul 27th 2020
21
           ^^^
Jul 27th 2020
18
i'm 50-50. the numbers for Biden look good, BUT they did for Hillary too...
Jul 27th 2020
11
Blue. More so worried about the peaceful transition of power
Jul 27th 2020
12
if i wasn't so sure there would be cheating, i'd say Biden wins....
Jul 27th 2020
14
I was very, very skeptical of Biden, but it's looking like he might
Jul 27th 2020
17
Where's the, "I'm Moving to Ghana" choice?
Jul 27th 2020
19
You out?
Jul 28th 2020
27
I Think Biden Will Win The Popular Vote
Jul 27th 2020
20
SHIT IN A HAT. LICK THE CAT. BURN THE HOUSE.
Jul 28th 2020
22
so far my prediction is on track.
Sep 23rd 2020
59
Biden Wins But Trump Won't Leave isn't up there so I can't vote.
Jul 28th 2020
23
I think Biden will beat Trump but Trump won't "accept" the results.
Jul 28th 2020
26
The senile racist who shouldn't be in elected office will win.
Jul 28th 2020
29
One month later: are you feeling any different?
Aug 25th 2020
30
i still want to wait until mid-september
Aug 25th 2020
31
Nah.. I think he’s up substantially and has no where to go but down.
Aug 25th 2020
33
The conspiracy theorist in me wonders about these protest.
Aug 25th 2020
32
i remain unworried
Aug 25th 2020
39
This election is weighing on my mind very much
Aug 25th 2020
34
Not. Anectodtally, I see a lot of "two sides of the same coin"
Aug 25th 2020
35
RE: Not. Anectodtally, I see a lot of "two sides of the same coin"
Aug 25th 2020
36
      Scratch that. I need to think about that a bit
Aug 25th 2020
38
           To me its about the transition of power.
Aug 25th 2020
40
Bush was let in by Nader voter's and John Roberts got on - civil rights ...
Aug 25th 2020
37
Depends on how much cheating Trump is able to get away with
Aug 25th 2020
41
This. And with that, I'm *extremely* worried.
Aug 25th 2020
45
It's still surreal to me Trump won the first time.
Aug 25th 2020
42
Yeah.. after seeing this mask shit play out
Aug 25th 2020
44
Confident? About what? TENET coming out? Lakers winning? LOL, Confident....
Aug 25th 2020
43
Voted blue
Aug 25th 2020
46
Another month later.... I don't know. Things just feel ominous
Sep 23rd 2020
47
I'm sure it has to be way more juicy / viral / catchy than this:
Sep 23rd 2020
48
seems like biden is still holding on to his lead
Sep 23rd 2020
50
Biden isn’t winning Texas or Georgia
Sep 23rd 2020
53
      RE: Biden isn’t winning Texas or Georgia
Sep 23rd 2020
54
Feels like 2016 all over again
Sep 23rd 2020
51
Biden wins any fair election
Sep 23rd 2020
49
post RBG I actually worry for the first time.
Sep 23rd 2020
52
Trump is reportedly planning a way to bypass the 2020 election results
Sep 23rd 2020
55
He’s not leaving if he loses.
Sep 23rd 2020
57
      Carry his fat ass out and throw him out the door, Uncle Phil style
Sep 23rd 2020
66
Personally, I hear The Rains Of Castamere in my head
Sep 23rd 2020
56
hoping for the best but preparing for the upset...
Sep 23rd 2020
58
Every day I feel less confident. I'm mentally ready trump to win
Sep 23rd 2020
60
Yup. The Breonna Taylor grand jury decision
Sep 23rd 2020
61
i keep thinking how as soon as it came out covid affected minority ..
Sep 23rd 2020
62
100%
Sep 23rd 2020
63
      Yep agreed. I won't consider it a legitimate win, but it doesn't matter.
Sep 23rd 2020
64
Trump isn't winning he's working very hard on stealing
Sep 23rd 2020
65
I'm now confident that the election results are gonna be murky
Sep 25th 2020
67
Out of curiosity.
Sep 25th 2020
68
Nate Silver's website has Biden favored to win
Sep 25th 2020
69
Silver was one of the few who left the door open a little for a Trump wi...
Sep 25th 2020
70
how much of it has to do with foreign interference?
Sep 25th 2020
72
Pretty sure everyone left the door open when it came to the math
Sep 29th 2020
74
She was the heavy favorite until about 9PM of election night.
Sep 25th 2020
71
I'd like to live in the head of people who tell themselves
Sep 29th 2020
75
More than 1 Million People Have Already Voted in the Election (Swipe)
Sep 29th 2020
73
^ what a fool believes
Sep 29th 2020
77
      break it down then.
Sep 29th 2020
78
           It was a crack about Michael McDonald lol. Sorry.
Sep 29th 2020
79
                Lol got it now
Sep 29th 2020
80
Not at all confident-
Sep 29th 2020
76
538 has an interactive map if you want to get your stress levels up
Oct 21st 2020
81
thats a way to kill some time
Oct 21st 2020
82
all the premature blaming is not a good look
Oct 21st 2020
83
Huh? Who’s copping pleas already?
Oct 21st 2020
85
Nobody he just wanted to bring out the cape for Tulsi
Oct 21st 2020
86
fam what are you talking about?
Oct 21st 2020
87
i see no mention of tulsi other than this post
Oct 22nd 2020
90
LMAO
Oct 22nd 2020
91
This is so revealing
Oct 22nd 2020
92
Whut?
Nov 01st 2020
101
I'm optimistic, I am hopeful that the numbers seen in voting is a good t...
Oct 21st 2020
84
Biden will win at least one 'Obama Blue State' b/c COVID
Oct 22nd 2020
88
this is my take as well
Oct 22nd 2020
89
high turnout never bodes well for the GOP
Oct 22nd 2020
93
One week warning. I'm so scared (c)
Oct 26th 2020
94
i see silver, wasserman, enten, etc talking about district level polling...
Oct 26th 2020
95
      A week out four years ago, people were figuring out something was up
Oct 26th 2020
98
1 week, I can't believe it, I'm exhausted. I'm still optimistic.
Oct 26th 2020
96
I’m worried about Trump not conceding...
Oct 26th 2020
97
Why is Joe in Georgia and Kamala in Texas today?!?!
Oct 27th 2020
99
Pundits are hedging now
Nov 01st 2020
100
If it comes down to PA we are screwed.
Nov 01st 2020
102
not good
Nov 01st 2020
104
Yeah I saw this as well and am getting worried now
Nov 01st 2020
103
Sir, you're cherry-picking gloom & doom out of that article
Nov 01st 2020
106
Repub pollster predicts Trump will win...
Nov 01st 2020
105
if Biden/Harris loses Florida, its over.
Nov 02nd 2020
107
Not if they win Texas - which is actually in play
Nov 02nd 2020
108
I don’t see Texas in play.
Nov 02nd 2020
117
RE: I don’t see Texas in play.
Nov 02nd 2020
129
I hope you're right.
Nov 02nd 2020
130
      I hear you. If Biden doesn't carry Penn or Florida
Nov 02nd 2020
133
That’s not true at all.
Nov 02nd 2020
110
I have zero confidence in political polling
Nov 02nd 2020
109
^ less than zero.
Nov 02nd 2020
112
This is how Trump plans to steal the election...
Nov 02nd 2020
111
i aint never hated two people in all my life who dont play fair,
Nov 02nd 2020
127
Did my last calculus and my prediction is: Biden 305; Trump 233
Nov 02nd 2020
113
I feel like Texas is still several cycles away
Nov 02nd 2020
116
      Texas is the Democrats cock tease state
Nov 02nd 2020
118
      tx and az are 2 states where pollsters consistently underestimate dems.
Nov 02nd 2020
125
      I think Texas very well should be in play for Dems right now
Nov 02nd 2020
126
It’s sounding like PA is the key state...if Biden wins PA
Nov 02nd 2020
114
Between Pitt and Philly, it’s “Pennsyltucky”
Nov 02nd 2020
134
im watching out for NC and Florida on election night
Nov 02nd 2020
115
Biden isn’t winning Texas, Iowa, Georgia or Florida
Nov 02nd 2020
119
if i had to bet id agree with you
Nov 02nd 2020
120
MAYBE Florida. (I wish I could type 'maybe' in a bigger font)
Nov 02nd 2020
131
im lightweight optimistic that biden will take florida.
Nov 02nd 2020
121
i'm hoping all the new Puerto Rican voters in FL
Nov 02nd 2020
122
i think there are plenty of clues to think biden could take these states
Nov 02nd 2020
123
I don't think Biden will get Florida or Texas...
Nov 02nd 2020
124
i think something shady will happen...
Nov 02nd 2020
128
georgia looking promising.
Nov 02nd 2020
132
anxious but still pretty confident
Nov 02nd 2020
135
I think (hope) Nate Silver/538 has a decent read on this.
Nov 02nd 2020
136
cautiously optimistic but..
Nov 02nd 2020
137
it says a lot that NOBODY thinks/says trump will win the most votes
Nov 03rd 2020
138

PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
15894 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 09:55 AM

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1. "What tricks are going to be pulled out of Trump's bag in October?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Is there going to be another caravan slowly trekking towards the US?

_______________________________________

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
44717 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:48 AM

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8. "The "riots" and sending federal troops into cities are the caravan"
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

But it will be a faux escalation of hostilities against China and/or Iran.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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Damali
Member since Sep 12th 2002
35865 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 07:33 AM

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24. "He's practicing them now"
In response to Reply # 1


          

- slowing down the mail to thwart/undermine absentee voting
- deploying secret police force to thwart/undermine resistance movements
- activating judiciary to punish his enemies and reward his friends (meaning he may try to find something to 'arrest' joe biden for if he gets really desperate)

d

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 08:48 AM

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28. "October surprise? "
In response to Reply # 1


          

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/kctv5.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/d/10/d1047cd9-8d64-5204-8c87-35d4c060df3b/5f0127b298be6.image.jpg?resize=1120%2C630

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
16414 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:00 AM

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2. "although recent polling trends are encouraging its too early to matter"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

lets see whats up in mid-september.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:03 AM

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3. "Everything right now says Biden in a landslide but I know polls"
In response to Reply # 0


          

ain’t shit.

It will get closer and my biggest concern is voter suppression.

feel like these protest and “secret police will be used to close polling stations.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Damali
Member since Sep 12th 2002
35865 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 07:34 AM

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25. "bingo. they aren't hiding the playbook at all."
In response to Reply # 3


          

  

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tariqhu
Charter member
17890 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:10 AM

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4. "I don't see trump getting a win this time."
In response to Reply # 0


          

last time, I said he'd get it because I didn't trust middle america to make the better call.

I think he's hurt more of his followers and doesn't realize some of them are moving away from him. he'll still have his cheerleaders hollerin MURICA, but I hoping this corona shit and sending troops on US cities, along with all the lies and other bs he's done will bury him.

no way this economy is back by November. that's his only hope.

Y'all buy those labels, I was born supreme

  

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blkprinceMD05
Member since Nov 29th 2004
41323 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:23 AM

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5. "2016 really fucked me up so I’m still putting it at 50-50"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Everything is looking good, every day I get more encouraged that Biden will win, we’ll take back the senate and at the very least hold the house but I felt confident HRC would win in 2016, so u just never know

prototype

stand ur ground, believe in urself,
believe in love, prepare urself for love, remove the negativity from ur life, and accept the love u kno u deserve

  

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Mynoriti
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38818 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:46 AM

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7. "yup. everyone knew Hillary was gonna win"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

TRUMP knew Hillary was gonna win

I don't want people getting complacent.

it looks promising at the moment but i'll be on edge until Biden is actually sworn in.

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
85071 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 10:36 AM

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6. "100% confident Biden will win. easily at that"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

never felt the same (and im on record on here) about Hillary vs Trump

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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flipnile
Member since Nov 05th 2003
13573 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 11:36 AM

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9. "Trump's gonna beat Biden"
In response to Reply # 0
Mon Jul-27-20 11:37 AM by flipnile

          

Probably gonna start some shit in the US to get everyone afraid, then put that bass in his voice portraying himself as the tough guy we need to get us through this. Might even start a war.

Don't know if Biden's gonna be savvy enough to get through the goofy shit coming up in the US.



This election season is gonna be crazy. Once it starts getting chilly in the US it's on.

  

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Trinity444
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41728 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 11:45 AM

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10. "not at all confident..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

anyone else notice how he’s cleaning up his act?

these bastards are clever as hell

come fall I hope folks ready to vote...

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 12:44 PM

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13. "Clever or obvious? "
In response to Reply # 10


          

It’s still going to come down to PA, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin and I don’t have confidence in white people once they get in the booth.

His base is loyal and Biden hiding is a good strategy but eventually he has to get out there and speak... and who knows what Biden will say.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Buddy_Gilapagos
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49412 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 03:59 PM

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15. "Trump could come out tomorrow and say, "I made a huge mistake."
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

I get it now. I will be the president of all Americans and We will be Corona Virus together" and if he stuck to that script through November. He would win.

Trump has shown that he is incapable of that sort of disciplined, humble moment, but if his life were on the line MAYBE he could do it to stay out of jail and win re-election.

And that what scares me. This country only wants a bare minimum from him and its crazy he hasn't been able to do.

But I don't think he is soo far gone with White People that he can't win.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 04:35 PM

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16. "I want to believe he’s shitted on enough working class white folk"
In response to Reply # 15


          

that he can’t show them with a few words but we all know how these folk get down.

Biden has the perfect amount of racist rhetoric in his past to appease some of these old heads tho. He’s the perfect candidates for white grandparents with that mixed grandbaby.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Trinity444
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Mon Jul-27-20 10:34 PM

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21. "it’s the fear..."
In response to Reply # 16


  

          

anyone’s mind can be changed if they fear something.

our buddy told us months ago, “we’re open”

but, messing with folks normality

50/50 my ass

our buddy using the entire playbook...






  

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blkprinceMD05
Member since Nov 29th 2004
41323 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 06:54 PM

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18. "^^^"
In response to Reply # 15


  

          

prototype

stand ur ground, believe in urself,
believe in love, prepare urself for love, remove the negativity from ur life, and accept the love u kno u deserve

  

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PROMO
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Mon Jul-27-20 12:00 PM

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11. "i'm 50-50. the numbers for Biden look good, BUT they did for Hillary too..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

that said, the biggest reason i'm suspect is voter supression/electrion fraud

  

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Amritsar
Member since Jan 18th 2008
32093 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 12:29 PM

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12. "Blue. More so worried about the peaceful transition of power "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

That has me shook actually


  

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My_SP1200_Broken_Again
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Mon Jul-27-20 01:31 PM

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14. "if i wasn't so sure there would be cheating, i'd say Biden wins...."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

....but who the fuck knows


< Live Mixshow - Thurs 11PM/EST >
https://twitch.tv/djchiefone

----Mixtape Archives-----
https://soundcloud.com/djchiefone

  

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Teknontheou
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Mon Jul-27-20 06:49 PM

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17. "I was very, very skeptical of Biden, but it's looking like he might"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

pull this out.

I still want to see how things look after the debates, particularly the first debate. I have this fear that Trump is going to slice and dice him and that will reverse Biden's gains.

The other thing is that due to the overall circumstances, the VP pick and the VP debates are going to be huge because I see a substantial chance that the Democratic VP will become president before 2024, and/or could very easily be the presumptive nominee in 2024. It's almost as if we are voting for the next two presidents all at once right now.

  

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Case_One
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Mon Jul-27-20 09:33 PM

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19. "Where's the, "I'm Moving to Ghana" choice?"
In response to Reply # 0


          


.
.

“It was the evidence from science and history that prompted me to abandon my atheism and become a Christian.” — Lee Strobel, The Case for Christ

The Case for Christ Lecture: https://youtu.be/67uj2qvQi_k

Good News: https://www.goodnewsnetwork

  

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flipnile
Member since Nov 05th 2003
13573 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 08:22 AM

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27. "You out?"
In response to Reply # 19


          

I've started looking into it (real talk). One thing that came up right away is that, with any move, I want to move with some $$$ so I can acquire some property to live & farm on. At least a couple hundred grand. Not at that point yet, but we'll see five years from now.

  

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Dj Joey Joe
Member since Sep 01st 2007
13770 posts
Mon Jul-27-20 09:53 PM

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20. "I Think Biden Will Win The Popular Vote"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I'm just not sure about or trust our electoral college, they already jerked us one two many times, I'm ready for some scary shit (t.rump squeezing out a electoral college win), the real question is the country ready for the backlash if that happens cause it will go down as hell week for the country.

With that being said I'm hoping, really really hoping, t.rump losing, and lose badly to Biden, we need a sigh of relief in this place.


https://tinyurl.com/y4ba6hog

---------
"We in here talking about later career Prince records
& your fool ass is cruising around in a time machine
trying to collect props for a couple of sociopathic degenerates" - s.blak

  

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double negative
Member since Dec 14th 2007
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Tue Jul-28-20 06:58 AM

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22. "SHIT IN A HAT. LICK THE CAT. BURN THE HOUSE. "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

as in, non of those options make sense for what I think will happen which be some unexpected shit you can't even begin to imagine.

***********************************************************
https://soundcloud.com/swageyph/yph-die-with-me

  

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double negative
Member since Dec 14th 2007
22151 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 02:25 PM

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59. "so far my prediction is on track. "
In response to Reply # 22


  

          

RGB, gone.

Covid still going

a buncha other shit I dont have time to remember

***********************************************************
https://soundcloud.com/swageyph/yph-die-with-me

  

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Damali
Member since Sep 12th 2002
35865 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 07:30 AM

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23. "Biden Wins But Trump Won't Leave isn't up there so I can't vote."
In response to Reply # 0
Tue Jul-28-20 07:31 AM by Damali

          

actually the two likely scenarios are:

Trump cheats & wins and we're all fucked

Trump cheats, still loses, completely destroys the country during his 3 month lame duck session (we're all fucked), then refuses to leave office for as long as he can

d

  

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lightworks
Member since Feb 17th 2006
5818 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 08:18 AM

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26. "I think Biden will beat Trump but Trump won't "accept" the results."
In response to Reply # 0


          

Or Trump will try to delay the election somehow someway.

  

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kayru99
Member since Jan 26th 2004
16105 posts
Tue Jul-28-20 10:41 AM

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29. "The senile racist who shouldn't be in elected office will win."
In response to Reply # 0


          

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
15894 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 09:54 AM

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30. "One month later: are you feeling any different?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

The persistent unrest and protests are making me less and less confident in Biden's chances.

I think Trump successfully tied them to Democrats. Whether they are justified or not, I think it's wearing on people.

Still think Biden wins, but I'm more towards the straight toss up region than before

_______________________________________

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
16414 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 10:26 AM

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31. "i still want to wait until mid-september"
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

biden seems to be holding his position. should we expect him to be expanding the lead?

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 10:31 AM

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33. "Nah.. I think he’s up substantially and has no where to go but down. "
In response to Reply # 31


          

Expect a bump for Trump after the RNC

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 10:29 AM

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32. "The conspiracy theorist in me wonders about these protest. "
In response to Reply # 30


          

Seems like they always come up before elections and these murders on film get us out in the street.

Which ends up making the GOP look like the best choice to keep white people safe.

Easiest way to keep white folk together is to show Black folks making demands and gains.. I expect the polling in the suburbs to contract a bit the closer we get to November

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
85071 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 11:09 AM

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39. "i remain unworried"
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
16125 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 10:41 AM

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34. "This election is weighing on my mind very much"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I am cautiously optimistic. I was sure there was no way trump would win in 2016, now who knows.

All I know is I'm going to make sure I vote, remind everyone I know to vote, and volunteer for Biden.

That is what I can do.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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Cold Truth
Member since Jan 28th 2004
44843 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 10:54 AM

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35. "Not. Anectodtally, I see a lot of "two sides of the same coin""
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

type of arguments in my bubble, regarding Biden and Trump- and I'm seeing it solely from people who have been vocally anti-trump. It's a lot of "I'd rather starve than eat from a trash can" and the like- and then advocating for Jorgensen.

I don't think my social media feeds are indicative of the entire country, but it gives me serious pause that people who I've seen trash Trump for four years see this as two equally bad choices.

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
16125 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 10:58 AM

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36. "RE: Not. Anectodtally, I see a lot of "two sides of the same coin""
In response to Reply # 35


  

          


>I don't think my social media feeds are indicative of the
>entire country, but it gives me serious pause that people who
>I've seen trash Trump for four years see this as two equally
>bad choices.

This kills me. I would literally rather have all the past Republican presidents take another term than trump. That is how much I think trump is dangerous

Its not even close to the same in terms of choice.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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Cold Truth
Member since Jan 28th 2004
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Tue Aug-25-20 11:09 AM

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38. "Scratch that. I need to think about that a bit"
In response to Reply # 36
Tue Aug-25-20 11:17 AM by Cold Truth

  

          

Because, while i agree flippantly... I wonder how big a difference it would really be.

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
16125 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 12:57 PM

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40. "To me its about the transition of power. "
In response to Reply # 38


  

          

All of the past repub prez have been detrimental, at least the question on the transition of power was never called into question. At least as far as I am aware.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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c71
Member since Jan 15th 2008
13962 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 11:06 AM

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37. "Bush was let in by Nader voter's and John Roberts got on - civil rights ..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Polling places closed

Trump got in Bernie or bust and 200 judges appointed


....uh....


Left wing people did some Susan Sarandon "things just have to get worse" (yeah that's 'working' in Chicago) so now.....after Bush/Justice Roberts/civil rights ruling and Trump/200 judges...


Whatever...if Bush and Trump got in....hey..that's the real possibility of 2020 again...time for being on point was 2000 and 2016

I've already seen results of the left wing Nader voters Bernie or bust thing

  

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DJR
Member since Jan 01st 2005
18636 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 01:06 PM

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41. "Depends on how much cheating Trump is able to get away with"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

He’s not even attempting to hide it. He’s going to blatantly cheat as much as possible, while at the same time lying and trying to pin everything on the Dems.

Depends on how effective his cheating ends up being.

  

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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
24419 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 01:57 PM

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45. "This. And with that, I'm *extremely* worried."
In response to Reply # 41


          

>RE: Depends on how much cheating Trump is able to get away with
>He’s not even attempting to hide it. He’s going to
>blatantly cheat as much as possible, while at the same time
>lying and trying to pin everything on the Dems.
>
>Depends on how effective his cheating ends up being.

----------------------------------------

"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

  

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Numba_33
Charter member
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Tue Aug-25-20 01:36 PM

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42. "It's still surreal to me Trump won the first time."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Given how moronic folks are with wearing masks, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins. Some folks are just alright with acting against their best interests out of sheer ignorance and pride. Hard to overcome that.

The majority of why I feel this way is because I'm not the biggest fan of Biden. Not to say that I won't vote for him, but I wouldn't be shocked if folks actually want four more years of Trump at this point, as sad as that would be.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 01:48 PM

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44. "Yeah.. after seeing this mask shit play out "
In response to Reply # 42


          

it’s hard to feel confident about America.



****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Nodima
Member since Jul 30th 2008
15297 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 01:40 PM

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43. "Confident? About what? TENET coming out? Lakers winning? LOL, Confident...."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          


~~~~~~~~~
"This is the streets, and I am the trap." � Jay Bilas
http://www.popmatters.com/pm/archive/contributor/517
Hip Hop Handbook: http://tinyurl.com/ll4kzz

  

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wluv
Member since Jan 27th 2003
4362 posts
Tue Aug-25-20 02:06 PM

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46. " Voted blue"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Just practicing ahead of time.

Last time I was overconfident and that last lost has permanently gotten away from being overconfident ever again. But im pretty confident Biden wont lose the 3 Dem strongholds of Wis, Mich, and Pennsyl that Hilldawg lost. And i dont see Biden losing any states that Hillary won last time. If the Dems losing those 3 states twice in a row........

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
15894 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:11 AM

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47. "Another month later.... I don't know. Things just feel ominous"
In response to Reply # 0


          

It feels like the Falcons vs Patriots in the super bowl.

Biden was riding super high a couple months ago. Mishandling of coronavirus virus was pretty much all anyone could think of. Then there was the early parts of the protests and trump's mishandling of that. And Biden seemed to be blowing Trump away in all the polls.

I'm always pessimistic in politics. But I was feeling cautiously optimistic about Biden at the start of this post.


Now it feels as time chugs along, Trump is bouncing back. Feels like covid isn't on people's minds like it once was. The protests lost some of their widespread support. And recent polls aren't the blowouts they once were.

I hope Biden's team can find something that sticks for the next month. Maybe the supreme court battle can work in their favor?

_______________________________________

  

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Bambino Grande
Member since Mar 14th 2019
965 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:26 AM

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48. "I'm sure it has to be way more juicy / viral / catchy than this:"
In response to Reply # 47


          


>
>I hope Biden's team can find something that sticks for the
>next month. Maybe the supreme court battle can work in their
>favor?

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
16414 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:35 AM

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50. "seems like biden is still holding on to his lead"
In response to Reply # 47


  

          

if people go out and vote biden will win.

will trump be able to distort it effectively to put the results in question? i hope there is a plan to prevent this.

i think biden will need to turn a combination of florida georgia and texas to blunt the potential doubt. i dont know if only one of those states would be enough. two should be. if he wins two of those on election night it will be hard to claim he did not win the election.

i do think he will win florida, not sure about texas or georgia.

the biggest thing that gives me some hope biden will win is that most polls show him gaining over 50% of the vote in enough swing states. if his lead was 47 to 45 or something along those lines i would expect the remaining percentage would go mostly to trump. clearing and holding 50% for this long i think matters.

people do need to vote though.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:46 AM

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53. "Biden isn’t winning Texas or Georgia"
In response to Reply # 50


          

Hopefully he wins Florida.

Really comes down to PA, Michigan and Wisconsin

I hate how the EC makes so many states unimportant in these elections.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
16414 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:53 AM

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54. "RE: Biden isn’t winning Texas or Georgia"
In response to Reply # 53


  

          

>Hopefully he wins Florida.
>
>Really comes down to PA, Michigan and Wisconsin
>
>I hate how the EC makes so many states unimportant in these
>elections.

i will be shocked if he wins texas or georgia. theyre close but i dont believe it happening. i do think he wins florida. took me a couple of months to get on board with that.

michigan and wisconsin should be wins. im a bit confused at pennsylvania. seems like its mixed. wi and mi seem to be holding for biden but feels like every other day theres an article saying trump is leading pa then biden.

in a fair election biden will win the ec. im just afraid the narrative will be a premature claim to victory by trump on election night. the only way that will be negated is if biden gets a few big states hes not expected to win. i say its unlikely but possible.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:44 AM

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51. "Feels like 2016 all over again"
In response to Reply # 47


          

When folks tell me they can’t get Biden signs or merch it’s a problem.

How can Biden have al this money and still be so slow to engage. I posted somewhere else about how this feels like a money grab and the Dems are just playing the Washing Senators right now.

A lot of energy was spent on protesting equality and police funding and once again it feels like we are going to get played. Whole time we are being triggered by these snuff films they are working behind the scenes to gain more power.

We get tshirts and logos.. they get Supreme Court picks and another 4 years.

I hope I’m wrong.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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handle
Charter member
18951 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:32 AM

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49. "Biden wins any fair election"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Trump is working to make it unfair.

------------


Gone: My Discogs collection for The Roots:
http://www.discogs.com/user/tomhayes-roots/collection

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
85071 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 10:44 AM

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52. "post RBG I actually worry for the first time."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
16414 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 12:55 PM

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55. "Trump is reportedly planning a way to bypass the 2020 election results"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-electoral-college-electors-plan-loyalists-swing-states-2020-9

The Trump campaign is reportedly planning a way to bypass the 2020 election results in key swing states

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 02:18 PM

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57. "He’s not leaving if he loses. "
In response to Reply # 55


          

We are going to have burn that place down and smoke him out.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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DJR
Member since Jan 01st 2005
18636 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 06:17 PM

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66. "Carry his fat ass out and throw him out the door, Uncle Phil style"
In response to Reply # 57


  

          

  

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Cold Truth
Member since Jan 28th 2004
44843 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 01:00 PM

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56. "Personally, I hear The Rains Of Castamere in my head"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I'm a pessimist in general though.

  

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Trinity444
Charter member
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Wed Sep-23-20 02:25 PM

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58. "hoping for the best but preparing for the upset..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

this election will be stolen in plain sight...

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
16125 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 02:49 PM

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60. "Every day I feel less confident. I'm mentally ready trump to win"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I think because white america by and large feel comfortable that they will be ok.

As long as they are ok, they can live with the discomfort that trump will bring.

They have been ok with all the other shit that has been done, its not going to stop them now.

American is a rigged nation. Only way to put it.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79592 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 03:04 PM

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61. "Yup. The Breonna Taylor grand jury decision"
In response to Reply # 60


          

the Kenosha hero
RGB and the Supreme Court
lack of empathy for POC

I mean... this country is telling us how they really feel

Trump winning shouldn’t again shouldn’t shock anyone.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Mynoriti
Charter member
38818 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 03:09 PM

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62. "i keep thinking how as soon as it came out covid affected minority .."
In response to Reply # 60


  

          

communities disproportionately, how immediately all the "open america now!" not wearing a mask because, my rights shit kicked in

i was pretty confident the virus would do him in, now i can't call it.

>I think because white america by and large feel comfortable
>that they will be ok.
>
>As long as they are ok, they can live with the discomfort that
>trump will bring.
>
>They have been ok with all the other shit that has been done,
>its not going to stop them now.
>
>American is a rigged nation. Only way to put it.

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
16125 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 04:03 PM

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63. "100% "
In response to Reply # 62


  

          

If this orange fuck doesn't lose after 200K+ are dead, there isn't hope for this country.

I don't know what the future will be for America, but it doesn't look good. Handmaids Tale for real.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
24419 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 04:26 PM

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64. "Yep agreed. I won't consider it a legitimate win, but it doesn't matter."
In response to Reply # 63
Wed Sep-23-20 04:30 PM by Brew

          

>If this orange fuck doesn't lose after 200K+ are dead, there
>isn't hope for this country.

He's cheating his ass off but things - literally everything - are so bad that even WITH cheating, he should *still* lose by a wide margin if we live in a country that has any chance in hell.

So with that in mind, I'm with you: if he wins - or, "wins" - again, I'm done. This country is hopeless and not worth fighting for. I've said that a lot recently. I'll give up any hope for the country at large and will instead spend my physical, emotional, mental, financial energy on helping people locally rather than spending anymore time or energy on this shithole country we live in.

If Biden wins, there'll still be a ton of work to do - not only to undo the last 4 years but the last 4 centuries. But if he wins at least I'll have some hope left that we're savable .. and more importantly *worth* saving.

----------------------------------------

"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

  

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navajo joe
Member since Apr 13th 2005
6573 posts
Wed Sep-23-20 06:00 PM

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65. "Trump isn't winning he's working very hard on stealing"
In response to Reply # 60


          

That is a very important distinction.

Conceding a win is legitimizing a coup before it is even pulled off.

Trump isn't even TRYING to win the election but he, and every single Republican, is trying to steal it.

The question isn't 'will Trump win?' the question is 'will he be allowed to steal it?'

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

  

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flipnile
Member since Nov 05th 2003
13573 posts
Fri Sep-25-20 11:39 AM

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67. "I'm now confident that the election results are gonna be murky"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Gonna be accusations from the reds and the blues of cheating, vote manipulation, etc.

Everything is already looking shady-as-fuck.

Trump messing with the post office before this election should be a crime.

  

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Numba_33
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Fri Sep-25-20 11:55 AM

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68. "Out of curiosity."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Was Hilary Clinton the presumed winner four years ago similar to how I keep seeing on the news that Biden is pretty much the presumed winner this time around? I only remember that famous pollster Nate Silver from 538 getting the results amazingly incorrect four years ago.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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luminous
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Fri Sep-25-20 12:02 PM

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69. "Nate Silver's website has Biden favored to win"
In response to Reply # 68


  

          

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

If you need any help, don't. Hesitate to ask.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Fri Sep-25-20 12:07 PM

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70. "Silver was one of the few who left the door open a little for a Trump wi..."
In response to Reply # 68


          

He had something like a 72% chance of a Clinton win (eerily close to his 76% chance for Biden right now).
But pretty much everyone else made it a guarantee up until election day.

People have learned from their mistakes. I don't see the presumed winner narrative this time around like you do.


>Was Hilary Clinton the presumed winner four years ago similar
>to how I keep seeing on the news that Biden is pretty much the
>presumed winner this time around? I only remember that famous
>pollster Nate Silver from 538 getting the results amazingly
>incorrect four years ago.

  

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Trinity444
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72. "how much of it has to do with foreign interference? "
In response to Reply # 70
Fri Sep-25-20 01:40 PM by Trinity444

  

          

like, did anyone have this in mind before making predictions...

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Tue Sep-29-20 11:27 AM

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74. "Pretty sure everyone left the door open when it came to the math"
In response to Reply # 70


          

but everyone was screaming it was a wrap and no one on here was pointing at 538 as proof Trump had a legit shot.

I still think people are using the popular vote and not the EC for the battleground states as a true barometer on Trumps chances to win.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Teknontheou
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Fri Sep-25-20 01:13 PM

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71. "She was the heavy favorite until about 9PM of election night."
In response to Reply # 68


  

          

  

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Rjcc
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75. "I'd like to live in the head of people who tell themselves"
In response to Reply # 68


          

"nate silver from 538 got it wrong"

not because he had it wrong or right, but because you've clearly never so much as been to dude's website and certainly weren't keeping up with what he was saying at the time of the election.

it's such a weird thing to just imagine as true

www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

  

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navajo joe
Member since Apr 13th 2005
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Tue Sep-29-20 11:22 AM

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73. "More than 1 Million People Have Already Voted in the Election (Swipe)"
In response to Reply # 0


          

You can view the US Elections Project data here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/09/28/more-than-1-million-people-have-already-voted-in-the-election/#3a757af51761

More than one million votes have already been cast in the November election, according to data from the United States Election Project, marking a noticeable increase over voting trends in 2016 even before the first presidential debate.

As of press time, 1,012,211 ballots have been cast so far in states that publicly report that data and already have voting underway: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The three states reporting voter registration data—Florida, Iowa and North Carolina—report that 53.8% of their votes have been cast by registered Democrats, as compared with 16.7% of Republicans and 29.2% of unaffiliated voters.

Voters in 24 states have so far requested 64,157,727 mail-in ballots, and CNN noted Friday that the number of ballot requests in 15 states had already exceeded the total number of votes cast prior to election day in 2016.

In a blog post Sunday, Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who runs the Elections Project, an informational site, noted the actual number of ballots cast is likely higher—as complete records are not available for all states—and the increase over 2016 is likely due to state laws expanding early voting, an increase in mail-in voting due to the pandemic and voter interest.

A recent Washington Post/University of Maryland poll found that 61% of registered voters prefer to vote early in this election, as compared with only 41% who said they voted early in 2016; not all states will actually start counting those votes prior to polls closing on election day, however.


BIG NUMBER

50 million. That’s the approximate number of votes cast prior to election day in 2016, according to CNN. 136,669,276 total votes were cast in the 2016 presidential election, according to the Federal Elections Commission.

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“We’ve never seen so many people vote this far in advance of a presidential election before,” McDonald told the Independent Monday. “We are in uncharted territory.”

KEY BACKGROUND

The actual act of voting has increasingly come under scrutiny in the run-up to the November election, with President Donald Trump repeatedly attacking mail-in voting as the practice becomes increasingly popular amid the Covid-19 pandemic. (Trump’s claims that mail-in voting will lead to voter fraud are not backed up by any evidence, which shows that mail-in voter fraud is extremely rare.) The reliance on mail-in voting has also increased the likelihood that the winner of the presidential election will not be known until after election day—potentially sowing chaos—which has resulted in prominent figures like Michelle Obama calling for voters to cast their ballots prior to election day. The million-vote milestone also comes following reports of long lines at in-person polling places in multiple states as early voting has gotten underway in September.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

A number of states still have not even yet started their early voting yet, as in-person voting is only underway in nine states so far and will start in October in a further 38 states. Many states have also not yet started mailing ballots out to voters yet, according to state policies compiled by the National Conference of State Legislatures, including Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Utah and Washington.

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

  

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CIPHA
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77. "^ what a fool believes"
In response to Reply # 73


          

_____________________________________

Let me guess, I can have "good day" now, right?

  

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navajo joe
Member since Apr 13th 2005
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Tue Sep-29-20 06:33 PM

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78. "break it down then. "
In response to Reply # 77


          

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

  

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CIPHA
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79. "It was a crack about Michael McDonald lol. Sorry. "
In response to Reply # 78


          

_____________________________________

Let me guess, I can have "good day" now, right?

  

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navajo joe
Member since Apr 13th 2005
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80. "Lol got it now"
In response to Reply # 79


          

I got the reference but I had already forgot dude in the article was named Michael McDonald.

-------------------------------

A lot of you players ain't okay.

We would have been better off with an okaycivics board instead of an okayactivist board

  

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vik
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76. "Not at all confident-"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Dude is doing his best to steal this election by hook or by crook.. We all must mobilize.

---

But hell, what do I know?

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Wed Oct-21-20 11:25 AM

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81. "538 has an interactive map if you want to get your stress levels up"
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

According to him, it looks like Pennsylvania is the key. If Trump wins Penn, I guess that's an indication that forecasts were wrong and it all comes crashing down like 2016

Also a trump win in FL turns it into close to a 50-50 race

_______________________________________

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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82. "thats a way to kill some time"
In response to Reply # 81


  

          

i went ahead and decided each state that was >99 for either of them then continued until i had decided any state with a >90 chance for them. after the >99 i looked at each state and decided the one with the highest odds first then looked at each state odds again.

this is where it lead me
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#ID:1,WY:1,NE:1,OK:1,NY:0,VT:0,MA:0,CT:0,RI:0,MD:0,DE:0,VA:0,IL:0,CA:0,WA:0,WV:1,KY:1,AL:1,AR:1,ND:1,NJ:0,TN:1,OR:0,SD:1,NM:0,IN:1,MO:1,KS:1,LA:1,UT:1,SC:1,MS:1,CO:0,MT:1,M1:0,N1:1,N3:1,HI:0,MI:0,MN:0,ME:0,NH:0,WI:0,PA:0,NV:0,DC:0

after continuing this is the finalish map
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#ID:1,WY:1,NE:1,OK:1,NY:0,VT:0,MA:0,CT:0,RI:0,MD:0,DE:0,VA:0,IL:0,CA:0,WA:0,WV:1,KY:1,AL:1,AR:1,ND:1,NJ:0,TN:1,OR:0,SD:1,NM:0,IN:1,MO:1,KS:1,LA:1,UT:1,SC:1,MS:1,CO:0,MT:1,M1:0,N1:1,N3:1,HI:0,MI:0,MN:0,ME:0,NH:0,WI:0,PA:0,NV:0,DC:0,N2:0,FL:0,AZ:0,NC:0,AK:1,OH:0,IA:0,GA:0,M2:0

up to this point every state decided had odds of >70. most were >80.

deciding texas with such a close margin would be a leap.

what does this all mean??? nothing at all lol

  

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Vex_id
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83. "all the premature blaming is not a good look"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Lot of people seem more intent on pre-writing their fuego takes on who's to blame if Trump is re-elected than they are putting forth genuine energy to unify and defeat Trump.

But I suppose that's what happens when more time/energy is spent on obsessing about people like Tulsi Gabbard than actually making a positive, affirmative case for non-politicos to actually vote.


-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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85. "Huh? Who’s copping pleas already? "
In response to Reply # 83


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Lurkmode
Member since May 07th 2011
5187 posts
Wed Oct-21-20 01:59 PM

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86. "Nobody he just wanted to bring out the cape for Tulsi"
In response to Reply # 85


  

          

smh

---------------------------
Signature

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Wed Oct-21-20 02:11 PM

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87. "fam what are you talking about?"
In response to Reply # 83


          

  

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Ashy Achilles
Member since Sep 22nd 2005
4550 posts
Thu Oct-22-20 03:37 PM

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90. "i see no mention of tulsi other than this post"
In response to Reply # 83


          

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
4876 posts
Thu Oct-22-20 03:39 PM

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91. "LMAO"
In response to Reply # 83


          

  

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Amritsar
Member since Jan 18th 2008
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Thu Oct-22-20 03:41 PM

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92. "This is so revealing "
In response to Reply # 83


  

          

  

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makaveli
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101. "Whut?"
In response to Reply # 83


  

          

“So back we go to these questions — friendship, character… ethics.”

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
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Wed Oct-21-20 01:47 PM

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84. "I'm optimistic, I am hopeful that the numbers seen in voting is a good t..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

I really hope this means more people came out for Biden.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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Dr Claw
Member since Jun 25th 2003
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Thu Oct-22-20 03:20 PM

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88. "Biden will win at least one 'Obama Blue State' b/c COVID"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

any credit he gets in this regard needs to keep that simple fact in mind.

more people are voting which makes me believe that the Trump CULT is gonna get a rude awakening.

  

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Ashy Achilles
Member since Sep 22nd 2005
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Thu Oct-22-20 03:36 PM

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89. "this is my take as well"
In response to Reply # 88


          

>more people are voting which makes me believe that the Trump
>CULT is gonna get a rude awakening.

but i refuse to get my hopes up too high

  

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Amritsar
Member since Jan 18th 2008
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Thu Oct-22-20 03:42 PM

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93. "high turnout never bodes well for the GOP"
In response to Reply # 88
Thu Oct-22-20 03:42 PM by Amritsar

  

          

to my knowledge.


You can attribute it to covid, yes. Fact is the DNC is galvanized and here to stay

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Mon Oct-26-20 08:57 PM

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94. "One week warning. I'm so scared (c)"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I'm refreshing 538 every few hours. Over analyzing early voting numbers.
I want it all to end!

I'm still nervous though. I got to conservative sites, they are confident of a Trump landslide.
I go to other sites, and Biden's got it on a landslide.

There are going to be a lot of very angry surprised people

_______________________________________

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
16347 posts
Mon Oct-26-20 09:18 PM

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95. "i see silver, wasserman, enten, etc talking about district level polling..."
In response to Reply # 94


          

district polling can tell you voter behavior that state/national polling isnt picking up on.

for instance...there were signs of trouble coming clintons way in district polls that werent showing up broader polls.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

fwiw district level polling this year is showing an even bigger biden margin than the national averages.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1319819274668605441

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Mon Oct-26-20 10:26 PM

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98. "A week out four years ago, people were figuring out something was up"
In response to Reply # 95
Mon Oct-26-20 10:27 PM by mrhood75

  

          

And that the polling wasn't telling the whole story.

I vividly remember Silver writing a whole column about all the different election night scenarios, and how Drumf winning was a very real possibility.

Obama was on the campaign trail in Wisconsin and Ohio imploring voters, "Don't do anything stupid."

FWIW, you're not seeing a lot of either those same type of stories/comments.

I am tempering my enthusiasm with all the early voting stories, and how it's possibly indicating a Biden landslide. Like Silver has also said, there will be a big Republican turnout the day of the election.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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walihorse
Member since Aug 03rd 2006
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Mon Oct-26-20 09:42 PM

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96. "1 week, I can't believe it, I'm exhausted. I'm still optimistic."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Seeing the number of people that have voted, has given me hope. I now worried about what kind of bullshit Trump, the GOP, and the Now 6-3 court could try and pull to fuck us.

If a fat guy falls in the woods and there is no one around to see it, do the trees laugh?

  

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luminous
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Mon Oct-26-20 09:54 PM

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97. "I’m worried about Trump not conceding..."
In response to Reply # 96


  

          

This TED Talk by Van Jones explains what could happen...

https://youtu.be/WZWRhLW7Y8w

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

If you need any help, don't. Hesitate to ask.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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99. "Why is Joe in Georgia and Kamala in Texas today?!?!"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I keep getting 2016 deja vu. They need to focus on the must haves (Midwest and Florida) and stop reaching for that fools gold.

Ironic that I posted this exactly 4 years ago.
https://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13079910&mesg_id=13079910&listing_type=search#13087501

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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100. "Pundits are hedging now"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I don't like that *chews banana*

Nate Silver talking about Biden will be the underdog if he loses Pennsylvania. And he's got a bunch of caveats that make Penn uncertain.

https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html

_______________________________________

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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102. "If it comes down to PA we are screwed. "
In response to Reply # 100


          

Western and Middle PA is Trump land.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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luminous
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104. "not good"
In response to Reply # 102
Sun Nov-01-20 06:26 PM by luminous

  

          

supreme court said they may revisit counting late ballots in PA AFTER election day.

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/28/21539169/supreme-court-pennsylvania-republican-party-samuel-alito-mail-in-ballots-boockvar

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

If you need any help, don't. Hesitate to ask.

  

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calij81
Member since Jan 17th 2007
13928 posts
Sun Nov-01-20 06:20 PM

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103. "Yeah I saw this as well and am getting worried now"
In response to Reply # 100


          

Pennsylvania really worries me, much more than Wisconsin or Michigan.

I think Biden is going to lose Florida, Ohio and Iowa but win Wisconsin and Michigan.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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106. "Sir, you're cherry-picking gloom & doom out of that article"
In response to Reply # 100


  

          

Mostly what he says is that the lead hasn't grown by more the 5%. He also says in that article that Biden would not only have to lose Pennsylanvia, NC, and AZ. And that, overall, Biden still has a 90% chance of winning.

On his site, he also says that the polling would have to be considerably more wrong than 2016 to project a Drumf win.

I get that everyone is nervous and nothing is over until the votes are counted. But that article that you cited isn't "hedging."

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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luminous
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105. "Repub pollster predicts Trump will win..."
In response to Reply # 0
Sun Nov-01-20 06:28 PM by luminous

  

          

https://youtu.be/0BOhRCeoMzM

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

If you need any help, don't. Hesitate to ask.

  

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lsymone
Member since Nov 03rd 2007
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Mon Nov-02-20 07:32 AM

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107. "if Biden/Harris loses Florida, its over."
In response to Reply # 0


          

take a message

  

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Vex_id
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108. "Not if they win Texas - which is actually in play"
In response to Reply # 107


          


-->

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Mon Nov-02-20 11:08 AM

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117. "I don’t see Texas in play. "
In response to Reply # 108


          

Hoping Biden isn’t wasting time in some of these states like Texas and GA.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Vex_id
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129. "RE: I don’t see Texas in play. "
In response to Reply # 117


          

>Hoping Biden isn’t wasting time in some of these states
>like Texas and GA.

Agreed on GA - but I think it would've been wise to spend time in Texas.

-->

  

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lsymone
Member since Nov 03rd 2007
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Mon Nov-02-20 03:45 PM

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130. "I hope you're right. "
In response to Reply # 108
Mon Nov-02-20 03:47 PM by lsymone

          

I'm from broward/dade county and fly out each month, and its overwhelmingly leading to Trump/Pence because of the amount of seniors/villagers, plus the conservative white cubans/dominicans/colombians and recently Harris made an affront against the Haitian community by not meeting them, and they are still salty about it but they'll vote democrat to prolong TPS. and the gays do vote red cause their in a higher tax bracket.


as for Penn, been to Pittsburgh recently, and they still blame the Dems for losing their mining jobs. Biden has been courting the blacks there, but them alone aint gonna help him win the presidency. them whites aint phuckin w/ Biden either.

if he loses these two states its a wrap. Iowa cant help even if they tried, Wisconsin and Michigan, these the two states with the recent covid spikes from Trump rallies.



it will have to take an act of God to help Biden/Harris win.

take a message

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Nov-02-20 04:52 PM

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133. "I hear you. If Biden doesn't carry Penn or Florida"
In response to Reply # 130


          

then that won't be a great sign at all - and will start to show nightmarish glimpses of what went down in 2016 all over again - but I think Biden inches out Trump in a lot of the Battleground states that Clinton lost (and in some instances (Wisconsin) - all but forfeited).

I don't see Biden's support being loud/showy - but more a silent march to the polls where people are voting *against* Trump as much as they are voting for Biden.

Thus far there's been nearly 70% of the turnout output of 2016 - and the exit polls seem to fav Dems - but there's so many Joker cards in the deck right now - not to mention fragile institutional certitude - that throws so many questions into the mix.

I think from a purely electoral politics analysis - Biden should win this fairly easily - but there's so much chaos thrown into the mix that it's tough to cut through the noise.


-->

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:04 AM

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110. "That’s not true at all. "
In response to Reply # 107


  

          

First, if he wins Pennsylvania, it doesn’t matter if he wins Florida or not.

Second, if he loses both Florida and Pennsylvania, he’d still win overall if he gets Arizona and North Carolina. Or one of those two states and Georgia.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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CIPHA
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Mon Nov-02-20 09:08 AM

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109. "I have zero confidence in political polling"
In response to Reply # 0


          

_____________________________________

Let me guess, I can have "good day" now, right?

  

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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:17 AM

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112. "^ less than zero."
In response to Reply # 109


          

----------------------------------------

"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

  

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luminous
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:13 AM

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111. "This is how Trump plans to steal the election..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

https://youtu.be/aeWBcSf4m_o

and kavanaugh already endorsed the plan...
https://youtu.be/suuRvvkV7PE?t=638

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

If you need any help, don't. Hesitate to ask.

  

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lsymone
Member since Nov 03rd 2007
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Mon Nov-02-20 02:59 PM

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127. "i aint never hated two people in all my life who dont play fair,"
In response to Reply # 111


          

yet a politician I know told me "if you aint cheating you aint trying".

Bitch McConnell and his Cum Dump have orchestrated the biggest diabolical political plan ever by using their benchmen, Kavanaugh and the mediocre "i hate gays" judge, Barrett to step in to rule the outcome if its anything like Bush/Gore in 2000.

the framers burnin in hell have got to be shaking their heads at these two clowns, "now we know we cheated by using the backs of slaves in the electoral college by sending TJ to the presidency, but you two have made it too obvious"

45 actually admitted that they have to play this "cheating" perfectly. tomorrow night this cheeto finna say he won, he know he won, his lawyers said he won while the rest of the country is still counting ballots.

take a message

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:22 AM

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113. "Did my last calculus and my prediction is: Biden 305; Trump 233"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I think Biden sweeps the Northeast - and takes Pennsylvania, Virginia & N.C. Trump takes Florida, Georgia & Texas (by a thin margin in TX). I think Biden carries Wisconsin, Michigan & Minnesota, which puts the nail in the coffin for Trump.

This is admittedly somewhat of an optimistic take - but I think there's sound reason to back up these claims with what's happening on the ground.

I do think Florida and Texas are potentially in play here as well for Biden - and Texas remains one of the more interesting battleground states to me with a lot of youth mobilization on the ground (which of course is being matched with egregious voter suppression). TX hasn't gone blue in a presidential since Carter.

-->

  

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will_5198
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:58 AM

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116. "I feel like Texas is still several cycles away"
In response to Reply # 113


          

but there will be a gap-closing shown that will have more and more resources invested into it, from both sides

--------

  

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calij81
Member since Jan 17th 2007
13928 posts
Mon Nov-02-20 12:55 PM

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118. "Texas is the Democrats cock tease state "
In response to Reply # 116


          

I don’t see it happening this time or even in 2024 but possibly in 2028 and I think it will fully go blue in 2032.

Texas is it is getting a lot of people from California and other blue states but the problem is most of those people are conservatives fleeing blue states.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Nov-02-20 02:48 PM

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125. "tx and az are 2 states where pollsters consistently underestimate dems."
In response to Reply # 118


          

especially tx.

rcp avg for 2016 was trump +12. he only won +9.

rcp avg for 2018 was cruz +7. he only won +2.

people forget how non-competitive pollsters had the tx senate race at the end because beto plateaued around a high single digit margin in their samples for the last few weeks. a lot of crowing about how dem voters were blowing money on the shiny object.

right now rcp avg is only trump +1.2. and on top of the usual dem undershoot among pollsters...we have an unanticipated level of record turnout and voter access expansion in dem heavy counties like harris (theres a reason tx repubs are fighting hard to get 100+k drive-thru votes invalidated).

a lot of the optimism is driven by dems doing exceedindly well in downballot races in previously repub areas too. district level polling can tell you trends that national/state polling might miss.

  

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Vex_id
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Mon Nov-02-20 02:57 PM

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126. "I think Texas very well should be in play for Dems right now"
In response to Reply # 116


          

and should've been a bigger focus for Dems in this presidential cycle. Kamala came to visit, but Joe never bothered to, and I think that's a tactical error. He should've been in Texas with Julian Castro, Deb Haaland, Tio Bernie & AOC rallying enthusiastically for that youth/Latino/a vote. He has weakness w/ that demographic, but it's also a demo he can (and should be) building significant inroads with.

Beto almost beat Ted Cruz, who was considered to be untouchable. That signals a very significant current being shifted in TX politics. Will Hurd was one of the most liberal Republicans in the House for many years - so Texas has shown that it will seat Dems and compete in races that previously were out of play.

-->

  

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soulfunk
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:46 AM

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114. "It’s sounding like PA is the key state...if Biden wins PA"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

then 45 would need huge upsets in a couple states that are currently looking very strong for Biden to win. If 45 wins PA, the electoral map gets pretty tight, with several paths to victory for either candidate...

  

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DJR
Member since Jan 01st 2005
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Mon Nov-02-20 05:33 PM

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134. "Between Pitt and Philly, it’s “Pennsyltucky”"
In response to Reply # 114


  

          

I can’t say I’m real confident in PA. But maybe.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Mon Nov-02-20 10:55 AM

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115. "im watching out for NC and Florida on election night"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

both states are expected to have results on election night and both are key.

if biden takes NC trumps chances become almost nothing. add florida and that should be a wrap.

unless there is a landslide, PA probably wont be called on election night. it would be great for biden to clinch it before PA is called.

if trump takes florida then he has life, even if biden takes NC. if trump takes both of those then oof.

i dont like how sure pundits seem to be about wisconsin and michigan, i hope theyre right.

part of me thinks we will see a biden landslide, over 400 EV. taking, iowa, ohio, az, ga and tx. kind of a return to pre 2000 elections.

that said, we cant ignore all the ways trump is trying to cheat and trying to invalidate votes that have already been cast.

  

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calij81
Member since Jan 17th 2007
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Mon Nov-02-20 12:59 PM

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119. "Biden isn’t winning Texas, Iowa, Georgia or Florida "
In response to Reply # 115


          

I think he wins Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and NC while also holding Nevada.

Pennsylvania worries me the most, not because he won’t win it but because he won’t win it outright tomorrow night and then it will go to the courts. Other than winning Pennsylvania tomorrow night, the next best case scenario for Biden in Pennsylvania tomorrow night is he is slightly ahead throughout the night or it is very close so they Trump can’t declare victory.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Mon Nov-02-20 01:06 PM

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120. "if i had to bet id agree with you"
In response to Reply # 119


  

          

i do think he could win one of Texas, Iowa, Georgia or Florida. the turn out just makes me think there is actually a chance he takes them all. dont expect it but i think it could happen.

if biden does take az, wi, mi, nc and nv thats probably enough to hold off the trump bs.

  

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CIPHA
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Mon Nov-02-20 03:56 PM

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131. "MAYBE Florida. (I wish I could type 'maybe' in a bigger font)"
In response to Reply # 119


          

But he definitely ain't winning the other 3. These people playing with us. They figured out that lying to pollsters worked in '16, so I think this year will be an even bigger disparity.

I'm still ...optimistic... Biden wins, but I don't believe GA and TX are in play at all.

_____________________________________

Let me guess, I can have "good day" now, right?

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Mon Nov-02-20 01:47 PM

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121. "im lightweight optimistic that biden will take florida."
In response to Reply # 115


          

even with all the tomfuckery factored in.

right now registered dems are leading registered repubs after early voting by about the same margin they were in 2016.

sounds bad tho since trump won fl in 2016 right (by a lil over 1 pt)?

but in 2016...only 6.5 million voted early. in 2020...about 8.5 million have already voted (about 95% of 2016 turnout). so biden presumably leads with the same margin but there are less votes left to turn the tide (even with higher turnout).

then you factor in that indie/npa voters in fl are trending biden this year (went trump in 2016). and there are gonna be repub crossover votes along with biden winning or tied with seniors (went heavily for trump in 2016).

its no coincidence that most of the turnout surges in fl (like the rest of the country) are happening in suburban counties that flipped blue in 2018 or have been quickly trending blue. like what happened in the dem primary with record turnout in some states pushed mostly by moderate/suburban voters coming out heavily for biden.

i think people consistently underestimate how many votes there are in the center...and how many of them are leaning towards biden.


  

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luminous
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Mon Nov-02-20 02:08 PM

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122. "i'm hoping all the new Puerto Rican voters in FL"
In response to Reply # 121


  

          

remember how Trump treated them after Hurrican Maria...
https://youtu.be/chwhR1SIGQE

--
Sometimes you have to look reality in the face and say 'No!'
-Ben (Reaper)

If you need any help, don't. Hesitate to ask.

  

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mista k5
Member since Feb 01st 2006
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Mon Nov-02-20 02:14 PM

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123. "i think there are plenty of clues to think biden could take these states"
In response to Reply # 121


  

          

if not all of them, some of them. him taking only one would be huge.

we have been let down before though. better to not expect it and be happily surprised.

  

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Marbles
Member since Oct 19th 2004
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Mon Nov-02-20 02:15 PM

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124. "I don't think Biden will get Florida or Texas..."
In response to Reply # 115


  

          


I don't have any kind of insider knowledge or anything but I keep hearing that Biden doesn't have the latino support they thought he might have. I think it'll be extremely close but if he doesn't have that latin support, it'll be tough for him to win. I hope that I'm wrong though.

It seems like Ohio is going to go red. Not as much of a battleground as it usually is.

And we're closing the gap in Texas but I don't know if it'll happen this election.

Still, I'm hopeful that Biden will scoop Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania and NC. The good news is that there's a path for Biden even without Florida & Texas.

  

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Trinity444
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Mon Nov-02-20 03:00 PM

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128. "i think something shady will happen..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
16347 posts
Mon Nov-02-20 04:29 PM

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132. "georgia looking promising."
In response to Reply # 0


          

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323374653583360006
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323375390220558339
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1323375916475699203
-----
239,822 African American voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia. That's 124% of the total 2016 turnout for African American seniors.

More Latino voters have already voted in Georgia (106,292) than voted in the entire 2016 election in the state (96,465).

Meanwhile, white non-college educated voters in Georgia lag behind their 2016 total vote by 439,513 votes.

  

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Amritsar
Member since Jan 18th 2008
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Mon Nov-02-20 05:46 PM

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135. "anxious but still pretty confident "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

god bless the work done by everyone leading up this moment

  

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RandomFact
Member since Dec 10th 2005
8710 posts
Mon Nov-02-20 09:04 PM

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136. "I think (hope) Nate Silver/538 has a decent read on this."
In response to Reply # 135


  

          

They're accounting for ALL polls. Both the highly-regarding and less regarded/more partisan.

As of today they still have Biden with a %88-%89 chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

In 2016 538 had Hilary around 70% while being vocal about how close the race actually was. So far in 2020 their data has remained relatively stable with no clear red flags, outside of some signs that point to lower Democratic turnout in Miami-Dade (and even that isn't a game changer).

  

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Mynoriti
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Mon Nov-02-20 09:38 PM

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137. "cautiously optimistic but.."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

trying to prepare myself for the worst.

i found a friend who's a 'shy trump voter' at least i didn't know because he never talks about or posts anything political, but a page popped up in my fb feed where he was in a comment section going full maga. so i guess he's not shy in the sense that he's posting stuff under his own name but i was kinda surprised he was that level deplorable.

that said i think the whole shy voter thing is gonna swing the other direction. i gotta believe there are people who are tired from all the chaos.

enough people anyway.

  

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Reeq
Member since Mar 11th 2013
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Tue Nov-03-20 09:11 AM

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138. "it says a lot that NOBODY thinks/says trump will win the most votes"
In response to Reply # 0


          

but we still dont know who the president will be.

  

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