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Subject: "What's your percentage guess regarding Trump becoming President?" Previous topic | Next topic
Case_One
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Fri Apr-29-16 01:49 PM

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"Poll question: What's your percentage guess regarding Trump becoming President?"
Fri Apr-29-16 01:59 PM by Case_One

          

I kept hearing all of these political Pundits talk about why Trump wouldn't make it out the gate. Then why Trump won't make it though the first debates. Then it was why Trump can't win any delegates. Now it's why Trump can't become presidential. Why Trump is looking like a fool and will fall flat.

But Guess What? This Crazy Bird is doing it his way and could possibly mess around an win it all. May listen. I don't want this DoofBall to win, but it's folks out here that believe in this Turd and are willing to take a face punch for him.

So yeah. President Trump could become a reality for the next 4 years

Poll result (43 votes)
10 % - 20 % (11 votes)Vote
21% - 40% (15 votes)Vote
41% - 60 % (11 votes)Vote
61% - 80 % (3 votes)Vote
81% - 100% (2 votes)Vote
Hillary for the Win Suckers! (1 votes)Vote

  

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
What do you think?
Apr 29th 2016
1
he has a legitimate chance. im a betting man & i wouldnt bet against him
Apr 29th 2016
2
Blue
Apr 29th 2016
3
Van Jones said Trump only needs 30% of the Black Vote to win
Apr 29th 2016
4
      only? 30% is a lot
Apr 29th 2016
5
      Yeah, this election hinges on the white middle class
Apr 29th 2016
8
      When I saw him make that comment it was in light of Trump
Apr 29th 2016
10
           Yup. A lot of Dems like me don't like Hillary. It's hard to vote for her
Apr 29th 2016
13
      30% is a pipe dream. They've barely broken 10% in the last 40 years
Apr 29th 2016
30
           But the 2000 election was close, and Bush won without us in 2004.
Apr 29th 2016
32
           I know black people that can't wait to vote for trump
May 04th 2016
58
20 percent chance...
Apr 29th 2016
6
This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 29th 2016
7
      exactly... for 6 months we have predicted his downfall
Apr 29th 2016
9
      actually, conventional wisdom says
Apr 29th 2016
21
      RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 29th 2016
23
           RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 30th 2016
42
                RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom
Apr 30th 2016
43
Green
Apr 29th 2016
11
People seem so afraid of it that they'd rather comfort themselves
Apr 29th 2016
12
If Bernie is the nominee? 10% chance
Apr 29th 2016
14
True!
Apr 29th 2016
15
^ Expects the election to be held in Oregon.
May 03rd 2016
53
      ^forgets he is just gonna vote for the Democrat anyway^
May 04th 2016
62
CERO POR CIENTO
Apr 29th 2016
16
20 to 25%
Apr 29th 2016
17
Never underestimate the blind anger of Americans
Apr 29th 2016
18
Zero
Apr 29th 2016
19
if it winds up Trump v Hil
Apr 29th 2016
20
he'll still win in deep red states like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas...
Apr 29th 2016
22
i don't see it
Apr 29th 2016
26
      Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states
Apr 30th 2016
40
           RE: Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states
Apr 30th 2016
41
Yeah Im not sure about that.
Apr 29th 2016
27
Wanna bet?
Apr 30th 2016
39
What Trump does in a primary....
Apr 29th 2016
24
Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones.
Apr 29th 2016
34
      RE: Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones.
Apr 30th 2016
36
           Thanks for all your replies Murph.
Apr 30th 2016
37
                RE: Thanks for all your replies Murph.
Apr 30th 2016
38
I've been saying from the start not to underestimate him. I say 50/50.
Apr 29th 2016
25
about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack
Apr 29th 2016
28
RE: about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack
Apr 29th 2016
29
Yah.
Apr 29th 2016
31
0%. im just here for the spectacle and he's bringing it.
Apr 29th 2016
33
is less than zero a option
Apr 29th 2016
35
Trump is steam rolling people with common sense.
May 03rd 2016
44
nah, it isn't common sense
May 03rd 2016
45
The man is a snake oil salesman. He's roping people in with
May 03rd 2016
46
      A thinking person can see through this BS and emotional pandering
May 03rd 2016
47
           He is just saying what voters scream when they are watching the news
May 03rd 2016
50
                Yeah this whole HilTrump race is a nightmare.
May 03rd 2016
54
Not common sense. Simplistic explanations that sound right
May 03rd 2016
48
      Maybe we have a different standard for common sense
May 03rd 2016
49
      well its common sense to deliver his message this way
May 03rd 2016
51
           That's my point. He's winning and rolling over people with common sense
May 03rd 2016
52
                Is he winning over people with common sense or he has people
May 05th 2016
68
      That's precisely how I'd define common sense.
May 03rd 2016
56
Depends A LOT on how the race goes, but at this stage I'd say green.
May 03rd 2016
55
If Trump chooses Kasich as his VP his chances will be really good.
May 04th 2016
57
Less than zero now
May 04th 2016
59
RE: Less than zero now
May 04th 2016
60
      RE: Less than zero now
May 04th 2016
61
           ^^^ CORRECT ANSWER ^^^^^
May 05th 2016
71
I'm willing to take bets on if he makes it through the convention...
May 04th 2016
63
The News Say Only 30% Of The Voters Last Two Presidental Election
May 04th 2016
64
90%
May 04th 2016
65
Trump will win by a landslide.
May 04th 2016
66
those saying trump has no chance are greatly underestimating
May 05th 2016
67
Univision and Telemundo are yelling Trump is the antichrist 24/7
May 05th 2016
69
Trump is like that Chimpanzee with the AK47 - Unpredictable & Dagerous
May 05th 2016
70
This mutherfucka isn't trying to win this: "I love Hispanics!"
May 05th 2016
72
At this point, I can't even get mad at him anymore.
May 05th 2016
73
but check out what was underneath his taco salad
May 05th 2016
75
Low 20s, I guess, seems arbitrary but he has a chance, sure
May 05th 2016
74

Case_One
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Fri Apr-29-16 01:55 PM

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1. "What do you think?"
In response to Reply # 0


          


.
.
.

  

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BigJazz
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Fri Apr-29-16 01:55 PM

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2. "he has a legitimate chance. im a betting man & i wouldnt bet against him"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

straight up.



***
I ain't lyin. This shit i'm making up is true...

  

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Marbles
Member since Oct 19th 2004
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Fri Apr-29-16 01:57 PM

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3. "Blue"
In response to Reply # 0
Fri Apr-29-16 01:57 PM by Marbles

  

          

But then I was certain that he wouldn't get the GOP nomination in the first place. *shrug* Still, primaries & caucuses are just a glimpse into a small portion of Republican voters.

I'd say he's got a 25% chance of beating the eventual Democratic nominee (looking like Clinton)

  

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Case_One
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Fri Apr-29-16 02:00 PM

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4. "Van Jones said Trump only needs 30% of the Black Vote to win"
In response to Reply # 3
Fri Apr-29-16 02:00 PM by Case_One

          

.
.
.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Fri Apr-29-16 02:04 PM

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5. "only? 30% is a lot"
In response to Reply # 4
Fri Apr-29-16 02:06 PM by legsdiamond

          

but I don't think he needs that many.

I think the biggest concern is how many Black voters DONT show up to vote because it was all about Obama.

Plus I think if the GOP unifies plus all these new idiots show up we could be in for a fight in a few swing states.

everyone keeps talking about Trump needing us and Latinos but I think it comes down to how many GOP establishment voters stay home.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Marbles
Member since Oct 19th 2004
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Fri Apr-29-16 02:31 PM

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8. "Yeah, this election hinges on the white middle class"
In response to Reply # 5


  

          


Trump probably won't get anywhere near enough voters of color for it to matter.

I think it's the middle class white voters that are the focus right now. Are they angry enough to join Trump and try to play John Wayne? Or are they as unnerved by him as a lot of other people are, enough to vote for Clinton (whom a lot of folks hate)?

  

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Teknontheou
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Fri Apr-29-16 02:54 PM

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10. "When I saw him make that comment it was in light of Trump "
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

having higher favorability poll numbers among Blacks than any Republican candidate in a long time. Something like 20+% now, I think. IF that's true, that will be a problem for Hillary, plus people staying home on the Democratic side.

  

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Case_One
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:12 PM

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13. "Yup. A lot of Dems like me don't like Hillary. It's hard to vote for her"
In response to Reply # 10


          

But I can't let my feelings get in the way of keeping Trump out of the White House.
.
.
.

  

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Cocobrotha2
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Fri Apr-29-16 07:53 PM

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30. "30% is a pipe dream. They've barely broken 10% in the last 40 years"
In response to Reply # 4


          

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/presidential-elections/2012-presidential-election/

Go to the page for each year and click on Group Voting.

<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->
<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->

  

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Teknontheou
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Fri Apr-29-16 08:12 PM

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32. "But the 2000 election was close, and Bush won without us in 2004."
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

Barry's run was historic and that turnout won't be duplicated this time. So if Trump can get to even 15% of the Black vote, that's going to be a problem.

  

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sweet ruffian
Member since Jul 11th 2003
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Wed May-04-16 04:52 PM

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58. "I know black people that can't wait to vote for trump"
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

All 40-60 year old, men and women, in Southern California

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Fri Apr-29-16 02:05 PM

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6. "20 percent chance..."
In response to Reply # 0
Fri Apr-29-16 02:06 PM by murph71

          


It's all in the demographics.....Trump would have to get more white people to vote for him than Reagan (the highest ever percentage, BTW...)....

And that ain't gonna happen....

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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Ted Gee Seal
Member since Apr 18th 2007
10091 posts
Fri Apr-29-16 02:28 PM

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7. "This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom"
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

>
>It's all in the demographics.....Trump would have to get more
>white people to vote for him than Reagan (the highest ever
>percentage, BTW...)....
>
>And that ain't gonna happen....

I'm sure I've read "that ain't gonna happen" or similar so many times only to watch Trump keep marching on and Bernie Sanders hang on in the race. Trump seems to be able to change message at will and doesn't pay the price for lying or contradiction.

I want to believe you. I really do, but these primaries have had a way of sowing doubt.

Just IMO though.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79349 posts
Fri Apr-29-16 02:49 PM

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9. "exactly... for 6 months we have predicted his downfall"
In response to Reply # 7


          

and he keeps getting stronger and stronger.

Now I definitely don't think he will get the minority voting % he needs but I could see Trump getting as many whypeeple as Reagan.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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fontgangsta
Member since Sep 04th 2005
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:48 PM

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21. "actually, conventional wisdom says"
In response to Reply # 7


  

          

that the democrats don't have a chance in hell of keeping the white house
the 2 term incumbent party swing is nearly impossible to overcome
but that doesn't account for motherfucking TRUMP as the nominee
if they take it away from him at the convention, and give it to any run of the mill "politician" (cruz included), it will be a razor tight race
but trump will get demolished in a general election

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Fri Apr-29-16 04:27 PM

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23. "RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom"
In response to Reply # 7
Fri Apr-29-16 04:57 PM by murph71

          

>>
>>It's all in the demographics.....Trump would have to get
>more
>>white people to vote for him than Reagan (the highest ever
>>percentage, BTW...)....
>>
>>And that ain't gonna happen....
>
>I'm sure I've read "that ain't gonna happen" or similar so
>many times only to watch Trump keep marching on and Bernie
>Sanders hang on in the race. Trump seems to be able to change
>message at will and doesn't pay the price for lying or
>contradiction.
>
>I want to believe you. I really do, but these primaries have
>had a way of sowing doubt.


What Trump does in a Republican primary is not at all shocking if u follow the bread crumbs....The Repugs made their own bed...

Trump is winning because:

--White working class feel like they have been left out of the economic picture...

--The base of the Republican Party has been lied too by their own people (WE WILL KILL OBAMACARE!!!!! OBAMA IS THE DEVIL WE WILL LOOK OUT FOR YOUR INTEREST!!!!)

--Companies shipping jobs overseas...KILLING the Middle Class...

But in a general election u need more than mad white folks...And that's the issue when it comes to the Republican party overall...The demographics are KILLING them...

In order to win Trump has to get 7 out of 10 pr white men to vote for him, which is damn near impossible...He also needs to get more votes than Romney did with minorities: blacks, Latinos, Asians....And WOMEN....

Trump beating Cruz and Kasich with the female or Latino vote ain;t anything to celebrate...Not when u r polling that 8 out of 10 Latinos have an unfavorable view of Trump...

Hillary Clinton is VERY lucky.....

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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Ted Gee Seal
Member since Apr 18th 2007
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Sat Apr-30-16 03:14 PM

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42. "RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom"
In response to Reply # 23


  

          


>
>
>What Trump does in a Republican primary is not at all shocking
>if u follow the bread crumbs....The Repugs made their own
>bed...
>
>Trump is winning because:
>
>--White working class feel like they have been left out of the
>economic picture...
>
>--The base of the Republican Party has been lied too by their
>own people (WE WILL KILL OBAMACARE!!!!! OBAMA IS THE DEVIL WE
>WILL LOOK OUT FOR YOUR INTEREST!!!!)
>
>--Companies shipping jobs overseas...KILLING the Middle
>Class...
>
>But in a general election u need more than mad white
>folks...And that's the issue when it comes to the Republican
>party overall...The demographics are KILLING them...
>
>In order to win Trump has to get 7 out of 10 pr white men to
>vote for him, which is damn near impossible...He also needs to
>get more votes than Romney did with minorities: blacks,
>Latinos, Asians....And WOMEN....
>
>Trump beating Cruz and Kasich with the female or Latino vote
>ain;t anything to celebrate...Not when u r polling that 8 out
>of 10 Latinos have an unfavorable view of Trump...
>
>Hillary Clinton is VERY lucky.....

But... what if he just changes his message? The media have been really poor at pointing out how much of a liar he is and nailing him when he flip flops. Folks are saying he won't be able to tack to the middle, but what he does and those people are wrong about how effectively he can do that?

Just IMO though.

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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43. "RE: This race feels like its theme is confounding conventional wisdom"
In response to Reply # 42


          


>>Hillary Clinton is VERY lucky.....
>
>But... what if he just changes his message? The media have
>been really poor at pointing out how much of a liar he is and
>nailing him when he flip flops. Folks are saying he won't be
>able to tack to the middle, but what he does and those people
>are wrong about how effectively he can do that?


Trump doesn't know how to change his message...He can't help himself....That's why all the chaos has been taking place inside his own campaign. The guy that was brought in to make Trump become more Presidential has now taken a back seat to that Cory Lewindoski (sp) dude; the same moron who became a front page story after manhandling a conservative female reporter...He was supposed to be swept under the rug...But now Cory is back running things and u can see his fingerprints all over Trump's last speech (back to the name calling and straight up bullshitting...)

Again, none of this means that Clinton's campaign should be overtly cocky...Trump is dangerous because he will do and say ANYTHING to win....But he can't tack on to the middle because there's too much that has been said already during THIS campaign....
In a general Trump won't be able to get away with his lying...Because now it's not just about getting angry white folks with an ax to grind against THEIR Republican party to vote for u....Now Trump has to play to a general audience...Clinton just needs to play her game and she will be alright...

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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flipnile
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:06 PM

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11. "Green"
In response to Reply # 0


          

I think folks will be surprised.

  

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Teknontheou
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12. "People seem so afraid of it that they'd rather comfort themselves"
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

by insisting it can't happen, rather than take it very seriously and fight to prevent him from winning.

  

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Mr. ManC
Member since Jan 26th 2009
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:14 PM

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14. "If Bernie is the nominee? 10% chance"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

If Hillary is the nominee? Legit 30-50% chance

________________________________________________
R.I.P. Soulgyal <3
SUPA NERD LLC.
Knowledge Meets Nature
Musica Negra
#13irteen

  

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Case_One
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:16 PM

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15. "True!"
In response to Reply # 14


          


.
.
.

  

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stravinskian
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Tue May-03-16 09:49 AM

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53. "^ Expects the election to be held in Oregon."
In response to Reply # 14


          

  

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Mr. ManC
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62. "^forgets he is just gonna vote for the Democrat anyway^"
In response to Reply # 53


  

          

________________________________________________
R.I.P. Soulgyal <3
SUPA NERD LLC.
Knowledge Meets Nature
Musica Negra
#13irteen

  

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LAbeathustla
Member since Jan 24th 2004
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:16 PM

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16. "CERO POR CIENTO"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

¿Me sientes?

------------------------------------
2019 CABG Survivor

2016 OK Survivor Champion

be about it or be without it

RIP GOATs

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:19 PM

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17. "20 to 25%"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Won't get enough women's votes. Won't get enough Hispanic votes. White males would have to vote for him at a staggering percentage.

Plus, we really haven't seen how ugly the campaign is going to get for him. The other GOP candidates spent months treating him with kid gloves because they didn't want to piss off his voter base. And when they did go after him, it was stuff that he said during the GOP campaign trail. Hillary is going to have no such problem. It is going to get real ugly real quick, re-dredging up all sorts of foul shit he's said over the years.

I will say HRC needs to get cracking with her "Get Out to Vote" drives. That will all definitely help.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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BigReg
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18. "Never underestimate the blind anger of Americans"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

1/3 chance imho.

If he wins I see it getting worse; dude isn't as nuts as he lets on and when he lets those angry americans down by not shooting darkies on sight I really fear what's going to happen next.

  

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wluv
Member since Jan 27th 2003
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:30 PM

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19. "Zero"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

He cant build enough of a coalition to win nationally hence the all out STOP TRUMP campaign thats been launched by the GOP. The GOP is just trying to protect the down ticket congressional candidates at this point. But with only 11 percent support of hispanic, he wont win the swing states McCain or Romney won in their elections. He wont even get the customer 8 percent black vote that all GOP presidents get. The electoral map on election night will be even more lopsided for Hillary than it was for Obama.

There will be no President Trump.

  

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fontgangsta
Member since Sep 04th 2005
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Fri Apr-29-16 03:39 PM

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20. "if it winds up Trump v Hil"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

dude isn't going to win a single state
mark my words
the campaign against him is gonna be bananas, and he's put out soooo much stuff to use against him in attack ads
general electorate aint the primary electorate
and hil ain't these Republican bozos who've been trying to "stop trump"
it aint gonna be pretty.

  

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wluv
Member since Jan 27th 2003
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Fri Apr-29-16 04:22 PM

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22. "he'll still win in deep red states like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas..."
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

States Dem Presidents dont win in landslide victory.

But those swing states like North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado he wont win.

  

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fontgangsta
Member since Sep 04th 2005
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26. "i don't see it"
In response to Reply # 22


  

          

>he'll still win in deep red states like Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kansas and such

i could be wrong, and we won't know til we know
but see the article below for ex - Latinos could take him out in texas. African Americans could take him out in Alabama.
i wouldn't blame anyone for being skeptical of my prediction, but i stick by it til we're knee deep in the general and have more data to go on.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Sat Apr-30-16 09:50 AM

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40. "Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states"
In response to Reply # 26


          

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Sat Apr-30-16 11:27 AM

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41. "RE: Nah, there are a lot of white conservatives in those southern states"
In response to Reply # 40


          





^^^^^^^^^^^

Yep...Those states will take a while to be flipped....

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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DavidHasselhoff
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27. "Yeah Im not sure about that."
In response to Reply # 20


          

  

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RaFromQueens
Member since Apr 18th 2006
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Sat Apr-30-16 09:36 AM

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39. "Wanna bet?"
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

---
"People that need positivity around them all the time are weak individuals in my book" - @lilduval

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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24. "What Trump does in a primary...."
In response to Reply # 0
Fri Apr-29-16 04:47 PM by murph71

          


...should not be dismissed...Trump is showing true power...He's showing the power to DESTROY the REPUBLICAN Party as we know it...That about it....

What Trump does in a primary where the party he is running under is damn near 90 percent WHITE does not translate to a general election...That's the issue...It's not about Trump beating expectations in a Republican Primary...It's that Trump's issues have less to do with his ability to turn on angry white folks (that's easy...) and more to do with EVERYONE ELSE LITERALLY HATING HIM....lol

Below is just an example...Latino voting registration has literally shot up...Y'all wanna guess why? It's all about demographics, which don't really matter in a primary....Read on...


---------------


The Hill
Hispanic voter registration spikes

By Rafael Bernal - 04/27/16 01:14 PM EDT
Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are also expected to vote against Trump if he is the Republican nominee, something that appears much more likely after the front-runner’s sweeping primary victories Tuesday in five East Coast states.

A whopping 80 percent of respondents in a poll of registered Hispanic voters in Colorado and Nevada said Trump's views on immigration made them less likely to vote for Republicans in November. In Florida, that number was 68 percent.

The figures are sparking confident tones from Democrats, who think their party’s nominee will benefit from a huge advantage in the fall not only in the presidential race but also in battles for the House and Senate.

Because of the contrast between the GOP and Democratic fields, “we feel absolutely confident about our chances of electing Democrats up and down the ballot in November,” said Walter Garcia, western regional communication director for the Democratic National Committee.

Many of the newly registered Hispanic voters are in California and Texas, relatively safe states for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

In fact, because so many Hispanic voters live in those states, the effect of the rising registration numbers will be somewhat undercut, according to Vargas.

Still, rising registration rates among Hispanics in Colorado, Florida and Nevada could make it easier for the Democratic candidate to retain those swing states. Even Arizona could be in play, say some poll watchers.

Registration is a game-changer with Hispanic voters.

Only about 48 percent of eligible Hispanics vote, but nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanics go to the ballot box.

Democrats have already targeted Colorado, Florida and Nevada with at least $15 million for Hispanic outreach, according to Vargas.

In Colorado, where 15 percent of eligible voters are Hispanic, the demographic has already shown its ability to flip elections.

The 2016 Colorado Democratic caucuses were one of the first big tests for presidential candidate Bernie Sanders against rival Hillary Clinton. With nearly 30,000 newly registered voters and strong support from Hispanic millennials, Sanders beat Clinton by more than 20,000 votes.

President Obama won 51.5 percent of the vote in Colorado in 2012, compared to 46 percent for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. In Nevada, Obama won 52 percent of the vote to Romney’s 46 percent.

Arizona has been a relatively safe state for Republicans in recent presidential elections, but Democrats have long wondered if they could make it competitive.

Romney won 53.5 percent of the vote there in 2012, Obama 44.5 percent.

David Lublin, professor of government at American University, describes Arizona as “the sort of state that if Clinton starts moving into landslide or big-win territory, she could win.”

Yet the real danger for Republicans could be down the ballot — particularly in the battle for the Senate, where longtime Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) could be a target.

Obama won 74 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, according to exit polls by NBC.

A Democrat in 2016 would likely depend on larger Hispanic turnout and a larger share of the white vote to win the state.

Romney hurt himself with Hispanic voters in 2012 by suggesting that undocumented workers self-deport. He moved to the right on immigration and border security in the primary and was relatively quiet on the issue in the general election.

Both parties think Trump’s rhetoric, which has included insults directed at Mexicans and a plan to build a wall on the border and make Mexico pay for it, could be more difficult to overcome in a general election.

Trump has "motivated Latino voters," said Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.)

Immigration was shown by an America's Voice/Latino Decisions poll to be the primary issue driving Hispanics away from Republican candidates in 2016.

However, Hispanic voters nationally said the most important issue facing the country is the economy.

Ruth Guerra, Republican National Committee director of Hispanic media, gives little credence to the polls: “Not only is Latino Decisions on Hillary Clinton’s payroll, they have proven to be inaccurate time and again, so we will take their results in context.”

She also criticized Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, on immigration issues, accusing her of thinking Hispanics would have “amnesia.”

She noted that Clinton was opposed to giving drivers licenses to undocumented workers as a senator from New York but has now reversed her position.

“Clinton’s flip flops and hypocrisy on immigration are a mile long because she will tell voters anything to win an election,” Guerra said.

A win by a Democrat presidential candidate in Florida, Colorado and Nevada would make it very difficult for a GOP candidate to reach 270 electoral votes and win the White House.

In fact, Democrats could actually lose the swing state of Ohio but win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and get to 270 — simply by holding other states that have voted for the Democratic nominee in presidential elections for the last six cycles.

Jon Ralston, a veteran Nevada political journalist who is not surprised by the numbers, said, “The real problem is that Trump, and, to a lesser degree, Cruz, will drive up Hispanic turnout against Republicans."

He said the only path for the GOP nominee to the White House in such a situation would be to win more white votes.

Ralston described this as “a path we have never seen before. Huge increase in white vote.”

link: http://thehill.com/latino/277824-hispanics-in-swing-states-create-daunting-electoral-map-for-gop

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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denny
Member since Apr 11th 2008
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Fri Apr-29-16 10:05 PM

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34. "Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones."
In response to Reply # 24


          

But he's been addressing the exact points we've been debating for months now. Though I still think you're underestimating what Trump can possibly do with minority votes.....I still can't make any solid contention one way or the other.

But I saw Rob Ford inexplicably win the black and minority vote in Toronto while being a racist. So for me....I won't be as shocked as you if it he at least does ENOUGH with minorities to win. For what it's worth....Van Jones seems to concur with that.

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Sat Apr-30-16 01:32 AM

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36. "RE: Not sure if you've been listening to Van Jones."
In response to Reply # 34
Sat Apr-30-16 01:52 AM by murph71

          

Van Jones is being Van Jones...lol...Dude has always been a pessimist...And there's nothing wrong with that...We need pessimists to keep us level headed and our eyes on the prize...(also, Trump will need a lot more to happen than to rely on black folks to vote for him at 30 percent as Van keeps putting it out there...)

Listen...All u have to do is check the demographics....That's it...

The number that jumps out at anyone that understands the value of women (not primary female voters; but the real world of voters...) is this:

Mitt Romney, who lost to Obama by 5 million, BEAT OBAMA WITH MARRIED WOMEN by 53 percent to 46 percent...At this point the polls have an average of 70 percent of married women having an unfavorable view of Trump, which is some record-breaking shit...We talking new territory...Even Hillary's numbers with white men are not that high...Again, this is all taken into account BEFORE u realize that Trump is under water with damn near every other minority out there....

I get it Denny...You've seen some crazy shit in Canada go down politically with Ford and the like...But don't get it twisted...I'm not implying that Clinton should just do backflips and ACT like its a cakewalk against Trump...Dude has no core. He will say ANYTHING...U have to treat him seriously....But treat him seriously while knowing that the numbers are on your side...

But this is the stat that REALLY jumps out: "In a hypothetical November match-up between Trump and Clinton, among registered women voters, Clinton leads Trump 58 - 31 percent, according to a *CBS News national poll this month. In comparison, 42 percent of men would cast their ballots for Clinton versus 50 percent that would support Trump."....

Clinton should take Trump seriously because that's what u do when it comes to politics...But nah, dog...Trump ain't winning a general.....

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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denny
Member since Apr 11th 2008
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Sat Apr-30-16 02:42 AM

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37. "Thanks for all your replies Murph."
In response to Reply # 36
Sat Apr-30-16 02:45 AM by denny

          

I got the privilege to see you IRL the other day with the news clip about Prince. I was happy to see what you looked like. Maybe that sounds weird? Thanks for alot more too....cause i really appreciate having dialogue with you. I've read many of your columns and look up to you in that regard.\

Yes...Van Jones and other pundits NEED this Trump v Clinton to be a thing so they can have jobs too. I get that. But the new world of social media opens Trump's lane in my angst-ridden worries.

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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38. "RE: Thanks for all your replies Murph."
In response to Reply # 37


          

>I got the privilege to see you IRL the other day with the
>news clip about Prince. I was happy to see what you looked
>like. Maybe that sounds weird? Thanks for alot more
>too....cause i really appreciate having dialogue with you.
>I've read many of your columns and look up to you in that
>regard.\
>
>Yes...Van Jones and other pundits NEED this Trump v Clinton to
>be a thing so they can have jobs too. I get that. But the
>new world of social media opens Trump's lane in my
>angst-ridden worries.

Thanks for the kind words, dog...Really means a lot...

As for Van, dude is a straight shooter...He doesn't bullshit...So I don't think it has anything to do with him needing Trump to stay a viable candidate in order to keep a job...

That's just Van's make-up...Dude has always been on some ANYTHING THAT CAN GO WRONG WILL PROBABLY GO WRONG...

I get it...And like I said, Clinton should not approach Trump like he's cooked food...Dude is a loose cannon....THAT aspect of Trump should not be underestimated...But the demographics r the demographics...It's def. going to be interesting...

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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DavidHasselhoff
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25. "I've been saying from the start not to underestimate him. I say 50/50."
In response to Reply # 0


          

  

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Mynoriti
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Fri Apr-29-16 04:55 PM

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28. "about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

while hillary is more of an actual warhawk, and has a much deeper knowledge of foreign policy, Trump is better at projecting that "no one fucks with the USA" image, and that cowboy shit will win out every time

Trump is an effective con-artist, and is not bound to any ideology. He can be anyone he wants. Hillary is pretty much tethered to the dem platform, for better or worse.

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Fri Apr-29-16 05:04 PM

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29. "RE: about 20. maybe 45 with a terrorist attack"
In response to Reply # 28


          

>while hillary is more of an actual warhawk, and has a much
>deeper knowledge of foreign policy, Trump is better at
>projecting that "no one fucks with the USA" image, and that
>cowboy shit will win out every time
>
>Trump is an effective con-artist, and is not bound to any
>ideology. He can be anyone he wants. Hillary is pretty much
>tethered to the dem platform, for better or worse.


U need votes, dog...Don't care how much a con artist u r...If u pissing off Latinos, blacks, the youth AND women, that's a recipe for a general election disaster...

U r right about one thing though Trump could def. make it closer with a terrorist attack on OUR SHORES....But yeah...Hard to pull off that general election con job when 7 out of 10 women r giving u the side eye...

I mean, this fool just said the only reason Clinton is doing well is because she's a woman and that if she were a man she wouldn't get 5 percent of the vote.....That shit def. works in a Republican primary where white men make up the bulk of the base...but in the general?

lol...Nah...

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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denny
Member since Apr 11th 2008
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Fri Apr-29-16 07:55 PM

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31. "Yah."
In response to Reply # 28


          

Even something relatively small like another San Bernadino could tip the scales. I think he could win it without too....but a terrorist event could hammer it home.

  

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BrooklynWHAT
Member since Jun 15th 2007
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Fri Apr-29-16 09:16 PM

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33. "0%. im just here for the spectacle and he's bringing it."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

<--- Big Baller World Order

  

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justin_scott
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Fri Apr-29-16 10:56 PM

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35. "is less than zero a option"
In response to Reply # 0


          

.

************************************************************

  

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Case_One
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44. "Trump is steam rolling people with common sense. "
In response to Reply # 0


          


.
.
.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Tue May-03-16 09:12 AM

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45. "nah, it isn't common sense"
In response to Reply # 44


          

dude is tapping into the anger of the white voter AND making sure he communicates at a 6th grade level.

"we're gonna build a wall and it's gonna be great...just got 10 ft higher"

that isn't common sense, that's called lying.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Lardlad95
Member since Jul 31st 2002
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Tue May-03-16 09:17 AM

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46. "The man is a snake oil salesman. He's roping people in with"
In response to Reply # 45


  

          

simple but passionate rhetoric that has little to no actual substance to it.

He's tapping into genuine anger by telling people what they want to hear, but that doesn't mean he's right.

It's actually kind of scary and why the fascist allusions, while overblown, are close enough to the mark to be of great concern to anyone who actually cares about this country.

"All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts..." -The Bard

  

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Case_One
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Tue May-03-16 09:20 AM

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47. "A thinking person can see through this BS and emotional pandering "
In response to Reply # 46


          

>simple but passionate rhetoric that has little to no actual
>substance to it.
>
>He's tapping into genuine anger by telling people what they
>want to hear, but that doesn't mean he's right.
>
>It's actually kind of scary and why the fascist allusions,
>while overblown, are close enough to the mark to be of great
>concern to anyone who actually cares about this country.
>
>"All the world's a stage,
>And all the men and women merely players:
>They have their exits and their entrances;
>And one man in his time plays many parts..." -The Bard


.
.
.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
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Tue May-03-16 09:33 AM

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50. "He is just saying what voters scream when they are watching the news"
In response to Reply # 47


          

it's awesome and scary to watch.

What scares me is Hillary will go all in depth while Trump throws out that basic message.

only thing working for Hillary is I still believe Trump is a plant. Dude is going to piss off every voting block but the angry white male. It's like he doesn't want to win the GE with his comments but maybe he pivots once he locks the nom up. Its still prolly too late.

Just comes down to demographics. Can he win Ohio, Florida, NC and Wisc with just the working blue collar white votes? of so, it could be close.

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Case_One
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Tue May-03-16 09:49 AM

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54. "Yeah this whole HilTrump race is a nightmare."
In response to Reply # 50


          

We are Screwed as a nation.
.
.
.

  

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Buddy_Gilapagos
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Tue May-03-16 09:26 AM

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48. "Not common sense. Simplistic explanations that sound right"
In response to Reply # 44


  

          

if you aren't versed in the issues.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

  

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Case_One
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Tue May-03-16 09:30 AM

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49. "Maybe we have a different standard for common sense"
In response to Reply # 48


          

Somethings requires regular discernment, general wisdom, and plain walking around sense.

  

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legsdiamond
Member since May 05th 2011
79349 posts
Tue May-03-16 09:35 AM

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51. "well its common sense to deliver his message this way"
In response to Reply # 49


          

but the message damn sure doesn't sound like common sense

****************
TBH the fact that you're even a mod here fits squarely within Jag's narrative of OK-sanctioned aggression, bullying, and toxicity. *shrug*

  

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Case_One
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Tue May-03-16 09:44 AM

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52. "That's my point. He's winning and rolling over people with common sense"
In response to Reply # 51


          

Meaning that Thinking is not required, common sense is abandoned and these yahoos are eating his loud BS up because they have abandoned their brains and have given in to primal emotions.


.
.
.

  

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Buddy_Gilapagos
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68. "Is he winning over people with common sense or he has people"
In response to Reply # 52


  

          

abandoning common sense ?




**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Tue May-03-16 09:57 AM

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56. "That's precisely how I'd define common sense."
In response to Reply # 48


          


But that's a separate discussion.

  

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stravinskian
Member since Feb 24th 2003
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Tue May-03-16 09:54 AM

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55. "Depends A LOT on how the race goes, but at this stage I'd say green."
In response to Reply # 0


          

  

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Binladen
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Wed May-04-16 04:18 PM

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57. "If Trump chooses Kasich as his VP his chances will be really good. "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

  

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wluv
Member since Jan 27th 2003
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Wed May-04-16 04:53 PM

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59. "Less than zero now"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

He has NO SHOT.

The coalition nor the strong enough platform just isn't there for him to win.

He will get exposed like a cheapsuit. EVERYTHING he says from now on and all the previous soundbites are fair game now. His arrogance ass cant keep his mouth shut long enough to sound like a statesman or a serious enough to win over the majority of Americans.

Madame Clinton it will be.

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Wed May-04-16 04:59 PM

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60. "RE: Less than zero now"
In response to Reply # 59


          



Basically....Trump def. is a wild card....He doesn't play by the rules so Hill-Dog should still keep one eye open....

But Trump has to put together that fractured Republican party...He's still not a consensus pick...Even when u poll him within Republican voters more than half r giving him the side-eye....

Gonna be interesting...

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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wluv
Member since Jan 27th 2003
4362 posts
Wed May-04-16 05:19 PM

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61. "RE: Less than zero now"
In response to Reply # 60


  

          

>
>
>Basically....Trump def. is a wild card....He doesn't play by
>the rules so Hill-Dog should still keep one eye open....

His running off at the mouth will only galvanize Dems more to come out and vote. And all the Repubs he trolled like McCain, Jeb, Cruz, and even Megyn Kelly have no reason to help his ass now. McCain's aide already said he's voting for Clinton
>
>But Trump has to put together that fractured Republican
>party...He's still not a consensus pick...Even when u poll him
>within Republican voters more than half r giving him the
>side-eye....
>
which mean independents will stay away. All the kings horses and all the kings men could put that fractured Party back together again. A fracture that he caused.
>Gonna be interesting...
>
its gonna be a bloodbath son and Dem landslide. Just sit back and enjoy the journey

  

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LAbeathustla
Member since Jan 24th 2004
33858 posts
Thu May-05-16 11:13 AM

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71. "^^^ CORRECT ANSWER ^^^^^"
In response to Reply # 61


  

          

it wont even be romney close

------------------------------------
2019 CABG Survivor

2016 OK Survivor Champion

be about it or be without it

RIP GOATs

  

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CRichMonkey
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Wed May-04-16 05:53 PM

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63. "I'm willing to take bets on if he makes it through the convention..."
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I can see him flaming out and the party deciding to take the L, nominate a usurper and cede the election to Clinton that way.


my avy: Deep in your heart, you know he's right: http://coreyrichardsonneedsajob.com/
my hustle: http://SupaSoulSounds.com

*RIP: John T. "220v" Richardson, Blessing Benson, and Dilla*

  

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Dj Joey Joe
Member since Sep 01st 2007
13770 posts
Wed May-04-16 06:28 PM

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64. "The News Say Only 30% Of The Voters Last Two Presidental Election"
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...actually voted during the primaries, so it's weird that only 30% of the people who usually vote, and voted Obama in, decided to not vote at all since they probably thought the primaries don't mean shit to them.

On one hand I know that the other 70% probably will not be voting for Trump at all but the other hand I'm mad these fools could've had Sanders still running and probably beaten Clinton.

So I'm going to say at least another un-voted 50% will vote democrat while all but 20% the republicans haven't voted during the primaries.


https://tinyurl.com/y4ba6hog

---------
"We in here talking about later career Prince records
& your fool ass is cruising around in a time machine
trying to collect props for a couple of sociopathic degenerates" - s.blak

  

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Brew
Member since Nov 23rd 2002
24376 posts
Wed May-04-16 07:58 PM

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65. "90%"
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You touched on all my reasons. I'm tired of the "it'll never happen" folks because they've been saying that since August and here we are.

On top of that Hillary is a terrible, pandering candidate and Trump is masterful at making people like her look like fools, which will unfortunately turn a lot of the dummy undecideds in his favor.

I'm obviously operating under the assumption that Hillary is the democratic candidate. If Bernie wins I actually lower that number down a bit, but maybe not much.

----------------------------------------

"Fuck aliens." © WarriorPoet415

  

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denny
Member since Apr 11th 2008
11281 posts
Wed May-04-16 10:29 PM

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66. "Trump will win by a landslide."
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The US economy will explode into new, unimaginable heights. The dollar bill will be re-named 'one Trump' and will be printed in multi-color so that his face can be orange. China will apologize and send billions of dollars back to the US just to make up for all the bad deals from the past.

  

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SooperEgo
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Thu May-05-16 09:04 AM

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67. "those saying trump has no chance are greatly underestimating"
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the stupidity of the american people and/or trump's manipulative abilities

  

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j.
Member since Feb 24th 2009
3819 posts
Thu May-05-16 09:31 AM

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69. "Univision and Telemundo are yelling Trump is the antichrist 24/7"
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He can forget about the latino vote
even Miami Cubans are backing away
(Cubans in general are the most wealthy of all latino groups and have been solidly repub since 59...but the generational split, obama's opening, and obamacare, have all cracked the wall)

Just like the rest of the voters, older people with more at stake (houses, careers, retirement, taxes) vote more than younger ones.

Guess what channels and programming older latinos watch?

  

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Case_One
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Thu May-05-16 09:31 AM

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70. "Trump is like that Chimpanzee with the AK47 - Unpredictable & Dagerous"
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I can't access YouTube at work and I'm to lazy to use my phone.
.
.
.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
44688 posts
Thu May-05-16 03:03 PM

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72. "This mutherfucka isn't trying to win this: "I love Hispanics!""
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Posing with a "taco bowl" on Cinco de Mayo.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-proclaims-cinco-de-mayo-i-love-hispanics-n568846

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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Numba_33
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Thu May-05-16 03:08 PM

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73. "At this point, I can't even get mad at him anymore."
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He wouldn't be pulling these insane stunts if folks didn't give him support and positive attention.

It's been impossible to pay attention to this election cycle because his popularity completely defies logic. Worse than the worse reality television show.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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veritas
Member since Sep 16th 2002
37201 posts
Thu May-05-16 09:18 PM

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75. "but check out what was underneath his taco salad"
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https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/728309799667044352

Hilarious

i still blame hip-hop.

  

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ConcreteCharlie
Member since Nov 21st 2002
71387 posts
Thu May-05-16 07:36 PM

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74. "Low 20s, I guess, seems arbitrary but he has a chance, sure"
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And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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