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Subject: "Is now the time to buy Microsoft stock?" Previous topic | Next topic
dapitts08
Member since Apr 03rd 2008
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Sun Feb-08-15 05:26 PM

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"Is now the time to buy Microsoft stock?"


          

I have been thinking about this for a few days after reading the Wired article about Satya Madella and his philosophy/culture for the company.

Specifically his thoughts on moving Microsoft towards being a company whose products work across any platform - even those controlled by competitors - to help people be more productive.

I recently started using microsoft outlook for my mail on my iphone and I must say I am impressed. Like some have written, it maybe the best email app out right now for ios.

And then you have all the buzz about Project HoloLens.

I'm wondering if this maybe a turning point for Microsoft.

What do you guys think?

the key to happiness is not being rich;
it's doing something arduous and
creating something of value and then
being able to reflect on the fruits of your labor

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
my kinda post!
Feb 08th 2015
1
yep. already peeped it.
Feb 08th 2015
2
      it's trading $8 off of a 10-year high
Feb 08th 2015
3
           your comment is exactly why i made this post.
Feb 08th 2015
4
           I'm in love with the dividends! - some big nose rapper
Feb 08th 2015
5
I'm curious, how much do you need to invest in some Microsoft
Feb 08th 2015
6
I too need this information.
Feb 08th 2015
8
Right today? $42.21 plus commission fees (let's say about 9 bucks)
Feb 08th 2015
10
can some one break stocks down for me
Feb 08th 2015
7
Lemme give it a shot. This will pretty much be a critique of stock picki...
Feb 08th 2015
9
      uh. r u thinking of shorts?
Feb 08th 2015
12
           The price at any time reflects all available information...
Feb 08th 2015
13
                price reflects current concrete #s & future forecast estimates
Feb 09th 2015
17
                     Think about it this way....
Feb 09th 2015
19
good time to get in for the dividends,
Feb 08th 2015
11
Satya is doing his best to stop piracy in its tracks...
Feb 08th 2015
14
Microsoft have been trying and failing to 'reinvent' themselves
Feb 09th 2015
15
Windows and Office are profitable enough to let them take chances
Feb 09th 2015
16
Yeah but this time without that A$$hole dummy Ballmer.
Feb 09th 2015
18
microsoft acquires sunrise
Feb 11th 2015
20

Binlahab
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182565 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 05:30 PM

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1. "my kinda post!"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MSFT

Do your research of course but id say its a buy

does it really matter?

wonder what bin's doing?
http://i.imgur.com/phECCMp.jpg

  

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dapitts08
Member since Apr 03rd 2008
8196 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 05:46 PM

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2. "yep. already peeped it."
In response to Reply # 1
Sun Feb-08-15 05:48 PM by dapitts08

          

i also forgot to mention in the OP that they also recently hired a new VP of design who was previously with Adobe and Nike. which seems like a good look as well.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-hires-michael-gough-corporate-140000476.html

but yeah just curious to see if other folks are starting to see microsoft in a new light as well. i have never looked at them as being innovative but my view is beginning to shift.

the key to happiness is not being rich;
it's doing something arduous and
creating something of value and then
being able to reflect on the fruits of your labor

  

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John Forte
Member since Feb 22nd 2013
15304 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 05:52 PM

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3. "it's trading $8 off of a 10-year high"
In response to Reply # 2


          

how high do you expect it to go? If you're gonna buy, buy for the long term. MSFT has a high floor and pays dividends all the time.

  

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dapitts08
Member since Apr 03rd 2008
8196 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 05:59 PM

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4. "your comment is exactly why i made this post."
In response to Reply # 3
Sun Feb-08-15 06:00 PM by dapitts08

          

my thoughts so far are purely based on what I am seeing the company doing and the shifts i perceive in their business model.

i was hoping folks who follow from a financial perspective, like yourself, to give their thoughts and input as well from the big picture perspective.

and yes, my thoughts are long term. not in and out.

the key to happiness is not being rich;
it's doing something arduous and
creating something of value and then
being able to reflect on the fruits of your labor

  

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Binlahab
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182565 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 06:13 PM

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5. "I'm in love with the dividends! - some big nose rapper"
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

And yes buy and hold like billy buffet


does it really matter?

wonder what bin's doing?
http://i.imgur.com/phECCMp.jpg

  

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Starks dunked on Bulls
Member since Dec 07th 2011
12028 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 06:24 PM

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6. "I'm curious, how much do you need to invest in some Microsoft "
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

stock?

How much do you need to get some real loot from it?

I never paid attention to stocks.

  

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Hitokiri
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Sun Feb-08-15 08:06 PM

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8. "I too need this information."
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

halp.

--
"You can't beat white people. You can only knock them out."

"There is only one god and his name is death. And there is only one thing we say to death: not today."

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
15011 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 08:36 PM

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10. "Right today? $42.21 plus commission fees (let's say about 9 bucks)"
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

You can scale that up by buying however many shares you want.
If you buy one share and the price moves up a dollar, your payoff will be $1.
If you buy 1000 shares and the price moves up a dollar, your payoff will be $1000.

Same works on the downside (i.e. if price falls buy a dollar you will lose $1000).

Those commission fees discourage tiny investments though.
If you buy just one share, you need the price to go up by about $9 for it to even begin being profitable for you.
But if you bought 1000 shares, a very tiny increase in price ($0.009) gets you in profitable territory

_______________________________________
You ain't the only one whose got problems. You ain't the only one who knows pain. Get up off your ass and just solve them. You still got a chance to try to change, try the shit again.
Devin tha Dude

  

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astralblak
Member since Apr 05th 2007
20029 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 06:52 PM

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7. "can some one break stocks down for me"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

in the barest, dumbest language possible

I'm so naive on what investing is, how to invest and what to invest in

would love some advice and knowledge, in particular pertaining to the OPs post

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
15011 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 08:27 PM

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9. "Lemme give it a shot. This will pretty much be a critique of stock picki..."
In response to Reply # 7
Sun Feb-08-15 08:28 PM by PimpTrickGangstaClik

  

          

This is going to very overly simplistic. No talk about risk, interest rates, and discounting which are all VERY essential.
I am against stock picking, so that viewpoint will color my description.
And I am not a financial advisor


A share of stock just represents ownership in a company. If you buy one share of Microsoft stock you literally own (albeit, a very tiny piece) Microsoft.
And as an owner you are entitled to a proportional amount of Microsoft's assets and profits.

That Microsoft stock only has value because they there is the assumption that they will payout some of their profits to the shareholders throughout the future. These profit payouts are called dividends.

Let's say OKP Corp is only going to be around for 3 years. And owners of OKP Corp stock will get a $3 payment (dividend) every year. What is the most you will be willing to pay for this today, i.e. what is the price today?
Well, it will be the sum of what you expect to receive from holding it: $3 + $3 + $3 = $9.

Now let's say expectations change and you expect OKP to be more profitable. And as a result, you think they will pay larger dividends ($4 per year).
So now the price will be $4 + $4 + $4 = $12.

If you bought the stock before expectations changed you would have a $3 profit on your investment.


Similarly the price of Microsoft's stock is just the sum of each of those expected dividend payments they will make in the future.
If you think the price is too low today, that means you think that people's expectations about Microsoft's future profits are too low (i.e. they are underestimating Microsoft's growth).


A problem with this thinking is that the price represents the market's expectations.
There are millions of investors out there (many of which are highly informed) buying and selling this stock to the point where the price you see in the newspaper represents the average of everyone's expectations for Microsoft's future performance.

By taking a stance and saying this is definitely a stock to buy, you are basically saying that I know something that no one else knows.
But all these analysts, researchers, and other investors have all the same info you have (and much, much more).
So instead what you are saying is that they are not interpreting the information properly.

At the end of the day, the price of Microsoft at any given time represents everybody's expectations about future dividends, given the current available information.
New information to come is just as likely to be good as it is bad.
And as a result, the price is just as likely to go up as it is to go down

*Stock picking is a coin flip*


_______________________________________
You ain't the only one whose got problems. You ain't the only one who knows pain. Get up off your ass and just solve them. You still got a chance to try to change, try the shit again.
Devin tha Dude

  

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Riot
Member since May 25th 2005
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Sun Feb-08-15 08:55 PM

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12. "uh. r u thinking of shorts?"
In response to Reply # 9


  

          

Buying stocks doesn't mean u think u have info no one else does

It means u expect the company to be more valuable at a future date. As a shareholder your shares will likewise increase in value


Ex- The expectation that apple is a good buy is based on the millions of existing iphone fans, current biz figures, forecasts of future earnings, etc


And tons of companies don't offer dividends



)))--####---###--(((

bunda
<-.-> ^_^ \^0^/
get busy living, or get busy dying.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Sun Feb-08-15 09:13 PM

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13. "The price at any time reflects all available information..."
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

The price right now represents what people think today about the future of the company.

With your Apple example, all investors (maybe I should say most) know all that stuff.
They read the reports, they looked at financial statements, announcements, analyst forecasts, etc. Everything you have access to has already been scoured over.
And based on all that information, the market has determined the value of the company is $118.

So you would trade at that price for two reasons.
1). If you think the market is wrong in their interpretation of that information. And keep in mind who is participating in these markets.
There are highly skilled institutions with resources devoted to finding mispriced companies.

2). You have information that nobody else has.


>
>And tons of companies don't offer dividends
>
The assumption is that these companies eventually will pay dividends. If they will never, ever, ever, ever pay a dividend, then the price will be zero

For example, Google has never paid a dividend in their history. But they will eventually when it becomes a better option to payout profits rather than reinvest back into the company

_______________________________________
You ain't the only one whose got problems. You ain't the only one who knows pain. Get up off your ass and just solve them. You still got a chance to try to change, try the shit again.
Devin tha Dude

  

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Riot
Member since May 25th 2005
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Mon Feb-09-15 10:13 AM

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17. "price reflects current concrete #s & future forecast estimates"
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

but every qtr, one data point moves from the estimated column to the actual

and the market reacts and share price adjusts accordingly


its disingenous to say stocks are a coinflip

or that the millions of investors in apple, etc all believe they have inside info or think the other {million-1} investors are wrong


especially against the backdrop of the overall longterm growth of the US economy

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart



)))--####---###--(((

bunda
<-.-> ^_^ \^0^/
get busy living, or get busy dying.

  

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PimpTrickGangstaClik
Member since Oct 06th 2005
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Mon Feb-09-15 02:14 PM

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19. "Think about it this way...."
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

If I asked you is the price of Apple going to go up or down tomorrow, what would you say?
If you could say either way with any degree of certainty, you would be a very, very rich man.

But in reality, it's just as likely to go up tomorrow as it is down.

The reason why is because the price today reflects everything we know today as well as what we expect for the future (given what we know today)
The only way the price will change tomorrow is if new info comes in that changes either the current situation or our expectations.

Any truly brand new information is just as likely to be better than expected as it is worse than expected.

If you can't predict price changes on a day to day basis, what makes you think you can do the same over a long time horizon?


>
>especially against the backdrop of the overall longterm growth
>of the US economy
>
>http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
>
>

Yes, you can see an upward trend in the growth of the US economy (and the Dow Jones).
But your investment performance will depend on the time period you happen to be investing in.

If you started investing in 1999 and bought and held the market (S&P 500), you are just now starting to make money again.

You can plug in different dates here and look at the cumulative returns for different investment windows and see how they would have performed
http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/

_______________________________________
You ain't the only one whose got problems. You ain't the only one who knows pain. Get up off your ass and just solve them. You still got a chance to try to change, try the shit again.
Devin tha Dude

  

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Riot
Member since May 25th 2005
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Sun Feb-08-15 08:38 PM

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11. "good time to get in for the dividends,"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

But The company's old business is "boring"
PCs dying off for phones and tablets


And the new businesses are going up against the other giants- apple, goog, fb


Id look at Any major growth after the run last year as just a bonus



)))--####---###--(((

bunda
<-.-> ^_^ \^0^/
get busy living, or get busy dying.

  

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Kira
Member since Nov 14th 2004
28288 posts
Sun Feb-08-15 09:14 PM

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14. "Satya is doing his best to stop piracy in its tracks..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

>I have been thinking about this for a few days after reading
>the Wired article about Satya Madella and his
>philosophy/culture for the company.
>
>Specifically his thoughts on moving Microsoft towards being a
>company whose products work across any platform - even those
>controlled by competitors - to help people be more productive.
>
>
>I recently started using microsoft outlook for my mail on my
>iphone and I must say I am impressed. Like some have written,
>it maybe the best email app out right now for ios.
>
>And then you have all the buzz about Project HoloLens.
>
>I'm wondering if this maybe a turning point for Microsoft.
>
>What do you guys think?

They have me, a Microsoft hater as a staff, record label, and a motherfucking care, considering Windows as an option. They're transforming into a mix of Apple and Microsoft. He's doing what his predecessors couldn't bring new people into the ecosystem without compromising Microsoft's brand. Microsoft faces intense competition outside of Windows. He made their productivity suite free on mobile which boosted subscribers elsewhere.

All I need him to do is bring some of those Microsoft products and services over to Xbone to convince me to buy one. Bring back the Zune while we at it.

  

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TheAlbionist
Member since Jul 04th 2011
3306 posts
Mon Feb-09-15 05:29 AM

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15. "Microsoft have been trying and failing to 'reinvent' themselves"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

For the last 15 years. Apart from XBox which they went to great pains to separate from the rest of the brand, it hasn't worked.

I'm very sceptical that they'll present a genuine worry to Google or Android in the mobile market.

Nobody's taking them in the business OS/licensing world and I feel like they should consolidate in this area rather than trying to get involved with more 'vital' markets that they've continually failed to grasp.

>I have been thinking about this for a few days after reading
>the Wired article about Satya Madella and his
>philosophy/culture for the company.
>
>Specifically his thoughts on moving Microsoft towards being a
>company whose products work across any platform - even those
>controlled by competitors - to help people be more productive.
>
>
>I recently started using microsoft outlook for my mail on my
>iphone and I must say I am impressed. Like some have written,
>it maybe the best email app out right now for ios.
>
>And then you have all the buzz about Project HoloLens.
>
>I'm wondering if this maybe a turning point for Microsoft.
>
>What do you guys think?

_______________________________

))<>((
forever.

  

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Cocobrotha2
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10673 posts
Mon Feb-09-15 07:19 AM

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16. "Windows and Office are profitable enough to let them take chances"
In response to Reply # 15


          

>For the last 15 years. Apart from XBox which they went to
>great pains to separate from the rest of the brand, it hasn't
>worked.
>
>I'm very sceptical that they'll present a genuine worry to
>Google or Android in the mobile market.
>
>Nobody's taking them in the business OS/licensing world and I
>feel like they should consolidate in this area rather than
>trying to get involved with more 'vital' markets that they've
>continually failed to grasp.

AS long as they protect and innovate in those businesses, they'll have the money to dabble in other things and maybe, someday, hit on the next big thing.

I wouldn't count on it, either, but the stock is worth considering for the stability and dividends alone.

<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->
<-><-><-><-><-><-><-><-><->

  

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Buddy_Gilapagos
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45533 posts
Mon Feb-09-15 11:14 AM

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18. "Yeah but this time without that A$$hole dummy Ballmer. "
In response to Reply # 15


  

          

What I'd really like to see is MS become the cool place for smart talented people to work.

Also want to see a Windows every platform OS that is worth a damn.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"One of the most important things in life is what Judge Learned Hand described as 'that ever-gnawing inner doubt as to whether you're r

  

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dapitts08
Member since Apr 03rd 2008
8196 posts
Wed Feb-11-15 05:12 PM

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20. "microsoft acquires sunrise"
In response to Reply # 0
Wed Feb-11-15 05:12 PM by dapitts08

          

http://thenextweb.com/microsoft/2015/02/11/official-microsofts-acquired-sunrise-calendar-app


the key to happiness is not being rich;
it's doing something arduous and
creating something of value and then
being able to reflect on the fruits of your labor

  

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