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foxnesn
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Thu Oct-30-03 03:49 AM

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"bad economy?"
Thu Oct-30-03 03:51 AM

  

          

U.S. Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Grew at a 7.2% Rate
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded at a 7.2 percent annual rate from July through September, the fastest in almost two decades, powered by surges in consumer spending and corporate equipment purchases, a government report showed.

The increase in gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, was the largest since the first quarter 1984 and more than double the 3.3 percent rise in the prior three months, the Commerce Department said in Washington.

Americans spent at the fastest pace in six years, using the windfall from lower income taxes and a record wave of refinancing to buy discounted automobiles and other merchandise. Such demand has spurred earnings at companies like Rohm & Haas Co., giving them the wherewithal to invest in equipment and hire, making for a sounder economic expansion.

``The consumer has been strong for a while, but it now looks like the worst is over'' for business investment, said James O'Sullivan, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York, before the report. Rising profits ``are a positive force for investment in the next couple of quarters and increasing confidence will trigger more hiring.''

Excluding the biggest decrease in inventories since the fourth quarter 2001, the economy was even stronger. Real final sales, which exclude the effects of inventory changes, rose at a 7.8 percent rate, the fastest since the second quarter of 1978.

Economists had forecast a 6 percent gain in third-quarter GDP, based on the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Adjusted for inflation, GDP totaled $9.797 trillion at an annual rate. Unadjusted for the change in prices, it breached the $11 trillion mark for the first time, reaching $11.038 trillion, and rose at a 9 percent annual rate. The price deflator used to adjust the figures rose at a 1.7 percent annual rate during the quarter.

Year-Over-Year

Gross domestic product grew 3.3 percent from the same quarter last year compared with a 2.5 percent year-over-year gain in the second quarter.

``We are beginning to see an improvement in the overall economic environment,'' Raj L. Gupta, chief executive officer of Rohm & Haas, said yesterday in a statement. Consumer purchases ``remain strong'' and ``there is some indication of a positive turn'' in business spending, he said.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, grew at a 6.6 percent pace last quarter, the most since the third quarter 1997, and compares with a 3.8 percent rate in the previous three months. Purchases have been on the rise since the first quarter of 1992, a record-breaking string of 47 straight quarterly increases.

$26 Billion

Households received an estimated $26 billion dollar boost in the third quarter from the government, according to research by economists at UBS Securities. The tax-cut plan that took effect in July was worth $12 billion during the period and the Treasury mailed out $14 billion worth of advanced refund checks to households with dependant children in late July and early August.

Business investment in equipment and software rose at a 15.4 percent annual pace, the fastest since the first quarter of 2000, following an 8.3 percent gain in the previous three months. Spending on construction of new factories and other buildings fell at a 2.4 percent annual rate. Total corporate spending rose at an 11.1 percent annual pace.

American businesses sold $23.8 billion more goods and services abroad last quarter and bought $300 million more items from foreign producers. That led to a $23.5 billion improvement in the trade balance, which contributed 0.84 percentage point to growth. A deterioration in trade subtracted 1.3 percentage points from growth in the second quarter.

The surge in demand depleted inventories. Stockpiles fell at a $35.8 billion annual rate, following a $17.6 billion drop in the second quarter, subtracting 0.67 percentage point from growth.

Automobiles

Government spending increased at a 1.3 percent annual rate, slower than the 8.5 percent pace in the previous three months.

The surge in consumer spending was led by a 26.9 percent annualized increase in purchases of automobiles and other durable goods. Spending on non-durable goods rose 7.9 percent and purchases of services rose 2.2 percent.

``It's been a real good year for us, and will continue into next year,'' said Timothy Manganello, chief executive of BorgWarner Inc. in a television interview with Bloomberg News on Monday.

BorgWarner, the world's largest maker of components for automatic transmissions, said third-quarter earnings rose 13 percent as demand for engine and four-wheel-drive systems increased. Sales grew 6 percent and Manganello said the company expects fourth-quarter earnings to rise to $1.65 to $1.75 a share compared with $1.52 in the year-earlier period.

Corporate Profits

Profits for the 373 members of the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly results as of yesterday rose 20.5 percent, on average, according to Thomson Financial. That's the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2000. Of those companies, 65.6 percent exceeded the average estimate. Third-quarter revenue is up 7.5 percent for the S&P 500 companies that have reported, according to Thomson Financial.

Philadelphia-based Rohm & Hass, the maker of Morton Salt and chemicals used in road paint, said that third-quarter profit rose 37 percent as sales increased 9.7 percent.

``We expect the economy to continue to recover in 2004,'' said William Zollars, chief executive of Yellow Corp. in an interview Friday. ``It will be a comprehensive recovery.''

Yellow, which is buying Roadway Corp. in a combination of the two largest U.S. trucking companies, said last week that third-quarter profit more than doubled as sales increased 13 percent.

Production

The drop in inventories will help the economy maintain some of its momentum this quarter even as consumer spending is expected to slow, said economist such as Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

``Producers, scared by the long period of slow growth and recession, have been extremely cautious,'' said Berner. That ``almost guarantees some catch-up now,'' he said. ``Even with a slower spending pace, the prospects for solid, sustainable growth are actually much better than at any point in the past four years.''

The economy is forecast to grow at a 3.8 percent annual pace this quarter and in the first six months of 2004, according to the median estimate of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month. The economy grew at an average 3.6 percent rate during the record expansion from 1991 to 2001.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of inflation watched by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other policy makers and tied to spending, rose at a 2.4 percent annual pace following a 0.8 percent gain in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE index rose 1.8 percent at an annual rate.

Fed policy makers voted unanimously this week to keep the target for the benchmark overnight bank lending rate at a 45-year low of 1 percent. The central bankers said the risk of ``undesirably'' low price increases is a ``predominant concern for the foreseeable future.'' They said they can keep the target rate low ``for a considerable period.''


  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
shhh!
Oct 30th 2003
1
*Chuckles*
Oct 30th 2003
3
Don't confuse them with facts.
Oct 30th 2003
5
RE: Don't confuse them with facts.
Oct 30th 2003
7
      RE: Don't confuse them with facts.
Oct 30th 2003
8
           "HOO-WA! I heard that." -- Al Pacino
Oct 30th 2003
10
why do you always...
Oct 30th 2003
13
But it IS pretty terrible.
Oct 30th 2003
14
RE: why do you always...
Oct 30th 2003
15
      the economy...
Oct 31st 2003
16
           It's not good
Oct 31st 2003
19
           mmkay...
Oct 31st 2003
20
                Now you're just being silly
Oct 31st 2003
23
                     besides...
Nov 03rd 2003
32
                     that depends on what your definition of 'is' is
Nov 04th 2003
34
                     162,000 job losses this quarter
Nov 05th 2003
37
                     ha ha
Nov 06th 2003
42
                     Are you concerned about the economy..
Nov 06th 2003
40
                     this just came out TODAY
Nov 06th 2003
38
                          so you're trumpeting the fact
Nov 06th 2003
39
                          Dude
Nov 06th 2003
41
           RE: the economy...
Oct 31st 2003
22
           RE: the economy...
Nov 03rd 2003
33
"One"...
Oct 31st 2003
24
Exageration
Nov 01st 2003
26
RE: *Chuckles*
Nov 01st 2003
27
Lemme get this straight,
Oct 30th 2003
6
where are the jobs though?
Oct 30th 2003
2
Not so fast my friend
Oct 30th 2003
4
ever heard the phrase...
Oct 30th 2003
11
Oh and by the way, that 7.2%
Oct 30th 2003
9
downturn on the US economy?
Oct 30th 2003
12
      Really now?
Oct 31st 2003
17
      Oh Yeah, Everything is just fine.
Oct 31st 2003
18
      RE: downturn on the US economy?
Nov 04th 2003
35
M2 has done an excellent job explaining this so-called
Oct 31st 2003
21
RE: bad economy? Uh, yeah!
Oct 31st 2003
25
RE: bad economy?
Nov 01st 2003
28
RE: bad economy?
Nov 01st 2003
29
Tell this shit to the unemployed.
Nov 02nd 2003
30
Can you answer this?
Nov 03rd 2003
31
RE: Can you answer this?
Nov 04th 2003
36

Expertise
Charter member
37848 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 07:07 AM

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1. "shhh!"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

You're not supposed to SAY that. They are supposed to think that the economy is the worst since the Great Depression. This will help them blind the masses into voting against Bush.

Besides, what does the truth have to do with this anyway?

Shhh!

"Then the idiot who praises with enthusiastic tone,
All centuries but this and every country but his own"
Gilbert and Sullivan, The Mikado

Check out my .

_________________________
http://expertise.blogdrive.com
http://twitter.com/KMBReferee
http://www.ask.fm/KMBReferee

  

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M2
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Thu Oct-30-03 08:55 AM

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3. "*Chuckles*"
In response to Reply # 1
Thu Oct-30-03 09:03 AM

          

Before one runs around claiming that the economy is good, great, strong or that we're in the midst of an significant, as well as sustainable economic recovery, one should consider where said growth came from as well as other economic indicators over the same time period.

The country LOST jobs over that time period, good/recovering economies create jobs, they don't destroy them. I won't even get into the long term effects of the trade deficeit, the increasing number of american jobs lost overseas, etc.

A good deal of the GDP Growth was powered by tax cuts and funds that people had from refinancing their mortgages, in fact, a great deal of the economic growth experienced by this nation over the last 2 or so years has precipitated by low interest rates, which led to a rise in the number of refinancings, as well as mortgages in general.

In other words, a significant portion of the GDP growth this past quarter was due to events that aren't particularly replicable for future quarters.

Business Inventories are supposedly low, so that will help 4th Quarter GDP numbers (as will the Christmas Season) as businesses increase spending and restock.

But what happens in 1st Quarter 2004 when the combination of taxation, mortgage refinancings and the temporary increase in business spending aren't providing economic stimulus?Particularly in an economic climate where we may still be losing jobs and the average debt load amongst consumers is rather high, which will undoubtedly lead to a consumer spending contraction, as people are forced to be more frugal, particularly after Christmas.

In other words, don't go around touting GDP numbers in a bubble without considering what they mean.

Particularly when large increases during an economic downturn are nowhere near as significnat as they are during an economic boom/time of economic strength.

In terms of an indication of overall economic strength, a 6% increase during a great time that isn't percipitated by economic factors that may reverse themselves (not be part of a future quarter's economic growth) is far more significant than a sudden blip during a downturn, that was mostly due to one time events or events that won't be in play the following quarter.

Sure, there are good things about the economy right now, but there are plenty of bad things to and to say that the economic recovery is sustainable or that the economy is "good" right now, is a bit of a stretch to say the least, particularly as we continue to lose jobs - and a sudden upswing in Job growth would have be sustainable over several quarters for the economy to completely recover.

If an economy loses a couple of a million jobs over the course of a few years and then has a sudden increase over ONE quarter that is the highest ever, it doesn't mean that you've recovered all of the jobs or that things are okay now.

Better yet, if your salary is cut by 50% going down to 20k from 40k. A 75% increase (15K) still doesn't put you back to where you used to be.

Claiming that people are putting forth the idea that the economy is weak only to fool the masses into not voting for Bush, is ludicrous in the face of the following:

Many of the "masses" are unemployed and the country has lost millions of jobs during his tenture.

There are plenty of conservatives who plan to vote for Bush who DO feel that the economy is weak.

There are plenty of significant economic indicators that show that there is plenty of weakness in the economy.

Claiming that there is nothing wrong and that it's merely a liberal trick, indicates a poor (but not surprising) understanding of economics/the current Business Climate.




Peace,








M2


The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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Battousai
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4386 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 11:25 AM

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5. "Don't confuse them with facts."
In response to Reply # 3


          

Let them have their fun. It's not often Libertarians have circle jerks on Activist.

--

Your San Francisco Giants: 4.26.2005 - 8.15.2005.

  

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HoChiGrimm
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Thu Oct-30-03 12:26 PM

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7. "RE: Don't confuse them with facts."
In response to Reply # 5


  

          

>Let them have their fun. It's not often Libertarians have
>circle jerks on Activist.

Puh-leeeeze. Neither one of these
jokers are liberatarians in the
classical, European sense.

U.S. "libertarians" are a frill.

----------------------------------------------------------

The Rand (Paul or Ayn) philosophy, putting private property rights at
the same level of human rights, equates the status of things with the
status of human beings. If property is considered equal

  

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Battousai
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4386 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 12:45 PM

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8. "RE: Don't confuse them with facts."
In response to Reply # 7


          

>Puh-leeeeze. Neither one of these
>jokers are liberatarians in the
>classical, European sense.
>
>U.S. "libertarians" are a frill.

Well, yeah. It's just I'm trying to be more civil nowadays. To be honest, I'd much rather call them "scum".

--

Your San Francisco Giants: 4.26.2005 - 8.15.2005.

  

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HoChiGrimm
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6247 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 01:00 PM

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10. ""HOO-WA! I heard that." -- Al Pacino"
In response to Reply # 8


  

          

.

----------------------------------------------------------

The Rand (Paul or Ayn) philosophy, putting private property rights at
the same level of human rights, equates the status of things with the
status of human beings. If property is considered equal

  

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foxnesn
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5240 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 05:23 PM

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13. "why do you always..."
In response to Reply # 3
Thu Oct-30-03 05:26 PM

  

          

put words in people's mouths? no one is saying the economy is fantastic. i posted this to offset the posts dealing with how terrible everyone seems to think the economy is.

  

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dhalgren718
Member since Jun 20th 2002
16992 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 06:00 PM

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14. "But it IS pretty terrible."
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

Part of this 'historic' jump in the economy was the >ahem< MONOLITH tax cut and housing refinance money. That's not going to affect long-term growth the way your ape-faced leader keeps saying. I mean, never mind that his deficiit spending is driving away international investmentors, or his ecological policy (which he termed 'economically friendly') has turned into screaming lawsuits from a number of states, or that he has spent the largest surplus in our nation's history.

None of that matters at ALL.

http://50yearsfromnow.blogspot.com
MONGO IS A RACIST PIECE OF SHIT.

  

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M2
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10072 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 06:11 PM

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15. "RE: why do you always..."
In response to Reply # 13


          

>put words in people's mouths? no one is saying the economy
>is fantastic. i posted this to offset the posts dealing with
>how terrible everyone seems to think the economy is.

1. I put words in people's mouths? Give examples.

2. Expertise claimed that people saying the economy is terrible are just part of some "liberal trick to fool the masses" when in fact, there is ample evidence to prove it is terrible, to claim that it is a trick, basically says that the economy is fine and that the people claiming it is terrible is wrong.

3. Offset? If you're not claiming the economy is good, how exactly is your post an offset? You're claiming that it is mediocre instead?



Peace,








M2

The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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foxnesn
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5240 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 04:01 AM

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16. "the economy..."
In response to Reply # 15


  

          

is good. its not fantastic, buts its not bad. im just tired of reading posts about people assuming because unemployment is at 6.1% that Bush has ruined the economy. the news about the GDP shows that consumer/govt and industry spending is up and inflation is of little risk right now. greenspan seems to have things under control. the market has been recovering over the past 8-10 months while the economy grows at a steady pace. i dont see how people can say these are signs of a 'bad' economy, do you?

  

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M2
Charter member
10072 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 06:46 AM

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19. "It's not good"
In response to Reply # 16


          

>is good. its not fantastic, buts its not bad. im just tired
>of reading posts about people assuming because unemployment
>is at 6.1% that Bush has ruined the economy. the news about
>the GDP shows that consumer/govt and industry spending is up
>and inflation is of little risk right now. greenspan seems
>to have things under control. the market has been recovering
>over the past 8-10 months while the economy grows at a
>steady pace. i dont see how people can say these are signs
>of a 'bad' economy, do you?

You just want to believe it is.

Every quarter that goes by, the country loses more and more jobs, good economies CREATE jobs, they don't destroy/lose them.

The GDP increase of the last quarter was largely due to consumer spending powered by mortgage refinancing (As in via borrowing money) and the tax cut, neither are sustainable in the long run - I explained this in great detail in post #3. Think of it this way, if your own personal spending power is temporarily boosted by borrowing some money from me, what happens to your spending power when you've spent it all, are in a lot of debt and have to start paying me back?

You spend less, that's what happens.

That's the situation a lot of consumers are going to find themselves in, to say that the consumer spending of the last quarter is sustainable a good sign, is a bit inaccurrate.

Additionally, people who just refinance their mortgages to get a lower rate without taking any equity out of their homes, or people who got "purchase money" mortgages to buy a first or 2nd home due to the lower rates, will have a positive impact on the GDP, BUT - again, as mortgage applications decrease, as interest rates begin to rise, said positive impact will decrease - so again, a GDP growth factor that isn't sustainable.

Automotive and associated industries have been seeing good sales in some cases, sure, but those sales are largely spurred by 0% APR offers and higher than normal rebates/incentives. Meaning that the deals are great for the consumer, as well as the suppliers of the automotive manufacturers, but not for the car makers themselves neccessarily, who have to do things that in a way artificially prop up sales, because it's better than lower sales in general.

Some industry spending has been the result of having no choice, if you reduce spending for multiple quarters, sometimes you have no choice but to upgrade equipment, stop going without, etc. The Article even said that a good deal of it was just due to companies playing catch-up. Thing is, is this spending temporary or sustainable? What happens after you play catch up, do you keep producing/spending or slow down again?

If you consider the tax cut, consumer spending (and the short term effect it has on industry spending) and take those things OUT of the GDP calculation because they're not sustainable and instead look at the GDP numbers in terms of sustainable growth, not one time "incidents" you'd see that it's no where near as high as it is now and in the end, it isn't that impressive.

Finally, consider this: Warren Buffet, for the FIRST time in Berkshire Hathaway's History - has purchased foreign currencies. Why is he doing this? Because due to various issues (Deficeit and the Economy being chief amongst them) the US Currency is Weak and we are actually facing a DEFLATION risk.

If you consider the facts and the context in which they fit in, you can say that there are good things ABOUT the economy, but not that the economy in general is doing fine/is good.

The US economy is extremely large and extremely diverse, there will always be good things about it and people making large sums of money, even in a prelonged recession. BUT, don't take those good things, not consider the context and proclaim that everything is fine.

When the economy starts to CREATE jobs as it has done every period of our nation's history when the economy was legitamately strong/good, THAN you can say that the economy is good.

People are complaining about the economy because it's weak right now, not because they're against Bush.

Finally - just don't throw around numbers (Consumer spending is up) without recognizing their context and the economic factors that are driving the numbers (Refinancing & Taxes), it prevents you from presenting a cogent argument on the subject of the economy.

There are plenty of pro-Bush/conservative economists who have grave concerns about the economy, this isn't a "Bash Bush, let me post some positive economic data to save my president" issue.

It's an economic one.

You're trying to sound more optimistic than some economists in the Bush administration! The most optimistic people in the article say that we're heading TOWARDs recovery, now that the economy HAS recovered.

Heading towards, means that the economy is still weak, but getting better - recovered means, the economy is good/strong and is no longer weak.


Peace,








M2

The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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foxnesn
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5240 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 11:27 AM

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20. "mmkay..."
In response to Reply # 19
Fri Oct-31-03 11:27 AM

  

          

ill just listen to you rather than buffet or greenspan...psft!

  

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M2
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Fri Oct-31-03 01:12 PM

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23. "Now you're just being silly"
In response to Reply # 20
Fri Oct-31-03 01:25 PM

          


Buffet has been HIGHLY critical of Bush on an economic basis, he was against both tax cuts AND thinks that the country at risk with respect to Currency Deflation, hence the reason he's invested in Foreign Currencies for the FIRST time in Berkshire's history!

I even pointed to that as a sign that the economy is weak in my previous post.

Greenspan has been critical of Bush as well and many conservatives have been bitching about the way Greenspan has been handling things for a couple of years now.

In general, your response made me laugh because Buffet and Greenspan's opinions on the economy are MUCH more inline with mine, than with yours or other conservatives claiming that the economy is good.

To say that Buffet thinks the economy is good or even strong is a joke, particularly when I've got a Fortune Magazine sitting on my desk with an article in it written by Warren and discussing weaknesses in our economy.

*chuckles*

Finally, if you've been paying attention over the last several months, you'd know that the person in Business I admire the Most........

......is Warren Buffet.

To say that I'm contradicting him is a joke.


Peace,







M2




P.S. That was funny - made my day.



The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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foxnesn
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5240 posts
Mon Nov-03-03 01:34 PM

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32. "besides..."
In response to Reply # 23


  

          

that we disagree on what the term 'good' means, would you say that the economy is heading toward a full recovery, say before the reelection compaign hits full gear?

  

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johnny_domino
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Tue Nov-04-03 05:52 AM

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34. "that depends on what your definition of 'is' is"
In response to Reply # 32
Tue Nov-04-03 05:52 AM

  

          

this is a hopeful sign, but to claim that "ok, now the economy's good", is bullshit, plain and simple. Have you ever studied economics?

  

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johnny_domino
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17027 posts
Wed Nov-05-03 04:40 AM

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37. "162,000 job losses this quarter"
In response to Reply # 34


  

          

preliminary figure, but if the labor dept statistics which will soon be released bear this out, it would represent a >100% increase in job losses from last quarter.

  

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40thStreetBlack
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26647 posts
Thu Nov-06-03 01:00 PM

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42. "ha ha"
In response to Reply # 34


  

          

good one.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"This will not stand, ya know, this aggression will not stand, man." - The Dude


<----- Long Live The King

  

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M2
Charter member
10072 posts
Thu Nov-06-03 12:46 PM

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40. "Are you concerned about the economy.."
In response to Reply # 32


          

>that we disagree on what the term 'good' means, would you
>say that the economy is heading toward a full recovery, say
>before the reelection compaign hits full gear?

........or people not taking Bad Economy Frustrations out on Bush?

Also, did you miss everything I said?

The GDP numbers for this past quarter and for the current one are going to be powered by largely one time issues - so the issue then becomes:

"Can the recovery that we're headed towards (not neccessarily in it) be sustained?"

As long as we're not in a recession and there is growth, we're headed towards a recovery, the issue is whether or not it can be sustained.





Peace,







M2

The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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foxnesn
Charter member
5240 posts
Thu Nov-06-03 07:42 AM

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38. "this just came out TODAY"
In response to Reply # 23


  

          

*guess you were wrong about jobless claims continuing to rise*

http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3769468

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits took an unexpectedly sharp plunge last week, reaching a level not seen since before the economy tumbled into recession in 2001, a government report showed on Thursday.

A separate report showed U.S. business productivity soared in the third quarter, suggesting little risk inflation will flare despite signs the economic recovery is on firmer ground.

Initial claims for state unemployment aid fell 43,000 to 348,000 in the week to Nov. 1 from a revised 391,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. It was the lowest level since late January 2001, two months before the recession began.

Stocks were poised to open higher on the data, which suggested an improvement in corporate profits and offered hope a jobs recovery may finally be at hand. Prices for U.S. Treasury securities fell sharply, while the dollar rose.

Economists had expected claims to slip to 380,000 from 386,000 -- a figure boosted by a grocery store strike in California -- initially reported for the week to Oct. 25.

"The large drop in claims ... confirms that firms have begun to hire and employment has turned up," said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets.

A spokesman for the department said he could not account for the big drop in claims last week, but said problems with seasonal adjustment of the data could be a factor.

"Every week we encourage (looking at) the four-week average. This is certainly one of those weeks," he said.

The four-week average, which smoothes weekly volatility to present a clearer picture of labor-market trends, fell 10,000 to 380,000 last week, its lowest level since March 2001.

Initial claims and the four-week average have been below 400,000 for five weeks. Economists see that level as a divide between an improving and deteriorating labor market.

PRODUCTIVITY SURGE

Last week, the government reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter, the strongest pace in nearly two decades.

Despite that, the economy shed 41,000 non-farm jobs as gains in productivity enabled firms to meet increased demand for goods and services without expanding their workforce.

The Labor Department said on Thursday non-farm business productivity climbed at an 8.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, accelerating from an upwardly revised 7.0 percent gain in the prior three months.

The increase reflected a rise in output that was the strongest in over 10 years, and only a small increase in the number of hours workers put in on the job.

The productivity gain pushed unit labor costs -- a gauge of potential wage pressures -- down at a 4.6 percent pace, suggesting a good quarterly performance for corporate profit.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an 8.5 percent gain in productivity and a 4.7 percent drop in unit labor costs.

Analysts say the recent productivity pace is unsustainably strong, and some said the fall in jobless claims suggested firms were finally having to hire to meet demand.

On Friday, the department releases its employment report for October. Financial market economists are looking for U.S. payrolls to rise 55,000 after a 57,000 gain in September. They expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.1 percent.

  

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johnny_domino
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Thu Nov-06-03 08:06 AM

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39. "so you're trumpeting the fact"
In response to Reply # 38


  

          

that unemployment claims are still going up (just not as much as they have been for the past year and a half)? We'll see what the figures say when they're actually released on Friday.

  

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M2
Charter member
10072 posts
Thu Nov-06-03 12:57 PM

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41. "Dude"
In response to Reply # 38


          


Lost 162,000 jobs last Quarter.

There have been several major layoff announcements in the last week.

This Quarter and next Quarter are more or less "Layoff Season" for employers, things could easily change.

I won't even get into the fact that this is the first time in history that this country emerged from a recession and didn't have immediate and strong job growth.

Or the fact that so many jobs have been lost that we're basically in a situation where they aren't that much more to lose, many people have given up on looking for work (effectively removing them from Unemployment statistics) people who have been employed so long that their benefits have ran out, despite multiple extensions, etc.

Or the fact that the predicted job growth in terms of creation of jobs hasn't happened yet.

If we're still losing jobs on the regular and new jobs aren't being created, the fact that initial unemployment claims have gone down is irrelevant.

If you have a local economy, with a workforce of 100,000 people and 30,000 people are laid off one year, 25,0000 the 2nd year, 15,000 the third year and then 5,000 the fourth year, leaving a workforce of only 25,000 with jobs and crushing the local economy as the number of employed people droppped by 75%, the fact that initial unemployment claims has dropped by 83% in the 4th year, doesn't change the state of your local economy or neccessarily mean things are getting better - if you're not creating new jobs for the 70,000 people laid off in the previous years and none of them are working.

In each year the number of initial jobless claims falls, BUT the economy is steadily getting worse since it's not creating jobs for the previously unemployed.

That's the situation this country is in now.





Peace,









M2

The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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HoChiGrimm
Charter member
6247 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 12:41 PM

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22. "RE: the economy..."
In response to Reply # 16


  

          

>greenspan seems
>to have things under control.

Yeah, Greenspan is doing
a bang-up job.

"Alan Greenspan, with the
backing of the other mone-
tarists who dominate todayís
economic discourse, incre-
ased interest rates to de-
flate the economy. It worked.
Unemployment rates began to
climb. Officially itís now
at 6.1% but that number masks
the huge number of people whoíve
simply given up looking. In
August, 93,000 jobs were lost
and now there are 2.1 percent
fewer workers on payrolls in
the U.S. than there were two
years ago, which doesnít even
take into account the needed
job growth to keep up with pop-
ulation increases." (Business
Week September 29)

Way to go, Alan.

----------------------------------------------------------

The Rand (Paul or Ayn) philosophy, putting private property rights at
the same level of human rights, equates the status of things with the
status of human beings. If property is considered equal

  

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ConcreteCharlie
Member since Nov 21st 2002
71344 posts
Mon Nov-03-03 07:22 PM

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33. "RE: the economy..."
In response to Reply # 16


  

          

bush hasnt ruined the economy single handedly but he has helped and his support of corporations and their assault on the american economy/society is worse than any "policy" move he has made.

i am telling you, its in the dumps, manufacturing jobs, say "adios;" people working harder for less money, yep, increasingly complicated sets of costs and necessitites, yep. the more levels we add to society, the more we head towards the point of diminishing returns and ultimate collapse. I am not saying Clinton didnt add to this himself, in fact his "solid" economic numbers reeked largely of the same rich-get-richer character, but Bush's are almost infinitely worse. i am telling you, he is looking after him and his rich buddies and pulling quick fix shit as a means of self service in terms of personal prosperity and bullshit numbers. The cat that posted about the induplicatable successes was on point.

Libertarians voting for Bush is a total joke too, they are just self-interested like true republicans, reagan democrats and other muck that I have to scrape off of the soles of my kicks.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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Expertise
Charter member
37848 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 09:50 PM

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24. ""One"..."
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

didn't claim that the economy was "great".

But it isn't as bad as leftists try to claim it is. If you listened to the media, you'd think people were selling apples for a penny again. That was my point.

Democrats and the media are quick to cite bad things about the economy, but rarely do they make mention of the good things.

"Then the idiot who praises with enthusiastic tone,
All centuries but this and every country but his own"
Gilbert and Sullivan, The Mikado

Check out my .

_________________________
http://expertise.blogdrive.com
http://twitter.com/KMBReferee
http://www.ask.fm/KMBReferee

  

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M2
Charter member
10072 posts
Sat Nov-01-03 06:30 AM

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26. "Exageration"
In response to Reply # 24


          


Please show me these Media Reports that show that the so called "leftists" are acting like we're in an economic climate as bad or near as bad as the great depression.

Particularly when the Media (IMO) is reporting both good and bad things about the economy, after all, where did you get that GDP report from?

Seems to me that you're stuck in your "liberal media" whining mode and are simply getting your panties in a bunch whenever the media says anything bad that could reflect negatively on Bush/Conservatives.

Finally - when the "Liberal Media" says things like: "The Job market is the worst it's been since WWII" - they're just reporting the facts. The reason people aren't selling apples for a penny as a result - is becuase we have a much stronger and diverse economy in 2003 than we did in the 1930s...(Obvious to anyone with knowledge about the economy)....but it doesn't change the fact.


Deal with it.










Peace,









M2

The Blog: http://www.analyticalwealth.com/

An assassinís life is never easy. Still, it beats being an assassinís target.

Enjoy your money, but live below your means, lest you become a 70-yr old Wal-Mart Greeter.

  

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Shinri
Member since Dec 04th 2002
1099 posts
Sat Nov-01-03 09:31 AM

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27. "RE: *Chuckles*"
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

My thaughts exactly ( for the most part).


Sam jackso escribe what
Marselis Wallace Looks like!

Brett:What?!?!

Sam Jackson: Say what again!Say
What Again!I dare you! I double
dare you motherfucka! Say what
one more goddamn time.

Brett: He's black.

Sam Jackson: Go on.

Brett: He's bald.

Sam Jackson: Does he look like a
bitch?

Brett: What!?!?

(gunshot)

Sam Jackson: Does HE Look Like
A Bitch?!?!

Brett: NOOooo!!!

Sam Jackson: Then why did you
try to fuck him like a bitch Brett?

Brett:I did'nt!

Sam Jackson: Yes You did! Yes
you did Brett. You tried to fuck
him. And Marselis Wallace don't
like to be fucked by anybody
except Mrs. Wallace.

Gamertag = SeppDigi
PSN ID = Seppuku Digital
AIM/Skype = Asanokyo
Ustream.com = Shinri

R.I.P. ErroSannin

  

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jackie chiles
Member since Jul 10th 2003
2178 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 11:38 AM

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6. "Lemme get this straight,"
In response to Reply # 1
Thu Oct-30-03 11:41 AM

  

          

Relentless job losses are a partisan trick to convince the masses that Bush is a bad president,

Not the deficit spending (which affect currency exchanges and reserves).

Not the unregulated offshoring of jobs and capital flight.

Not the assorted Corporate larcenies (Enron, Global Crossing, Tyco, Merrill Lynch) on a grand scale by right-wing associates and Bush contributors.

but one day of economic **recovery should be attributed to....Bush?

Your logic looks like a Texas congressional district.

LOL.

________________________________________________
King Street goes Yoruba - Osunlade
Diamond District - Oddisee, X.O. and Y.U.
The Ecstatic - Mos Def

http://www.myspace.com/jahsonic
Decipher Radio 89.3FM WPFW Was

  

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johnny_domino
Charter member
17027 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 07:34 AM

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2. "where are the jobs though?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

It's a hopeful sign for the economy, but until there's more job growth, you can't read too much into it.

  

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jackie chiles
Member since Jul 10th 2003
2178 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 10:59 AM

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4. "Not so fast my friend"
In response to Reply # 0
Thu Oct-30-03 11:07 AM

  

          

Don't pop the Moet just yet.

*********************************************************
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

Stocks Are Flat After GDP Rally

U.S. stocks clung near the unchanged mark late on Thursday afternoon after a rally spurred by surprisingly strong growth in the U.S. economy subsided.

The market spiked briefly in early trading after a report showed U.S. gross domestic product surged at a 7.2 percent annual rate in the July-September period -- its fastest clip in more than 19 years -- as consumers went on a buying spree. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a more modest 6 percent pace.


The major indexes then dipped as investors sold stocks at recent highs, questioning whether the high pace of economic growth is sustainable.
******************************************************

A few words for my right-wing friends:

This economy is weak. The job losses are structural and aren't coming back.

Record deficits are going to lead to a fiscal collapse.

War is costly. If we don't get help soon, we WILL run out of money and credit.

Your wishful thinking is not going to save you. If you post on this board, you are not part of the elite. Being their toady will not save you from the coming backlash to Bush's policies.

It is folly and cowardice to think otherwise, but then that's what I expect from Foxesn and Expertise.

~ One.

________________________________________________
King Street goes Yoruba - Osunlade
Diamond District - Oddisee, X.O. and Y.U.
The Ecstatic - Mos Def

http://www.myspace.com/jahsonic
Decipher Radio 89.3FM WPFW Was

  

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foxnesn
Charter member
5240 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 05:19 PM

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11. "ever heard the phrase..."
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

buy the rumor, sell the news?? probably not.

  

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jackie chiles
Member since Jul 10th 2003
2178 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 12:50 PM

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9. "Oh and by the way, that 7.2%"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

is annualized.

Meaning the actual growth this quarter was 1.8%. They projected that number over 4 quarters to arrive at their fuzzy 7.2%.

Most economists by the way, are predicting that it will be negative again next quarter.

This growth is just an uptick on an otherwise constant downturn in the US economy.

GOP Sycophants and fake libertarians rejoice!

________________________________________________
King Street goes Yoruba - Osunlade
Diamond District - Oddisee, X.O. and Y.U.
The Ecstatic - Mos Def

http://www.myspace.com/jahsonic
Decipher Radio 89.3FM WPFW Was

  

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foxnesn
Charter member
5240 posts
Thu Oct-30-03 05:21 PM

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12. "downturn on the US economy?"
In response to Reply # 9


  

          

have you been living in a cave? we've been outta the recession for quite sometime now...but you probably never read a business type periodical in your life so i forgive your ignorance in advance.

  

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jackie chiles
Member since Jul 10th 2003
2178 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 04:32 AM

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17. "Really now?"
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

That is why there has been a net job loss of 3.2million jobs since the moron took office.

That is why deficits are at a historic high...when interests rates go back up, and believe me, they will, they are going waaay back up. Think double digits.

High national debt load adversely affects currency exchange rates. We keep asking the Chinese to uncouple the yuan from the dollar. They aint' gonna do it. Too bad for us I guess.

But continue to live in your little fantasy world.

The economy is just fine. Record unemployment and deficits are just great for the economy.

Talk to me in about 18 months when the whole thing comes crashing down.

________________________________________________
King Street goes Yoruba - Osunlade
Diamond District - Oddisee, X.O. and Y.U.
The Ecstatic - Mos Def

http://www.myspace.com/jahsonic
Decipher Radio 89.3FM WPFW Was

  

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jackie chiles
Member since Jul 10th 2003
2178 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 05:57 AM

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18. "Oh Yeah, Everything is just fine."
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

U.S. Executives Still See Job Growth Lacking

(Reuters) Ė Corporate executives said on Thursday that job expansion and long-term business investment are still lacking.

"We're going to wait until I have orders in hand," said John Kispert, chief financial officer of KLA-Tencor Corp., a top manufacturer of equipment used in microchip production, in regards to hiring more workers and making new investments.

"Until we actually see real and sustained jobs growth, the fear will linger," said John Hancock Financial Services Inc. Chief Economist Bill Cheney.

AutoNation Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Mike Jackson, the head of the nation's largest auto dealership group, said employment will continue to lag, noting that "the consumer remains fragile and very value-oriented."

Consumer products maker Newell Rubbermaid Inc.'s president and CEO said the impact of cuts at large companies is still being felt. "There've been so many manufacturing closures and so many downsizing activities in Fortune 500 companies that I still think there's an impact there," said Joseph Galli. Newell Rubbermaid has closed 73 factories worldwide in the last 2-1/2 years. It said on Thursday it moved production from four factories to lower-cost countries, including China, during the third quarter.


________________________________________________
King Street goes Yoruba - Osunlade
Diamond District - Oddisee, X.O. and Y.U.
The Ecstatic - Mos Def

http://www.myspace.com/jahsonic
Decipher Radio 89.3FM WPFW Was

  

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TrUeSt_fAlSe
Member since Aug 01st 2003
43 posts
Tue Nov-04-03 06:13 AM

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35. "RE: downturn on the US economy?"
In response to Reply # 12


          

Facts

After every recession there has been a percentage of jobs gained.

1947---------> +16.9%
1951---------> +12.4%
1956---------> +6.3%
1959---------> +6.1%
1984---------> +8%
1992---------> +10.2%
2003---------> -1.1%

I'll let you guys do the math. Sometimes it's best to use a little common sense.

P.S invest in gold, Austrailian, new Zealand and Canadian bonds, they will soon become sronger against the U.S

"Don't be afriad your life will end,
be afriad it will never begin"

Grace Hansen

  

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HoChiGrimm
Charter member
6247 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 12:34 PM

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21. "M2 has done an excellent job explaining this so-called"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

"recovery".

But I'm gonna add on a bit
using a class analysis.

As Foxnesn has pointed out,
the economy has indeed recovered,
but it has been the very wealthy
who are benefiting the most from
this recovery.

Yet as GDP rises again, at a rate
of 5% this quarter, the economists
are talking about a ďjobless reco-
veryĒ ó the meaning of which was
explained in a recent Financial
Post article. ďThe total net worth
of Americaís richest people rose by
ten percent to U.S $ 995 billion this
year from 2002, according to Forbes
Magazines annual ranking of the count-
ries 400 wealthiest individuals.Ē (The
four hundred richest U.S. residents
wealth is now about the size of Canadaís
economy, the eight largest in the world).
In 2001/02 the 400 wealthiest people saw
a slight decline in their wealth, as was
the case for most of the population with
some 1.7 million people in 2002 that joined
the 34.6 million people living in poverty.
(WSJ September 29)

No matter that since the Ďrecoveryí started
in November of 2001 some 1.2 million more
people joined the dole lines and ďthe number
of people without health insurance shot up
last year by 2.4 million, the largest increase
in a decade.Ē (NY Times Sept 30) And, the past
twenty years of neoliberal attacks against soc-
ial entitlements such as welfare (the non-corp-
orate kind) unemployment benefits, and social
housing has made this unemployment crisis that
much more painful. Homelessness and hunger are
increasing, especially amongst the Black comm-
unity where the job loss rate has been even more
severe (On top of an unemployment rate that al-
ready doubled that of the white population.).

Yeah, guys, great economy we got here. Please.

----------------------------------------------------------

The Rand (Paul or Ayn) philosophy, putting private property rights at
the same level of human rights, equates the status of things with the
status of human beings. If property is considered equal

  

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Eli_B
Charter member
2440 posts
Fri Oct-31-03 11:30 PM

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25. "RE: bad economy? Uh, yeah!"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Still no job, unable to go to school because they're not taking transfer students or students that want to go for their second bachelors degree because of the budget deficit. On top of that, even if they did take more students, I probably wouldn't be able to afford to go to this school (San Francisco State Univ.) because next semester tuition is going up 94% (yes, tuition will almost double next semester) and if I was to go for a Masters degree, those usually cost more than a bachelors. Going to a nearby school, such as UC-Berkeley or USF is also out of the question, paying $6,000-$14,000 a semester, uh, no! It may be a "good" economy for people like Foxnesn and Expertise (so y'all just go and live off daddy's trust fund). I ain't seein' shit! Times are harder than ever, in my eyes.

"The devil crept into
heaven/God overslept on
the seventh/the New World
Order was born on
September 11th" - Immortal
Technique

  

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Pinko_Panther
Member since Dec 11th 2002
11808 posts
Sat Nov-01-03 02:30 PM

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28. "RE: bad economy?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

One quick point that I have not seen mentioned has to do with the fact that the spending on this war and illegal occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is economic activity. These wars, that really don't do anything for the average American citizen actually boost the GDP as well.

********************************************
"If you think you're too small to make a difference, try sleeping in a closed room with a mosquito."

  

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ConcreteCharlie
Member since Nov 21st 2002
71344 posts
Sat Nov-01-03 03:39 PM

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29. "RE: bad economy?"
In response to Reply # 28


  

          

Any type of "economic growth" under bush and even clinton has pretty much been bullshit. take a look around you and then ask who is benefitting? rich folks

"tell me who profits?
DC got schemes!...
but we aint got spit!"
-SOM

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

  

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chasinanothertrane
Member since Aug 16th 2003
1072 posts
Sun Nov-02-03 04:53 AM

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30. "Tell this shit to the unemployed."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

See whether they agree or not.

"The revolution will not be apologized for."
-Aesop Rock

"Came to save the game like a memory card."
-MF Doom

"The revolution will not be apologized for."
-Aesop Rock

"The best MC with no chain you ever heard."
-MF Doom

  

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aisflat439
Member since Aug 27th 2003
142 posts
Mon Nov-03-03 09:37 AM

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31. "Can you answer this?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

What does that figure 7.6 percent mean in terms of dollars. I realize that it is spread out between 4 quarters or whatever but...
Here is what I'm curious about. The economy had more money moving around in it right? Thats what GDP is all about right? How much money? Then, how big was the tax cut? And does Gov't spending in the wars that we are fighting account for this growth to?

As an aside NO real libertarian would vote for Bush. Go out and read if you think you are a Libertarian and would vote for Bush. He is not a believer in balanced budgets or free market values he bails out airlines sends his dogs the IRS out after people who make less than 150 G's and doesn't put the Enron cats in jail, and he's a fiscal nincompoop. There are many alternatives to Bush, that fit within the libertarian mindset. They don't get the press coverage sure, but a vote for bush is a vote against liberty and if your a libertarian you know it. Libertarians are thinkers, people who vote Bush are followers, its a shame some of you call yourselves libertarians when really your just puppies.

  

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jackie chiles
Member since Jul 10th 2003
2178 posts
Tue Nov-04-03 12:14 PM

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36. "RE: Can you answer this?"
In response to Reply # 31


  

          

http://www.moneychimp.com/glossary/gdp.htm

Total annual output of the U.S. economy, measured by its final purchase price.
GDP is divided into four categories, according to the final purchaser:


GDP = Consumer Spending
+ Business and Residential Investment
+ Government Spending
- Trade Deficit.

(See the interactive GDP Diagram.)

The gross domestic product includes enough sub-components that just looking at trends in the bottom line GDP number can give you a misleading idea of what the economy is actually doing. One example: if a retailer successfully sells a product, the sale will count toward "consumer spending" at its retail price; if the retailer fails and the product bloats its inventory, it will count toward "business investment" at its wholesale price (i.e. the price the retailer paid for it). Later, when the retailer works off the bloat, the decline in inventory will contribute a negative number toward business investment, officially lowering GDP. In other words, the GDP calculation can make the start of a recession look better, and the recovery stage look weaker, than they really are.


________________________________________________
King Street goes Yoruba - Osunlade
Diamond District - Oddisee, X.O. and Y.U.
The Ecstatic - Mos Def

http://www.myspace.com/jahsonic
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