While Bottas is having a better season than he did last year, he still has had some unfortunate race instances that caused him to lose out come race day. He's got two wins (same as Max, BTW), though early in the season, and has looked great on quali. His results on track should keep Mercedes well out of any trouble of losing the Constructors, but on the Driver's cup, that gap has shrunk quite a bit to Max.
The question then becomes what does Petronas want out of Bottas? He's not the heir apparent to Hamilton, and I doubt anyone remotely thinks that. Can he challenge Hamilton for the Driver's cup? Better still, do they need or want him to? In Bottas they have a very good young(ish) driver that your star driver has a decent working relationship with (unlike the Rosberg situation) who can bring the car home with enough points in the constructors to win for the team. Until Lewis shows any sign of dropping off, what else do you need?
Then consider the future, short and long term. Is Ocon better than Bottas? Better still, would Ocon give Hamilton any more challenge than Bottas does? Not sure on either, so I wouldn't make a switch mid season. I think Bottas has done enough so far to keep the seat. That said, I wouldn't talk contracts over the summer either. Let the second half play out and see what Bottas can manage, then decide if signing Ocon to the seat is a good idea. I'm sure Ocon doesn't want to stay waiting in the wings, but I don't feel the urgency to make a change right now. Pressure would now be on Valtteri to have a better 2nd half.
Long term, George Russell may be the guy Mercedes is tapping. But they are not going to promote him quickly. Let him cut his teeth at Williams (yes they suck, but he's still showing promise), hone his craft a bit before bringing him up. No need to burn the young driver out before he's ready.
As for Gasley? I'll be surprised if he keeps that seat over Albon or Kvyat. Like Bottas, he has the unfortunate task of driving alongside a phenom of a teammate that he's not as good as, nor will be. That said, the gap between Lewis and Valtteri is smaller than the gap between Max and Pierre. Even if Gasley would ultimately end up 6th out of the top 3 teams (Mercedes, RB, Ferrari), he's closer to 7th (gap between him and Sainz is only 5 points) than 5th (gap between him and LeClerc is a whopping 69 points). Had Gasley stepped up RB could have jumped Ferrari in the Constructors by now. They very well may have promoted him too soon. Whether Marko and Horner admit they made a mistake and demote him to Toro Rosso or not seems more a when than if. On the other hand, they did that to Kvyat and it took a few years for him to recover, and Albon may not make the huge leap that Max did when he got Kvyat's seat. Whatever the case, something needs to change.
TL;DR - Bottas may be safe for now. Gasley, not so much.
<-- Dave Thomas knows what's up...
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