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Subject: "The pros and cons of Shohei Ohtani in fantasy (espn insider swipe)" Previous topic | Next topic
kinetic94761180
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Mon Dec-11-17 10:47 PM

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9. "The pros and cons of Shohei Ohtani in fantasy (espn insider swipe)"
In response to In response to 8
Mon Dec-11-17 10:47 PM by kinetic94761180

  

          

(to answer my question, espn hasn't yet decided how scoring will change or if there will be changes atall)

Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer

Shohei Ohtani has incredible potential as a two-way MLB player, but how should fantasy players value him ahead of the 2018 season?
There’s every reason for Los Angeles Angels fans and fantasy managers to be intrigued and excited about Japanese import Shohei Ohtani due to the endless statistical possibilities. The problem is many of these possibilities for the 2018 season seem unrealistic. A Cy Young-caliber starting pitcher and an awesome, middle-of-the-order power hitter all in one player? Where do I sign up?

Fantasy managers want to rewrite the rules on how such a player could alter the sport. Hey, I’m as optimistic as the next person, but when someone asks me how to value the newest Japanese import for double duty, something unprecedented in modern baseball, my answer is pretty simple: It won’t be me finding out.

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As colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft informed with expert aplomb, Ohtani, 23, has to overcome several hurdles to warrant the lofty attention and list of comparable options he’s getting. One, he needs to stay healthy, no small feat considering he missed most of last season with ankle and hamstring injuries. Two, the Angels actually need to present him substantial at-bats to make it worth any fantasy manager’s while to consider him an asset on the hitting side, and then Ohtani has to prove he can hit like an everyday option. This sport isn’t exactly easy, you should know.

Ohtani is a potential ace hurler but hasn’t shown durability, and at the plate he hasn’t faced top pitching on any consistent basis. Frankly, I’m just viewing him as a pitcher and he should be a good one, as Cockcroft notes, capable of high strikeout totals and solid run-prevention tools. It’s a sloppy comparison based mainly on where they come from, but Yu Darvish comes to mind as a comparison. Darvish strikes hitters out and has had varying degrees of success in staying healthy and suppressing runs. Darvish also came to the Texas Rangers ready for 200 innings of work. Ohtani has never approached this figure and the Angels haven’t shared much on how they intend to use him. Will he get as many as 150 innings?

In an era in which 200-inning pitchers are becoming more rare by the season -- only 15 pitchers made it in 2017 -- fantasy managers should indeed lower expectations for volume in general, without missing out on upside. It is certainly possible Ohtani is special and dominates a new league of hitters for 25-plus starts, which would perhaps land him among the top-10 fantasy pitchers. Let’s grant that is plausible. Darvish didn’t do that in his first MLB season, though. His ERA was 3.90 and he didn’t carry the physical burden of hitting on even a semi-regular basis.

Cockcroft’s current top-300 rankings for 2018 lists fellow right-handers Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole and Aaron Nola as top-20 caliber pitchers, and each is a more proven, statistical commodity, and two of them and perhaps three -- Arrieta is a free agent, as of Monday -- pitch in the National League. Moving further down the rankings Kyle Hendricks, Jose Berrios and countryman Masahiro Tanaka are top-30 options. I agree with Cockcroft that Ohtani belongs in this class of fantasy assets based on the strikeout upside, and I’m more willing than perhaps ever to take chances on starting pitchers likely to fall short of even 175 innings, but obvious question marks remain.

Angels manager Mike Scioscia claims Ohtani will earn every chance to contribute at the plate and perhaps that’s even possible, but this is hardly a manager known as an out-of-the-box thinker. Ohtani would need to serve as the team’s designated hitter, which pushes statue-like Albert Pujols to first base. Perhaps Scioscia doesn’t think such a move will harm the defense. Perhaps he also couldn’t give a hoot about analytics and how they’re helpful. Ohtani might out-hit Pujols -- not a high bar there -- but it’s unlikely he gets the chance on a regular basis. And as Keith Law noted, Ohtani is far from a guarantee at the plate.


It’s exciting that Ohtani went against conventional wisdom in not only rushing to the major leagues -- and costing himself literally millions of dollars in the eager process -- and in choosing the organization that he did, but reaching up to the fifth or sixth round for a pitcher that only might stay healthy and seems unlikely to provide hitting value seems silly to me. Yes, Ohtani is the new prize for fantasy managers to dream about and there’s always going to be someone in a league willing to pay up for the hotshot rookie that hasn’t failed yet in the major leagues. Ohtani could be great. He could throw an amazing 175 innings and hit like an All-Star, in theory.

I just find it dangerous to rely on theories when selecting options for fantasy teams. How many other hitters with little promise of regular at-bats are you targeting? How many starting pitchers that have yet to approach 170 innings are you targeting? And while ESPN hasn’t announced how such a player will or even can be handled for fantasy purposes, it’s kind of irrelevant for me. Let someone else pay too much in a draft or auction for a pitcher -- not a hitter -- that hasn’t earned a top-100 spot yet. Frankly, I can’t wait to see him pitch and hit, but the former remains far from guaranteed and the latter is, taking context of volume into account, mostly a dream at this point.

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Ohtani Posting Watch [View all] , ShawndmeSlanted, Fri Nov-10-17 10:17 AM
 
Subject Author Message Date ID
my rangers are such a mess
Nov 11th 2017
1
Angels...wtf
Dec 08th 2017
2
WC team that made a late push + he can DH. Makes sense
Dec 08th 2017
3
Mariners dodged the bullet. They wanted to get shot so bad.
Dec 08th 2017
4
They did make a trade yesterday so not completely dodged
Dec 08th 2017
5
He just committed career suicide
Dec 09th 2017
6
what's this mean for fantasy baseball?
Dec 09th 2017
7
I think they should make two separate players
Dec 09th 2017
8
     
After a rough spring
Apr 01st 2018
10
I was there for two of the four games
Apr 01st 2018
11
his splitter is nasty
Apr 02nd 2018
12
3 run blast in his first at bat at home
Apr 03rd 2018
13
Damn ...hit another one off Kluber
Apr 04th 2018
14
you don't want to get too excited, but it's hard not to
Apr 04th 2018
15
      See what happens after they get a good look at him
Apr 05th 2018
16
      nvm. get hype. Shohei Electronica out here
Apr 07th 2018
17
           I’m reminded of Puigs start
Apr 07th 2018
18
                Just saw this post and his 3 homers
Apr 09th 2018
30
Wish the Phillies took a shot at this guy
Apr 07th 2018
19
perfect through four in his home opener-
Apr 08th 2018
20
through five-
Apr 08th 2018
21
      through six-
Apr 08th 2018
22
           prob done after 7.
Apr 08th 2018
23
                RE: prob done after 7.
Apr 08th 2018
24
12 Shuckey Duckeys and only one Quack Quack.
Apr 08th 2018
25
RE: 12 Shuckey Duckeys and only one Quack Quack.
Apr 08th 2018
26
RE: Otani Posting Watch
Apr 08th 2018
27
.
Apr 08th 2018
28
Shohei Hobbs
Apr 09th 2018
29
Funny you should mention Hobbs...
Apr 13th 2018
35
Even Otani no match for the GOATGOD
Apr 12th 2018
31
Back in the lineup as a hitter last night
Apr 12th 2018
32
Wants to play more:
Apr 12th 2018
33
RE: Otani Posting Watch
Apr 12th 2018
34
Starting in 38 degree Kc today.
Apr 15th 2018
36
PPD'd
Apr 15th 2018
37
      Should be fun, vs the Red Sox
Apr 15th 2018
38
Can't wait to see this guy in person
Apr 15th 2018
39
RE: Can't wait to see this guy in person
Apr 15th 2018
40
Ohtani vs Price the two best teams to start the season in the AL
Apr 17th 2018
41
Rough 1st he struggled with control
Apr 17th 2018
42
      Only got 2 innings today
Apr 18th 2018
43
GOAThani got shelled...which is fine bcz hes hitting 2 Hr next game
Apr 18th 2018
44
No decision outing vs the Stros last night
Apr 25th 2018
45
Severino? Check
Apr 27th 2018
46
damn, im still the only one on this board
May 14th 2018
47
Those first three innings were disgusting
May 14th 2018
48
4-1
May 20th 2018
49
Stupid rain started falling just as Ohtani was really getting hot
May 30th 2018
50
right before the rain he threw this 101.1 MPH fastball
May 31st 2018
51
UGGGGHHHHH
Jun 08th 2018
52
TJ seems inevitable.
Jun 08th 2018
53
yea i wonder what happened for both
Jun 08th 2018
54
he's back we're back
Jul 10th 2018
55
1st Japanese player to hit for the cycle
Jun 13th 2019
56
Swing from the gods.
Jun 30th 2019
57
I guess I can also post here so I don’t spam the baseball one lol
Apr 27th 2021
58
Good short piece on his developing Swag
Apr 27th 2021
59
He's in the lineup tonight
Apr 27th 2021
60
Slow week for the SHO after Monday and Tuesday
May 03rd 2021
61
Ohtani’ pace. This has to be an auto MVP no?
May 08th 2021
62
The hitting pace has dipped but the pitching pace has gone up
May 17th 2021
63
lol
May 17th 2021
64
      RE: lol
May 18th 2021
65
It’s Ohtani day- don’t make me Bam up that degrom post
Jul 03rd 2021
66
Let that shit ride for now...but that hr in Camden Yards...Gatdammy.
Jul 05th 2021
67
      RE: Let that shit ride for now...but that hr in Camden Yards...Gatdammy.
Jul 05th 2021
68
not to be hyperbolic, but is dude the GOAT?
Jul 05th 2021
69
**placeholder for all stahs 388488 word, scrappy doo boitlickin diatribe...
Jul 05th 2021
71
Somebody's getting a raise.
Jul 05th 2021
70
RE: Somebody's getting a raise.
Jul 05th 2021
72
      If they wait until 2024...come on.
Jul 05th 2021
73
Shohei Ohtani Isn't Babe Ruth—He's Better (SI Swipe)
Jul 10th 2021
74
A bump for the G-O-D
Aug 18th 2021
75
Korea's Won Bin Cho is negotiating with 4 teams
Aug 19th 2021
76
I’m not sure I can register what this means
Aug 19th 2021
77
      I don't think he pitches but apparently he's like 10 years younger...
Aug 20th 2021
78
      He's 17.
Aug 20th 2021
79
           lol and yea ohtani is 27
Aug 20th 2021
80
      Looks good
Aug 21st 2021
81
He got me somewhat interested in baseball again. Incredible season.
Oct 04th 2021
82
🐐- ani
Apr 12th 2023
83
LOL...he dropped a gem on em, yesterday...
Apr 12th 2023
84
as someone who knows nothing except about the Nats...
Apr 12th 2023
85
i think it's pretty simple.
Apr 12th 2023
86
In the words of the great American poet Marshall Mathers...
Apr 12th 2023
87
RE: In the words of the great American poet Marshall Mathers...
Apr 12th 2023
88
      And let that team be the Mariners.
Apr 12th 2023
89
           Sadly, Nintendo has t owned Seattle in about 20 years
Apr 12th 2023
90
           it was joke cuz no one really knows who owns them.
Apr 12th 2023
93
           RE: And let that team be the Mariners.
Apr 12th 2023
91
                i think that's what he's doing every time we play them.
Apr 12th 2023
94
There is this thing called pitching!
Apr 12th 2023
92
https://twitter.com/matttomic/status/1394498097254965249
Jun 10th 2023
96
How Shohei Ohtani has gotten even better as a pitcher (ESPN+ swipe)
Jun 10th 2023
95
Yea I’m not the biggest follower of baseball
Jun 14th 2023
97
Man he’s on a tear right now.
Jun 14th 2023
98
Oh and I forgot hot took the AL he lead in that double HR game
Jun 14th 2023
99
Fine, I'll take post 100 too and keep talking to myself, assholes lol
Jun 15th 2023
100
I've gone to a ton of his starts the past three years
Jun 22nd 2023
101

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