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that's why i say they're a contender, along with maybe 4 or 5 other teams w/ a realistic shot. but there are a lot of ifs that people are just glossing over. and again, next summer the same people picking them now will be acting like this stuff was obvious to them all along.
as currently constituted, i don't know that this team is as good on the court as it is on paper. you generally need to be a top 10 team in both ends to win a title. since the '76 merger, i believe only 4 teams have won it all w/o a top 10 Off, and 2 w/o a top 10 Def. it's not either/or, you really need to excel at both. cleveland should almost certainly finish in the top 3 or so offensively, but i can't envision them being able to field even a league avg defense w/ their current personnel.
they've got an inexperienced coach. david blatt has never coached in the nba, and never coached a postseason series (the cup competitions in european basketball are single elimination knockout tournaments, like march madness, so blatt's never had to beat the same team 4 times, or make adjustments on the fly after a loss w/ little turnaround time)
none of their young rotation guys (love, irving, thompson, waiters) have played a single postseason minute.
all of their supporting guys are on the declining side of their careers, and could fall off a cliff at any minute. at the start of the 2015 playoffs, anderson varejao will be 32, james jones will be 34, mike miller and brendan haywood will be 35, shawn marion will be 37, and ray allen (assuming he's signed) will be 39.
their defense is probably going to be awful. last season, there were 77 players who defended at least 5 shots per game at the rim. ranked in order of fg% allowed on those shots (http://tinyurl.com/nexl9fo) varejao was 64th, love was 74th and thompson was 76th. they have no rim protection whatsoever.
they aren't the healthiest bunch. over his 3 season career, kyrie irving has averaged ~60 games played per year. kevin love has averaged about the same over 6 seasons. and over the last 4 seasons, anderson varejao has played ~36 games per year. that's 3 starters. there's a very real possibility that their top 2 centers, varejao and haywood, are both watching the playoffs in suits.
and yeah, lebron is lebron, but in the first quarter of the first game of the 2014-15 season, he's going to pass 40,000 career minutes. he was also pretty bad on defense last year (http://regressing.deadspin.com/no-its-not-just-you-lebron-really-has-been-bad-on-de-1561440624) and he's never played with a ball dominant PG in his life. that'll require adjustment.
they'll contend, but no one should be surprised when they don't win it all in year 1. now, next season? after their youngins have taken some playoff lumps and gotten some big-game reps under their belts, and after the FO has had another offseason to spackle in some of the crevices? (they'll likely have the full MLE, the BAE and 2 1st rounders at their disposal next summer)
then, yeah, i think they can be special. but this season, i'm expecting some growing pains. in addition to the tangible flaws mentioned above, things like chemistry and continuity also matter, and they don't develop overnight.
just my $0.02
>but given that Bron and the Heat were close to a title in his >first year in Miami - it's not at all implausible. I do think >this team >will be better than what we saw in Miami. > >To most detractors - it's "title or clown" - but obviously >realistic >people will expect some struggles before the team gels. > >I'm predicting 3 more titles in Cleveland for Bron and >company.
certainly possible. they're putting a very strong team together. ___
it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes
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